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NIWA Southland Climate Change

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NIWA Southland Climate Change Southland climate change impact assessment Prepared for Environment Southland, Invercargill City Council, Southland District Council and Gore District Council August 2018 Prepared by: C. Zammit P. Pearce B. Mullan A. Sood D. Collins S. Stephens J.M. Woolley R. Bell S. Wadhwa For any information regarding this report please contact: Christian Zammit Hydrologist Hydrological Processes +64 3-343-7879 [email protected] National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd PO Box 8602 Riccarton Christchurch 8011 Phone +64 3 348 8987 NIWA CLIENT REPORT No: 2018120CH Report date: August 2018 NIWA Project: ENS18504 Quality Assurance Statement Reviewed by: Roddy Henderson Formatting checked by: Fenella Falconer Dr Sam Dean, Chief Scientist for Approved for release by: Climate © All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced or copied in any form without the permission of the copyright owner(s). Such permission is only to be given in accordance with the terms of the client’s contract with NIWA. This copyright extends to all forms of copying and any storage of material in any kind of information retrieval system. Whilst NIWA has used all reasonable endeavours to ensure that the information contained in this document is accurate, NIWA does not give any express or implied warranty as to the completeness of the information contained herein, or that it will be suitable for any purpose(s) other than those specifically contemplated during the Project or agreed by NIWA and the Client. Contents Executive summary ............................................................................................................. 9 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 14 2 Introduction to climate change and natural variability .............................................. 17 2.1 Global climate change: The physical science basis. ................................................ 17 2.2 Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IPCC Working Group II) ............................. 20 2.3 Mitigation of climate change (IPCC Working Group III) .......................................... 22 2.4 New Zealand climate change .................................................................................. 22 2.5 Natural factors causing fluctuation in climate patterns over New Zealand ........... 23 2.6 Natural variability versus anthropogenic impacts .................................................. 28 3 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 30 3.1 Atmospheric modelling ........................................................................................... 30 3.2 Hydrological modelling ........................................................................................... 30 3.3 Sea-level rise, change in extreme storm-tide and coastal risk exposure ............... 31 3.4 Climate change impact assessment ........................................................................ 34 4 Present-day and future climate of Southland ............................................................ 37 5 Temperature ........................................................................................................... 38 5.1 Mean temperature ................................................................................................. 38 5.2 Minimum temperature ........................................................................................... 43 5.3 Hot days and frosts ................................................................................................. 48 5.4 Heatwaves .............................................................................................................. 52 6 Rainfall .................................................................................................................... 57 6.1 Total rainfall ............................................................................................................ 57 6.2 Wet days (>1 mm) ................................................................................................... 63 6.3 Heavy rain days (> 50 mm) ..................................................................................... 65 6.4 Maximum 1-day rainfall (Rx1day) ........................................................................... 67 6.5 Maximum 5-day rainfall (Rx5day) ........................................................................... 69 6.6 Rainfall intensity and wet day thresholds............................................................... 71 6.7 Dry days (< 1 mm) ................................................................................................... 77 6.8 Potential evapotranspiration deficit ....................................................................... 79 Southland climate change impact assessment 7 Sea-level rise and changes in tides and storm-tide levels ........................................... 84 7.1 Datums .................................................................................................................... 84 7.2 Impacts of sea-level rise ......................................................................................... 85 7.3 Historic trend in SLR focused on Southland and Otago .......................................... 86 7.4 Projections for New Zealand sea-level rise. ............................................................ 89 7.5 Tides and the effect of rising sea level ................................................................... 91 7.6 Storm-tide elevations and effect of SLR ................................................................. 94 7.7 Generic impacts of climate change on coastal erosion .......................................... 97 7.8 Coastal risk exposure to storm-tide flooding and SLR ............................................ 98 8 Hydrological impacts of climate change .................................................................. 101 8.1 Low flow ................................................................................................................ 101 8.2 Mean annual and seasonal discharge ................................................................... 102 8.3 Mean annual flood ................................................................................................ 108 8.4 Water supply reliability ......................................................................................... 109 9 Climate change impact by industry sector ............................................................... 110 9.1 Council infrastructure ........................................................................................... 110 9.2 Agriculture ............................................................................................................ 110 9.3 Fishing and aquaculture ........................................................................................ 113 9.4 Forestry ................................................................................................................. 114 9.5 Tourism ................................................................................................................. 114 10 Summary ............................................................................................................... 115 11 Glossary of abbreviations and terms ...................................................................... 118 12 References ............................................................................................................. 130 Appendix A Downscaling methodology ............................................................. 137 Tables Table 1-1: Main features of change projections per administrative region by the end of century. 11 Table 5-1: Heatwave days for the present climate, and for two future time-slices under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, shown for 14 locations in the Southland region. 53 Table 6-1: Average number of wet days per year, for 14 Southland locations. 73 Table 6-2: Average number of days per year with rainfall greater than 10 mm, for 14 Southland locations. 74 Southland climate change impact assessment Table 6-3: Average number of days per year with rainfall greater than 25 mm, for 14 Southland locations. 74 Table 6-4: Average number of days per year with rainfall greater than 50 mm, for 14 Southland locations. 75 Table 6-5: Average annual maximum 1-day rainfall (Rx1day, measured in mm), for 14 Southland locations. 76 Table 6-6: Average annual maximum 5-day rainfall (Rx5day, measured in mm), for 14 Southland locations. 76 Table 6-7: Average rainfall intensity (in mm), for 14 Southland locations. 77 Table 7-1: Approximate years, from possible earliest to latest, when specific sea-level rise increments (metres above 1986–2005 baseline) could be reached for various projection scenarios of SLR for the wider New Zealand region. 90 Table 7-2: Average values of contributors to the joint 2% and 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (50- and 100-year Average Recurrence Interval - ARI) values of total still water level at Stead Street stopbank (New River Estuary) for the present- day situation. 96 Table 7-3: Provisional results from counts of buildings and replacement costs (2011) and roads (combining all types) exposed to a 1% AEP storm-tide level + 0.4 m increments in SLR for areas of Southland where LiDAR DEM was available. 100 Figures Figure 1-1: Map of the Southland region. 15 Figure 1-2: Bias-adjusted SSTs, averaged
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