June 2016

Monthly Forecast

1 In Hindsight: Voting for Overview a Secretary-General 3 Status Update since our May Forecast During France’s presidency of the Security Coun- • Mali, the renewal of MINUSMA; 5 Security Council cil in June, there will be two open debates, one • Somalia, the renewal of AMISOM’s authorisa- Elections at ministerial level on the issue of protection of tion after last month’s short, technical rollover; 6 Protection of Civilians civilians in the context of peace operations and and another with a focus on women, peace and securi- • Sudan, the renewal of UNAMID and the semi- 8 Women, Peace and Security ty, particularly on the Secretary-General’s annual annual briefing by the ICC Prosecutor. report on conflict-related sexual violence. Council members will continue to monitor 9 Libya There will also be three briefings, one on UN developments on the Syria political, humanitar- 11 International Criminal counter-terrorism efforts against the Islamic ian and chemical weapons tracks and the Yemen Tribunals State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL); another on peace talks. Other Middle East issues that will be 12 Counter-Terrorism post-conflict peacebuilding; and one on UN-EU considered this month are: 14 Sudan (Darfur) cooperation. • Golan Heights, the renewal of UNDOF; and 15 UNOCA/LRA The Council will be closely following develop- • Israel/Palestine, the regular monthly briefing. ments in Burundi and Western Sahara, and may The Council will meet on UNAMA in Afghan- 17 UNRCCA (Central Asia) consider the strategic review of the UN Multi- istan as well as on the activities of UNRCCA in 18 Mali dimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Central Asia. 19 Syria the CAR in June, though no formal meetings are The Council’s semi-annual debate on the ad 21 Yemen scheduled. There will be discussions on several hoc international criminal tribunals, including the other African issues this month, some ahead of ICTY and the Residual Mechanism for Interna- 23 Afghanistan mandate renewals, others updates on activities, tional Criminal Tribunals, will be held in June. 25 UNDOF (Golan Heights) including: Finally, Council members will also be fol- 26 Democratic Republic of • Central Africa, the regular meeting on the lowing developments on the peace process in the Congo activities of UNOCA; Colombia. 28 Notable Dates • Democratic Republic of the Congo, the renew- The General Assembly is scheduled to elect al of the 1533 sanctions regime; five non-permanent Security Council members • Libya, the renewal of UNSMIL and an update on 28 June. on the 1970 sanctions regime;

In Hindsight: Voting for a Secretary-General

The Security Council is beginning to turn its nominated, and further hearings are expected in attention to the task of selecting the next Sec- early June. The activity in the General Assembly retary-General. In contrast to previous appoint- appears to have prompted Council members to ments, following the adoption of General Assem- begin informal discussions on the next steps for bly resolution 69/321 on 11 September 2015, the Council in the Secretary-General appoint- and the 15 December 2015 joint letter from ment process. 31 May 2016 the Council and General Assembly presidents, The UN Charter provides little guidance on This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. a more clearly defined process of nomination the process. Article 97 of the UN Charter sim- is in place this year, along with greater involve- ply says that “The Secretary-General shall be For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please ment of the General Assembly. In mid-April, the appointed by the General Assembly upon the rec- subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” General Assembly held three days of hearings ommendation of the Security Council”. Rule 48 series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. with the nine candidates who had been formally of the Provisional Rules of Procedure states that

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Voting for a Secretary-General (con’t) the Council’s recommendation to the Gen- 16 inconclusive ballots. Finally, Ambassador then Under-Secretary-General for Peace- eral Assembly “be discussed and decided at Olara Otunnu (Uganda), who was Council keeping, and Amara Essy (Côte d’Ivoire) each a private meeting”. There has therefore been president in December, persuaded the two received a high number of favourable votes. A room for innovation in how this recommen- candidates to step aside and devised a way to second round, held on the same day, where dation is arrived at. Only on one occasion determine which new candidates would not colour-coded ballots were used, revealed that was the Council unable to agree, culminat- be vetoed by any of the P5. The permanent a permanent member, generally believed to ing in the General Assembly voting to reap- members were given a blue survey form with be France, was opposing Kofi Annan, and two point Secretary-General Trygve Lie (Norway) a list of nine new candidates and asked to other permanent members opposed Essy. The without a Council recommendation. indicate which ones they would “discourage”. veto against Annan was sustained until—after A key step in the process is the establish- All 15 members were given a white form with seven rounds of straw polls—Annan had the ment of a list of candidates. In the past, the the list of names and asked to indicate which support of all fourteen other members, and genesis of the list of candidates was quite candidates they would “encourage”. Using the veto was then dropped. opaque. The first three Secretaries-General— this system the Council identified Javier de Straw polls were used again in 2006, but Trygve Lie (Norway), Dag Hammarskjöld Cuéllar (Peru) as generally acceptable, and he this time with the addition of an abstention or (Sweden) and U Thant (Burma)—emerged went forward to be elected Secretary-General “no opinion” option. Ban Ki-moon (Republic from an ad hoc process where candidates in a formal vote on 11 December. of Korea) was selected after four straw polls, were suggested by P5 members, with the US This informal survey of members’ opinion with colour-coded ballots used in the last of and the USSR putting forward most of the developed into a system of “straw polls” that these. Although Ban had received one “dis- candidates. Generally, names of potential has been used in every subsequent election. courage” vote in the first three straw polls, in candidates were floated during informal dis- The 1991 election saw an evolution of the the fourth, which used colour-coded ballots, cussions, followed by formal votes in a private straw poll system with colour-coded ballot he received 14 “encourage” votes and one meeting. This decision is deemed a matter of papers being used to differentiate between “no opinion” from an elected member. substance which under Article 27 (3) of the permanent and elected members in the same While an unwritten understanding had Charter requires “an affirmative vote of nine poll. For the first time, a regional claim was developed over the years with regard to the members including the concurring votes of made on the position: by Africa, with the selection process, the first attempt to create permanent members”. If no candidate gar- OAU endorsing six candidates. In the first written guidelines was in 1996. Ambassador nered enough votes or received a veto, the straw polls held on 21 October, all 15 mem- Nugroho Wisnumurti (Indonesia), at the process would continue until a candidate bers were given a list of names and asked to start of his term as president of the Coun- acceptable to all P5 members emerged. For indicate with an “x” those they wished to sup- cil in November 1996, submitted a note example, when Lie resigned in November port. A blank ballot paper allowed members which came to be known as the “Wisnumurti 1952, the first four candidates to be voted on to add new candidates. At the second straw Guidelines”. It set out general principles, the either did not receive enough votes or were poll, names newly suggested in the first poll legal/procedural basis and the decision-mak- vetoed. Four more candidates were proposed were first voted on, followed by individual ing process, using colour-coded straw polls. with only one, Dag Hammarskjöld, being ballots for the combined list of names, which It also spelt out that candidates needed to acceptable to the Soviet Union, and there- included several non-African candidates. be submitted by member states and that the fore put to a final vote. Boutros Boutros-Ghali (Egypt) and Bernard final decision would take place in a private A significant innovation in the selection Chidzero (Zimbabwe) emerged as the lead- meeting. These guidelines have formed the process was made as a result of the dead- ing candidates. Following an undifferentiated backbone of the Secretary-General selection lock in 1981 between Kurt Waldheim (Aus- third straw poll, in order to determine if there process ever since. With the innovations in tria), who after serving two terms as Sec- would be a veto, in the fourth round perma- the selection process this year, members are retary-General had chosen to run for an nent members were given a red ballot sheet aware that the Wisnumurti Guidelines need unprecedented third term, and Salim Salim and elected members a white one. Having to be amended. (Tanzania), who had been endorsed by the established that neither of the leading can- Thus, the Council has continuously Organisation of African Unity (OAU). In didates was opposed by any of the P5, the revised its practice according to circumstanc- 1971, China had vetoed Waldheim twice, Council proceeded to vote formally on each es. Key issues which Council members will before abstaining during the third formal vote of the two candidates, with Boutros-Ghali need to decide in this year’s context include which led to Waldheim being appointed Sec- emerging as the victor. the timing of its decision-making; whether retary-General. It had also vetoed Waldheim Five years later, following two straw polls following the hearings in the General Assem- in the first round of votes for his reelection where he was the only candidate, Boutros- bly the Council will itself meet candidates, in 1976 but moved to an abstention in the Ghali was formally vetoed by the US. This led and if so in what format; and whether to second ballot. In 1981, China used its veto to four new African candidates entering the operate the straw ballot process as in the past, to block Waldheim, supporting Salim Salim, race. In the first round of straw polling held including colour-coded ballots to identify who was blocked by Western veto. This led to on 10 December 1996, Kofi Annan (Ghana), possible vetoes.

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 Status Update since our May Forecast

South Sudan of the Palestinian civilian population in the briefed Council members on the latest report On 4 May, Council members issued a press Occupied Palestinian Territory, which was on the implementation of resolution 1559 on statement welcoming the formation of the open to all member states. On 25 May, Spe- the disarmament of militias and the exten- transitional government of national unity cial Coordinator Niklolay Mladenov briefed sion of government control over Lebanese (SC/12350). The statement further under- the Council during the regular monthly meet- territory (S/2016/366). On 24 May, which scored the importance of the transitional ing on the Middle East, which was followed marked two years of a vacancy in the presi- government in implementing the August by consultations (S/PV.7697). dency, members of the Council issued a 2015 peace agreement. At press time, mem- press statement that underscored their deep- bers were negotiating a resolution to renew Iraq est concern over the vacancy and expressed the mandate of the 2206 South Sudan sanc- On 6 May, Special Representative Ján Kubiš their intention to continue following relat- tions regime. presented the Secretary-General’s reports on ed developments with a particular sense of UNAMI (S/2016/396) and on Iraq/Kuwait urgency (SC/12371). DPRK missing persons and property (S/2016/372) On 4 May, the chair of the 1718 DPRK Sanc- to the Council (S/PV.7689). He reported Boko Haram tions Committee, Ambassador Román Oyar- on Iraq’s deepening political crisis and chal- On 13 May, the Council adopted a presiden- zun (Spain), briefed Council members in lenges to Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s tial statement (S/PRST/2016/7) welcoming consultations on the work of the Committee. reform efforts; the financial crisis resulting Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s from corruption, plunging oil prices and initiative to convene a high-level Regional Counter-Terrorism the high cost of fighting ISIL; and the dete- Security Summit to evaluate the regional On 4 May, the Council was briefed by the riorating humanitarian situation with needs response to Boko Haram (S/PV.7692). It stat- chairs of its counter-terrorism-related com- expected to increase in 2016 in the context ed that Boko Haram continues to undermine mittees: Ambassador Gerard van Bohemen of counter-ISIL operations. Separately, on 12 peace and security in West and Central Afri- (New Zealand), chair of the 1267/1989/2253 May, Council members issued a press state- ca and expressed alarm at its linkages with Al-Qaida/ISIL Sanctions Committee; Ambas- ment condemning the ISIL terrorist attacks ISIL. The statement further highlighted the sador Amr Abdellatif Aboulatta (Egypt), in Baghdad (SC/12361). humanitarian crisis in the Lake Chad Basin chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Com- region created by the conflict. mittee; and Ambassador Román Oyarzun Sudan/South Sudan (Spain), chair of the 1540 Committee, which The Council adopted resolution 2287 on Liberia focuses on the non-proliferation of weapons 12 May, renewing the mandate of UNISFA On 13 May, Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchen- of mass destruction (S/PV.7686). On 11 May, until 15 November (S/PV.7691). Council ko (Ukraine), chair of the 1521 Liberia Sanc- the Council held an open debate focusing on members were briefed in consultations the tions Committee, briefed Council members countering the narratives and ideologies of same day via video teleconference by Haile in consultations on the committee’s activities terrorism (S/PV.7690). The meeting was an Menkerios, Special Representative to the AU, and the final report of the Panel of Experts initiative of Egypt, which circulated a concept on Sudan/South Sudan issues. (S/2016/348). On 25 May, the Council adopt- note ahead of the debate (S/2016/416). Depu- ed resolution 2288 that terminated the Libe- ty Secretary-General Jan Eliasson, Secretary- Haiti ria sanctions regime, including remaining General of Al-Azhar Islamic Research Acad- On 12 May, at the request of the US, Under- arms measures, the mandate of the Panel of emy Mohi El-Din Afifi, and Vice President Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- Experts and the 1521 Sanctions Committee. and Deputy General Counsel of Microsoft tions Hervé Ladsous briefed Council mem- Steven A. Crown briefed. At the meeting— bers in consultations on the electoral crisis in Guinea-Bissau which was chaired by Egypt’s Foreign Minis- Haiti. In a press statement issued the follow- On 13 May, Council members issued “ele- ter Sameh Shoukry—the Council adopted a ing day, Council members expressed “their ments to the press” following President Jose presidential statement (S/PRST/2016/6). deep disappointment” that Haitian leaders Mario Vaz’s decision to dismiss the govern- had failed to meet the election deadlines ment of Carlos Correia. Council members Bosnia and Herzegovina agreed on 5 February and called on them to called for leaders to resume dialogue to On 5 May, the Council held its semi-annu- ensure “the prompt return to constitutional bring political stability; urged internation- al debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (S/ order” (SC/12364). The statement also wel- al interlocutors to continue their efforts to PV.7688). High Representative for Bosnia comed Ladsous’s planned field visit to Haiti resolve the ongoing political impasse; and and Herzegovina Valentin Inzko presented (expected in June) to convey Council mem- reaffirmed the importance of the continued his office’s latest report (S/2016/395). bers’ sense of urgency and to assess the role non-interference of the defence and security of MINUSTAH and options for its future forces in the political situation. There was a Israel/Palestine reconfiguration. further expression of their commitment to On 6 May, Egypt, together with Angola, monitor the ongoing situation and readiness Malaysia, Senegal and Venezuela, held an Lebanon to take all necessary measures to overcome Arria-formula meeting on the protection On 13 May, Special Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen the current situation. On 26 May, following

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our May Forecast (con’t) a request from Senegal, Council members internally displaced persons, and also saw communiqué was still being negotiated. On received a briefing in consultations from the foreign minister of Egypt. On 25 May, 24 May, the Council held an open debate on Assistant Secretary-General for Political the Council held a briefing on the visiting “UN-AU cooperation: Chapter VIII appli- Affairs Tayé-Brook Zerihoun on the ongoing mission (S/PV.7696). cation and the future of the African Peace political crisis. and Security Architecture” (S/PV.7694). Peace Operations AU Commissioner for Peace and Security Kosovo On 18 May, Council members held an infor- Smail Chergui, newly-appointed Chair of On 16 May, Special Representative Zahir mal interactive dialogue with heads of military the Peacebuilding Commission Ambassador Tanin presented the most recent UNMIK components of UN peace operations. The Macharia Kamau (Kenya), Under-Secretary- report (S/2016/407) to the Council (S/ topics discussed included information and General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé PV.7693). Tanin conveyed that while intelligence (Maj Gen Lollesgaard, MINUS- Ladsous, and the head of the UN Office to UNMIK no longer administered the territory, MA), protection of civilians (Lt Gen Yohannes the AU, Haile Menkerios, briefed the Council. it remained an important bridge between the Gebremeskel Tesfamariam, UNMISS), use of Egypt circulated a concept note (S/2016/428) Security Council and the people of Kosovo technology (Lt Gen Derick Mbuyiselo Mgwe- ahead of the open debate at which a presiden- and the wider region. He also said that the bi, MONUSCO) and sexual exploitation and tial statement was adopted (S/PRST/2016/8). recent inauguration of the new president of abuse (Lt Gen Balla Keïta, MINUSCA). Kosovo and the general elections in Serbia Secretary-General Selection Process provide an opportunity to move beyond a Somalia On 25 May, Council members met under time marked by infighting. On 23 May, Council members issued a press “any other business” regarding the next steps statement that welcomed the electoral process for the Security Council in the Secretary- Council Visiting Mission set out in the decree issued by President Hassan General selection process. They discussed a From 17-22 May Council members under- Sheikh Mohamud on 22 May 2016, which number of issues, including whether to meet took a visiting mission to Somalia, Kenya they noted should enable necessary techni- with candidates nominated for the position and Egypt after agreeing on the terms of cal preparation and implementation without and the timing of the start of the straw polls. reference for the mission (S/2016/456). On further delay (SC/12369). On 27 May, the 19 May, Council members had meetings in Council adopted resolution 2289 authorising Sahel Mogadishu with officials from the UN Assis- a short technical rollover of AMISOM until On 26 May, the Council held a briefing on tance Mission in Somalia, the UN Support 8 July. This short rollover will allow Council challenges in the Sahel, which focused on the Office for Somalia, the AU Mission in Soma- members time to assess the results of their impact of climate change and desertification lia, Somalia’s president and other political 17-22 May Somalia-focused visiting mission to peace and security in this region. Moham- leaders and civil society. The following day, to the Horn of Africa and the possible implica- med Ibn Chambas, the head of UNOWAS they had discussions in Nairobi with Kenya’s tions for the AMISOM mandate. briefed via video teleconference. Other briefers president and other Kenyan officials, focus- included Monique Barbut, Executive Secre- ing on AMISOM and the refugee situation UN-AU Cooperation on Peace and tary of the UN Convention to Combat Desert- in Kenya in light of the government’s recent Security ifcation; Jean-Paul Laborde, Executive Direc- announcement that it would close down all On 23 May, members of the Security Council tor of CTED; and Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim, refugee camps. They also met with UN enti- and members of the AU Peace and Security Coordinator of the Association for Indigenous ties involved in the humanitarian response Council held their tenth joint annual consul- Women and Peoples of Chad (S/PV.7699). in Somalia. Council members spent the tative meeting in New York. The formal sec- last day of the mission on 21 May in Cai- tion of the meeting focused on Somalia and EU-UN Cooperation ro, where they had a “consultative meet- Burundi, while an informal discussion took On 27 May, Council members held their ing” with the League of Arab States, the a strategic look at their partnership, as well annual informal meeting with members of first ever of its kind, focusing on the Israel/ as the impact on their cooperation resulting the EU Political and Security Committee to Palestine peace process, Somalia, Libya and from the three 2015 UN peace and secu- discuss issues of mutual interest related to issues related to refugees, immigrants and rity review processes. At press time, a joint counter-terrorism, Libya and Syria.

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 Security Council Elections

Expected General Assembly Action REGION SEATS AVAILABLE IN STATES RUNNING AND PREVIOUS On 28 June, the General Assembly is sched- THE 2016 ELECTION TERMS ON THE COUNCIL uled to elect five states to two-year terms on African 1 Ethiopia (1967-1968 and 1989-1990) the Security Council beginning on 1 January 2017. (Please see our 3 June report, Securi- Asia-Pacific 1 Kazakhstan (none); Thailand (1985-1986) ty Council Elections 2016, for more detailed information.) Latin America and 1 Bolivia (1964-1965 and 1978-1979) Caribbean States

Background Western European and 2 Italy (1959-1960, 1971-1972, 1975-1976, The five seats available for election in 2016 Others 1987-1988, 1995-1996 and 2007-2008); The will be distributed as follows: Netherlands (1946, 1951-1952, 1965-1966, 1983-1984 and 1999-2000) Sweden (1957- • one seat for the African Group, currently 1958, 1975-1976 and 1997-1998) held by Angola; • one seat for the Group of Asia and the Pacific Small Island Developing States running unopposed. In theory, it is possible, including Afghanistan, Iran and possibly fro- (Asia-Pacific Group), currently held by although unlikely, that a country running zen conflicts in the North Caucasus. Given Malaysia; unopposed might not garner the requisite its historical ties to Libya and its exposure • one seat for the Group of Latin American votes of those present in the General Assem- to the migration crisis, Italy would be likely and Caribbean States (GRULAC), cur- bly in the first round of voting. Such a coun- to devote particular attention to that country. rently held by Venezuela; and try may then be challenged in subsequent Regarding thematic issues, several candi- • two seats for the Western European and rounds by a new candidate and ultimately dates—including Italy and Ethiopia—have Others Group (WEOG), currently held by not obtain a seat. stated their interest in efforts to counter ter- New Zealand and Spain. This will be the first time that elections rorism and transnational organised crime. (The Eastern European Group seat comes will be held in June. In previous years, elec- Given its focus in promoting the international up for election every other year and is held by tions were held in October; however, as a legal order, the Netherlands would be inter- Ukraine through 2017.) result of concerns that elected members did ested in advancing cooperation between the At press time, the elections for the African not have enough time to prepare for their UN and international courts and tribunals. and GRULAC regional groups were running terms, the General Assembly decided to hold The Netherlands could also pursue its inter- unopposed, with one candidate put forward the elections about six months before new est in reviving efforts to establish accountabil- by each regional group—Ethiopia and Bolivia, members assume their responsibilities. Reso- ity for the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight respectively. Both countries have previously lution 68/307 of 18 September 2014 decided MH17, in which many Dutch citizens were served on the Council on two occasions. that this would start during the 70th session killed. As a result of its experience, Kazakh- Races for the Asia-Pacific Group and of the General Assembly. stan would be likely to seek a role in non-pro- WEOG seats are being contested this year. liferation issues. Thailand has also expressed Kazakhstan and Thailand are competing for Potential Council Dynamics in 2017 interest in non-proliferation, as well as in one seat within the Asia-Pacific Group, while Existing divisions within the Council over women and peace and security. Considering Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden are com- issues such as Ukraine, Syria and Israel/Pal- its emphasis and experience regarding UN peting for two WEOG seats. With the excep- estine are likely to remain regardless of the peacebuilding, Sweden would be likely to tion of Kazakhstan, all candidates have served arrival of five new elected members. While it make this a priority. on the Council in the past: Thailand on one is difficult to assess how Council dynamics in All of the candidates contribute troops occasion, Italy on six, the Netherlands on five 2017 will develop, especially without knowing to UN peacekeeping missions. Ethiopia is and Sweden on three. the full composition of the new membership, currently the single largest troop contribu- the interests of current candidates provide tor to UN peacekeeping operations, with Voting Procedures some perspective on a few general patterns 8,311 military and police deployed as of 31 A country must obtain the votes of two-thirds that might emerge. March, while Italy is the largest troop con- of the member states present and voting at Some of the candidates could be expected tributor among EU and NATO members, the General Assembly session in order to to have a strong national interest in the con- with 1,128 military and police personnel secure a seat on the Council, regardless of flicts in their region that are on the Coun- currently deployed. Also as of 31 March, the whether the election is contested. This means cil’s agenda. Ethiopia shares borders with Netherlands had 514 deployed peacekeepers that 129 positive votes are required to win a three countries—Somalia, Sudan and South in five missions; Sweden had 272 peacekeep- seat if all 193 UN member states are present. Sudan—that are on the Council’s agenda ers deployed in seven missions; Thailand had Elections to the Council, as with other and is likely to devote significant attention to 33 peacekeepers deployed in four missions; principal organs of the UN, require for- these issues. Given its geographical location, Bolivia had 21 peacekeepers deployed in six mal balloting, even if candidates have been Kazakhstan would be likely to have a par- missions; and Kazakhstan had six peacekeep- endorsed by their regional group and are ticular interest in developments in its region, ers deployed in two missions.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Security Council Elections (con’t)

Next year, there could be an increase in by a group of member states that focuses on resolution 2286 on health care in armed the number of elected members that are the Council’s working methods, in particular conflict. In addition, Spain has been the pen- keen to further advance conflict prevention those that enhance non-members’ interaction holder on Afghanistan as well as on non-pro- and peacebuilding measures. In addition, all with the Council. (ACT member New Zea- liferation and weapons of mass destruction, candidates for 2017 have emphasised various land is leaving the Council at the end of this while another outgoing member—Malaysia— aspects of sustainable development and its year. Uruguay, also a member of ACT, will took a lead on children and armed conflict. It interconnectedness with peace and security. remain on the Council in 2017. The goals of remains to be seen whether incoming Coun- This could create friction with some Council ACT also resonate with other Council mem- cil members will take the initiative to draft members that advocate narrowing the Coun- bers that are not members of the group but Council outcomes and further challenge the cil’s agenda to issues that predominantly are nonetheless committed to enhancing the existing penholder arrangements. involve situations of armed conflict. accountability, effectiveness and legitimacy of Among the departing Council mem- Additionally, the majority of the candi- the Council.) bers are the chairs of six of the 14 existing dates seem to have a strong desire to improve Some elected members of the class of sanctions committees. Over the past two the transparency and inclusiveness of the 2016 have been particularly active in drafting years, there has been a general trend toward Council’s work. The commitment to trans- resolutions. Two departing members—New increased transparency in the work of sanc- parency is also understandable for countries Zealand and Spain, along with Egypt, which tions committees, including public brief- in campaign mode as most candidates have will remain on the Council in 2017—led on ings by the chair, engagement with regional pledged to listen to interested stakeholders outcomes on the humanitarian situation in actors and several field visits. Given the sig- that are not seated on the Council and to take Syria. In a departure from current practice nificance of the chair’s personal engagement their perspectives into account. One candi- of most outcomes being drafted by one of and how it impacts the work of sanctions date, Sweden, is a member of the Account- the P3 (France, UK and US), these coun- committees, it is unclear to what extent the ability, Coherence and Transparency Group tries, along with Uruguay and Japan, took the trend toward increased transparency and (ACT), an initiative launched in May 2013 initiative to draft and negotiate what became outreach will continue.

Protection of Civilians

Expected Council Action armed conflict, noting that humanitarian that the protection of civilians has military, In June, the Council will hold a ministerial- needs are at their highest level ever and that police and civilian elements. He says that he level open debate on the protection of civil- more than 60 million people have been dis- directed the deployment of dedicated senior ians in the context of peacekeeping opera- placed by conflict. It describes the patterns protection-of-civilians advisors “in all mis- tions. Jean-Marc Ayrault, the French minister of violence against civilians in several coun- sions with explicit protection mandates, with of foreign affairs and international develop- try-specific cases, including Afghanistan, a direct reporting line to the Head of Mission, ment, will preside. UN Secretary-General Nigeria, Libya, Iraq, South Sudan, Syria to advise on the development of protection- Ban Ki-moon, President Faustin-Archange and Yemen, among others. In the report, the of-civilians strategies and coordinate imple- Touadéra of the Central African Repub- Secretary-General outlines several priori- mentation”. The Secretary-General further lic and ICRC President Peter Maurer are ties with regard to the protection of civilians, highlights the importance of community expected to address the Council. It is pos- including strengthening compliance with engagement in promoting the protection of sible that a high-level representative from the international law, promoting accountability civilians, noting the usefulness of community UN Children’s Fund will brief as well. At for violations, enhancing efforts to protect alert networks and community liaison assis- press time, no immediate Council outcome civilians from explosive weapons in densely tants “in understanding perceptions of threat was anticipated. populated areas, improving humanitarian at the community level, including how com- access and strengthening collective efforts munities seek to reduce risk and how peace Key Recent Developments to address displacement. operations can address them”. He further In mid-May, the Secretary-General issued With regard to peace operations, the underscores the need for peacekeepers to act his most recent report on the protection Secretary-General specifically references when civilians are under threat. of civilians in armed conflict. Covering the the observation in the High-Level Inde- On 19 January, the Security Council held 2015 calendar year, the report paints a grim pendent Panel on Peace Operations (HIP- an open debate on the protection of civil- picture of the current needs of civilians in PO) report and in his own follow-on report ians, which was intended to focus on themes

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS Security Council Resolution S/RES/2286 (3 May 2016) condemned attacks on health care workers and facilities in armed conflict. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2015/26 (31 December 2015) underscored the importance of sustained cooperation among the Council, the Secretariat and troop- and police-contributing countries on peacekeeping. S/PRST/2015/23 (25 November 2015) requested that reports of the Secretary-General on the protection of civilians be submitted to the Council every 12 months, thus departing from past practice of producing these reports every 18 months. S/PRST/2015/22 (25 November 2015) took note of the recom- mendations of the HIPPO report and the Secretary-General’s implementation report. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2016/447 (13 May 2016) was the 12th report on the protection of civilians. S/2015/453 (18 June 2015) was the 11th report of the protection of civilians. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7685 (3 May 2016) was a briefing on the protection of health care in armed conflict. S/PV.7606 (19 January 2016) was the Council’s most recent open debate on the protection of civilians.

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 Protection of Civilians (con’t) underscored in the Secretary-General’s protection mandates; group meets prior to mandate renewals, June 2015 report on the protection of civil- • how to improve the Council’s monitor- but it could also meet on a less predictable ians, as well as the HIPPO report and the ing of the implementation of protection basis, as dictated by evolving conditions in Secretary-General’s report on the imple- mandates; country-specific situations in which the pro- mentation of the HIPPO recommendations. • how to ensure that the Council can quick- tection environment deteriorates. Briefers included Deputy Secretary-Gener- ly adapt to changing circumstances by, al Jan Eliasson, ICRC Vice-President Chris- for example, ensuring that mandates are Council and Wider Dynamics tine Beerli and Oxfam Senior Humanitarian reconfigured accordingly when there is a Council members are acutely aware of the Policy Advisor Eveline Rooijmans. State- heightened threat to civilians in environ- devastating impact that armed conflict has ments were made by 64 member states and ments in which UN peace operations are had on civilians in recent years. As a result, two regional organisations. employed; they realise that more needs to be done to Eliasson said that peacekeeping opera- • how to ensure that non-military protection translate advances at the normative level tions must respond quickly and with deter- tools—including political engagement, into effective country-specific strategies. mination when civilians are threatened. human rights monitoring and advocacy However, there are divisions among mem- Beerli underscored the need for parties in and rule-of-law development—are ade- bers regarding the Council’s approach to conflict situations to uphold internation- quately integrated into relevant mandates; protecting civilians. These differences have al humanitarian law. Roojimans said that and hindered the Council’s ability to protect troop- and police-contributing countries • how to protect civilians in contexts in civilians in South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, “must fully subscribe to and implement which the armed forces of the host gov- Ukraine and other crises. They also affected their mandate and be willing and allowed ernment are responsible for attacking the negotiations on the 25 November 2015 to act, and use force if need be, in the face civilians. presidential statement when a permanent of threats to civilians”. member expressed reservations about the The Council held a briefing on health Options revised Aide Memoire, referring in particu- care in armed conflict on 3 May. The brief- One option is for the Council to adopt a reso- lar to language in the document on small ers included UN Secretary-General Ban lution or presidential statement that: arms, the ICC and sanctions. Ki-moon; Peter Maurer, the president of • urges troop- and police-contributing While there is widespread appreciation the ICRC; and Joanne Liu, the president of countries to ensure that their personnel that the protection of civilians is a holistic Médecins Sans Frontières. During the debate, have requisite pre-deployment training concept with military, police and civilian the Council adopted resolution 2286, which in protection issues and that they are not elements, there are different views among emphasises the unacceptability of violations restricted by additional caveats beyond Council members and troop- and police- of international humanitarian law arising any explicitly accepted by the Secretariat contributing countries regarding the appro- from attacks against medical and humanitar- before deployment; priate use of force. Some tend to emphasise ian workers exclusively engaged in medical • requests the development of a common the importance of upholding the long- duties in conflict situations. system to record civilian casualties to standing principles of peacekeeping, which strengthen efforts to monitor and report include the use of force only for self-defence Key Issues violations of international human rights or in defence of the mandate, as well as host Key issues for the Council with regard to this and humanitarian law; and country consent and impartiality. Others, debate include the following: • condemns the use of explosive weapons in while espousing these principles, tend to • how to ensure that protection of civilians populated locations. have a more flexible interpretation of protec- mandates provide sufficient clarity and Another option would be to consider tion of civilians mandates, emphasising that guidance to peacekeeping missions; using the informal expert group on the pro- the use of force is required to protect civil- • how to ensure that there is adequate dis- tection of civilians to monitor the imple- ians when they are under attack or threat- cussion among the Secretariat, the troop- mentation of protection mandates and ened with attack. contributing countries and the Coun- make suggestions on adapting these man- The UK is the penholder on the protec- cil in the design and implementation of dates as necessary. Currently, the expert tion of civilians.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Women, Peace and Security

Expected Council Action displacement of populations from strategic settings: Afghanistan, the CAR, Colom- In early June, the Secretary-General and Spe- areas and, in the case of Boko Haram and bia, the DRC, Iraq, Libya, Mali, Myan- cial Representative on Sexual Violence in Con- ISIL, generating revenue through traffick- mar, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan/Dar- flict Zainab Bangura will brief the Council on ing, slave trade and ransoms. The report also fur, Syria and Yemen; the annual report on conflict-related sexual vio- highlights the vulnerability of displaced or • Sexual violence in post-conflict situations: lence. At press time, no outcome was planned. refugee women and girls to sexual exploita- Bosnia and Herzegovina, Côte d’Ivoire, In addition, Maria Grazia Giammarinaro, tion, such as human trafficking, early mar- Nepal and Sri Lanka; and the Human Rights Council’s Special Rap- riage and forced marriage. • Other situations of concern: Burundi and porteur on trafficking in persons, especially The focus on trafficking and the slave Nigeria. women and children, will address the Coun- trade is deepened in this year’s report with In 2015, Burundi was added to the report cil. Fatima Ahmed, who heads the organisa- analysis of how the commodification of wom- as a new situation while Liberia was removed. tion Zenab Women in Development in Sudan, en and girls has become part of the politi- Since 2012, these reports have also includ- will be the civil society briefer on behalf of cal economy of war, in both the recruitment ed an annex listing parties credibly suspect- the NGO Working Group on Women, Peace of fighters and financing of ongoing conflict. ed of committing or being responsible for and Security. This phenomenon was initially addressed by rape and other forms of sexual violence in the Council in a December 2015 briefing and situations of armed conflict on the Council’s Key Recent Developments adoption of a presidential statement. agenda. Other than the addition of Sudan to The Secretary-General’s 2015 report empha- This is the first year that the conflict-relat- the 2015 annex, the mix of parties remained sises that conflict resolution and counter-ter- ed sexual violence report is inclusive of sexual relatively unchanged with Boko Haram and rorism strategies cannot be separated from exploitation and abuse perpetrated by UN other state and non-state actors listed in the efforts to protect and empower women and peacekeepers. In the past, it has been argued CAR, Côte d’Ivoire, DRC, Iraq, Mali, Soma- girls. Conflict-related sexual violence occurs that this was a conduct and discipline issue lia, South Sudan and Syria. in situations where there is also systemic gen- and therefore outside the mandate of the der-based discrimination, such as the exclu- Office of the Special Representative. How- Key Issues sion of women from political life, economic ever, the inclusion of this issue in the 2015 A key issue for the open debate will be how marginalisation and discriminatory systems report is a result of what is now considered an to deal with extremist groups such as Boko of both formal and informal law. Further- essential response to the serious allegations of Haram and ISIL, which do not operate in just more, survivors of sexual violence often face sexual exploitation and abuse in the Central one country, are difficult to approach and are double victimisation through intimidation African Republic (CAR) by MINUSCA per- unlikely to respond to the usual forms of pres- against reporting, including accusations of sonnel and French parallel forces, as well as sure. Another issue will be how to deal with “adultery”, “honour”, or “morality” crimes, an overall environment in the CAR that has state actors who have also not responded to as a result of reporting to unresponsive or resulted in women and girls being extreme- the usual forms of pressure, such as Burundi, predatory security officials, faced with report- ly vulnerable to ever-increasing incidents of Sudan and Syria. ing to the national forces that perpetrated the human trafficking, sexual violence and trans- Related issues include: sexual violence or through forced marriage to actional sex. While this issue has received • ensuring the women, peace and security the perpetrator as a form of traditional settle- public attention because of the prevalence of agenda is integrated into the Council’s ment. The report also underlines the Coun- sexual exploitation and abuse in the CAR, it thematic work on counter-terrorism and cil’s recognition of sexual violence as a tactic is a pervasive issue in many peace operations country-specific situations where these of war in resolution 1820 and as a tactic of involving both civilian and military staff. groups operate; terrorism in resolution 2242. In other developments, the 2242 Informal • ensuring that counterinsurgency efforts The report focuses on sexual violence in Experts Group on women, peace and security against extremist groups do not exacer- the contexts of: violent extremism and terror- discussed many of the issues raised by the bate the vulnerabilities that women and ism; state forces or government-aligned mili- 2015 conflict-related sexual violence report girls face, such as in Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia tias participating in targeted sexual assaults in its February meeting on Mali and its April and Syria; and based on actual or perceived political affili- meeting on Iraq, and is likely to do so in its • not losing sight of the fact that in many ation; and lax command and control with forthcoming June meeting on the CAR. situations where sexual violence occurs, impunity for the perpetrators compounded by governments are a primary driver of con- victims’ lack of confidence in the justice sector. The Secretary-General’s Report flict in their own territory, such as in Syria The report details how sexual violence is The report provides information in three and Sudan. used to achieve tactical objectives, such as ter- categories: A continuing issue is the reluctance of rorising communities into compliance, mass • Sexual violence in conflict-affected Council members to use sanctions to pressure

UN DOCUMENTS ON WOMEN, PEACE AND SECURITY Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2242 (13 October 2015) addressed women’s roles in countering violent extremism and terrorism and noted the need for improving the Council’s own working methods, including convening meetings of an informal experts group on women, peace and security. S/RES/1325 (31 October 2000) was the first resolution on women, peace and security.Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2015/25 (16 December 2015) addressed trafficking in persons in situations of conflict, with a particular focus on ISIL and the impact on women and children.Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7585 (16 December 2015) was a briefing on the trafficking of persons in situations of conflict, with a particular focus on ISIL.S/PV.7533 and Resumption 1 (14 October 2015) was the annual open debate on women and peace and security. S/PV.7428 (15 April 2015) was the annual open debate on conflict-related sexual violence.Secretary-General’s Reports S/2016/361 (20 April 2016) was on conflict-related sexual violence. S/2015/716 (17 September 2015) was the annual report on women, peace and security that included recommendations from the Global Study on the implementation of resolution 1325.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 Women, Peace and Security (con’t) many of the groups listed in the Secretary- • ensuring that a gender lens is applied in to the convening of an informal expert group General’s annex, in particular to address traf- processes devoted to disarmament, demo- of Council members on women, peace and ficking in relation to sexual violence. bilisation and reintegration, security sector security; improving how this thematic agenda A further issue is the reluctance of the reform and justice reform; is incorporated into the Council’s sanctions Council to give due consideration to UN- • ensuring the deployment of gender exper- regimes; language describing an improved identified risk factors of sexual violence as an tise in missions, both gender advisers and gender architecture in the UN system; and early warning indicator that could enable the women’s protection advisers; and how the women, peace and security agenda Council to better fulfil its conflict prevention • calling for the inclusion of sexual violence should be integrated into strategies to coun- role, as in the case with Burundi. concerns in mediation and peace pro- ter violent extremism and terrorism. Other issues are how the Council can cesses, particularly in the context of secu- In subsequent negotiations on Council encourage the UN system and member states: rity arrangements and transitional justice outcomes on human trafficking and sex- • to better implement the zero-tolerance mechanisms. ual exploitation and abuse, similar issues policy on sexual exploitation and abuse in Options for the Council on sexual exploi- emerged with China and Russia, and in UN peace operations; and tation and abuse include: some instances Egypt. They resisted many • to develop and implement a gender-sensi- • adopting a statement or resolution that elements that they interpreted as an expan- tive humanitarian response to the needs of endorses the Secretary-General’s recom- sion of the women, peace and security agen- displaced women and girls. mendation to not allow national forces da or perceived as infringing on state sover- listed in the annex of the conflict-related eignty or the competencies of other parts of Options sexual violence report to be police or troop the UN system. An option for the Council regarding perpe- contributors to UN peace operations; and At press time, Council members were trators includes directing relevant sanctions • continuing to publicly support the Secre- negotiating a presidential statement on committees—including the 1267/1989/2253 tary-General if there is a decision to repa- women’s role in conflict prevention in Africa, Al-Qaida and ISIL Sanctions Committee— triate a particular military unit or formed largely based on previously agreed language. to engage with the Special Representative police unit of a contingent when there is Nevertheless, negotiations were difficult, in and consider whether parties in the annex credible evidence of widespread or sys- particular in relation to early warning indica- should be subject to existing sanctions or temic sexual exploitation and abuse by tors that could enhance the Council’s con- whether designation criteria should be that unit, as endorsed in resolution 2272. flict prevention role, strengthening linkages expanded to include sexual violence and between the women, peace and security and human trafficking. Another option is ensur- Council Dynamics counter-terrorism agendas, and language ing the inclusion of gender expertise in Between 2013 and 2015, the Council did regarding gender perspectives in mediation expert groups that report to relevant Secu- not adopt a resolution on women, peace and and peace operations. rity Council sanctions committees. security, leaving dynamics on this issue large- The UK is the penholder on women, peace Options for the Council to integrate sexu- ly untested for two years. However, familiar and security in the Council. The US is the al violence concerns into its country-specific divisions quickly re-emerged during negotia- penholder on sexual violence issues. Spain work—especially when renewing or establish- tions of resolution 2242 in October 2015, par- and the UK co-chair the 2242 Informal ing peace operations—include: ticularly around operational language related Experts Group on women, peace and security.

Libya

Expected Council Action Ambassador Ramlan Ibrahim (Malaysia). situation in the capital, the Presidency Coun- In June, the Council is expected to renew The mandate of the Sanctions Commit- cil has failed to secure the endorsement of the mandate of the UN Support Mission in tee’s Panel of Experts expires on 31 July 2017. the GNA by the Tobruk-based House of Rep- Libya (UNSMIL) which expires on 15 June. resentatives. According to the Libyan Politi- UNSMIL head Martin Kobler will brief on Key Recent Developments cal Agreement, the House has to conduct a recent political developments and the Secre- Despite the arrival of seven of the nine mem- formal vote on the composition of the pro- tary-General’s latest report. bers of the Presidency Council of the Govern- posed GNA and amend the Constitutional The Council also expects a briefing by the ment of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli Declaration. (UNSMIL continues its efforts chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, on 30 March and the relatively calm security to bring on board boycotting members of the

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2278 (31 March 2016) renewed the sanctions regime for a year. S/RES/2273 (15 March 2016) renewed the mandate of UNSMIL until 15 June 2016. Secretary-General’s Report S/2016/452 (16 May 2016) was the most recent report on Libya. Security Council Letter S/2016/275 (21 March 2016) was from Libyan Ambassador Ibrahim O. Dabbashi, calling for the Council to explicitly allow the reinvestment of assets frozen under sanctions in order to protect their value. Security Council Press Statements SC/12334 (22 April 2016) deplored the maritime tragedy that resulted in up to 500 deaths. SC/12313 (1 April 2016) encouraged the Presidency Council to immediately begin its work in Tripoli to broaden the basis of its support. Sanctions Committee Documents S/2016/210 (3 March 2016) transmitted the recommendations of the Monitoring Team on measures that could be taken to strengthen monitoring of global implementation of resolutions 2199 and 2178. S/2016/209 (4 March 2016) was the final report of the Panel of Experts on Libya.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Libya (con’t)

Presidency Council Ali Al-Qatrani and Omar raise funds by looting the cultural heritage of Key Issues Al-Aswad.) Libya and said awareness of this risk should The overarching issues are how to ensure the House members have been repeatedly be raised. broad acceptance of the Agreement, includ- prevented by its president, Aguila Saleh, from According to the 16 May Secretary-Gen- ing its endorsement by the House; how to holding a vote on a list of GNA candidates, eral’s report, there has been a steady in-coun- bring on board those unwilling to sign it; submitted on 15 February by the Presiden- try presence since 30 March of UNSMIL and how to change the behaviour of spoilers cy Council. A majority of House members staff focused primarily on supporting the actively undermining the political process or declared on 21 April their intention to con- Presidency Council and its Temporary Secu- to isolate them. vene in a different location to endorse the rity Committee. However, UNSMIL has not A key issue is ensuring that military actors GNA while reiterating reservations about been able to re-establish its Tripoli office and commit to implementing the ceasefire and article 8 of the Agreement regarding the permanently redeploy staff on the ground. other security arrangements provided for in transfer of military power. To date, the vote The deployment of a sizeable armed UN the Agreement. Stopping violations of inter- has not taken place, nor has the House con- security team—a guard unit—is a precondi- national humanitarian law by the parties is a vened outside Tobruk. On 13 May, the US tion for the permanent return to Tripoli of related issue. imposed sanctions on Saleh for repeatedly the mission. The growing threat in Libya of terrorist blocking votes by the House needed to sup- The International Organization for Migra- groups with regional reach is an urgent issue. port Libya’s political transition. tion recorded 631 deaths on the Mediterra- Although the Presidency Council has taken nean routes to Europe in April alone. Accord- Options control of several ministries, the Tripoli-based ing to OCHA, the number of internally Options for Council members on Libya “National Salvation Government” continues displaced persons across Libya has reached include: to reject peacefully transferring authority. 417,000, in addition to 100,000 refugees • adopting a resolution extending Members of the General National Congress and 135,000 migrants. The Humanitarian UNSMIL’s mandate for six months as voted to amend the Constitutional Declara- Response Plan for Libya continues to be recommended by the Secretary-General, tion and reconstituted themselves as the State severely underfunded. with the view to renewing the mandate Council—a consultative institution provided once a GNA is in place, emphasising the for by the Agreement—but questions remain Sanctions-Related Developments role that UNSMIL will continue to play regarding the legality of this move. On 31 March, the Council adopted resolution in broadening support for the Agreement; 2278, extending until 31 July 2017 the mandate The security situation continues to be • visiting Libya or the region or both to of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya critical, particularly in the east. In Beng- Sanctions Committee and the measures address- hold discussions with the parties, includ- hazi, General Khalifa Haftar launched a new ing the illicit exports of crude oil from Libya. The ing spoilers, and regional stakeholders to military offensive with the stated objective of resolution contained language affirming the generate momentum for the endorsement evicting the Shura Council and its allies from Council’s readiness to consider changes to the of the GNA, and to discuss with Libyan sanctions regime (namely the assets freeze and the city, taking over some neighbourhoods. stakeholders the Council’s support for the arms embargo) at the request of the GNA UNSMIL recorded a high number of civilian when appropriate. Libya and the sanctions in place; and casualties in Benghazi as a result of attacks At the request of Libya’s ambassador to the • considering imposing sanctions on spoil- by the different parties and their failure to UN, Ibrahim Dabbashi, the 1970 Libya Sanctions ers, including member states identified as allow safe and voluntary evacuation of civil- Committee on 27 April approved the designation violating the sanctions regime. of an Indian-flagged tanker carrying crude oil ille- ians. The situation in Tripoli is largely calm, gally exported from eastern Libya in defiance of despite episodes of violence among rival mili- the measures under resolution 2278 of 31 March. Council and Wider Dynamics tias. The Presidency Council is currently pro- On 12 May this entry was deleted from the sanc- Council members generally support tected in Tripoli by Libyan army and police tions list following the return of the crude oil to UNSMIL’s mediation efforts and have units under the command of the Temporary Libya. repeatedly stated that there can be no military Security Committee and by armed groups After a ministerial meeting aimed at garner- solution to the crisis in Libya. There is also ing support for Libya’s Presidency Council held that are nominally subordinate to the Min- in Vienna on 16 May, the participant governments a feeling of urgency among Council mem- istry of Interior. and international organisations (a group of the bers given the growing threat of ISIL in Lib- The presence of terrorist groups contin- main stakeholders, including the five permanent ya. Some Council members emphasise the ues to be a threat to Libya and the region. Council members) issued a joint communiqué importance of a formal endorsement of the Despite losses sustained in Sabratha and Der- supporting the Presidency Council’s intention to GNA by the House as per the political agree- submit arms embargo exemption requests to the na, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Committee to combat ISIL in Libya. On 23 May, ment. However, other Council members are (ISIL) still controls a 250-kilometre stretch the Council of the EU extended the mandate of already interacting bilaterally with the Presi- of the coastal area around Sirte in central EUNAVFOR MED Operation Sophia to build the dency Council of the GNA as the legitimate Libya. A 3 March report by the Monitoring capacity of the Libyan coastguard and Navy and government of Libya. This dynamic has been Team of the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Dae’sh)/ to support the implementation of the arms embar- reflected recently in how to refer to the GNA go on the high seas. Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee highlighted and its Presidency Council in the negotia- the substantial risk that ISIL could attempt to tions on resolutions 2273 and 2278, of 15

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 Libya (con’t) and 31 March respectively, and in a 1 April embargo. In the past it has been difficult to On a separate note, even though it is press statement. negotiate resolutions authorising the inter- expected that EU Operation Sophia will In May, EU Council members started ception of vessels on the high seas or in the eventually operate in the territorial waters of negotiating a draft resolution that would territorial waters of a third country, whether Libya, this is contingent upon an invitation authorise EU Operation Sophia to interdict in the context of fighting human trafficking, by the government. ships on the high seas off the coast of Libya the implementation of sanctions or counter- The UK is the penholder on Libya. to ensure strict implementation of the arms piracy measures.

International Criminal Tribunals

Expected Council Action resolution be completed by 31 December Srpska and Supreme Commander of its In June, the Council will hold its semi-annual 2014. In this regard, the resolution called armed forces, of genocide, crimes against debate on the ad hoc international criminal for the Office of Internal Oversight Servic- humanity and violations of the laws or cus- tribunals. The presidents and prosecutors of es (OIOS) to carry out an evaluation of the toms of war. He was sentenced to 40 years’ the International Criminal Tribunal for the methods and work of the ICTY in imple- imprisonment. Karadžić is currently appeal- former Yugoslavia and the Residual Mecha- menting its completion strategy. The report, ing the judgement. On 31 March, the ICTY nism for International Criminal Tribunals are covering 2010-2015, offered a mixed assess- acquitted Vojislav Šešelj, President of the expected to brief. No outcome is anticipated. ment. It found that “the ICTY has adequate- Serbian Radical Party and a former member The Informal Working Group on Interna- ly developed the structures, mechanisms and of the Assembly of the Republic of Serbia, of tional Tribunals may meet with the presidents operational activities to implement the com- all charges. The Office of the Prosecutor has and prosecutors prior to the debate. pletion strategy” and “has been somewhat appealed the decision. In both cases, appeal effective in planning and carrying out its case proceedings fall under the jurisdiction of the Key Recent Developments work”. The report said the Court had “intro- Residual Mechanism. The International Criminal Tribunal for duced notable measures to expedite judicial Rwanda (ICTR) activities…but evidence to demonstrate it is The Residual Mechanism The ICTR officially closed on 31 Decem- working in the most efficient manner from The Residual Mechanism, established in ber 2015 after delivering its final judgment 2010-2015 is weak, and there is inadequate 2010, is mandated by the Council to carry on appeal on 14 December 2015. During its accountability for the conduct of judges.” In out certain essential functions of the ICTY two decades, the ICTR sentenced 61 people addition, voluntary separation, not downsiz- and ICTR after completion of their respec- to terms of up to life imprisonment, acquit- ing, posed a major challenge to the timely tive mandates, including tracking and pros- ted 14 and referred ten others to national completion of judicial activities. The report ecuting remaining fugitives and conducting jurisdictions. The Council issued a press made four recommendations to the ICTY: appeals proceedings. The Council empha- statement on 31 December, acknowledg- monitor progress toward internal bench- sised, in its 22 December 2015 resolution, ing the ICTR’s substantial contribution and marks; ensure that planning and monitoring that the Mechanism was established to be a calling upon all states to cooperate with the mechanisms are tracking efficiency results; small, temporary and efficient structure. The Residual Mechanism now responsible for the develop a code of conduct and disciplinary resolution also noted the conclusion of the arrest and prosecution of the eight remaining mechanism for judges; and develop a central- Council’s initial review of the progress of the ICTR-indicted fugitives. ised information system on staff separations Mechanism and requested the Mechanism to and an improved human resources analysis. take into account certain views and recom- The International Criminal Tribunal for the At press time, the ICTY had concluded mendations to further enhance its efficiency former Yugoslavia (ICTY) proceedings against 151 of the 161 persons and effective and transparent management, The Council adopted a resolution on 22 indicted, with two trial cases, involving two including more focused completion projec- December 2015, extending the terms of 17 individuals, and two appeal cases, involving tions, disciplined adherence to those projec- ICTY judges and the prosecutor for vary- eight individuals, ongoing. Judgement in tions and further reduction of costs. ing lengths of time not beyond 31 December one of the appeal cases is expected by the On 25 February, Council members were 2016, with Russia abstaining. The resolution end of June, and completion of the remain- briefed under “any other business” on the reiterated continued concern over repeated ing cases is expected in November 2017. On Secretary-General’s nomination of ICTY delays in the conclusion of the ICTY’s work, 24 March, the ICTY convicted Radovan prosecutor Serge Brammertz (Belgium) as which the Council had requested in a 2010 Karadžić, the former President of Republika prosecutor of the Residual Mechanism after

UN DOCUMENTS ON INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL TRIBUNALS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2269 (29 February 2016) appointed the prosecutor of the Residual Mechanism. S/RES/2256 (22 December 2015) extended the terms of ICTY judges and the prosecutor and dealt with the Residual Mechanism. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7636 (29 February 2016) was the meeting to adopt the resolution appointing the prosecutor of the Residual Mechanism. S/PV.7574 (9 December 2015) was the most recent semi-annual briefing. Security Council Press Statement SC/12188 (31 December 2015) marked the ICTR’s closure.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 11 International Criminal Tribunals (con’t) some countries expressed opposition. On ICTY as well as following the work of the differences should not have practical effect 29 February, the Council adopted a reso- Residual Mechanism. until the end of the year when further exten- lution appointing Brammertz until 30 June sion requests will be made. 2018. Angola, Egypt, Senegal and Russia Options Council members, including Russia, have abstained. In their explanation of vote, Ango- The Council will likely hold the debate with- so far generally assessed the Residual Mecha- la, Egypt and Senegal expressed their view out taking further action. nism positively with the caveat that it must that the replacement of prosecutor Hassan continue to fulfil its mandate expeditiously Jallow (The Gambia) with Brammertz result- Council Dynamics and cost-effectively. While Angola, Egypt ed in a lack of equitable geographical distri- Delays in the ICTY’s completion of its and Senegal abstained from the resolution bution among the Mechanism’s leadership. activities have been a source of some ten- appointing Brammertz as prosecutor, this Russia abstained because, since Brammertz sion in the Council. According to the rel- was related mainly to the resulting decrease in will also remain the ICTY prosecutor, it was evant Council resolutions, the ICTY was African representation at key UN posts, and concerned about “the reproduction and con- expected to complete its caseload in 2010 not to the work of the Residual Mechanism tinuation in the Mechanism of the significant or, failing that, by the end of 2014. Cur- itself. Similarly, Russia’s abstention was moti- flaws that were characteristic of the ICTY”. rently, the ICTY expects completion in late vated by its dissatisfaction with the ICTY and Effective 1 March, Judge Theodor Meron 2017. The most recent resolution, adopted not with the Mechanism directly. (US) was re-appointed by the Secretary- in December 2015, extended ICTY judges’ During the debate, Council members will General as president of the Mechanism until and the prosecutor’s terms to no later than 31 likely focus on the ICTY’s completion strat- 30 June 2018. December 2016. As it did in previous years, egy, including the OIOS’s evaluation report The presidents and prosecutors of the Russia abstained, commenting that the situa- and the handover of activities to the Resid- ICTY, ICTR and Residual Mechanism last tion regarding the tribunal’s exit strategy had ual Mechanism. The eight remaining ICTR- briefed the Council on 9 December 2015. not improved and that costly trial delays con- indicted fugitives and the relocation of per- tinued. Russia is also critical of the ICTY’s sons released or acquitted by the ICTR may Key Issues jurisprudence, arguing that it has not done also be discussed. The main issue is the continuing review by justice on behalf of Serbian victims of the Uruguay is the penholder and chair of the the Informal Working Group on International Yugoslav conflict. As no requests for extend- Informal Working Group on International Tribunals of the completion strategy of the ing judges’ terms are expected in June, these Tribunals.

Counter-Terrorism

Expected Council Action the Secretary-General acknowledged that through the ISIL/Al-Qaida sanctions regime In June, the Council is expected to receive ISIL (also known as Da’esh) represents an and the implementation of resolution 1373, a briefing from Jeffrey Feltman, the Under- unprecedented threat to international peace which obliges states to criminalise the financ- Secretary-General for Political Affairs, on and security that is able to adapt quickly to ing of terrorism. It focuses on cutting off the UN counter-terrorism efforts against the the changing environment and to persuade financial sources of terrorism, particularly Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), or inspire like-minded terrorist groups regarding ISIL and Al-Qaida, targeting oil followed by consultations. around the world to facilitate and commit and gas smuggling, traffic of cultural rel- acts of terrorism. In particular, the report ics, ransoms and external donations, among Background highlights the evolution of the threat in the other assets. On 18 January, the Counter- Resolution 2253 of 17 December 2015 previous 18 months, including ISIL’s grow- Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate requested the Secretary-General to pres- ing sphere of influence, the increasing com- (CTED) published a global implementation ent a strategic-level report that reflects the plexity of recent attacks (in terms of plan- survey of resolution 1373 that identified sev- gravity of the threat posed to international ning, coordination and sophistication) and eral gaps in efforts to disrupt funding sourc- peace and security by ISIL and its associ- the steady stream of foreign terrorist fighters es and issued recommendations for member ates and to provide updates to the Council joining ISIL and its affiliates. states to enhance their domestic action to every four months thereafter. The first such The Council’s counter-terrorism frame- counter money-laundering and the financing report was published on 29 January. In it, work targets the financing of terrorism, of terrorism. Despite the Council’s focus on

UN DOCUMENTS ON COUNTER-TERRORISM Security Council Resolution S/RES/2253 (17 December 2015) renamed the sanctions regime to feature ISIL (Da’esh) in its title. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2016/6 (11 May 2016) requested the CTC to present a proposal to the Council for a “comprehensive international framework” to counter the use of narratives by ISIL, Al-Qaida and other terrorist groups. Secretary-General’s Report S/2016/92 (29 January 2016) was on the threat posed by ISIL to international peace and security and the range of UN efforts in support of member states in countering the threat.Security Council Letters S/2016/50 (18 January 2016) was the global implementation survey of resolution 1624. S/2016/49 (18 January 2016) was the global implementation survey of resolution 1373. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7690 (11 May 2016) focused on countering the narratives and ideologies of terrorism. S/PV.7686 (4 May 2016) was a joint briefing by the chairs of the counter-terrorism-related bodies. S/PV.7670 (14 April 2016) was an open debate on efforts to strengthen international counter-terrorism cooperation and coordination. S/PV.7618 (9 February 2016) was a briefing by Feltman on UN counter-terrorism efforts against ISIL, followed by consultations.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 Counter-Terrorism (con’t) the financing of ISIL, the 29 January report formal discussions have been held in the Options underlines ISIL’s rapid and effective mobili- chamber in recent months. In addition to Although no outcome is anticipated follow- sation of financial resources in the service of some of the regular briefings mentioned ing the briefing, the Council could issue a recruitment and territorial expansion, char- above, open debates were held in April and statement that: acterising ISIL as “the world’s wealthiest ter- May at the initiative of China and Egypt, • calls on all member states to ensure over- rorist organisation”. respectively. Briefing the Council on 14 all implementation of the ISIL/Al-Qaida Despite Council action targeting foreign April in a meeting on efforts to strengthen sanctions regime, threatening those violat- terrorist fighters, the 29 January report international counter-terrorism cooperation, ing it with secondary sanctions; notes how their numbers have risen to an the Secretary-General stressed that “too • calls on all member states to strengthen unprecedented level (around 30,000 fight- often, government counter-terror strategies their capacities to ensure the implemen- ers originating from more than 100 member are so heavy-handed and discriminatory that tation of other legal obligations imposed states) as a result of the increasing num- they end up being counterproductive, gen- by the Council regarding issues such as ber of ways potential recruits can access erating further alienation among targeted the financing of terrorism and the travel information on how to join ISIL, including communities and even more terrorists than and recruitment of foreign terrorist fight- through the Internet. Briefing the Council there were beforehand”. ers and others; on 4 May, the chair of the 1267/1989/2253 On 11 May, the Council held an open • encourages further listings by the ISIL/ ISIL (Da’esh)/Al-Qaida Sanctions Com- debate focused on countering the narratives Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee of indi- mittee, Ambassador Gerard van Bohemen and ideologies of terrorism. At that meeting, viduals and entities engaging in activities (New Zealand), elaborated on some of the it adopted a presidential statement requesting in support of these terrorist groups or their ways in which foreign terrorist fighters avoid the CTC to present a proposal to the Coun- affiliates; and scrutiny, such as the use of indirect travel cil by 30 April 2017 for a “comprehensive • requests the Secretary-General to pro- routes to reach their destinations. Van Bohe- international framework” to counter the use vide recommendations on how better to men also briefed the Council on the shift- of narratives by ISIL, Al-Qaida and other ter- address the links between terrorist groups ing centre of gravity of ISIL and the expan- rorist groups that encourage, motivate and and transnational organised crime. sion of the geographical scope of its actions, recruit members to commit terrorist acts. including its increasing influence in places This proposal is expected to include a coun- Council and Wider Dynamics such as Afghanistan, Libya and Yemen. ter-narrative campaign and options for coor- Despite some divergences over the politicisa- Also briefing the Council was Ambassa- dinating the implementation of the frame- tion of the issue in the Middle East, counter- dor Amr Abdellatif Aboulatta (Egypt), chair work and mobilising resources as necessary. terrorism continues to have overall unani- of the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC), The current discussions on counter-ter- mous support among Council members, who said its priorities in 2016 include hold- rorism are also expected to provide momen- as well as high visibility of Council action. ing two special meetings, one on countering tum on this issue as the General Assembly Efforts to continue curbing the capabilities the financing of terrorism and another one reviews the UN global counter-terrorism of ISIL and Al-Qaida affiliates seem to be a on preventing terrorists from exploiting the strategy, which is expected to be completed priority for Council action. Although the idea Internet and social media. As part of the in June. behind these new regular briefings by Felt- ongoing work of the Committee to stem the man is to place more emphasis on strategic flow of foreign terrorist fighters, Aboulatta Key Issues thinking and less on implementation mea- also highlighted some of the recommenda- A key issue for the Council is to ensure overall sures, it remains to be seen how useful Coun- tions included in the three reports prepared implementation of the ISIL/Al-Qaida sanc- cil members will find this new reporting track. by CTED in 2015 on the implementation tions regime, including through targeting The Secretary-General has highlighted of resolution 2178, including thematic and those violating the regime by helping terrorist the need to engage earlier and address the regional recommendations to address this groups improve their operational capabilities. drivers of violent extremism, but the Coun- phenomenon. The recommendations covered Mitigating the humanitarian impact of cil has so far stopped short of welcoming his issues such as criminalisation of foreign ter- these measures is a key issue to ensure their Plan of Action to Prevent Violent Extrem- rorist fighters and international cooperation effectiveness. ism, released in January. In the 11 May pres- on border control, intelligence sharing and Avoiding the politicisation of counter-ter- idential statement, the Council merely takes capacity-building. rorism discussions is a key issue to ensure the note of the Secretary General’s plan, fur- Although most of the Council’s counter- effectiveness of Council action. ther noting that it will be considered during terrorism-related work has taken place for the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy some time at the subsidiary level, several review in June.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Sudan (Darfur)

Expected Council Action who heads the Follow-up Commission, Freijsen had a “negative attitude towards the In June, the Council will hold a briefing, urged the movements that have not signed Sudanese government” and Sudanese For- followed by consultations, on the AU/UN the DDPD to join the peace process. He said eign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour complained Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). that inter-communal violence and the spread about Freijsen’s reporting on the humanitar- Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeep- of arms remain obstacles to peace in Darfur. ian situation in Darfur. ing Operations Hervé Ladsous is expected The humanitarian crisis in South Sudan In February, Erastus Mwecha, the AU to provide the briefing. The Council needs has continued to spill over into Sudan. Since Commission’s Deputy Chairperson, sent to renew the mandate of UNAMID, which late January, more than 55,500 refugees from a letter regarding the ICC to Ambassador expires on 30 June. Also during the month, South Sudan have fled to Sudan’s East Dar- Rafael Ramírez (Venezuela) in his capacity ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda is expected fur, South Darfur and West Kordofan states as President of the UN Security Council for to provide the semi-annual briefing to the “mainly due to conflict and reported food that month. In the letter, Mwecha referred to Council on the Court’s work on Darfur. It shortages in [South Sudan’s] Northern Bahr decisions of the Assembly of Heads of State further seems that Council members will el Ghazal and Warrap states”, according to and Government of the AU that requested meet with the AU’s Open-ended Ministerial OCHA. From the start of the civil war in the suspension of ICC proceedings against Committee of Ministers of Foreign Affairs on South Sudan on 15 December 2013 through President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan and the ICC. The ICC’s case against Sudanese 31 March, more than 224,000 refugees have urged the Council to withdraw its referral of President Omar al-Bashir will probably be fled to Sudan from South Sudan. Sudan to the Court. raised in this meeting. Five civilians were killed and several oth- On 12 May, President Bashir attended the ers were wounded on 10 May when armed inauguration of Ugandan President Yoweri Key Recent Developments nomads opened fire near a site for internally Museveni in Kampala. Uganda, a state party to A referendum on the administrative status displaced persons in Sortony, North Dar- the ICC, was obligated under the Rome Statute of Darfur was conducted between 11 and fur. Marta Ruedas, the UN Resident and to arrest Bashir, who has been indicted by the 13 April to determine whether the Darfur Humanitarian Coordinator in Sudan, said court on charges of war crimes, crimes against region would remain as five administrative that the incident occurred “after a reported humanity and genocide. During his inaugu- units (i.e. North Darfur, South Darfur, East rise in tensions between displaced and armed ral address, however, Museveni disavowed his Darfur, West Darfur and Central Darfur) tribesman over cattle raiding”. On 12 May, country’s support for the court, referring to the or become one administrative unit. On 24 the violence was condemned in a joint state- ICC as “a bunch of useless people”. April, the Darfur Referendum Commission ment issued by UN Secretary-General Ban announced the results, reporting that almost Ki-moon and AU Commission Chairperson Sanctions-Related Developments 98 percent of the participants chose the sta- Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. On 3 May, Ambassador Ramírez, chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, briefed Coun- tus quo (i.e. five states). Analysts have main- On 13 May, the Council received a note cil members in consultations on the work of the tained that the Sudanese government prefers from the Secretariat regarding customs clear- Committee. During the meeting, it was noted that, the status quo, as this enables it to continue to ances for supply containers at Port Sudan to because of holds by Russia on the final report of exert greater control over an administrative- be shipped to UNAMID. While the note was the 2015 Sudan Sanctions Committee Panel of ly divided region. Opposition forces argued confidential, it apparently said that customs Experts and on the proposed slate of candidates for the 2016 Panel, the 2015 report had yet to be against holding the referendum, expressing clearances for several containers of food and released and the Panel of Experts had yet to be concerns that ongoing fighting and displace- equipment continued to be held up by Suda- appointed for this year. ment in the region would make participation nese authorities. difficult for many potential voters. The Justice On 19 May, Sudanese State Minister of and Equality Movement (JEM), one of the Foreign Affairs Kamal Ismail reiterated his Human Rights-Related Developments key Darfur rebel groups that boycotted the government’s position that UNAMID should The independent expert on the situation of human rights in Sudan, Aristide Nononsi, released a vote, refused to accept the results and called withdraw from Darfur, claiming that the situ- statement on 29 April, after his second mission the poll fraudulent. ation there was “stable.” to the country from 14 to 28 April, that urged The 11th meeting of the Implementation On 22 May, the Humanitarian Coun- the Sudanese government “to enable a condu- Follow-up Commission of the Doha Docu- try Team (HCT) in Sudan announced that cive environment for a free and inclusive national ment for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) was con- the Sudanese government had decided not dialogue by respecting the basic fundamental rights of Sudanese people, including the rights vened on 9 May in Khartoum. During the to renew the work permit of OCHA Head to freedoms of expression and association and meeting, Joint AU-UN Special Representa- of Office Ivo Freijsen, which expires on 6 of the press”. The statement expressed concern tive for Darfur Martin Ihoeghian Uhomoi- June. According to an HCT press statement, about a number of human rights problems in bhi underscored the negative humanitar- “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has pro- the country, such as arbitrary arrests, detention ian impact of this year’s fighting in Darfur’s vided no official explanation in writing for and ill-treatment of human rights defenders and political activists by security forces, including the Jebel Marra region. Deputy Prime Minister this decision,” although Sudan’s Humanitar- National Intelligence and Security Service; ongo- of Qatar Ahmad bin Abdullah Al Mahmoud, ian Affairs Commission reportedly said that ing censorship of newspapers; and increased

UN DOCUMENTS ON DARFUR Security Council Resolution S/RES/2228 (29 June 2015) renewed the UNAMID mandate. Secretary-General’s Report S/2016/268 (22 March 2016) was the UNAMID report. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7666 (6 April 2016) was a briefing on UNAMID.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 Sudan (Darfur) (con’t)

restrictions on journalists. The statement also the mission, including by issuing visas negotiations on this year’s mandate renewal. recalled that, in the preceding weeks, Sudanese to UNAMID personnel and providing During last year’s negotiations on the UNA- government authorities had prevented four Suda- customs clearances for food and supplies MID resolution, members such as France, nese human rights defenders from attending the pre-briefing session of the Universal Periodic destined for the mission in a more expedi- the UK and the US underscored the condi- Review in Geneva. tious manner; tionality of the exit strategy for UNAMID, • reiterate that the exit strategy for UNA- noting that it must be firmly linked to signifi- MID is conditioned on the mission’s cant progress on the mission’s benchmarks. Key Issues achievement of benchmarks (i.e. an inclu- Other members, including Angola and Rus- The underlying issue for the Council is the sive peace process, the protection of civil- sia, preferred not to emphasise the condition- continuing instability of the security and ians, unhindered humanitarian access and ality of the exit strategy. humanitarian environment in Darfur, with the prevention or mitigation of commu- Given the ongoing stalemate in the peace no progress on the political front. nity conflict) and the government’s coop- talks, some members continue to suggest that An ongoing key issue is the limited level of eration with UNAMID; and rebel groups in Darfur should be targeted for cooperation that Sudan accords to the mis- • call on the three mediation tracks (the sanctions by the Council. Russia reiterated sion. Delays in issuing visas to mission staff UNAMID Joint Special Representative, this position during consultations on the 1591 and in providing customs clearances, as well the AUHIP and the UN Special Envoy for Sanctions Committee’s work on 3 May. Simi- as restrictions on the movement of UNA- Sudan and South Sudan) to coordinate larly, at the same meeting, Egypt reportedly MID peacekeepers, have been a hindrance to their efforts to pursue a holistic strategy expressed the view that the Sudan Libera- UNAMID’s operations in recent months. As regarding the conflicts in Sudan. tion Army-Abdul Wahid faction, which has reflected by Foreign Minister Ismail’s recent The Council could also consider establish- engaged in heavy fighting with government statement, the government of Sudan has been ing a co-penholder system on Darfur, where- forces in the Jebel Marra region this year, outspoken in its calls to expedite the develop- by the current penholder, the UK, shares the should be designated for sanctions. ment of an exit strategy for UNAMID. pen with an African member of the Council, Regarding the work of the ICC on Dar- Another important issue is the continu- thus heightening African engagement on this fur, sharp divisions remain among Council ing impasse in the Council with regard to issue in the Council and possibly bringing a members. Eight members of the Council are the ICC’s work in Darfur and whether the fresh perspective to the matter. state parties to the Rome Statute (France, Council can develop a strategy to overcome Regarding the ICC, the Council could Japan, New Zealand, Senegal, Spain, the UK, this stalemate. hold an informal interactive dialogue meet- Uruguay and Venezuela), although Venezuela ing with the Office of the Prosecutor to con- shares the AU position that the Court’s work Options structively discuss next steps. has been politicised. Seven countries (Angola, The most likely option is for the Council to China, Egypt, Malaysia, Russia, Ukraine and renew the mandate of UNAMID for an addi- Council Dynamics the US) are not state parties; however, the tional year. In doing so, the Council could: There have been different views among US has been supportive of the Court’s work • underscore the need for the government Council members on the UNAMID exit in Darfur. of Sudan to enhance cooperation with strategy that could resurface during the The UK is the penholder on Darfur.

UNOCA/LRA

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments year, reportedly the most in any three-month In June, the Security Council will be briefed Although the LRA is no longer at its height of period since the third quarter of 2010. by Abdoulaye Bathily, Special Representative activity, the start of 2016 saw an increase in Also in the CAR, the UN Multidimen- and head of the UN Regional Office for Cen- activity attributed to the group, particularly sional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the tral Africa (UNOCA), on the Secretary-Gen- in the south-eastern part of the Central Afri- CAR (MINUSCA) has reported that several eral’s report on UNOCA and the implemen- can Republic (CAR). According to a report villages in Bria region have been abandoned tation of the UN regional strategy to combat issued by the NGOs Invisible Children and since LRA attacks increased at the end of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). Resolve, the LRA abducted 296 people in December 2015. The mandate of UNOCA expires on 31 the CAR and the Democratic Republic of On 18 April, Council members issued a August 2018. the Congo (DRC) in the first quarter of this press statement condemning the killing of

UN DOCUMENTS ON UNOCA/LRA Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2015/12 (11 June 2015) expressed concern at the grave security situation in parts of Central Africa, in particular the ongoing crisis in the CAR and its regional impact, the continuing threat of the LRA and the terrorist activities of Boko Haram. Secretary-General’s Report S/2015/914 (30 November 2015) was on the situation in Central Africa and the activities of UNOCA. Security Council Letters S/2015/554 and S/2015/555 (16 and 21 July 2015) was an exchange of letters between the Secretary-General and the Security Council in which the mandate of UNOCA was renewed until 31 August 2018. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7572 (8 December 2015) was a briefing on UNOCA and the Secretary-General’s report.Sanctions-Related Documents SC/12272 (7 March 2016) was a press release announcing the addition of the LRA and Joseph Kony to the CAR sanctions list.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 15 UNOCA/LRA (con’t) a MINUSCA peacekeeper. According to a recognised that UNOCA could play a role Options statement by the Secretary-General, the inci- by talking to political actors in the ROC and As in the past, an option for the Council is to dent occurred when a MINUSCA patrol was the region as part of this effort. issue a presidential or press statement that: dispatched to Rafai in response to an attack The Secretary-General telephoned Sassou • expresses support for UNOCA and on the nearby village of Agoumar by alleged Nguesso the following day, stressing the need encourages member states to contribute elements of the LRA. for political dialogue to foster national unity more resources toward anti-LRA efforts According to the UN Joint Human Rights following the recent elections and for allow- and regional cooperation, especially in Office in the DRC (UNJHRO), LRA com- ing humanitarian actors to have access to the light of the turmoil in countries in the batants were responsible for at least 38 cases areas concerned. region; of human rights violations in the DRC dur- In a statement on 13 April, UN High • commends the LRA-affected states for ing the month of April. UNJHRO noted that Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad their cooperation and encourages further these figures are particularly worrying given Al Hussein cited reports of mass arrests and cooperation to overcome the LRA threat that in March no violations by LRA combat- torture in detention, as well as killing and once and for all; ants were documented. displacement. He added, however, that these • expresses concern over reports of LRA Tension has been mounting in the reports had been difficult to verify, given the cooperation with rebel groups in the Republic of Congo (ROC) since President lack of access to “the Pool” area by indepen- CAR and over the increasing threat of the Denis Sassou Nguesso’s re-election on 20 dent actors. Islamist group Boko Haram to the region; March, extending further his rule of 18 con- Another regional threat is that of piracy. and secutive years (and 32 years in total). The Based on a report by the organisation Oceans • expresses support for UNOCA’s efforts runner-up, Guy-Brice Kolelas, conceded Beyond Piracy, the Washington Post reported in addressing the increasing political and defeat, saying he wanted to avoid further that due to the fall in oil prices, pirate kidnap- security challenges in Central Africa. violence, but he and other candidates main- pings of seamen in the Gulf of Guinea have On the ROC, the Council may consider tain the polling was rigged. Opposition par- become more common. A total of 15 kidnap- putting the issue on its agenda and closely ties led protests against the referendum of pings were reported in 2015, while 2016 has monitoring the situation. October 2015 that allowed Sassou Nguesso already seen an equal number of kidnappings to change the constitution and run again. for ransom. Council Dynamics Security forces killed at least 18 people dur- In a presidential statement adopted on 25 Council members are largely in agreement on ing opposition demonstrations against the April, the Council encouraged both UNOCA LRA-related issues. Council members have referendum changes. and the UN Office for West Africa and the also been supportive of UNOCA’s contin- After relative calm, 17 people were killed Sahel to continue to assist regional efforts to ued shift to focus its efforts on the region as on 4 April in fighting between government tackle piracy in the Gulf. a whole, rather than on the LRA as its main forces and armed assailants in a neighbour- Bathily last briefed the Council on 8 objective. hood called “the Pool”, an opposition strong- December 2015. Jackson Tuwei, Special The request for regular reporting from hold in Brazzaville. The government issued Envoy of the AU for the Lord’s Resistance UNOCA in the presidential statement of an arrest warrant for Frederic Bintsamou for Army, also addressed the Council via video 11 June 2015 reflected the view of several assassination and illegal possession of weap- teleconference from Nairobi. Council members that in the absence of par- ons in connection with the fighting. Bint- ticular developments or new concerns, adopt- samou, leader of the “Ninjas” (a former rebel Sanctions-Related Developments ing a semi-annual presidential statement on group active in the 1997-1999 civil war and After years of activity in the region, the 2127 CAR UNOCA is not very productive. At the same Sanctions Committee on 7 March added the LRA a 2002 insurgency against Sassou Nguesso) time, several Council members insisted that and its leader, Joseph Kony, to the CAR sanctions and the father of Kolelas, has denied involve- list at the request of France, the UK and the US. regular reporting by UNOCA continue. ment in the attack. Recent media reports sug- Thus, while Council members maintain gest that the authorities have been in contact Key Issues interest in LRA activities and other sub- with Bintsamou, who is still at large, through A key issue for the Council will be to get an regional developments, the Council will be interlocutors close to him, to resolve the crisis. updated analysis regarding implementation less likely to adopt an outcome document fol- During his monthly luncheon with Coun- and effectiveness of the UN’s regional anti- lowing next month’s briefing without a new cil members on 17 May, the Secretary-Gen- LRA strategy and the wider impact of the and specific issue to address. Members are eral brought to the attention of members LRA on the region. likely to follow events in the ROC, but at this the situation in the ROC, to encourage dis- Monitoring instability and potential dete- time it does not seem as though the Council creet contacts with the ROC government to rioration in other areas in the region is a will take up the issue. calm the situation. One Council member major concern for the Council.

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 UNRCCA (Central Asia)

Expected Council Action which was co-organised with the UN Coun- With regard to UNRCCA, a key issue is In June, the Special Representative and head ter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force whether UNRCCA’s role as a tool for preven- of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive (CTITF), aimed to support implementation tive diplomacy could be further developed. Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), Pet- of the joint plan of action for Central Asia ko Draganov, is due to brief Council members under the UN global counter-terrorism strat- Options in consultations on the work of the centre. egy. It aimed to help participants gain a better One option for Council members is to issue understanding of the causes of radicalisation a press statement, as they have done in the Key Recent Developments and develop strategies to more effectively pre- past, reaffirming the importance of conflict In the period since his last briefing to the vent and combat this growing threat. prevention, expressing support for UNRC- Council on 4 February, Draganov visit- UNRCCA also hosted a regular meeting CA’s activities in the region and reiterating ed Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan. He was in in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on 25 April of other key elements from previous statements, Kyrgyzstan from 22 to 24 March, where he the mini-Dublin group, an informal coor- such as highlighting the centre’s role relat- met the president, Almazbek Atambaev, the dination group of like-minded countries ing to regional trans-boundary water man- speaker of parliament, Asylbek Jeenbekov, focused on the fight against illicit drugs. The agement, counter-terrorism, drug trafficking and the foreign minister, Erlan Abdyldaev, meeting was attended by representatives of and regional engagement with Afghanistan. as well as civil society representatives. Dis- Turkmenistan law enforcement agencies, Another option is to change the format of cussions focused on elections, judicial reform, embassies and international organisations the briefing from a closed to an open meeting, and human rights and inter-ethnic rela- based in Ashgabat. Participants shared infor- perhaps followed by consultations, as is the tions, in addition to regional challenges that mation about their activities related to the case for the semi-annual briefings by the UN UNRCCA is mandated to deal with, such fight against illicit drugs in order to better Office for West Africa and the UN Regional as terrorism, religious extremism, manage- coordinate their efforts. Office for Central Africa. ment of natural resources and border-related In other developments, there was height- issues. Draganov praised Kyrgyzstan’s efforts ened tension between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbeki- Council Dynamics aimed at democratic development, notably stan over a disputed border area between the Since the establishment of UNRCCA in the recently held parliamentary elections, two countries. On 18 March, according to 2007, the semi-annual briefings on its work while stressing the need to further promote news reports, two Uzbek armored person- have normally been welcomed by Council and protect human rights. (The OESC elec- nel carriers and some 40 soldiers suddenly members in a press statement commending toral observer mission for the 5 October 2015 appeared near the area, prompting Kyrgyz- the important role played by the centre as a parliamentary elections concluded that they stan to send two of its own armored person- conflict prevention tool, with Russia as the “were competitive and provided voters with nel carriers and a similar number of troops penholder. Following the last two briefings, a wide range of choice” and were “unique the following day. Kyrgyz officials said the however, in September 2015 and February in the region”. Local elections will be held deployment by Uzbekistan was a violation 2016, Council members were unable to agree later this year while presidential elections are of bilateral agreements between Bishkek and on a statement although they are generally scheduled for 2017.) Tashkent not to militarise a tense situation supportive of the centre and agree that it During his visit to Afghanistan, which took along their common border. The standoff plays a useful role. place from 19 to 21 April, Draganov had ended on 26 March with the two sides pulling It seems that in both cases the lack of meetings with the deputy foreign minister, back. The majority of the 1,314-kilometer- consensus was mostly due to the fact that Hekmat Khalil Karzai, senior officials from long Uzbek-Kyrgyz border is still undefined, Russia proposed new language relating the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan and conflicts on and near border crossings in to UNRCCA’s cooperation with regional and the UN Office for Drugs and Crime, as recent years have often been violent and led organisations. While recent statements sim- well as ambassadors from Central Asia and to civilian casualties. ply encouraged increased cooperation and other key countries. Discussions focused on coordination between the Central Asian current developments in Afghanistan and the Key Issues countries, UNRCCA and “relevant region- region, regional cooperation and the engage- Key issues include the rising threat of terror- al organizations” to strengthen the region’s ment of Central Asian countries in the stabili- ism and extremism, ongoing tensions linked capacity to overcome challenges to peace, sation of Afghanistan. Joint efforts to counter to border-related disputes, trans-boundary stability and sustainable development, Rus- security threats and support human develop- water management and drug trafficking. The sia proposed adding specific references ment were also discussed. regional impact of the situation in Afghani- in this context to the Commonwealth of The main event hosted by UNRCCA dur- stan also remains a key issue, with recent Independent States (CIS), the Collective ing the period was a regional seminar held on reports of increased fighting along the Turk- Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), the 29-31 March, in Almaty, Kazakhstan, entitled men-Afghan border and Tajikistan taking Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), “Recognizing and Responding to Radicaliza- steps to bolster its forces along the Afghan OSCE and the EU. This was unacceptable tion that Can Lead to Violent Extremism border due to the deteriorating security situ- to some other members, however, in par- and Terrorism in Central Asia”. The seminar, ation in northern Afghanistan. ticular France, the UK and the US, who saw

UN DOCUMENTS ON UNRCCA (CENTRAL ASIA) Security Council Press Statement SC/11751 (23 January 2015) was the most recent press statement on UNRCCA. Security Council Letters S/2007/280 (15 May 2007) and S/2007/279 (7 May 2007) concerned the establishment of UNRCCA.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 17 UNRCCA (Central Asia) (con’t) it as an attempt by Russia to gain greater and SCO. They, therefore, asked Russia to members, however, were more flexible. At legitimacy through the UN for organisations instead use agreed language from previous press time, it was unclear whether Russia they perceive as tools for spreading Russian statements referring to cooperation with intended to propose a press statement fol- influence in the region, notably CIS, CSTO regional organisations more generally. Other lowing the briefing in June.

Mali

Expected Council Action Briefing the Council on 5 April, Under- in Mali”. On 18 May, five Chadian peace- In June, the Council is expected to renew Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- keepers were killed and three were seriously the mandate of the UN Multidimension- tions Hervé Ladsous said that despite the cre- injured in an attack by unidentified assailants al Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali ation of new committees on integration and in the Kidal region. That day, in a previously (MINUSMA). The Council also expects to DDR and advances in the establishment of scheduled meeting, MINUSMA’s force com- receive a briefing from the Special Represen- pre-cantonment sites, progress regarding the mander, Major General Michael Lollesgaard, tative and head of MINUSMA, Mahamat security forces remains too slow. Following briefed Council members on the importance Saleh Annadif, followed by consultations. advances on the decentralisation process, at of improving intelligence and situational MINUSMA’s mandate expires on 30 June. the 18 May meeting of the Commission Tech- awareness so as to ensure informed decision- nique de Sécurité—a follow-up mechanism making in a context with asymmetric threats. Key Recent Developments to the agreement chaired by MINUSMA and He particularly highlighted the added value Despite some progress in the implementation focused on security-related issues—armed of the All-Source-Information-Fusion-Unit of the Agreement for Peace and Reconcilia- groups committed themselves to engage in established within MINUSMA, giving the tion in Mali, key challenges remain one year confidence-building measures such as the mission an unprecedented capacity to gather after its signing. The legal framework for the deployment of joint patrols. and process actionable information on threats decentralisation process continues to devel- Efforts to advance on national reconcilia- to civilians and UN personnel. Kidnappings op. Following the establishment of two new tion continue to drag. A peace forum, which have also been a serious security concern. regions in January—Taoudenni and Ména- was expected to convene representatives of In a recent development, three ICRC staff ka—the National Assembly adopted a law on armed groups and the government in Kidal, members who had been kidnapped on 16 31 March modifying the territorial munici- ended up hosting only representatives of the April by the terrorist group Ansar Eddine palities’ code. Along with other decisions, Coordination des Mouvements de l’Azawad were released on 22 April. this process is expected to provide for the coalition of armed groups. The work of the Insecurity is also fed by existing tensions, implementation of the transitional local and Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commis- including intercommunal conflicts that con- regional administrations in the north (which sion, which was first established in January tinue to increase, especially in the areas of will be composed of representatives of the 2014, has until now mostly focused on dis- Gao and Mopti. MINUSMA has also been government and of the coalitions of armed cussions over its commissioners, budgetary the target of popular discontent. On 18 April groups). On 5 May, the constitutional court issues and internal structure instead of the demonstrators clashed with MINUSMA forc- upheld the 31 March law, which had been substance of its work. A national reconcili- es at the Kidal airport. The violence resulted challenged by opposition parties and it was ation conference provided for in the peace in the deaths of two demonstrators. An inter- promulgated on 10 May. However, the imple- agreement is one of the outstanding issues nal investigation concluded that there was no mentation of this legal framework, its accep- in its implementation. evidence to ascertain whether the deaths were tance by the opposition and the provision of Terrorism in Mali continues to be a threat as a result of MINUSMA’s actions. A second basic services in the north remain challenging. to the stability of the country and the region. investigation is expected to take place. The coalitions of armed groups had until then The mission continues to be a target: more Since March, the Department for Peace- expressed the need to see advances on the than 60 MINUSMA peacekeepers have now keeping Operations has been leading a stra- decentralisation process by the government died as a result of malicious acts against the tegic review of MINUSMA. The review is before moving ahead on the security provi- mission since its establishment in 2013. In expected to provide guidance on such issues sions of the agreement—such as cantonment, his 5 April briefing, Ladsous emphasised as prioritisation of the mission’s good offic- the deployment of joint patrols and the dis- how “each day that passes without the peace es mandate, increasing the troop ceiling and armament, demobilisation and reintegration agreement being implemented is a day gained whether to change the posture of the mission of armed combatants (DDR)—which were for extremist and terrorist groups, which are and its force layout. In a meeting with Council considered prerequisites by the government. betting on the failure of the peace process members during their March visit to Bamako,

UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2227 (29 June 2015) renewed the mandate of MINUSMA. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7665 (5 April 2016) was a briefing on the latest MINUSMA report. Security Council Press Statement SC/12366 (19 May 2016) condemned the 18 May terrorist attack on a MINUSMA convoy that killed five Chadian peacekeepers and injured three others.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 Mali (con’t)

Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop elaborated The marked increase in terrorist attacks Committee to report on ways to curb the on the need for MINUSMA to prepare its exit and their reach, the deliberate targeting of magnitude of the terrorist threat in Mali, strategy. Diop proposed establishing bench- MINUSMA and the safety concerns of troop- including from non-listed groups such as marks to assess performance and provide for and police-contributing countries are further the Macina Liberation Front. an exit for the mission once commonly agreed key issues for the Council to address. objectives have been attained. During a 16 Council and Wider Dynamics May luncheon of Council members with the Options Council members remain united in support of Secretary-General, some discussion took place In the resolution renewing MINUSMA’s accelerating the implementation of the agree- about the early conclusions of the strategic mandate the Council could: ment. As a result of their visiting mission in review, including the need to increase the mis- • prioritise the tasks that can be achieved March, Council members might be amenable sion’s military personnel, the importance of during the mandate cycle; to the recommendations of the MINUSMA enabling the extension of state authority in the • increase the troop ceiling; strategic review regarding the need to match north and implementing measures to bridge • adapt the force’s layout to address the and adapt MINUSMA’s mandate to the needs the current capacity gaps within the mission. increasing reach of terrorist groups and currently identified on the ground. It remains widespread banditry in places like Mopti unclear, however, how these recommenda- Key Issues in central Mali; tions might be perceived, given some Coun- An overarching issue is the slow implementa- • call on troop- and police-contributing cil members’ concern at rising peacekeeping tion of the agreement and the lack of progress countries and, more widely, member states costs and in light of the government’s call for in such areas as confidence-building measures, to supply key capacities that the mission a mission exit strategy. Despite calls by Malian reconciliation and return of basic services to is lacking, including armoured personnel stakeholders for a more robust mandate for the north. Ensuring that cantonment and carriers; the mission, Council members seem to be of DDR take place within a broader context of • call on the parties to act in good faith and the opinion that the mandate is already excep- security sector reform and accountability for with the spirit of compromise in the dis- tionally robust and that the mission cannot human rights violations is an important issue. cussions regarding the implementation engage in counter-terrorism activities. Addressing the grievances and frustrations of the agreement and threaten to impose Council members continue to be wor- of different communities that are not seeing sanctions on spoilers; ried about attacks targeting MINUSMA in the impact of the peace dividends in their • reiterate the Council’s support of MINUS- northern Mali. MINUSMA’s exceptionally daily lives, including youth at risk of being MA’s good offices mandate to encourage high number of fatalities and casualties has recruited by violent groups, is a related issue. and support the full implementation of the led to an increasing divide between the troop The limited mobility of MINUSMA and peace agreement; and contributors willing to deploy their forces in its insufficient capacities and resources to ful- • request the Monitoring Team of the the most dangerous territory and other, more fil its mandate in the current context are also 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State of Iraq and risk-averse contributors. key issues. the Levant (Da’esh)/Al-Qaida Sanctions France is the penholder on Mali.

Syria

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments in late April and the shelling of a maternity In June, Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura is On 3 May, the Security Council adopted res- ward in government-held Aleppo in early May. expected to brief Council members on the olution 2286 condemning attacks on health On 4 May, Under-Secretary-General for intra-Syrian political process that, at press care workers and facilities and demanding Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman and Under- time, was facing serious challenges due to compliance with international humanitarian Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs the unravelling cessation of hostilities and the law. While the resolution was not country-spe- Stephen O’Brien briefed the Council on the ongoing lack of humanitarian access. cific, many Council members viewed it as rele- escalation of hostilities around Aleppo. Gov- Council members will also receive their vant to Syria in light of ongoing attacks against ernment forces, supported by Russian air regular monthly briefings on the humanitar- medical facilities there, in particular the air- power and the Lebanese Shi’a militia Hez- ian and chemical weapons tracks. strike targeting a hospital in rebel-held Aleppo bollah, were targeting armed rebel groups,

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2268 (26 February 2016) endorsed the cessation of hostilities. S/RES/2254 (18 December 2015) was on a political solution to the Syrian crisis. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7701 (27 May 2016) was a briefing on the humanitarian situation.S/PV.7687 (4 May 2016) was a briefing on the situ- ation in Aleppo. Security Council Press Statements SC/12372 (24 May 2016) condemned the ISIL attacks in Jableh and Tartous as well as indiscriminate attacks by all parties, called for the resumption of talks and expressed support for Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura.SC/12360 (12 May 2016) expressed outrage at attacks against civilians and civilian objects. Security Council Letter S/2016/438 (12 May 2016) was the joint statement of Russia and the US that reconfirmed their commitment to Syria’s cessation of hostilities. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2016/460 (19 May 2016) was on the humanitarian situation. S/2016/391 (26 April 2016) was on chemical weapons. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS ISSG Members: Australia, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Lebanon, Netherlands, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Turkey, UAE, UK, and the US and the Arab League, EU, OIC and the UN

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Syria (con’t) ostensibly fighting in coordination with Al Following the aborted aid delivery, media aerial bombardment, the statement recalled Nusra Front, which is not a party to the ces- reports indicated that rebel fighters feared the Syrian government’s March commitment sation of hostilities. an imminent assault on Darraya, citing the not to “arbitrarily” use weapons, presumably In early May, Russia and the US declared deployment of increased numbers of govern- in reference to strikes against civilian tar- so-called “regimes of calm”, or local and tem- ment troops and equipment near the town. gets. The statement added that if a party was porary truces, to try and shore up the failing A government offensive over the weekend persistently non-compliant it could then be cessation of hostilities in Aleppo as well as of 21-22 May was repelled. The rebel Free excluded from the cessation of hostilities, but in government-controlled Latakia and reb- Syrian Army, on behalf of 40 armed opposi- the approval process to determine such exclu- el-held Eastern Ghouta outside of Damas- tion groups, announced on 22 May that they sion as described was arduous and opaque. cus. On 9 May, Russia and the US, in their would no longer abide by the cessation of On humanitarian issues, the statement said capacity as co-chairs of the International hostilities unless Syrian forces ceased attacks that if the UN continues to be denied access Syria Support Group’s (ISSG) ceasefire task on Aleppo and around Damascus. to besieged areas after 1 June, then the World force, issued a joint statement that they would On 23 May, US Secretary of State John Food Programme should deliver humanitarian intensify efforts to implement a nationwide Kerry spoke with Russian Foreign Minister aid via air bridges and air drops, as it does in cessation of hostilities, enhance efforts to pro- Sergey Lavrov, urging him to use his influence ISIL-controlled Deir ez-Zor. Finally, the state- mote humanitarian assistance, and redouble to halt Syrian government attacks on Aleppo ment underscored that, as per resolution 2254, efforts to reach a political solution. The state- and the suburbs of Damascus. At press time, 1 August remained the deadline for the parties ment also committed to delineating areas con- Russia had called for another “regime of to reach an agreement on a framework for a trolled by Al Nusra Front and by the Islamic calm” to be extended to the Damascus sub- genuine political transition and welcomed the State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), to ensure urbs of Darraya and Eastern Ghouta and had Special Envoy’s 27 April Mediator’s Summary. a common understanding of which areas were said its military would hold off on strikes for Unlike in past statements, the ISSG could afforded protection by the cessation of hostili- a limited period of time to allow rebel groups not reach agreement on when talks might ties and which areas were not—a task original- to withdraw from Al-Nusra Front positions. resume. However, by welcoming the Medi- ly set out in resolution 2268 in February, but Meanwhile, in mid-May, Al Nusra Front, ator’s Summary, the ISSG signaled agree- with unclear results, as any such agreement in coordination with rebel groups and other ment that the basis for the next round of between Russia and the US on delineation extremist groups, seized Khan Touman, a vil- talks would include issues such as the pow- has not been shared with others. lage south of Aleppo. There were also reports of ers of the presidency in a transitional govern- The situation on the ground over the insurgents killing and abducting civilians when ment, security sector reform, constitutional course of May did not provide any evidence they advanced into the government-controlled issues, justice sector reform and issues related that commitments in the 9 May statement Alawite village of Al Zara. Attacks by ISIS on to UN-supervised elections. The opposition were being observed. The Syrian regime 23 May killed 160 people in the government- umbrella group, the High Negotiations Com- pressed on with two key objectives: to encir- controlled towns of Jableh and Tartous. mittee (HNC), has reiterated the need for a cle Aleppo and break rebel control of areas At press time, the situation in Syria was full cessation of hostilities and the delivery of around Damascus. There were escalating gov- grim, with the cessation of hostilities on the humanitarian aid before they would return ernment airstrikes in Aleppo, including tar- cusp of falling apart, leaving the political pro- to talks. At press time, de Mistura was sched- geting the last road into rebel-held parts of cess in limbo. At the end of the last round uled to brief Council members on 26 May the city. Outside of Damascus, airstrikes had of intra-Syrian talks in late April, de Mistura and was expected to echo the need for sub- allowed government forces to advance into said that the parties had agreed on the need stantially less violence and substantially more rebel-held areas in Eastern Ghouta by 19 May. for a “transition” but remained far apart on aid, and reiterate that, despite agreement on On 12 May, despite having received clear- how to achieve it. The government proposed an agenda for the talks, without appropriate ance from government authorities, a UN aid a national unity government, but explicitly conditions the credibility of any future talks convoy was denied access to government- rejected the opposition’s position to form a would be in jeopardy. besieged Darraya, a suburb of Damascus that transitional governing body with full execu- Regarding the humanitarian situation, had not received aid since 2012. The convoy tive powers (in line with the June 2012 Gene- OCHA head O’Brien was expected to brief was refused entry by the 4th Division of the va Communiqué), and insisted that Assad’s Council members on 27 May and report that Syrian Army, controlled by President Bashar presidency was not subject to negotiation. ongoing indiscriminate attacks, the slow- al-Assad’s brother Maher, because it includ- Indeed, there were no political talks held down in aid delivery, the continued removal ed medical and nutritional supplies, with the in May, though the ISSG met on 17 May, of medical supplies from convoys by govern- government arguing it had only approved resulting in yet another statement reaffirm- ment forces and the lack of access to govern- vaccines, school supplies and baby formula. ing the need for a full cessation of hostilities ment-besieged suburbs of Damascus, par- After the convoy turned back, government and humanitarian access. The statement wel- ticularly Darraya, continued to undermine forces launched a mortar attack at the area comed the new Russian-US Coordination independent humanitarian action. where civilians had gathered to receive the Cell in Geneva that was set up to investigate, On chemical weapons, Acting UN High aid, reportedly killing a father and his son and respond to and mitigate the effects of the viola- Representative for Disarmament Affairs Kim injuring five others. tions of the cessation of hostilities. Regarding Won-soo briefed Council members on 5 May.

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 Syria (con’t)

Sanctions-Related Developments prolonged armed conflict over a negotiated the June 2012 Geneva Communiqué that On 20 April, the 1267/1989/2253 Al-Qaida/ISIL settlement. There is also a broad recognition it will be destined to fail. Some are also of Sanctions Committee added five individuals to its that if fighting in Syria cannot be controlled the view that the Russian-US cooperation list (SC/12332). Separately in late April, Russia requested that Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam then it will be difficult for UN mediation on Syria has reached its limits, resulting in be added to Al-Qaida/ISIL sanctions list. But the between the government and the opposition familiar divisions reoccurring in New York request was blocked in early May as consen- to resume with any chance of success. in the Security Council. Russia’s request to sus among all 15 Council members could not be There is a palpable sense of frustration add Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam to the reached. among many elected members over spend- Al-Qaida/ISIL sanctions list was blocked by ing time and energy deciding questions of the P3 and Ukraine. Both Ahrar al-Sham and Key Issue meeting formats and arguing over press state- Jaish al-Islam are parties to the cessation of The essential issue for the Council, enter- ments rather than grappling with the sub- hostilities and listing them would, de facto, ing the sixth year of a war that has exacted stantial issues at hand. Two draft press state- broaden the range of legitimate targets for a death toll of 470,000 and displaced half of ments in May were blocked by Russia: one government offensives, since groups sanc- the Syrian population, including 4.84 mil- on attacks against hospitals in Aleppo, and tioned by the UN Security Council are not lion refugees, is to exert effective leadership another addressing an attack against a camp included in the cessation of hostilities. in supporting a cessation of hostilities and for internally displaced persons near the Turk- Tensions have also re-emerged on the chem- efforts to reach a political solution. ish border. Finally, on 12 May, Council mem- ical weapons track, where the P3 and many oth- bers were able to agree on a press statement er Council members have blocked China and Options that generically expressed outrage at attacks Russia’s draft resolution that would expand the The ISSG and resolutions 2254 and 2268 have directed towards civilians and civilian objects, mandate of the UN-OPCW Joint Investigative identified roles for the Council in the event that but did not detail specific incidents. The day- Mechanism’s (JIM)—the body mandated to talks in 2016 produce concrete results towards to-day oversight of forging a political solution determine responsibility for the use of chemical a national ceasefire and a parallel political pro- to the Syrian crisis has been outsourced to the weapons in Syria—to also monitor and investi- cess, including elections. In the near term, how- ISSG broadly, and specifically to P5 mem- gate the use of chemical weapons by non-state ever, Council options are limited as the day- bers Russia and the US, and has left very little actors more widely. While all Council members to-day oversight of resolutions 2254 and 2268 space for the Council to bring new thinking or agree this is a serious issue, the P3 and many has been outsourced to the ISSG broadly, and energy to help resolve the situation. other members believe it is a broad threat that Russia and the US in particular. Russia and the US have invested a great should not be tied to the mandate of the JIM, deal of political capital in the Geneva talks which is a mechanism specific to Syria with Council Dynamics and still seem to be on the path of engage- limited capacity. Many Council members are of the view that ment. However, some Council members are Most outcomes on Syria are agreed the government’s recent offensives, particular- concerned that the contours of any deal the between Russia and the US prior to agree- ly around Aleppo and the suburbs of Damas- parties might be pressured to accept will be ment by the Council. Egypt, New Zealand cus, confirm the regime’s preference for so far removed from the spirit and intent of and Spain lead on humanitarian issues.

Yemen

Expected Council Action President and Prime Minister Khaled Bahah did not start as scheduled on 18 April. The In June, the Secretary-General’s Special on 3 April. In his place, Hadi named Gen- Houthi and GPC delegation remained in Envoy for Yemen, Ismael Ould Cheikh eral Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar as Vice President Sana’a, citing heavy fighting and airstrikes Ahmed, is expected to brief the Council. and Ahmed bin Dagher as Prime Minister. by the Saudi Arabia-led coalition. Following Bahah decried the move as unconstitutional assurances from Kuwait and Oman that the Key Recent Developments on the grounds that the government must be cessation of hostilities would be respected, the Yemen has seen a lull in fighting over the approved by the parliament. Houthi/GPC delegation arrived in Kuwait on last two months amidst ongoing peace talks On 10 April, a cessation of hostilities com- 21 April. That evening the opening ceremony being held in Kuwait, which at press time menced in advance of the new round of peace for the new round was held. had entered their fifth week. In the lead- talks between the Yemen government and The talks have been focused around five up to the new round, Yemen President Houthi rebels and their allies in the General areas—withdrawal of militias and armed Abdo Rabbo Mansour Hadi dismissed Vice People’s Congress (GPC). However, talks groups, handover of heavy weapons to the

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2266 (24 February 2016) renewed the Yemen sanctions measures until 26 February 2017 and the mandate of the Panel of Experts until 27 March 2017. S/RES/2216 (14 April 2015) demanded the Houthis to withdraw from all seized areas and relinquish all seized arms and established an arms embargo against the Houthis and forces loyal to former President Saleh. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2016/5 (25 April 2016) welcomed the start of peace talks and requested the Secretary-General to provide a plan on how the Special Envoy’s office can further support the Yemeni parties.Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7672 (15 April 2016) was a briefing by the Special Envoy and OCHA deputy head Kyung-wha Kang.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Yemen (con’t)

state, interim security arrangements, resto- attacks killed 15 Yemeni soldiers on 12 May. arrangements, withdrawals, the handover of ration of state institutions and the resump- On 15 May, at least 31 people were killed heavy weapons, restoring state institutions tion of inclusive political dialogue, and how when an ISIL suicide bomber attacked police and resuming political dialogue. In a 24 May to deal with prisoners and detainees—with recruits queuing up outside a police station in letter, the Secretary-General sent the Coun- three working groups created to address these Mukalla. On 23 May, ISIL suicide bombers cil a plan on how the Special Envoy’s Office issues. Separately, a De-escalation and Coor- killed at least 40 army recruits at a base in Aden, could further support the parties, as request- dination Committee has been constituted and which has suffered from insecurity since Yemen ed in the April statement. The Secretary- is made up of representatives from both sides government and coalition forces took back the General proposed significantly expanding the to address reported violations of the cessation city from the Houthis last July. office in order to provide greater support to of hostilities. On 15 May, the Special Envoy Yemen continues to endure a severe the negotiations, the De-escalation and Coor- said that an agreement had been reached humanitarian crisis. According to OCHA dination Committee and the implementation “in principle” to free half of all prisoners and Operations Director John Ging, speaking at of any agreements emerging from peace talks detainees before the beginning of the Muslim a 17 May press conference following a recent such as disarmament or other security sec- holy month of Ramadan in the first week of trip to Yemen, 10 million people require basic tor issues. On 25 May, Ould Cheikh Ahmed June. Fundamental differences between the healthcare support and 7.6 million are severe- briefed Council members in consultations, sides seem to exist over transitional govern- ly food insecure, a classification that is one providing an update on the talks in order ing arrangements and the timing of armed step below a famine situation. Moreover, the for them to further consider the Secretary- groups’ withdrawals and disarmament. $1.8 million humanitarian response plan for General’s proposals. In a 26 May letter to the The government twice suspended its par- Yemen was only 16 percent funded. The ces- Secretary-General, the Council took note of ticipation in the talks. First, it suspended its sation of hostilities and the de-escalation of his proposals for the Special Envoy’s Office. participation from 1 to 4 May, claiming the fighting have had the positive effect of stem- OCHA head Stephen O’Brien briefed on the Houthis violated the cessation of hostilities by ming civilian casualties. humanitarian situation via video-teleconfer- seizing a base in Amran governorate from a On 2 May, the UN Verification and Inspec- ence in consultations on 27 May. military unit that had remained neutral in the tion Mechanism (UNVIM) finally became conflict. It did so a second time on 17 May. At operational. Efforts to create the UNVIM had Key Issues a news conference on 18 May, Foreign Min- been underway since June 2015 in order to Advancing peace talks, including in such ister Abdul-Malik al-Mekhlafi said that the improve commercial goods imports to Yemen, areas as transitional governing arrangements decision to suspend the government’s par- such as food and fuel. These had significant- and withdrawals and disarmament, and how ticipation was due to the Houthis’ unwilling- ly declined, due in large part to restrictions the Council can support this process remain ness to recognise the legitimacy of President on shipping imposed by the Saudi-led coali- key issues. Hadi, and he objected to the group’s seeking tion, which it says were meant to enforce the A related issue is how to address the a power-sharing arrangement. “We will not arms embargo established in resolution 2216 increasing perception of the obstruction- return until we get a letter from them that against the Houthis and forces loyal to former ist role of Hadi towards the talks. Hadi was commits them to the U.N. Security Council President Ali Abudallah Saleh. The UNVIM elected in 2012 on a single candidate ballot to resolutions, the Gulf [Cooperation Council] has responsibility for reviewing the manifests initially serve a two-year term as transitional initiative and the outcome of the [national] of commercial ships and approving ship- president, and could probably not be part of dialogue,” Al-Mekhlafi said. “The issue of ments within 48 hours to proceed to Yemeni a new consensus government. legitimacy is not subject to discussion.” ports not under the government’s control or Addressing Yemen’s humanitarian cri- According to a UN press release, during flagging a cargo for inspection. sis continues to be critical. Ensuring the a 21 May meeting with the Amir of Qatar A worrying development for the Yemen UNVIM’s effectiveness is a related issue. Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani and Secretary- economy and the population’s ability to pur- The threat posed by AQAP and ISIL General Ban Ki-Moon in Doha, Hadi con- chase essential goods was the sudden devalu- amidst the security vacuum created by the firmed that the government delegation would ation of Yemen’s currency in mid-May. The war remains a key concern. return to the talks as requested by the Amir government announced that the Central and the Secretary-General. Bank was close to depleting all of its reserves. Options During the cessation of hostilities, the Sau- Ensuring the Central Bank’s continued func- One option is for the Council to monitor di-led coalition and Yemen government turned tioning and reactivating the Social Welfare developments in peace talks and adopt an their attention to Al-Qaida in the Arabian Pen- Fund has been one of the considerations in outcome supporting new agreements emerg- insula (AQAP). Yemeni and coalition forces peace talks. ing from the talks. took back the port city of Mukalla in Hadra- The Council reacted to ongoing develop- If current political initiatives do not pro- mawt governorate, which AQAP had held since ments in the political process by adopting a duce results, the humanitarian situation does April 2015, shortly after the start of the Saudi- presidential statement on 25 April, welcom- not improve, or if heavy fighting resumes, led intervention. The Islamic State of Iraq and ing the start of peace talks in Kuwait. The then the Council could return to its consid- the Levant (ISIL) has since taken responsibil- Council called on the parties to develop a eration of a humanitarian resolution. Ele- ity for several deadly attacks in Mukalla. ISIL roadmap for implementing interim security ments for a resolution were proposed by New

22 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 Yemen (con’t)

Zealand in the beginning of March, and such only be solved through political negotiations. resolution (opposed by Saudi Arabia) as pros- a resolution could, inter alia, call on all par- They also share concerns over the humani- pects emerged to organise new talks. ties to allow unhindered humanitarian access tarian crisis and the need for the parties to During the current round of talks, the and ensure the safety of humanitarian per- do more to uphold international humanitar- Group of 18 Ambassadors to Yemen, which sonnel, urge parties to cooperate fully with ian law and protect civilians. The close rela- includes the P5 and Council members Egypt the UNVIM and demand that they adhere to tions of many members, particularly the P3 and Japan as well as Gulf countries, has been international human rights and international and Egypt, with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf united on the need for the two sides to remain humanitarian law, including taking all pre- countries has restrained the Council’s abil- in the negotiations. Kuwait, as host of the talks, cautions to avoid civilian casualties. ity over the past year to address these issues has been playing a particularly active role in An option for the 2140 Yemen Sanctions more forcefully. In general, since adopting pressuring the parties to remain engaged. Committee is to seek regular briefings from resolution 2216, the Council has relied on During the most recent consultations with OCHA on the operations of the UNVIM to the Special Envoy’s mediation efforts, with the Special Envoy, members supported the monitor its proper functioning. members hoping for progress on a political Secretary-General’s proposals to expand the process that the Council can then support. Office of the Special Envoy, as formally con- Council and Wider Dynamics Members agreed to put on hold consider- veyed in a 26 May letter to Secretary-General. Council members agree that the conflict can ation of a politically sensitive humanitarian

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action The 9,800-strong US military presence Taliban have stalled, the government reached In June, the Council will hold its quarterly assisting Afghan security forces is current- an agreement on 18 May with insurgent lead- debate on Afghanistan, during which it will ly scheduled to be reduced to 5,500 by the er Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, head of the Hezb- consider the Secretary-General’s 90-day end of the year. However, the commander of i-Islami militant group. The group was at the report on the UN Assistance Mission in NATO and US forces in Afghanistan, Gen- height of its power before the Taliban took Afghanistan (UNAMA). Nicholas Haysom, eral John Nicholson, is expected to make a over the country in 1997 but has been less the outgoing Secretary-General’s Special recommendation to US President Barack active in recent years. The proposed agree- Representative in Afghanistan and head of Obama in the near future as to whether ment would reportedly grant Hekmatyar UNAMA, is expected to brief. current troop levels should be maintained and his group amnesty for past offences (the UNAMA’s mandate expires on 17 March beyond 2016. The US is the main troop con- group is accused of numerous human rights 2017. tributor to the NATO mission in Afghanistan, abuses) and the release of specified Hezb-i- which numbers roughly 13,000 troops. Islami prisoners. In addition, the government Key Recent Developments Reconciliation efforts have made little would pledge to make efforts to remove Hek- The insurgency continues to take a heavy progress. The Taliban has so far been reluc- matyar from international sanctions list. Hek- toll on the population and Afghan security tant to engage in talks with the Quadrilateral matyar has been listed on the 1267/1989 Al- forces. The Taliban’s increased activity and Coordination Group (QCG), which consists Qaida sanctions list since 20 February 2003. military gains in the country—as well as of Afghan, Chinese, Pakistani and US officials. The Council held its last quarterly debate activity by Al-Qaida and the Islamic State of On 21 May, a US drone strike in Baluch- on Afghanistan on 15 March. Briefing the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in various areas istan province, Pakistan, killed Mullah Akhtar Council, Haysom, who will soon take on the in the east—have been met with resistance Muhammad Mansour, the leader of the Tali- role of the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy by Afghan security forces with the assistance ban. US President Barack Obama said in a for Sudan and South Sudan, said bluntly that of NATO. In April, the Taliban announced statement that “Mansour rejected efforts by it would be an achievement for the Afghan its annual spring offensive, vowing large-scale the Afghan government to seriously engage national unity government not to collapse attacks against government strongholds to in peace talks” and that the Taliban should in 2016. He said the main challenges facing oust the government from power. Reacting enter the reconciliation talks. Pakistan, which the Afghan leadership include an intensifying to one such attack targeting civilians, Coun- apparently was informed of the attack only insurgency, poor economic growth and high cil members issued a press statement on 19 after the fact, issued a statement on 22 May unemployment, an increasingly divided politi- April, condemning a terrorist attack in Kabul denouncing the attack as a violation of the cal environment and the need to make prog- by the Taliban that claimed at least 28 lives country’s sovereignty. ress towards sustainable peace. He emphasised and injured more than 300 people. While reconciliation efforts with the the vital importance of securing continued

UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2274 (15 March 2016) renewed the mandate of UNAMA until 17 March 2017. Secretary-General’s Report S/2016/218 (7 March 2016) was on the situation in Afghanistan and its implications for international peace and security. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7645 (15 March 2016) was the quarterly debate on Afghanistan. Security Council Press Statement SC/12331 (19 April 2016) condemned a terrorist attack in Kabul by the Taliban that claimed at least 28 lives and injured more than 300 people.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 23 Afghanistan (con’t) international support for Afghanistan, includ- Human Rights-Related Developments anti-insurgency, reconciliation and anti-cor- ing at the upcoming July NATO summit in The special rapporteur on summary executions, ruption efforts, and to learn how it can fur- Warsaw and the ministerial conference on Christof Heyns, and the special rapporteur on ther assist efforts on the ground. torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading Afghanistan in Brussels in October. At the treatment or punishment, Juan Méndez, released Warsaw summit, NATO is expected to reaf- a joint statement on 10 May, condemning the Council Dynamics firm its commitment to Afghanistan; donors execution on 8 May of six alleged members of There is widespread concern among Council are expected to make financial commitments illegal armed groups in Afghanistan for “serious members about the extreme fragility of the to the country at the Brussels conference. As crimes and crimes against civilians”. The execu- security environment and the toll that the tions were the first to take place in Afghanistan Afghanistan relies on external funding for 69 since February 2015, breaking the unofficial mor- conflict continues to take on civilians. These percent of its expenditures, Haysom said that atorium implemented by the government. They issues will likely be a major focus of sever- a drop in international support would have a were carried out despite the absence of fair-trial al members’ interventions during the June devastating effect on the country’s economy. guarantees and the continued practice of torture UNAMA debate. Finally, Haysom noted that in 2015 more than to obtain confessions, the statement said. The Several Council members also recognise statement also expressed a concern shared 11,000 Afghan civilians, a quarter of whom with UNAMA that executions will not contribute that the upcoming Warsaw NATO summit were children, were killed or injured in the to peace in Afghanistan, and strongly urged the and Brussels conference are pivotal in con- continuing fighting with insurgents. government of Afghanistan to return to a morato- tinuing international support for Afghanistan. During the debate, the Council adopted rium on executions with a view to abolishing the During the last debate, China, New Zealand resolution 2274, renewing the mandate of death penalty. and the UK emphasised the need for the gov- UNAMA until 17 March 2017. UNAMA’s ernment to tackle corruption and to ensure tasks continue to be, among other things, to Key Issues that aid assists the country in developing a focus on providing good offices, promote The key issue for the Council is how to viable and self-sustaining government. peace and reconciliation, monitor and pro- address the deteriorating security situation, There is also broad emphasis in the Coun- mote human rights and the protection of its negative impact on the country’s stability cil on the importance of the reconciliation civilians and promote good governance. and the toll the conflict is taking on the civil- process in bringing stability to Afghanistan. The resolution expresses support for ian population. Members realise the difficulty of promoting Afghanistan in its fight against terrorism and A related issue is whether it is possible to reconciliation at the present time, in a con- violent extremism and welcomes the gov- generate momentum for reconciliation efforts, text in which the Taliban has stepped up its ernment’s cooperation with partners in the given the ongoing heavy fighting between the violence and demonstrated little interest in region to fight extremists, criminal groups insurgency and government forces. negotiations. At the same time, they see no and other armed groups. (These new ele- The links between drug production and alternative for achieving peace in the country. ments mirror parts of the 2015 General trafficking and the insurgency is an ongoing Several Council members, in particular Assembly resolution on Afghanistan.) On issue. France and Russia, and more recently, also the initiative of New Zealand, the resolution Egypt, have regularly raised concerns about also strongly condemns the flow of small Options the connection between drug production and arms, light weapons and improvised explosive The Council could adopt a resolution or pres- trafficking and the insurgency. device (IED) components to the Taliban and idential statement that: During the 15 March briefing, Japan sug- encourages states to share information, devel- • deplores the high number of civilian casu- gested a Council visiting mission to Afghan- op partnerships and create national strategies alties and demands that all sides avoid istan. (Japan is a key donor to Afghanistan, and capacities to counter IEDs. killing and injuring civilians, recalling that most recently focusing on the enhancement targeting civilians is a war crime; of Afghanistan’s security forces through Sanctions-Related Developments • encourages efforts by the international capacity-building programs and providing The 1988 Taliban Sanctions Committee met on community to support reconciliation in the salaries of the Afghan National Police.) 20 April, focusing on counter-narcotics efforts. Afghanistan; and Council members have held preliminary talks Afghanistan’s deputy minister of the interior, Baz Mohammed Ahmadi, addressed the Committee, • emphasises the importance of develop- for making such a visit, which will face logis- as did the Committee’s Monitoring Team, which ment assistance in promoting Afghani- tical and security-related difficulties, in July. discussed the efforts of the Combined Maritime stan’s stability. Spain is the penholder on Afghanistan, Force in the Arabian Sea (consisting of the forces The Council may also decide to vis- while New Zealand is the chair of the 1988 of 26 NATO states and Thailand) to track narcotic it Afghanistan to show its support for Sanctions Committee. flows from Afghanistan.

24 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 UNDOF (Golan Heights)

Expected Council Action Tehran-backed Lebanese Shi’a militia fight- Badreddine was killed near the Damascus In June, the Council is expected to extend for ing on the side of the Syrian regime. airport in artillery shelling by Sunni reb- six months the mandate of the UN Disen- On 10 May, Israel struck a weapons con- el groups. At least one Hezbollah official gagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which voy in Syria near the Lebanese border. Israel suggested Israel might be responsible. The expires on 30 June. A representative of the has a neutral policy vis-à-vis the Syrian cri- Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Department of Peacekeeping Operations will sis except to interdict weapons shipments via there had been no shelling near the airport brief Council members in consultations on Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel nei- at the time of the blast that killed Badred- the UNDOF report, due on 13 June. ther confirms nor denies specific incidents dine. Israel declined to comment. UNDOF was established in 1974 to moni- of striking Hezbollah targets in Syria, but in tor the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. December 2015 Israeli Prime Minister Ben- Key Issues jamin Netanyahu, in a rare public admission, Considering the security situation in the Key Recent Developments said, “We [Israel] occasionally carry out oper- Golan, the full return of UNDOF to the Due to the spillover of the Syrian civil war ations in Syria to prevent that country from Syrian side seems unlikely in the foresee- into UNDOF’s area of operations, most becoming a front against us.” able future, significantly constraining the UNDOF peacekeepers relocated from the Since Russia commenced airstrikes in Syr- mission’s ability to carry out its monitoring Bravo (Syrian) side to the Alpha (Israeli) ia in support of President Bashar al-Assad tasks. In this respect, an issue for the Coun- side of the ceasefire line in September 2014. in September 2015, Israel and Russia have cil is whether Israel should be asked to allow The majority of personnel remain based on made arrangements to avoid clashes of their UNDOF more mobility for its patrolling the Alpha (Israeli) side, resulting in restrict- respective forces operating in Syrian airspace. tasks on the Israeli side of the ceasefire line, ed mission mobility and operational capacity. Media reports indicate that Russia has fired especially access to hilltops for enhanced Some peacekeepers remain on the Syrian side on Israeli military aircraft on at least two occa- observation. There is also the issue of whether at Mt. Hermon. Mt. Hermon is strategically sions, without specifying dates, locations or UNDOF may use new technologies, such as important to Israel, which could feel com- whether Israeli aircraft had been hit. Neither unmanned, unarmed aerial vehicles or satel- pelled to man the position itself if there were country has confirmed these allegations, but lite imagery, to carry out observation tasks. no UNDOF security presence there. This Netanyahu met Russian President Vladimir The use of such technology would require would be an especially difficult challenge to Putin on 21 April to seek enhanced coordina- permission from both Israel and Syria, which regional security and the 1974 disengage- tion to avoid “unnecessary confrontations”. neither party has yet granted. ment agreement. On 26 April, the Department of Politi- The other primary concern for the Coun- The March 2016 UNDOF report detailed cal Affairs briefed Council members on the cil remains the ceasefire violations. The pres- a somewhat calmer situation since January Golan Heights under “any other business”. ence of Syrian armed forces and heavy weap- in the northern sector of UNDOF’s area of Egypt, on behalf of the Arab League, request- ons in the area of separation monitored by operations because of a local truce between ed the briefing following remarks by Netan- UNDOF, Syrian airstrikes, Israeli airstrikes the Syrian government and armed opposition yahu that the Golan Heights would remain and artillery fire over the ceasefire line are all groups. The forthcoming UNDOF report is forever under Israeli sovereignty. Netanyahu’s violations of the disengagement agreement. expected to state that this truce is holding, remarks were a response to the inclusion of No military forces other than those of UND- resulting in less fighting, albeit with sporad- the return of the Golan Heights to Syria as a OF are allowed in the area of separation. ic exchanges of fire. In the southern sector “point of commonality” between the parties there are ongoing clashes between govern- at the intra-Syrian political talks facilitated Options ment forces and armed opposition groups, by the UN in Geneva. Israel captured the UNDOF was established as a Syria-based and also fighting between rebel groups, par- Golan Heights in the 1967 Six-Day War and mission. How it operates is subject to the ticularly Al Nusra Front and the Yarmouk annexed it illegally in 1981. Under interna- disengagement agreement, and any changes Martyrs Brigade. tional law, the Golan Heights is considered an require agreement by Israel and Syria, which The civil war in Syria continues to occupied territory. In elements to the press, is unlikely to be forthcoming. adversely affect UNDOF’s ability to func- Council members stressed that the status of In the resolution renewing the UNDOF tion. Despite lower levels of violence in cer- the Golan Heights remains unchanged. mandate, the Council could: tain areas of UNDOF’s area of operations, On 13 May, Mustafa Badreddine— • reiterate the need for all parties to exercise the overall security situation is not yet condu- a Hezbollah commander believed to be restraint; cive to UNDOF’s return to the Bravo (Syr- directing the group’s Syria operations— • urge Israel and Syria to allow the use of ian) side. The situation in the Golan increases was killed in Damascus. Badreddine was new technologies so UNDOF could better the possibility of escalating tensions not only one of the four people being tried in absen- fulfil its observation tasks; between Israel and Syria but also between tia by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon for • urge Israel and Syria to allow the use of Israel and Lebanon because of the overt the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese enhanced equipment to better enable presence in the Golan of Hezbollah—the Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hezbollah said UNDOF’s force protection capabilities;

UN DOCUMENTS ON UNDOF Security Council Resolution S/RES/2257 (22 December 2015) renewed UNDOF. Secretary-General’s Report S/2016/242 (14 March 2016) was the latest UNDOF report.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 25 UNDOF (Golan Heights) (con’t)

• urge Israel and Syria to agree to establish Council and Wider Dynamics exacerbated by the presence of Hezbollah. more UNDOF crossing points between Israel and Syria value UNDOF’s presence The Council has generally agreed that the Alpha and Bravo sides, since the and want to see the return of the mission to UNDOF contributes to stability in the region Quneitra crossing was lost to rebel groups the Bravo side. However, the security situ- in the absence of a peace agreement between in September 2014; and ation is not conducive to the mission’s full Israel and Syria. However, its liaison func- • urge Israel to allow UNDOF to establish redeployment back to the Syrian side of the tion is particularly important now in order to more temporary observation posts on the ceasefire line. avoid further negative security implications Alpha side, given the mission’s limited Council members are concerned about for the region. mobility there. armed clashes in the area of operations and Since June 2012, Russia and the US have about the tension between Israel and Syr- been the co-penholders on resolutions renew- ia along the armistice line, which has been ing UNDOF.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Expected Council Action dubbed by rivals as “slippage”. While Kabila DRC police dispersed those outside the In June, the Security Council is expected has not commented publicly on his political courtroom with tear gas. Katumbi denied to renew the 1533 Democratic Republic future, the government’s official line is that the accusations made against him. (Appar- of the Congo (DRC) sanctions regime and Kabila will abide by the constitution. In any ently, Katumbi wrote a letter to MONUSCO the mandate of the Group of Experts assist- event, as preparations for elections are at a requesting protection the day after announc- ing the DRC Sanctions Committee, both of standstill, it seems less likely that presidential ing his candidacy, but MONUSCO leader- which expire at the end of June. elections can or will be held on time. ship decided it could not get involved with a The annual report of the Group will be Tensions are also high regarding the ability candidate in this way.) presented to the Council by the Chair of of opposition parties to participate in political More tensions arose when the DRC Con- the Committee, Ambassador Amr Abdellatif activities leading up to the elections. Special stitutional Court decided on 11 May that the Aboulatta (Egypt). Representative of the Secretary-General and constitution permits the president to remain The mandate of the UN Organization Sta- head of MONUSCO Maman Sambo Sidik- in office until the installation of the newly- bilization Mission in the Democratic Repub- ou and others have warned that the politi- elected president. The decision could allow lic of the Congo (MONUSCO) expires on cal polarisation has heightened tensions and Kabila to retain his position beyond the end 31 March 2017. contributed to an atmosphere of increased of 2016. Opposition leaders view the decision harassment and human rights violations, as “unconstitutional” and continue to main- Key Recent Developments mostly against opposition members, civil tain that Kabila lacks authority to remain in On the political front, the presidential elec- society representatives and journalists. power beyond his current term. tions scheduled for November continue to On 4 May, DRC Justice Minister Alexis On 17 May, reports in the media sug- be a deeply divisive issue in the DRC, given Mwamba announced a probe into the con- gested that leaders from the G7 opposition the absence of an agreed electoral calendar or duct of presidential candidate Moïse Katum- coalition (a group of seven opposition groups a budget for the elections. The DRC’s elec- bi, accusing him of recruiting US mercenar- in the DRC) visited the US in an attempt toral commission warned in January that it ies as part of his security detail. The former to persuade the Obama Administration and would take at least 13 months to conduct a governor of Katanga province and a wealthy members of Congress to impose sanctions census to update the voter register ahead of businessman, Katumbi resigned in Septem- on Kabila to force him to abide by the con- the vote, pushing any presidential election ber 2015 and left Kabila’s party after accus- stitution and hold the presidential elections into 2017. Many fear that President Joseph ing him of attempting to delay the presiden- as scheduled. Deputy spokesperson of the US Kabila intends to stay in power after the sec- tial elections. department of state, Mark Toner, said on 22 ond of his constitutionally-mandated two Katumbi appeared before the Lubum- May that the US is reviewing the possibility terms expires at the end of 2016, and that bashi court a total of three times between of imposing sanctions. the impractically dense electoral calendar 9 and 14 May accompanied by support- While attention is focused on the politi- and consequent delays are part of a strategy ers, both outside and within the court room. cal situation, rebel groups continue to spread

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DRC Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2277 (30 March 2016) renewed the mandate of MONUSCO for a year. S/RES/2198 (29 January 2015) renewed the DRC sanctions regime and the mandate of the Group of Experts. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2015/20 (9 November 2015) stressed the importance of neu- tralising armed groups in the DRC and expressed the Council’s concern that joint operations between the Congolese army and the Force Intervention Brigade in cooperation with the whole of MONUSCO had yet to resume. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2016/232 (9 March 2016) was the implementation of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the DRC. S/2016/233 (9 March 2016) was on MONUSCO. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7654 (23 March 2016) was a briefing on the Secretary-General’s MONUSCO report. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General Maman Sambo Sidikou (Niger) MONUSCO Force Commander Lieutenant General Derick Mbuyiselo Mgwebi (South Africa) MONUSCO Size, Composition and Cost of Mission Strength as of 31 March 2016: 16,936 troops (including 456 military observers and 1,245 police), 816 interna- tional civilian personnel, 2,654 local civilian staff and 399 UN volunteers. Approved budget (1 July 2015-30 June 2016): $1.33 billion Mission duration: July 2010 to present

26 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 Democratic Republic of the Congo (con’t)

violence in eastern DRC. The operations with weapons, ammunition and FARDC uniforms. • condemn human rights abuses related to of the Forces Armées de la République Mundos denies the accusations. Apparently the the pre-election developments and urge Démocratique du Congo (FARDC) against Group added that other FARDC officers serving the government to ensure that free, fair in the area have also been cooperating with ADF the Force Démocratiques de Libération du elements. and credible elections are held as soon as Rwanda (FDLR) continue, though questions The Group’s report also discusses violations possible; regarding their effectiveness remain. Accord- of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea • urge the Secretary-General to appoint a ing to the annual report of the Group of (DPRK) sanctions regimes. The DPRK has sup- mediator to help facilitate a DRC national Experts assisting the DRC Sanctions Com- plied the FARDC and Congolese police with pis- dialogue and support the work of AU Spe- tols, which are also available on the black market mittee, the operation has disrupted FDLR in Kinshasa, and sent 30 instructors to provide cial Envoy Edem Kodjo to facilitate such channels of financing and more than 1,000 training for the presidential guard and special dialogue; FDLR fighters have surrendered. How- forces. The DRC denies these reports. • call on all political actors to abide by the ever, the FARDC’s use of local militias to While much attention was given to these constitution and its term limits; engage the FDLR means that the civilians issues in the media, the report apparently focus- • call on opposition parties to enter imme- es more on the illegal trade in natural resources, are still affected by armed groups, even in and particularly gold. The funding of rebel groups diately into a national dialogue in order to areas vacated by the FDLR. During a rou- through illicit trade has been documented for sev- reach consensus on an electoral calendar tine police check in Goma, the FDLR chief eral years by the Group and continues to be a and hold elections on time or as soon as of staff, Leopard Mujyambare, was arrested. focus for their reports. In the current report, atten- possible thereafter; and He has been transferred to Kinshasa, where tion is also given to the role of criminal networks • call on neighbouring states to cease assis- in illicit trade, which endangers the security and authorities will decide whether to try him or tance to rebel groups operating in the livelihood of civilians in the DRC where the miner- extradite him to Rwanda. als are extracted. Specifically, it seems that illicit region. The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an gold from the DRC has found its way to markets The Council (or a representative group of Islamist Ugandan group, continues to wreak in Burundi, Uganda and Dubai. Council members) may also consider visit- havoc in North Kivu. On 4 May, suspected Another element apparently raised in the ing the country during the electoral period to report concerns what is known about the ADF. ADF members killed 17 civilians in North take stock of the situation and deliver a strong The report suggests that while the ADF is known Kivu’s Beni territory. Nine other civilians as an anti-Ugandan Islamist group, over time its political message to interlocutors. were killed in an ADF attack on three villages structure has changed and it has incorporated on 6 May, according to local authorities. local DRC groups in its ranks, changing its struc- Council Dynamics ture, organisation and goals. Thus, in reality, there While Council members all share concerns is much unknown regarding the affiliation of local Sanctions-Related Developments over the political tensions surrounding the groups with the ADF and the connection between The 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee was briefed various rebel groups in Beni with the ADF. issue of elections and related human rights by Sidikou and Sebastian Fasanello, chief of abuses, they are split in their attitudes towards MONUSCO’s Joint Mission Analysis Centre, on 1 March on MONUSCO’s arms embargo-monitor- the approach to be taken by the Council on ing mandate. Paul Heslop, chief of the UN Mine Key Issues the issue. As with divisions regarding Nku- Action Service Programme Planning and Man- The key issue for the Council in June is runziza’s third term in Burundi, some view agement Section, briefed on issues of weapons renewing the sanctions regime and the man- this issue mainly as an internal constitution- management in the DRC. date of the Group of Experts. al matter that should be dealt with through On 13 May, the Group of Experts briefed the Committee on their annual report. Though the A serious concern is the political tension local institutions and regulations such as the report is yet to be made public, media reports surrounding the electoral calendar and Kabi- Constitutional Court. Other states have a suggest that Rwanda continues to provide train- la’s possible attempt to remain in power. more negative view of actions that seemed ing, financing and logistical support for Burundian The continued violence of rebel groups to have been taken to override the constitu- rebels seeking to overthrow Burundi’s President still suffered by the population in North Kivu tional order, which may erode the relatively Pierre Nkurunziza, who won a controversial third term in June 2015. Rwanda has repeatedly denied remains a serious threat to peace and security. calm security situation in western DRC and such accusations. The DRC and Burundi have Wider regional stability in the Great Lakes result in violence between the government sent letters to the Council in the past calling for region and its relation to the DRC are also and its opposition. These countries note that action against Rwanda for assisting Burundian matters of concern. the unfolding political situation in the DRC rebels operating in the DRC. is part of a wider regional trend of leaders Media reports also suggest that the Group states that FARDC Brigadier General Muhindo Options unwilling to relinquish power. Akili Mundos, commander of the FARDC offen- The Council will adopt a resolution renew- France is the penholder on the DRC and sive against the ADF between August 2014 and ing the sanctions regime and the mandate of Ambassador Amr Abdellatif Aboulatta (Egypt) June 2015, financed and equipped ADF elements the Group. In addition, the resolution could: chairs the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 27 Notable Dates for June Security Council Report Staff Ian Martin REPORT DUE REPORTS FOR CONSIDERATION IN JUNE REQUESTING DOCUMENT Executive Director

Joanna Weschler 20 April SG report on conflict-related sexual violence S/RES/2106 Deputy Executive Director & (S/2016/361) Director of Research

13 May SG report on the protection of civilians S/PRST/2015/23 Amanda Roberts Coordinating Editor & Senior Research Analyst 16 May SG report on UNSMIL (Libya) S/RES/2273 Shamala Kandiah Thompson What’s in Blue Editor & Senior Research 27 May OPCW report on the implementation of resolution S/RES/2118 Analyst 2118 (Syrian chemical weapons) Astrid Forberg Ryan Senior Research Analyst & Development 30 May SG report on UNOCA and the Lord’s Resistance S/PRST/2015/12 Officer Army (Central Africa) Paul Romita 31 May SG report on the implementation of resolution 2253 S/RES/2253 Deputy Editor of What’s in Blue & Senior Research Analyst regarding ISIL Victor Casanova Abos 31 May Assessment Report of the Residual Mechanism for S/RES/1966 Research Analyst International Criminal Tribunals Dahlia Morched Research Analyst & 31 May ICTY Assessment Report S/RES/1534 Communications Coordinator

Vladimir Sesar 2 June SG report on UNAMID (Darfur) S/RES/2228 Research Analyst

7 June SG report on MINUSMA (Mali) S/RES/2227 Eran Sthoeger Research Analyst

10 June Report of the UN-OPCW Joint Investigative S/RES/2235 Benjamin Villanti Mechanism (Syrian chemical weapons) Research Analyst Robbin VanNewkirk 13 June SG report on UNDOF (Golan Heights) S/RES/2257 Publications Coordinator

Lindiwe Knutson 13 June SG report on UNAMA (Afghanistan) S/RES/2274 Research Assistant

15 June Final report of the Group of Experts of the 1533 S/RES/2198 Audrey Waysse Operations Manager DRC Sanctions Committee Maritza Tenerelli 17 June SG report on the humanitarian situation in Syria S/RES/2139 Administrative Assistant

Stevenson Swanson Copy Editor (Consultant) MANDATES EXPIRE RELEVANT DOCUMENT Security Council Report is a non- profit organisation supported by the 1 June South Sudan sanctions S/RES/2280 Governments of Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, 15 June UNSMIL (Libya) S/RES/2273 Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, 30 June MINUSMA (Mali) S/RES/2227 Republic of Korea, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Timor-Leste and Turkey, and Carnegie Corporation, Humanity 30 June UNAMID (Darfur) S/RES/2228 United and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. 30 June UNDOF (Golan Heights) S/RES/2257 Design Point Five, NY

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28 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2016