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Electoral Violence As a Side Product of Democratization in Africa the Cases of Nigeria, Kenya and Zimbabwe

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Electoral Violence As a Side Product of Democratization in Africa the Cases of Nigeria, Kenya and Zimbabwe Electoral Violence as a Side Product of Democratization in Africa The Cases of Nigeria, Kenya and Zimbabwe Teemu S. Meriläinen Master’s thesis University of Helsinki Department of World Cultures October 2012 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................................... IV 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 AIMS OF THE RESEARCH ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 THE THIRD WAVE OF DEMOCRATIZATION IN AFRICA .................................................................. 2 1.3 WHAT IS ELECTORAL VIOLENCE? ................................................................................................. 5 1.4 ELECTORAL VIOLENCE IN AFRICA ................................................................................................ 9 2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY.................................................................. 11 2.1 ELECTORAL AUTHORITARIANISM — THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ............................................. 11 2.2 LINDBERG’S THEORY OF ELECTIONS AS A MODE OF TRANSITION ............................................. 14 2.3 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................................ 23 3 RESEARCH DATA ...................................................................................................................... 24 3.1 AFROBAROMETER .................................................................................................................... 24 3.1.1 Sampling of data ............................................................................................................ 25 3.1.2 Outlining the research data ............................................................................................ 27 3.2. ELECTION STATISTICS ............................................................................................................... 28 3.2.1 The 2007 Nigerian Presidential Election .......................................................................... 28 3.2.2 The 2007 Kenyan Presidential Election............................................................................ 30 3.2.3 The 2008 Zimbabwean Presidential Election ................................................................... 31 3.2.4 African Elections 1990–2006........................................................................................... 32 4 NIGERIAN ELECTIONS 2007 ...................................................................................................... 33 4.1 BACKGROUND: FROM MILITARY RULE TO MULTI-PARTY ELECTIONS ........................................ 33 4.2 THE 2007 ELECTIONS — A DO-OR-DIE AFFAIR ........................................................................... 33 4.3 NIGERIA AS AN ELECTORAL AUTHORITARIAN REGIME .............................................................. 40 4.4 KEY FINDINGS FROM THE AFROBAROMETER DATA .................................................................. 40 4.5 DISCUSSION AND REMARKS ..................................................................................................... 47 iii 5 KENYAN ELECTIONS 2007 ........................................................................................................ 49 5.1 BACKGROUND: ......................................................................................................................... 49 5.2 TWO STEPS TOWARDS DEMOCRATIZATION, ONE STEP BACK ................................................... 53 5.3 KEY FINDINGS ........................................................................................................................... 54 5.4 DISCUSSION AND REMARKS ..................................................................................................... 58 6 ZIMBABWEAN ELECTIONS 2008 ............................................................................................... 60 6.1 BACKGROUND: ......................................................................................................................... 60 6.2 THE RUN-UP TO AND THE AFTERMATH OF THE 29 MARCH ELECTIONS ..................................... 62 6.3 KEY FINDINGS ........................................................................................................................... 65 6.4 DISCUSSION AND REMARKS ..................................................................................................... 69 7 CASE COMPARISON ................................................................................................................. 71 8 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................... 76 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................... 80 PRIMARY SOURCES ......................................................................................................................... 80 SECONDARY SOURCES .................................................................................................................... 81 iv ABBREVIATIONS AC Action Congress MDC-M Movement for Democratic ANPP All Nigeria People's Party Change - Mutambara CDD Ghana Center for Democratic MDC-T Movement for Democratic Development Change - Tsvangirai CIPEV Commission of Inquery into the MoU Memorandum of Understanding Post Election Violence NARC National Rainbow Coalition EA (Census) Enumeration Area NCA National Constitutional Assembly ECK Electoral Commission of Kenya NELDA National Elections Across EFCC Economic and Financial Crimes Democracy and Autocracy Commission NSD Norwegian Social Science Data EU European Union Services FTPT First-Past-the-Post ODM Orange Democratic Movement GNU Government of National Unity ODM-K Orange Democratic Movement - HRW Human Rights Watch Kenya ICG International Crisis Group PDP People's Democratic Party IDASA Institute for Democracy in South PNU Party of National Unity Africa PPPS Probability proportionate to IFES International Foundation for population size Electoral Systems PSU Primary Sampling Unit IMF International Monetary Fund PTDF Petroleum Technology INEC Independent National Electoral Develoment Fund Commission SADC Southern African Develoment JOC Joint Operation Command Community KADU Kenya African Democratic Union US United States KAMATUSA Kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana and ZANU-PF Zimbabwe African National Samburu ethnic groups Union - Patriotic Front KANU Kenya African National Union ZEC Zimbabwe Elections Commission ELECTORAL VIOLENCE IN AFRICA 1 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 AIMS OF THE RESEARCH Elections and democratization are nothing new as research topics in the field of political science, and neither is political violence a neglected subject among sociologists, yet their convergence—electoral violence and its implications to the democratization process—has received much less attention from academics, perhaps because large scale political violence is commonly associated with autocratic regimes, whereas the emergence of regular multi-party elections is commonly thought of as an indication of successful regime transition and democratization. For the past two decades, Africa has been amid a wave of democratization, but in recent years it has become more apparent that the transition may not necessarily follow along the traditional trajectory of modernization theories. After a multitude of competitive electoral cycles, elections in Africa still often feature many non- democratic elements—electoral violence included. But is the prevalence of electoral violence in Africa an indication of a setback in the democratization process? The aim of this research is three-fold: (1) to understand the role of elections in shaping the hybrid regimes of Africa, (2) to explore the dynamics of the political struggle between (and within) the incumbents and the opposition in these hybrid regimes, and (3) to analyze the influence of popular perception of the electoral struggle and its outcomes. The main research question is Under what conditions are elections in Africa at high risk of being marred with electoral violence? I will argue that several contributing factors can be identified that may increase the risk of electoral violence in Africa’s non-consolidated democracies. Among them are a diminishing popularity of the ruling party, a democratic deficit, limited/blocked opportunities for (moderate) election fraud or an excessively blatant and unveiled attempt of electoral manipulation, ELECTORAL VIOLENCE IN AFRICA 2 unresolved ethnic grievances, internal splits within the main political rival parties, and an inconclusive constitutional reform prior to the elections The secondary research question is How do unfair/violent elections affect popular democratic aspirations in Africa’s electoral authoritarian regimes? I will argue that while several consecutive unfair and/or violent elections may have a negative impact on popular democratic aspirations, individual failed elections do not seem to decrease democratic demand in any noticeable way. However, the perceived democratic supply is likely to increase as a consequence of unfair/violent elections, which will increase the democratic deficit in these countries, potentially adding pressure for demands of democratic
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