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SearchLites Vol. 7 No. 1, Winter 2001 Our Quarterly Newsletter -- Our 25th Issue! Offices: 433 Liberty Street E. T., Call Springer-Verlag! PO Box 555 Copyright © 2000 by Athena Andreadis ([email protected]) Little Ferry NJ We humans have always wondered if we are alone, a preoccupation mirrored in our myths, from 07643 USA the Enuma Elish to Star Trek. The discovery of extraterrestrial life would be an earthshaking discov- ery, even more so than the Copernican revolution which shifted Earth from the center of the universe to Phone: its periphery. Scientists have long debated the parameters for such life, and the search has crystallized (201) 641-1770 into the discipline of astrobiology. Facsimile: Astrobiology theories fall between two positions. One is the mediocrity principle, which posits (201) 641-1771 that we are not in any way special, and given the enormous numbers of galaxies, stars, etc., life -- in- Email: cluding intelligent variants -- exists on many other planets. The other is the anthropic principle, which [email protected] holds that the universe is optimal for human existence and hence we are the sole intelligent life form. Web: The problem with both positions is that they base their statistics on a single sample. Additionally, the www.setileague.org anthropic principle totally ignores the element of chance, which played a crucial role at all stages of President: biogenesis. Richard Factor Two recent books from Springer-Verlag Publishing have joined the debate: Here Be Dragons by Registered Agent: astronomer David Koerner and neuroscientist Simon LeVay, and Rare Earth by paleontologist Peter Marc Arnold, Esq. Ward and astronomer Donald Brownlee. The former has no ideological position, and its authors inter- Secretary: viewed practically every scientist who contributed to astrobiology; the latter, by its title alone and by its A. Heather Wood introductory statement, unequivocally places itself into the anthropic principle camp. Treasurer: Both books give overviews of the astrophysical, geological, chemical and biological events which Martin Schreiber, CPA resulted in the appearance, perseverance and evolution of life on Earth, with emphasis on the recent Executive Director: discoveries of extrasolar planets and extremophilic bacteria. Rare Earth is organized in the traditional H. Paul Shuch, Ph.D. trajectory of such books, tracing the terms of the much-(ab)used Drake equation. Here Be Dragons is organized less linearly and includes a chapter on UFOlogy. Both books range widely across disciplines Trustees: and require considerable prior knowledge to read easily and evaluate critically; their style is even but Richard Factor colorless, and their rare flights of literary fancy barely achieve liftoff (for example, the toy sail- Marc Arnold boat/bacteria and ocean liner/eukarya analogy in Rare Earth). Martin Schreiber In Here Be Dragons the style is dictated by the fact that the book is a collection of opinions, which show the fragmentary nature of the data, as well as the deep divisions of scientific opinion over the Advisory Board: question of extraterrestrial life. In Rare Earth, the authors present the theories they favor as complete Anthony Agnello Poul Anderson and widely accepted, masking the fact that many are controversial (for example, whether star metallic- Sir Arthur C. Clarke ity is as rare as they describe and whether Cambrian Ediacarans represent additional extinct phyla). Robert S. Dixon, Ph.D. Furthermore, I spotted errors in my field of expertise (conflation of transcription and translation, a 20- Frank D. Drake, Ph.D. fold exaggeration of the number of human genes -- both pertaining to the crucial concept of complex- Malcolm I. Raff, Ph.D. ity) and a howler regarding the rotations of Mars and Venus (which are not locked, as the authors as- Clifford Stoll, Ph.D. sert in their haste to make Earth unique in the solar system). These missteps make me wonder whether the authors misquoted additional facts instrumental to their hypothesis. Which brings us to the crux of the matter, the hypothesis. The 'rare earth' theory is that though SearchLites, ISSN 1096-5599, bacterial life may be common in the universe, intelligent life -- in the form of terrestrial animals and is the Quarterly Newsletter of plants -- is unique. The prediction: upon examining other planets, we'll find that bacterial life is com- The SETI League, Inc., a mon, and intelligence absent -- a circular argument as, indeed, are all variants of the anthropic principle. membership-supported, non- In science, theories cannot be identical to their predictions, nor can their predictions be trivial. In fact, profit [501(c)(3)], educational the rare earth theory is neither hypothesis nor prediction, but a description of how life arose on Earth. and scientific corporation, Calculating probabilities after the fact is equivalent to placing a bet after the race has been run. dedicated to the electromag- Conversations about the rarity of intelligent extraterrestrial life rest upon an enormous assumption netic Search for Extra- which Ward and Brownlee, to their credit, mention once per chapter -- that life elsewhere will be life as Terrestrial Intelligence. Entire we know it. Their oft-repeated statement that both Earth and humans are unique is neither novel nor contents copyright © 2001 by contested -- nor helpful in predicting life elsewhere. Given our current almost total lack of knowledge, The SETI League, Inc. Permis- sion is hereby granted for re- such books serve as reviews of existing evidence and as mirrors of the philosophical preferences of production in whole or in part, their authors; as such, they quickly become obsolete. Theorizing will never substitute for observation provided credit is given. All and experimentation. As for life elsewhere, Hamlet said it best -- and our universe, with its quirkiness, opinions expressed are those backs him up: of the individual contribu- There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, tors. Than are dreamt of in your philosophy. v Page 1 SearchLites Volume 7, Number 1 -- Winter 2001 Book Review: First Announcement and Call for Papers: After Contact SETI League Technical Symposium by Dr. Albert A. Harrison and Annual Membership Meeting In accordance with Article IV, Section 1 of our duly ap- (New York: Plenum, 1997, ISBN 0-306-45621-4) proved Bylaws, as amended, the Trustees of The SETI League, reviewed by Melvin A. Lewis ([email protected]) Inc. hereby schedule our Seventh Annual Membership Meeting for 10 AM Eastern time on Sunday, April 29, 2001. This year, Recent discoveries of extrasolar planets and possible for the first time, the Annual Meeting will be preceded by a one- (though disputed) indications of fossilized life on meteorites day SETI League Technical Symposium, which will run from 9 from Mars, along with strong hints of liquid water under the ice AM to 5 PM on Saturday, April 28, 2001. Both events will be on Europa, shifts the odds in favor of likelihood of life else- hosted by the Engineering Department of The College of New where. But what about intelligent life? Jersey, Trenton NJ. An informal SETI League dinner will be Written by a SETI League member and professor of psy- held Saturday night, at a place yet to be determined. Further chology, After Contact is a book that essentially explains what details will be posted on The SETI League website as they be- to expect and what to do in the minutes, hours, days and even come available. years after an ET signal is received. Prof. Al Harrison details We hereby solicit Technical Symposium presentations on the anticipated reactions by the scientific community, govern- SETI-related hardware, software, search strategies and philoso- ment agencies, the clergy, and John Q. Public. He spends some phy. This notice serves as a first Call for Papers. Those SETI time covering people's views on the possibility of extra- League members wishing to present a paper should email a pro- terrestrial intelligence, and the value of searching. Harrison posed title and 100-word abstract to the executive director at outlines how historical events show us how we might react to [email protected], no later than 1 January 2001. Be sure to the detection of a signal. include your full name, affiliation, postal address, and email Of special interest to SETI League members, is an entire address. A formal Proceedings will be published for distribution chapter devoted to microwave observation, defining the search at the Symposium. Camera-ready copy or suitable word proces- space, recognizing a hit, and understanding the limitations of a sor files will be due no later than 1 March 2001. Instructions for radio search. Elsewhere in his fascinating book, Harrison dis- submission of manuscripts will be sent to those submitting ac- cusses messaging, transmission control and dealing with the cepted abstracts, probably in mid-January. time delay. As attendance by one percent of the League's membership There is much nonsensational discussion on the very nature constitutes a quorum, all members in good standing are encour- of possible ET life forms and our conceivable reactions to dis- aged to attend the Annual Meeting. Per Article IV, Section 3 of covery of civilizations "out there." He approaches this topic our Bylaws, written notice of this Meeting is being mailed to all from the perspectives of anthropology, political science, psy- members in good standing, not less than ten days nor more than chology, and sociology. sixty days prior to the meeting date. Members are encouraged to The book, in spite of the title, is not a sequel to the movie submit additional Old Business and New Business items for starring Jody Foster as Dr. Arroway. Nor is it a technical man- inclusion in the Agenda. Please email your agenda items to ual on how to set up a listening post. Rather, it provides insight [email protected], no later than 1 March, 2001.