The Implications of Global Climate Change for Mountain Gorilla Conservation in the Albertine Rift A White Paper prepared by the African Wildlife Foundation, the International Gorilla Conservation Programme and EcoAdapt, and funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation The Implications of Global Climate Change for Mountain Gorilla Conservation A White Paper prepared by the African Wildlife Foundation, the International Gorilla Conservation Programme, and EcoAdapt and funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Table of Contents: 1 Introduction Natalia Belfiore1 2 Climatology of the Mountain Gorilla’s Domain Anton Seimon2 and Guy Picton Phillips3 3 Mountain Gorilla Conservation and Climate Change Augustin Basabose4 and Maryke Gray5 4 Mountain Gorilla Health Considerations Natalia Belfiore 5 Climate Change and Socio-Economic Issues in the Albertine Rift Isabella Masinde6 and Joanna Elliott7 6 Modeling Species Distribution under Several Climate Change Scenarios for Mountain Gorillas James Thorne8 and Chang Wan Seo9 7 Developing a Climate Change Adaptation Framework for Mountain Gorilla Conservation Natalia Belfiore 8 Moving Forward on an Adaptation Framework for Mountain Gorilla Conservation Natalia Belfiore, Maryke Gray, Isabella Masinde and Philip Muruthi10 Appendices I Definitions II List of Attendees at Climate Camp Stakeholder Workshop III Stakeholders’ Priority Adaptation Options for Mountain Gorilla Conservation IV Regional Projects and Proposed Projects Involving Climate Change 1 EcoAdapt 2 Wildlife Conservation Society 3 Wildlife Conservation Society, Tanzania 4 International Gorilla Conservation Programme 5 International Gorilla Conservation Programme 6 African Wildlife Foundation 7African Wildlife Foundation 8 University of California, Davis, USA 9 University of Seoul, Korea 10 African Wildlife Foundation 1.0 Introduction I. Purpose of the White Paper Efforts in biodiversity conservation have long embraced the task of reducing the impacts of the stressors imposed by anthropogenic and environmental changes. In the past, most stressors have been either on-going but gradual or incremental, such as pollution or deforestation, or one-time catastrophic events, such as large oil spills, or a severe drought. The prevailing conservation principle has been to plan for a static protected area or series of protected areas, with the goal of preserving important specific habitat types, or biodiversity assemblages. The assumption has been that if properly protected, these ecosystems would remain stable (Hansen et al., 2009). Climate change has created new challenges in biodiversity conservation. While it is already changing ecosystems across the globe, it will continue to do so for decades and perhaps centuries to come, and at a faster pace than originally anticipated (Hansen et al., 2009). The current pace of change is unprecedented in evolutionary history (Barnosky et al., 2003). Climate change is reshaping how we think about conservation. Even if fully protected from the ongoing threats imposed by human activities, the ecosystems and biota we have been protecting will not remain the same. Conservation planners must change the way decisions are made because aspects of the environment we have always considered to be relatively constant, including weather patterns, water supply, temperature extremes, even biotic communities, will be changing. This is a difficult endeavor because, not only can we not predict exactly how things will change, but we don’t know when they will achieve a new stable state. We can no longer plan for stasis. With these ideas in mind, the African Wildlife Foundation and the International Gorilla Conservation Programme have partnered with EcoAdapt to initiate the development of an adaptation framework to address climate change in planning in the continuing efforts to conserve mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) in East Africa. With a grant by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, a series of Climate Camp workshops in the region were held and expert research commissioned to produce this initial White Paper. The work focuses on building understanding and assessing the scope for reducing the vulnerability of mountain gorillas to regional and global changes expected to occur as a result of climate change. The goal is to reduce the vulnerability of mountain gorillas to the negative effects of climate change by understanding and accommodating its effects on their habitat, food supply, and access to water resources. The specific task of the White Paper preparation process was to carry out initial multi-stakeholder assessment of the implications of global climate change for mountain gorilla conservation in the Albertine Rift, and identify key elements of an adaptation framework, including priority adaptation strategies and actions. II. Regional Overview Mountain gorillas are an important focal species for conservation in their own right, and may also bring attention to climate change impacts in the region. We present here summaries of what is known about regional climate change projections, the implications of these changes for mountain gorilla conservation and health, socioeconomic issues relevant to conservation efforts 2 in the region, and modeled scenarios of potential climate change effects on mountain gorilla populations. The Albertine Rift of East Africa is known for its extremely high vertebrate biodiversity and endemism, the highest in continental Africa, and has been the focus of many biological and ecological studies, as well as extensive conservation efforts over recent decades. It spans six countries, each with a unique history, political system, and ability to engage in effective conservation (Plumptre et al., 2007a). The success of conservation efforts in parts of this region has recently increased because of effective transboundary collaboration between Uganda, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo with a focus on mountain gorilla conservation (Plumptre et al., 2007b). Regular cooperation, communication, and planning among the natural resource authorities of the three countries have helped to maximize the conservation potential of the multiple parks containing gorillas. There is some evidence that other large mammals have benefited vicariously by the success of this program (Plumptre et al., 2007b). The recently established Transboundary Core Secretariat provides an essential structural backbone for the integrated management and planning of mountain gorilla conservation for the future. This biological wealth and conservation investment is threatened by a number of stressors, including climate change. Over the past century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Albertine Rift region has become wetter (Figure 1). Global temperatures have increased about 1oC over the past 150 years, with an accelerated rate of increase in recent decades (IPCC, 2007). Both climate change and its effects will continue to be felt in this region for centuries to come even in the best-case scenarios. Yet the local patterns of change, not captured in the global predictions, have yet to be fully described, and we are only beginning to understand how to address these changes in conservation efforts in this region. Figure 1. Overall pattern of global trends in moisture changes as captured by the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002. Red and orange areas have tended to be drier than average and blue and green areas, wetter than average over the course of the century. Adapted from IPCC 2007 FAQ 3.2. 3 Mountain gorillas, the focus of this report, are highly threatened, with just over 700 animals in two populations. Thus any new threat to the species, such as climate change, whether it threatens the species directly or indirectly by increasing non-climate stressors, is cause for concern. Extensive efforts to study and conserve mountain gorillas have been underway for several decades. However, little is not known about the likely impacts of climate change on the mountain gorilla, nor have any climate change adaptation strategies been developed prior to this project. III. Principles for Climate Change Adaptation Given the reality of ongoing climate change, the success of near- and long-term conservation will depend on the extent to which the effects of climate change are integrated into planning and management. Projected climate change effects can only be estimates based on the best available science, and as a result, taking action may seem like a risky enterprise. However, it is possible to undertake adaptation actions that are likely to produce positive results, and at the very least, buy time for biodiversity as more information is amassed, and the future unfolds. While the exact dimensions of climate change and its effects are uncertain, the reality that they will occur is not, making inaction riskier than action. Climate change adaptation in both human and natural systems has been the subject of numerous reports (e.g., Asia Development Bank, 2005; Glick et al., 2009; Heller and Zavaleta, 2009; IPCC, 2007; Lawler, 2009; USAID, 2007). The material covered in these reports generally falls into two categories: principles for or categories of adaptation action, and frameworks for creating adaptation plans. We begin with the general principles, organized into five main tenets for adapting conservation and resource management to climate change (Hansen and Hoffman, 2010). 1. Protect adequate and appropriate space for a changing