Editor's Column TABLE OF CONTENTS he budget deficit seems 10 beone of th ose i ssues for which no one EDITOR'S COLUMN ...... 2 T has answers. But the truth is a multitude of solutions exist. The real PROFILES AND PERSPECTIVES: question is whether Ameri ca's citizens A Conversation with Linda DiVali •• ••• • ••• •• • ••••• •• • • ••••• 3 and political leaders have the will to pursue measures which would restore TESTING THE SOCIAL CONTRACT our economic vitality. Anhur George _ ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••7 That unknown is the $Ubl eX I underly­ ing the budget s ummit now be ing EDITORIALS: engaged in between leaders from How to Get Out of the Budget Morass •••••••••••••••• • . ••••••• 8 Capitol Hill and the While House. Four of the key principals in the debale, POLAND ASSESSED: Beyond Ihe Iron Curtain which has an indefinite life, are featured Padraic Sweeney ••••.• • •••••• •••• •• •• ••• •••• •• ••••••• •• 10 on our cover: President Bush, Speaker of the House Thomas Foley. House BOBBIE KlLBERG: Making the White House Work Ways and Means CommiUee Chaimlan Williatll P. McKenzie ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • IS Dan ROSlcnkowski and Budgel Director Richard Darman. Their leadership will A REPUBLICAN HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES? be essential in putting America's economic position in forward drive. MAYBE. The Forum offer some specific ideas David A. Fuscus ••••••••• , ••• ••••••••••••• •• ••••••••••• 16 on how to do just thaI. This momh's editori al provides four points on how to DRUGS ' R US get out of the budget morass. So, too, Mariann Kurtz ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • •••••••• 18 Congressman Bill Clinger presents ideas on how the budget process can be THE RIPON AGENDA refonned. Donald T. Bliss, Jr. ••••••••••••••• .• •••••••• • •••••••••••• 19 Leading pollster Linda DiVali, whose cl ients include a number of top guber­ REVIEWS: natorial, senatorial and congressional Means and Ends: Robert A. Caro: candidates, discusses means by which Alfred W. Tate ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••20 American citizens wish to reduce the deficit. In her Forum interview, DiVali THE CHAIRMAN'S CORNER: also talks about the impact such issues Tbe Budget Summit and Why We Shouldn't Have 10 Have II: as the environment. education and abor­ Williatll Clinger •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••22 tion will have on Campaign '90. Forum editorial board member David 6 LIBRARY COURT ...... 23 Fuscus also analyzes the general elec­ tion. And book review editor Bill Tate's WASHINGTON NOTES AND QUOTES ...... •. 24 comments on Robert Caro's recent book on Lyndon Johnson, "The Means of Ascent." should have pan icular ap­ pli catio n for budget summileers. Johnson's li fe. Tale reminds us, had much to do about ends and means. RIPON/orum "4itil' '' William P. Mc K... ~ The Forum is panicularl y pleased to ProdM~fio~ Oi"cwr: B~ ley E. Kendall present Pat Sweeney's reponing piece "4itorUJI BlNlrd: Party. Manuscripls and phoIoJnplls .... """,ired. b.n on Po land's economi c reforms. D3vid A. F\l SCII~ do nor ... ~nr !he: VIC ...... of !he Soc;'ry unto-51 50 Slared. Srephen A. MesAII. and I I",nr ... nh NarioNl AstOCOIrc mcmben rhfOllpo..r rhe Unired ofere.r;ve cnlic:,srn and innovation in ,he R CpllbI~.n Srlr... R, pon i. Sllpponed by chaprC'l d ..... individual conrriburion •. and ... vat .... from ,10 pIIblkaloDns. _. Bill McKenzie

2 Ripoll Foruln , JI/lle 1990 PROFILES AND PERSPECTIVES A Conversation with Linda DiValI

Li nda DiVali Ripo n Forum : T he No ve mber dent Bush is saying about l

Ripol/ FOI"IIIll, JUlie 1990 3 war and the economy has been ro lling ce ived to be better at managing Gelling back to your overall question along relatively well . problems. on the conservative communit y. conser­ Drugs is issue number one with all One key change with President Bush vatives are now increasingly looking voters. The defi cit is typicall y a bit is that Republicans are now doing a bet­ ahead to a broader range of issues. I'd higher with Republicans. panicularly ter job competing with Democrats on call these "family issues:' and they in­ Republican men, than with Democrats. these issues. Democrats are still per­ clude day care. educational quality and There is not a real significant difference ceived as doing a beller job with the en­ health care. These are new fami ly issues between the panies, such as we saw vironment. but since President Bush has because the "Cleaver" family -- four from 1978 until 1981. given the environment much more at· people with a non-working mother-· no Ripon Forum: It seems to me that tention. the GOP is more competitive tonger is standard. these issues -- education, drugs and the than in the Reagan-Watt era. As the family unit changes. people environment -- are community-relmed worry about t he quality of the ir topics as opposed to individual liberty Every time you attach nephews' and nieces' education. or their concerns -- lo wer taxes, government parents' health care, or their own reti re­ deregulation or decemralized decision­ questions about a specific ment planni ng. The conservative com­ making. Since Republicans have often program, the more local in munity is recogni zi ng the iml>Ortanceof been equated with the laller, dothecom­ these issues and is reaching out to munity issues adverse ly affect the orientation the program, moderates. On the child care bill. for in­ GOP'? th e more people buy off 0 11 stance, m a ny conservatives a nd Di Vali : Those individual li beny is­ it. moderates worked together to formulate sues never come to the forefront of what a bill that would provide people with bothers most people. although they are choices about child care. m the heart of driving differences in Ripon Forum : Conse r va ti ve Ripon Forum: Are there issues which philosophy. RepUblican strategists argue that the tend to favor Re publica ns ove r Ripon Forum: Even lowenaxesdon't party's appeal. al least in presidential Democrats in this year's election? come to the forefront? elections. is based upon three essential Di Va li : The interesting thing about the DiVali: The overall issues you men­ beliefs: opposition to taxes; anti-com­ 1990 election is that three moderate tioned are nOi number one or twO today. munism and a strong national defense; Republican women are running for U.S. Of course, inherent in that list is a basic and conservative cultural values. Is this Senate: Lynn Martin in Ill inois. belief that Republicans allow more in­ kind of RepUblican platform applicable Claudine Schneider in Rh ode Island and dividuallibcrties and are less inclined to 10 the 1990 elections? Pat Saiki in Hawaii. They are in exact­ have governmen t di c tate cert a in DiVali: It seems that we are coming ly the right place at the right time. Al­ freedoms. close to a shattering of that trend. Taxes though Democrats traditionally have With the emergence of the Webster is an issue with which many slateS and held an advantage over Republicans on abortion ruling last summer, there has localities must deal. We are also in the issues like health care. the envi ronment been a clash in terms of what the midst of a national budget summit and education. female candidates hold Republic,m philosophy should be on a where everything. including taxes. is on the advantage over male candidates on very emotional and personal issue. In the table. Then there arc the sweeping Ihese issues. Martin. Schneider and my opi nio n. that is the real ho ld changes in Eastern Europe. where com­ Saiki also possess expertise in other Democrats have on the abortion issue. munism is c rumbling. The Soviet fie lds. They have basically challenged a key economy is also in desperate shape. and Ripon Forum: As you know, an on­ tenet of Republican ph ilosophy, name­ people are wondering how long Gar­ going deoole exists about whether or not ly that many Republicans are true li ber­ bachev can hang on. the Republican Part y should emphasize tarians. They don' t believe government Regarding conservative c ultural larger national issues or local issues in should interfere in personal matters. values, abortion has moved in to th e general elections. What is your opinion The Delllocrats have been smart enough forefront . The problem in 1990 is not about this choice? In particular. which to seize upon this philosophical tenet electing pro-choice Republicans but should be emphasized in th is year's and drive a wedge into a key component pro-life Republicans. The latter feel in­ election? of the Republican coali tion. creasingly threatened. although my DiVali: You utilize whatever will Ripon Forum: Are Democrats per· sense is that over the last year the power work in a particular elec tion cycle. ceived in the public's eye as bei ng more of the abort ion issue has been reduced. Having been part of the 1980 team that eq uipped to deal with such issues as We just got back a poll from a key Nor­ came up with "Vote Republican For a education. the e nvironment or th e theastern state and precisely two people Change," I can say that the 1980 elec­ homeless? mentioned abortion as the most impor­ tion was unique. Democrats controlled DiVa li : Traditionall y Democrats have tant problem. everyt hing: the While House. the held the edge on the perceptioll that Ripon Forum: Only two? Senate, the House of Representatives they would be bener able to tackle these DiVali: Two out of 600. Every poll and a large chunk of state legislatures problems. The problems you mentioned I've seen over the last six months has and gubernatorial mansions. A very are cons ide red ··people-ori e nted." not had more than fo ur percent of Ihe high level of dissatisfacti on also ex­ Democrats are seen as being for the people sayi ng that abortion is the most isted. In November 1979. 78% of the working person. Republicans arc per- important problem. people said things were going off tmck.

4 Ripoll Forum. JUII(' 1990 There was a way then to captu re t.hat Likewise, Lee Atwater has met with are very aware of the o pportunities that anger and focus it on one entity. the Corella SCOII King four or five limes present themselves if they can get a Democratic Party. and has uaveled throughout the South to qualit y educati on. These voters are very But now things have c han ged. meet with black leaders. These kinds o f concerned about the educational system Republicans ha ve been in control of the signals carry a powerful message to the in thei r communities. White House for 10 years. Six of those black community. That alone is not In the three stales you mentioned. 10 years the GOP also controlled the going to deli ver 50% of the black vote. Republican g ubernatorial candidates U.S. Senate. Once you control the but it does say there is a new openness are making definite overtures to the White House, people perceive that you to the Republican Party. Hispanic community. The candidates control government. So our ability to Ripon Forum: What issues should be understand the Hispanic communities' run on a national agenda is hampered by emphasized to increase black partic ipa­ increased clout. They also recognize this perception. Most people wi ll say tion in the GOP? th e re is a ni ce mat c h w it h the that the key to winni ng local races is to !)iVa ll : One area is c rime and drug Republican agenda. ru n on local issues. I am a finn believer abuse. Many inner c ity blacks feel vic ­ in that. timized by crime and drugs. That Presi­ We may be seeing less oj dent Bush continues to state hi s intent to the rules and habits that The interesting thing dea l wi th these proble ms. and has presented some signi fi cant measures. dictated in the past. Get­ abow the 1990 election is shows he understands their importance. ting involved at the local thai three moderate Crime and drugs are not JUSt a border Republican women are problem. but are pan of the continuing level allows one to have a b:mlc in inner ci ty schools. voice, instill pride and running Jar U.S. Senate. Another issue is education. Blacks They are in exactly the very much want the best quality educa­ discipline, andJind tion. That represents a means of advan­ opportunity. right place at the right cement. Also. Jack Kemp's work at the lime. Department of Housing and Urban Development is significam, He has tried Ripon Forum: Let's take Texas, Ripon Forum: Do you find in your to eli minate the depanment 's fraud and where a strong. even rawhide conserva­ polling that education and drugs are has met wi th many black leaders to di s­ tive. Clayton Williams. is running for fairly standard conce rn s across the cuss the importanceofhomeownershi p. governor. Is he having success with hi s U.S.? Or are there particular issues in. Ge nerall y assumed in everything I've message in South Texas. where many say. Rhode Island that will affect a race said is the import.mce of continued Hispanics reside? there? economic growth . DiVali : He certainly is. Number one. DiVali : Eac h state is very different. In Ripon Forum: Do you see any shift in Clayton Wi ll iams speaks Spani sh and Oregon they are concerned with the your polling data about bl:1 Ck voting isn't conceding the Hispanic vote to spoiled owl and its impact on the timber patt erns. or do Republicans still draw A nn Richard s. Number two. many industry. In Rhode Island they are con­ about 12 % of the black community? Hispanics are more conservative, so he cern ed with oil spills. There is al ways a DiVali: II's tOO soon 10 te ll, but, again, is doing quite well in many pans of state-by-state difference, and successful moderate RepUblican candidates like South Texas whe re De mocrats have candidates identify the local problems Lynn Martin may peel away apart of the traditionally assumed they own the and come up with workable so lutions. black vote. The proof w ill be if vote. Ripon Forum: George Bush ' s Republicans move from 6-9% of the Ripon Forum: But governme nt is popularity ratings among blac k voters black vote to. say. 15%. Then we go to ofte n seen a s a fr iend to man y remain hi gh. in some polls well over the extremely important 1992 Senate min o ri ti es. What happe n s when 50%. To what do you attribute this electi ons. where about a half-d07.e n key Republicans appear anti-government? ra ting. and does it portend a larger shift Southern Democratic senators are up !)iVall: It 's fi ne to say that govern- in black voting panerns? for re-election. One reason we lost so me nt is our fri end . But if after 20 years DiVali: What I attri bute it to, very many key Senate races in 1986 is that blacks and Hispanics haven't seen their frankl y. is President Bush saying that we received a low percentage of the situation improve, they may begin to the Republican Party must re ach oultO black vote. If we can double that per­ look twice at that approach, They may blacks. If we are going to become a centage. we are in a position of gaining be saying. " Why should wejusl assume majority part y. we are goi ng to have to back those seats. Democrats will best deliver progress? make that effort. Certainly the president Ripon Forum: Hispanic and Asian Maybe we do need a more conservati ve has been al the forefront of that out­ voters are also becoming -- and soon approach. where it's not necessaril y rellch. wi ll be -- central voting blocs in such coming from the federal govemment." Just recentl y Benjamin Hooks (execu­ e lectora ll y- rich states as Califo rnia. We may be seeing less of the rules and ti ve director of the NAACP) mentio ned Texas and Florida. What issues most habits that dictated in the past. Gett ing that he has already mel e ight times with concern Hispanics and Asians? involved al the local level allows o ne 10 President Bush. He only met with Presi­ DiVali : Agai n. education and crime. have a vo ice. instill pride anddiscipline, de nt Reagan o nce in e ig ht years. Both Hispanic and Asian commun ities and find opponunily.

Ripon Forum, l Illie 1990 5 Ril>on Forum: You mentioned that in 1988 George Bush preempted some is­ sues Democrats had made their own during the Reagan em. such as the en­ vi ronment. Now that we are 18 months illlo the Bush admin is tration. do voters seem 10 trust one pany more than Ihe other on the envi ronment? DiVali : Democrals slill genemll y win on dealing with the environment . But when you look al individual ra ces. such as Claudi ne Schneider versus Claiborne Pell in Rhode Island. some Republicans hold the advantage on Ihe environment. Ripon Forum: If you were to guess today. wi ll the abortion issue hann or hel p the Repu blican Pan y thi s Novem­ ber? ing. the decision to allow a woman to an 0pporlu nit y over the nex t four years have an abortion in the fi rst th ree or four to make significant House gains. Thi s is Abortion will be less oj a months is one voters sign off on. due to:l poss ible large number of open But \'oters are 110t prone to listen to an scat s if campaign fi nance refoml is Jactar than in 1989 be­ argument on restrictions firs t. If the can­ passed, Incumbents would be allowed calise Republican didate starts OUI wi th restricti ons first. 10 keep their "war chests." but on ly if candidates are more then that appears thcy are in favor of Ihey re lire. My hunch is a num ber wi ll banning abortions first. t:lke the money and run. prepared to deal with the Ripon Forum: A finnl question on the We also arc cominu ing to have a Issue. 1990elections. Wh utnre the ad vantages reali gnment of sorts. More and more and disadva ntages of candidates like peopl e are ide ntifyi ng with the Claudine Schneider, Torn Tauke and Republican Pan y. If we arc successful DiVali: Abortion will be less of II fac­ Pat Saiki, who arc fi scally conservative in holding on to the governor's scats in lOr th lln in 1989 because Republican ;md sociall y progressive? California, Texas and Florida. we wi ll candidates are more prepared to deal OiVall: The advantages are that Ihey have an opportunity of dmwing lines in wi th Ihe issue. They ha ve reall y Ihought have a president who is much in the scats Ihat comprise about a third of the through their position. Frankl y. they are same way, From Ihe top of Ihe pany to House, less defensive. They understand it is an these key Senate races you ha ve a nice Ripon Forum: I know you don't wa nt issue wi th much conflict. mesh ofmessage:md philosophy, There to:ldmit this, but aren'l po llsters becom­ Every poll we've seen ~i vides people is nothing inconsistent wi th the ap· ing the mosl essenti al player on a cam· into six segments. About six percent arc proaches. Some peoplc would argue paign team , outside of the campuign hard pro-life, about six percellt are hard that in 1980 and '82 it might ha ve been manager? pro-choice lind the rest fall in the mid­ difficult for the Lynn Martins. Torn DiVali: Let's stan with the premise dle. Repu bl icans generall y are findi ng Tau kes or Claudine Schneiders. Then th:llihe mosl imponant pan of the team that we don 't have 10 be as scared. but you needed a harder·edged conserva­ is the candidate. we absolutely must take it seri ously, tive candidate. Ril)On .·orum: Notice Ihat l didn't say There is no question that the pfOochoice Ripon Forum: Let me PUI you on the more import:lnt Ihan the cOlldidote. We coalition has become much more ener­ line. since you study this stuff more than haven't gOllen Ihal far yet. gized and is a significant poli tical fac­ the rest of us. Will Republicans pick up DiVali: My observation is Ihat we tor. BUI I would be surpriscd if there are Senate scats this year? have a lot of equ:l1 players. The can· a great number of races where abonion DiVa li : Yes. but not enough to get a did:lte. the C:lmpaign manager, the singlehanded ly defeats a Republican . majority. The election will put us in a media person, the pollster :lnd the Ripon Forum: Is there an y consensus position to try for u majority in 1992, fi nance person usually sit at Ihe Inble about a compromi se on this issue? Is when a presidential electio n wi ll in· together unci sign off on decisions. there any compromise Ihat appeals to crease vo ter turnout. Everything is lTemendously inl er· vo ters? Ripon Forum: How nmn y scats? twi ned. DiVali: The voters have sort of sug­ DiVali : J don', know. maybe acouple. I suppose I'd like 10 say the pollster is gested Ihat Ihey don't want to see abor­ There arc alwa ys surpri ses in Senate taking on inc reasin g importnnce. tion banned oUITight. But they don't contests on Election Night. But our role remains sensing the en­ believe abort.ion is morall y right. They Ripon Forum: Will the party defy his· vironment and being "proactive" 10 believe that it is too generall y available to ri cal traditions and pick up House data. Poll sters present the issues, outli ne and some restrictions ought to apply. seats during an off-year election? the coalitions and suggest ways of pee l­ Then you get into what son of restric­ DiVali : Those races are just beginning ing off votes. I'm not sure we are be­ ti ons arc reasonable. Generall y speak· to sh:l pe up. I don't know ye t. There is coming increasingly more importan t as

6 Ripon F orllll1. jUlie 1990 much as we are an assumed faclOT in the DiVall : There is not a general answer stralcgic fram ework of the campaign. to thaI question. lllcre :tre a lot of people We should remember, Ripon Forum: In his famous book of who are too busy to Ii !>te" 10 the nightly the 1920s. "Public Opinion:' Walter news. so thei r decisions are not shaped rhough, rhar polls are ollly Lippmann presents a less-than-exalted by el ites. They are talking to their wife, snapshots in time. We tend view of the electorale. suggesting Ihat neighbor or father-in· law. BUI I don 't most people are just followers of mass think there is anyone source Ihat die· TO allaly:e resulrs as if rhe culture. Do you find Ihat IOOay's elec­ tates how people shape their opinions. electioll were today. torate is more informed or more If anything. the process is becoming in· refined? creasingly fra gmented. granted. Unti l December 22 people in Di Va ll: There is no question that we Ripo n For um: Ess ayist C harles Rumania couldn'\ even walk down the have a more infonned eleclorate. Even Krauthammer recently wrote that street and have a conversation with five over the last 10 years the types of ques­ America's low voter turnoul is actually other people. Their turnout was ve ry tions we ask in foreign affairs or a healthy sign •• our li ves are becoming high. but the process was nawed be· economic policy have changed, Peoplc less politicized. He claims thaI the ev il cause of the intimidation techniq ues are not only more infonned but are more of totalitarian and ;lUthoritarian that prevailed in the weeks prior to the capllble of discerning complex mailers. societies is thaI they poli ticize the essen· election. We should remember, though. that tials of life, such as fami ly. work , But perhaps Ihe challenge \0 increas· polls are only snapshots in 'ime. We religion and play. Is it true that we ing our turnout is for candidates and tcnd to anal yze results as if the election :ohould we not be worried about low their campaigns to increase moti vation were today. But peoples' minds change voter turnout? in following the c'lmpaign process. as 11 campaign plays itse lf out. The art of Di Vali: I am increllsingly worried Frankly, that is why I believe both Lynn polling is looking a\ what is shaping about vo ter turnout. My perception is Martin and Claudine Schneider will peoples' decisions :Lnd whcther they arc co lored somewhat since I just returned benefit from an intangible plus on Elec· in [I mode to make a final decision. rrom Rumania. People there felt their tion Day. They are strong. unique per· Ripon Forum: Arc our general feel­ li ves were on the line in that country's sonalities who will .. and already ha ve ings aboul iss ues dri ve n mosil y by fi rst "free and f;li r" election. It ma y not .. challenged the status quo. • elites. or are they dri ve n by citizens' have been "frt."'e and fair." but I think we more direct interests, hopes or fears? take some of our basic freedoms for

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Ripo/l Forum.lllllt' / 990 7 EDITORIALS How to Get Out of the Budget Morass oyal Forum Readers will recall As expected, conservative leaders Threatens America's Future," Peter that in March we contended the wi thin and outside Washington balked Peterson and Neil Howe write that "Far L savings from the in evitable at the presidential proposal. The requi­ from targeuing the poor, Social Security reductions in military spending should site hand-holding and posturing oc­ cash benefits are actuall y regressive in be applied to reducing the federal curred soon thereafter: 10hn Sununu the sense that those with the highest deficit. But we also wrote thal lhe peace said th is, George Bush said that. and li fe time incomes receive the highest dividend-for-ddicit reduction swap Richard Dannan said th is and thaI. monthl y payments." does not mean the president in particular One misconception in the entitlement nor Republicans in general should ig­ debate is that the elderly beneficiaries of nore the growing demands for in­ UnforflinGt ely, the blldget the$250 bill ion per year Social Securit y frastructure and education improv­ talks are missing all program are primarily JXIOr. Look at men IS. or even aid to eme rgi ng opportllnity to highlight Ihese stati stics: The official poverty rate democracies. for the elderly in 1986 was 1.4 percent That reasoni ng sounds a bit encom­ the real problem : th e rate that for the nonelderly. When you fa c­ pass in g. of course. Where will the of growth infederal tor in "in·kind" publi c benefit s. the money come from to fund transporta­ poveny rate for the elderly fall s to one tion. education and democracy initia­ entitlement spending. third of the rate for the noneldc rl y. Also. tives? 14 percent of all Social Security cash Our answer then and now is economi­ But the fact that congressional and ad· benefits in 1986 went to the 12 percent cally simple. but politically difficult: ministration leaders are now engaged in of beneficiaries with cash incomes curtail the ralC of growth in up per-mid­ serious budget discussions is positive. above 600 percent of the poverty leve l. dle and upper class entitlement Even though theeconomic talks will pe­ Only 25 percent of the benefits we nt to programs: pursue defense and spending riodicall y break down. some answers the 34 percent wit h cash incomes strategies in a way which recognizes the should emerge. The most probable beneath 200 percent of the poveny level coming mUltipolar world: reduce inter· package will include a few tax in­ or less. est rates by engaging in reali stic creases, further defense cuts and rela­ Similary, federal civil serv ice and monetary reform: and rai se certain tive domestic spending restraints. military pension programs. which taxes. These policies would lower the But will the li kely combinati on be doubled in size as a share of th e federal deficit and free up money for ke y enough to significantl y alter the federal budget from 1971 · 1986. benefit large problems. deficit, which is alanning not so much numbers of non poor Ame ric ans. " Households with annual incomes of THE BUDGET SUMMIT as a percentage of GNP but because of its adverse impact on interest rates? more than $24.000 in 1984." Peterson o a degree, the above parameters Probably not. Unfortunately, the budget and Howe write. "received two out of T are at the heart of the ongoing talks arc missing an opportunity to high. every three civil service reti rement dol­ "budget summit" between the Bush ad­ light the real problem: the rate of growth lars and fiv e out of every six military ministration and congressional leaders. in federal entitlement spending. ret irement dollars." There might even be some light at the Don' t be misled. Refonning entitle· end of the economic tunnel. ENTITLEMENT SPENDING ment programs is not a secret Social Darwinian scheme. and. in fact. serious The first glimpse of hope occurred this ut simply, such mandaled benefits changes could release funds 10 assist the spring when Democratic Represetative as Social Security. Medicare. P needy. Again, let us quote Peterson and Dan Rostenkowski, chainnan of the federal civ il service. m il itary and Howe: "With on ly an addition S4 bil · House Ways and Means Commillee, put veterans benefits and un empl oyment lion, properly targeted, we could ra ise fort h a plan which incl udes an all three compe nsat ion require no income every e lderly household Ihat par· opti ons: entit lements, defense and qual ificat ion. By design. they arc part of ti cipates in the Supplemental Security taxes. A second glimmer was witnessed our social insurance system and should Income program over the official pover­ on Sunday. May 6.the day George Bush remain so. But a strong case can be ty level." met pri vately with Democratic and made thai some refonns are needed. So what c hanges are desi rable? Republican congressional leaders to Consider the Social Security program. Among those we would put on the table pledge that "no preconditions" would In "On Borrowed T ime: How the are: reduci ng the cost-of-living adjust­ be placed on a 1991 budget summ it. Growth In Entitlement Spending ment for non poor Social Sec urity

8 Ripon Fortlm. lIllie /990 beneficiaries: counting all Social the resurgent nationalism. could lead to the U.S. dollar. In tum, a predictable Security cash benefi ts above the ac­ fatal troubles for Mikhail Gorbachev. dollar would lead to lower interest rales. tuarial value of each worker's contribu­ who still represents the best hope for Thm fact is significant si nce the interest ti ons as taxable income; clllting the re­ progress. on the nation.. 1 debt is the fas test-grow­ placement rates in the initial benefit for­ ing pan of the federal budget. mula for upper income beneficiaries; Outside of eliminating the graduall y rai sing the Social Sec uri ty TAX POLICY re tirement age: indexing civil service tax bubble, personal or ach of these policy initiatives and military re tirement syste ms' corporate income (axes E should be seen as an alternative (0 COLAs to 60 percem of the Consumer should not be raised. The tax increases, which strong pol iti cal Price Index: movi ng from age 55 to age leadership could avoid. But th e 60 the date at which civ il se rvice negative impact on wealth likelihood of avoiding new taxes is cer­ workers can retire wilh fu ll benefit s; creation must be tainl y minimal. bringing COLAs for federal pen­ considered. So the final aspect of the budget sioneers imo line with private pension problem relates to taxes. Our answers increases; and lengtheni ng the years of here are no better than most. The alter­ service military people must engage in The c1amorers for deep defen se cuts, natives are in creasing alcohol and to rece ive reduced and full benefits. which means $ 15 billion a year for the cigarette taxes; implememing an oil im ­ These changes arc not necessarily next 10 years, must be patient . It's not port fee or pl .. c ing a new tax on new; some were even proposed in 1982 wrong to push for a fi ve percent real gasol ine; deleting the "tax bu bble" by Ihe 500-member Bipartisan Budget decline this year. There should be at which allows high income wageeamers Appeal group headed by Peterson, a least that much in wasteful spend ing. to pay a 28 percent tax rate on income fanner commerce secretary. Along with But to consider a $15 bil lion decrease an over a certain level instead of the lOp 33 Dlher proposals. they are we ll known on annual occurrence for the next decade is percent rate; and implementing a value­ Capitol Hill and the White House. They a bit hard to support. added tax on general sales. arc even g iv e n private ackno w­ First. the Cold War lasted 40 years: it's Each measure is preferable to increas­ ledgeme nt. But disma ll y, suc h onl y logical that it will take more than .. ing personal or corporate taxes and proposals receive scam political sup­ year to determine the new international could be implemented in a manner that port. Too many "leaders" are scared order. Second, even if the new .. lign­ offsets regressive characteri stics. Out­ away by the perceived fallout. ment tu rns out favorably . how will we side of eliminating the tax bubble, per­ absorb the hum .. n cost? Speci ficall y, DEFENSE AND sonal or corporate income taxes should what happens to those large numbers of not be raised. The negative impact on MONETARY REFORMS laid-off conventional forces? Where do wealth creation must be considered. those soldiers go? Who retrains them ? he defense budget, of course, rep­ After all. capi tal development is essen­ And will Congress be more will ing to tial to producing jobs. T resents another source of savings. make tough decisions about base clos­ Perhaps Congress and the administra­ More is at stake in the budget summit, ings than they have been with, say. en­ however, than the federal defici t. If that tion will be more forthcoming in reshap­ titlement programs? ing thi s aspect of the federal budget. figure can be reduced to the pre-Ronald Our aim is that if the eastern bloc 's Reagan range of $30-$40 bil lion per The current wisdom in Washington is renewal is successful, defense respon­ that the U.S. lIlust radic .. J1 y sc .. le down year, victory should be declared. At sibilities must be sh.. red more equit .. bly such .. poi nt, the federal deficit as a per­ th e $300 bil lion .. year Pemagon budget. among western .. lI ies. The Free World A coalition of individuals as diverse as centageofGNP wo uld be negligible. In­ Fund proposed in these pages la st terest rates would drop in response to former CIA DireclOr Will iam Colby December is a recognition of the inter­ and ami-Vietnam War activist William decreased borrowi ng. Some debt could related needs of the growing multipolar even be repaid. Slone Coffin is now lobbyi ng fo r a SI50 world. Sooner than later, such multi ­ bi llion a yeardefense budget by the year The overriding issue of the ongoing lateral approaches will lead to security budget negotiations is more serious: 2000. savings. Perh aps that is possible. We certainl y does our pol itical system work? Put One economic area in which intema­ .. side the cat-und-mouse question of favor reorieming our defense str:llegics. tional cooperation could have a posit ive But is it wise 10 systematically reduce wheth er President Bush o r Senate economic impact is the stabilization of Majority Leader George Mitchell fi rst the defense budget wi thout first defin ­ exchange rales. We do not need to ing broader goals or know ing more budges on ta xes, That nonsense is a recreate the Bretton Woods system, medi .. /political consultant game. The about the eastern bloc's outcome? which rel ied upon gold as the ultimate President Bush's cautious approach to real issue is, can our poli tical leaders cu rrency arbiter. But coordinating allied make serious decisions? Is it possible to reducing Pentagon spending may not be monetary po licies could have favorable sexy, but it at least acknowledges the say no in a democra cy? Like you, we benefit. wait and see. • obvious: greater change is needed in For instance, pegging exchange rates Eastem Europe and the Soviet Union to a basket of goods, which James A. before U.S. defense priorities can be Baker suggested during hi s tenu re as seriously reshaped. In fact, the bleak treasury secretary, would help stabilize Russian economic situation, as we ll as

Ripon Forum, illne 1990 9 PolandAssessed: Beyond the Iron Curtain On the positive side, wages in five key suading Washington skeptics aboullhe By Padraic Sweeney Polish economic sectors increased by new govemment·s earnestness. only 1.3% from December 1989 to The plan is quite direct about Poland's s all observers of the rapidly­ January 1990. When you factor in inna­ need to reestablish a markel economy. c ha nging Eas te rn European tion, this c hange amounts to a 40% The plan·s three major components in­ politi cal c limate know. A decline in real wages in five key areas clude: monetary and price stabili7..ation. Poland 's new Solidarity-Jed govern ­ of the economy. slructur:ll adjustment. and foreign ment fa ced a rapidly deteoriating economic assistance and external debt economic situat ion when it assumed of­ reduction. As Ba1cerowicz makes clear, Ilee in September 1989. The most the three aims must be pursued simul­ alarming politic;1I as pect of the The/all in real wages and taneously. economic problem was inflation. Ihe beginnings 0/ The shon-tenn steps have already In the first six months of 1989. for in­ unemployment reveal the moslly been laken and are designed to stance. real wages rose by nearly 20% SlOp innation and thus stabilize the while real consumer expenditures in­ seriousness of the troubles economy. These c hanges include a creased by 17%. A new government. faCing an economy Ihal sharp reduction in the government especially one allcmpling to undo years budget defici t. primarily through cut· of Communist policy. could hardly has been ruinously ting subs idies and privatizing state IOlerale such threa tening numbers. mismanagedfor40 years. enterprises: establishing a unifonn or The si lU ation w3saclUally worse since single eltchange rale: s ignificantly the outgoing Communist government Since holding down wages has been a devaluing the zloty and establishing a abandoned all food price comrols in key objective of the govemment·s anti ­ convertible currency: and restricting August. According to one wes tern es­ innation plan, the decline represent s domestic credit creation. timme. this move resulted in price rises some success. Yet the fall in real wages Interest rates are also being allowed 10 of 50-300%. By December, the Polish and the beginnings of unemployment find market levels. while wage growth Cenlral Statistical Office (GUS) reveal the seriousness of the troubles is being held below the rate of innation. reponed that prices of consume r gO

10 Ripon Fomm, Julie /990 stock companies wi th ownership vested conditions wi th commercial credilOrs is of the deep conviction that [the manner in ;) st;)te body. Special " purchase also being pursued. of privatization I is a mailer of the rights" are to be reserved for workers greatest improtance." and managers. PRELIMINARY RESULTS Several pol itical factors stand in the lthough these refonns arejust now way of privati7.IJtion. One issue is the An intended consequence being pursued or are in an incuba­ power of the agency which assumes A ownership of Slate enterprises. Another of a more demanding tion period. it's not too early to assess their status. A preliminary judgment problem is the financing of stock pur­ Polish business climate is W:1S the purpose of my fou r-month trip chases by workers. Where will they get to transfer capital from this spring to Poland as a Mark O. Hat­ the money? After ,Ill. many work ers field Scholar. lack the means to buy stock. One nega­ heavy industry 10 service­ In general. the govennenfs drastic tive consequence may be thai the old oriellIed or light industry monetarist policies have succeeded in guard wi ll acqui re ownership by default. operations. bring inflation under control. Prices jumped in March. which coincided with A third issue styming privatization are bonus payments by many companies, the conditions by wh ich Poland will Operatin g conditions for state-run Yet overall. there has been no return to allow foreign ownership of its assets. fimlS are likewise being toughened. the destabilizing hyperinflation of late Much of the nat ion fears Gennan con­ Specifically. the "soft budget con­ 1989. trol of ilS country. which is a not surpris­ stmint:' which retards efficiency by A unifonn exchange rate has been es­ ing result of World War II. covering losses with handouts from the tablished. and by the end of 1989 the Slate budget. is being cunailed. And zloty was significantly devalued. The In general. th e creation of a new bankruptcy code is zloty-dollar exchange rate was also sta­ seen as a means to reorganize or liqui­ bilized by late January. As BaJcerowicz govermenl's drastic date state-run operations. points OUI. thc= sc= reforms occurred monetarist policies have An intended consequence of a more without the use of the $1 billio n succeeded ill bring demanding Polish business climate is to stabi lization fund. Imnsfer capital from heavy industry to Subsidies hllve been cut on a wide inflation under c0111rol. service-oriented or light industry opera­ range of consumer goods and are now tions. This shift will require increased being reduced on such services as public labor mobility. To put it bluntly. some transponation and telecommunicati ons. A founh problem is that large state industries must be allowed to fail. (To drive horne th is point. my urban enterprises inherited from the Com­ Of course. the labor shift demands the mass transit fares dOl/hIed in earl y munist regime are. to no one's surprise. cremionofa more developed social wel­ March. ) not cooperating in thei r demise. Some fare system. Among the most urgent Similarly. change!> in the labor market large state finns reportedly arc not sell­ lasks facing the ·'new Poland·· is the as­ are occurring. The number of un­ ing their products at all rather than ac­ semblingofan unemployment compen­ employc=d workers reached 35 1.1 58 by ceptin g lowe r prices. As a resu lt . sa tion sys tem, the providing o f early May. This rather perverse fi gure warehouses arc full of certain goods severance pay and the development of actually indicates a positive which are not finding their way to worker retraining. To encourage la bor phenomenon: the development or a market. On top of this. the govCOlrllent mobility. the rental housing market more efficient labor market. In fact. Bal ­ has lost tax revenues from sales that did must also be expanded. cerowicz claims that the unemployment not take place. To be sure. Poland cannot meet many growth reflects a ··movement from a The m os l s u sceptible areas to of these needs without outside assis­ se ll ers· market to a buyers· market." In demonopolizalion are: cons umer tance. The Polish government has thus the past. sellers dictated conditions to goods. food and agriculture products been aggressively seeking outside capi­ buyers. But raising prices. ti ghtening and light industries. Marek Dabrowski. tal. To some degree. it has been success­ credit and eliminating subsidies ,ITe state secretary in the Mini stry of ful. forcing Polish producers into a new Finance. clai ms that finns in these sec­ A $700 million standby agreement relationship with their customers. tors "most rapidly adapted themselves with the International Monetary Fund No doubt. the Balcerowicz plan has to the new situation of consumption.·· has already been approved. So. too. has nOl mel with success on all fronts. These areas must be contrasted with a structural adjustment loan been Privatizating industry has been par­ heavy industry. where massive capital granted by the World Bank, wh ile a $ 1 ticularly troublesome. On February 6. outlays and a long in vestment lead tillle bill ion stabitization loan has been put the Council of Mini sters (the Polish are required. The government 's director together by western governments in Cabinet) took up forthe second time the of Anti-Monopoly Operations. Ryzsnrd order to tranSfOrnlthe zloty. government 's legislative package on heyno. observes that compctitivcly­ The governmelll has also requested a privatization. The Warsa w dail y priced foreign impons could help bring 36 month relief from debt-service pay­ newspaper. Rzeczpospolita. reponed down the heavy industry monopolies. ments and is rescheduling all illlerest the next day that continuing delibera­ According to b cy no. the Polis h and principal on its debt to western tions ··were not a question of sluggiSh­ automaker FSO "would go bankrupt in governments. Improved debt-service ness or laziness of the government. but the course of a few months if customs

RipOll Formll. JUlie 1990 /I duties were reduced on automobiles." cal order. The value of these programs The Fund is also allowed to assist (Unfortunately. Poland's precarious exceeds S800 million and does not in­ pri vate. but not public joint U.S.- Polish balance-of-payment s situat ion makes clude va ri ous private assistance ve ntures. This could havea positive im ­ th is an unlikely proposition .) programs. pact upon small business development . The other major problem area is Financial aid is one of the most impor­ Money will be made avai lable as a strict ag ricullure. The ne t resull ofhypcrinfla­ tant elements the American people ca n investment and wi ll be on market tenns tion. and government measures to com­ provide the Polish economy. So far. and "in accordance with sound business bat it , is that fanners are bearing the fu ll U.S. public aid has been divided into a practices. " brunt of in c rea~ed COStS for production $200 million grant for the international Another major category of U.S. nid is inputs. Yet they also are being denied stabilization fund to back the zloty; agriculture-related. According to the higher prices for production OUtpu ts. diplomat ic support for Poland among U.S. Embassy in Warsaw, U.S. agricul ­ such international organizations as the tural assistance programs for fisca l year As the Polish ecol/omy IMF and the World Ban k; and a S200 1990 totalled nearly 5120 million by million "bridging" loan from the U.S. mid -March. (Fun her assistance mn y stabilizes, U.S. policies Treasury to help Poland meet its inter­ also be made available this year.) This will have to direct nati onal financial Obligations before the nid has been primari ly in the fonn of IMF stand-by agreement took effect. commodities for animal and hu man th emselves toward In addit ion to these direct financial as­ consumption. promoting long-term sistance programs. a number of new or Prior to the change of government in economic restructurill g. expanded U.S. programs are being Poland . U.S. agricult ure aid had been a directed at Poland . Their aim is to modest 8.000 tons of yearl y COnt­ promote investment and tmde. especial ­ modit ies. In August 1989. followi ng Ironicall y. the major beneficiaries of ly wi th the Un ited States. These President Bush's visit. 550 million in higher food prices have IUmed out to be programs include credit and export commodities wa s authorized for state-owned and cooperative monopo­ guarantees administered by the U.S. Ex­ delivery. A further 550 mill ion was lies which control purc hasing, process­ port+lmport Bank and the Overseas authorized in September and 520 mil­ ing and distribution. These monopolies Pri vate Investment Corporation: in ­ lion in December. huve held down producer prices whi le creased trade promoti on by the Foreign This agricul tural aid has been seen by enjoyi ng soaring consumer prices. Commercial Service of the Commerce Am erican offic ials as pa rt of the Fann incomes have increased ve ry lit ­ Departm ent: and the $240 million stabili zation process. not for long-tcnn tle . however. in the face of higher prices Po lish-American En terprise Fund restructuring. As one U.S. official in for fuel. equipment and agricultural authorized by Congress lasl year. Poland said. "Food aid was to get them chemicals. Consider that interest rates A highl y-innovative feature of the through the winter:' With most of the on refinanced credit issued by the U.S. aid package is the Polish­ U.S. commodities deli vered or on their Central Bank rose to 36% for the month American Ente rprise Fund. which way by mid-March. the shape of U.S. of January alone (by Ma rc h. the month­ Presi dent Bush proposed before the agricultural assistance should begi n to ly rate was down to 10%). Likewise. Poli sh Sejm o n July 10. 1989. In shift to technical and extension assis­ energy prices have quadrupled. while November 1989, Congress authorized tance. fenilizer and machinery subsidies have the appropriation of$240 million over a Other aid programs are also beginni ng been remo ved. An alanning develop­ period of three years. to operate in Poland. includi ng the ment is lhat some fanners are reported­ American officials stress that the Peace Corps and the Agency for Inter­ ly responding to low producer prices by Enterprise Fund is int ended to promote nat ional Development. Likewise. Presi­ se lling off their breed ing stock. This domestic and foreign in vestment in d ent Bush recent ly proposed a phenomenon could take years to POland, not to pro mote trade with the "Democracy Corps" to provi de pri vate­ recover from . panicularl y wit h regard to United Slates. As one member of the sector expcnise for Poland and other cattle. U.S. Embassy in Warsaw told me. "The Eastern European nations. Joint private­ The agricultural problem is offset goal o f the Enterprise Fund is in­ public worker retraining initiatives are somewhat by a boom in Polish fann ex­ di geno us capita l fo rmation and also underway. as are expanded cultural port s. especially meat and buller. de velopment." and educational exchange programs. Fanners al so began to undernline state The Enterprise Fund is a private or­ monopolies by selling di rectl y to Poli sh ganization authorized to rece ive ooth OBSERVATIONS ON U.S. consumers from their own trucks, which U.S. government fund s and private con­ ASSISTANCE are parked ubiquitously on the streets of tributions. It is also entitled to cooperate every Polish city and town. wi th private investors and lending in­ o far. U.S. economic assistnnce to stitutions in both countries to support sPoland has been delivered in a time­ U.S. ASSISTANCE TO profit-makin g e nd eavors. Profits ly and effecti ve ly manner. This is espe· POLAND generated by the Fund itself are to be ciall y true with respect to ac ti vities reinvested in new projects. Although aimed at short-tenn stabilization, in par­ y late December 1989. a di verse some direct lending by the Fund is en­ ticular financial nssistance. U.S. loans program of U.S. economic assis­ and grants. which total $400 million. as B visaged, it will serve primaril y as a tance emerged in response to Poland 's "financial wholesaler." we ll as diplomatic support with the IMF r.lpidly-changing economic and po li ti- and other insti tutions. have played a

/2 Ripon Forum. JUlie 1990 leading role in helping the Polish interests and U.S . foreign policy toward economy weather its inflationary crisis. Poland. Congress, in fact. played a very It is more difficult to assess the impor­ useful role in expediting th e U. S. Mark Your Calendar Today tantance of U.S. agri cultural aid. The response to Poland. II should not be for­ For The picture in this sector is somewhat con­ gOllen. however. th:1I there are sound fu sed. In general. Poland is capable of strategic reasons for ass isti ng Poland. In PRO-C HOICE REPU8L1CAN feeding itself and has even witnessed a Europe undergoing rapid, sometimes NATIONAL LEADERSHIP growth in agri cult ural expons since the di zzying change. a secure, prosperous Balcerowicz Plan took effect. Com­ Poland can only promote stability in SEMINAR bined with the light winter of 1989- Central Europe. especiall y while Ger­ 1990, these factors make it likely that many and the Sov iet Union themselves Friday July 27 Till Sunday U.S. agricullural assistance will be of undergo radical change . Jul y 29 less imponance in the short run than Of co urse. direc tin g assistance U.S. finan cial aid. programs to Poland is complicated by Mayflower Hotel, As the Polish economy stabilizes. U.S. the fa ct thaI the Poli sh economy is a Washington D.C. policies will have to direct themselves moving target. changing at a rapid pace . toward promoting long- tenn economic Al so. the immense amount of interest Fo r more info rm ation call restructuring. U.S. offi cials. at least in shown by visiting U.S. business, labor. Warsaw. seem aware of thi s need. ldeal­ academic and government leaders has the National Republican Iy. according to one offi cial there. this placed a real burden on Ameri can Em­ Coalilion For C hoice, 202- is whe re the Polish -Am e rican bassy officials in Poland. 543-0676 or write:NRCC, Enterprise Fund coul d play a key role. But the principles which shou ld guide 1444 Eye St NW Box 27794, The promotion of pri vate alternati ves to fore ign poli cymakers are helping Washington DC 20038 fonner state monopolies in such in­ Poland become self-sufficient. promot­ dustries as food -process ing should be ing a politically stable Central Europe. one sphere for Fund activities. not expecti ng instant success, and Not surpri singly, there has been a developing an overall policy objecti ve relationship between domesti c political towards Poland. •

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14 Ripon FOI'IIIl/, ilille 1990 Bobbie Kilberg: Making the White HouseWork No doubt. a political consequence ex­ by William P. McKenzie ists to this process. As more groups are exposed to the While House's view on or all che pieces you've read a particular issue, the more likely sup­ about Ihe Bush family and its port for a measure can be developed. normalcy. the same description F (The White House scheduled 76 meet­ can be applied to many. if not most ings on the Clean Air Act :llone.) members of the curren! White House Although Kilberg's office cannot slaff. Few people within the Bush inner lo~by. .can -- and does -- follow up circle possess Ihe ideological exclusive­ !' With vlSl lors to infoml them of the ness of the early Reagan learn or the president's decisions. She also reminds power-hungry tendencies of the Nixon policymakers of a group's views during siaff. to cite the eccentricities of two policy formu lation. recent adminiSlnltions. Like the president. the public liaison Bobbie K ilberg The lone comes from the top. of office uses the White House as a plat­ course. and George Bush has con ­ fo.rm. "!,he afternoon th is visitor spoke Democratic g ubernatorial candidate: cenlrated on making the White House With KLlberg. she had just returned from "Most politic ians aspire to be an accessible place. He recently told the ~ ~rogram honoringdisadvanl:lged fam­ petunias ... in the public garden. Then New York Times Magazine: "This of­ Illes. The president conducted the there is John Silber. the candidate as fice inl imidales peoplc ... .rve been "Achievemen t Against The Odds" thistle. If you are look ing for kinder and through it on Ihe olher side. walking ceremony in the Rose Garden. and Kil ­ gentler. look elsewhere." through Ihal door. And it's differenl." berg arranges simil:lr events in other George Bush has been around politics The person responsible for bringing presligious White House settings. long enough to know that the system many people through this president's ~i s e~pha sis on fanfare may imply works best. however. when personal door, and for whom the "normal" an mordmate amount of attention on re!ationshi ps are maintained. Being a charge fils well. is Bobbi Kilberg. NO! political theatrics. To the contrary. and t hls~1e may be more entennining. but by surprisingly. Kilberg, now deputy assis­ this point is imponant to understand t a!kll1~ to. a~d establishing relationships lant to the president for public liaison, about the Bush White House. with mdlvlduals from various back­ once served as an academic vice presi­ An almost city council-like feel exists grounds George Bush is bener able to dent at a small woman's college. Like in this administration, which is far dif­ make government work. Barbara Bush, she possesses a frank, un­ ferent from the well -orc hestrated Kilberg and her husband have known flappable nature. Reagan White House. Capturing "mo­ George Bush since the two Kilbcrgs Kilberg's Office of Public Liaison is ments" for the eveni ng news is nm the served as White House Fel lows in 1970. in charge of maintaining relationships Bush ndministration's aim. Bush later became Bobbie Kilberg's between the president and hundreds of George Bush and his aides seem intent mentor. Consequently. the moderate interest groups. Thejob. which was held on demythologizing the While House Republican and long-time women's by Elizabeth Dole at one point during by establishing a business-like atmos­ rightsactivisl has stood by George Bush the Re:lgan administration. entails ar­ phere. Not only does Kilberg constant­ even when it was not politically popular mnging meetings for the president and ly bring individuals and groups in and among Illany women. :White House advisors wi th organized out of the White House. but the presi­ Kilberg herself lalks like a candidate. mterests. dent is notorious for using the phone to which she wns in 1987 when she lost a According to Kilberg, a Yale Law check sources and chat up leaders. Virginia slate senate contest by a slim School graduate , the delegations are not This in fonnal style drives some people margin. The mother of five has given perfunctory trealment e ithe r. crazy. of course. George Will makes a promised the president she wi ll not run George Bush. a long-time Washingtoll living these days by contrasting George again in 1991 . but Kilberg does not ru le player. "does IIOt view interest groups Bush .10 the intellectually aggressive. out another campaign beyond that dale. pejoratively." Rather, the sessions are to somellmes haughty leaders the colum­ .In .t ~e meantime. lenrning the pr

Ripon F 01'11111. Jllne 1990 15 A Republican House of Representatives? Maybe. power becomes an extension of the Maybe, or alleast a working majorit y. 8y David A. Fuscus speaker through the Democr.ltic leader· The nex. t two elections, this year and ship, which uses it to further Ihe agenda in 1992, when taken together. represent ince 1954, Republicans have lan­ and ideals of thei r party. The mi nority the best chance in decades for the GOP gui shed in the House of has no legislative say in what happens. to establish a working majori ty and lay SReprescntalives. pcfl>Clually in although poli tical situat ions often give a strong foundat ion for control . A series Ihe mino rit ), and forever bei ng them some leverage and bl\fga ining of fortu nate events could spell victory dominated by the Democrats. It's a power. for the pany, even if the present incum · bleak story and one that has frustra ted bent re-election rate continues. generations of Republican lawmakers: This year is important for several yet there may be some lighl shining rea sons. the foremost being the re­ through thc twi light -- if only a few. The historical slIapsllo! distribution of congressional sealS for brieny mys. shining we have to predicr GOP the 1992 elections, which wi ll be Thirty-five years is a long lime to fortI/lies thisfall is the decided by state officials elected this spend playing political second fiddle. year. For example. in California. as in especially considering thc cnonnous midterm election during most states, the govemor plays a key egos and ambitions of many politicians. the Kennedy role in the reapponionment process be­ Yet this is exactl y what the Republican cause of the ability to vela legislation. Pany has done in the House since 1955. administration in 1962. Republicans stand an excellent chance serving as a minority party few with of winning the governor's mansion wi th powers and limited influence. Of the Another significant way that the Pete Wilson, a populartwo-Ieml senator 176 Republican men and women now in De mocrats dominate the House is who has won some bruising stale-wide offi ce. none has ever served with a through the commillee system. All battles and control s a seasoned grass­ speaker from thei r own party. The two legislation must ttllvel through one or roots campaign network and fundrais­ most senior members. Minorit y Leader more subcomminees and subsequently ing base. Additionally, he has not been Bo b Mic hel (R· IL) and William S. the parent comminee. In much the same plagued with a primary bailie like hi s Broomfield (R· M!), were bolh elected way that the speaker controls the House two possible Democratic opponents. al ­ in 1957, two years aftcr thc last brief agend:l, chairmen control thcir commit­ lowi ng him to marshal funds and resour­ tenure of Republican control. tees. They are enonnously powerful in­ ces for the November contest. This seemingly pennanent minority dividuals who have fina l say over the is­ California will be gaining between stalus has been especially frustrati ng sues :lnd bills their bodies will address. five mld seven congressional sealS. so during the las t 20 years because And like the speaker, every subcommit­ influence over the reapportionment Republicans have dominated the White tee and commi ttee chaimlan is a meln­ process is essential in an increasingly House and won national election after ber of the majority. :I Democrat. As one Republican stale. With Wi lson sworn in national election. If the party of Lincoln Republicancongressln:ln recently put it. as governor. the GOP will ensure itse lf ever hopes to full y further its agenda. it "We can't sit in the chairman seat even a strong voice in the process. must establish control, or at least work· ifallthe Democrats have to leave for the According to the U.S. Bureau of the ing control of the Congress. restroom." Census, population has been draining Majorit y status is everything in the If the RepUbl ican Party is to ever have away from Ihe traditional Democratic House: it is the lens through which al· more than token innuence in the House, base in the Rust Be h Siales and transfer­ most all power is focused and the party the imperial reign of the Democrats ing to the Republican Sun Belt: as many wilh the most seats can dominate and set must come to an end; yet their strength as 20 scats could transfe r, leaving a sig­ Ihe entire House agenda. For example. is impressive. Presently, the Democrats nificant opening for the Republican according to the House ru les. the power hold 257 seats to 176 Republican ones: party. to decide which bills come to the noor 42 seats would have to change hands to Another development that should for a vote li es solely with the speaker of achieve a new majority, a daunting benefit the Republican Party in 1992 be· the House: he alone can decide what is· prospeCI when the re-election rate for came law in 1989 as part of bi ll over­ sues the insti tution will :lddress and can incumbents is hovering around 97%, hauling congressional ethics. The new stall or advance any bill. In ptllctice, this With such gloomy numbers, 11l;IIl Y in law wi ll eliminate a grandfather clause the GOP are wondering, "Will we ever that presently allows members elected DOI'iel A . "'/IS('/I S is (I lIIe"'oer of file achieve a majorit y'!" before 1980 to use their campaign wllr- Ripon Forum edilorial board.

!6 Ripon Forum. 1/111(.' 1990 chest for personal purposes upon retire­ House, President Bush should still be Republican gains in the House. wi th the ment. The present system would allow popular wi th the majority of Ameri cans, rig ht mi x of political luck. members like Dan Rostenkowski (0- thus adding to the chance of hold ing demographics and skill , the Republican [L). chainnan of the powerful Way and down losses or perhaps gaining one or Pany could well take over the House of Means Committee. to sli p over $1 mil­ two seats. The stage would then be set Representatives within the next few lion into hi s personal checki ng account. for a grassroots political clash of his­ years. It would be a welcome end to the Other senior members of the House like toric proportions between the two par­ imperial reign of the Democrats and Representative Steve Solarz (D-NY) ties with the stakes set at fut ure control would inject some much needed vitality have similar balances. of the House of Representatives. into Congress. • In 1992. members will no longer be able to keep their campaign fu nds with Between reapportion­ an exception for those who retire before election. Many in professional politics ment, normal retirements Ripon Policy Calendar expect up to two dozen members to take and elimination of the This summer the Society is the money and run. many of them Democrats from safe seats. grandfather clause, literal­ sponsoring eight breakfast Between reapportionment, normal ly dozens of seats will be meeting on subjects of grow· retirements a nd elimination of the without incumbents, ing importance: health care grandfather clause, literally dozens of presenting fresh and international trade. sealS wi ll be without incumbents, Below are listings of presenting fresh opportuni ties for the opportunities for the Republican Party. In fact, one infonned speakers and subjects: source at the Republican National Com­ Republican Party. mittee predicts that there may be be­ May 8 - Deborah Steelman, tween 70 and 80 open seats for the 1992 The second fac tor necessary for chair, Advisory Council on election. Republicans to do well in 1992 is for Social Security, on long-tenn Can the Republicans capitali ze on this them to continue their advantage in health care. lack of entrenched incumbents? If they fundraising. The GOP has traditionall y May 15 - Congressman hope to, three events will have to take outraised the Democrats by wide mar­ Thomas Tauke on long-tenn place. all of them equally important. gins, but to date has not been able to health care and the Pe pper First, President Bu sh wi ll have to translate th is fi nancial advantage into Commission. mai ntain hi s popul arity w ith the victory polls. With so many seats open­ May 22 - Manin Gerry, as· American people, which, according to a ing up in '92. extra money and national sistant secretary for planning recent Gallup Organization poll , stood party support may well provide the win­ & evaluation, Department of at a 73% approval rating. At a similar ning edge in close races. Health & Human Services, on point in Ronald Reagan's first tenn, his Finall y, the Republicans have to do health care & the uninsured. rating was only 43%. well in the 1990 state races. especiall y June 5 - Congressman Wil- Bush needs to maintain his popular ap­ in key states like Florida. Califomia and liam Gradison on mandated peal both to win a strong re-election in Texas. A strong showing in guber­ health care. '92, hopefull y with coattails for GOP natorial and state legislative races will congressional candidates, but to also allow Republicans a large voice in ap­ keep down midtenn losses this Novem­ portioning seats in Republican areas. * * * * ber. Traditionall y, the party of the in­ Wh ile no one really expects the June 19 - Congressman BiU cum bent president has lost seats in mid­ Republican Party to establish a majority Frenzel on trade developments tenn elections: in practice, it's hap­ in 1992, the most likely scenario is the in the 100th Congress. pened in every midtenn election this establishment of a worki ng majorit y J une 26 . Joshua Bolten. century with the except ion of 1934. s imilar to what the Republicans general counsel, Office of the Ronald Reagan lost 26 seats in 1982 and achieved in the early 1980s. As a result U.S. Trade Representative, on even President Ei senhower lost 18 seats of the Reagan landslide in 1980. the the Uruguay round of the in 1954 at the height of his popularity. GOP picked up 32 seats in the House. GAIT negotiations. The best historical snapsnot we have thus bringi ng theirtOial to 189. This was July 11 - Sidney Linn Wil­ to predict GOP fortunes this fall is the enough to a ttract con se r vati ve liams. deputy U.S. trade repre­ midtenn election during the Ke nnedy Democrats from the South and pass sentative, on the Pacific Rim administration in 1962. Like Bush wi th many of Reagan's con servative and international trade. Panama. Kennedy was riding a wave of policies. A simil ar scenario could Jul y 19 - Ambassador popular opinion from the Cuban Missile emerge in 1992 and set the stage for Andreas van Agi. delegation crisis and the economy was experience­ Republican control later in the decade. of the Commission of th e ing similar growth. Kennedy lost only Of course. Election Day is still many European Communities. on four seats. a victory in relative tenns. months away and we have 2 1/2 years the prospects for European in­ If the economy holds and there are no until the important election of 1992. But tergration. major mistakes made by the White the earl y signs point fav orably to

Ripon Forum. JUlie 1990 17 Drugs 'R Us two or more evenings a month to !:Ilk even-handed justice. their rigidity may Dy Mariann Kurtz wi th high school stude nts about the quell any lasl hope for creati vit y and in· legal and emotional realities of using. spiration from the bench. meri ca has declared a war on dealing and carryi ng drugs. Take the case of a young medical stu­ dru gs. at least [hal is what the "Young peopl e arc impatie nl." dent from Ihe Washington. D.C. area policymakcrs [ell us. Yes, the A Chestnut says. "They want everyth ing who wa s OIrrested for carrying 750 mouthpieces in Washington wearing now and they see drugs OI S a way to get grams of crack cocaine. He received a blue suits and talki ng vi ll speaker phone il. That is why another person shows up sentence of 17 years in pri son wi thout from comfortable offices lei I us of death to deal drugs fo r every person we take parole. Whi le not suggesting that drug penalties fordrugdcalcrs and hungry in ­ off the street. It' s easy to d i .~ lik c traffick­ cuurie rs should receive preferential sect bombing raids lIgainsl our drug­ ers and dealers. and we should target Ireatment. common sense and :I bit of producing nei ghbors. them. But we have to sto p blaming all sim ple mat h reveals the impact of crea­ Yel America's war on drugs is little our troubles on them becOluse we can't tive bureaucracy. morelhan:l nice lenn for the ra ging civil Stop them." Consider this: Reduce the medicOlI war that is fougln daily in our schools. According to Chestnut. th e users are student 's sentence to 10 years. Is seven on the job, on OUT streets, and in our the ones who should get the mostllllen­ additional ye;lrs in prison for this man homes. tion. but usuOllly don' \. In too many with no previous criminal record really OUT nation 's drug problem is not COlseS, Chestnut said users get lillie or no going to be ne fit society? Use the rooted in some other country's poppy penalties. In fac l, under US Code 3607. remaining seven years of time and space fie lds. Instead. we can painllo a vicious a first time offende r c:lught for ~ impl e for 1.246 two-day sentences for firs t­ cycle of American tasles and habits thai possession is eligi ble for one year of time offenders charged with possession demand a product Ihal sustains the probalion without entering a judgment or perhaps even drunk driving. At no Ir.ldc and reaps its benefits. and federal of conviction. In simple lemlS, the code added cost. except maybe paperwork. codes which fai l to dissuade our most allows I1rst offende rs to walk away 1,247 offenders would face tough con­ impressionable members, the first of­ wi thout a criminal record. jail time. sequences for thei r acti ons. fe nders. While politicians spout and community service re4uirements and A real example of creative interven­ celebritie s plead. another American payment of a fin e. No wonder the laws tion comes from an organization called grows. sells. carries or uses drugs. serve as li llie deterre nt when a parking Straight. This group currentl y run ... the "As longs as there is money to be ticket would inflici more punishment largest drug treatment program in the made, people. especiall y young people, than that brandi shed in thi s code. country fo r adolescents and involves an willtuke an ' I'm tOO smart to be caught' "We need to take use more seriously:' entire fam ily in the trelllment of one alti tude and deal drugs," s:lys Robert C. said Chestnut. "There is no good reason member's dru g problem. At an average Chestnut. assislant U.S . a\tomey from to use drugs. II's expensive, it's agili nst cost of less than 53 1 a day. Straight 's the Eastern District of Virgi nia. '" J:li l the law. it deSlr0Ys the body, but Ihis progr.un runs fro m II to 20 months and tcrnls are not deterrents when kids can code gives the gener.tl impression that enjoys nearl y a 50 percent success rate. make $ 1,000 a week, pay no taxes, see drug use is O.K. We nced an alt itude ad­ whi ch is meas ured in the reestablish­ lots of excitement and be their own bos­ justment. It's the casual user who still ment of drug-free li ves. ses. That s ure be a lS work ing a t has the c:lpability to make a decision not Perhaps Straight has the most promis­ McDonald 's for 53.50 an hour." to use drugs. MOIybe a misdemeanor ing approach for bauling drugs: ener­ Chestnut. who has been with the U.S. charge. a fi ne o ra weekend injail would gized invol veme nt a nd support of attorney's office for two years, spends make them th ink :' parents. sibl ings. schools and the com­ nearl y 70 percent of his time on dru£ In November 1987. il congressional munity. It also has the basic under­ cases. He and fiv e other full time attor­ commission fashioned new feder.tl sen­ standing that the conditions and cir­ neys make up the drug uni t in the tenci ng guidelines limiting Ihe di scre­ cumstances leading to drug use did not Alexandria. Virginia office. Although tio n of federal judges in imposing occur overnight and th us cannot be Chestnut and his colleagues are politi­ c riminal sentences. The guidelines, treated simply. call y sensitive to the voices from across ..... hich represent the fi rst c hOl nges in As Allorney Chestnut suggests. over­ the Potomac, they spend their days on federal sentencing practice in 200 years, all directions are needed. but pol icy has the front lines working with local identify 43 categories of crime and sel a lillie im pact on everyday lives. Sus­ police, customs agents. Drug Enforce­ minimum and maxi mum sente nce for tained local effon such as that embodied me nt agents and Ihe FBI putting pol icy each category. by Straight. personal intervention as into practice. And Chestn ut gives up The c han ges OIl so abolished parole demonstrated by Chestnut. and some from the federal system. And although c reative bureaucracy might be the com­ Marialll/ KII "': is a mem/wr of the they were designed to provide 11 more bi nation that makes a difference. • Ripon Forum ('(/if(Jr;al bO(lrd.

18 Ripon ForUIII. iwlt' 1990 The Ripon Agenda straddle the fence. striving •• nobly per· Uy Donald T. Bliss, Jr, haps -- to keep the party together, but in· viting a contest for the party's direction on issues such as civil ri ghts legislation, Editor's Note: Donlllli T. BliS!i. Jr. is abortion. nag burning. capital punish· Ihe l1C'w')'-eiected "resit/em o[,he Ripon ment. responsible de fi cit reduction. Sodery. afld liS slich Ihl' Ripon Forum reduction and redirection of defense asked him to discl/ss arcas (111(1 ways in spending. and respect for the inter-con­ which Ihe Ripon SocielY ('(11/ 11(11'(' (III ill­ necled world environment. fluence 0 11 flil' pvlilicaf debart'. We can have an impact on this debate. Some other areas in which we can make a difference include the following: av ing participated in Ripon and other moderat e Republican voter Apathy -- The American voter causes for more than 20 years. H ma y have become 100 cynical. beset by I cannot recall a time of such political the barrage of negative campaigning, uncertainlY and opportun ity. The very well·publicized abuses of public office­ Don Bliss soul of thc Republican Pany is up for holders. and the succession of presi· grabs as we help shape a Ripon agenda dents who have campaigned againsl the for the 1990s. On Ihe one hand . the old federal bureaucracy. Our hi storic sense ment and other spending controls. On labels -- e.g .. Iibcr.J.l and conservati ve. of democracy is at risk. the spend ing side. bolder reductions in or hawk and dove -- arc fast losing We need to think innovatively lIbout defense spending can be justified by relevance. cili zen particip;lIion in politics lind redefining our defense strategy and On the other hand. cerl ai n lime­ government in a wide range of context, facil itat ing the transfer of tcchnology to honored principles are increasinly sub­ including but not limited to education. the civilian sector. On the revenue side. ject toassauh -- equality of opportunity, voting ri ghts and regislr.ltion. campaign my favorite candidate would be a sub­ individual privacy. freedom of speech finance refornls, campaign standards. stantial gasoline ta x with the proceeds and lifestyle. ;tnd re liance on the ef­ and excellence and responsiveness in commiued 10 transportation infrastru c­ fi ciency of free dome).tic and imema­ public serv ice. ture improvements. The Bush tranSfX!r- ti onal markets. These principles are in 1:IIion policy spells OUi the need. but the the true tmdition of the Republican The Securi lY Net ~- Another issue that su bstantial costs cannot be simply Party -- the party of Abraham Lincoln call s for innovati ve thinking is the palmed off on the simes. and Theodore Roosevelt. nation's health care system .. con· In my view, Ripon should concemr:ue fronted with escalating COl>ts. an ex· Eastern Europe n With the apparent on three missions. We shou ld develop panding pool of the uninsured and an collapse of world communism. Ihe op­ and market innovative and pragmat ic endless drain on the fedeml budget. Ap­ portunity 10 nurt ure ties wi th the policy initialives in a fast changing in­ plyi ng Ripon principles. it ought to be developing democratic and free market ternational environment: coopt the possible to devise health care reforms econo mies of Easlern Europe arc RepUblican Party on issues of toler.lnce. that stress di versity. choice, efficient boundless. But imaginative and bold individual freedom and responsive mllnagement of health care delivery and new strategics are needed to ensure that government: and provide

Ripoll Forum.Jlllle /990 19 REVIEWS Means and Ends Robert A. Caro. "Means of Ascent: The Years of Lyndon Johnson." New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1990.

the Waron Poverty will presumably ap­ eye to the furture and his own survival, by Alfred W. Tate pear later. two years before the wa r Johnson had During these seven years, the "dark signed up as a lieutenant commander in yndon Baines Johnson was an thread" is dominant in Johnson's life. the naval reserve. When the waf came, overwrought and excessive man They begin with him stranded and he fanagled an assignment to a series of L for an overwrought and exces­ powerless in the House of Representa­ "inspection" tours of naval facilities in sive time. Despite his bei ng dead now tives and end wi th his election to the Texas and California. almost 20 years. mosl of us who were of Senate by what Life Magazine would When it became clear that President age during his reign retain a strong im­ call an "87-vote 'Landslide'" in the Roosevelt would order members of pression of this huge and hugely inter­ 1948 Texas Democratic primary. The Congress who had retained their scatS esting pe rsonality. The photograph Johnson of these years is a ruthless and while in the military bac k to taken on Air Force One of Johnson driven pragmatist, consciously reject­ Washington, Johnson became fran tic being sworn in as presidcm, the canoon ing the idealism he fe lt had brought his for an assignment that would allow him of him lifting his shin 10 expose a scar politician fat her onl y poverty and to return a combat veteran. His oppor­ in the shape of the outline of the ridicu le. He is a man. Caro says, "all but tu nity carne on an "'inspection" tour in Republic of Vietnam. or the sound ofllis totally consumed by hi s need for Australia when he rode along as an ob­ voice announcing that he would not power. server on a single bombing mi ssion seek reelection in 1968. are only three Three episodes make up this period in against a Japanese air base on the nonh­ of the many images that come \0 mind Johnson's career: a six-month tour of east coast nf New Guinea. as symbols orhis legacy. duty in the Navy during the first year of For this efron. General MacA nhur -­ Principall y because of Vietnam, Lyn­ the Second World War: the acquisition himself no slouch at seizing the main don Johnson had, in one way or another, in his wife's name of rad io station chance -- awarded Johnson the Silver an immediate impact on the lives of an KTBC in Aust in; and his 1948 cam­ Slar. This despite the fact that none of enli re generation of Americans. Th is at paign for the Senate. The first would the active panicipants in the mission least in part helps account for the provide the prestige of being a war hero, received a medal. much less one of their respon~ Roben Caro' s emerging 'muti ­ the second the fou ndations of his per­ country's highest decorations for valor. volume biography of him is eliciting. sonal fonune. and the third the platform The entire business and what Johnson " Means of Ascen!" is the second from which to reach for what Caro has made of it will seem incredible onl y to volume and covers the seven years from said was the ultimate goal from the very those who missed Grenada. the Iran­ 1941 to 1948. This period, according to beginning: the presidency. Contra affair or :my of the more recen­ Caro, marks a turning point in texamples of the peculiar mi x Ihe Johnson's life and represc nls a time LBJ in World Wa r II mili tary, politics and personal ambition when the headlong race for power that creates. characterized his life was thwarted. ccording to Caro, Johnson's stint On July 9, 1942, all congressman in Caro fin ds two "threads," one bright in World War II was the result of A the armed forces were ordered to re turn and the other dark, running through an often repeated campaign pledge he and four of the eight then on active duty Johnson's life. In the period this volume made in his unsuccessful 1941 bid for responded by resigning from Congress covers. the bright one is missing. The the Senate. "If the day ever comes when and remai ning in uniform. But Johnson Johnson of the first volume, who as a 20 my vote must be cast to send your boy was back in the House of Re presenta­ year old teacher in the "Mexican to the trenches," Johnson promised. tives within a week of Roosevelt 's School" on the wrong side of the tracks "that day Lyndon Johnson will leave hi s directive. in the south Texas town of Cotulla had Senate seat to go with him." Under the been to his students "like a blessing headline "We need courage like Ih is," The LBJ Company from a clear sky" and who as their con­ the pledge had been printed on gressman had brought electricity to the postcards and mailed to hundreds of ix months later, in January of 1943, farmers of his native Hill Country, is thousands of Texans. With Pearl Har­ SLady Bird Johnson fi led a request gone. The president who authored the bor, it became clear he would have to with the Federal Communications Voting RightsAct of 1965 and launched make good ifhe was to have any poli ti­ Commission for approval to purchase cal future after the war. radiostation KTBCin Austin. Although Not thaI service in the "trenches" was other purchasers had been trying for Alfred W Tale isa memherofl/)r Ripon a real possibility. With a characteristic three years to get the FCC approval it Forum ediTorial board.

20 Ripon Forum. lillie 1990 took Mrs, Johnson 24 days to receive, provable accusation to whi ch any is made out to be. And ifCaro's Steven~ the station was no bargain. A "sun­ response would give at least some son is too good to be true, what about downer" it could only operate duri ng credence. his Johnson? daylight hours. and the frequency it was Johnson's charge that Stevenson Caro seems to have succumbed to the assigned and the power at which it could would weaken our national defense and temptation 10 let the excesses of hi s sub­ operate made the station unable to com­ was by implication a communist sym­ ject provoke an equally excessive reac­ pete with other broadcaster in the pathizer. and hi s accusation that the tion. The light he shines on Johnson in region. fonner governor had made a "secret" this volume is so intense and so ti ghtly By 1945 the on ly th ing that remained agreement with labor to repeal the Taft­ focussed that in its glare people and the same about KTBC were its call1el­ Hartley Act were lud icrous. But in a events are Cllst in either brilliant light or lers. The power of its signal had quin­ stale with Texas' history and anli -union unredeemed darkness. In even the worst tupled. and the station was now an af­ bias, the proud and conservative of us. it is unlikely that the "dark" and filiate of CBS. By 1948 it enabled Stevenson's refusal to respond to the "bright" threads are as easily di scerned Johnson to boast of being a millionaire. first and reluc tant answer to the second and sharply divided as Caro finds them Throughout his life he wo ul d say of hurt. in Johnson. And one c annot help the LBJ Company and associated busi­ wondering what may be goi ng on oul­ nesses Ihat began with the purchase of Caro intends to view the side the spot light Car throws on Johnson KTBC: "Al1 that is owned by Mrs. that might bear on our bener under­ Johnson ... 1 don't have any interest in era in U.S. history through standing of what we are being told, govemment-regulated industries of any the prism of the life of one, Any final judgment must await the kind and never have had." By Caro's ac­ completion of Caro's proj ect. What count. however. Johnson's manipula­ albeit major, actor ill that makes it so fascinating is that it is un­ tion of the FCC on behalf of the station era and ill question is the derway at the same time that Johnson's makes Charles Keating's intrigues with relationship between successors are struggling to find solu­ the Federal Home Loan Bank Board tions to the problems his policies en­ look like the work of a rank amateur. means and ends;'l politics. gendered. Mi litary and domesti c s pend~ ing is out of control . our ICliders are LBJ the Campaigner In Caro's telling of it . Johnson won by elected without mandate in sim plisti c ell over half of "Means of As­ purchasing the votes controlled by the and negative campaigns, and as a people W ce nt" is devoted to the 1948 "bosses" of the count ies in the Rio we are deeply divided along generation­ Texas primary and subsequent runoff Grande va lley of soulh Texas. In the al and economic lines. LBJ has indeed a election for the Democratic nomination days following the runoff primary, vote lot to answe r for. for the Senate. The reader is given an :11- lallies cha nged constantly and finally Moreover. this struggle is taking place most da y-by-day account of the two left him the victor by 87 votes out of al­ in a context of public apath y and races. as well as what amounts to a short most one million votes casl. An out· cynicism many tmce to Johnson as well. biography of Johson's principal op­ raged Stevenson challenged the result , "After Lyndon Johnson," Tom Wicker ponent. fornler Texas Govern or Coke first at the Democratic Pany'sstate con­ has wrinen. "trust in 'the President' was Stevenson. vention and then in the couns. tarnished forever." C:lfO find s Johnson's second bid for The battle over the contested election Thi s points to the larger issue Caro's the Senate the protOlype of contem­ came down to the fate of one ballot box. monumentally ambitious work is pursu­ porary political campaigns. One of his that containing the ballots cast in ing. He intends to view the era in U.S. innovations was his use of a he licopter Precinci 13 in Duval County. When the history through the prism of the life of to make personal appearances in a short Supreme Court refused to hear one. albeit major, actor in that era and in period of time -- as many as 24 in a Ste venson's appeal that it be opened and question is the relationship between single day on at least one occasion. the votes inside verified. Johnson's vic­ means and ends in politics. In essence. Another was the use he made of polling tory, however slim , wa s assured. Caro is asking whether Reinhold data. and third was his extensive and Johnson stole it. Niebuhr was right when he claimed that sophisicated exploration of the media to The problem in all th is is that Caro's "the temper and the integrity with which get and keep his name before the voters. ponrayal of LBJ is so unrelievedly rep­ the political fight ia waged is more im­ But according to Caro, Johnson's tillian as to finally give even the portant for the health of our soc iety" greatest innovation was the systematic Johnson-hater pause . Moreover. in con­ than the outcome of any particular elec­ use of what has come to be called "nega­ trast to the breath of the first volume. tion or policy debate. tive campaigning" as the fundamental here Caro's focus is both sharp and ex­ There is every evidence that most con­ strategy of his race. He employed two tremely narrow. As a result. his subject temporary politicians assume Niebuhr simple devices. One consisted of charg­ is seen in such high re lief and limited is at best naive and at worst simply ing hi s opponent wi th something so context that questions inevitably arise. wrong. Cenainly the Johnson we meet patently false that no response seemed The reader who is unfamiliar with the on Caro's pages did. Whether that will necessary and then repeating the charge history of Texas poli tics. for example, be hi story's judgment remains to be so incessan tly that the lack of response cannot help but wonder if the Coke seen. • W:lS finally taken as an adm ission of Stevenson they are introduced to could gui lt. The other entailed making an un- poss ibly be the noble cowboy-knight he

Ripon FOrl/n!. lllne 1990 21 THE CHAIRMAN'S CORNER The Budget Summit and Why We Shouldn't Need It to know the strengths and many faults and CUI OUI specific lines thaI wasteful ­ Uy Bill Clinger of the way we run the nation's fi mUl ces, ly appropriate money_ It would al so The cold. unpleas;mt trulh is thaI our allow the president a stronger hand in f one pliid strict allcmion 10 thc na­ budget process docs not work weiland negotiat ing the budget agreements with ti onal press and politicial pundits in often the Congress docs little more than the Congress. Washing to n. Ih e nation should I satisfy the nascent poli tical pressure that Fon y three of Ihe nation's governors brace itself for a round of new taxes be­ appears each year. have some type of line-item ve to and it clIu se the federal governm ent will soon work ed very well to help the states be chargingus more for evcrything from balance their budgels. We need it on the income taxes to beer. Critics of th e We need to reform the federal level. president aTC proliferating, slI ying that 01/ A final re form thai co uld he lp us he has broken his "No New Taxes" process and excel/em reduce the defi cit and not rai se taxes is pledge. that " Read My Ups" was onl y place to start would be enhanced rescission powers. Presently. a limited promise. with the anllualllOlure of the president has the right to send a mes~ This is just nol the casco sage to Congress rescinding certain President Bush has not agreed to an y congressional action. It items in a spending bill. And while Ihis new ta;(cs. In fact. seri ous budget dis­ would make more sense to sounds good. it is basicall y ine ffective cussions have o nl y just begun and no move to a two-year budget because if the Congress doesn 'I vote on one has even mentioned the dreaded it within 45 days. it essentially disap­ "r word , All the preside nt has done is cycle. pears. If the Congress chooses [0 ignore to begin 11 serio us di scussion with the the president's message. the power is Democratic leadership of Congress on meaning less. how 10 corne up with a budget and We need to refonn the process and an A bill was recently introduced to re­ reduce the deficit. These talks are sore­ excellent place to st:Ln would be with quire the Congress. o n a trial basis. to ly needed. ;md the president has done the annual nature of congressional ac­ vote on one recission message per ap­ the right thing by saying to his op­ tion. Each year, the House :lIld Senate propri:Llion s bill. Ihus putting the pone nt s. "le t's talk ." Unfonunately. spend momhs wrestling to drafl a natio n's legislators on the record for many in the press and in Washington budge!. moving from issue to issue and specific spending items. I feel that thi s have interpreted it as "let's tax:' sifiing through priorities: we have to provision. if enacted, would go a long It is possible that an agreement at the pass 13 individual appropriation bills way towards a renewed sense of fi scal budget summit may come up with some and each one is subject to intense politi­ responsibility in Ihe House and Senate. new taxes ... o rit moL Y not. Howevcr. onc cal and special interest pressure. In :m Over the next fe w weeks and poss ibly thing is certain: no one on Capitol Hill election year. the process is even more months. the administration and congres­ or at the White House will be consider­ difficult because of the pressures ari si ng sional lenders will be meeting 10 ham­ ing new. ac ross- the-oo..1fd income ta x from 435 re-election campaigns. mer out a budget for the United States. increases. I, and many of my co lleagues. feel that In the future , we need to refoml the As a member of Congress. I strongly it would make more sense to move to a process 10 the point where we can draft fcelthat new taxes are not the solution t wo~year budget cycle so that Congress a budget without a crisis that requires to our de fi ci t problems. but that reduc­ could set long range priorities. Doing such negotiations. • ing spending and refo rming thc budget Ihe budget e very two years would process offers a way out o f the insane remove many political pressures and budget spira l which threate ns our allow the Congress to implement long range defi cit strategies. It would also economy and our natio n. Whal 's A head In The free up a great deal o f legislative lime Ripon During my years in Congress. J" ve Forum: worked through the tonuous and un­ for Congress to consider many of the other important issues facing our nati o n. wie ldy budget process 12 times. enough V' A Surprise Interview Another essential refonll that could heJp c ut the deficit and reduce unneces­ V' The Environment Bill ClinKer i.f a member of Congress sary spending is the line-item ve to. This from Pelll1sY/l'(lIIia and (:"airman of 'he special type of power would nllow the V' More on The Budget Ripo/l Soder)'. president 10 go th rough spending bills

22 Ripon ForUIII . June 1990 6 LffiRARY COURT

he Ripon Society honored visory Board upon its inception in 1981. Rudolph Giuliani al its 1990 Similarly, Frenzel has been a regu lar T Jacob K. j:lVits Excellence in participant in Society conferences and Public Service Award Dinner in New lectures. He will remain involved in York on April 30. Giuliani. the 1989 Ripon affai rs. but an official thank -you New York GOP mayoml candidme, is is warranted here to salute the Min­ the third recipient of the Jav its Public nesota native for the slUdiousness and Excellence Award. The fomlcr U.S. at ­ candor with which he approached his torney for Manhattan was selected for profession. His presence on Capitol Hill his commitment to public service and -- and thi s is no cliche -- will be sorely RudOlph Giuliani social progress. missed. Giuliani's [enure as Manhattan's chief As reported in the Forum interview RIPON NEWS prosecutor was especially characterized with Linda DiVali (see pages 3-7), three he Ripon National Governing by Wall Street corruption trials. His moderate Republican women liTe seck­ T Board elected Donald T. Bl iss, Jr. 1989 mayoral candidacy was equally ing Senate s~ ats this year: Lynn Martin president of the Society duri ng its an­ noted for its good-government theme s. in Illinois, Claudine Schneider in Rhode nual meeting on May 5. Bli ss. an allor· The annual New York Ri lXIn dinner Island and Pat Saiki in Hawai i. Along ney in W:lshington. D.C.. replaces Mark was :mended by aver lOO people. Ripon wit h m oderate Re pu blican Con­ Uncapher. who served as Society presi­ Chairman Bill Clinger served as master gressman Tom Tauke in Iowa. these dent for three years. Also elected or of ceremonies. and Marian h vits. candidacies present the GOP with ree lected at thi s year's annual NGB Senator lavits' widow. and Joshua strong opport unities fo r capturi ng meeting were: William Clinger. chair­ Javits. the longtime progressive Senate scat s in 1990. man; Nancy Draper and Andrew Mc­ Republican leader's son. presented In an unusual circumstance. two Leod. vice-presidents; John Merriman. Giuliani with the Society's Javits Ripon Society members, Richard Zim­ secretary, :tnd Steven Rolandi, Award. As Giuliani and others com­ mer and Rodney Frelinghuysen. ran treasurer. mented on during the evening, Senator against each other -- and fomler New The Society's annual dinner will be Ju vits' legacy is onc of commitment to York Giant Ph i! McConkey -- for New held in Washington on Tuesday, July civil rights and pragmatic government. Jcrsey's 12th Congressional District's 31. This year's dinner is entitled "TIle GOP nomination. But Zimmer, a state MODERATE REPUBLICAN Ripon Forum: Creative Thinking senator. emerged as the victor on June Through The Years" wi th the focus ELECTION NEWS 5. (Who says moderates aren't a strong being "Tomorrow's Thoughts Es­ force? Two in one race!) ipon Society Ad­ poused by Today's Leaders." The set­ Cong re.~sional In Hawaii. State Representative visory Board member Representa­ ting for the dinner will be a recreation R Michael Li u. charter member of the tive Bill Frenzel (R-MN) announced in of the old Roman Forum, which was the Hawaii Ri pon chapter :md the Hawaii March Ihal he will be reti ring this year se tting for debate on issues that House Minori ty Leader. is running for after serving the Minneapolis area in governed another era. the congressional di strict being ""cated Congress for 20 years. Frenzel. one of The Hawaii Ripon Society reports that bySaiki. Also. in Hawaii'sSecondCon­ Capitol Hill's most respected voices on the May 5 State GOP convention gressional District, moderate tax and trade issues, said th is about his demonstrated more unity than in recent RepU bli can Andrew Pocpoe has an­ decision: "You ought to go out when years. Two years ago. Pat Robertson's nounced his candidacy for thai seat. you're hitting .300, rathcr than forces seized the party and alienated Tcnnessee Forum correspondent Foy deteriorating." many long-time Hawaii GOP members. McDavid report s that Mcmphis Not surprisingly. the highly-regarded But today. Masu Dyer and Fay Rawles­ businessman Carroll C. Turner 111 is Ways and Means Committee leader Schoch report, the party has agreed to seeking his state's GOP gubernatorial drew considerable praise from his col­ support a more moderate platform. nom ination. A major reason for the 32 leagues for his political leadership. New York Ripon Society member year-old Turner's campaign is the House Budget Comminee Chaimlan Florence Rice. a leader of the Freedom Republican candidacy of Scot I Shepard. Leon Panetta (D-CA) call ed Frenzel Re pUblicans. wa s recently cited by a fomler coordinator for the National "one of the giants of this institution."' President Bush for her wo rk on behalf Association for the Advancement of House Minority Leader Robert Michel. of minority and low-incomeconsumers. Wh ite People and an ex-KIll Klux Klan also not s urpri singly. told The The fou nder of the Harl em Consumer member. "Tennesseans don't want th is Washington Post that he was "devas­ Education Council was praised by Bush kind of racist representing th em."' tated" by Frenzel's retirement. during National Consumers Week for Turner told The C hattanoga T imes. The Ripon Society will also miss her --30 years of serv ice to low-income "Our political ancestors were tough. Frenzel's presence on Capitol Hill. He working people." The New York chap­ progressive-minded people. ,. was one of the first representatives to ter also recently held a forum on the join the Society's Congressional Ad- pros-and-cons of drug legalization. •

Ripon FOrlllll. Jllne 1990 23 Washington Notes and Quotes

'. .' We Like That/Walch Out 4gers: .'.' .'.''. '.'. AIDS Funding: The Senate's $ 1.2 Richard Nixon to John Stacks and billio n bill to develo p improved Strobe Talbott of TIME Magazine on Constructi ve Thinking: The conser­ methods for treating AIDS and to assist George Bush's politics: .,] consider him vati ve community launc hed its "War on metropolitan areas with over 2,000 to be a progressive Republican." Poverty" in May when Representati ve AIDS cases assume the rising COSts of That comment should nOI be surpris· Newt Gingric h sponsored telev ised AIDS care represents some progress in ing. given the incumbent president 's work s hops in fiv e c ities . The the battle against the deadly disease. An benl on such issues as the environment, conservati ves ' aim is 10 tackle issues AIDS-related bill is al so likely to be educat ion. public service and housing. many in their community previously ig­ passed by the House. perhaps by the Bul don', equate Bush's policies with a nored: education. housi ng and we lfare. time this piece is read. (The Senate bill. return to strict governme nt·orie nted among others. Gingrich himse lf is offer­ is known as the Ryan Whi te Com­ solutions. In fact. his admini stration ing to pay third graders in fiv e poor prehensive AIDS Act. in honor of the represents an auempl to engage in­ Georgia communities $2 for every book late Indiamt youth who contracted the dividuals or loc;.1 instit utions in larger they read this summer. The costs of the disease through a blood transfusion.) national issues. Consider the president' s ';Eaming for Learning" plan will be housing policies. wh ich Slress tenant covered by the fi esty minority whip's .'.'.' ::: .'.'.' management and ownershi p of public speaking fees. units. Outside of a city like New York. That particular approach. of course, is RepUblica ns a nd Choice: The New where housing problems are enamlOUS. not sufficient to solve systcmic educa­ York Republican Party. in part through thi s aim could lead to substantial tional and poverty problems. Says fel ­ the efforts of Tanya Melich and other refonn. Minority groups in particular low conservative Jack Kemp: "JUSt as New York State Republican Family could be prov ided more direct the left has to be more willi ng to ques­ Comminee leaders. passed a pro-choice economic power. tion. 'Government knows best.' the platfonn plank during its May 29 state Preside nt Nixon went on 10 say of his ri ght has to rethink its laissez-faire at­ convention. The measure ove rturns the fomler Cabinet member: " He is highl y titude toward government." New York party's previous pro-life intelligent. He is hands-on. I-I e's not a Some conservati ves are balking at this position. even though the resolution en­ bomb thrower. but because he isn't a " bleeding heart conservatism." but countered serious opposition. The bomb thrower. he doesn't have any in­ Gingrich putS il best in saying; " If we part y's gubernatorial nominee. Pierre terceptions .... Bush -- I ought to leave it are going to run a commercial with a Rinfrel. endorsed the new pro-choice in football tenns -- he's the Joe Mon­ nine year-old gi rl in the ghetto saying position. thus reflecting GOPChainnan tana. The shon , sure pass. He has a very the Pledge of Allegiance. then we hllV C Lee Atwater's statement last January high percentage," an obligation to care about Ihe rest ofhcr that the party can be "a big tent" under life." which di verse views on abortion can be ::: ::: assembled. ::: ::: From July 27 thru Jul y 29. a Pro­ Ca liforn ia ~nd Prog r ess i ve Choice Republican National leader­ Republicanism: Former Representa­ The Hate Crimes Act: President s hip seminar will be conducted in tive Ed Zschau recentl y told theCalifor­ Bu sh was carped at in mid-May by Washington D.C. The three-day gather­ nia Republican League that "People columnists Rowland Evans and Robert ing is bei ng sponsored by the National recogni ze the failings of both big Novak for inviting representatives from Republican Coalition for Choice. which government and no government. Ac­ the Human Ri ghts Campaign Fund and is headed by fonner GOP Co-Chair cordingly. a progressive Republican ap­ other homosexual ri ghts groups to wit­ Mary Dent Crisp. In vited speakers in­ proac h should strike just the ri ght ness the White House signing of the clude Senator Bob Packwood and chord." Hale Crimes Act. Indeed. gay rights Representatives Susan Molinari and Zschau. who ran for the U.S. Senate in leaders were incorporated into the sign­ Constance Morella. 1986. to ld California's leading ing ceremony. which marked the first The advisory coun cil of another moderate Re publica n group: "The lime such leaders had been officiall y in­ Re publican pro-choice group. Pro­ philosophy of the CRL -- forward look­ vi ted to a White House functi on. Choice America. is now being chaired ing and inclusive. based on free market But the administration is correct in not by fonner Fi rst Lady Bett y Ford. The principles. incentives. efficient and ef­ excluding from a ceremony leaders group's aim is to support pro--choice fecti ve government. individual freedom whose constituencies are protected by GOP candidates. Conservative acti vist and responsibility. sensitivity and com­ the very act being signed. This Act man­ Ann Stone is also leading a third group passion for all people -- is the kind of dates that law enforcement agencies -- RepUblicans for Choice -- which she approach needed to meet the challenges co llect data indicating the number of says reflects " Barry Goldwater conser­ California fa ces now'-' hate crimes engaged in upon the basis of vati sm." According to Stone. " I think race, religion. homosexuality and eth­ you can be pro-c hoice and res pec t nicity. life ... This is a clear issue of government interference into our private li ves." •

24 Ripon FOri/III. jllne 1990