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Emergency Managers On-Line Survey on Extratropical and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Information: Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program/Storm Surge Roadmap

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Emergency Managers On-Line Survey on Extratropical and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Information: Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program/Storm Surge Roadmap Emergency Managers National Science On-FoundationLine Survey on Extratropical and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Information: Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program/Storm Surge Roadmap January, 2013 Betty Hearn Morrow Jeffrey K. Lazo Research Applications Laboratory Weather Systems and Assessment Program Societal Impacts Program NCAR Technical Notes National Center for Atmospheric Research P. O. Box 3000 Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000 www.ucar.edu NCAR/TN-497 +STR NCAR TECHNICAL NOTES http://www.ucar.edu/library/collections/technotes/technotes.jsp The Technical Notes series provides an outlet for a variety of NCAR Manuscripts that contribute in specialized ways to the body of scientific knowledge but that are not yet at a point of a formal journal, monograph or book publication. Reports in this series are issued by the NCAR scientific divisions, published by the NCAR Library. Designation symbols for the series include: EDD – Engineering, Design, or Development Reports Equipment descriptions, test results, instrumentation, and operating and maintenance manuals. IA – Instructional Aids Instruction manuals, bibliographies, film supplements, and other research or instructional aids. PPR – Program Progress Reports Field program reports, interim and working reports, survey reports, and plans for experiments. PROC – Proceedings Documentation or symposia, colloquia, conferences, workshops, and lectures. (Distribution maybe limited to attendees). STR – Scientific and Technical Reports Data compilations, theoretical and numerical investigations, and experimental results. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is operated by the nonprofit University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) under the sponsorship of the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. National Center for Atmospheric Research P. O. Box 3000 Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000 ISSN Print Edition 2153-2397 ISSN Electronic Edition 2153-2400 Emergency Managers On-Line Survey on Extratropical and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Information: Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program/Storm Surge Roadmap Betty Hearn Morrow SocResearch Miami, Miami, FL Jeffrey K. Lazo National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO NCAR/TN-497+STR NCAR Technical Note Published By: NCAR Library January, 2013 EMERGENCY MANAGERS ON-LINE SURVEY ON EXTRATROPICAL AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST INFORMATION: HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM/STORM SURGE ROADMAP Betty Hearn Morrow SocResearch Miami Jeffrey K. Lazo Societal Impacts Program National Center for Atmospheric Research PO Box 3000 Boulder, CO 80307 January 31, 2013 ETTC Emergency Manager Survey This page intentionally left blank. NCAR Societal Impacts Program ETTC Emergency Manager Survey CONTENTS TABLES ____________________________________________________________________ ii FIGURES ___________________________________________________________________ iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ______________________________________________________ iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY __________________________________________________ ES-1 Purpose _______________________________________________________________________ ES-1 Survey Development, Implementation, and Sample ____________________________________ ES-1 Summary of Results _____________________________________________________________ ES-2 1. BACKGROUND ___________________________________________________________ 1 2. METHODS ________________________________________________________________ 4 2.1 Survey Development ____________________________________________________________ 4 2.2 Sample _______________________________________________________________________ 4 2.3 Data Collection and Analysis ______________________________________________________ 6 3. RESULTS _________________________________________________________________ 7 3.1 Regional Hazards Risk and Public Preparation ________________________________________ 7 3.2 Opinions Regarding Storm Forecast Products _________________________________________ 9 3.2.1 Storm Surge Warning ________________________________________________________ 9 3.2.2 Storm Surge Warning Area Map _______________________________________________ 12 3.2.3 Storm Surge Inundation Maps _________________________________________________ 14 3.2.4 Forecast Track Cone Maps ___________________________________________________ 19 3.2.5 Wind Map ________________________________________________________________ 22 3.2.6 Wind and Cone Maps _______________________________________________________ 23 3.2.7 Arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds _________________________________________ 25 3.3 Use of Forecast Services _________________________________________________________ 27 4, SUMMARY ______________________________________________________________ 32 REFERENCES ______________________________________________________________ 34 Appendix A. Advance Letter and Invitation Email Sent To Broadcast Meteorologists __ App. A-1 Pre-Contact Letter____________________________________________________________ App. A-2 Invitation Email _____________________________________________________________ App. A-3 Appendix B. Survey Questions and Summary of Responses ______________________ App. B-1 NCAR Societal Impacts Program i ETTC Emergency Manager Survey TABLES Table 2-1. Location of Respondents ______________________________________________________ 5 Table 3-1. Incidence of Activations for Storms in Last 10 Years (%) ____________________________ 8 Table 3-2. Level of Concern About Hazards (%) ____________________________________________ 9 Table 3-3. Opinion about Storm Surge Watches and Warnings (%) ____________________________ 10 Table 3-4. Opinions about Effects of Storm Surge Warning (%) _______________________________ 11 Table 3-5. Preference for Storm Surge Labels (%) __________________________________________ 15 Table 3-6. Assessment of Combined Wind and Cone Map (%) ________________________________ 24 Table 3-7. Assessment of Arrival to TS Force Winds Map (%) ________________________________ 26 Table 3-8. Reasons for Using Commercial Vendors (%) _____________________________________ 27 Table 3-9. How Often Use Public Weather Sources (%) _____________________________________ 28 Table 3-10. How Often Use Internet Websites (%) _________________________________________ 28 NCAR Societal Impacts Program ii ETTC Emergency Manager Survey FIGURES Figure ES-1. (A) Potential storm surge area in one color; (B) Potential storm surge depths in graduations of one color; (C) Potential storm surge depths in different colors ________________________ ES-3 Figure ES-2. (A) Current tropical cyclone forecast cone; (B) Transparent forecast error cone with dashed lines; (C) Transparent forecast error cone with no lines _______________________________ ES-3 Figure ES-3. Potential for damaging winds _____________________________________________ ES-4 Figure ES-4. (A) Combined wind and cone; (B) Combined wind and cone – land only ___________ ES-5 Figure ES-5. Arrival of tropical storm force winds _______________________________________ ES-5 Figure 2-1. Locations of sample _________________________________________________________ 6 Figure 3-1. Comparison of hazard risk and public vulnerability ________________________________ 7 Figure 3-2a. Vulnerability to tropical storms Figure 3-2b. Vulnerability to extratropical storms _______ 8 Figure 3-3. Experimental graphic for showing area under storm surge warning ___________________ 13 Figure 3-4. Perceived effectiveness of storm surge warning map ______________________________ 13 Figure 3-5. Potential storm surge area in one color _________________________________________ 16 Figure 3-6. Potential storm surge depths in graduations of one color ___________________________ 17 Figure 3-7. Potential storm surge depths in different colors ___________________________________ 18 Figure 3-8. Map preference ____________________________________________________________ 19 Figure 3-9. Current tropical cyclone forecast cone __________________________________________ 20 Figure 3-10. Transparent forecast error cone with dashed lines ________________________________ 21 Figure 3-11. Transparent forecast error cone with no lines ___________________________________ 21 Figure 3-12. Preference for tropical cyclone forecast cone ___________________________________ 22 Figure 3-13. Potential for damaging winds ________________________________________________ 23 Figure 3-14. Combined wind and cone ___________________________________________________ 24 Figure 3-15. Combined wind and cone – land only _________________________________________ 24 Figure 3-16. Arrival of tropical storm force winds __________________________________________ 26 NCAR Societal Impacts Program iii ETTC Emergency Manager Survey ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Special thanks to Jesse Feyen, Jamie Rhome, Jennifer Sprague, and Robert Berg for their leadership on this project and to Ethan Gibney for his work on the prototype graphics. We are also indebted to Keelin Kuipers, Mary Erikson, Julie Demuth, Crystal Burghardt, Jennifer Boehnert, and Christina Thomas for their assistance with this research, analysis, and report. We appreciate numerous others from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) who contributed through conference calls and reviews. Most of all we are indebted to the emergency managers who took considerable time out of their busy schedules to complete the survey. This
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