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The Foreign Service Journal, February 1985

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The Foreign Service Journal, February 1985 1001 pages of duty-free shopping service -Peter Justesen In our catalogue you can shop at leisure 24 hours a day, no matter where you are in the world. Our 1000-page main catalogue is a veritable earned a reputation for quality and absolute cornucopia of the things you need for daily liv¬ reliability. ing, entertaining and recreation. It is also a If you do not have our catalogue, please ask us splendid source of gift ideas. to send one. You can have one of the world’s Our separate furniture catalogue offers a great department stores for the price of a broad choice of furnishings, including carpet¬ stamp. ing and lighting, for the office and your home. It is all available at duty-free prices. PETER 'W’ But few of our customers patronize us for this reason alone. In over 30 years of catering JUSTESEN exclusively to the world diplomatic community, PURVEYOR TO H.M. THE QUEEN OF DENMARK'S HOUSEHOLD we have learned a thing or two about your P.O. Box 2721 Freeport wishes and requirements. In doing so, we have DK-2100 Copenhagen Denmark World leader / Wbrld beater. In just three short years Ford Escort has become the best-selling car in the world. (Based on worldwide production estimates 1983 calendar year.) Maybe it’s because Escort offers the traction of front-wheel drive, the smooth ride of four- wheel independent sus¬ pension, and a choice of beautifully functional body styles. Whether you choose Escort wagon with its 58.8 cubic feet of cargo hauling room or Escort GT with its 1.6 liters of High-Output horsepower, you’ll be driving a car that’s a world leader and a world beater. Discounts for the Diplomat Ford Motor Company offers Special Diplomatic Discounts that apply to any Ford and Lincoln/ Mercury car or light truck. Just clip the cou¬ pon below, and send it to us for more details. DIRECT MARKET OPERATIONS Please send me full information on using my diplomatic discount to purchase a new Write to: Diplomatic Sales, Ford Motor Company 815 Connecticut Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20006 Tel: (202) 785-6047 CITY. STATE. COUNTRY ZIP F$J FOREIGN SERVICE CONTENTS The Questionable Alliance 17 Curtis Jones America’s close relationship with Israel is usually por¬ trayed as essential, but it may not be in our interest. The Real Intelligence Failure 22 The policymaking process is like a maze. Informa¬ John Horton tion—intelligence, cables, studies—is fed in and Decisionmakers sometimes fail to heed information—or policy somehow emerges from the other end. In this issue, we look at what happens in that labyrinth. even distort it—if it conflicts with accepted policy. On page 22, former CIA analyst John Horton shows how supposedly neutral intelligence assess¬ ments are sometimes affected by politics. And on page 26, journalist Kai Bird takes a look at the The Decline of Dissent 26 diminishing use of the dissent channel as a symp¬ Kai Bird tom of the foreign policy process’s hostility to non¬ conformist thinking. Use of the dissent channel is lessening because of doubts about its usefulness and fears of retribution. Journal: The Gray Falcon 32 Christopher M. Bonsteel During Argentina’s dirty war, a man finds himself stalked by the military junta’s security forces. Association Views 3 People 34 Letters 4 Election Call 39 Books 9 Association News 40 Editor: STEPHEN R. DUJACK Clippings 14 Retirement News 45 Associate Editor: FRANCES G. BURWELL 10-25-30 16 Editorial Assistant: NANCY L. BARTELS Editorial Board Chair: CAROLINE MEIRS OSTERLING Vice Chairman: W. HAVEN NORTH “The Independent Voice of the Foreign Service’’ Members: GILBERT DONAHUE STEPHEN E. EISENBRAUN GEORGE GEDDA The FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL is the magazine for and at additional post office. POSTMASTER: Send ad¬ TERESA CHIN JONES professionals in foreign affairs, published monthly dress changes to FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL, 2101 E TAIRA ST. JOHN except August by the American Foreign Service As¬ Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037. LANGE SCHERMERHORN sociation, a private non-profit organization. Material Microfilm copies: University Microfilm Library appearing herein represents the opinions of the writ¬ Services, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 (October A. STEPHEN TELKINS ers and does not necessarily represent the official 1967 to present). views of the foreign affairs agencies, the U.S. govern¬ The JOURNAL welcomes manuscripts of 1500- Advertising Representatives ment, or AFSA. The Editorial Board is responsible 4000 words for consideration by the Editorial Board. for general content, but statements concerning the Author queries are strongly urged, stamped envelope JAMES C. SASMOR ASSOCIATES policy and administration of AFSA as employee rep¬ required for return. All authors are paid on publica- 521 Fifth Ave., Suite 1700 resentative under the Foreign Service Act of 1980 in New York, N.Y. 10017. the ASSOCIATION NEWS and the ASSOCIATION VIEWS, (212) 683-3421 and all communications relating to these, are the © American Foreign Service Association, 1985. responsibility of the AFSA Governing Board. 2101 E Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037. JOSHUA B. POWERS, LTD. JOURNAL subscriptions: One year (11 issues), $15. Phone (202) 338-4045. 46 Keyes House, Dolphin Square, Overseas subscriptions (except Canada), add $3 per London SW1. 01-834-8023/9. year. February 1985. Volume 62, number 2. ISSN International Representatives Second-class postage paid at Washington, DC., 0015-7279. 2 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL -l ASSOCIATION VIEWS 1 II \Jl 1 AMERICAN FOREIGN Professionalism SERVICE ASSOCIATION Governing Board President: DENNIS K. HAYS w Vice President: ANTHEA S. DE ROUVILLE Second Vice President: CHARLOTTE CROMER ▼ ▼ e frequently use the term “professionalism" to describe what we as Foreign Service Secretary: IRVING A. WILLIAMSON career personnel set as our standard of excellence. We are frequently accused of “careerism," Treasurer: WARREN GARDNER defined as blind support for a career Foreign Service without regard for standards of profession¬ AID Representatives: ROY A. HARRELL alism. AFSA stands for a career Foreign Service dedicated to professionalism, but does not JUANITA L. NOFFLET promote careerism as an end in itself. State Representatives: JAMES A. DERRICK This semantic difference is important. We believe a career Foreign Service must exist to help THOMAS J. MILLER the president and secretary of state formulate and implement our nation's foreign policy. JAMES SPAIN Because we are dedicated to serving the incumbent administration—regardless of political JAMES WILLIAMSON party or persuasion—and have demonstrated this commitment over many years, the charges of USIA Representative: RICHARD ARNDT partisanship and untrustworthiness which one hears frequently today sting deeply. Even more Retired Representatives: WILLIAM CALDERHEAD painful is the perception that some in the current administration intend to act on their mistaken ROGER PROVENCHER impression of the Foreign Service by pushing for an even higher percentage of political JOHN THOMAS appointments in the department than has existed ever before. As the administration prepares to begin its second term, we wish to reaffirm the professional¬ Staff ism for which AFSA stands. It is based on: Executive Director: LYNNE IGLITZJN —Loyalty to the policies of the president and secretary of state. The career Foreign Service is General Counsel: SUSAN Z. HOI.IK as dedicated as political appointees to successfully carrying out this administration’s foreign Members' Interest & policy; Grievance Counselor: SABINE SISK —An obligation to tell our political leaders when we think a policy is wrong and should be Members' Interest & changed, but to do so within channels; Grievance Representative: BARBARA WII.SON —A system which recognizes excellence, be it from career or political ranks. Our nation's Comptroller: ALICIA BREHM foreign policy is too important to make it the exclusive domain of either careerists or political Membership Coordinator: LEE MIDTHUN appointees. By working together, we can do a better job. Admin. Assistant: WANDA DYKHUIS Flooding the department with more political appointees, as suggested in a recent Heritage Legal Assistant: GREGORY A. LEWIS Foundation report, will not only make it more difficult to have the best qualified people Law Clerk: FRANCINE MCNULTY advising the secretary, but it will also bring to the fore a basic dilemma one must face in any Executive Secretary: DEMETRA PAPASTRAT profession: What point is there in hiring the best and the brightest and making them go Secretary: SUPAJF.E LAPCHAROEN through an excruciating testing period only to deny them the opportunity to use all their background and training because there are no positions available to prove themselves? How Congressional Liaison many lawyers or doctors would endure the apprenticeship if they knew there was no way to ROBERT M. BEERS become a partner or to practice after their residency? More importantly, would these profes¬ Scholarship Programs sions—which demand a great deal of training and specialization like the Foreign Service—be DAWN CIJTHELL better served if we entrusted them to amateurs? Admittedly, the career Foreign Service is far from perfect. In an organization as large as ours, Face-to-Face Program we have our leakers, squeaky wheels, and those who publicly disagree with established policy. RONALD A. DWIGHT These actions should not be tolerated. For example, the recent public statement—albeit taken The American Foreign Service Association, founded in somewhat out of context—of one of our most distinguished career ambassadors which disagreed 1924, is the professional association of the Foreign with certain aspects of the president’s Middle East policy and came only days before the election Service and the official employee representative of all Foreign Service employees in the Department of State was wrong and unprofessional. and the Agency for International Development under By the same token, political appointees to high-level positions in the State Department the terms of the Foreign Service Act of 1980.
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    t CONSUMER PRICE INDEX RAPID INFORMATION THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IN FEBRUARY 1985 The consumer price index for the EC as a whole rose by 0.6 %between January and February 1925. This was the second consecutive month in which the increase was higher than the monthly average increase durinr 1984. These increases are largely attributable to higher prices for fresh fruit and vege­ tables, caused by the weather in these two months and to rises in prices of oil pro­ ducts invoiced in Dollars, for which the exchange rates went up sharply during this period. The rates of increase by country in February are as follows: Netherlands 0.3 %, Germany (FR) 0.4 %, France 0.5 %, Luxembur~ 0.6 %, Denmark 0.7 %, United Kingdom 0.8 %, Belpium 1.0 %, Italy 1.0 %. Only Greece reported a slight decrease (-0.2 %), resulting entirely from the winter sales of clothing and footwear. The quarterly index for Ireland went up by 1.9 %between mid-November 1984 and~ February 19E5, which means an average increase of about 0.6 %per month. The inflation rate for this country over 12 months (February 1985 compared to February 1934) is 6g2 %, whereas this figure was 10.2 %in February 1984, 12.5 %in February 1923 and 1 .9 %in February 1982. For the Community as a whole, the infla.tion over-the-year as measured by comparing the CPI for February 1985 with that for February 1984 stood at 5.6 %, remaining thus the same as the average rate for 1984. For the individual countries these rates are as follows: Germany (FR) 2.3 %, Netherlands 2.3 %; United Kingdom 5.4 %, Belgium 5·4 %, Denmark 5.4 %, Ireland 6.2 %, France 6.4 %, Italy 9.0 %, Greece 18.6 %.
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