Israel and the Middle East News Update

Tuesday, December 8

Headlines:  U.S. Donors Pump Millions Into Israeli Settlements  Netanyahu Names Yossi Cohen as Next Mossad Chief  Toy Story, Intifada Style: 4,000 Anti-Israel Dolls Seized at Customs  State Flummoxed Over 11 Year-Old Terrorist  Hamas Denied Clinton Remarks that ISIS Visited Gaza  Swedish PM: Stabbing Attacks in Israel Not Terrorism  Netanyahu: Gas Plan Is Vital to Israel’s Existence  Iran Tests Ballistic Missiles, Violating UN Security Council Resolutions

Commentary:  Ma’ariv: “Excellent Appointment, Needless Drama”  By Alon Ben-David, Military Affairs Commentator, Channel 10 Israel  Al-Monitor: “How the Islamic State Hurts the Palestinian Cause”  By Uri Savir, Honorary President, Peres Center for Peace

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts December 8, 2015

U.S. News U.S. Donors Pump Millions Into Israeli Settlements Private American donors have pumped more than $220 million into Jewish West Bank settlements in recent years through tax-deductible donations, effectively subsidizing a policy opposed by U.S. administrations for decades. Some 50 U.S. nonprofit organizations were raising funds for settlements in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. The money's tax-deductible status means the U.S. government "is incentivizing and indirectly supporting the Israeli settlement movement," even though the US opposes settlement construction as it is an obstacle to peace with the Palestinians. See also, “U.S. Donors Gave Settlements Over $220 Million in Tax-Exempt Funds Over Five Years” (Ha'aretz)

Ha’aretz Netanyahu Names Yossi Cohen as Next Mossad Chief National Security Adviser Yossi Cohen will be the next head of the Mossad intelligence agency, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Monday night. Cohen, who has headed the National Security Council since 2013, is a former deputy chief of the Mossad and former head of the organization’s Tzomet division, which operates agents. The term of the current Mossad chief, Tamir Pardo, ends in January, when Cohen takes over. Cohen beat out two senior Mossad veterans for the post. One is former Mossad deputy head Ram Ben-Barak, who is now director general of the intelligence ministry, and the current deputy Mossad head, who can only be identified as “N.”

Jerusalem Post Toy Story, Intifada Style: 4,000 Anti-Israel Dolls Seized Custom workers in Haifa thwarted an attempt to smuggle 4,000 anti-Israel stuffed dolls to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank on Tuesday. The dolls, dressed in the Palestinian colors of red, green, black, and white, and in face-covering keffiyehs with the slogans "Jerusalem is ours," and "Jerusalem, here we come" inscribed on them, were found in a container labeled as containing articles of clothing, rugs, and plastic products. The dolls, imported from the United Arab Emirates and en route to the Palestinian Authority, were meant to incite the Palestinian youth. See also, “Rock Holding and Keffiyah Clad Dolls Seized at Haifa Port” (Ynet News)

Arutz Sheva State Flummoxed Over 11 Year-Old Terrorist The 11 year-old Palestinian Arab who stabbed a Jerusalem light rail guard in a terror attack last month has been released from hospital and into a state-funded juvenile ward Tuesday, as the government scrambles to find an appropriate way to handle the preteen terrorist. Under Israeli law, the minor does not reach the age of criminal responsibility, which is 12. Over the past two months, Israel has already grappled with the sticky logistical and moral issues regarding teen terrorists from ages 12-14 - and the 120% rise in teen terror - but the issue of a true minor committing a terror attack is a new one. "The state has absolutely no idea what to do with him," the source revealed. See also, “Teenage Presence in Israeli Prison System Up 120%” (Arutz Sheva) 2

Jerusalem Post Hamas Denied Clinton Remarks that ISIS Visited Gaza Hamas condemned Hilary Clinton, the front-runner for the nomination of the Democratic Party, for saying that an Islamic State (ISIS) commander had visited the Gaza Strip. This talk is untrue,” said Hamas representative Ismail Radwan. “We reject these hostile remarks.” Radwan said that Clinton’s remarks were a sign of “complete bias in favor of the Zionist occupation and an attempt to cause confusion, appease the occupation and win the votes of American Jews” in the next U.S. presidential election.

Times of Israel Swedish PM: Stabbing Attacks in Israel Not Terrorism Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven further strained his country’s relationship with Israel on Monday, saying he does not consider stabbing attacks in Israel to constitute terrorism. “No, it is not classified as [terrorism],” Lofven said in an interview to the Swedish news agency TT. “There is an international classification regarding what constitutes or does not constitute [terror]. As far as I know, the [knife attacks in Israel] are not defined as terror.” Later in the day, Lofven contacted TT again to clarify his message, fearing what he called a “misunderstanding.” “I meant that it was unclear if the knife attacks are organized by a group classified as a terrorist organization,” Lofven told the agency. “Nonetheless, the attacks themselves do constitute terror.” See also, “Swedish PM: Knife Attacks Are Not Classified as Terrorism” (Ynet News)

Ynet News Netanyahu: Gas Plan Is Vital to Israel's Existence Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu testified on Tuesday in front of the Knesset's Finance Committee, defending the government’s natural gas plan. Specifically, Netanyahu was called to defend Clause 52 that enables the government to bypass the anti-trust regular's authority in approving the gas plan. Netanyahu claimed in his testimony that the proposed plan was vital for Israel’s existence, as it would ensure the country's energy security. He disclosed that Israel's power plants were hit in the past by rockets launched by terror organizations, arguing that the development of additional gas fields is necessary to lower the threat on Israel's energy resources. See also, “Impending Natural Gas Deal Angers Many Israelis” (Voice of America)

BICOM Iran Tests Ballistic Missiles, Violating UNSC Resolutions Media reports say that Iran has recently conducted two medium-range ballistic missile tests, breaching two United Nations (UN) Security Council resolutions. Both Reuters and Fox News say that unnamed United States officials told them that the tests took place on 21 November from a known missile-testing site on the Iranian coast near the border with Pakistan. The missile that was tested was apparently the Ghadr-110, which has a range of 1,200 miles, and is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. In a similar incident in October, Iran’s Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehqan said that the Emad (pillar) precision-guided surface to surface missile had been successfully tested. The rocket has a reported range of just over 1,000 miles and can deliver a 750kg payload to within 500 meters of a target. See also, “Iran Carries Out Another Missile Test in Violation of UN” (Arutz Sheva) 3

Ma’ariv – December 8, 2015 Excellent Appointment, Needless Drama By Alon Ben-David  Among three excellent candidates for Mossad director, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu chose the candidate with the strongest operational record. Yossi Cohen is an operations man in the fullest sense of the word, and this may be a signal that Netanyahu is interested in a more proactive Mossad.  It’s difficult to know what took place behind the scenes of the appointment, but it was evident last night that Netanyahu was hard put to make a decision. The ongoing delay of the announcement on the appointment raised a great deal of rumors about pressure that was brought to bear on Netanyahu. Nevertheless, no one will question Cohen’s suitability for the post.  His appointment will be met favorably by the Mossad personnel, many of whom expected to see him lead the organization. His leadership and his authority, after the many posts he filled in the Tzomet division and as deputy director of the Mossad, will be accepted without question.  The appointment is also not expected to cause the retirement of senior officials, with the possible exception of N., the current deputy director, who was not appointed. Instead, A., the former commander of the Caesarea division, is expected to assume the post of Cohen’s deputy, but besides N., no other division directors are expected to retire.  The years in which Cohen commanded the Tzomet division were difficult years for Iran’s nuclear program. In those years, there was a sense that the Mossad’s arm reaches every spot in the Middle East. Iran’s nuclear program in particular suffered from a series of mishaps: scientists were murdered, a computer virus attacked the installations and a great deal of equipment malfunctioned. More than once, the Iranian authorities found suspects held responsible for these actions, and they turned out to be Iranians, who claimed they were handled by the Mossad.  Within the organization there is an expectation of refreshment and renewal, and Cohen can lead the Mossad to such renewal. Israel and the Mossad have remained almost alone to monitor the Iranian nuclear program and to be on the alert for violations of the nuclear agreement. Cohen will also be called upon to cope with Islamic terrorism, which is gaining strength and approaching Israel’s borders. He will also serve as Israel’s foreign minister for all those states with which we do not have diplomatic relations.  Cohen brings with him to the post fluency in three languages (English, Arabic and French), extensive foreign policy experience that he gained in the past three years, and no less importantly—an intimate relationship with the prime minister. Despite his elegant and well- kept appearance, he is not a prince, but rather an industrious person who made his way up the Mossad ladder with a great deal of hard work.

 This is undoubtedly a good appointment, but we could have dispensed with the reality TV show that Netanyahu produced last night for the televised news editions. The candidates were told to stay close to the phone from 6:00 to 9:00 PM, awaiting the word of the prime minister, with one eye on the television screen. All three candidates deserved a more dignified appointment process, without dramas. Alon Ben-David is Channel Ten’s military affairs commentator.

Al-Monitor – December 6, 2015 How the Islamic State Hurts the Palestinian Cause By Uri Savir  There is great frustration within the leadership of the Palestinian Authority about the shift in the international community’s agenda in the aftermath of the Paris terror attacks of Nov. 13. Before that, Iran had been, for months, the focal point of interest and attention. But now — and for a considerable time period to come — it will be the Islamic State. The more moderate elements of the Palestinian leadership are questioning whether the path to international attention goes through extremism and violence.  A senior Fatah source in Ramallah told Al-Monitor, on condition of anonymity, that while many Palestinians empathize with the anti-Western sentiment prevalent in several Arab countries, the attitude toward IS is one of great hostility. He said, “We feel that IS is kidnapping Islam toward a misguided interpretation and toward a stigma of violence in the eyes of the world. IS is a disaster for Islam and for the Palestinian cause; they [the misguided interpretation and the stigma of violence] are the best allies of the Israeli right’s campaign to continue the occupation with the excuse of fighting Islamic terror. Palestinian resistance is about achieving a legitimate Palestinian state, not an Islamic caliphate.”  The source also emphasized that IS' success in hijacking international attention is a challenge to the nonviolent policies of President Mahmoud Abbas. Many in the leadership of the PA are asking the rais (president): “Maybe in order to get America’s attention, we should renew the armed struggle?”  The Fatah official said, with great anger, “We will not let IS, or for that matter the other fundamentalist movements, take a ride on our back. Palestinian independence and Jerusalem are not their cause.”  He claimed that within Fatah’s leadership, deliberations are taking place on how to place Palestinian statehood back on the international agenda.  Indeed, this is a difficult predicament for the Palestinians. The moderate position of Abbas and his security cooperation with Israel have not paid off; this was made clear to the Palestinian president during US Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to Ramallah on Nov. 24. Opting for a violent intifada may be the last option left to him but, at the same time, this option may be endangering the stability of his regime. In this situation, Abbas — according to the Fatah source — would have preferred an international diplomatic initiative at the UN Security Council or with the P5+1 (five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany). Alas, that now seems virtually impossible. And so, other policy options must be considered in Ramallah.  Indeed, the IS threat on international stability is the prime preoccupation of governments and public opinion in all Western countries. IS has also given the Netanyahu government the best possible arguments for evading a two-state solution; the prime minister equates IS terror attacks in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Egypt with the unorganized Palestinian terror against Israelis.

 This is not how the Israeli army sees it; its perception of the situation differs from that of the prime minister. According to press reports across Israeli media on Nov. 25, a senior military source in the Israel Defense Forces' Central Command characterized the great majority of Palestinian terror attacks as inspired by the despair of individuals, not guided from above, and recommended the strengthening of the PA, including the supply of arms.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected the army’s recommendation, as his office announced to the press the same day. He also refused Kerry’s proposals for a settlement freeze and a transfer of economic responsibilities in West Bank Area C (under Israeli civil and security control) for Palestinian agricultural and industrial development. The prime minister is concerned with the wave of daily terror incidents, but as with all Palestinian violence against Israel, he first sees it as an opportunity to evade serious negotiations for a two-state solution and to gain more ground with his right-wing base.  Rejecting the army’s recommendations during a violent struggle is quite rare in the Israeli decision-making process. Netanyahu remains consistent in his two main strategic targets, as defined by him in the March 17 elections: the prevention of the establishment of a Palestinian state and securing the support of the right wing, including the settlers. A Likud Knesset member backbencher told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “The good thing about Netanyahu is that he says what he thinks, the bad thing is that he actually believes what he says.”  The Paris terror attacks by IS have affected the Israeli-Palestinian equation. The Palestinians feel completely hopeless about achieving diplomatic progress on a two-state solution and the Israeli government feels vindicated in its desire to prevent this option. This may very well lead to further escalation, toward large-scale violence in and from the West Bank. The danger of a large-scale intifada or intensified terror activities should ring alarm bells in Western capitals. The current situation could turn Netanyahu’s view of Islamic IS-like terror against Israel into a self-fulfilling prophecy, including religious violence over Jerusalem.  In the aftermath of the Paris attacks, an American diplomatic initiative creating a path leading to a two-state solution is of great importance. Tactical confidence-building measures, as suggested by the secretary of state, will not suffice. One should not underestimate the potential of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to produce doomsday scenarios. Uri Savir has spent his professional life working on the strategies of peacemaking in Israel. In 1996, he established the Peres Center for Peace and is currently the center's honorary president.