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Rethinking the Drone War RETHINKING THE DRONE WAR RETHINKING THE DRONE WAR NATIONAL SECURITY, LEGITIMACY, AND CIVILIAN CASUALTIES IN U.S. COUNTERTERRORISM OPERATIONS LARRY LEWIS DIANE M. VAVRICHEK A joint publication of CNA and Marine Corps University Press MCUP MARINE CORPS UNIVERSITY PRESS Quantico, Virginia 2016 This book represents the best opinion of the authors at the time of printing. The views and opinions are the authors’ own, and do not necessarily represent those of CNA, the Department of the Navy, the U.S. Marine Corps, Marine Corps University, or the U.S. government. MCUP MARINE CORPS UNIVERSITY PRESS Marine Corps University Press CNA Corporation 111 South Street 3003 Washington Boulevard Quantico, VA 22134 Arlington, VA 22201 www.usmcu.edu/mcupress www.cna.org 1st printing, 2016 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Lewis, Larry L. (Lawrence L.), author. | Vavrichek, Diane, author. Title: Rethinking the drone war : national security, legitimacy, and civilian casualties in U.S. counterterrorism operations / Larry Lewis, Diane Vavrichek. Other titles: National security, legitimacy, and civilian casualties in U.S. counterterrorism operations Description: Quantico, VA : CNA and Marine Corps University Press, [2016] | Includes index. Identifiers: LCCN 2016034013 Subjects: LCSH: Drone aircraft--United States--History. | Drone aircraft--Government policy--United States. | Drone aircraft--Moral and ethical aspects--United States. | Uninhabited combat aerial vehicles--Government policy--United States. | Terrorism--Prevention--Government policy--United States. | Targeted killing--Government policy--United States. | Civilian war casualties--Prevention. | United States--Military policy--Moral and ethical aspects. | United States--Military policy--Public opinion. | National security--United States. Classification: LCC UG1242.D7 L48 2016 | DDC 363.325/16--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016034013 ISBN 978-0-9973174-3-5 Drone Strikes in Pakistan © 2014 by CNA Corporation The Future of Drone Strikes © 2014 by CNA Corporation Improving Lethal Action © 2014 by CNA Corporation Security and Legitimacy © by CNA Corporation (forthcoming) CONTENTS Illustrations vii Tables ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii Abbreviations xv PART I Drone Strikes in Pakistan: Assessing Civilian Casualties Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: Drone Strike Casualty Estimates 6 Chapter 3: Discrepancies in Civilian Casualty Estimates 12 Chapter 4: Platform Precision or Comprehensive Process? 20 Chapter 5: The Drone Campaign and Civilian Harm 24 Chapter 6: Conclusions and Recommendations 30 PART II The Future of Drone Strikes: A Framework for Analyzing Policy Options Chapter 7: Introduction 37 Chapter 8: Framework and Policy Options 44 Chapter 9: Military Effectiveness 57 Chapter 10: Legitimacy 65 v Chapter 11: Anticipating Net Effectiveness 89 Chapter 12: Conclusions and Recommendations 95 PART III Improving Lethal Action: Learning and Adapting in U.S. Counterterrorism Operations Chapter 13: Introduction 105 Chapter 14: An Analytical Approach to Improve Lethal Action Operations 114 Chapter 15: Illustrating the Approach 127 Chapter 16: Implementing the Approach 150 Chapter 17: Benefits of the Process 155 Chapter 18: Conclusions and Recommendations 164 PART IV Security and Legitimacy: Learning from the Past Decade of Operations Chapter 19: Introduction 171 Chapter 20: Lesson One: Promoting Legitimacy 175 Chapter 21: Lesson Two: Practicing Legitimacy 189 Chapter 22: Conclusions and Recommendations 197 Appendix A: Title 10, Title 50, and Oversight 209 Appendix B: Covert Actions 213 Index 223 vi | Contents ILLUSTRATIONS Figure 1. Disparate estimates for civilian deaths from drone strikes in Pakistan, 2004 –13 Figure 2. Comprehensive process for reducing and mitigating civilian harm Figure 3. Number of drone strikes in Pakistan per year Figure 4. Percent of operations resulting in civilian deaths per year Figure 5. Analytical approach to improve lethal force operations Figure 6. Perceived tension between mission success and CIVCAS Figure 7. Common relationship between mission success and CIVCAS in Afghanistan Figure 8. Relationship between mission success and CIVCAS Figure 9. Lethal action operations per year in Pakistan and Yemen Figure 10. Target type distribution for lethal action operations in Pakistan and Yemen, 2012–14 Figure 11. Percent of lethal action operations that successfully targeted a senior leader, by target type vii Figure 12. Maximum/minimum combatant casualties from lethal action opera- tions with different target types Figure 13. Percent of lethal action operations causing civilian deaths, by year Figure 14. Average civilian deaths per incident, by year Figure 15. Average civilian deaths per operation Figure 16. Relationship between mission success and CIVCAS Figure 17. Initial locations of U.S. forces and civilian convoy Figure 18. Movement of civilian convoy Figure 19. Strike on civilian convoy Appendix figure 1. Relationship between legal and doctrinal definitions of covert viii | Illustrations TABLES Table 1. Overall statistics for drone strikes in Pakistan, 2004 –13 Table 2. Potential advantages of increased TME and perceived legitimacy Table 3. Potential effects of policy options on military effectiveness and identi- fied legitimacy issues Table 4. Short- and long-term effects of mission success and CIVCAS Table 5. Hypothetical report card for meeting PPG goals Table 6. Overall civilian death statistics for Pakistan and Yemen through August 2014 Table 7. Comparing CIVCAS from drone strikes and other operations in Yemen Table 8. Operations in Yemen and Pakistan achieve the aims of the PPG Appendix table 1. Definitions of covert ix PREFACE The years since 9/11 have seen an evolution in U.S. national security practices with respect to counterterrorism operations, particularly when it comes to lethal force via the use of armed drones, also known as un- manned aerial vehicles, or UAVs. Drones constitute a recent addition to the long list of technological advancements in warfighting over time, a list that includes the develop- ment of the crossbow, gunpowder-powered projectile weapons, chemical weapons in World War I, and rockets and jet aircraft in World War II. The most advanced drones—the armed Predator and Reaper models—offer persistent surveillance as well as the ability to engage targets from almost anywhere across the globe, without a requirement for forces on the ground. This extended reach offers a clear example of how advances in technology can provide a new and effective option for using lethal force. Technological advancements and changing security practices affect- ing the use of force raise important ethical and practical questions, such as whether the technologies and practices should be used in warfare and whether self-imposed limits are appropriate for their responsible use, which can be addressed through national policy decisions, as well as such international laws and standards as the principles of humanity enshrined in the Geneva Conventions of 1949. The modern counterterrorism context is no exception. U.S. national security practices, especially those involving armed drones, have raised numerous questions related to ethics and prac- ticality. This volume is a collection of four reports that collectively address these issues by exploring the themes of legitimacy, civilian protection, and xi national security interests. They address, for example, the following ques- tions in the modern counterterrorism context. Legitimacy Do U.S. means and methods of war enhance our perceived legitima- cy and influence? Would we want other nations to model our own behavior? Civilian Protection A fundamental tenet of international law governing armed conflict is to safeguard civilians from the effects of war when possible. How ef- fective are we in protecting civilians while being effective against the threat? National Security Interests A sovereign nation has both the right and obligation to protect its own citizens and look after their welfare. How do our practices and adop- tion of lethal force technologies affect these interests in the short and long term? This volume provides concrete recommendations for policy makers as well as military commanders, a number of which have, since the time of its writing, been incorporated into the recent U.S. policy guidelines related to civilian casualties. Although this volume focuses specifically on current counterterror- ism practices, its analysis, frameworks, and conclusions can be applied in varying degrees to emerging technologies as well. These considerations can help a government ensure that its use of force is not only effective, but also responsible and consonant with its larger interests. xii | Preface ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Portions of this work were funded by CNA. CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization with more than 600 analysts and professional staff, is dedicated to developing actionable solutions to complex problems of na- tional importance. In addition to defense-related matters for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, CNA’s research portfolio includes policing, home- land security, climate change, water resources, education, and air traffic management. The authors gratefully acknowledge the individuals who aided their re- search by granting interviews; as well as the following colleagues for their feedback and support: William D. Brobst, Richard Brody, Alan C. Brown, Marc Garlasco, Matthew Grund, Lieutenant Commander Matthew Ivey (U.S. Navy, Judge Advocate General’s
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