Systemic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Buildings and Infrastructure in the City of Thessaloniki, Greece
Kyriazis Pitilakis, Sotiris Argyroudis, Jacopo Selva, Kalliopi Kakderi (AUTH) Bijan Khazai (KIT)
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 1 Application to the city of Thessaloniki New fragility curves (buildings, bridges) (UPAT) Seismic hazard – Geotechnical zonation Seismic risk – losses - Building stock (Municipality of Thessaloniki) - Main road network (interaction with buildings) - Main electric power network (transmission system) - Main water supply system (interaction with electric power network) Transportation accessibility assessment (METU) Shelter demand assessment (KIT) Port of Thessaloniki (harbor components, interaction with electric power network) (AUTH)
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 2 Seismicity - Tectonics
Geographical distribution of earthquake events with M ≥4.0
Tectonics
SHARE 2013 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 3 Seismic zones
22°0'0"E 23°0'0"E 24°0'0"E 25°0'0"E 26°0'0"E
SHARE 2013 42°0'0"N 42°0'0"N MKAS212
MKAS389
GRAS392
41°0'0"N 41°0'0"N
GRAS388 GRAS390
40°0'0"N 40°0'0"N SYNER-G application
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 4
22°0'0"E 23°0'0"E 24°0'0"E 25°0'0"E 26°0'0"E Geotechnical classification according to EC8
22°40'0"E 22°42'0"E 22°44'0"E 22°46'0"E 22°48'0"E 22°50'0"E 22°52'0"E 22°54'0"E 22°56'0"E 22°58'0"E 23°0'0"E 23°2'0"E
40°44'0"N 40°44'0"N
40°42'0"N 40°42'0"N
40°40'0"N 40°40'0"NGeotechnical classification (EC8)
40°38'0"N 40°38'0"N
40°36'0"N 40°36'0"N
40°34'0"N 40°34'0"N A B 40°32'0"N 40°32'0"N C
22°40'0"E 22°42'0"E 22°44'0"E 22°46'0"E 22°48'0"E 22°50'0"E 22°52'0"E 22°54'0"E 22°56'0"E 22°58'0"E 23°0'0"E 23°2'0"E
40°30'0"N 40°44'0"N 40°30'0"N 40°44'0"N
22°40'0"E 22°42'0"E 22°44'0"E 22°46'0"E 22°48'0"E 22°50'0"E 22°52'0"E 22°54'0"E 22°56'0"E 22°58'0"E 23°0'0"E 23°2'0"E
40°42'0"N 40°42'0"N
40°40'0"N 40°40'0"N
40°38'0"N 40°38'0"N
40°36'0"N 40°36'0"N Liquefaction susceptibility (HAZUS, NIBS 2004) 40°34'0"N 40°34'0"N None0: None
40°32'0"N Moderate3: Moderate 40°32'0"N High5: Very High
40°30'0"N 40°30'0"N
22°40'0"E 22°42'0"E 22°44'0"E 22°46'0"E 22°48'0"E 22°50'0"E 22°52'0"E 22°54'0"E 22°56'0"E 22°58'0"E 23°0'0"E 23°2'0"E
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 5 Sub-City Districts – European Urban Audit (Eurostat)
20 Sub Districts
ID SCD name Population 0 Ladadika-Dikastirion squ. 15868 1 St.George-Rotonda 19260 2 University-Int.Exhib.Center-White Tower 21376 3 PAOK-Malakopi 21376 4 Papafio-St.Constantine-Military Hospital 17385 5 Toumba-St.Fanourios-Ydragogio 18542 6 Vlatadon-St.Dimitrios-Lachanagora 16319 7 Municipal Hospital-Fylakes (Penitentiary) 16709 8 Athinon 18860 9 Analipsi-Dermatologiko 19619 10 Nea Paralia-Municipal Library 20134 11 Railway Station-Xirokrini 16669 12 Pasha Hamam-Tyroloi 15454 13 Charilaou-Exohes 26815 14 Nomarchia-Vafopoulio-Depau 25455 15 School for the blind-Sailing Club 15822 16 Constantinoupoleos-Delfon-Botsari 16761 17 Ippokratio 16712 18 Ecclesiastic School-Kato Toumba 20724 19 Makedonia Palace-Paedagogiki Academia 16729
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 6 Building Stock – Study area • buildings blocks (study area): 2,893 • buildings (study area): 27,738 (92% R/C, 8% masonry) • inhabitants: 376,589 (municipality), 790,824 (city)
Number of buildings nTotal 0 - 5 5 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 80 >80
0 500 1,000 2,000
Meters
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 7 Building stock – Average Losses (Deaths) 0 Results (10,000 runs) 10 0 Mean Annual Frequency 10 -1 10 of exceedance
-1 10 ) -2 10 -2 10 deaths - -3
BDG-deaths 10
-3
BDG-deaths 10 (BDG
λ -4 -4 10 10 deaths with Tm= 500 years (λ=0.002)
-5 -03 -5 10 0.255x10 x 790.824 = 201 deaths 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 -3 -3 BDG-deaths x 10 DeathsBDG-deaths (% of total pop.) x 10
-5 x 10 -5 1.5 x 10 1.4 1.5 1.4 moving average mean 1.2 mean 1.2mean +/- std 1 mean +/- std 1 0.8
0.6 0.8 BDG-deaths -05 0.4 0.6 0.48x10 x 790.824 = 4 deaths BDG-deaths (population) 0.2 0.4
0 0.2
BDG (deaths % of total pop.) % total of BDG (deaths 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 # runs # runs 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 # runs 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 9 Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)
Collapses
Yield
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 10 Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)
Deaths
Injured
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 11 Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)
Displaced people (good weather)
Displaced people (bad weather)
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 12 Application to RDN of Thessaloniki
Bridges/Overpass: • Single span (non-monolithic): 15 • Multiple spans: 44
Roads (236 km) • Freeway, Major arterial: 172 km • Secondary arterial, Collective roads: 64 km
• Road distance <= 5m from buildings: 20 km
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 13 Network connectivity: Performance Indicators
Simple Connectivity Loss (SCL): Connectivity loss between TAZs Weighted Connectivity loss (WCL): Weighted (over travel speed) connectivity loss between TAZs
Bridge/road Blocked by Blocked by failure buildings overpass bridges
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 14 Correlation of broken bridges to network connectivity
Ring road Ring road Interchange K18 Interchange K17
Interchange (Monastiriou)
Interchange with railway
Road to airport
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 15 Road Network Risk Curve Effect of interaction with collapsed buildings
(λ)
Frequency
Interaction with BDG exceedance
of Mean Annual Mean
no interaction with BDG
20% 33% Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL)
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 16 Application to Water Supply System of Thessaloniki
Features: - 21 pumps - 11 tanks - pipes ~280 km - 437 demand nodes
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 17 Correlation of damaged pipes & broken EPN transmission stations to network connectivity
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 18 Water Supply System Risk Curve Effect of interaction with Electric Power Network (λ)
Frequency
interaction of exceedance
Mean Annual Mean no interaction
1% 1.8% Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL) System functionality Tm= 1000 years of WCL
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 19 Multi-criteria Shelter Demand Model
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 20 Shelter Needs Model
Uninhabitable Buildings (Bad Weather Conditions)
SCD_WGS84Shelter Needs Index Uninhabitable(SNI) Buildings Goal 0,0000000.00 - 0. - 030,051637 low 0,0516380.03 - 0.06 - 0,140218 0,1402190.06 - 0.19 - 0,292172 0,2921730.19 - 0.33 - 0,552840 0,5528410.33 - 0 -.61 1,000000 high
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 21