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World Energy Investment 2018

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World Energy Investment 2018 World Energy 20 Investment 18 World Energy 20 Investment 18 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 7 association countries and beyond. The four main areas of IEA focus are: n Energy Security: Promoting diversity, efficiency, flexibility and reliability for all fuels and energy sources; n Economic Development: Supporting free markets to foster economic growth and eliminate energy poverty; n Environmental Awareness: Analysing policy options to offset the impact of energy production and use on the environment, especially for tackling climate change and air pollution; and n Engagement Worldwide: Working closely with association and partner countries, especially major emerging economies, to find solutions to shared IEA member countries: energy and environmental Australia concerns. Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Secure Hungary Sustainable Ireland Together Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal © OECD/IEA, 2018 Slovak Republic International Energy Agency Spain Website: www.iea.org Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Please note that this publication United States is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission The terms and conditions are also participates in available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ the work of the IEA. Foreword Now established as a benchmark for measuring investment across the energy sector, the third edition of the World Energy Investment report presents the IEA’s continuing analysis of the wide-ranging factors shaping energy investment decisions today. This year, we have identified a common theme about the importance of governments. Nearly three-quarters of the USD 1.8 trillion of global energy investment is driven either by direct investing by state-owned enterprises or private-led investments incentivised by policies. In terms of direct investments, we see a growing role by state actors across all sectors in the past five years. Governments are also increasingly shaping private investment decisions through policies, regulations and standards, particularly in capital intensive sectors, such as renewables and energy efficiency. Despite this increased role of governments, the overall trend of energy investment remains insufficient for meeting energy security, climate and air quality goals, and is not spurring an acceleration in technologies needed for the clean energy transition. The electricity sector offers an example. Recognising the much greater role that electrification will play in the future energy system, the IEA has made 2018 “the year of electricity.” Indeed, electricity is again attracting the largest share of energy investment at a time when its future is very promising, but business models for investments remain uncertain. The report also explores a number of other trends in energy investment, from the financing for energy projects in different sectors to how oil and gas companies are responding to changing oil prices, particularly in the US shale industry. It examines the policy and market factors driving spending on energy efficiency and electric vehicles and how governments are shaping investment into technologies needed for the energy system of the future. More than ever, decision makers across the globe need reliable and authoritative data and analysis. While governments play a central role in setting appropriate polices and reducing barriers, it will be the industry and financiers – in many cases public financial institutions – that channel the necessary capital and manage risks, particularly in emerging economies. The future global energy system – its security, sustainability, affordability and accessibility – relies on the investment decisions being taken today and in the years to come in developing countries and emerging economies alike. As I travel around the world, I can see how decisions made in Brussels, Beijing or Brasilia all have global implications. Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA,2018 Foreword 3 2018 OECD/IEA, © Acknowledgements The lead authors and coordinators of this report were Simon Bennett (energy end-use efficiency investment and financing; R&D and new technologies), Alessandro Blasi (oil, gas and coal investment and financing) and Michael Waldron (electricity and renewables investment and financing; energy financing and funding trends). Principal contributors and supporting authors were Yoko Nobuoka (sources of finance; oil and gas investment; electricity financing), Alberto Toril (electricity generation and renewables; electricity networks and storage). Laszlo Varro, IEA Chief Economist, contributed valuable input. Other key contributors were Marco Cometto (nuclear investment), Carlos Fernandez Alvarez (coal), Araceli Fernandez Pales (steel), Jessica Glicker (energy efficiency investment and financing), Sina Keivani (oil and gas financing), Yang Lei (China), Samantha McCulloch (CCUS), Simon Mueller (renewables and batteries), Kristine Petrosyan (refining and petrochemicals), Joe Ritchie (white certificates), Safia Saouli (venture capital), Tristan Stanley (CCUS), Emily Stromquist (Russia) and Cecilia Tam (battery supply chain and offshore wind). Trevor Morgan and Erin Crum edited the manuscript, and Janet Pape provided essential support. The report is indebted to the high standard of investment data production across all parts of the IEA. In particular, the work of the Energy Supply Outlook Division (Tim Gould, Ali Al- Saffar, Tae-Yoon Kim, Christophe McGlade and Pawel Olejarnik); the Energy Demand Outlook Division (Laura Cozzi, Davide D’Ambrosio, Timur Gül, Paul Hugues, Brent Wanner and Kira West); the Energy Efficiency Division (Brian Motherway, Matteo Craglia, Brian Dean, Armin Mayer, Joe Ritchie and Sacha Scheffer); the Energy Demand Technology Unit (Pierpaolo Cazzola, Marine Gorner and Leonardo Paoli); and the Renewable Energy Division (Paolo Frankl, Yasmina Abdelilah, Heymi Bahar, Karolina Daskiewicz, Pharoah Le Feuvre and Tobias Rinke) were invaluable to the analysis. The report benefited from valuable inputs, comments and feedback from other experts within the IEA and the OECD, including Liwayway Adkins, Geraldine Ang, Neil Atkinson, Mariano Berkenwald, David Benazeraf, Rubens Bibas, Toril Bosoni, Rodney Boyd, Jean Chateau, Kieran Clarke, Anthony Cox, John Dulac, Duarte Figuera, Florens Flues, Peter Fraser, Remi Gigoux, Cesar Alejandro Hernandez, Volker Kraayvanger, Vladamir Kubecek, Peter Levi, Daichi Mabashi, Mariana Mirabile, Duncan Millard, Luis Munuera, Bruce Murphy, Dirk Rottgers, Keisuke Sadamori, Siddharth Singh, Álvaro Santos Pereira, Filipe Silva, Paul Simons, Glenn Sondak, David Turk, Aad Van Bohemen, Matt Wittenstein, Aya Yoshida and Jingjie Zhang. 2018 OECD/IEA, © Acknowledgements 5 Thanks also go to Jon Custer, Muriel Custodio, Astrid Dumond, Rebecca Gaghen, Christopher Gully, Katie Lazaro, Jad Mouawad, Bertrand Sadin, Robert Stone and Therese Walsh of the IEA Communication and Information Office for their help in producing the report. We appreciate the contributions of speakers and participants at the IEA Roundtable on Energy Investment held in March, 2018. In addition, we would like to thank the following organisations that gave their time to answer questions and respond to surveys covering different parts of the energy value chain: ABB, Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior, BHGE, BHP Biliton, BMW, BP, Caterpillar, Chevron, Cummins, Dow, EDF, Enel, Engie, Eni, Equinor, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Investment Bank, Export-Import Bank of Korea, ExxonMobil, Fortum, GE, Glencore, Hess Corporation, Hitachi, Iberdrola, Japan Bank for International Cooperation, KfW, NEOEN, Nissan, Ofgem, Reliance Industries Ltd, Royal HaskoningDHV, Schlumberger, Schneider, Shell, Siemens, Toyota, Uniper, and Vattenfall. From the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, we would like to thank Kanika Chawla, Arjun Dutt and Manu Aggarwal for their contribution to the “Focus on Financing Power Sector Investments in India”. Many experts from outside of the IEA provided input, commented on the underlying analytical work, and reviewed the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: Venkatachalam Anbumozhi Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia Chrisnawan Anditya Indonesia Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Manuel Baritaud European Investment Bank Kamel Bennaceur Abu Dhabi National Oil Company Jules Besnainou Cleantech Group Stephan Berberich California ISO Kanika Chawla Council on Energy, Environment and Water Alex Cobbold Sarasin Joel Couse Total Zita Marko Daatland Statoil Joanna De Mongros Everoze Claudio Dicembrino Enel Zuzana Dobrotkova World Bank Loic Douillet General Electric 2018 Mike Eckhart Citigroup Fabian Kesicki E.ON OECD/IEA, © 6 Acknowledgements Monica Filkova Climate Bonds Niels Franck Energinet Julio Friedmann Carbon Wrangler Nathan Frisbee Schlumberger Shinji Fujino Japan Bank for International Cooperation Kelly Sims Gallagher Tufts University Faith Gan Singapore Energy Market Authority Asger Garnak Danish Energy Agency Francesco Gattei
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