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Dopad Finančnej Krízy Na Rozširovanie Eurozóny

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Dopad Finančnej Krízy Na Rozširovanie Eurozóny Masarykova univerzita Fakulta sociálních studií Katedra mezinárodních vztahů a evropských studií Obor Evropská studia Dopad finančnej krízy na rozširovanie eurozóny Magisterská práca Bc. Martin Bytčanek Vedoucí práce: PhDr. Zdeněk Sychra, Ph.D. UČO: 219287 Obor: Evropská studia Imatrikulační ročník: 2009 Brno 2011 Prehlásenie Prehlasujem, že som magisterskú prácu „Dopad finančnej krízy na rozširovanie eurozóny“ vypracoval samostatne na základe uvedených zdrojov. V Brne, 12.12.2011 Bc. Martin Bytčanek Poďakovanie Ďakujem svojmu vedúcemu magisterskej práce, PhDr. Zdeňkovi Sychrovi, Ph.D., za obetavý prístup a podnetné pripomienky. Rovnako by som chcel poďakovať svojim rodičom a najbližším, ktorí ma podporovali počas celého štúdia. Obsah Úvod .................................................................................................................................... 7 1. Teoretická časť .............................................................................................................. 10 1.1 Eurozóna ................................................................................................................. 10 1.1.1 Historický vývoj............................................................................................... 10 1.1.2 Základné prístupy k menovej integrácii ........................................................... 12 1.1.3 Inštitucionálna štruktúra ................................................................................... 13 1.2 Rozširovanie eurozóny ............................................................................................ 18 1.2.1 Konvergenčné kritériá ...................................................................................... 18 1.2.2 Prijímanie nových členov ................................................................................ 23 1.3 Finančná kríza ......................................................................................................... 27 1.3.1 Príčiny finančnej krízy ..................................................................................... 27 1.3.2 Dopady finančnej krízy v Európe .................................................................... 29 1.4 Kríza eurozóny ........................................................................................................ 33 1.4.1 Príčiny krízy eurozóny ..................................................................................... 34 1.4.2 Opatrenia na zmiernenie krízy v eurozóne ...................................................... 37 2. Metodologická časť ...................................................................................................... 44 2.1 Predmet výskumu .................................................................................................... 44 2.1.1 Časové vymedzenie ......................................................................................... 44 2.1.2 Teritoriálne vymedzenie .................................................................................. 45 2.2 Voľba kritérií .......................................................................................................... 47 2.2.1 Plnenie konvergenčných kritérií ...................................................................... 48 2.2.2 Podpora verejnosti ........................................................................................... 48 2.2.3 Politický postoj ................................................................................................ 49 2.3 Metodologické postupy ........................................................................................... 50 3. Analytická časť ............................................................................................................. 51 3.1 Česká republika ....................................................................................................... 51 3.1.1 Plnenie konvergenčných kritérií ...................................................................... 51 3.1.1.1 Kritérium cenovej stability ....................................................................... 51 3.1.1.2 Kritérium dlhodobých úrokových sadzieb ................................................ 54 3.1.1.3 Kritérium stability menového kurzu ......................................................... 55 3.1.1.4 Kritérium vládneho deficitu ...................................................................... 56 3.1.1.5 Kritérium vládneho dlhu ........................................................................... 58 3.1.2 Podpora verejnosti ........................................................................................... 58 3.1.3 Politický postoj ................................................................................................ 61 3.1.3.1 Volebné obdobie 2002-2006 (ČSSD, KDU-ČSL, US-DEU) ................... 61 3.1.3.2 Volebné obdobie 2006-2010 (ODS, KDU-ČSL, SZ; úradnícka vláda) .... 63 3.1.3.3 Volebné obdobie 2010-2014 (ODS, TOP 09, VV) ................................... 67 3.1.4 Diachrónna komparácia ................................................................................... 68 3.2 Poľsko ..................................................................................................................... 72 3.2.1 Plnenie konvergenčných kritérií ...................................................................... 72 3.2.1.1 Kritérium cenovej stability ....................................................................... 72 3.2.1.2 Kritérium dlhodobých úrokových sadzieb ................................................ 74 3.2.1.3 Kritérium stability menového kurzu ......................................................... 75 3.2.1.4 Kritérium vládneho deficitu ...................................................................... 76 3.2.1.5 Kritérium vládneho dlhu ........................................................................... 77 3.2.2 Podpora verejnosti ........................................................................................... 78 3.2.3 Politický postoj ................................................................................................ 80 3.2.3.1 Volebné obdobie 2001-2005 (SLD, UP) .................................................. 80 3.2.3.2 Volebné obdobie 2005-2007 (PiS, SRP, LPR) ......................................... 83 3.2.3.3 Volebné obdobie 2007-2011 (PO, PSL) ................................................... 85 3.2.4 Diachrónna komparácia ................................................................................... 90 3.3 Maďarsko ................................................................................................................ 97 3.3.1 Plnenie konvergenčných kritérií ...................................................................... 97 3.3.1.1 Kritérium cenovej stability ....................................................................... 97 3.3.1.2 Kritérium dlhodobých úrokových sadzieb ................................................ 99 3.3.1.3 Kritérium stability menového kurzu ....................................................... 100 3.3.1.4 Kritérium vládneho deficitu .................................................................... 101 3.3.1.5 Kritérium vládneho dlhu ......................................................................... 103 3.3.2 Podpora verejnosti ......................................................................................... 104 3.3.3 Politický postoj .............................................................................................. 106 3.3.3.1 Volebné obdobie 2002-2006 (MSZP, SZDSZ) ...................................... 106 3.3.3.2 Volebné obdobie 2006-2010 (MSZP, SZDSZ) ...................................... 109 3.3.3.3 Volebné obdobie 2010-2014 (Fidesz) ..................................................... 113 3.3.4 Diachrónna komparácia ................................................................................. 116 4. Synchrónna komparácia .............................................................................................. 122 Záver ............................................................................................................................... 128 Zoznam skratiek .............................................................................................................. 131 Zoznam tabuliek.............................................................................................................. 133 Zoznam grafov ................................................................................................................ 133 Použité zdroje .................................................................................................................. 134 Primárne zdroje ........................................................................................................... 134 Sekundárne zdroje ....................................................................................................... 140 Úvod Hospodárska a finančná kríza boli predmetom výskumu ekonómov i politológov už v minulosti, súčasná kríza, ktorá postupne od roku 2008 zasiahla väčšinu vyspelých ekonomík, však záujem o túto tému ešte zvýšila. V súčasnosti možno nájsť množstvo publikácii a článkov, ktoré sa venujú vzniku, priebehu a dopadom finančnej krízy1, podobne veľký počet literatúry sa venuje aj problémom, ktorým čelí eurozóna. Vo väčšine prípadov sa však jedná o pohľad odborníkov z oblasti ekonómie, politologické analýzy sú vo výraznej menšine. Predkladaná diplomová práce
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