THE DYNAMICS OF THE HOUSING MARKET IN RURAL WALES A thesis submitted in candidature for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the University of Wales Paul Milbourne University of Wales, Aberystwyth 1993 ký ABSTRACT Considerable attention has been given to housing issues in the countryside over recent years. The 1980s and early 1990s have witnessed a whole host of academic publications, policy reports and media articles, with the focus predominantly on the issue of housing affordability. In many ways, the enquiry adds to this burgeoning literature on rural housing issues in conventional terms. In other ways, however, it attempts to provide a broader view of the rural housing market, by considering rural housing issues alongside wider processes of socio-economic restructuring within the Welsh countryside, and also by incorporating in the research methodology elements of housing theory developed predominantly outside the rural arena. Consideration is given to some key aspects of housing and socio-economic change within rural Wales generally and in two case study areas in particular. A detailed examination of the local housing market in each study area then follows based on a series of individual surveys and interviews. Attention is given to state intervention within the market and to the changing nature of social rented housing provision and allocation. In addition, the operations and interests of key agents involved in the supply and distribution of private housing are considered. Finally, the consumption of housing within each study area is investigated, based on a survey of 400 households. The linkages between the local housing market and population in- and out-movement, and the incidence and nature of housing need are examined, together with respondents' attitudes to further residential development and housing need within the community. dedicatedto the memory of my Kanne ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are a number of people whom I would like to thank in producing this thesis: Bill Edwards, for his careful supervision, gentle encouragementand warm friendship over the last five years; Paul Cloke, for helping develop my interests in rural research and for allowing me sufficient time to complete the thesis during this year; My mum and dad, for all their support over many years and; Caroline, who has endured the process of thesis production for the last two years. Finally, my thanks are also extended to the individuals and organisations within rural Wales who provided help and information during the course of this study. CONTENTS Abstract Dedication Acknowledgements List of Tables List of Figures page no. PREFACE i CHAPTER ONE: APPROACHES TO THE STUDY OF HOUSING 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 The wider context of socio-economicchange in the countryside 6 1.21 Population changeand social recomposition 1.22 Demographic and social changein rural Wales 1.23 Employment changein the countryside 1.24 Political economy approaches:attempts to explain the changing employment and societal structure of rural areas 1.3 Previous studies of rural housing 16 1.31 The condition of rural housing 1.32 Improvement of the rural housing stock 1.33 Competition for rural housing 1.34 Typologies of groups within the housing market 1.35 Domestic property classes 1.4 Local NeedsHousing 35 1.41 The argumentsfor and against 1.42 The definition of need 1.5 Studiesof urban housing 43 1.51 Unequal access 1.52 Institutions and gatekeepers 1.53 Marxist political economy 1.54 Housing tenure, class and income: current debates within the housing literature 1.6 Summary 60 CHAPTER TWO: SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGE IN RURAL WALES, 1981-91 2.1 Introduction 61 2.2 The definition of rural Wales 61 2.3 Population Changeand Social Recomposition 64 2.31 Introduction 2.32 The geographyof population change 1981-91 2.33 The componentsof population change 2.34 Population movementto and from rural Wales 2.35 Population movementsby age group 2.36 The origins and destinationsof movers 2.37 Temporal changein Dyfed and Powys 2.38 Changing age structures 1981-91 2.39 The cultural implications of population change 2.4 The economy of rural Wales: a restructured region ? 86 2.41 Introduction 2.42 The changing structure of work 2.43 The changing occupationalstructure of employment 2.44 The geographyof sectoralchange 2.45 Redundancies 2.46 Unemployment 2.47 Income levels 2.5 Summary 107 CHAPTER THREE: HOUSING IN THE WELSH COUNTRYSIDE 3.1 Introduction 110 3.2 The changing structure of housing in rural Wales 110 3.21 Housing tenure 3.22 The provision of new housing 3.23 The condition of the housing stock 3.24 The changing cost of housing 3.25 Second and holiday homes 3.26 Planning applications 3.3 The incidence and nature of housing need 132 3.31 Homelessness 3.32 Waiting lists 3.4 The issue of housing affordability in the Welsh countryside 139 3.41 The perceptionof housing problems 3.42 The agencyresponse to rural housing problems 3.43 The implementation of local needshousing policies within the Welsh countryside 3.5 Summary 154 4.31 Population change 4.32 Employment change 4.33 Housing 186 4.4 The Newtown study area 4.41 Population change 4.42 Employment change 4.43 Housing 4.5 Summary 207 CHAPTER FIVE: THE PROVISION AND ALLOCATION OF SOCIAL HOUSING 5.1 Introduction 210 5.2 Local authorities 210 5.21 The geographyof local authority housing provision 5.22 Council housesales 5.23 The allocation of local authority housing 5.24 The points system 5.25 The changing demandfor local authority housing 5.26 The geographyof local authority housing demand 5.3 Housing associations 226 5.31 The provision of housing associationaccommodation 5.32 The changing level of provision 5.33 The allocation of housing associationaccommodation 5.4 Summary 236 CHAPTER SIX: THE PROVISION AND ALLOCATION OF PRIVATE HOUSING 6.1 Introduction 239 6.2 Building companies (housing production) 240 6.56 Property turnover 6.57 'Outsiders' 6.58 Property types and purchasinggroups 6.59 Rentedaccommodation 6.510 The stateof the local housing market 6.6 Domestic property prices - spatial variations and temporal change 274 6.61 Introduction 6.62 Methodology 6.63 Temporal changein houseprices 6.64 Spatial variations in house prices 6.65 Building plots 6.7 Summary 283 CHAPTER SEVEN: THE CONSUMPTION OF HOUSING 7.1 Introduction 289 7.2 Methodology 289 7.3 Sampling procedure 290 7.4 Questionnaireexecution 295 7.5 A comparisonwith the 1991 Census 295 7.6 The characteristics of households within the housing market 297 7.61 Introduction 7.62 Household structure 7.63 Housing characteristics 7.64 Employment structure 7.7 In-movement and the local housing market 306 7.71 Introduction 7.72 The scale of in-movement 7.73 The characteristics of in-movement 7.74 Motivations behind in-movement 7.75 The factors behind in-movement to a particular community 7.76 The characteristicsof in-movers 7.77 Housing circumstances 7.78 Employment structure 7.79 Income levels 7.8 Out-movement and the housing market 319 7.81 Introduction 7.82 Movements out of rural Wales 7.83 Out-movement within rural Wales 7.9 Housing need 327 7.91 Introduction 7.92 Persons looking for alternative accommodation 7.93 Newcomers versus locals 7.10 Attitudes towards further residential developmentand opinions 333 of hou sing need 7.101 Introduction 7.102 Attitudes to further residential developmentwithin the community 7.103 Perceptions of need - groups affected and housing required 7.104 Reactions to local needs housing schemes 7.105 Opinions of the planning system 7.11 Summary 344 CHAPTER EIGHT: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 8.1 Introduction 353 8.2 Housing and socio-economic change 353 8.3 Key agents involved in the supply and distribution of state and private 359 housing 8.4 Housing attitudes,opinions and domesticproperty classes 366 8.5 Local specificity 369 BIBLIOGRAPHY 371 APPENDIX A A SURVEY OF LOCAL NEEDS POLICIES WITHIN RURAL WALES APPENDIX B A SURVEY OF HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN RURAL WALES APPENDIX C HOUSEHOLD QUESTIONNAIRE ABSTRACT Considerable attention has been given to housing issues in the countryside over recent years. The 1980s and early 1990s have witnessed a whole host of academic publications, policy reports and media articles, with the focus predominantly on the issue of housing affordability. In many ways, the enquiry adds to this burgeoning literature on rural housing issues in conventional terms. In other ways, however, it attempts to provide a broader view of the rural housing market, by considering rural housing issues alongside wider processes of socio-economic restructuring within the Welsh countryside, and also by incorporating in the research methodology elements of housing theory developed predominantly outside the rural arena. Consideration is given to some key aspects of housing and socio-economic change within rural Wales generally and in two case study areas in particular. A detailed examination of the local housing market in each study area then follows based on a series of individual surveys and interviews. Attention is given to state intervention within the market and to the changing nature of social rented housing provision and allocation. In addition, the operations and interests of key agents involved in the supply and distribution of private housing are considered. Finally, the consumption of housing within each study area is investigated, based on a survey of 400 households. The linkages between the local housing market and population in- and out-movement, and the incidence and nature of housing need are examined, together with respondents' attitudes to further residential