IWMI Research Report Demonstrating Complexity with a Role-playing Simulation: Investing in Water in the Indrawati 163 Subbasin, Nepal John Janmaat, Suzan Lapp, Ted Wannop, Luna Bharati and Fraser Sugden 1985 2015 Research Reports The publications in this series cover a wide range of subjects—from computer modeling to experience with water user associations—and vary in content from directly applicable research to more basic studies, on which applied work ultimately depends. Some research reports are narrowly focused, analytical and detailed empirical studies; others are wide-ranging and synthetic overviews of generic problems. Although most of the reports are published by IWMI staff and their collaborators, we welcome contributions from others. Each report is reviewed internally by IWMI staff, and by external reviewers. The reports are published and distributed both in hard copy and electronically (www.iwmi.org) and where possible all data and analyses will be available as separate downloadable files. Reports may be copied freely and cited with due acknowledgment. About IWMI IWMI’s mission is to provide evidence-based solutions to sustainably manage water and land resources for food security, people’s livelihoods and the environment. IWMI works in partnership with governments, civil society and the private sector to develop scalable agricultural water management solutions that have a tangible impact on poverty reduction, food security and ecosystem health. IWMI Research Report 163 Demonstrating Complexity with a Role- playing Simulation: Investing in Water in the Indrawati Subbasin, Nepal John Janmaat, Suzan Lapp, Ted Wannop, Luna Bharati and Fraser Sugden International Water Management Institute (IWMI) P O Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka i The authors: John Janmaat is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of British Columbia, Canada, and British Columbia Regional Innovation Chair (RIC) in Water Resources and Ecosystem Sustainability; Suzan Lapp is a Water Resources Specialist at Urban Systems Ltd., British Columbia, Canada, but was a freelance researcher at the time this research study was conducted; Tedd Wannop is an undergraduate Research Assistant in the Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences, University of British Columbia, Canada; Luna Bharati is Senior Researcher - Hydrology and Water Resources, and Head of the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) office in Kathmandu, Nepal; and Fraser Sugden is Researcher – Social Science at IWMI, Kathmandu, Nepal. Janmaat, J.; Lapp, S.; Wannop, T.; Bharati, L.; Sugden, F. 2015. Demonstrating complexity with a role- playing simulation: investing in water in the Indrawati Subbasin, Nepal. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 38p. (IWMI Research Report 163). doi: 10.5337/2015.212 / water storage / calibration / river basins / watershed management / drinking water / households / economic aspects / income / budgets / investment / crop production / climate change / precipitation / labour productivity / social structure / rural communities / policy making / capacity building / education / sustainability / Nepal / ISSN 1026-0862 ISBN 978-92-9090-819-7 Copyright © 2015, by IWMI. All rights reserved. IWMI encourages the use of its material provided that the organization is acknowledged and kept informed in all such instances. Front cover photograph shows a concrete lined irrigation canal in Langarche village development committee (VDC), Sindhupalchowk District, Nepal (Photo: John Janmaat). Please send inquiries and comments to [email protected] A free copy of this publication can be downloaded at www.iwmi.org/Publications/IWMI_Research_Reports/index.aspx Acknowledgements The core part of this study was funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, Canada (formerly Canadian International Development Agency [CIDA]). Invaluable support was provided by Tashi Sherpa (former consultant, IWMI, Nepal) and Alexandra Skodyn (former student, research assistant) in data collection and analysis. The authors are grateful for the field support provided by local contacts in the study districts, and would like to thank staff at the Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS), the Department of Irrigation, Kathmandu, Nepal, and all those who provided logistical advice and local expertise. The valuable feedback and comments provided by Vladimir Smakhtin (Theme Leader – Water Availability, Risk and Resilience, IWMI) and two anonymous reviewers are greatly appreciated. Collaborators This research study was a collaboration of the following organizations: International Water Management Institute (IWMI) University of British Columbia, Canada Donors This research study was funded by the following: Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, Canada (formerly Canadian International Development Agency [CIDA]) This work was undertaken as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is a strategic partnership of CGIAR and Future Earth. CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food-secure future. The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the official opinions of CGIAR or Future Earth. Contents Summary vii Introduction 1 Background 2 Water Storage 2 Migration 2 Social Capital 2 Agent-based Modelling 3 Games and Education 4 Study Area 6 The Village Economy Model – An Agent-based Model 8 Model Entities 10 Time Sequence 11 Policy Variables 12 Calibration 13 The Tournament 14 Structure of the Tournament 14 Post-hoc Analysis 15 Results 16 Results of the Tournament 16 Feedback from the Tournament 18 Results of the Post-hoc Analysis 19 Discussion 21 Conclusion 23 References 24 Appendix. Model details. 28 v v Summary Rural people in Nepal and other developing playing games with agent-based simulation models nations are part of complex social-ecological can facilitate cooperation between people who systems. Efforts to understand and provide otherwise seldom interact, and forces participants assistance to rural people must integrate to actively engage with the management challenges knowledge from a variety of perspectives. inherent in a complex system. However, communicating diverse insights and An agent-based model was built to stylistically emphasizing their interactions can be difficult. capture interactions between migration, social This report documents the use of a role-playing capital and the effectiveness of water storage. It game, supported by an agent-based model, to was used in a role-play tournament conducted as demonstrate the interaction between migration, part of the final meeting of a research partnership social capital and the effectiveness of water between the Department of Irrigation, Nepal, storage. The importance of these interactions International Water Management Institute (IWMI), was highlighted by fieldwork that took place at and the University of British Columbia. The several sites in the Koshi River Basin. The model tournament was effective in engaging participants underlying the game was a stylized representation with the research results built into the model, and based on the Indrawati Subbasin northeast of at facilitating cooperation between people who Kathmandu, Nepal. The objectives of the game otherwise have little time to work together. Further included enhancing the engagement of project development of such tournaments, particularly supporters with the research results, and to focussed on people whose responsibilities foster networking that may facilitate greater future are more closely connected to implementing interaction. interventions, was recommended. Improving Several broad themes emerged from the field model precision in both the physical and social studies. Rural households in the hill and mountain dimensions was seen as critical, pointing to the regions, in particular, often depend on post- importance of continuing work to understand how monsoon rainfall to meet basic needs. Climate social forces interact to impact the effectiveness change promises to increase their vulnerability. of development interventions. Finally, building Remittance income from family migrants is often the model with participation from village farmers an important means of managing local vulnerability. to project managers will enhance its credibility, However, emigration and the resultant social and make both building and use of the model instability in rural villages tend to reduce social an effective way to help identify interventions cohesion. This, in turn, increases challenges with that best suit the local context. The tournament implementing and sustaining projects that serve results also highlighted the important impacts the village as a whole. Consequently, interventions that policy can have. The winning policy both such as building water storage systems may have encouraged migration of households with limited complex and unanticipated impacts. local opportunities and enhanced the situation Simulation models have long been used to of the remaining households. This reinforces explore the implications of interventions on social, the view that migration is one part of the economic and physical systems. Agent-based agricultural transition that accompanies economic models have emerged as an effective way to development, and plays an important role in incorporate the complex interactions of social- enhancing the livelihoods of those who stay and ecological systems. Coupling team-based role- those who leave. vii Demonstrating Complexity