Systemic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Buildings and Infrastructure in the City of ,

Kyriazis Pitilakis, Sotiris Argyroudis, Jacopo Selva, Kalliopi Kakderi (AUTH) Bijan Khazai (KIT)

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 1 Application to the city of Thessaloniki  New fragility curves (buildings, bridges) (UPAT)  Seismic hazard – Geotechnical zonation  Seismic risk – losses - Building stock (Municipality of Thessaloniki) - Main road network (interaction with buildings) - Main electric power network (transmission system) - Main water supply system (interaction with electric power network)  Transportation accessibility assessment (METU)  Shelter demand assessment (KIT)  (harbor components, interaction with electric power network) (AUTH)

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 2 Seismicity - Tectonics

Geographical distribution of earthquake events with M ≥4.0

Tectonics

SHARE 2013 2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 3 Seismic zones

22°0'0"E 23°0'0"E 24°0'0"E 25°0'0"E 26°0'0"E

SHARE 2013 42°0'0"N 42°0'0"N MKAS212

MKAS389

GRAS392

41°0'0"N 41°0'0"N

GRAS388 GRAS390

40°0'0"N 40°0'0"N SYNER-G application

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 4

22°0'0"E 23°0'0"E 24°0'0"E 25°0'0"E 26°0'0"E Geotechnical classification according to EC8

22°40'0"E 22°42'0"E 22°44'0"E 22°46'0"E 22°48'0"E 22°50'0"E 22°52'0"E 22°54'0"E 22°56'0"E 22°58'0"E 23°0'0"E 23°2'0"E

40°44'0"N 40°44'0"N

40°42'0"N 40°42'0"N

40°40'0"N 40°40'0"NGeotechnical classification (EC8)

40°38'0"N 40°38'0"N

40°36'0"N 40°36'0"N

40°34'0"N 40°34'0"N A B 40°32'0"N 40°32'0"N C

22°40'0"E 22°42'0"E 22°44'0"E 22°46'0"E 22°48'0"E 22°50'0"E 22°52'0"E 22°54'0"E 22°56'0"E 22°58'0"E 23°0'0"E 23°2'0"E

40°30'0"N 40°44'0"N 40°30'0"N 40°44'0"N

22°40'0"E 22°42'0"E 22°44'0"E 22°46'0"E 22°48'0"E 22°50'0"E 22°52'0"E 22°54'0"E 22°56'0"E 22°58'0"E 23°0'0"E 23°2'0"E

40°42'0"N 40°42'0"N

40°40'0"N 40°40'0"N

40°38'0"N 40°38'0"N

40°36'0"N 40°36'0"N Liquefaction susceptibility (HAZUS, NIBS 2004) 40°34'0"N 40°34'0"N None0: None

40°32'0"N Moderate3: Moderate 40°32'0"N High5: Very High

40°30'0"N 40°30'0"N

22°40'0"E 22°42'0"E 22°44'0"E 22°46'0"E 22°48'0"E 22°50'0"E 22°52'0"E 22°54'0"E 22°56'0"E 22°58'0"E 23°0'0"E 23°2'0"E

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 5 Sub-City Districts – European Urban Audit (Eurostat)

20 Sub Districts

ID SCD name Population 0 -Dikastirion squ. 15868 1 St.George-Rotonda 19260 2 University-Int.Exhib.Center-White Tower 21376 3 PAOK-Malakopi 21376 4 Papafio-St.Constantine-Military Hospital 17385 5 -St.Fanourios-Ydragogio 18542 6 Vlatadon-St.Dimitrios-Lachanagora 16319 7 Municipal Hospital-Fylakes (Penitentiary) 16709 8 Athinon 18860 9 Analipsi-Dermatologiko 19619 10 Nea Paralia-Municipal Library 20134 11 Railway Station-Xirokrini 16669 12 Pasha Hamam-Tyroloi 15454 13 -Exohes 26815 14 Nomarchia-Vafopoulio-Depau 25455 15 School for the blind-Sailing Club 15822 16 Constantinoupoleos-Delfon-Botsari 16761 17 Ippokratio 16712 18 Ecclesiastic School-Kato Toumba 20724 19 Makedonia Palace-Paedagogiki Academia 16729

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 6 Building Stock – Study area • buildings blocks (study area): 2,893 • buildings (study area): 27,738 (92% R/C, 8% masonry) • inhabitants: 376,589 (municipality), 790,824 (city)

Number of buildings nTotal 0 - 5 5 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 80 >80

0 500 1,000 2,000

Meters

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 7 Building stock – Average Losses (Deaths) 0 Results (10,000 runs) 10 0 Mean Annual Frequency 10 -1 10 of exceedance

-1 10 ) -2 10 -2 10 deaths - -3

BDG-deaths 10

-3 

BDG-deaths 10  (BDG

λ -4 -4 10 10 deaths with Tm= 500 years (λ=0.002)

-5 -03 -5 10 0.255x10 x 790.824 = 201 deaths 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 -3 -3 BDG-deaths x 10 DeathsBDG-deaths (% of total pop.) x 10

-5 x 10 -5 1.5 x 10 1.4 1.5 1.4 moving average mean 1.2 mean 1.2mean +/- std 1 mean +/- std 1 0.8

0.6 0.8 BDG-deaths -05 0.4 0.6 0.48x10 x 790.824 = 4 deaths BDG-deaths (population) 0.2 0.4

0 0.2

BDG (deaths % of total pop.) % total of BDG (deaths 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 # runs # runs 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 # runs 2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 9 Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)

Collapses

Yield

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 10 Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)

Deaths

Injured

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 11 Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)

Displaced people (good weather)

Displaced people (bad weather)

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 12 Application to RDN of Thessaloniki

Bridges/Overpass: • Single span (non-monolithic): 15 • Multiple spans: 44

Roads (236 km) • Freeway, Major arterial: 172 km • Secondary arterial, Collective roads: 64 km

• Road distance <= 5m from buildings: 20 km

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 13 Network connectivity: Performance Indicators

Simple Connectivity Loss (SCL): Connectivity loss between TAZs Weighted Connectivity loss (WCL): Weighted (over travel speed) connectivity loss between TAZs

Bridge/road Blocked by Blocked by failure buildings overpass bridges

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 14 Correlation of broken bridges to network connectivity

Ring road Ring road Interchange K18 Interchange K17

Interchange (Monastiriou)

Interchange with railway

Road to airport

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 15 Road Network Risk Curve Effect of interaction with collapsed buildings

(λ)

Frequency

Interaction with BDG exceedance

of Mean Annual Mean

no interaction with BDG

20% 33% Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL)

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 16 Application to Water Supply System of Thessaloniki

Features: - 21 pumps - 11 tanks - pipes ~280 km - 437 demand nodes

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 17 Correlation of damaged pipes & broken EPN transmission stations to network connectivity

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 18 Water Supply System Risk Curve Effect of interaction with Electric Power Network (λ)

Frequency

interaction of exceedance

Mean Annual Mean no interaction

1% 1.8% Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL) System functionality Tm= 1000 years of WCL

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 19 Multi-criteria Shelter Demand Model

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 20 Shelter Needs Model

Uninhabitable Buildings (Bad Weather Conditions)

SCD_WGS84Shelter Needs Index Uninhabitable(SNI) Buildings Goal 0,0000000.00 - 0. - 030,051637 low 0,0516380.03 - 0.06 - 0,140218 0,1402190.06 - 0.19 - 0,292172 0,2921730.19 - 0.33 - 0,552840 0,5528410.33 - 0 -.61 1,000000 high

2ECEES  SYNER-G Special Session  Istanbul, 27 August 2014 21