Nuclear Hardening to Protect Satellites Against High-Altitude

OHB System AG Johan Ideström, Space Radiation Environment Analyst ESWW 2018 Leuven, 8th November 2018

Nuclear hardening to protect satellites against high-altitude-nuclear-explosions (HANE) Nuclear hardening to protect satellites against high-altitude-nuclear-explosions

Motivation for this topical discussion meeting  USA, Russia have nuclear harden military satellites, maybe even China(?)  In Europe only military satellites from UK, France and Italy are nuclear harden  Spain is currently working on it  Germany has currently no nuclear harden satellites  Germany military (BW) has two communications satellites, BW-SATCOM 1 and 2  A third, BW-SACOM-3, will be build in the future  There are 3 satellite manufactures in Europe: Airbus, TAS, OHB  OHB counts as a German company and is the preferred partner for German military  Airbus and TAS build nuclear hardened satellites, OHB never did it  The German military might consider to order nuclear hardened satellites in the future  NATO standard AEP-50: „Space and Nuclear Radiation Hardening Guidelines for Military Satellites: Electronics and Photonics” is applicable for all satellites in the CP-130 program  If German military wants to provide their satellites to NATO CP-130 then AEP-50 is applicable

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space environment challenges counter measurements

Awareness (Specifications) extreme Electrical Space Propulsion Weather Orbit events Raising synergy Mitigation (Deterrent)

Measurements Protection High (Sensors) (Hardening) Altitude Nuclear Explosions

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Satellite missions are facing new challenges:  all future (telecom) satellites will use Electrical Propulsion Orbit Raising (EPOR)  Instead of chemical GTO of 14 days, expect electrical GTO of 142~387 days  Total dose example: 200 days EPOR GTO = 6.7 years GEO

 Literature: [Horne and Pitchford, Space Weather Concerns for All-Electric (2015)]  150% total dose during mission lifetime of a satellite:  up to 50 % during EPOR GTO  100 % during 15 years in GEO  Not enough data of EPOR GTO region in the models = high uncertainties  Extreme SW events:  Carrington (1859), Quebec (1989), Halloween (2003), CME near miss to Earth (2012)

 Literature: [Extreme space weather - impacts on engineered systems and infrastructure(2013)]  High-Altitude-Nuclear- Explosion (HANE): EMP & Radiation belt pumping  Literature: [Collateral Damage to Satellites from an EMP Attack (2010)]

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Natural and man-made threats against satellies

 Natrual threats:  Space Weather (Carrington event)  Meteoroids  Atomic oxygen  Natural radiation from the radiation belts, the sun, and cosmic rays

 Man-made threats:  Space debris  Jamming  Cyber hacking  Artifical radiation from HANE  Electro magnetic pulse from HANE

 This presentation will continue to look more detailed into high-altitude-nuclear-explosions (HANE)

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Starfish Prime  1.4 mega tons TNT-equivalent explosion  altitude of 400km  produced an EMP much higher than expected  drove much of the instrumentation off scale  artificial auroral lights in Hawaii (1445km away)  knocking out about 300 streetlights

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09.July.1962 Starfish Prime 1.4Mt nuclear explosion in 400 km

10.July.1962 Start of Telstar into MEO orbit (952km), the first telecom satellite

32 satellites in earth orbit at the same time like Starfish Prime

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• 8 satellites have been damaged by Starfish Prime • of those 7 satellites malfunctioned within months after Starfish Prime • 8 of 32 satellites corresponds 25% of all satellites in earth orbit • 2018: • 1181 satellites in LEO • 25% = 295 satellites

• (Union of Concerned Scientists Satellite database, includes launches through 30th April 2018) • The satellites back then used 60‘s electronics, mondern satellites are now much more sensitive

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Overview of effects of nuclear explosions

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Environments Created By a High-Altitude Nuclear Detonation

 Direct Weapon Emissions  Photons  X-rays  Prompt Gamma Rays  Energetic Particles  Neutrons  Debris Ions

 Induced Environments  Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)  Energetic Particles  Energetic Heavy Ions  Delayed Gamma Rays  (Delayed) Beta Particles  Nuclear-Pumped Radiation Belts and Other Beta-Particle Effects  Photoemissions Other Than X-rays and Gamma Rays

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Radiation effects on satellites  instantaneous radiated effects  caused by massive emission of neutrons, X photons, Gamma rays  system damage or destruction following high dose rate events  single-event-effects: upset, latch-up or burn out  System Generated Electro Magnetic Pulse (SGEMP)  only satellites in line-of-sight are affected  effects diminish with 1/r² (inverse-square law)  delayed and persisting radiated effects  affect all geostationary satellites  scintillation effect (ionosphere disturbance), disruption of GPS  electronic enhancement of the Earth belt with trapped electrons  radiation belt pumping = additional total dose  Additional electrons follow the magnetic field lines

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Orbit Volume of Added Duration of Direct Indirect L-shell total dose additional attack: attack: total dose required required rocket range latitude LEO small large years 600 km 0° ~ 25°

MEO medium medium months 18000 km 45°~ 60°

GEO large small weeks 36000 km 55° ~ 70°

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EMP Conclusions  All satellites, regardless of orbit, are vulnerable to direct attack  Ground control stations for satellites are subject to direct attack by EMP or any other means  An attack on MEO or GEO satellites by high latitude detonations for the purpose of populating electron belts at those altitudes would require large yields (> 10 Mt)  Satellites in MEO or GEO are not at risk to immediate loss from radiation damage resulting from a credible EMP attack anywhere on Earth  All satellites in LEO are at risk to serious damage from line-of-sight or enhanced radiation belt exposure resulting from EMP attacks over many geographical locations of the Earth

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Cold War versus Satellite Age

Cold War Satellite Age

Nuclear Deterrence Satellite Deterrence

Mutal Assured Destruction Mutal Assured Vurnability

Nuclear Winter Dead Zones (radiation belt pumping / Kessler Syndrome)

cities are hostages in a nuclear war satellites are hostages in a space war

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HANE

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NATO mutual defence trigger in space ?  Article 5 = Casus foederis (mutal defense trigger)  Article 6 = For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack… on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America … in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer …  The following places are not covered by Article 5 and Article 6:  Hawaii  Guam  French-Guayana  Falkland Islands  LEO  MEO  GEO  Moon  Mars  Ganymede  LEO lays outside of the NATO member nations' territories = no mutual defence trigger

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Threat scenario through North-Korean HANE  North-Korea performed so far only under ground nuclear tests  It has to prove that it can perform nuclear explosions as well above ground  Exo-atmospheric test is much cleaner than surface test  Scenario: North-Korea performs a test in the Pacific in international no-man‘s land  HANE explosion in LEO  Demonstration of nuclear capability, and no human has been harmed  If no human has been harmed = no retaliatory attack  HANE in LEO = no NATO mutual defence trigger  All satellites in LEO are affected  direct effect: destruction of satellites  indirect effect: life span of other satellites is shorten massively  perfect for North-Korea which owns no satellites on their own  typical asymmetric conflict

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Strategies for nuclear hardening of satellites  No retrofit upgrade of old satellite designs  New design with nuclear hardening in mind from the beginning  Higher radiation requirements in the specifications:  make AEP-50 applicable (or other standard if AEP-50 is not available)  more demanding space environment definition (dose-depth-curve and so on)  mandatory usage of RadHard EEE-parts  mandatory usage of spot shielding for all EEE-parts  mandatory sensor/monitor for total dose and charging  shielding analysis: mandatory use of Monte-Carlo calculations instead of ray-tracing  Optimization of the satellite architecture:  Usage of a „radiation vault“ where all units are placed in  low-Z/high-Z/low-Z graded shielding (e.g. high-Z coating on Aluminium panels)  EMP-hardening: “nuclear event” detector & quick turn-off / turn-on process  for direct effects: a “sacrifice skin” to absorb the energy and impact of the direct explosion  Paradox: LEO is most affected, but nuclear hardening is only considered for GEO

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Conclusion  GEO satellites are more affected from HANE than LEO satellites  Nuclear hardening of GEO satellites is cheaper than hardening of LEO satellites  With only 5/10/20/? % additional cost you can shield the satellite against most effects  In GEO are indirect effects much more likely than direct effects  Space environment sensors/monitors for total dose and charging are absolutely necessary  With a total dose sensor (external & internal) you can measure how much additional radiation you are exposed to after a HANE and you don‘t need to guess  Synergy effects in hardening, by harden against  Space Weather(Halloween storm 2003, Carrington Event 1859)  HANE  Electrical propulsion orbit raising (EPOR)  Worst case scenario:  HANE during a 200 days EPOR period („sitting duck slow moving duck scenario“)  You can’t “duck and cover” during an EPOR period  Quicker EPOR trajectories which avoid the inner (proton) belt are needed

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Open discussion points:

 is it possible to simulates HANE effects in SPENVIS or OMERE?

 could the simulation of solar proton event (SPE) in SPENVIS or OMERE emulate the effects of HANE?

 are GEO satellites already indirectly hardened? (since the radiation belt pumping effects due to HANE in GEO orbit would decay within weeks)

 are synergies in hardening against EPOR/Carrington/HANE to be expected?

 can lessons of Jupiter missions applied to nuclear hardening?

 how to raise awareness about HANE and radiation belt pumping?

 Cost estimate: how much additional budget is necessary is necessary for nuclear hardening?

 Is the AEP-50 standard still up to date? Do we need a new standard?

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Additional slides added on 21st November 2018

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