Preakness Analysis
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
PREAKNESS ANALYSIS By Jerry Brown When we analyzed the Derby a couple of weeks ago, we pointed out that in recent years only two or three horses per year were running tops on the first Saturday in May. Sure enough, although three of the first four finishers equaled their previous top, only two ran new tops. While two of the three fastest horses in the Preakness come out of the Derby, this race has a decidedly different flavor, from a sheets handicapping point-of-view several of the slower horses have a chance to run new tops. CHEROKEE’S BOY got very good last fall, banging out a series of very good numbers. It looks like his connections were intent on making hay while the sun shines with this precocious colt, racing him 11 times since last September without a real break, which may be why he hasn’t broken through. Still, he has held up very well, and two of his last three are lifetime tops. He goes into this race a couple of points too slow to be a serious contender, but since he has only developed one point from his 2yr-old top a new top may be coming, and with four weeks rest it could happen now. Unlikely winner, but has a chance for a check. Since 1998, Capuano has had 133 starts with spring (March 1 to June 30) 3-yr olds. Only 23% have run a new top, with another 13% pairing up previous tops—both the new top and combined percentage are the lowest of any trainer in this race. This could mean that Capuano pushes his 2yr-olds, and they don’t develop much at three. FOUFA’S WARRIOR was very promising after his first two starts, but hasn’t developed at all since. Murray is doing very well recently (see last 90 days stat), but this horse is very slow with these, and there is no reason to believe a 6 point new top is coming. FUNNY CIDE Let’s get the bragging out of the way first—we were responsible for the purchase of sire Distorted Humor as a racehorse, and now he has sired a Kentucky Derby winner in his first crop. Funny Cide was more precocious than any other Derby winner since Thoro-Graph began making figures in 1982—no other winner has broken 6 as a 2yr-old. This gelding has never really gone back—the 7-1/4 was on a dead rail (“x” next to the number), and he has only moved two points from his juvenile top, so there is no reason to believe that pair killed him. Also, as opposed to Capuano, Tagg’s spring 3yr-old’s have run new tops 40% of the time, an indication he does not push his young horses as hard. So overall it is very likely Funny Cide can repeat his Derby effort, and a chance he can improve upon it. But—will that be good enough? In the Derby he got a dream, ground saving trip (1w2w, upper left of page), and did not earn nearly as good a figure as runner-up Empire Maker, who was wide on both turns. Funny Cide goes into the Preakness as the third fastest horse (third best top), and is almost guaranteed of losing more ground on the turns this time, so his chance of winning without a new top is not great. Very likely to run well, and a contender, but an underlay. KISSIN SAINT was a sharp claim in his second start, and peaked with a good number in late March before bouncing in the Wood on short rest, in the mud. Trainer Lewis’s horses have been running remarkably well this spring—not only is her last 90 days stat good, but of her 26 dirt starters this year, 11 (42%) have run new tops, which, although a small sampling, is by far the highest of any trainer in the race, and there are some pretty good trainers present. This colt is a point or so slow going in, but with 5 weeks rest has a very good chance to come back to his top, and some chance to break through. Usable at a big price. MIDWAY ROAD jumped up dramatically in his third start when stretching out and adding lasix, bounced a little, then ran poorly on turf and sprinting before exploding last time out when back around two turns. That race us actually slightly better than Funny Cide ran in the Derby (!!), and he goes into this race slower than only Peace Rules. The bad news, of course, is that it is a big jump, and a bounce is certainly possible. The good news is that it is not that much better than his 2yr-old top, and spring 3yr-olds often pair up tops, even off ugly jumps. Additionally, trainer Howard’s dirt runners this year have either matched or exceeded their tops in 18 of 29 starts (62%, highest of anyone in the race), and his spring 3yr-old’s have paired or improved on their tops in 56% of their starts since 1998. He doesn’t push his young horses, and Midway Road is a longshot with a chance, and value. NEW YORK HERO developed an awful lot in a short period of time, peaking with the big effort at Turfway. He bore out (bo) that day, the first sign of wear and tear, and sure enough was unable to approach his top in the starts since then. The last was a slight move back towards the top, but since both the last two were worse than the two that preceded the top, we have to think an abrupt return to his best is unlikely, especially on only two weeks rest. PEACE RULES was raced on grass in his first three starts after switching to Frankel’s barn, and then exploded when switched back to dirt. He paired up to win the Blue Grass, then bounced a little in the Derby, and goes into the Preakness with the two fastest figures in the race. As should be apparent by now, stake level 3yr-olds run a high percentage of tops, and it’s especially true if they are trained by Frankel—since 1998, an astounding 72% of his starts with spring 3yr-olds have yielded either a new top or a repeated top. Which means there is a very good chance Peace Rules will make a quick return to his top, and since he has the tactical speed to avoid getting a wide trip, he is clearly the most likely winner. SCRIMSHAW ran a very big number for a 2yr-old in December, and it hurt. Following a brief layoff for a throat operation he was able to return to his top in the Lexington, before bouncing a little in the Derby, although that effort was not as bad as it looked—he was wide (4w3w). On balance, the pattern is neutral—a return to a top and a small bounce on a 3yr-old often will yield a return to the top, and sometimes a new top. But this will be his third start in four weeks, and Lukas’s stats this year are not good—overall, his dirt runners have paired or run new tops less than 30% of the time, the lowest of any trainer in the race. Borderline contender. SENOR SWINGER came out running, but hasn’t developed since. He was able to run his top on grass, and that is probably where his future lies—turf stakes for 3yr-olds in this country are much softer than dirt stakes. The short term pattern here is okay, and a new top is possible, but the short rest doesn’t help, and he would need a big jump to get involved. TEN CENTS A SHINE was very promising after three starts—he ran well as a 2yr-old, but not so well as to hurt himself, and showed he could handle two turns. After a good 3yr-old debut he fell apart entirely in his next three, and may of us thought Lukas was nuts to run him in the Derby. Well, chalk one up for Wayne—he ran the best race of his life. That top is only 1-1/2 points better than he ran as a 2yr-old, so he may very well be capable of better, soon, and although he is running on only two weeks rest, he didn’t expend a whole lot of energy in his prior starts. Lukas has pulled some rabbits out of his hat before, and this one is usable at a big price. OVERVIEW The draw hurt Funny Cide, who will start outside horses with a similar racing style, and probably will be forced to race outside Peace Rules on both turns. One path on one turn is worth one length, or ½ Thoro-Graph point, and if Funny Cide is 3 or more wide on both turns a lot of the slower horses could be brought even with him, assuming he runs exactly as well as he has in his last two. Peace Rules has only one horse with any early speed inside of him, and so should get either a good or great trip, from a ground loss point of view, making him by far the most likely winner. It might be worthwhile taking a shot against Funny Cide in the exotics, with the most usable horses being Kissin Saint, Ten Cents A Shine, Midway Road, and since he drew the rail, Cherokee’s Boy.