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Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change in the Southwest: Terrestrial Species of the Middle Rio Grande

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Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change in the Southwest: Terrestrial Species of the Middle Rio Grande Vulnerability of Species to Climate United States Department of Agriculture Change in the Southwest: Terrestrial Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Species of the Middle Rio Grande General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-306 July 2013 Megan M. Friggens, Deborah M. Finch, Karen E. Bagne, Sharon J. Coe, and David L. Hawksworth Friggens, Megan M.; Finch, Deborah M.; Bagne, Karen E.; Coe, Sharon J.; Hawksworth, David L. 2013. Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: terrestrial species of the Middle Rio Grande. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-306. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 191 p. ABSTRACT We used a vulnerability scoring system to assess the vulnerability of 117 vertebrate species that occur in the Middle Rio Grande Bosque (MRGB) to expected climate change. The purpose of this project was to guide wildlife managers on options and considerations for climate change adaptation. The 117 species occur regularly in the MRGB during the breeding season, winter, or year-round. In general, future climate scenarios predict warmer temperatures with an altered precipitation regime that will likely lead to reduced water levels in the MRGB. This assessment points to several key issues relating to future habitat changes and individual species physiology that are expected to affect species survival under climate change. Decreased availability of mesic sites is expected to directly impact many amphibian and reptile populations and is expected to have indirect affects for birds and mammals primarily through changes in habitat availability. We predicted that phenological changes will negatively impact many species within all taxonomic groups through altered timing of weather events and river flow. Riparian-dependent species received some of the highest vulnerability scores. Species already at the southern limit of their distributional range were also predicted to be more likely to be vulnerable to climate change. The assessment also identified important data gaps. Management for species conservation under future climate conditions will require increased research and monitoring, greater integration of landscape-scale approaches, consideration of future land-use scenarios, and increased understanding of the consequences of species’ interactions. We review the specific implications of climate change for wildlife in the MRGB in order to identify intervention points and approaches that may achieve management goals. Keywords: climate change, southwestern riparian habitats, vulnerability assessment, Bosque, wildlife management, SAVS AUTHORS Megan M. Friggens is a post-doctoral Research Ecologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS) where she works on issues relating to species and habitat vulnerability to climate change. Deborah M. Finch is the Program Manager for the Grassland, Shrubland, and Desert program of the RMRS. Karen E. Bagne is a Wildlife Ecologist who has worked in various aspects of wildlife and land management for the U.S. Government since 1990. Sharon J. Coe is a post-doctoral Ecologist with the RMRS and the University of Arizona. David L. Hawksworth is a Biological Science Technician with the RMRS. You may order additional copies of this publication by sending your mailing information in label form through one of the following media. Cover photo: Photograph Please specify the publication title and series number. provided by Mary Ann Publishing Services Donovan; Woodpecker, Telephone (970) 498-1392 Wolfgang Wander; FAX (970) 498-1122 Gartersnake, Sally King; E-mail [email protected] Black-tailed jackrabbit, Jim Website http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/publications Harper; Spadefoot toad, Mailing address Publications Distribution Rocky Mountain Research Station Robertson, Wikimedia. 240 West Prospect Road Fort Collins, CO 80526 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was supported by a Research and Development grant through the USDA Forest Service, Washington Office, Climate Change Initiative and a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Bosque Initiative Grant (Final product for Agreement No. 201819H705). We thank the Nature Conservancy and the University of Arizona for input and contributions during the creation and implementation of the species vulnerability tool used in this assessment. We also thank Cyndie Abeyta (USFWS) and Alan Soloman (USFS, WO) for encouragement and inspiration. We acknowledge the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. Finally, we thank Erica Rowland and Molly Cross (Wildlife Conservation Society) and Katherine Dwire (Air, Water, and Aquatic Environments program, RMRS)—their comments improved this manuscript greatly. i CONTENTS Chapter 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................1 1.1 Implications of Climate Change ......................................................................................1 1.2 The Middle Rio Grande Bosque (MRGB) .........................................................................1 1.3 Climate Change in the Southwestern United States and MRGB ......................................5 1.4 Climate and Management Challenges ..............................................................................7 Chapter 2. Methods for Assessing the Vulnerability of Species in the MRGB to Climate Change .........................................................................................8 2.1 Species Vulnerability Assessment Tool .............................................................................8 2.2 Methods: Background ....................................................................................................10 Species Selection ........................................................................................................................10 Future Climate and Vegetation Scenario for the MRG .................................................................11 Biological Information Sources ...................................................................................................17 Chapter 3. Vulnerability of Species in the Middle Rio Grande Bosque to Climate Change ......................................................................................................18 3.1 Summary of Results .......................................................................................................18 Amphibian Overview .................................................................................................................23 Reptile Overview .......................................................................................................................25 Bird Overview ............................................................................................................................28 Mammal Overview ....................................................................................................................32 3.2 Discussion .....................................................................................................................35 Chapter 4. Management Under Climate Change ............................................................39 4.1 Managing Species for Climate Change ..........................................................................39 4.2 Lessons from the Assessment Process ............................................................................42 Drought ......................................................................................................................................43 Increased Temperatures ..............................................................................................................46 Water .........................................................................................................................................49 Wildfire ......................................................................................................................................50 4.3 Identifying Management Strategies ...............................................................................52 Prioritization ..............................................................................................................................53 Landscape-Scale Planning ..........................................................................................................54 Management of Invasive Species ................................................................................................54 Restoration Under Climate Change ............................................................................................56 Wildland-Urban Interface ...........................................................................................................58 Grazing ......................................................................................................................................59 Legislative Actions ......................................................................................................................61 Utilizing Opportunities ...............................................................................................................61 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................62
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