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2019 Space Weather Workshop Poster Abstracts Embassy Suites Hotel Boulder Please Reference Workshop Poster Program for Poster Dates 2019 Space Weather Workshop Poster Abstracts Embassy Suites Hotel Boulder Please reference Workshop Poster Program for Poster Dates Angling, Matthew (Spire) Poster Number: I3 Poster - On a 4D Ionospheric Data Assimilation Model Using Spire Radio Occultation Data Co-authors: F-X Bocquet, T. M. Duly, V. A. Nguyen, O. Nogues-Correig, L. Tan, T. Yuasa, D. Masters, J. Cappaert, J. Spark Abstract: The ionosphere can affect a wide range of radio frequency (RF) systems operating below 2 GHz. One option for mitigating these effects is to produce assimilative models of the ionospheric density from which products can be derived for specific systems. Such models aim to optimally combine a background model of the ionospheric state with measurements of the ionosphere. This approach is analogous to the use of numerical weather prediction in the meteorological community, and has been evolving for ionospheric use for the last 10 to 15 years. Published research has demonstrated to the utility of this approach. However, obstacles to providing effective data products remain due to the sparseness of ionospheric data over large parts of the world and the timeliness with which data is available. Spire is working to overcome these issues through the use of its large, and growing, constellation of satellites that can measure Total Electron Content (TEC) data in both zenith looking and radio occultation geometries, and its large ground station network that will allow low data latency. The Spire data will be combined with an innovative data assimilation model to provide accurate and actionable ionospheric products. This paper will describe the measurement collection and processing chain, the data assimilation model, and plans for the ongoing development of the combined system. Angryk, Rafal (Georgia State University) *e-Poster Poster Number: S29 - 10:00-10:15 & 3:30-3:45 on Screen 2 Poster - Multivariate Time Series Dataset for Space Weather Machine Learning Co-authors: Petrus C. Martens, Berkay Aydin, Dustin Kempton, Sushant S. Mahajan, Sunitha Basodi, Azim Ahmadzadeh, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi, Shah Muhammad Hamdi, Michael A. Schuh, Manolis K. Georgoulis Abstract: We present a comprehensive, multivariate time series dataset extracted from solar photospheric vector magnetograms in Spaceweather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) series. Our dataset contains a cross-checked NOAA solar flare catalog. It is intended to simplify access to benchmark data for quantitatively comparative studies among machine learning experts and data scientists interested in solar flare prediction. We will present important aspects of data integration and cleaning for active regions and flares, and describe our data integration and sampling procedures. Our dataset covers 4,075 multivariate time series data instances from active regions observed between May 2010 and August 2018. It includes 51 parameters and integrates over 10,000 flare reports. Balikhin, Michael (The University of Sheffield) Poster Number: G14 Poster - NARMAX Based Tools for Space Weather Forecast Resulting from the PROGRESS Project Co-authors: Richard J. Boynton, Simon N. Walker Abstract: The overall aim of the PROGRESS project was to develop novel systems science based tools for the forecast of geomagnetic indices and radiation environment of the geospace and to combine these tools with the forecast of solar wind parameters at L1 to increase the advance time of the forecast. NARMAX based models for Kp, AE and Dst indices, and advanced SNB3GEO-MLT model for the forecast of fluxes of energetic electrons at GEO that accounts for their MLT dependence. The online website that provides the forecast resulting from PROGRESS is also reviewed. Baltzer, Tom (University of Colorado, LASP) *e-Poster Poster Number: I36 - 10:15-10:30 & 3:05-3:20 on Screen 2 Poster - Web Applications and Services in Support of Science Data Access, 'Fusion', Visualization and Download Co-authors: Doug Lindholm, Anne Wilson, Chris Pankratz, and the LASP Web Team Abstract: In order to support easing dataset access for our user community, the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) Web Team has been building reusable tooling and applying it for use by scientists and mission operators. This poster will describe our LaTiS software library at a high level, and present front end capabilities that it has enabled for several different use cases the Team supports. LaTiS is a software library that implements a mathematical technique for describing and manipulating scientific datasets. LASP has created numerous LaTiS services to provide unified access to disparate datasets easing the development of highly capable web applications which also will be described. Baltzer, Tom (University of Colorado, LASP) *e-Poster Poster Number: I38 - 10:30-10:45 & 3:20-3:35 on Screen 2 Poster - The University of Colorado Space Weather TREC Portal Co-authors: Thomas E. Berger, Jennifer Knuth, Doug Lindholm, Anne Wilson, Chris Pankratz, and the LASP Web Team Abstract: The Chancellor of the University of Colorado recently awarded a Grand Challenge grant to a group of departments and labs for the development of the Space Weather Technology, Research and Education Center (SWx-TREC https://www.colorado.edu/spaceweather/). As part of this effort, the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) is developing a Space Weather (SWx) Data Portal to provide unified access to disparate datasets to help close the Research to Operations (R2O) and Operations to Research (O2R) gap. This poster shows the measurement instruments, providers, middleware and SWx TREC Portal prototype displays and how the capabilities being developed can be used to exemplify the 2015 St. Patrick’s Day Storm. Barani, Mohammad (West Virginia University) Poster Number: G12 Poster - Azimuthal Mode Structure of ULF Waves Based on Multiple GOES Satellite Observations Co-authors: Weichao Tu, Theodore Sarris Abstract: The process of radial diffusion, due to the drift resonance between MeV electrons and Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) waves, plays an important role in the transport, acceleration, and loss of energetic electrons in the Earth’s radiation belts. Characterizing the azimuthal mode structure of ULF waves and estimating the azimuthal wave (mode) number m is required for calculating the radial diffusion coefficient of radiation belt electrons. In this study, we make use of the five closely separated GOES satellites that are available during the 28-31 May 2010 storm, which is ideal to estimate the azimuthal mode structure of ULF waves. Specifically, a cross-spectral technique is applied to the compressional Pc5 ULF waves observed by multiple pairs of GOES satellites that cover a wide range of local time during the event to acquire the temporal and spatial variation of mode number. One new improvement in our analysis is that both positive and negative m values are allowed to provide a realistic estimate for the wave propagation direction. We find that during the storm commencement when the solar wind dynamic pressure was high, the ULF wave power is dominated by low mode numbers. Interesting change in the sign of m around noon is also found, with eastward propagation in the noon to dusk sector (solid lines) and westward propagation in the noon to dawn sector (dashed lines). This is consistent with the external driving of ULF waves from the solar wind buffeting around noon, which creates anti-Sunward propagation of waves on both sides. In contrast, during the storm main phase and early recovery phase when the solar wind dynamic pressure dropped to a very low level and the AE index became very active, high mode number ULF waves become dominant. A new result we find is that the high m wave structure covers a wide range of local time, not only limited to midnight region as suggested by previous studies. In addition, new method and analysis is devised and performed to reduce the 2n ambiguities in the cross-phase and mode number calculation by comparing and reconciling the mode estimation results from two overlapping GOES pairs. In the future, the mode number estimation from this study will be used to quantify the role of radial diffusion to the observed enhancement of MeV electrons during the storm. Barbrow, Seth (United States Military Academy) Poster Number: I6 Poster - STK Scenario Development to Predict GPS and PFISR Beam Conjunctions for Periodic and On-demand Scintillation Research Abstract: Using System Took Kit (STK), Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite conjunctions with Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) beams were modeled to project experiments aimed at detecting ionospheric conditions associated with GPS L1 Scintillations. The GPS multi-beam mode has been used successfully at PFISR during the winters of 2017-18 and 2018-19 to detect ionospheric parameters associated with GPS L1 scintillation events. A series of central beams with an associated four beam cross pattern are matched to projected GPS signal ray paths using open source ephemerides, keeping the GPS line of site within +/- 2 degrees of the central beam. The resulting STK scenario will streamline existing PFISR experiment projections, and can be used in the future to develop on-demand conditions-based experiment requests. Benson, Jennifer (Delta Solutions & Strategies, LLC) Poster Number: G8 Poster - Relationship of >2 MeV Electron Fluence and Geomagnetic Storming Near Solar Minimum Abstract: A study has been carried out to explore the relationship between >2 MeV electron fluence and geomagnetic storming during 2017 and 2018 in order to improve forecasting for the likelihood of internal charging in satellites. GOES geosynchronous satellites >2 MeV electron fluxes were used to calculate a 72-hour fluence, and USGS derived Ap index values determined geomagnetic storming. We used threshold criteria of Ap ? 30 to denote geomagnetic storming and 72-hour fluence ? 1.0E9 e/cm2/sr as an indicator of internal charging. During the study period, recurrent coronal holes (CHs) were the main driver of geomagnetic storms. We found that electron fluence exceeded 1.0E9 (‘charging’ threshold) primarily during the equinox periods with gaps during the solstice periods.
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