Politika Členských Štátov EÚ V Medzinárodnom Menovom Fonde Vypracoval Samostatne a Uviedol Som Všetky Zdroje a Literatúru, Ktoré Som Pouţil

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Politika Členských Štátov EÚ V Medzinárodnom Menovom Fonde Vypracoval Samostatne a Uviedol Som Všetky Zdroje a Literatúru, Ktoré Som Pouţil MASARYKOVA UNIVERZITA FAKULTA SOCIÁLNÍCH STUDIÍ Katedra mezinárodních vztahů a evropských studií Obor Evropská studia Politika členských štátov EÚ v Medzinárodnom menovom fonde Bakalárska práca Lukáš Mlynárik Vedúci práce: Mgr. Vladan Hodulák, Ph.D UČO: 391504 Obor: Evropská studia, Hospodářská politika Imatrikulační ročník: 2011 Brno, 2015 Prehlasujem, ţe som bakalársku prácu na tému „Politika členských štátov EÚ v Medzinárodnom menovom fonde vypracoval samostatne a uviedol som všetky zdroje a literatúru, ktoré som pouţil. V Brne, dňa 20. apríla, 2015 Lukáš Mlynárik 2 Poďakovanie Na tomto miesto by som chcel poďakovať Mgr. Vladanovi Hodulákovi, Ph.D za trpezlivý a ústretový prístup pri písaní práce, rodine a priateľom za vyjadrenú podporu. 3 Anotácia Zámerom bakalárskej práce je porozumenie vzájomných vzťahov členských štátov Európskej únie v rámci Medzinárodného menového fondu. Práca v prvej časti skúma vznik, ciele fungovanie Fondu a venuje sa podrobnejšiemu opisu súčasnej situácie členských krajín v jednotlivých konštituenciách Fondu a moţnosti, ktoré z nej vyplývajú. Druhá časť pojednáva o reálnych formách spolupráce, ktorá medzi členskými štátmi na pôde Fondu prebieha. Posledná časť preskúmava moţný budúci vývoj tejto spolupráce. Annotation The goal of the bachelor thesis is understanding of mutual relations amongst the member countries of the European Union in the International Monetary Fund. In the first part, the thesis explores creation, goals and functioning of the Fund and ,in detail also deals with description of the current situation of single member countries in their respective constituencies, and the possibilities for cooperation which result from it. The second part describes the real forms of cooperation which is taking place in the Fund. The last chapter suggests possible develepment of the future cooperation. Kľúčové slová Medzinárodný menový fond, Európska únia, hospodárska a menová spolupráca Key words International Monetary Fund, European Union, Economic and Monetary Cooperation 4 Obsah Úvod.............................................................................................................. 1 Teoretická časť............................................................................................ 1.1 Metodológia a výskumné otázky................................................................. 1.2 História Medzinárodného menového fondu................................................. 1.2.1 Cesta k vzniku MMF.............................................................................. 1.2.2 Vznik MMF........................................................................................... 1.2.3 Ciele MMF............................................................................................ 1.2.4 Fungovanie MMF................................................................................... 1.3 Zloţenie a fungovanie MMF..................................................................... 1.3.1 Rada guvernérov.................................................................................... 1.3.2 Quota system – spôsob hlasovania.......................................................... 1.3.3 Výkonná rada....................................................................................... 1.3.4 Vytváranie a fungovanie konštituencií.................................................. 2 Formy spolupráce členských štátov EÚ v MMF.......................................... 2.1 Postavenie členských štátov EÚ vo Výkonnej rade.................................. 2.2 Pozícia členských štátov EÚ v rámci jednotlivých konštitúcií.................. 2.3 Inštitúcie podporujúce kooperáciu členských krajín EÚ v MMF............... 2.3.1 Economic and Financial Comitte a SCIMF........................................... 2.3.2 EURIMF............................................................................................. 2.4 Platformy mimo MMF koordinujúce krajiny EÚ..................................... 2.4.1 G-7...................................................................................................... 2.4.2 G-10................................................................................................... 2.4.3 G-20................................................................................................... 2.4.4 Význam ECB, Komisie, Eurogroup a Trojky pre koordináciu............... 3 Spolupráca členských krajín v MFF v budúcnosti...................................... 3.1 Vytvorenie jednotného zastúpenia pre EÚ............................................... 3.2 Vytvorenie jednotného zastúpenie pre eurozónu...................................... 3.3 Zmena bez podstatnej reformy MMF...................................................... Záver........................................................................................................... Zdroje......................................................................................................... 5 Úvod V júni roku 2013 sa Európska únia rozšírila o nového člena, Chorvátsko. Pristúpením po Slovinsku druhého štátu bývalej Juhoslávie sa počet členov zastavil na čísle 28, a jednalo sa uţ o siedme rozšírenie EÚ od jej vzniku. V roku 1994 sa pristúpením Fínska, Švédska a Rakúska počet členov na desať rokov ustálil na 15 členoch, a teda počet členov sa v priebehu posledných dvoch desaťročí takmer zdvojnásobil. Tendencie EÚ naďalej rásť a postupne integrovať aj zvyšok Európy sú podloţené mnoţstvom aktivít vyvíjaných v balkánskych krajinách, v zakaukazských krajinách, či dlhodobej spolupráci s Tureckom. Potenciál EÚ naďalej rásť a spájať európske krajiny pri dosahovaní spoločných cieľov ešte stále existuje, a moţno teda očakávať ďalšie zvyšovanie vplyvu EÚ. Dôleţitým krokom k budovaniu jednotnej Európy bolo nepochybne vytvorenie menovej únie so spoločnou menou euro, v ktorej sa po prijatí eura v Litve 1.1. 2015 účastní 19 členských štátov, čím sa euro stalo platidlom pre viac ako 330 miliónov obyvateľov Európy. (European Comission 2015) Európska mena sa v medzinárodnom obchode a svetových finančných burzách svojím významom úspešne vyrovnáva americkému doláru, britskej libre či japonskému jenu. Význam, ktorý EÚ získala v globálnom meradle je predurčuje na zastávanie významnej pozície pri vytváraní riešení výziev súčasnej svetovej politiky a ekonomiky. Medzinárodný menový fond predstavuje najvýznamnejšie svetové fórum, kde krajiny EÚ spoluvytvárajú riešenia pre socio-ekonomické a od nich sa odvíjajúce politické výzvy moderného sveta. MMF spája 188 krajín sveta a vrátane všetkých členov EÚ sa jedná aj o všetky európske krajiny, ktoré členmi EÚ nie sú. Poslanie MMF sa od jeho vzniku menilo, priebeţne sa prispôsobujúc aktuálnemu vývoju svetovej ekonomiky od konca 2. svetovej vojny. Vo všeobecnosti sa jednalo o trend rozširovania pôsobností a zasahovania do nových dimenzií svetového hospodárstva. Podstatné je, ţe či uţ sa jedná o otázky menovej politiky, fiškálnej zodpovednosti, rozvojovej pomoci a financovania projektov v týchto a ďalších sférach, môţeme nájsť paralelu a prienik so snaţeniami EÚ. Obe inštitúcie formujúce sa krátko po 2. svetovej vojne sa pomocou ekonomickej stability a kontroly snaţili predísť opakovaniu udalostí z prvej polovice dvadsiateho storočia, uvedomujúc si, ţe socio- ekonomická stabilita a všeobecný blahobyt obyvateľov je jedným z najvýznamnejších faktorov udrţovania mieru a budovaniu demokracie. Súlad myšlienok a hodnôt, na ktorých je postavená európska integrácia, moţno pozorovať aj v 6 činnosti MMF, keďţe členské krajiny EÚ ako Nemecko či Veľká Británia dlhodobo patria k lídrom svetového hospodárstva, čo sa pozitívne odráţa na ich reálnom vplyve v MMF. Aj napriek tomu, ţe MMF je inštitúcia, v ktorej rozhodovaní prevaţne prevláda kolegialita a snaha o riešenie problémov konsenzom, nastávajú situácie, kde sa názory jednotlivých členov MMF rozbiehajú. Práve v týchto situáciách sa predpokladá, ţe krajiny Európy a obzvlášť členovia EÚ, budú zastávať rovnaké stanovisko, čo priamo vyplýva z ich silnej geopolitickej a teda ekonomickej prepojenosti. Keďţe MMF pri rozhodovaní svojich orgánoch rozhoduje súhlasom väčšiny a nie konsenzuálne ako sme zvyknutý v iných medzinárodných organizáciách, je hľadanie partnerov pri presadzovaní spoločných postojov v realite MMF nevyhnutné. (IMF 2015) Obsah tejto práce zameriam na pochopenie vzájomných vzťahov členských štátov EÚ v rámci MMF, level ich spolupráce, úroveň koordinácie postojov a taktieţ prípadné moţnosti ich zintenzívnenia v budúcnosti. Sledované obdobie je vytýčené od vytvorenia menovej únie na konci deväťdesiatych rokov aţ po súčasnosť. Vznik jednotnej meny je vybratý ako dôleţitý medzník, z dôvodu udalostí ktoré nasledovali , či uţ lokálneho meradla ako bankrot Argentíny a dlhová kríza Eurozóny či svetového meradla, predovšetkým svetová finančná kríza zo začiatkom v roku 2008, teda udalosti, pri ktorých riešení sa IMF a EÚ aktívne podieľali. 7 1 Teoretická časť 1.1 Metodológia a výskumné otázky Vo svojej práci som si zvolil tieto výskumné otázky: 1. Existuje spolupráca členských krajín EÚ v MMF? 2. Aký je vplyv tejto potencionálnej spolupráce a jej intenzita? 3. Aké sú moţnosti zefektívnenia koordinácie politík členských štátov v budúcnosti? Metóda pouţitá pri kompletizácii tejto práce je prípadová štúdia – case study. Zameral som sa na spoluprácu členských krajín v rámci EÚ v Medzinárodnom menovom fonde v časovom období od vzniku jednotnej meny euro. Základnou časťou môjho výskumu je štúdium literatúry a publikácií, ktoré sa tejto problematike venujú. Pri zhromaţďovaní
Recommended publications
  • Convergence Report June 2014
    CONVERGENCE REPORT XXX XXXXXX 2014 JUNE 2014 EN CONVERGENCE REPORT JUNE 2014 In 2014 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €20 banknote. © European Central Bank, 2014 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Website http://www.ecb.europa.eu Fax +49 69 1344 6000 All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The cut-off date for the statistics included in this issue was 15 May 2014. ISSN 1725-9525 (online) ISSN 1725-9525 (epub) ISBN 978-92-899-1324-9 (online) ISBN 978-92-899-1346-1 (epub) EU catalogue number QB-AD-14-001-EN-N (online) EU catalogue number QB-AD-14-001-EN-E (epub) CONTENTS CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 5 2 FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS 7 2.1 Economic convergence 7 2.2 Compatibility of national legislation with the Treaties 18 3 THE STATE OF ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE 37 4 COUNTRY SUMMARIES 51 4.1 Bulgaria 51 4.2 Czech Republic 53 4.3 Croatia 55 4.4 Lithuania 57 4.5 Hungary 59 4.6 Poland 61 4.7 Romania 63 4.8 Sweden 65 5 EXAMINATION OF ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE 67 5.1 Bulgaria 67 5.2 Czech Republic 85 5.3 Croatia 103 5.4 Lithuania 121 5.5 Hungary 141 5.6 Poland 161 5.7 Romania 179 5.8 Sweden 197 5.9 Statistical methodology of convergence indicators 213 6 EXAMINATION OF COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL LEGISLATION WITH THE TREATIES 231 6.1 Bulgaria 231 6.2 Czech Republic 235 6.3 Croatia 239 6.4 Lithuania 240 6.5 Hungary 245 6.6 Poland 250 6.7 Romania 254
    [Show full text]
  • Lithuanian National Risk Assessment of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing
    LITHUANIAN NATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF MONEY LAUNDERING AND TERRORIST FINANCING Vilnius, 2020 Contents 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Executive summary ............................................................................................................................... 5 3. Economic, geographical, political, legal environment ........................................................................... 7 3.1. Economic environment ................................................................................................................. 7 3.2. Geographical environment ............................................................................................................ 8 3.3. Political and legal system .............................................................................................................. 8 4. Overview of organized crime and TF in Lithuania ............................................................................... 10 4.1. Organized crime .......................................................................................................................... 10 4.2. Terrorist financing ....................................................................................................................... 12 5. Overview of STRs ................................................................................................................................. 13 6. Stakeholders
    [Show full text]
  • Euro Area Enlargement: Dilemmas and Prospects
    ISSN 1392-1258. EKONOMIKA 2008 84 EURO AREA ENLARGEMENT: DILEMMAS AND PROSPECTS Arunas Dulkys, PhD Department ofTheoretical Economics, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University Sauh~tekio 9, LT-2040 Vilnius, Lithuania Phone: +370-5-236 61 47 E-mail: [email protected] Almost all member states of the new European Union declared their wish to introduce the euro in the near future. The decision of the European Union institutions concerning Lithuania revealed the peculiarities and problems of the euro area enlargement to the Central and Eastern European countries, which are not easy to explain on a purely economic basis while all of them share the same market, and the economic growth restrictions imposed on them are quite disadvantageous. The article discusses a hypothesis that decision on the expansion of the euro zone is determined not only by fulfilment of the Maastricht criteria, but also by a complex of macroeconomic, institutional and political reasons. This article aims to discuss the problem related to the monetary integration in the Central and Eastern Europe. Of no less importance is the progress in implementing measures provided in the governments' programmes, convergence programmes and national plans of the euro adoption of the countries. Conclusions and proposals are presented on how the Central and Eastern European states must strengthen the monitoring of the monetary integration under dif­ ferent standpoints and interests of the players in the decision-making process regarding the euro area membership. Keywords: euro adoption, euro area enlargement, euro zone, Maastricht criteria "Our countries have become too small for the world ... measured against America and Russia today and China and India tomorrow".
    [Show full text]
  • Ecb Publishes Its Convergence Report 2014
    4 June 2014 PRESS RELEASE ECB PUBLISHES ITS CONVERGENCE REPORT 2014 The European Central Bank (ECB) is today publishing its Convergence Report 2014, which assesses the progress made by eight Member States of the European Union (EU) in fulfilling their obligations regarding the achievement of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The report deals with Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia (assessed for the first time), Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden. It examines whether a high degree of sustainable convergence has been achieved in these countries (economic convergence) and gauges compliance with the statutory requirements to be fulfilled by national central banks to become an integral part of the Eurosystem (legal convergence). When assessing the sustainability of convergence, the report also takes due account of both the new enhanced economic governance framework of the EU and the strength of the institutional environment in each country, including in the area of statistics. In this report, Lithuania has been assessed in somewhat more depth than the other countries under review. This is because the Lithuanian authorities have expressed their country’s intention to adopt the euro as of 1 January 2015. The Convergence Report 2014 shows the following results: Price stability Over the 12-month reference period from May 2013 to April 2014, inflation was subdued in the EU, mainly as a result of low contributions from energy and food prices as well as the ongoing weakness in economic activity in most countries. The reference value for the price stability criterion was 1.7%, calculated by adding 1.5 percentage points to the unweighted arithmetic average of the rate of HICP inflation over the 12 months in Latvia (0.1%), Portugal (0.3%) and Ireland (0.3%).
    [Show full text]
  • Analysis of Convergence in the Economic and Monetary Union
    Sofia University „St. Kliment Ohridski“ Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Department: „Industrial Economics and Management“ ANALYSIS OF CONVERGENCE IN THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION Seventh Annual Academic Contest "Dr. Ivanka Petkova" Prepared by: Magdalena Vlahova-Veleva SOFIA 2018 Contents List of figures ______________________________________________________________ 2 List of tables _______________________________________________________________ 2 Abbreviations ______________________________________________________________ 2 1. Introduction ___________________________________________________________ 3 2. Relevance of the subject _________________________________________________ 3 3. Research question ______________________________________________________ 3 4. Research methodology ___________________________________________________ 3 5. Economic and Monetary Union ___________________________________________ 4 6. Maastricht criteria ______________________________________________________ 4 7. Advantages and disadvantages of adopting the euro __________________________ 6 8. Overview of the criteria __________________________________________________ 6 9. Bulgaria ______________________________________________________________ 12 10. VAR model ___________________________________________________________ 15 11. Conclusion ____________________________________________________________ 18 References ________________________________________________________________ 19 1 List of figures Figure 1 Maastricht Criteria - European Union
    [Show full text]
  • Baltic 6.1 Vaks
    Baltic Journal of Economics Spring/Summer 2006 Lithuania's Track to the Euro and the Endogeneity Hypothesis Lithuania's Track to the Euro and the Endogeneity Hypothesis Jurgita Jurgutyte* Abstract: This paper analyses the business cycle synchronization between Lithuania and the Euro area using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with Blanchard and Quah decomposition. The analysis includes experiences both before and after Lithuania pegged its currency to the Euro in the beginning of 2002. The present calculations give positive correlation coefficients for the period 2002-2005 and show that the Lithuanian business cycle becomes more synchronized with the business cycle in the Euro area. Compared with earlier calculations, this result gives a positive outlook and thus corroborates the endogeneity hypothesis of the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory in the Lithuanian case. Adoption of the Euro for Lithuania should therefore be of less concern than previously anticipated based on experiences from the years before the Lithuanian currency was fixed to the US dollar. Keywords: business cycle, optimal currency area JEL codes: F33, E30 1. Introduction Ten countries joined the European Union (EU) on 1st May 2004. All of them are expected sooner or later to entry in the third stage of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), adopting the Euro. Therefore, a number of articles discuss when the EMU should be extended to the new EU members. A part of the debate is focused on the nominal convergence of the candidate country, specifically the fulfilment of the nominal Maastricht convergence criteria: price stability, low budget deficit and level of government debt, stable exchange rates, and convergence of long-term interest rates.
    [Show full text]
  • Focus 3 Lithuania Adopts the Euro
    BOXES Lithuania adopts the euro Box 3 LITHUANIA ADOPTS THE EURO On 1 January 2015 Lithuania adopted the euro and became the 19th member of the euro area. The conversion rate between the Lithuanian litas and the euro was irrevocably fixed at 3.45280 litas to the euro. This was the central rate of the Lithuanian litas throughout the country’s membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism II. Lithuania is a very small economy compared with the rest of the euro area. As such, the country’s adoption of the euro will have no significant impact on the euro area’s aggregate macroeconomic data (see the table). Lithuania’s population is around 3 million and its GDP accounts for about 0.4% of euro area GDP. In terms of purchasing power parity, GDP per capita was slightly below 70% of the euro area average in 2013. Key economic characteristics of Lithuania and the euro area Reporting Unit Euro area Euro area Lithuania period excluding including Lithuania Lithuania Population and economic activity Total population 1) 2013 millions 335.8 338.8 3.0 GDP 2013 EUR billions 9,904.4 9,939.4 35.0 GDP per capita 2013 EUR thousands 29.5 29.3 11.8 GDP per capita (PPP) 2013 Euro 18=100 100.0 99.7 67.5 GDP (share of world GDP) 2) 2013 percentages 12.3 12.4 0.1 Value added by economic activity 3) Agriculture, fishing, forestry 2013 percentage of total 1.7 1.7 3.8 Industry (including construction) 2013 percentage of total 24.6 24.6 30.7 Services (including non-market services) 2013 percentage of total 73.6 73.6 65.5 Monetary and financial indicators Credit to the private
    [Show full text]
  • Convergence Report 2004 Convergence Report 2004 European Central Bank European
    CONVERGENCE REPORT 2004 CONVERGENCE REPORT 2004 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK EUROPEAN CONVERGENCE REPORT 2004 In 2004 all ECB publications will feature a motif taken from the €100 banknote. © European Central Bank, 2004 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Website http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The cut-off date for the data included in this report was 6October 2004. ISSN 1725-9312 (print) ISSN 1725-9525 (online) CONTENTS INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE 5 Lithuania 183 SUMMARY 6 Hungary 211 1 EXAMINATION OF ECONOMIC 7 Malta 239 CONVERGENCE 7 8 Poland 267 1.1 Framework for analysis 7 9 Slovenia 295 1.2 The state of economic 10 Slovakia 323 convergence 16 11 Sweden 351 2 COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL LEGISLATION WITH THE TREATY 28 ANNEX 2.1 Introduction 28 STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY OF 2.2 Scope of adaption 30 CONVERGENCE INDICATORS 379 2.3 Independence of NCBs 31 CHAPTER II 2.4 Legal integration of NCBs into the Eurosystem 39 COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL LEGISLATION WITH THE TREATY 2.5 Compatibility of national legislation with the Treaty and Country assessments 389 the Statute 42 1 Czech Republic 389 3 SUMMARIES COUNTRY BY 2 Estonia 395 COUNTRY 44 3 Cyprus 399 Table A 4 Latvia 402 Economic indicators of convergence 72 5 Lithuania 406 6 Hungary 410 CHAPTER I 7 Malta 414 EXAMINATION OF ECONOMIC 8 Poland 417 CONVERGENCE 9 Slovenia 421 1 Czech Republic 75 10 Slovakia 425 2 Estonia 103 11 Sweden 428 3 Cyprus 127 4 Latvia 155 GLOSSARY 433 ABBREVIATIONS COUNTRIES BE Belgium LU Luxembourg CZ Czech Republic HU Hungary DK Denmark MT Malta DE Germany NL Netherlands EE Estonia AT Austria GR Greece PL Poland ES Spain PT Portugal FR France SI Slovenia IE Ireland SK Slovakia IT Italy FI Finland CY Cyprus SE Sweden LV Latvia UK United Kingdom LT Lithuania OTHERS BIS Bank for International Settlements b.o.p.
    [Show full text]
  • Convergence Report 2004 Convergence Report 2004 European Central Bank European Convergence Report 2004
    CONVERGENCE REPORT 2004 CONVERGENCE REPORT 2004 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK EUROPEAN CONVERGENCE REPORT 2004 In 2004 all ECB publications will feature a motif taken from the €100 banknote. © European Central Bank, 2004 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Website http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The cut-off date for the statistics included in this issue was 6 October 2004. ISSN 1725-9312 (print) ISSN 1725-9525 (online) CONTENTS CONTENTS INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 ANNEX 1 EXAMINATION OF ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE 7 STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY OF 1.1 Framework for analysis 7 CONVERGENCE INDICATORS 209 1.2 The state of economic CHAPTER II 215 convergence 14 Table A COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL LEGISLATION WITH Economic indicators of THE TREATY convergence 22 Country assessments 217 1 Czech Republic 217 2 COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL LEGISLATION WITH THE TREATY 23 2 Estonia 220 2.1 Introduction 23 3 Cyprus 221 2.2 Scope of adaptation 24 4 Latvia 223 2.3 Independence of NCBs 25 5 Lithuania 225 2.4 Legal integration of NCBs into 6 Hungary 227 the Eurosystem 30 7 Malta 228 2.5 Compatibility of national legislation 8 Poland 230 with the Treaty and the Statute 32 9 Slovenia 232 10 Slovakia 234 3 SUMMARIES COUNTRY BY COUNTRY 33 11 Sweden 235 CHAPTER I 51 GLOSSARY 239 EXAMINATION OF ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE
    [Show full text]
  • How Synchronized Is Estonia with the Euro Zone?
    The European Journal of Comparative Economics Vol. 7, n. 1, pp. 203-227 ISSN 1824-2979 On The Road to Euro: How Synchronized Is Estonia with the Euro zone? Zuzana Brixiova,1 Margaret H. Morgan,2 Andreas Wörgötter 3 4 Abstract While the currency board served Estonia well during transition in the 1990s, it has limited its ability to counter the impact of the global financial crisis and heightened the currency risks. The euro adoption has thus become a top policy priority again. However, this paper finds that even after almost two decades of hard peg with the core of the euro zone shocks affecting Estonia are relatively weakly synchronized with those of the zone, contributing to large output volatility. Nevertheless, the case for euro adoption by Estonia holds, since the costs of the loss of independent monetary policy were paid, and – as the global financial crisis demonstrated – the currency board is no substitute for the common currency. To reduce future output volatility, Estonia should move to counter-cyclical fiscal policies, maintain labor and product market flexibility, and adopt policies stimulating rise in the knowledge and high-tech content of its production. JEL classification: E32; F42; C53 Keywords: shock synchronization; structural VAR; euro adoption; financial crisis; Estonia 1. Introduction In 1992, shortly after regaining independence from the Soviet Union, Estonia left the ruble zone and established its own currency (Kroon), which helped gather support for difficult reforms associated with the transition to a market economy. Simultaneously, the country introduced currency board, pegged initially to the German mark and since 1999 to euro.
    [Show full text]
  • WORKING PAPER SERIES No 56 / 2018
    WORKING PAPER SERIES No 56 / 2018 Slicing up inflation: analysis and forecasting of Lithuanian inflation components EXERCISE EVALUATION FORECAST REAL-TIME PSEUDO A DATASETS: MONTHLY LARGE USING GDP OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM No 1 / 2008 By Julius Stakėnas BANK OF LITHUANIA. WORKING PAPER SERIES PAPER WORKING LITHUANIA. OF BANK 1 ISSN 2029-0446 (ONLINE) WORKING PAPER SERIES No 56 / 2018 SLICING UP INFLATION: ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF LITHUANIAN INFLATION COMPONENTS* Julius Stakėnas† * We are grateful for the participants of the internal Bank of Lithuania seminars for their helpful comments. The views expressed and the conclusions reached in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Bank of Lithuania or the Eurosystem. † Bank of Lithuania, e.a.: [email protected]. © Lietuvos bankas, 2018 Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. Address Totorių g. 4 LT-01121 Vilnius Lithuania Telephone (8 5) 268 0103 Internet http://www.lb.lt Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion and critical comments. The Series is managed by Applied Macroeconomic Research Division of Economics Department and Center for Excellence in Finance and Economic Research. All Working Papers of the Series are refereed by internal and external experts. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania. ISSN 2029-0446 (ONLINE) Abstract In this paper we model five Lithuanian HICP subcomponents in a medium scale Bayesian VAR framework. We deal with the parameter proliferation problem by setting the appropri- ate amount of shrinkage determined in the out-of-sample forecasting exercise.
    [Show full text]
  • Adoption of the Euro and Its Effect on Inflation in Lithuania
    University of Amsterdam Faculty of Economics and Business International Economics and Globalization Master Thesis Alina Nikitionok (10604596) [email protected] Supervisor: Boe Thio ADOPTION OF THE EURO AND ITS EFFECT ON INFLATION IN LITHUANIA 14 September 2014 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Lithuania and the euro .................................................................................................................................. 5 2.1. Lithuania and Maastricht criteria ......................................................................................................... 5 2.2. Local attitude towards the adoption of euro ..................................................................................... 10 3. Literature overview ..................................................................................................................................... 17 3.1. Reasons why prices tend to increase during the currency changeover period .................................. 17 3.2. Existing empirical evidence ................................................................................................................ 21 4. Estimation of possible effect of currency changeover on inflation and prices in Lithuania .................... 23 4.1. The model .........................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]