Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Chapter 1 - Introduction...... i Purpose of the Analysis...... 1 Watershed Analysis Planning Basis ...... 1 Analytical Process Used...... 2 Watershed Analysis Context...... 3 Watershed Analysis Products and Outcomes ...... 4 Watershed Analysis Organization ...... 4 Steps Utilized in Watershed Analysis...... 4 Watershed Characterization...... 4 Management Direction ...... 6 Climate and Physiography...... 10 Watershed Resources...... 11 Chapter 2 - Issues and Key Questions...... 14 Human Domain ...... 15 Silviculture...... 15 Roads and Infrastructure...... 16 Recreation...... 17 Terrestrial Domain ...... 18 Wildlife...... 18 Botany...... 19 Aquatic Domain...... 21 Regional Scale Issues ...... 21 Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends...... 25 Physical ...... 25 Climate Change ...... 25 Hillslope Processes ...... 26 Soils ...... 35 Hydrologic Processes...... 37 Water Quality...... 48 Aquatic Habitats and Species ...... 58 Terrestrial Ecosystem ...... 71 Ecology and Vegetation...... 71 Wildland and Human-Caused Fires...... 75 Timber and Vegetation ...... 77 Current Conditions...... 80 Climate Change ...... 81 Species of Interest...... 81 Wildlife...... 83 Climate Change ...... 92 Human Uses and Influences ...... 94 Heritage: Past Human Uses and Patterns...... 94 Social/Economic...... 101 Population Trends...... 101 Town of Skykomish...... 102 Recreational Use...... 103

i Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Land and Minerals ...... 110 Infrastructure...... 113 Chapter 3 - Findings and Recommendations ...... 118 Introduction...... 118

Figure 1. Miller-Foss watershed analysis area vegetative disturbance, year 1300 to present...... 47 Figure 2. Miller-Foss watershed analysis area vegetative disturbance year 1300 to present ...... 47 Figure 3. Wood density in the analysis area by subwatershed ...... 63 Figure 4. Wood density comparisons in Miller River, 1989 and 2003...... 64 Figure 5. Wood density compared in Miller River mainstem and East Fork, 1989 and 2003...... 64 Figure 6. Miller-Foss subwatershed major species composition of trees (MBS TRI data)...... 80 Figure 7. Big Huckleberry. Photo courtesy of Laura Potash, MBS...... 100 Figure 8. Population Trends...... 101 Figure 9 Median household income in King and Snohomish counties ...... 102 Figure 10. Alpine Lakes Wilderness. Gary Paull, MBS...... 105

ii Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 1. Land Ownership in the Miller and Foss Subwatersheds...... 5 Table 2. Forest Plan Land Allocations in the Miller and Foss Subwatersheds...... 7 Table 3. High mass wasting potential rating summary...... 32 Table 4. Key watershed characteristics among the 7th-field watersheds that comprise the Miller and Foss 6th-field watersheds...... 33 Table 5. Soil groups and corresponding soil mapping units found within the Miller and Foss subwatersheds according to the Forest Service Soil Resource Inventory...... 35 Table 6. Flood recurrence interval estimates for the mainstem Skykomish River at Gold Bar, WA ...... 41 Table 7 Miller-Foss Subwatershed distribution of lowland, rain dominated, rain-on-snow, and snow dominated zones ...... 44 Table 8. Lakes in the Miller and Foss Subwatersheds with Surface areas of 10 acres or more ...... 53 Table 9. 1990 Estimated critical ion deposition loads at three Washington Western Cascades Stations...... 57 Table 10. Stability in analysis area by percentage of streams from 1982 surveys ...... 62 Table 11. Miller-Foss watershed analysis area summary of fish species of interest ...... 68 Table 12. Historical proportion of Miller and Foss forest structure by sub-basin and current proportions of forest structure by subwatersheds...... 78 Table 13. Timber type and forest conditions as described by Plummer—Skykomish drainage (Plummer 1902) ...... 79 Table 14. Matrix land allocations in the Miller and Foss subwatersheds...... 79 Table 15. Acres of harvest from MBS TRI records database...... 80 Table 16. Federally Listed Threatened and Endangered Species and Designated Critical Habitat...... 88 Table 17. Regional Forester’s Sensitive Species for the Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie Forest.. 89 Table 18. Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Management Indicator Species ...... 91 Table 19 Potential Wild and Scenic River Designations...... 108 Table 20. Land ownership in the Miller and Foss subwatersheds (global changes)...... 110 Table 21. Miller–Foss Analysis Area Road miles by Ownership...... 113 Table 22. Miller–Foss Watershed Area-National Forest System Roads ...... 113 Table 23. Miller-Foss Analysis Area Proposed Road Maintenance...... 114 Table 24. Miller-Foss Analysis Area Road Maintenance Level Objective ...... 114 Table 25. Miller–Foss Analysis Area Road Density ...... 114 Table 26. Miller-Foss Analysis Area NFS Road Decommissioning (1994 ATM)...... 115 Table 27. Areas of resource concern–findings and recommendations ...... 120 Table 28. Areas of overlapping concerns–findings and recommendations ...... 125

iii Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Chapter 1 - Introduction

Purpose of the Analysis The Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis compiles available resource knowledge on the Miller-Foss Subwatershed that will be useful for management of the area. It is a product of what is known as the Northwest Forest Plan.1 It also implements the Forest Plan.2 The Miller River and Foss River Subwatersheds, also called “Miller-Foss watershed,” for brevity, cover about 65,000 acres just south of the town of Skykomish in southeastern Snohomish County, Washington. The watershed analysis provides a landscape-scale view of the processes and resources within this analysis area, and identifies areas of management concern and options for dealing with them. This analysis complies with ROD direction for the completion of watershed analyses as part of the implementation of the Aquatic Conservation Strategy (ACS). The ACS provides for the designation of Riparian Reserves and Key Watersheds, the completion of watershed analysis, and implementing watershed restoration activities.

The analysis report is not a decisional document. Watershed analysis neither involves nor takes the place of National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis. The watershed analysis makes recommendations for future actions and provides background information for use in project development within the analysis area. The analysis area will be reassessed periodically to consider new information, monitoring data, management opportunities, or changing conditions.

Watershed Analysis Planning Basis The Forest Plan, as amended provides a scientifically sound and legally responsible approach to managing federal forestlands that takes into consideration all elements of the ecosystem. It focuses on linking fragmented late-successional forests and restoring watersheds to provide healthy riparian and fish habitats. The Forest Plan direction focuses on all the components that make up the ecosystem rather than focusing on a single resource.

1 The Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie (MBS) National Forest Land and Resource Management Plan (USDA Forest Service 1990) 2 The Record of Decision for Amendments to Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management Planning Documents Within the Range of the Northern Spotted Owl (USDA FS; USDI BLM 1994). The ROD amended the Forest Plan. 1 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Watershed analysis focuses on implementing the ACS, as well as other aspects of the Forest Plan as amended. The ROD states:

“Watershed Analysis is required in Key Watersheds, for roadless areas in Non-Key Watersheds, and Riparian Reserves prior to determining how proposed land management activities meet Aquatic Conservation Strategy objectives”. Ultimately, watershed analysis should be conducted in all watersheds on federal lands as a basis for ecosystem planning and management. (ROD p. B-20).

Watershed analysis is one of the principal tools used to meet the ecosystem management objectives of the ROD standards and guidelines. It is one of the four components of the ACS, which is a key concept adopted in the ROD. The four components of the ACS are:

 Riparian Reserves. A land allocation along fish-bearing streams; permanently flowing non fish-bearing streams; constructed ponds, reservoirs, and large wetlands; lakes and natural ponds; and intermittent streams, small wetlands, and unstable or potentially unstable areas.  Key Watersheds. A system of large refugia comprising watersheds that are crucial to at- risk fish species and stocks, and that provide high quality water. Key watersheds overlay the other land allocations. These areas are highest priority for watershed restoration.  Watershed Analysis. A systematic procedure for characterizing watershed and ecological processes within a watershed. It is an important analytical step supporting ecosystem planning for watersheds covering 20 to 200 square miles. It includes an in- depth analysis of the ecological structure, function, process, and interaction within each watershed, as well as past and present use by people, and effects of current and past management.  Watershed Restoration. An integral part of a program to aid recovery of fish habitat, terrestrial habitat, riparian habitat, and water quality. Watershed analysis is used to identify restoration opportunities. Analytical Process Used A team of Forest Service resource specialists convened in spring 2008 to identify and discuss the physical, biological features and processes and human uses within the analysis area. They reviewed existing information in GIS maps, resource inventories and databases, and shared personal knowledge of the area. The team compared current conditions to historic or reference conditions and desired conditions to determine the capability of the area to meet Forest Plan (as amended) goals and objectives.

Land allocations or designations and their management objectives are as described in the Forest Plan, as amended. The analysis focuses on National Forest System (NFS) lands, although private lands border the NFS lands on the north.

The analysis team identified areas of concern during a process known as Synthesis. Synthesis identified key elements and processes in the analysis area where current conditions and trends differ from the desired or reference condition, or where a substantial threat exists that would

0BIntroduction 2 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis prevent attainment of management objectives. The team further identified and mapped areas of concern within the three resource domains: The team compared the three domain maps and produced a composite map where multiple resource concerns overlap, where the concerns should be addressed, and resolved collectively.

The composite map focuses attention on the portions of the analysis area with potential for conflicting management objectives and activities that may not meet each standard and guideline for each resource.

The team identified management options by reviewing the goals, objectives, and standards and guidelines of the Forest Plan and the ROD. This watershed analysis identifies watershed conditions, processes and management actions that trend toward, away from, or are neutral to meeting present management direction for National Forest System lands.

Watershed Analysis Context Development of the Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis used four parameters:

 Utilization of past watershed analysis experiences of team members and others at the MBS,  Emphasis on staying within the scale of the management issues within the area,  Integration of multiple persons’ input and synthesis of information, and  Recognition of the document’s value, not just to the Forest Service line officers and staff, but also to the resource specialists who are the preparers of future projects. "The Miller River and Foss River drain watersheds of the current subwatershed scale (10,000– 40,000 acres, the 6th field hydrologic unit). Previously, in the mid-1990s, when watershed analysis was developed for use at the watershed scale (40,000–250,000 acres, the 5th field hydrologic unit), the Miller River and the Foss River drainages were considered as Forest Watersheds. Due to the current more consistent watershed mapping, hydrological criteria now classify both of them as subwatersheds."

The Miller River lies within the Skykomish River Forks 5th field watershed (see Map 2 Overview), and the Foss River lies within the Tye and Beckler Rivers 5th field watershed. Previously, the Tye River, Beckler River and SkyForks, covered those 5th field watersheds minus the Miller and the Foss Rivers. At that time, the Miller and Foss Rivers were considered 5th field watersheds, therefore, not included in those analyses. However, through a revision to the documents, those watershed analyses will correctly incorporate the Miller River into the Skykomish River Forks and the Foss River into the Tye River and Beckler River watersheds.

A brief summary of the major features, land allocations, uses, and resources of the subwatersheds is included below. See Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Conditions, for more detailed information.

0BIntroduction 3 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis Watershed Analysis Products and Outcomes

This watershed analysis provides the following information:

 A description of the resource needs, capabilities, and opportunities;  Spatially explicit information that will facilitate environmental and cumulative effects analysis for NEPA, and a description of the processes and functions operating within the watershed;  Identification of information currently lacking that is necessary to improve ecosystem management in the watershed;  Guidance to develop monitoring strategies and objectives;  Guidance to restore Riparian Reserves at the landscape level; and  A list of potential projects and opportunities that is appropriate to the watershed under the Forest Plan as amended.

Watershed Analysis Organization This document is organized into four chapters and appendices. The chapters follow the steps shown above. Maps, figures, and background and supporting materials are found in the appendices. Watershed analyses are designed as dynamic document. This one is directly linked to other data media maintained at the Skykomish District Office, such as GIS large scale maps, remote sensing data, resource inventories, etc. The analysis is not, therefore, a “stand alone” document and. It should not be viewed as a “finished product”, but rather as in the current stage of a continuing iterative process, updated, and revised to reflect new data acquisition and or interpretation.

Steps Utilized in Watershed Analysis The Watershed Analysis process follows six well-defined steps (Ecosystem Assessment at the Watershed Scale, A Federal Guide for Watershed Analysis (August 1995), p. 3):

 General Characterization of Watershed,  Issues and Key Questions,  Current Conditions of Watershed,  Reference Conditions,  Synthesis and Interpretation of Information, and  Recommendations.

Watershed Characterization

Analysis Area Size and Ownership Both the Miller and Foss Rivers originate in the Alpine Lakes Wilderness at the hydrologic divide between the Snoqualmie River and the Skykomish River sub-basins (see Map 4 Watershed

0BIntroduction 4 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Analysis Area). Both subwatersheds flow to the north and each has an east fork and a west fork. They are similar size, the Miller watershed area takes in 29,300 acres, while the Foss takes in 35,000 acres (Table 1 and Map 5 Subwatersheds). A small amount of private land is present near the mouths of the two rivers along the U.S. Highway 2 corridor and the Tye and South Fork Skykomish Rivers (Table 1 below and Map 6 Ownerships, and Map 7 Merged Land Allocations).

Table 1. Land Ownership in the Miller and Foss Subwatersheds Land Ownership Miller (acres) Foss (acres) Both (acres) Both (%) National Forest–MBS 28,451 34,715 63,166 97.5 Private Inholdings 365 0.0 365 0.5 Outside Forest Boundary 504 787 1291 2.0 Total 29,320 35,502 64,822 100

Human Uses of the Watershed Area Within the last 1,000 years, western Washington’s prehistory is characterized by large permanent and semi-permanent village sites located on the lower reaches and at river confluences, and along the coastal shorelines and tidal areas. Much of the subsistence activity depended upon salmon runs in rivers and streams. People used upland areas on a seasonal basis for gathering specific resources, such as gathering huckleberries, root plants, other berries and plants, and hunting birds and animals such as grouse, and mountain goats. They gathered food in quantities and dried or cured, and transported it back to the village sites to use throughout the winter.

The prehistoric period in western Washington ended in the eighteenth century with European exploration of Puget Sound and trading post establishment. Explorers made more contact with Indian people living on the coast than those living inland or upriver. However, the amount of travel and trade among aboriginal people carried the influences and impacts of European inland, in the Cascades, as well as areas along the coast.

Mining Prospecting and mining in the Miller and Foss subwatersheds started in the late 1880s as the Great Northern Railroad pushed east to Stevens Pass. Mining activity peaked in the early 1900s when the West Fork of the Miller River was the largest silver producer in King County. More than a dozen mines were developed in the area to extract silver, gold, copper, and antimony, as well as other ore minerals.

No active mining claims exist in either subwatershed’s NFS land at this time. The Forest Service is not aware of any active mining operations known to occur within the private land in the analysis area. A plan of operation has been approved for the Apex Mine in the adjacent Money Creek drainage to the west.

The railroad provided the first transportation into these subwatersheds. During the 1930s, railroad logging activity was limited to lands near the mouths of the rivers. Other than roads along the valley floors and those roughed in by miners, roads were limited in these subwatersheds until the mid-1900s. In 1925, the Cascade Highway (U.S. Highway 2) along the Skykomish and Tye 0BIntroduction 5 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Rivers was completed, and then paved in the 1930s. Beginning in the mid 1930s, roads for timber harvest were built, in the mid 1930s, and by the 1970s, the roads allowed access to steeper terrain of the main valleys.

Recreation and Special Uses Intensive land management took place in a relatively small proportion of the subwatersheds in comparison to many of the other MBS watersheds The Alpine Lakes Wilderness was designated in 1976 when activities were still concentrated in the lower portions of the subwatersheds. Today, the main public uses of the area are access to wilderness trailheads, driving for pleasure, sightseeing, picnicking, and berry picking.

There are seven recreation residences (rustic cabins) and a group campsite on the lower Miller River. The Foss River subwatershed provides scenic views from the higher elevations of Tonga Ridge where the prized big huckleberry attracts pickers in late summer. The Foss is also popular for winter activities like cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, and snowmobiling. There are a number of small- dispersed camping sites in both subwatersheds, used mostly on summer weekends (Map 8 Recreation).

Forest Service Special Uses Permits within the analysis area are issued primarily for the road or railroad easements and powerlines. Puget Sound Energy maintains a permit along the Foss River Road 68 for power to the Maloney and Sobieski communication sites located on the ridge between Maloney and Anthracite Creeks just outside of the Foss subwatershed boundary.

Timber Harvest In 1935, the Forest Service started selling timber in this area; however, timber was harvested on private lands for mine timbers beginning in the 1880s, and later as commercial timber sales. Private lands comprise only 2.6 percent of these subwatersheds, but most of those lands have been harvested (Map 9 Harvest Area).

Forest Service timber sales harvested approximately 3,000 acres between 1935 and 1993, all but 202 of these in the Foss subwatershed. Nearly all of these acres are now fully stocked with what is assumed to be naturally conifers, with canopy closure of 80-100 percent.

Management Direction According to the Forest Plan, the predominant land allocation within the watershed is designated wilderness (Alpine Lakes Wilderness), comprising 78 percent of the analysis area (Table 2 below, Map 4 Watershed Analysis Area and Map 7 Merged Land Allocations). The next largest allocation is Late Successional Reserve (LSR), making up 18 percent of the analysis area. Less than 0.5 percent of the analysis area falls into the category of Matrix land allocation (Table 2 below).

0BIntroduction 6 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 2. Forest Plan Land Allocations in the Miller and Foss Subwatersheds Miller Foss Both Both Land Allocation (acres) (acres) (acres) (%) Congressional Reserved 22,597 28,022 50,619 78.1 10C Alpine Lakes Wilderness Administratively Withdrawn 12 Mature and Old Growth Wildlife Habitat DR Alpine Lakes Dispersed Recreation 400 0 400 0.6 DR5B Alpine Lakes Dispersed Recreation Recommended Scenic River Late Successional Reserve (LSR) 1,154 4,627 5,781 8.9 DR LSR Alpine Lakes Dispersed Recreation 2,276 173 2,449 3.8 15 LSR Mountain Goat Habitat 111 0 111 0.2 165C LSR Northern Bald Eagle Habitat 0 342 342 0.5 Recommended Wild River 5A LSR Recommended Recreation River 0.5 832 832 1.3 5B LSR Recommended Scenic River 1,403 543 1,946 3.0 Semi-Primitive, Non-Motorized LSR 322 0 322 0.5 Available Scenic Forest 0 94 94 0.1 Available General Forest 50 0 50 0.1 5A/5B Available Recommended Scenic River 131 0 131 0.2 Private 876 830 1,706 2.6 Other 40 0.1 Total 29,320 35,503 64,823 100

Land Allocation Descriptions

Congressionally Reserved—Wilderness 10C—Alpine Lakes Wilderness Allocation General Trailless. Except for trails along the main river channels there are few system trails within this portion of the wilderness, though some user- made trails may exist. This area is characterized by a lack of attractions or destination spots provides, with very infrequent encounters with other users.

Administratively Withdrawn 12—Mature and Old Growth Wildlife Habitat (pine marten and pileated woodpecker). Provides and maintains mature and/or old growth forest as habitat for those species that can utilize them for their primary habitat needs.

DR5B—Alpine Lakes Dispersed Recreation, Recommended Scenic River. No camping developments exist along the main roads accessing the wilderness, except for the group camp on Road 6410 in the Miller River subwatershed. The dispersed designation mandates the zone as used for short-term camping while engaging in other activities in the area. Management activities may be evident in these areas.

0BIntroduction 7 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Late Successional Reserves (LSR) The main objective for these reserves, in combination with other allocations and standards and guidelines, is to maintain a functional, interacting, late-successional and old-growth forest ecosystem (ROD, p. C-11), as habitat for late-successional and old-growth related species. These areas may also be managed for dispersed or semi-primitive non-motorized recreation, and contain river corridors recommended for scenic or recreation river status.

A predominantly natural or naturally appearing environment generally free from evidence of sights and sounds of human activities characterizes semi-primitive, non-motorized areas.

15 LSR—Mountain Goat Habitat Late Successional Reserve. The goal is to protect and manage habitat to maintain or increase mountain goat populations in selected acres of current and historical habitat.

165C LSR—Northern Bald Eagle, Recommended Wild River, Late Successional Reserve. Manage existing habitat to provide for the long-term needs of Threatened and Endangered species.

General Late-Successional Reserves (LSR) Standards and Guidelines

Timber No harvest in stands older than 80 years old is allowed. Thinning in stands up to 80 years old (ROD, p. C-12) is allowed. Areas where timber salvage would have a positive effect on LSR should be salvage priority. Salvage should not diminish habitat suitability now or in the future (ROD, p. C-13).

Roads In general, Road construction is not recommended, unless potential benefits exceed the costs of habitat impairment. New roads will be kept to a minimum, be routed through non-LSR where possible, and be designed to minimize adverse impacts (ROD, p. C-16). Road maintenance may include felling of hazard trees within the right-of-way.

Developments New facilities, which may adversely affect LSR, are not allowed, unless these address public needs or provide significant public benefits (powerlines, pipelines, reservoirs, recreation sites, or other public works projects), and then only when adverse impacts can be minimized and mitigated. Existing facilities such as campgrounds may remain, consistent with other standards and guidelines (ROD, p. C-17).

Recreational Uses Dispersed recreational uses, including hunting and fishing, generally are consistent with LSR objectives. Use adjustment measures including use limitations or increased maintenance when dispersed and developed recreation practices retard or prevent attainment of LSR objectives (ROD, p. C-18).

0BIntroduction 8 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Matrix (Available for Timber Management) Federal lands outside the categories of designated areas as specified in the ROD. Most timber harvest and other silvicultural activities will be conducted (ROD p .7) in these areas. No Management Allocation 17–Timber Management Emphasis exists in this analysis area. Other Forest Plan allocations overlap within the “Available” designation affect the types of activities that occur include:

Other Management Areas

Recreation and Recommended Wild and Scenic River A wild, scenic, or recreational river area eligible to be included in the system is a free-flowing stream and the related adjacent land area that possesses one or more of the values referred to in Section 1, subsection (b) of this Act. Every wild, scenic, or recreational river in its free-flowing condition, or upon restoration to this condition, shall be considered eligible for inclusion in the national wild and scenic rivers system and, if included, shall be classified, designated, and administered as one of the following:

5A Recreational River Areas. Those rivers or sections of rivers that are readily accessible by road or railroad, that may have some development along their shorelines, and that may have undergone some impoundment or diversion in the past.

5B Scenic River Areas. Those rivers or sections of rivers that are free of impoundments, with shorelines or watersheds still largely primitive and shorelines largely undeveloped, but accessible in places by roads.

5C Wild River Areas. Those rivers or sections of rivers that are free of impoundments and generally inaccessible except by trail, with watersheds or shorelines essentially primitive and waters unpolluted. These represent vestiges of primitive America. Generally, one-fourth mile either side of the main channel of the river.

SF—Alpine Lakes Scenic Forest. General objective is to retain or enhanced viewing and recreation experience. Trails and roads will be visible, but integrated with natural landscape, some management activities allowed.

SF5A—Alpine Lakes-Scenic Forest, Recommended Recreation River. (See SF and 5A).

SF5B—Alpine Lakes-Scenic Forest, Recommended Scenic River. (See SF and 5B).

GF—Alpine Lakes (Management Area)-General Forest. Timber Harvest with a full range of silvicultural prescriptions on suitable lands. The visual quality objective ranges from retention to modification. Dispersed recreation sites are common; encounters between recreations could be numerous. Motorized activities are common, rustic facilities may also be available. Roads and trails range from optimum for high-volume mixed traffic, to close after project completion.

Scenic Forest-Alpine Lakes Wilderness. Objective to retain or enhance viewing and recreation experience. Developments and use in the seen area from recreation sites. Use will be integrated

0BIntroduction 9 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis with the natural landscape. Timber Harvest with a full range of silvicultural prescriptions on suitable lands. Note: Alpine lakes Wilderness Area is managed in accordance with the Alpine Lakes Area Land management Plan ROD (1981).

Riparian Reserves This allocation, an ACS component, includes areas along all streams, wetlands, ponds, lakes, and unstable or potentially unstable areas. Riparian Reserves are mapped overlaying all other allocations. Riparian-dependent resources receive primary emphasis, and special standards and guidelines apply (ROD p. B-12).

Key Watershed The Miller River and Foss River are both part of the Skykomish River Tier 1 Key Watershed (Map 3 Skykomish Basin). This allocation overlays the land allocations of all other designated areas. Key watersheds serve as refugia and are crucial for maintaining and recovering habitat for at-risk stocks of anadromous salmonids and resident fish species. They are designated areas that either provide, or are expected to provide, high quality habitat (ROD p. B-18). Refer to the ROD (pp. 6-11 and Attachment A) for more discussion.

Climate and Physiography The upper reaches of the Miller River and the southwestern portion of the Foss subwatersheds are some of the wettest areas within the MBS, with more than 200 inches of precipitation annually. There is a strong west-to-east precipitation gradient from the very wet area around Big Snow Mountain to the much drier area around Tonga Ridge. This is the result of the cumulative rain shadow effect in the leeward side of every ridge system. Average annual precipitation at Skykomish, elevation 973 feet, is 105 inches.

The temperature regime of the Miller River watershed is colder than the Foss. However, mean annual temperature averages 4.31 o Celsius (C) (9.75o Fahrenheit (F) in the Foss, while in the Miller it averages 4.99o C (40.98o F). The difference is because a greater proportion of the Foss area occupies higher elevations and has a slightly more continental climate than the Miller has. Summer maximum temperatures exceed 26.67oC (80oF) at lower to mid elevations of both drainages.

Geologic uplift and glaciation have resulted in the rugged and steep topography of the Miller and Foss subwatersheds. Elevations range from about 900 feet at the mouth of the Miller subwatershed to more than 7,800 feet in the Foss. The upper elevations were heavily glaciated many times throughout the Pleistocene, most recently during the Little Ice Age. The landscape shows multiple glacier-carved features including cirque basins, glacial tarns, arêtes, and large U- shaped valleys that dominate this landscape. The alpine glaciers began to recede early in the 18th century, dramatically in the 19th century and present day, leaving behind talus (rubble) slopes, barren soils, and smooth bedrock scoured by glaciers and devoid of vegetation. Avalanche tracks are common along the steep ridgelines. The deglaciated areas are being colonized by pioneering species including mosses, lichens, and diverse vascular plants.

0BIntroduction 10 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Watershed Resources

Water Snowmelt and rain-on-snow runoff are the prominent sources of high flows in the Miller and Foss Rivers. Annual peak flows from rain-on-snow events occur from November through January; spring peak flows occur in May and June. The lowest flows occur in August and September. The lower Miller River does not maintain surface flows most summers; the flow is low enough that it is completely absorbed in the deep, porous river gravels.

The deep snow at the higher elevations, combined with a mostly north aspect, result in snow generally lingering into late spring and early summer. This helps sustain summer flows in these two subwatersheds. Climate change models predict a reduced snowpack that melts sooner at these middle elevations in the western Cascades. Therefore, future summers flows may be reduced.

The Alpine Lakes Wilderness is well named and well known for its high density of lakes. The Miller and Foss subwatersheds include 204 lakes of varying size from small puddles to the 266­ acre Dorothy Lake. High lakes of the western Cascades are typically low in nutrients and have limited capacity to absorb the effects of acid rain. A few of the lakes have been sampled; however, most are expected to be sensitive to environmental change.

Soils Soils, if present at all, are skeletal or shallow and rocky on the steep upper slopes, but somewhat deeper and more fertile in the valleys and lower slopes where glacial and alluvial deposits have accumulated. Vegetation

The analysis area has five vegetation zones (Map 10) represented, as described and mapped by the ecology program staff (Henderson and others 1992, Henderson PNV Model):

The Western Hemlock Zone (WHZ) occupies the lower elevation forests and valley bottoms. It covers about 10 percent of the landscape in each watershed.

The Pacific Silver Fir Zone (PSFZ) occupies the middle band of forest vegetation, with its lower elevation boundary bordering the Western Hemlock Zone. The PSFZ occupies about 32 percent Miller and 26 percent of the Foss landscape in the analysis area.

The Mountain Hemlock Zone (MHZ) occupies the upper elevation band of continuous forest vegetation. Its lower elevation borders the PSFZ and its upper elevation transitions into subalpine parkland. The MHZ occupies about 32 percent of the Miller and 23 percent of the Foss within the analysis area.

The Subalpine Parkland Zone (SAPZ) occurs above the continuous forest zone, and below the Alpine Zone. The Subalpine Parkland zone occupies about 26% of the Miller watershed and 36 % of the Foss.

0BIntroduction 11 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

The Alpine Zone (AZ) is very limited and only within the Foss watershed, where it occupies about 5% of the landscape. It only occurs at the highest elevations in areas free from glaciers and permanent snowfields.

Old forests occupy much of the land area within these two subwatersheds. Due to the high precipitation and relatively cool environment, these forests have experienced a long interval between major fires. Outside of the Alpine Lakes Wilderness, there are young stands that regenerated after timber harvest activities in the western hemlock and silver fir zones. Wind disturbance has occurred in the Miller watershed, and in isolated patches in the Foss, in the form of blowdown trees and patches.

Seven species of the plants listed on the Regional Forester’s Sensitive Species List exist in the Miller River subwatershed. Other species and other sites may exist but comprehensive surveys have not been conducted. A recently discovered moss species, Grimmia lesherae, known from only three locations in the world, is found in the Foss subwatershed.

Several non-native species are well established in the U.S. Highway 2 corridor near the analysis area. These and other species have the potential to spread into the analysis area by seed dispersal vectors. The Forest Service has targeted established populations of Herb Robert and non-native varieties of hawkweed and knotweed for weed control in the lower portion of the watershed analysis area. In order to control these weeds, a more active efforts with coordination of other entities is required.

Fish The Miller and Foss subwatersheds provide spawning and rearing habitat for native Chinook salmon, bull trout, steelhead, Coho salmon, pink salmon, chum salmon, resident cutthroat, and rainbow trout. Land management within the whole Skykomish River basin is considered critical to the overall strategy of recovery efforts for at-risk fish populations, including the protection and recovery of Chinook salmon, steelhead, and bull trout, which are listed as threatened under the Federal Endangered Species Act.

A series of falls in the lower South Fork Skykomish River historically prevented anadromous fish from migrating to the upper South Fork Skykomish. A fishway trap-and-haul facility at Sunset Falls annually passes Chinook, Coho, pink, chum, sockeye, steelhead, bull trout, and cutthroat trout above the falls. There are about 92 miles of habitat accessible to anadromous fish above Sunset Falls, about 16 miles of that within the Miller and Foss Rivers.

The Miller Riparian conditions reflect good conditions for large wood recruitment and shade (mature riparian vegetation) in the Upper River and tributaries, but relatively poor conditions with respect to these attributes in the lower river. The Foss River includes a high amount of mature riparian forest along the East Fork Foss, but low amounts along the West Fork Foss and mainstem. However, riparian conditions are recovering from riparian timber harvests in the 1930s.

0BIntroduction 12 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

When compared with the Skykomish Basin, pool frequencies are generally low. Estimates from the early 1900s can correlate, which correlates with the low amount of large wood in the channels due to past timber harvesting.

The lakes in the analysis area were naturally fishless. State fishery managers, along with recreational fishing groups and perhaps other individuals, stocked and continue to stock many of these lakes for recreational fisheries. Brook Trout are documented as stocked or as seen in two lakes, with brown trout stocked in one lake and golden trout or golden hybrids stocked in 13 others. Most of the remaining lakes were stocked with native and non-native strains of cutthroat and rainbow trout.

Wildlife Northern spotted owl, marbled murrelet, and grizzly bear are listed as threatened and endangered species within the Miller and Foss subwatersheds. A breeding grey wolf population is presumed extirpated, although transients may pass through the area.

Bald eagles feed on salmon carcasses during mid-winter in the area. A number of other wildlife species including several amphibians are presumed to occupy habitat in the analysis area, but specific surveys have not been completed.

Roads, powerlines, and timber harvest have altered and fragmented habitat for many species in the non-wilderness portion of the subwatersheds and surrounding lands along the U.S. Highway 2 corridor (Map 11).

0BIntroduction 13 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis Chapter 2 - Issues and Key Questions

The issues and key questions developed by the analysis team and approved by the line officer help determine the scope of Watershed Analysis at the ecosystem scale. This section presents the major issues in the Miller River and Foss River subwatersheds, and lists the key questions related to each of those issues that helped determine the direction and detail of the analysis. Due to the limitations of existing information, time and budget constraints, and other factors, not all key questions could be answered.

Issues describe concerns related to ecosystem characteristics and important physical, chemical, and biological processes, as well as human values associated with the watershed. They help define the scope of the analysis, as well as direct the focus onto those ecosystem elements and processes that are related to the issues. Identification of issues was an iterative process among team members throughout the watershed analysis.

Key questions elaborate on the issues by focusing on the specific information needed to determine the past and present conditions of the watershed and any causes of change. The main task of the watershed analysis is to answer the key questions.

For each issue, a series of relevant key questions are listed. The analysis team first reviewed a series of fundamental core topics and core questions presented in the Federal Guide for Watershed Analysis (USDA FS 1995, pp. 11-21) to help select the most useful questions that aid in describing and understanding important conditions, processes, and trends occurring in the Miller and Foss subwatersheds.

Both the issues and the key questions are grouped in three categories or Domains: Map 27 Human Influence, and Map 28 Terrestrial Domain.

Aquatic Domain. There is considerable overlap between the three domains, but they serve as an organizational and analytical tool to facilitate analysis of complex systems, and they serve as the general outline for the remaining chapters of this watershed analysis document.

For the Aquatic Domain, issues and key questions are pertinent to the larger scale than the watershed are described for the Puget Sound subregion, and the Skykomish River Basin.

Issues and Key Questions 14 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Human Domain

Cultural

Issue  Only a small portion of the Miller and Foss subwatersheds has been surveyed and cultural resource information is limited.

Key Question  What are the surveyed cultural resources, what is their condition, and what are the predominant threats to them? ______

Issue  Due to the high amount of human use in the Alpine Lake Wilderness, especially around lakes, cultural sites are likely being compromised.

Key Questions  What are the appropriate preservation treatments for sites that are being impacted by trails, dispersed camping, or day use in the Alpine Lake Wilderness?  What are the opportunities for preservation and interpretation? ______

Silviculture

Issue  Matrix lands within the subwatersheds are isolated and small. Some include very old stands, which are not likely to be harvested. Matrix land allocation applies better to stands that are consolidated, managed, and accessible with current roads. Matrix land allocations could be changed to benefit timber resources. Exchange for land on Tonga Ridge would improve the ability to manage for huckleberries and Christmas trees.

Key Questions  What are the opportunities to manage for timber resources within the Miller and Foss subwatersheds?  Are there stands that could benefit from pre-commercial thinning to avoid stagnation, decreased growth, or high height-to-diameter ratios?  What can be done to allow for continued recreational opportunities including the collection of forest products such as huckleberries and Christmas trees in traditionally popular areas? ______

Issues and Key Questions 15 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Issue  Silvicultural treatments to benefit wildlife in Late Successional Reserves (LSR) could improve stands with stocking outside the range of “natural” stocking levels as described in the LSRA (USDA FS 2001).

Key Question  Which stands can help meet wildlife objectives through treatment in the Miller and Foss subwatershed’s LSR stands? ______

Issue  Alder stands in the main drainages of both the Miller and the Foss Rivers are reaching ages of stand decadence and eventual decline. The disappearance of the tree component of these stands should be considered imminent without intervention of regeneration harvest.

Key Question  Which stands are at risk for degradation resulting from high density or age-related decadence? ______

Roads and Infrastructure

Issue  The Foss and Miller subwatersheds have a low level of development, but are key access routes to the Alpine Lakes Wilderness. Forest Service road maintenance resources are unable to keep up with road maintenance needs.

Key Questions  What are the critical needs for the roads within the analysis area and what opportunities exist to reduce road maintenance needs?  What are the priority road maintenance needs within the Miller and Foss subwatersheds? ______

Issues and Key Questions 16 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Recreation

Issue  Population growth in the Puget Sound is expected to result in a substantial increase in demand for outdoor recreation. The Alpine Lakes Wilderness and Skykomish area in general will see greater numbers of recreationists seeking varied opportunities.

Key Questions  What are the recreational uses within the analysis area?  Are existing recreational opportunities anticipated to meet future expectations and demands for recreation?  How many miles of roads are open to public use?  How many miles of recreation trail exist?  What are the current use levels and are there conflicts between the level of use and management goals within or outside the Alpine Lake Wilderness?  What are the law enforcement needs and how would they be better served?

Issues and Key Questions 17 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Terrestrial Domain

Wildlife

Issue  Wildlife conservation, which may include wildlife viewing and hunting opportunities, are probably two key features or opportunities on which the Washington State public places. At this time, it is unknown how much importance is placed on these subwatersheds by the Tribes.

Key Questions  What can the Forest Service do to increase wildlife viewing and hunting opportunities while protecting threatened and endangered species and inhibiting the listing of sensitive species?  How will the Forest Service mandate Executive Order 13443: Facilitation of Hunting Heritage and Wildlife Conservation (signed August 17, 2007) which mandates the Forest Service to facilitate expansion and enhancement of hunting opportunities and the management of game species and their habitat?  As habitat managers, what will the Forest Service do to increase big-game species such as deer and elk that require early-successional habitats to meet nutritional requirements?  Lesser known than the Skagit River system, the Skykomish River, along with its tributaries, support a relatively small mid-winter population of bald eagles. What can the Forest Service do to increase viewing and educational opportunities? ______

Issue  Late-Successional Reserves. Outside of the Alpine Lakes Wilderness, the subwatersheds contain large acreages designated for LSR management. Many of these stands have been managed and do not exhibit LSR attributes.

Key Questions  Where and how many acres of LSR could be treated to improve late-successional characteristics?  What is the current condition of these stands?  How can silvicultural treatments be applied to restore and enhance habitat for the spotted owl and marbled murrelets?  Can road densities be reduced? What are potential conflicts with the public who wants to retain these roads?

Issues and Key Questions 18 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Botany

Issue  Noxious weed invasion. With heavy visitation to these subwatersheds by a diverse public that travels into the area from many distant locations, there is a high risk of invasion and establishment of noxious weeds in the analysis area, especially along travel corridors, including roads, trails, and riparian areas.

Key Questions  What are the known noxious weed locations and what are the likely mechanisms for spread?  Where are the highest potential sites and vectors for spread of noxious weeds? ______

Issue  Thinning treatments in hemlock stands. Thinning these stands located in mesic to moist western hemlock plant associations within these watersheds may result in abundant regeneration of western hemlock, especially in stands without a well-developed understory. The result is a dense second-story layer of tens of thousands of seedlings per acre, as has been documented in thinning monitoring plots on the Forest.

Key Questions  What forest stands are of the age class where thinning treatments would likely improve stand health and/or improve stand structure and growth within LSR to help attain old- growth characteristics?  What western hemlock stands that might be desirable to thin are within the mesic to moist plant associations that would need special attention to prevent a dense regeneration of hemlock seedlings after thinning?  Where are the best opportunities for stand treatment? ______

Issue  As forest stands acquire LSR characteristics, and canopies close in over big huckleberry meadows on Tonga Ridge, the vigor and productivity of the huckleberry understory declines. This results in the loss of valuable recreation and cultural resources.

Key Question  Where are the big huckleberry meadows and which ones are at the most risk from impacts due to forest encroachment? ______

Issues and Key Questions 19 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Issue  High recreation use, both within and outside of the wilderness causes impacts to groundcover, shrub, and conifer tree vegetation.

Key Question  Where are impacts from recreation on vegetation the greatest, and what actions would be appropriate to mitigate or prevent further damage? ______

Issue  Increasing temperatures due to climate change may affect the sustainability of species at the southern extent of their range.

Key Questions  What are the likely climate changes that would affect plant communities in the Miller- Foss subwatersheds?  What species are at the extremes of their natural range, and what are the potential threats to those species due to climate change?

Issues and Key Questions 20 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Aquatic Domain

Regional Scale Issues

Listed Fish Stocks Widespread impacts to estuarine habitats, as well as instream, riparian, and upland communities, have resulted in large reductions in the quantity and quality of spawning and rearing habitats of resident and anadromous fish stocks. Among other fish species, there are 71 stocks of salmon and steelhead present in the North Puget Sound (sub-basin). During the first statewide assessment of the health of salmon stocks (Washington Department of Fisheries 1992), only 35 percent of these 71 stocks were considered healthy.

Eleven of the 17 stocks inventoried in the Snohomish Basin (the combined area of the Skykomish and Snoqualmie Basins, as well as the tributaries that drain directly into the Snohomish River) were considered healthy, while three were unrated or unknown, and two were rated as “depressed.” One of these latter two was the Snohomish River Coho stock, while the other was the Tolt River summer steelhead. All seven salmon and steelhead stocks listed as Skykomish stocks were considered healthy.

In the late 1990s, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) also assessed the health of bull trout and Dolly Varden (1997) and coastal cutthroat stocks (1999) across the State, and then reassessed salmon stocks in 2002. The results of this latter salmon inventory showed there were five depressed stocks among the seventeen, versus only two stocks ten years before. Interestingly, the two stocks that were designated as depressed in 1992 were later considered healthy. The new depressed stocks were Skykomish Chinook, Snoqualmie Chinook, Snohomish/Skykomish winter steelhead, Pilchuck winter steelhead, and Snoqualmie winter steelhead. According to the 1997 inventory, the status of bull trout/Dolly Varden in the Snohomish/Skykomish system is unknown (WDFW 1997). Status of coastal cutthroat in the Snohomish is also “unknown, but may be healthy” (WDFW 2000). Hence, the greatest concern specific to the Skykomish Basin and, therefore, the Miller and Foss watersheds, is thought to be the “depressed” and “threatened” status of Chinook salmon, even though bull trout and steelhead are also listed as threatened within the larger regional scale of the listings under the Endangered Species Act.

Alpine Lake Quality Some of the high-elevation lakes in the Upper Foss River watershed (in the Necklace Valley within the Alpine Lakes Wilderness) are among the most dilute in the country, if not the world. Some of the lakes sampled to date have among the very lowest acid neutralizing capacities ever recorded. This means that they have virtually no ability to buffer incoming air pollution emissions from sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides from urbanized Puget Sound (as well as long-term transport from emissions sources as far away as Asia). They are, thus, susceptible to acidification from any acid precipitation caused by the fallout of these emissions.

Issues and Key Questions 21 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

The sampled lakes in the upper Foss watershed do not appear to have depressed pH levels. However, there is one known case of a similar lake on the MBS in the Clearwater Wilderness (Summit Lake) where pH levels have decreased significantly since beginning sampling in the 1980s. In that case, the lake has become acidic enough to negatively affect the fish, amphibian and invertebrate communities. The water quality status of the Foss watershed lakes must be monitored closely as an early warning system to watch for any pH changes, just as visibility is monitoring taking place. Such changes are reversible if emission sources are controlled.

River Basin Scale Issues The ROD identifies the Skykomish River Basin as a Tier 1 Key Watershed (USDA FS, USDI BLM 1994). This status indicates that the watersheds within the basin are crucial refugia for anadromous salmonid and bull trout conservation. Land-use management within the basin is important to the overall strategy of recovery efforts for at-risk fish populations with the Puget Sound Province, including the protection and recovery of Chinook, steelhead, and bull trout stocks, which are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act).

A loss of natural riparian vegetation and upland habitats exists along the mainstem Skykomish River due to urban expansion and permanent land-use conversions are considered issues. A third issue is the confinement of the Tye, South Fork Skykomish, and Skykomish Rivers due to the presence of U.S. Highway 2, the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad, and the Bonneville Power Administration power corridor. Each of these artificially restricts the lateral migration of the rivers in response to varying flows and sediment loads. They also disconnect the active river channels from portions of their floodplains, resulting in loss of instream and riparian habitat.

Watershed Specific Issues and Key Questions The Foss River subwatershed functions as one of the main refugia habitats within the Skykomish Basin for populations of Chinook and Coho salmon, steelhead trout, native char (bull trout and/or Dolly Varden), and resident cutthroat trout. Anadromous fish are known to utilize stream reaches within the Foss to approximately river mile (RM) 8.0, and to about RM 7.0 in the Miller River.

The mainstem Miller River is nearly four miles, with about 18 miles in the West Fork and East Fork, and another 70 miles from 30 smaller tributaries throughout the drainage. Most of the forks emanate from the Alpine Lakes Wilderness, which is steep, mountainous terrain that creates many falls and cascades. In the lower forks, in the lowest mile of the West Fork, and below a large barrier waterfall on the East Fork, the gradient moderates, providing habitat for a variety of anadromous fish.

The mainstem Foss River has more than 4 miles of mainstem, with about 15 lake and glacially fed miles in the West Fork and East Fork, plus another 65 miles from 25 smaller tributaries throughout this drainage. Similar to the Miller, the forks are mostly steep but the lowest 1 to 2 miles provide habitat for anadromous fish.

Issues and Key Questions 22 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Issue  Miller River. The lower reaches of the Miller River are currently in a degraded condition. Erosion processes and the resulting delivery of sediment to stream channels may be significantly altered from historic disturbance patterns, intervals, and magnitudes. The active channel is unstable, braided, and extremely wide and shallow relative to other rivers of similar nature and size in the basin.

Key Questions  Where the geologically sensitive areas within the watershed and what are are their characteristics?  What are the dominant erosion processes within the watershed, and what areas are most active and sensitive to land management actions?  How do historic stream channel and floodplain conditions compare to current conditions?  What changes in natural conditions and/or land management actions may have been responsible for any changes in the active river channel?  What specific actions (if any) should be taken to improve channel stability and the quantity and quality of instream habitat?  Have the magnitudes, durations, and recurrence frequencies of peak and base-flows changed significantly in recent decades in comparison to historic conditions? If so, how, and have they resulted in significant impacts to available fish habitat?  Is water quality or stream temperature limiting productivity of the aquatic community in any reaches? ______

Issue  Foss River. Protection of the lower Foss River is a high priority since it serves as vital refugia for bull trout. Since the Washington Department of Fisheries (now WDFW) opened the truck-and-haul facility at Sunset Falls on the South Fork Skykomish River in 1958, bull trout and Dolly Varden (native char) have access to the Miller and Foss Rivers.  Numbers of native char have slowly increased since 1994 when WDFW began recording the number that passed through their facility at Sunset Falls. Between 1994 and 2005, the highest number recorded was 128 fish in 2004. Limited sampling by the MBS and WDFW in the early 1990s showed that many of these char were primarily residing in cool, high quality habitats in the lower Foss River. Protection of the instream and riparian habitats within the Foss are, therefore, key to the recovery of bull trout.

Key Questions  Where the geologically sensitive areas within the watershed and what are are their characteristics?  What are the dominant erosion processes within the watershed, and what areas are most active and sensitive to land management actions?  How do historic stream channel and floodplain conditions compare to current conditions?

Issues and Key Questions 23 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

 Have the magnitudes, durations, and recurrence frequencies of peak and base-flows changed significantly in recent decades in comparison to historic conditions? If so, how, and have they resulted in significant impacts to available fish habitat?  Is water quality or stream temperature limiting productivity of the aquatic community in any reaches? ______

Issue  Native anadromous fish from the North Fork Skykomish River watershed have been introduced into the South Fork Skykomish River (and hence into the Miller and Foss systems) since the WDFW truck-and-haul facility at Sunset Falls opened in 1958.  In addition, the vast majority of lakes in both watersheds did not support any fish species until they were stocked in various decades throughout the 20th century. The impact of these introduced fish on competing native aquatic species is not known in these watersheds, and in some cases, the distributions are not well known.

Key Questions  Where are the natural and human-made barriers to upstream migration of anadromous fish?  What is the distribution of resident fish throughout each watershed?  How have populations of native fish likely been affected by the introduction of salmon char into the South Fork Skykomish Basin?  What is the stocking history of lakes within each watershed?  How have native populations of amphibians and invertebrates responded to introduction of stocked fish? ______

Issue  The extent and magnitude of very poorly buffered alpine lakes in the upper Foss watershed are unknown.  The limited sampling conducted to date has indicated that many of the lakes in this area are vulnerable to acidification from anthropogenic emissions coming from urbanized Puget Sound and other industrial sources, and are at risk of becoming acidified, resulting in reduced species diversity and productivity.

Key Questions  What is the range of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in the sensitive lakes within the upper Foss Watershed?  What it the temporal variability of ANC within these lakes?  What are the trends in ANC within these lakes?

Issues and Key Questions 24 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends

This chapter provides a review of each key resource, the past conditions that have contributed to the present situation. It then describes those key present conditions. It then projects future conditions. Physical

Climate Change The earth has entered a period of increasing climate change. The rate of change is expected to accelerate along with the increased emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Increasing climate change will have far-reaching consequences on physical, biological, and human systems in the National Forests.

For North America, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) has predicted fewer cold days and nights, warmer and hotter days and nights, more heat waves, increasing area affected by drought, and an increase in precipitation that falls as rain.

On a regional basis, the Climate Impacts Group (2007) predicts a similar scenario for the Pacific Northwest. Their models predict a future warming of approximately 0.5° F per decade with temperatures increasing in all seasons, but particularly in June-August. A larger percentage of winter precipitation would fall as rain rather than snow, with an earlier spring snowmelt, lower summer stream flow, droughts becoming more common, and a greater risk of winter flooding and summer wildfires.

Ski resort snowpacks are projected to shrink, and shorten ski seasons by 3-6 weeks in the next few decades. Increases in high-intensity storms will increase upland erosion. Climate change will change vegetation patterns. Plant and animal communities will tend to move northward. Rising CO2 levels are likely to increase the spread of invasive weeds.

Plant communities are expected to undergo shifts in composition where different species will not all move in the same direction at the same rate. Loss of biological diversity is likely as species with poor dispersal abilities are unable to respond quickly enough to the shift in climate. Many ecosystems are likely to be threatened this century.

The effects of climate change on forest pests depend on whether summers are drier or wetter, a subject of some debate (Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), 2007). If summers are the same or drier, the resulting physiological stress is expected to lead to an increase in the susceptibility of insect attack.

Some strategies that have emerged recently as potential ways to mitigate for the effects of climate change are to maintain a wide range of biological diversity, including a full array of species, and

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 25 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis to maintain stands at a moderate density rather than have them in an over-stocked condition where vulnerability to stress is higher (JISAO 2007; DeBell 2007).

Hillslope Processes

Geology and Geomorphology Regional Overview The Miller and Foss watersheds bedrock geology and geomorphic features are dominant results of repeated glaciations, as well as faulting, volcanism, metamorphism, and igneous (granitic) intrusions associated with the North Cascade plate. This plate is actually a subcontinent that originated in the Pacific Ocean, and slowly migrated easterly towards the North American continent over the period when the continents formed after the breakup of Pangaea about 200 million years ago. The predominant theory of plate tectonics that much of western Washington is comprised of similar subcontinent islands that pushed into North America, and that the North Cascades subcontinent, which roughly covers the Cascades and some of Central Washington, is the largest of those islands (Alt and Hyndman 1984).

The plate will completely swallow the Washington subduction zone, as it continues to move east, shutting off the volcanic source. Washington ocean ridge lies only a few hundred miles off the coast. Mountain building in the Olympic Mountains and further south along the coast will continue after that point, however, as some of the lighter continental crusts that have partially been drawn downward rebound upwards away from these past trenches.

The Pacific Plate and Juan de Fuca Plate, under the continental crust plate formed the mountains that lie within the Miller River and Foss watersheds. This caused volcanism and the intrusion of granitic bedrock into sedimentary rocks, as well as the metamorphosis of rocks by the heat and pressure of the subduction process. Pacific Ocean plate rocks also have been thrust up against the Continental Plate, and these rocks are known as mélange (USDA FS 1997). Metamorphic, volcanic, and granitic rocks are associated with the subduction zone.

The Evergreen fault, a local configuration of the Straight Creek fault, is located about five miles east of Skykomish, WA. The Straight Creek Fault begins near Yakima, WA and travels northward well into British Columbia. Another series of parallel faults run east to west on Mt. Persis and Mt. Index and about a mile south of the Skykomish between Gold Bar and Index. The Straight Creek Fault is a right lateral strike-slip fault with up to 120 miles of offset, and is similar to the San Andreas Fault in California. There is no volcanic activity associate with strike-slips faults, but there often is seismic activity. The entire Miller watershed, and all but the eastern portion of the Foss watershed lie just west of the fault.

Most of the rocks west of the fault originated as continental crust are much younger than the majority of rocks east of the fault that originated as oceanic crust. Rocks west of the faults also generally become somewhat more metamorphosed as you travel east towards the fault; they are pieces of oceanic crust, as well as mudstones and muddy sandstones accumulated on the ocean floor (Alt and Hyndman 1984). West of Gold Bar, WA all of the rocks are folded and broken, but

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 26 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis most are only slightly metamorphosed, and some still contain fossil remains for the late Jurassic period about 150,000,000 years ago.

East of Gold Bar, but still west of the Straight Creek Fault, the rocks are older, and become somewhat more metamorphosed and deformed. Much of the rock in this area is basalt, and there is little of the sandstone and mudstone common further west. There are also several granitic intrusions including granite batholiths about 5-10 miles west of Skykomish, and another near Beckler Peak about three miles east of Skykomish and just north of the lower Foss subwatershed. East of the Straight Creek fault, which includes some of the eastern portion of the Foss subwatershed; rocks are thoroughly metamorphosed sedimentary complexes, with large masses of granitic intrusions (Alt and Hyndman 1984). The metamorphic rocks are largely older portions of the continental crust that are much older the rocks further to the west, and include areas of gneiss and schist.

During the Pleistocene Epoch Ice Age, beginning about 2.5 million years ago, virtually all of southwestern Canada was repeatedly glaciated by ice sheets that also covered much of northern Washington and other portions of the Unites States. The most recent glacial event in North America is the Wisconsin glaciation, which began about 80,000 years ago and ended around 10,000 years ago. During the Fraser (Late Wisconsin) Glaciation, the Cordilleran ice sheet advanced southward from British Columbia and terminated in the United States west of the Continental Divide. The ice sheet extended farthest along major south-trending valleys and lowlands; it formed several composite lobes segregated by highlands and mountain ranges (Waitt and Thorson 1983, In: Wright 1983).

The Puget lobe, the southwestern most extension of the Cordilleran ice sheet, last advanced into the Puget Lowland of western Washington about 15,000 years ago. It left behind a varied record of both depositional and erosional landforms, which together still dominate the landscape of the region (Booth and Goldstein 1994, In: Lasmanis and Cheney, (eds.) 1994). One branch of the Puget lobe trended west through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The other branch continued south, forming the Puget Lowland between the Olympic Mountains and Cascade Range. Low hills (approximate latitude of 46o 45') define the general southern limit of ice advance in the Puget Lowland.

Soils within the Miller and Foss subwatersheds (Map 12) are formed in volcanic, metamorphic, and intrusive (granitic) bedrocks, as well as in glacial materials within the river valleys and the mainstems, and east and west forks of Miller and Foss Rivers. The volcanic rocks in both subwatersheds are mainly andesites and breccias that preceded the granitic intrusions. Low and high grade metamorphic rocks (schists and phyllite) that originated as sedimentary rocks, were metamorphosed by continental subduction and uplifting, and are found more frequently as one travels further to the east (Alt and Hyndman 1984). The schists, phyllite, and chert bedrocks are pre-Tertiary (older that 500,000,000 years) and were intruded by granitic rocks. The peaks and ridges within both drainages are formed of Tertiary granitic rock outcrops. Alluvium and glacial materials in the valley floor, and volcanic, Tertiary metamorphics, and sedimentary bedrock dominate the lower mainstem of the Miller River.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 27 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Geologic uplift and glaciation have led to steep and rugged topography in both subwatersheds. Talus slopes, rock outcrops, and avalanche tracks comprise approximately one percent of the Miller subwatershed and three percent of the Foss subwatershed. The topography of each drainage is generally extremely steep, and except for the upper glacial cirque basins and lower side-slopes along the mainstems of the Miller and Foss Rivers, about 65 percent of slopes are in excess of 50 percent. Some tributaries in each drainage have U-shaped valleys remnant of alpine and continental glaciations, and avalanche chutes are common at higher elevations. Upper slopes and ridge-tops are rocky with jagged rock outcrops and associated talus slopes or steep mountain meadows.

The reference condition for geology is the current condition. Conditions have obviously changed since the last glaciation, but over recent centuries, there are no measurable or observable trends to report. None of the key findings relate directly to geology. Channel conditions in many stream reaches change measurably after many of the larger storm events (such as geomorphic bankfull events), but little or no information regarding channel form and instream habitat is available for times before the advent of aerial photography in the area. The earliest such photography found available for this analysis was from the 1950s and indicated relatively little change in most stream reaches in both the Miller and Foss, except for the lower 1.5 miles of the Miller River.

Reference conditions regarding the general geomorphic character of the stream channels are the condition they were in the 1950s. The trend for all but the lower Miller is relatively stable. In the latter case, the channel has straightened, cutting off two major meanders, resulting in a braided, shallow, and much wider depositional reach. This trend may be able to be reversed in future decades if riparian stands of larger conifers can be re-established, thereby increasing bank cohesion and narrowing and deepening the channel. In the event of significant change such as increase in the incidence of rain-on-snow and other flood events occurs due to an altering climate, more frequent episodes of surface erosion and mass failures would be likely. Some of the coarse- and fine-sediment generated in floods would be delivered to fish-bearing streams, and could potentially result in measurable changes in the sediment regime and channel form of some stream reaches in either the Foss or Miller subwatersheds.

Skykomish River Basin Geology Glaciation within the Skykomish basin consisted of both the continental ice sheet in the valley west of Gold Bar, and mountain glaciation east of Gold Bar (Kruckeberg 1991; Tabor et al. 1982). During the Fraser Glaciation, alpine glaciers in western Washington and southeastern British Columbia reached maximum positions between 22,000 and 18,000 years before present (Waitt and Thorson 1983, In: Wright 1983). The Miller and Foss watersheds also experienced many periods of glaciation prior to the Fraser glaciation.

During one or more of the periods of alpine glaciations over the last Pleistocene epoch (approximately the last two million years), a glacial lake formed in the area of the confluence of the North and South Fork Skykomish about five miles downstream of the mouth of the Miller River. The sediments from these lakes are the highly stratified glaciolacustrine deposits currently found in the area below Mount Index.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 28 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

The fine-grained layers of these sediments tend to restrict water infiltration and create wet soils that have high risk of slumping failures along cutbanks. Although these sites are not in the Miller- Foss analysis area, they are not far downstream, and any land management actions that might result in larger or more extended peak flows in the Miller or Foss may contribute to slope failures and slumping along the South Fork Skykomish River in the Index area.

Miller-Foss Subwatersheds Geology Miller and Foss subwatersheds soils are volcanic, metamorphic, and intrusive (granitic) bedrocks, as well as in glacial materials within the river valleys and the mainstems, and east and west forks of Miller and Foss Rivers. The volcanic rocks in the both subwatersheds are mainly andesites and breccias that preceded the granitic intrusions. Low and high grade metamorphic rocks (schists and phyllite) that originated as sedimentary rocks are more frequently found further east (Alt and Hyndman 1984). These schists, phyllite and chert bedrocks are pre-Tertiary (older that 500,000,000 years) and were intruded by granitic rocks.

The Skykomish River Quadrangle () (USGS Website) displays both drainages and their peaks and ridges formed from Tertiary granitic rock outcrops and the lower mainstem of the Miller River, where alluvium and glacial materials, volcanic, Tertiary metamorphics, and sedimentary bedrock dominate the valley floor.

Geologic uplift and glaciation have led to steep and rugged topography in both subwatersheds. Talus slopes, rock outcrops, and avalanche tracks comprise approximately one percent of the Miller subwatershed and three percent of the Foss subwatershed. Each drainage’s topography is generally extremely steep, and except for upper glacial cirque basins and lower side-slopes along the mainstems of the Miller and Foss Rivers, about 65 percent of slopes are in excess of 50 percent (Map 13). Some tributaries in each drainage have U-shaped valleys remnant of alpine and continental glaciations, and avalanche chutes are common at higher elevations. Upper slopes and ridge-tops are rocky with jagged rock outcrops and associated talus slopes or steep mountain meadows.

The reference condition for geology is the current condition. Conditions have obviously changed since the last glaciation, but over recent centuries, there are no measurable or observable trends to report. Channel conditions in many stream reaches change measurably after many of the larger storm events (such as geomorphic bankfull events), but little or no information regarding channel form and instream habitat is available for times before the advent of aerial photography in the area. The earliest such photography found available for this analysis was from the 1950s. Examination of these photos indicated relatively little change in most stream reaches in both the Miller and Foss Rivers, except for the lower 1.5 miles of the Miller River.

Reference conditions regarding the general geomorphic character of the stream channels is the condition they were in the 1950s. The trend for all but the lower Miller River is relatively stable. In the latter case, the channel has straightened, cutting off two major meanders, resulting in a braided, shallow, and much wider depositional reach. This trend may be able to be reversed in

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 29 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis future decades if riparian stands of larger conifers can be re-established, thereby increasing bank cohesion and narrowing and deepening the channel.

If a significant increase in the incident of rain-on-snow and other flood events occurs due to a changing climate, there would likely be more frequent episodes of surface erosion and mass failures with coarse and fine sediment delivery. This could result in measurable changes in the sediment regime and channel forms of some fishbearing streams within Foss and Miller subwatersheds.

Mass Wasting Potential In general, the metamorphic, volcanic, and granitic rocks that largely dominate the Miller and Foss subwatersheds are moderately hard and resistant to weathering. The exception to this is the highly metamorphosed rocks along the Evergreen Fault line and its associated faults; these are highly fractured and less stable in places (USDA FS 1997). While the Evergreen Fault has been sealed by the granite batholith that intruded into it, and is no longer active, some of the fracturing and shearing of the metamorphosed rocks probably occurred at the time of uplift and earlier, by movement of the fault, resulting in deeper soils and the less stable conditions that currently exist (USDA FS 1997). Geologic units were rated for the soil stability model used in this analysis (see Table 3 and Map 13.

Another source of instability are “perched” glacial deposits and glacial deposit and residual soil complexes that line the valleys of the upper tributaries of the Foss and Miller, as well as the toe- slopes of mainstems for both rivers where the hillsides are steeper than approximately than 35 percent slope. These deposits are prone to failure when disturbed by road construction or loss of vegetative cover. Channel widening in the lower two miles of the mainstem of the Miller River is partially attributable to the unconsolidated glacial till that lines the inner gorge of the river.

Approximately five miles downstream of the mouth of the Miller River there is a major area of instability due to the glaciolacustrine deposits that occur below Mt. Index, including much of the Mt. Index River Estates housing development. Severe and frequent slumping of the river’s stream bank, as well as rotational and infinite slope mass failures in riparian and upland areas, are visible in aerial photographs and on the ground in this area. New bank avulsions along the South Fork Skykomish River occur during most large (greater than 2-year) flow events. The Miller and Foss watersheds are major contributors to these flows during rain-on-snow events.

No surveys of landslides have occurred in either the Miller or Foss subwatersheds, however aerial photos show avalanching in the rock-dominated upper portions of the subwatersheds, and some road segments have been repeatedly washed out by debris torrents at culvert crossings during flooding events in both the Foss and Miller subwatersheds.

The MBS (USDA FS 1997) developed a soil stability model for use during watershed analysis, specifically because landslide inventories have never been performed in most of the MBS. Its purpose is to target areas of potentially higher risk due to natural stability properties within the landscape (Map 14). This model includes a number of important variables in addition to the stability classes by soil mapping units available in the Soil Resource Inventory (SRI) mapping Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 30 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis conducted by Forest Service soil scientists in the 1970s. It is based on several primary variables including geology, slope morphology, soil properties such as soil strength and cohesion (as given by parent material), hydrology (infiltration rates), and location with respect to the rain-on-snow­ zone.

The model is a spatially distributed and GIS-based analysis with individual ratings for each of the factors across the landscape. A scale from low to high or very high is used to provide weight factors and is one of the key elements of the model(Shaw and Jackson 1995), where hillslope gradient and form (convex, concave, or planar) are summarized in a matrix to give ratings of high, moderate, and low risk. High ratings are given to steep, concave topography which tends to be a collection point for moisture, soil and debris that can be mobilized when resisting forces are overcome (such as gravity or soil saturation during rain-on-snow events) (USDA FS 1997). Slope morphology was rated on a scale of 9 to 1. During the mapping, S8 soils were listed as unstable. However, this did not result in an overall soil stability modeling rating of a “high mass wasting potential”, since soil stability is just one of the several variables.

Geologic units were rated on a scale from 7 to 1, based on the relative strength or competency of the bedrock. The highest ratings were assigned to mass wasting deposits and glacial outwash deposits, with lowest ratings to competent granitic bedrocks (USDA FS 1997).

The characteristics of soil parent material were assumed to have the greatest influence on stability, and therefore, were given the highest potential weighting (from 10 to 1). Glaciolacustrine deposits and unconsolidated glacial materials were given the highest parent material ratings, with rock outcrops the lowest. Soil hydrologic groups, as described in the Soil Resource Inventory and based on infiltration rates, were rated on a scale of 6 to 1. Precipitation zones were rated on a scale of 6 to 1, with the rain-on-snow zone (generally between 1,000–3,500 feet in elevation) thought to be the most vulnerable to mass wasting, and hence given the highest rating (USDA FS 1997).

Following the original SRI soil mapping, a second soil stability mapping was completed in the 1980s for the Forest Plan (USDA FS 1990). The new mapping of unstable soils was completed by using aerial photo analysis. Unstable soils were labeled S8 soils (USDA FS 1997). There were only five small (about 20 to 80 acres) areas mapped as S8 in the Miller watershed. All of these were located in the lower drainage, near the confluence of the east and west forks. Only two areas (one about 40 acres and the second about 100 acres) were mapped in the Foss watershed. Both are located in the lower drainage, east of the mainstem Foss.

Two small areas of J8 soils (high-risk) were mapped within the Miller subwatershed, and one within the Foss. The two in the Miller are both on the eastern flanks of Temple Mountain, about 0.50 mile west of the mainstem Miller River, approximately 1.5 miles upstream of the mouth of the Miller River. The smaller site is about 40 acres. The stream outlet from Cleveland Lake flows thorough the larger one, which is about 100 acres. A 250 acre mapped J8 area is located two miles to the southeast, just to the east of the eastern subwatershed boundary of the lower Miller, where the boundary follows Maloney Ridge. The 50-acre J8 site in the Foss subwatershed lies on

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 31 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis the northern slopes of Burn Creek, about one mile east of the trailhead to the Necklace Valley Trail (see Map 15).

The total of the ratings for each of the variables described above in the soil stability mapping was used as a general summary of the existing conditions and the relative potential for mass failures. Further investigation and caution are warranted if ground disturbing land management actions are considered in areas of relatively high mass wasting potential. Summary ratings were stratified into areas of high, medium, and low risk as follows:

Table 3. High mass wasting potential rating summary Summary Mass Wasting Rating Potential Map 13 shows the spatial arrangement of high, medium, < 15 Low and low potential areas on the landscape based on soil 15- 25 Medium stability modeling. In general, the lowermost one-third > 25 High of the Miller subwatershed is stable, as are the floodplains and riparian areas of both forks of the Miller and Foss Rivers. Most of the highlands of both subwatersheds are also estimated stable. The areas of medium- and high-risk of instability is an intermixed mosaic that roughly follows the drainage patterns of the perennial and intermittent channels that drain into the east and west forks of the Miller and Foss Rivers.

Mass Wasting Current Condition Rotational, shallow, and deep infinite slope (planar) failures have occurred at some isolated locations across much of the analysis area, and they will continue to occur in the future. The two variables that have the greatest impact on increasing failure potential are areas of deep, saturated soils, and steep soils.

Road construction, timber harvest, and other ground disturbing land management actions can significantly increase failure potential, but some natural failure also occur in undisturbed stands of varying ages. Relative to some other watersheds in the MBS, the failures that are visible in recent and historic aerial photos are comparatively small and infrequent. The vast majority of the upper portion of the Miller subwatershed is old growth coniferous stands, alpine meadows, and rock. There are no obvious large failures visible on recent aerial photos that would appear to be the source of the alluvium deposited in the lower reaches of the mainstem Miller, but a further examination of photos would be helpful to try to estimate the cause of the channel changes in the lower Miller.

There are no indications of significant impacts to the Foss and or its tributaries due to mass failures. The general current frequency and magnitude of failures in both subwatersheds will continue under current land management. If a significant increase in the incidence of rain-on­ snow and other flood events occurs due to a changing climate, there would likely be increasingly frequent mass failures, and their average size may increase. Some of the large-and fine-sediment disturbed by these future events would be delivered to fish-bearing streams. The only key finding that may relate to mass failure is this potential concern for the condition of the lower Miller River.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 32 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 4. Key watershed characteristics among the 7th-field watersheds that comprise the Miller and Foss 6th-field watersheds Miller River 7th-Field Acres Stream Stream Road Road Unstable Unstable Drainages Watershed Miles Density Miles Density Soil Stability Soil Stability (Miles/Miles2 (Miles/Miles2 Modeling Modeling Rating ) ) Rating (Acres) (Percent of 7th-Field) Lower Miller A 3,123 Need Data Need Data Need Data Need Data 834 26.7 East Fork Miller B 8,495 3,055 36.0 Smith Cr.- East Fork C 1,534 595 38.8 Dorothy Lake–East D 1,770 427 24.1 Fork Gold Lake–East Fork E 2,332 537 23.0 Camp Robber Cr.– F 3,032 957 31.6 East Fork Lower West Fork G 5,057 1,921 38.1 Coney Cr.-West Fork H 1,651 536 32.5 Gouging Lake–West I 7,24 244 33.8 Fork Upper West Fork J 1,590 568 35.8 Totals, Averages for 29,308 9674 32.0 Miller River

Foss Drainage 7th-Field Acres Stream Stream Road Road Unstable Unstable Watershed Miles Density Miles Density Soil Stability Soil Stability (Miles/Miles2 (Miles/Miles2 Modeling Modeling Rating ) ) Rating (Acres) (Percent of 7th-field) Lower Foss A 5,679 824 14.5 Lower East Fork Foss B 6,837 1700 24.9 Jade–Emerald Lakes C 3,454 938 27.2 Upper East Fork Foss D 6,204 1,918 31.0 Lower West Fork Foss F 6,668 2,251 33.8 Copper/Malach Lakes G 1,769 599 33.8 Upper West Fork Foss H 4,852 1256 25.9 Totals, Averages for 3,5462 9,486 27.3 Foss

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 33 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Seismic Potential and Volcanic Hazard The Cascade Range has been an active arc for about 36 million years. Plate motions in the Pacific Northwest result in shallow earthquakes widely distributed over Washington and deep earthquakes in the western parts of Washington and Oregon (Noson et al. 1988). More than 1,000 earthquakes are recorded in Washington each year, and a dozen or more of these produce significant shaking or damage (ibid).

The presence of the Straight Creek fault in the Foss watershed, as well as associated faults in the area, increases the probability of continued significant seismic activity within the Miller and Foss watersheds.

Large earthquakes (magnitude 6 or greater) reported historically in Washington have most frequently occurred deep beneath the Puget Sound region. The pattern of occurrence observed so far indicates that large earthquakes similar to the 1965 Seattle-Tacoma (magnitude 6.5) earthquake are likely to occur about ever 35 years and those similar to the stronger (magnitude 7.1) 1949 Olympia earthquake occur about ever 110 years (ibid).

The largest earthquake reported in the state did not occur in the Puget Sound region, but rather at relatively shallow depths under the North Cascade Mountains. Recent studies in the southern Cascades near Mount St. Helens indicate that other areas in the Cascades may produce large, shallow earthquakes, comparable in size to the 1949 and 1965 Puget Sound earthquakes (ibid). The average interval of time between occurrences of such earthquakes in the Cascade Mountains is uncertain because they have occurred infrequently.

This analysis found no literature that would support any change likely from the rates of seismic activity in the region discussed above, and no key issues relate to it.

There is a gap free of young volcanoes between Mount Rainier and Glacier Peak (about 55 miles long), that includes the analysis area. Glacier Peak is the nearest active volcano to the analysis area. It is located about 30 miles northeast of the analysis area, and is one of the largest and historically more active volcanoes in the state. Since the end of the last ice age about 12,000 years ago, Glacier Peak has erupted multiple times during at least six separate episodes, most recently about 300 years ago (Mastin and Waitt 2000). The effects of any relatively large eruptions from Glacier Peak in the future would very likely be significant or even possibly devastating impacts to the biotic community within the Miller and Foss subwatersheds, as well as other portions of the Skykomish Basin.

The reference condition chosen for the volcanic activity within the analysis area is the historic record since the last ice age. Average recurrence frequency and magnitudes are probably best predicted by this relatively recent record. Statistically, it is likely that both Mt. Rainier and Glacier Peak will again be active sometime in the next few centuries.

There is no known information supporting a significant change in recurrence or magnitude in future trends and no issues are linked to volcanic activity.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 34 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Soils Two soils mapping efforts have taken place within the analysis area. The first was conducted by Forest Service soil scientists (Snoqualmie National Forest 1972) who mapped soils units grouped by geomorphic properties and parent material. The grouped soils units (soil groups) used during the soil resource inventory (SRI) do not strictly follow landforms as given in the SRI, but share some of the same geomorphic properties. Map 15 (SRI soil groups) shows the distribution of these groups within the Miller and Foss subwatersheds. These soils groups are used below to generally describe the soil types within each subwatershed. The soil group titles and the SRI soil units that are categorized within each group are listed in Table 5 below.

Table 5. Soil groups and corresponding soil mapping units found within the Miller and Foss subwatersheds according to the Forest Service Soil Resource Inventory. Group Unit

Group A-Rock outcrops, talus and boulder deposits. Soil Mapping Units 4, 5, 6, 30, 60, 0, 80.

Group B-Rugged rocky landforms with low-site Soil Mapping units 7, 8, 330, 430, 440, 630, 830. timber, and high elevation meadows.

Group C-Soils formed in residuum and colluvium. Soil Mapping Units 9, 48, 78, 88, 418, 428, 438, 448, 718, 728, 738, 748.

Group D-Glacial outwash and till soils and glacial- Soil Mapping units 15, 33, 43, 44, 53, 54, 335, 337. residual soil complexes greater than 35% slope on side-slopes and toeslopes and tributary stream valleys.

Group E-Valley bottom alluvium and glacial drift. Soil Mapping Units 13, 17, 31, 41, 42, 51, 310, 313, 317, 410, 413, 420, 423.

Group F-Stratified glacial till and lacustrine soils. Soil Mapping Units 15, 21, 63, 64, 73, 74, 83, 635

Group G-Unstable bedrock and steep landslide Soil Mapping Units 3, 19, 61, 71, 72, 81, 610, 613, areas. 710, 713, 810, 819.

Group H-High-elevation, timbered gentle-slope Soil Mapping Units 36, 46, 66, 76, 86, 364, 464, 664, soils, occurring on ridgetops and benches. 864.

Group I-Gentle-slope soils on low-elevation Soil Mapping Units 35, 45, 47, 55, 65, 85, 352, 452, ridgetops and mid-slope benches. 852.

Group J-Very deep, well drained glacial and Soil Mapping Units 10, 12, 18. colluvial soils on low-elevation valley bottoms.

Group K-Very deep, glacial and colluvial soils on Soil Mapping Units 14, 20. high-elevation valley bottoms and cirque basins.

Group L-Soils from mixed glacial and glacial lake Soil Mapping Units 22, 26, 226 (0 to 35% slopes) deposits on low-elevation valley bottoms and and 23, 27, and 237 (35 to 60% slopes). toeslopes.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 35 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

The second mapping effort was completed by the Soil Conservation Service (now the Natural Resources Conservation Service) who published the Soil Survey of Snoqualmie Pass Area in 1990. The Soil Conservation Service used the same mapping as when the Snoqualmie Pass survey was conducted, which had six, hierarchical level categories of soils ranging from the broadest eleven soils orders, down to numerous soil series, within which there are the individual soils classes (units) that were mapped in portions of the analysis area.

Since then, the NRCS, along with eight other Federal agencies, including the Forest Service, agreed upon a national hierarchical framework of terrestrial ecological units. Under the newest system, the soils mapping conducted in the Miller and Foss in the 1990 survey were completed at the land type scale, which is intended to cover areas on the scale of hundreds of miles, at mapping scales of about 1:24,000 to 1:60,000.

The Miller and Foss subwatersheds are the northern extreme of the 1990 Snoqualmie Pass survey, and only the lower portions of each drainage were mapped. Since no NRCS mapping is available for the upper Miller and Foss, the older and somewhat less detailed and less field validated, SRI mapping was predominantly reviewed for this analysis. Map 15 shows the distribution of soil groups within each subwatershed.

Under the SRI effort, each of the identified 102 mapping units were categorized into one of the 12 soils groups established. The Foss includes some areas of each of these 12 groups, ranging from a low of about 1.0 percent being represented by soil group L (see list above), to highs of about 18.6percent in both groups A and E. In comparison, the Miller subwatershed is much more homogeneous. Soil group A represents 56.8 percent of the entire Miller area, and if added to groups B (17.3%) and G (10.6%), their subtotal comprises almost 85 percent of the total subwatershed.

The combined acreage represented by soil groups A. B, E, F, and J in the Foss represent about 76.5 percent of the subwatershed. Except for group J (11.6%), all of these groups have severe erosion potential, especially when the duff layer and vegetation are removed. They generally include thin, weakly structured, fragile soils (Snoqualmie National Forest 1972). Group F also has moderate to severe potential of soils displacement (failure) due to activities such as road construction and timber harvest. Road building is problematic and expensive in groups A, B, and F due to slopes, instability, and/or need for blasting through areas of exposed bedrock. Many of the group E soils lie on pyroclastic, and most have only a moderate risk of failure due to cutslopes during road construction.

Timber harvest in groups A and B within the Foss watershed is likely to result in greater incidence of debris slides. Harvest in groups E, F, and J is possible in some locations if harvest, yarding, and roads are planned carefully (Snoqualmie National Forest 1972). Timber harvest and road construction would not occur in most of the Foss watershed because all but a small lower portion of the area near the mainstem Foss are part of the Alpine Lakes Wilderness. The seven groups that comprise the remaining 23.5 percent of the subwatershed vary from relatively stable to unstable. In general, those soils that are considered relatively stable are located on the

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 36 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis shallower slopes of glacier deposits in the floodplains of the mainstem of the Foss and its west and east Forks. Land management actions resulting in soil disturbance in these other groups result in moderate to serious increases in potential surface soils erosion, and in some specific soil units there is also elevated risk of mass failures.

In the Miller subwatershed, soil groups A (56.8%), B (17.3%), and G (10.6%) comprise 84.7 percent of the entire area. The other eight groups that occur in the Miller (there are no group L soils) range from about 0.5 percent (group C) to 4.5 percent (group F). The nature of soil groups A and B were discussed above—both have severe erosion potential. Soil group G also has the potential for severe surface erosion if the protective duff and vegetative cover is removed. Similar to the Foss watershed, timber harvest and road construction may be possible as an option in some of the land allocations outside of the Alpine Lakes Wilderness. This only includes a portion of the lower drainage that parallels the mainstem Miller, and a narrow corridor paralleling Roads 6410 and 6410 (the West and East Forks of the Miller River, respectively).

The reference condition for soil quality and erosion potential was that mapped in the early 1970s during the Soil Resource Inventory (mass wasting potential is discussed above in a separate section). There is no reason to either suspect that to measurably or observably change with the occurrence of future land management, especially considering most of both subwatersheds are in the Alpine Lakes Wilderness. If a changing climate significantly increases the incident of rain-on­ snow and other flood events, episodes of surface erosion with some sediment delivery to fish- bearing streams are also likely.

Hydrologic Processes

Climate and Precipitation The climate within the Skykomish basin is generally wet and relatively mild for most of the year, with a two to three month period of summer drought. The Cascade Range forces prevailing maritime air masses to rise, resulting in increasing precipitation with increasing elevation in the west side of the mountains. The Cascades also largely block the continental air masses, which blow from the northeast, from entering the basin. Average winter daytime maximums approach freezing at the higher elevations in the analysis area; summer maximums can exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit at mid and low elevations.

Annual total precipitation at Skykomish (U.S. Weather Bureau station 7708, elev. 973 feet) averages 105 inches. Almost 77 percent of the total precipitation falls between October and March. Although most of this precipitation occurs as rain in the lower elevations of the analysis area, snowfall and snowpack accumulations increase rapidly with increasing elevations. Annual snowfall at Skykomish averages 63 inches. In contrast, the annual average snowfall at Stevens Pass is almost 500 inches (U.S. Weather Bureau Station 8089, elev. 4,290), and about 33 percent of the analysis area lies above 4,000 feet in elevation.

Precipitation across the Miller and Foss watersheds varies greatly over short distances. The highest average rainfall equivalent in either watershed is in the upper Foss Watershed where the

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 37 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis average is 180 inches at the highest elevations (USGS 1998). This is also the highest average in the entire Cascade Range within Washington State. The highest levels within the Miller watershed also occur in its upper elevation, where they average approximately 120 inches annually. These totals contrast to only about 35-40 inches of rain annually in Everett, Washington. The mouth of the Snohomish River drains into Puget Sound in Everett, and this is only 63 river miles downstream of the mouth of the Miller River, where it drains into the South Fork Skykomish River. The confluence of the Foss and Tye Rivers, which form the South Fork Skykomish, is only five miles further upstream from the mouth of the Miller River.

Flow Regimes There are currently no active discharge gauges within the analysis area, although there was a gauge in the Miller River that operated intermittently from 1912-1931, and recorded peak flows from 1951-1970 (U.S. Geological Survey [USGS] gauge 12132000). Several gauges have operated downstream of the Miller and Foss in the North and South Forks of the Skykomish River, as well as in the mainstem Skykomish River. Among these, only the gauge at Gold Bar (USGS gauge 12134500, RM 43), established in 1929, is still active. Discharge stations used to operate on both the North Fork Skykomish (USGS gauge 12133000-RM 1.5, period of record 1911-22, 30-38, 47, 48) and South Fork Skykomish Rivers (USGS gauge 121308000-RM 52, period of record 1903-05, 12-79).

At one time, there were also gauges on the Wallace River (USGS gauge 12135000, period of record 1929-78), Troublesome Creek (USGS gauge 12133500, period of record 1929-41), which is a tributary to both the North and South Forks (USGS gauge 12130500, period of record 1929­ 31, 46-50). In 1994, Snohomish County Surface Water Management installed telemetered stage recorders on the South Fork in Skykomish and the North Fork Skykomish near Index. The County only uses them to estimate river stage, however, not discharge.

The flows of greatest interest are generally peak storm flows and low summer baseflows, both of the extremes. The summer baseflows describe conditions during the driest months of the year, depicting the quantity of useable habitat likely available for fish and other aquatic populations. The magnitudes and durations of low summer flows can vary greatly among neighboring river systems, largely due to differences in geology, soils, vegetation, watershed area, and inputs from groundwater and return flow. They are hard to estimate without some empirical data from the river.

Miller and Foss Rivers Flow Regimes The general timing of flows in the Miller and Foss river systems is likely similar to the hydrograph of the Skykomish River at Gold Bar, although the magnitudes, durations, and lag times in response to precipitation would be quite different from the Skykomish. The Miller and Foss obviously drain much smaller areas than the watershed upstream of the discharge gauge at Gold Bar. The drainage area of the Foss is approximately 35,459 acres, which is about 10.3 percent of the watershed draining to the Gold Bar gauge (approximately 342,400 acres), while the Miller subwatershed drains 29,307 acres, which is about 8.6 percent of the Gold Bar gauge. Both river systems also generally have proportionally steeper gradients, and much of their watersheds Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 38 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis occur at higher, snow dominated elevations where annual average rainfall equivalents are among the highest in the Washington Cascades. These factors result in each river responding quickly to rain-on-snow events in the late fall or early spring when temperatures at higher elevations rise above freezing, while there is a greater lag in response in the Skykomish River downstream.

Among all sources of flow information in or near the Miller and Foss watersheds, there is little data available to model current and future flows within the river systems. However, during 1930­ 1931, the historic gauge on the Miller River and the current gauge on the Skykomish River at Gold Bar provided concurrent data. There are no such data for the Foss River. The only data found recorded in the Miller River was monthly and annual average discharge. These data allow a rough correlation of some average flows in the rivers at that time, which was largely before significant logging or other management actions had occurred in the Miller River. The data showed that the average annual flows in the Miller were about 9.2 percent of the flows at Gold Bar in both 1930 and 1931. During the driest months, average monthly discharge in the Miller was 4 percent of average discharge at Gold Bar in August, and 6.7 to 8.8 percent in September. The highest flows in 1930 occurred in February during rain-on-snow events, when average monthly discharge in the Miller was 11.3 percent of the Skykomish. In 1931, the highest flows occurred during spring snowmelt in May, when average monthly discharge in the Miller was 9.45 percent of that in the Skykomish.

This review indicates that if one assumes that the relationship between flow regimes in the Miller and the mainstem Skykomish have not changed greatly due to changes in land management or local climate conditions in the 80 years since these data was collected, the monthly means can be fairly accurately estimated for the Miller River from the Gold Bar gauge. Summer baseflows showed the great variance, ranging from 4.4 to 8.8 percent, and there is likely significant variability during some rain-on-snow events when some, but not all of the higher elevations within Skykomish River Basin experience rain.

Flow statistics for shorter periods of time (such as the average daily or peak flows) made by similar correlation with the existing Gold Bar gauge would have much lower confidence (variability would be much greater). Since the Miller and Foss are similar in size, range of elevations, and watershed characteristics, it is reasonable to assume that flows would vary from the Skykomish River flows in relatively the same pattern as the Miller, although the magnitudes of those differences are unknown without conducting some limited discharge measurements across at least one water year.

Some flow estimates for both the Miller and the Foss can also be made by applying regional regression curves developed by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS 1974, 1998). The entire State of Washington is broken into nine regions, and flood frequency regression equations were developed for each region. All of the western slopes of the Cascade Range north of Mount Rainier fall into one of those regions. These curves predict peak flows based on precipitation, watershed area, and a number of watershed characteristics whose combined effects are depicted through regression coefficients determined by the U.S. Geological Survey for that drainage. The confidence in such estimates is not high (standard errors of prediction for the regional regression

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 39 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis equation that includes the Snohomish River Basin were estimated to be about 53%), but they can be valuable to estimate flood flows when designing culverts and bridges, as long as a safety factor is included to reflect the large error bands of the estimates.

Miller and Foss Rivers Flows, Based on Skykomish River’s Long-Term Flow Data Since there are no current flow data available for any of the streams within either the Miller or Foss watersheds, some rough estimates can be made based on correlations between historic monthly averages (see discussions above). Based upon Skykomish River discharge data at the Gold Bar gauge (river mile 43, 20 miles downstream from the mouth of the Miller River), average annual discharge at Gold Bar over a 50-year period (1929-1979) ranged from 2,210 to 5,884 cubic feet per second (cfs), averaging 3,975 cfs.

Peak Flows The highest average monthly flows in the Skykomish River during the period of 1929-1979 occurred during May and June, equaling about 6,900 and 7,035 cfs, respectively. The next highest average monthly flows were in December, November, and April (in descending order), but all were below 5,000 cfs. The timing of peak flows was much more varied, with the highest flows occurring in December and June (14,490 and 13,610 cfs, respectively), although very high flows also occurred in November, January, and May.

The probable annual peak flow exceedance for the Skykomish River at Gold Bar appears in Table 6 below. They are based on 66 years of recorded annual peak flows (1929-1994) using the log- Pearson Type III distribution. The exceedance probabilities equal the estimated statistical likelihood of the frequency of an event occurring for a given flood magnitude. A recurrence interval is the contrary to the probability of occurrence, such as a 100-year flood event would have a 0.01 percent (1%) probability of occurring on any one year.

Based on the correlation of limited historic concurrent flow data for the Miller River and the Skykomish River at Gold Bar (1930 and 1931, see discussion above), a rough estimate of the flows in near the mouth of the Miller River would be about 10 percent of those listed below the Skykomish River at Gold Bar. In addition, a very rough estimate of the bankfull maintenance flow at the Miller River would be about 4,000 cfs, assuming that bankfull flows occur during an approximate two-year storm event. Flows in the Foss River would be similar. See the Forks of the Skykomish Watershed Analysis (USDA FS 1997) for a more extensive review of the flow regimes in the North and South Forks of the Skykomish River, as well as the mainstem Skykomish River.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 40 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 6. Flood recurrence interval estimates for the mainstem Skykomish River at Gold Bar, WA Recurrence Discharge on Interval (Years) Skykomish River Summer Low Flows at Gold Bar (cfs) Summer baseflows in the Miller, Foss, and 1,000 161,781 Skykomish Rivers, as well as all their tributaries, are 500 147,635 only a small fraction of the annual average flows, 200 129,375 and more than two orders of magnitude smaller than some of the highest winter and spring flows. The 100 115,849 lowest flows occur in later summer and early fall. 50 102,522 These relatively small flow levels are the results of 25 89,329 drought-like conditions during most of the summer, 10 71,891 and the absence of a persistent snow pack in higher 5 58,386 elevations. In some stream reaches, it may also be 2 38,744 partly due to the complex subsurface geology that 1 11,436 exists that may transport some of the groundwater into neighboring watersheds, and thereby not Source: 66 years of discharge data contribute to feeding streams in its own watershed. Some streams in both watersheds actually go subsurface as they travel downstream. Models of the Pacific Northwest climate change also predict that annual average snow packs throughout the elevations present in both the Miller and Foss watersheds will generally decrease, and melt out earlier in the spring in coming years.

Based upon 50 years of Skykomish River data (1929-1979), August and September had the lowest monthly average discharges, usually far lower than either July or October during this period. The minimum average monthly flows recorded during this period ranged from 612 to 515 cfs in August and September, respectively, in comparison to 50-year averages of about 1,400 csf for both months. Based on two years (1930 and 1931) of concurrent flow data in the Miller and Skykomish River (see discussion above), one would expect that the minimum monthly flows in the Miller are roughly 8 percent of those in the Skykomish, which results in August and September flows of around 40 to 50 cfs, respectively.

Although current flows have not been measured in the Miller, qualitative observations show that some of the flows in the lowermost reaches become extremely low, well below 40 cfs. It is very likely that some waters are subsurface due to the very heavy deposits of alluvium, which includes rubbles, cobbles, pebbles, and coarse- and fine-sediments. Some have observed (unpublished observations, Forest Service staff et al.) some reaches of the mainstem Miller River go virtually dry for some summer periods. For further discussion regarding changes in channel characteristics in the last century, please refer to the Geomorphology section.

The Foss River mainstem, as well as the North and South Forks of the Foss, have not undergone the significant channel changes in the last 100 years that the mainstem Miller has. Boulder and large woody debris-controlled meandering channels exist, closely bordered by a mixture of coniferous and deciduous stands of mature trees and understory. No known flow measurements

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 41 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis are available for low summer discharges in the Foss or its forks, but minimum observed flows have always appeared to be adequate to provide for the diverse populations of salmon, native char, and resident trout that utilize it. There may be isolated cases of stranded fish in residual pools during summer baseflows in the Foss, and its forks, but nothing approaching the magnitude that may occur in the lower Miller. It becomes extremely shallow or dry in portions of some river reaches where the channel is hundreds of feet wide and braided over a substrate of thick alluvial deposits.

Impacts of Flood Flows on Active Stream Channels and Floodplain The 1990 hydrologic cumulative effects assessment noted that in comparing the 1956 and 1985 aerial photos, the lowest reach of Miller River (and the lower two miles in particular), began braiding and forming new channels due to sediment deposition of up to three feet (USDA FS 1990). A stream survey in 1982 documented many braids and side channels in the lower river (USDA FS 1982), and a more recent stream survey report for the Miller River (USDA FS 2003) noted that the lower river goes partially subsurface.

The Washington State Conservation Commission (2002) stated, “Natural floodplain function is impaired by bridge confinement and bank armoring at RM 0.3, and by road encroachment and a levee from RM 0.8 to 1.0. The road and levee encroachment may impair side channel development in lower Miller River.”

Examination of 1:12,000 scale 1952 and 2001 aerial photography for this watershed analysis confirmed that there were major changes in channel geometry over the 45-year period. The active channel increased greatly in width over about the lowermost 1.5 miles of the mainstem Miller River when two meander curves of the river were cutoff and the wetted channel became braided, and generally much shallower. Approximately 250 feet upstream of the Old Cascade Highway Bridge over the Miller River (near the confluence with the South Fork Skykomish River), the active channel was 120 feet wide in 1952 in comparison to 400 feet wide in 2001 and in 2008, and it measures about the same. Further upstream at the apex of the second meander curve that existed in 1952 (0.7 mile upstream from the bridge) the difference is slightly less–at 140-feet wide in 1952 and 300 feet in 2001. The difference decreases further 1.25 miles upstream from the bridge where in 1952 the channel was 60-feet wide versus 800 feet in 2001.

These changes in channel form and geometry are due to relative changes in the sediment regime and the rivers capacity to transport the sediment that is delivered to it. The river became braided in this reach because it was unable to transport all of the sediment, and much of it aggraded. The cutoff of the two meanders straightened the channel and thus increased the slope (and therefore the energy gradient) of the river. Even with this increase in gradient, the river was unable to transport what must have been a significant increase in sediment. How much of this increased sediment load originated from bank slumping and surface erosion with the wider reach versus stemming from alluvium transported downstream from higher in the subwatershed remains unknown, as well as whether this reach of the river will continue to aggrade.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 42 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

How the old narrow bridge on the Old Cascade Highway affects the flow and sediment regime on the mainstem Miller River is unknown. The bridge constrains the river, preventing it from laterally responding to changes in flow and sediment regimes. In recent years, the Miller River has overtopped its banks just upstream of the bridge on more than one occasion. This resulted in the road being temporarily closed while water flowed over the paved surface in a relative low spot just west of the bridge. The lower Foss River appeared to remain stable with low deposition when comparing the 1956 and 1985 aerial photos (USDA FS 1990). Examination of 2001 (1:12,000 scale) color aerials still indicated very few areas of channel change versus the earlier photos, and no significant changes.

Rain-on-Snow Events Large winter rainstorms and associated rain-on-snow runoff events have a great influence on a variety of landform and riverine processes in the area. Most peak stream flows are caused by these events. They occur most frequently in the “transient snow zone”, which was originally defined as generally occurring between 1,000-3,000 feet in the western Cascades (Coffin and Harr 1992).

The rain-on-snow zones data used in this analysis (Source: Washington Department of Natural Resources [DNR]) are those developed for State watershed analysis (Washington Forest Practices Board 1993). Approximately 19.4 percent of the analysis area lies within the DNR defined rain- on-snow zone (see definitions below). These events also occur at very high elevations, when temperatures typically abruptly rise due to a warm front originating in the central or southern Pacific. This occurred during the November 1990 flood (estimated to be a 100-year event in the Skykomish at Gold Bar ), when the freezing level suddenly rose to 8,000 to 10,000 feet for two days from a previous level of only 1,000 feet. In the analysis area, this meant that everywhere above the elevation of Skykomish (973 feet) had been snow covered before heavy rains fell over the entire area.

Five zones define the potential of snow accumulation and snowmelt during a rainstorm (Washington Practices Board 1993). Elevation and aspect have the most influence when making those predictions for each zone. The definitions for each of the five zones follow:

Lowland Zone: Coastal, low-elevation, and rain-shadow areas with lower rainfall intensities. Significant snow depths are rare. Less than 0.1 times ideal snow amounts.

Rain-Dominated Zone: Lower elevations where rain occasionally falls on small amounts of snow. 0.1 to 0.5 times ideal snow amounts.

Rain-On-Snow Zone: Middle elevations (generally about 1,500 to 3,000 feet) where shallow snowpacks accumulate in winter, creating the most likely conditions for rain-on-snow effects. Lows range from 0.5 to 0.75 times the ideal snow amount, and highs of up to 1.25 times the ideal snow amount.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 43 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Snow Dominated Zone: snowmelt occurs during the rain-on-snow storms, but effects may be mitigated by the lag time of water percolation through the snowpack. Lows range from 1.25 to 1.5 times the ideal snow amount, and highs of up 4.0 times the ideal snow amount.

Highland Zone: High elevation areas with little likelihood of significant water input during storms (precipitation likely to be as snow and liquid water probably refreezes in a deep snowpack). Greater than 4-5 times the ideal snow amount.

Table 7 below shows the distribution of snow and rain zones throughout the analysis area. High runoff events triggered by rain-on-snow events affect both the reaches where they occur and the downstream river channels. The rain-on-snow zone, as defined above, is thought to be only the area most prone to deliver high melt-waters to stream channels because of rainstorms and warm winds on snow packs.

It should also be emphasized that if microclimatological parameters effects are considered individually, warm winds actually cause more melting than either rainfall or direct solar radiation. Comparing the sum of rain-on-snow and snow dominated zones than solely the former may provide a more valid comparison because it appears that snowmelt caused high flow events often occur up through the elevations of the snow-dominated zones (USDA FS 1997). This comparison shows that about 37.3 percent of the Foss, and 48.6 percent of the Miller watershed, lies within one of these zones. The lowermost reaches of the mainstem Miller River have evidenced the greatest changes in channel conditions over the last several decades. These changes are thought to be largely a result of the combination of areas of unstable soils, timber harvest within and next to the riparian zone, and rain-on-snow related high flow events.

Table 7 Miller-Foss Subwatershed distribution of lowland, rain dominated, rain-on- snow, and snow dominated zones Foss Area Miller Area Zone Percentage Percentage Lowland 0 0 Snow Dominated 20.40 26.35 Rain Dominated 1.15 4.88 Rain-on-Snow 17.86 21.22 Highland 61.58 46.55 Total 100.00 100.00

Impacts of Timber Harvest Practices on Flows Severe flooding in western Washington in November 1990, resulted in the initiation of a study which attempted to statistically test whether timber harvest practices in nine basins (including the Skykomish) has increased the magnitude of the peak of floods (Connelly et al. 1993). It also led toward the development of a dispersed GIS-based model that links, and helps to explain, the physical mechanisms that might cause changes in runoff production as the result of forest harvesting, and to predict those changes (Connelly et al. 1993, Wigmosta et al. 1994). The 1990 statistical model, applicable to the Skykomish Basin, indicated that no increase due to timber harvest is evident in the Skykomish Basin (see Project Record for further information).

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 44 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Vegetative Disturbance and Management Impacts to Flows The following section describes patterns of vegetation disturbance (openings in the canopy due to fire, timber harvest, roads, etc.), and their possible impacts on flow regimes.

Rates of the interception, ablation, storage, and melting of snowpacks are greatly affected by the degree of forest canopy closure. The Forest Plan (USDA FS 1990) included an assessment of vegetation disturbance in the hydrologic cumulative effects analysis. Coffin and Harr (1992) showed that more water is delivered to the soil mantle in harvest and regeneration areas than in mature stands of trees. This increase in water, along with a change in timing and duration of snowmelt, appears to increase the magnitude of peak flows in some areas. Evidence of increases in channel scouring and channel migration appears to support this premise.

Timber harvest, fires, and road building are the major factors that influence forest canopy closure within the analysis area. These factors affect the timing and volumes of precipitation that reaches the understory and how much is available for infiltration or surface runoff. Forest Service hydrologists constructed a model of vegetation disturbance to estimate the percent of the forest stand with 70 percent closed canopy structure.

Seventy-percent closely represents a hydrologically mature forest stand (Harr 1984), comparable to an undisturbed stand that their snow budgets and resulting surface runoff hydrographs would have similar characteristics.

The vegetative disturbance model assumes that the forest vegetation remains in a “hydrologically immature” state following an event until the stand grows back to the point where 70 percent of the crown is closed; at this point, the area is no longer considered disturbed.

The patterns of vegetative disturbance caused by land management practices and natural and man-caused fires are described in detail in the Vegetation section of this chapter.

Map 16 displays disturbance estimates throughout the Miller and Foss subwatersheds between the years 1100 to present. Fire is thought to be the only major disturbance until the onset of European settlement in the early 1800s. Three major peaks occurred due to fire, which were likely due to lightning events, but Native Americans may have started one or more. A Looking at data for the portion of the subwatersheds that naturally support forested lands (excluding rocky and alpine areas, etc.) in the year 1100, 37 percent of the Foss subwatershed was burned to varying degrees (all resulting in less than 70 percent canopy cover), in comparison to 27 percent in the Miller subwatershed. In the year 1300, the Miller watershed received extensive burning, at 35 percent in comparison to 23 percent of forested land burned in the Foss. Both areas burned again around the year 1700, when 29 percent of the Miller watershed burned, where only about 7 percent of the Foss burned.

Railroad logging began in both subwatersheds around 1907 and peaked about 1920. In the Miller, most of this occurred in the lowermost watershed. Over this period the overall percent of vegetative disturbance (of naturally forested areas) for the entire Miller subwatershed grew from virtually nothing to about 16 percent, while the Foss only changed slightly from about 4 to 6

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 45 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis percent. Most substantial logging operations ended in both subwatersheds in the 1950s. Current levels are about 2.5 percent in the Foss subwatershed, and only 1.0 percent in the Miller subwatershed.

The Forest Plan (USDSA FS 1990) recommends that areas with more than 12 percent of seral stage vegetation and less than about 70 percent crown closure may have levels of disturbance that could result in undesirable cumulative effects. Neither the 70 percent crown closure level, nor the 12 percent disturbance level are meant to be used as firm thresholds, but as flags for areas of concern, and to prompt further study before future land use decisions are made.

Except for the lowermost reaches of the Miller River (about the lower 1.5–2.0 river miles), none of the 7th-field drainages within either subwatersheds currently exceed this 12 percent level of disturbance. The higher levels in the lower Miller are due to active channel migrating back and forth across the floodplain in recent decades, precluding timber stands from becoming established and maturing. Changes in channel conditions over time are described within the Stream Channel Conditions section of this chapter.

Road construction is one of the other major contributors toward vegetation disturbance. Substantial construction did not begin in the analysis area until about 1910 and peaked in 1940, similar to today’s road system. Construction continued at a slow pace until 1980 when it reached a plateau. Current average road densities differ greatly between the watersheds. The Miller subwatershed (excluding wilderness) has the lowest, averaging only about 2.95 miles/square miles across the entire area, while the Foss (excluding wilderness), averages about 3.43 miles/square mile. Along the upper West Fork Miller River, the Alpine Lakes Wilderness may contain about 0.70 mile of old roadbed, although its current condition is unknown. Further reconnaissance is needed.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 46 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Figure 1. Miller-Foss watershed analysis area vegetative disturbance, year 1300 to present

40

35

30

25

20

15 Percent Disturbance Disturbance Percent

10

5

0 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year

Foss_disturbance Foss_f orested Foss_roads miller_disturbance miller_f orested miller_roads

Figure 2. Miller-Foss watershed analysis area vegetative disturbance year 1300 to present

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Foss River 12

10

8

2008

Percent Disturbance Disturbance Percent 6

4 Miller River

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0

0 5 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 4 4 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 9 9 9 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 1950 1955 1960 1965 1 1 1 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 Year

Foss_Disturbance Foss_Forested Foss_roads Miller_Disturbance Miller_f orested Miller_roads

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 47 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

The reference condition regarding the hydrologic regime of the analysis areas is based on the flow statistics available for the period of record for the nearest long-term gauge station at Gold Bar, since there are no current flow records for either the Miller or Foss Rivers. During the 1930s, only very limited data is available for the Miller subwatershed, where the flows of the current Gold Bar station on the South Fork Skykomish River and the mainstem of the Miller River were concurrently measured.

The vast majority of the Miller subwatershed remains in old growth coniferous stands, with relatively little overall vegetative disturbance. It is reasonable, therefore, to assume that the correlations between long-term average flow statistics (but not necessarily instantaneous flows) that existed in the 1930s still generally holds true. If that were the case, two-year flow events (such as the rough approximate size of a geomorphic bankfull event) in the Miller are currently about 4,000 cfs, while 25- and 100-year events are about 9,000 and 12,000 cfs, respectively.

Since there are no records available for the Foss, the best estimate that can be made is based upon the assumption that average flow statistics for neighboring drainages are very roughly correlated to drainage size. Based on that assumption, the two-year flow event is about 3,330 , while the 25- and 100-year flow events are about 8,820 and 9,960 cfs, respectively.

Climate Change If regional climate change follows the scenarios described at the start of this chapter, then high flow watershed events will occur more frequently in the future, and the magnitudes of peak flows will increase as winter and spring rainfalls and rain-on-snow events increase. In contrast, summer drought-like periods will lengthen, resulting in lower and more prolonged summer baseflow periods. In some stream reaches in both the Miller and Foss systems, this will likely lead to additional areas where very shallow depths, and correlated warm temperatures, may significantly degrade the quality and quantity of fisheries habitat. These predicted changes, therefore, relate directly to one of the key aquatic issues, namely the degraded condition of the lowermost mainstem of the Miller River, because sections of it go beneath the subsurface in the summer and early fall through thick alluvial substrate, stranding fish in residual pools and reaches further upstream.

Water Quality

Basin Perspective The Snohomish River basin drains approximately 1,780 square miles. The analysis area accounts for about 5.7 percent of that area (approximately 64,825 acres or about 101.3 square miles). Land uses within the Skykomish basin range from predominantly timber harvest and forest recreation in the upper basin (including most of the watershed analysis area), to some agriculture and residential development through the middle regions, and areas of urban and industrial use along Puget Sound. Approximately 68 percent of Snohomish basin is forested and 20 percent has alpine or other natural cover, while less than three percent is agricultural and about two percent is predominantly municipal, industrial, or residential (Pacific Groundwater Group 1995). This is

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 48 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis comparable to the analysis area, with 72 percent being forested, 21 percent having alpine or other natural cover, and 0 percent being agricultural or residential, respectively.

Within the last decade, the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) completed a “Watershed Approach to Water Quality Management: Needs Assessment for the Island/Snohomish Watersheds” (Ecology 1996) to analyze the interrelated issues of water quantity, quality, and fisheries habitat and populations within the basin. In 1997, the Pacific Groundwater Group prepared an “Initial Watershed Assessment-Water Resources Inventory Area 7, Snohomish River Watershed”. This study dealt largely with current and predicted water rights and associated water quality issues in the basin.

An interagency task force also identified and prioritized basin-wide water quality conditions and issues, and began to formulate effective and cooperative regional planning efforts to solve problems (Snohomish Basin Regional Water Resources Planning Effort 1996). This group identified 13 areas of study and work needed, ranging from the impacts of forestry activities and fisheries water quality protection, to methods of data sharing, and funding the prioritized tasks that are recommended under each topic area. Similar committees have addressed water quantity and fisheries issues. The most recent of these are the limiting factor analyses conducted by the State Conservation Commission (2002) for the Snohomish Basin, and the Snohomish River Basin Chinook Salmon Conservation and Recovery Plan (Snohomish Basin Salmon Conservation Plan 2005). These efforts helped to identify data gaps and suggested priorities for future data collection in systems such as the Skykomish sub-basin. However, very little water quality data have been collected in the interim upstream of the gauge station at Gold Bar.

Water quality throughout the Snohomish Basin is considered generally good. However, increasing urbanization has led to deteriorating conditions in some reaches, the potential exists for deterioration due to increases in point, and nonpoint sources of pollutants over many stream reaches and lakes in the relatively near future.

Increased levels of fecal coliform bacteria and decreases in dissolved oxygen concentrations have already been observed in some areas low in the basin. The only intensive data, which exists near the analysis area, is for ambient stations located at Gold Bar from 1959 to 1992 (U.S. Geologic Survey 1996, Washington State Department of Ecology 1996). Those monthly samples indicated relatively high quality stream waters in the mainstem Skykomish (23 river miles below the Miller and Foss analysis area) at that time.

Stream Water Quality The quality of surface waters of the State of Washington, including streams and lakes in NFS lands, are regulated by State law (WAC 173-201A-200 2006). All waters on NFS lands are to be protected for the designation of “salmonid spawning and rearing, and migration; primary contact recreation, domestic, industrial, and agricultural water supply; stock watering; wildlife habitat; harvesting; navigation; boating, and aesthetic values”. In addition, NFS lands are protected for “summer salmonids habitat; and extraordinary primary contact recreation” (WAC 173-201A­ 600).

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 49 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Washington State surface water quality standards have changed significantly over the last decade. The current (2006) code lists standards for water temperature, dissolved oxygen, total dissolved gas, turbidity, pH, and bacteria levels (WAC 173-201A-600). Except for bacteria levels, all of the acceptable ranges for these variables are closely tied to the site-specific potential uses of the possible fisheries in the area. Six categories of fish use are described, ranging from possible rearing and spawning of char, to use by indigenous warm water fish species. In addition, general water quality criteria for toxic, radioactive, and deleterious materials, as well as aesthetic values exist (WAC 173-201A-260). The absence of standards for nutrients and other variables does not imply that the list above includes all the important parameters, just that these are the only variables for which standards are established.

None of the streams within the Miller and Foss subwatersheds are listed on the State’s 303(d) list for waterbodies not meeting State surface water quality standards; however, water temperature is the only known sampled water quality variable is in either the Foss or Miller subwatersheds. There are no known reasons, or potential sources of contamination in the Foss River system that would not meet State standards. It is also unlikely that any stream segments would have human- caused elevations in turbidity high enough to merit 303(d) listing.

There have been multiple observations of water temperature in the mainstem Foss, as well as the west and east forks in the summers of 1982 and 2000. The Foss river system supports native char (bull trout and Dolly Varden) along the entire mainstem Foss, and into the lower portions of both forks. The maximum allowable temperature under the WAC standards for char spawning and rearing is 12o C (53.6oF). None of the ten measurements taken in the mainstem Foss in 1982 (spanning May 18 to August 9) exceeded this, nor did the two recordings in the East Fork Foss in July and August; however, both of the August measurements in the West Fork Foss were 13o C (55.4 o F). All of the seven measurements made in he mainstem in August 2000 ranged from about 11.5 (52.7 o F) to 12.5o C (54.5 o F). The range of the 19 samples collected in the east fork during a five day period in late August was similar. The West Fork Foss, however, again exceeded the standard of 12o C (53.6o F). Only one of the nine readings made among three days in August 2000 were below the standard, and two of the readings were about 14.5o C (58.1o F).

Whether the relatively high water temperature readings in the West Fork Foss are due to human- caused changes in canopy cover or are a natural condition is unclear. The data do warrant further study to determine the range of water temperatures in the West Fork Foss among an entire summer at several locations, and if these reading are linked to past timber harvests, or other land management actions. Elevated water temperatures, and therefore possibly correlated dissolved oxygen levels, could negatively affect the success of rearing or spawning of native char in some reaches of the West Fork.

The only known water quality sampling in the Miller River recorded water temperatures, collected during stream habitat surveys. There is, however, no known reason to suspect any measurable contamination over the vast majority of the subwatershed. There is more doubt about the nature of the water quality in the lower Miller subwatershed for two reasons. The first is potential increases in turbidity during high flow events over the lower 1.5 miles where the

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 50 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis mainstem braids through unstable alluvium. The second potential cause is possible contamination of surface or ground waters by heavy metals due to the presence of a mining mill site near the mouth of the Miller. The Cashman Mill is located near the lower reaches of Money Creek and the Miller River (Money Creek drains into the South Fork Skykomish just downstream from the confluence of the Miller and South Fork Skykomish Rivers).

Some limited sampling of surface and groundwater near both the mill site, and near the currently abandoned Apex mine located in the upper Money Creek subwatershed, was conducted in 2005 (USDA FS 2005). Results from a 2005 study and an earlier 2004 study (Raforth et al. 2004) indicated levels of heavy metals in some groundwater and surface water samples near the mine (in Milwaukee Creek, an upper tributary to Money Creek) and near the mill site downstream (in a drainage channel just upstream of Money Creek). These levels did not meet Washington State standards for acute and/or chronic water quality standards for copper, zinc, cadmium, and lead. Surface water, groundwater, and sediment samples collected at other several other locations near the Apex mine and the mill site did meet State standards (USDA FS 2005). A second abandoned mine (Damon) is also located in the headwaters of Money Creek. In 2003, limited sampling (USDA FS 2003) in both the effluents of one mine adit, as well as in Money Creek (one site upstream of the mine and one downstream) indicated that pH and all heavy metals sampled met State standards for acute and/or chronic water quality.

Water temperatures were recorded at several locations in both the mainstem Miller River and its forks in 1982, 1989, and 2003(the field data for the 2003 surveys was unavailable at the time of writing). Fifteen samples were collected along the mainstem of the Miller in June and July of 1982—all of these samples were 9o C (48.2 o F) or colder. Similarly, all four samples collected in May and July of 1982 in the West Fork Miller never exceeded 8o C (46.4 o F). Eight temperatures recorded in the mainstem Miller in August 1989, all were above (did not meet) the WAC standard of 12o C (53.6o F) for char spawning and rearing, and the two warmest ones were almost 17o C (62.6 o F).

Due to the extensive logging on both sides of the river along its lowermost reaches, it is likely that some of these relatively high measurements are at least partially due to land management actions. Likewise, all temperature readings in the East Fork Miller River in August 1989 were also above 12o C, with the greatest being 14.5o C (58.1o F) on one day. The Miller River indicates no sign of potential to support the native char population that the Foss system does, but char do utilize it seasonally, and salmon and trout use it extensively. The WAC standard for spawning for salmon and trout is 13o C (55.4 o F), only one degree warmer than the standard for native char.

As noted above, the only water quality data available for either the Miller or Foss River is water temperature, but the presence of diverse, healthy salmonid populations in both drainages indicates that quality is likely generally good. It is not, however, conclusive that there are not some inputs of deleterious materials, such as heavy metals. Among the limited recent water temperature recordings made, there were a few observations warmer than the State standards for salmon and/or bull trout. The reference condition chosen is the current condition. Predicted climate changes in this region (see discussion in Climate section and through this chapter), could cause

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 51 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis prolonged periods of low summer baseflows, and perhaps elevate water temperature, while concurrently decreasing dissolved oxygen. Periods of relatively high turbidity during the more frequent and greater magnitude high flow events in winter and the spring would also be likely. The only aquatic key issue that directly relates to stream water quality is the current degraded condition of the lowermost reaches of the mainstem Miller River.

Effects of Airborne Pollutants to Lakes Water Quality There is limited data available on the water quality of the 204 waterbodies located within the Foss and Miller subwatersheds. Even so, there is more available than exists in the vast majority of alpine lake systems in the country. These lakes total approximately 1,825 acres in surface area (about 2.8 percent of the 64,825-acre analysis area) and vary from small ponds to 26 lakes larger than 100 acres in surface area (Table 8). Many of the larger lakes occur in the Foss subwatershed, and several are over 100 feet deep. The Foss subwatershed has among the highest density and total surface area of lakes of any of the subwatersheds within the entire MBS.

The vast majority of all the lakes within the Foss and Miller did not have fish populations before stocking—largely unregulated plantings for several decades initially—began in the early 1900s, but they did historically support invertebrate populations, and many supported native amphibian populations.

There is a substantive risk of future measurable impacts to the aquatic community due to these air emissions. The following discussion describes detailed current and expected future risks of water quality degradation caused by acidic deposition.

Among the 79 lakes larger than 1 acre in surface area, only 9 have no record of fish stocking. However, this is not to conclude that the lakes were never stocked—but perhaps they did not support fish. During limited field visits, fish have been observed in most of these lakes over the last decade, and there may well be fish in other lakes, just not observed. Among the 123 lakes smaller than 1-acre in size, only 14 have stocking records, but likely several more have been planted. The rate of natural reproduction in these small lakes is largely unknown, and many stocked in the past no longer support fish.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 52 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 8. Lakes in the Miller and Foss Subwatersheds with Surface areas of 10 acres or more

Last Elev. Last Species Last Species Natural Subwatershed Lake Name Acres Stocking (Feet) Stocked In Lake Observed In Lake Reproduction Date Oncorhynchus Oncorhynchus Clarkii Foss Nazanne Lake 10.7 4,701 03-Oct-99 None Aguabonita Clarkii Oncorhynchus Oncorhynchus Clarkii Foss Trout Lake 14.9 2,020 07-Aug-76 Undetermined Mykiss Bouvieri Peasoup Lake; Foss Lynch Glacier 16.2 6,220 Unknown Unknown Unknown None Lake La Bohn Lake No. Oncorhynchus Foss 3; Upper La Bohn 18.2 5,836 15-Sep-05 Salmonidae None Mykiss Lake Oncorhynchus Foss Jade Lake 23 5,442 05-Aug-00 Salmonidae Undetermined Mykiss Rock Lake; Evens Foss 23.6 4,547 Salmo Trutta 11-Jun-94 Salvelinus Fontinalis Good Lake; Biner Lake Iron Cap Lake; Foss 24.5 5,472 Unknown Unknown Unknown Undetermined Iron Cap Oncorhynchus Foss Little Heart Lake 27.1 4,204 27-Aug-90 Salmonidae Good Mykiss Hinman Lake; Foss 32.7 5,340 Unknown Unknown Unknown Undetermined Hinman Lake Oncorhynchus Foss lswoot Lake 43.4 4,590 27-Aug-01 Salmonidae Undetermined Mykiss Oncorhynchus Foss Azurite Lake 43.6 4,520 01-Jul-66 Salmonidae Fair Clarkii Delta Lake; Hunts Oncorhynchus Foss 45.6 3,231 27-Sep-73 Oncorhynchus Mykiss High Lake Mykiss Oncorhynchus Foss Locket Lake 46.1 4,630 18-Aug-76 Oncorhynchus Mykiss Fair Mykiss Foss Malachite Lake; 72.3 4,089 Oncorhynchus 27-Aug-90 Salmonidae Fair

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 53 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Last Elev. Last Species Last Species Natural Subwatershed Lake Name Acres Stocking (Feet) Stocked In Lake Observed In Lake Reproduction Date Actually Twp 24.5 Clarkii Clarkii Chetwood Lake; Oncorhynchus Foss 101 4,905 22-Aug-84 Oncorhynchus Clarkii Good Chetwood Lake Clarkii Clarkii Oncorhynchus Foss Copper Lake 132.4 3,959 05-Sep-73 Salmonidae Good Clarkii Clarkii Oncorhynchus Foss Otter Lake 175 3,925 10-May-84 Oncorhynchus Mykiss Fair Mykiss Big Heart Lake; Oncorhynchus Foss 176 4,545 27-Aug-01 Salmonidae Undetermined Heart Lake Mykiss Oncorhynchus Foss Angeline Lake 184 4,609 27-Aug-01 Oncorhynchus Clarkii Fair Clarkii Clarkii Francis Lake; Oncorhynchus Miller 36.9 4,289 01-Jan-02 Salmonidae None Ester Lake Mykiss Gold Lake; Eagle Oncorhynchus Miller 52.3 4,838 17-Jul-69 Oncorhynchus Mykiss Fair Lake Mykiss Gold Lake; Eagle Oncorhynchus Miller 52.3 4,838 17-Jul-69 Oncorhynchus Mykiss Fair Lake Mykiss Pugsley Lake; Miller 16.3 3,420 Salvelinus Fontinalis 11-Jul-61 Salvelinus Fontinalis Good Dans Lake Oncorhynchus Miller Coney Lake 17.8 5,161 01-Aug-06 Oncorhynchus Mykiss Fair Mykiss

Oncorhynchus Miller Dorothy Lake 265.8 3,057 01-Jan-02 Oncorhynchus Clarkii Good Clarkii Clarkii

Total Surface Area (Acres) of

26 Lakes, 10 Acres or Larger

1,619.9

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 54 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Lakes in the Washington and Oregon Cascades and the Puget Sound lowlands are among the most dilute (contain the lowest concentrations of dissolved minerals, including the base cations) in the United States (Duncan et al. 1991). The low acid neutralizing capacity of Cascade lakes is second only to the inability of Sierra Nevada’s lakes to buffer acidic inputs (Landers et al. 1987). Individual Cascade lakes are the most diluted aquatic systems anywhere in the country (Eilers et al. 1990 In: Peterson et al. 1992).

The water quality of some of the lakes in the Washington Cascades, including some of the lakes in the upper Foss, differ relatively little from the water chemistry of current atmospheric wet deposition. Lake water quality is closely linked to the chemistry of precipitation and dry deposition in these lakes, and there is a strong basis of concern that the long-term integrity of lakes in the Cascades could be affected if atmospheric deposition contains pollutants (Peterson et al. 1992).

Sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium deposits in the form of rainfall, snowfall, or dry deposition all have the ability to acidify surface waters. Sulfate deposition is usually associated with long-term chronic effects, while nitrate and ammonium are often associated with episodic acidification due to rapid releases of nitrogen during snowmelt.

Total dissolved gas and fecal coliform are the only variables for which specific thresholds have been listed in the State water quality standards (Chapter 173-201A WAC 2006). No information was found regarding the analysis area, and there is no known source to cause high levels. Fecal coliform levels may seasonally be locally very elevated near high use camping areas of some of the most popular lakes (Dorothy, Trout, Heart, Angeline Lakes). However, it unlikely fecal coliform levels would ever not meet State water standards as the locations and design of campsites near wilderness lakes is highly regulated. The other variables listed under State water quality standards (dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pH, turbidity, toxic or radioactive materials, aesthetics) have not been determined for any of the listed State variable for any waterbody in the watershed.

The limited lake water quality data for the lakes of the analysis area indicates that some of the lakes in the Miller, and especially in the Foss, are diluted and oligotrophic, although some of the shallower lakes may be mesotrophic or even eutrophic (at least seasonally). Most lakes probably have both relatively low concentrations of nutrients, and very low acid neutralizing capacity. Some of the lakes within the two subwatersheds are known (via sampling) to support relatively productive phytoplankton and zooplankton communities (unpublished USDA FS reports 2002) that, in turn, supports healthy fish populations.

A major national survey in 1985 of randomly selected lakes within the western United States conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Landers et al. 1987) estimated that approximately 99 percent of the lakes in the western U.S. had pH values greater than 6.0 (7.0 is neutral). None of the relatively few lakes sampled within the Miller and Foss subwatersheds are known as acidified at this time, but several have virtually no acid neutralizing capacity, particularly some in the Necklace Valley of the Upper Foss River (North and South Tank Lakes,

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 55 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Fohn Lake, Tahl Lake). Any further significant acidic inputs from acid rain into these lakes would result in depressed pH levels, potentially low enough to negatively impact some species of the aquatic community. The current extremely low acid neutralizing capacity of some of the lakes sampled within the Miller and Foss makes their aquatic communities very susceptible to acidification from possible increases in wet and dry acid deposition in the future, however.

The assessment of the sensitivity of lakes to inputs of pollutants is not conducted solely based on water chemistry. Surveys of the populations of aquatic indicator species are also in use and being developed (Plafkin et al. 1989, Karr 1986, Karr 1994, Kerans and Karr 1994). The methods developed in some of the survey techniques were in the Washington Cascades, but no results specific to the Miller and Foss subwatersheds (Fore and Karr 1994, Plotnikoff 1992, Plotnikoff 1994).

The Forest Service has developed a guideline for setting limits of acceptable change in surface waters for Cascadian lakes (Peterson et al. 1992). This guideline provides suggested taxonomic groups of aquatic organisms (aquatic insects, amphibians, plankton, fish, mosses, and aquatic plants) that should be investigated for sensitive indicators of stress for atmospheric pollutants and characteristic populations. This guideline also lists suggested value ranges for nine water chemistry variables for four categories of water quality, along with rationales. Most of the variables and characteristic populations which Peterson et al. (1992) suggests to monitor require studying trends, however, and only North and South Tank Lakes and Fohn Lake have been sampled more than once, and none over more than a few year period.

Both the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Washington State Department of Ecology have monitored potential acidification of rain and snowfall to sensitive waters in the Cascades. Most of this work began in the mid 1980s, and a subset of that continues. Present levels of acid deposition in the Cascades are below those eastern North America. However, it is not known what levels are great enough to begin degrading water quality in lakes of the Cascades. One lake in the region (Summit Lake in the Clearwater Wilderness) appears to have become acidified since it was first sampled in the mid 1980s (Eilers 1996). Sampling of other at-risk lakes in the analysis area began in the 1990s and continues to present.

Between 1983 and 1990, the estimated wet deposition load of ions critical to contributing to acidification has shown no annual trends at a monitoring site at Stevens Pass several miles northeast of this area. In 1990, samplings taken at Stevens Pass, Snoqualmie Pass, and Mt. Rainier indicated that levels at Stevens Pass were slightly lower than those taken at Snoqualmie Pass or Mt. Rainier with one exception. Hydrogen ion concentrations at both Stevens and Snoqualmie were much higher than at Mt. Rainer. The air quality at Snoqualmie Pass is generally more similar to the urbanized Puget Sound area than Stevens Pass, due to its location and dominant air currents, but even sites as far away as Stevens Pass and Mount Rainier have recorded high-level acid causing particulates and precipitation. Table 9 shows the volume weighted average deposition rates for each of those stations for critical ions in 1990.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 56 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 9. 1990 Estimated critical ion deposition loads at three Washington Western Cascades Stations Species Stevens Snoqualmie Mt. Rainier Pass Pass (Paradise) SO4 (S) 2.54 3.51 2.96 SO4 (SO4) 7.62 10.54 8.88 NO3 (N) 0.94 1.41 1.45 NH4 (N) 0.30 0.30 0.19 H 1.55 2.32 0.27 Loading = kg/hectare-year. Modified from Duncan et al. 1991

Duncan et al. (1991) cites S and SO4 levels of 6.7 and 20.0 kg/hectare-year, respectively, as being critical (essentially, threshold) levels for aquatic receptors. Eilers et al. (1994), however, proposed a lower critical load level based on lake chemistry data available within Washington and Oregon National Parks along with other detailed studies conducted elsewhere. Eilers recommends an interim sulfur deposition guideline of about 3kg S/hectare-year and 9kg SO4/hectare-year to protect sensitive resources from adverse effects.

The highest average annual loading recorded over this brief period of record at Steven's Pass (1983 to 1990) occurred in 1990. During that year, levels for S and SO4 were estimated to be somewhat less than one-half that of the critical levels proposed by Duncan et al. (1991), but nearly exceeded the revised levels proposed by Eilers et al. (1994). Levels of S and SO4 at Snoqualmie Pass did exceed the recommended levels in 1990. In addition, Duncan cautions that there some error in how his estimates were calculated and those levels at Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes need to be verified by continued monitoring.

Ozone is another potential pollutant of concern for the Miller and Foss subwatersheds. It may an important influence on vegetation in the watershed due to expanding urban areas and the U.S. Highway 2 corridor. Areas of the Cascade Range east of Puget Sound are subject to episodes of high ozone concentration during periods of atmospheric stability (USDA FS 1997). The effect of these episodes is poorly quantified, but may produce substantial stress and affect the health of trees (Hogsett et al. 1989 In: Peterson et al. 1992). Average 24-hour ozone concentrations at levels higher than 80 ppb occur in Washington Cascades during the summer months (Eilers et al. 1994).

No studies of ozone levels were found to date for locations near the analysis area, so future monitoring is necessary to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of ozone exposure. Exposure of plants to elevated levels of ozone can produce several quantifiable effects, including visible injury, reduced photosynthetic capacity, increased respiration, premature leaf senescence, and reduced growth (Peterson et al. 1987, Reich and Amundson 1985 In: Peterson et al. 1992). The most immediate effect of elevated ozone on vegetation may be one or more of the following: foliar injury, decreased leaf longevity, reduced carbon gain of foliage, and reduced plant growth (Peterson et al. 1992).

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 57 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

The reference condition for deposition of critical air emissions is the last known samples at Stevens Pass, collected in 1990 (Duncan et al. 1990). Sulfate emissions in that year were about 7.6 kg/hectare-year at Stevens Pass, which nearly exceeded the suggested maximum standard of 9 kg/hectare-year set by Eilers et al. (1994). Emissions at Paradise on Mount Rainier (8.88) and Snoqualmie Pass (10.54) were even higher (see Table 9 above. It is unknown if regional and local sulfur oxide emissions are greater now that in 1990. It is, however, very likely that nitrogen oxide emissions are greater now due to significant increases in vehicular traffic over State Highway 2, and the predicted and foreseeable trend is for levels to continue to rise as the regional population continues to grow rapidly.

The reference condition selected for lake water quality is the current condition, largely because among those lakes with any water quality data is available, the data is mostly recent samples. Some of the alpine lakes sampled within the Miller and Foss subwatersheds are extremely diluted, with almost no acid neutralizing capacity. This makes them vulnerable to acidification from any incoming air emission pollutants. None of the lakes in the analysis area has had long enough sampling periods to establish any apparent trends, but some pH samples have been slightly acidic (varying around a pH of 6). In the future, lake water quality and the potential impacts from air emissions are one of the key issues identified in this watershed analysis.

Aquatic Habitats and Species The Miller River and Foss River are subwatersheds draining to the South Fork Skykomish River, a major tributary of the Skykomish River sub-basin. The Skykomish River is a Tier 1 Key Watershed (USDA FS and USDI BLM 1994), and provides habitats and refugia crucial to the conservation of anadromous salmon and bull trout (Map 3 Skykomish River Basin). Land-use management within the basin plays a critical role in the overall strategy of recovery efforts for at– risk fish populations, including the protection and recovery of Chinook, steelhead, and bull trout, which are currently listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act. The Miller and Foss subwatersheds (Map 4) provide spawning and rearing habitat for native Chinook, bull trout, steelhead, Coho, pink, chum, resident cutthroat, and rainbow trout. In their limiting factors analysis, the Washington State Conservation Commission (2002) specifically listed the Miller and Foss subwatersheds as areas of special protection interest.

Riparian Areas Using default Riparian Reserve widths as outlined in USDA FS and USDI BLM 1994, there is a total of 24,218 acres of Riparian Reserves in the Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis Area. The Miller subwatershed has 10,684 acres, or 44 percent, and the Foss subwatershed has 13,534 acres, or 56 percent (Map 17).

Riparian Conditions

Riparian (streamside) conditions are important for water quality protection. Streamside vegetation creates shade for temperature control, and filters overland flow to eliminate or reduce the amount of sediment that enters the stream. Large dead trees blow over or are undercut by the stream, becoming large woody material in the channel or on the floodplain. This large material creates Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 58 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis channel complexity and affects riparian, aquatic, and terrestrial habitat quality. It also distributes stream energy and reduces the amount of channel erosion. The root systems of vegetation bind soil particles together, reducing bank erosion and further decreasing the amount of sediment introduced to streams. Water quality was discussed in a previous section, and bank stability is discussed below with channel stability under Channel Conditions and Instream Habitat.

The lower mile of the Miller River was railroad-logged in the 1930s when 543 acres were harvested on private land; this has revegetated to dense stands of mixed conifers and hardwoods (USDA FS 1990). Another 330 acres were harvested on private land (including riparian areas along the lower couple of miles of the Miller) in the subsequent two decades (USDA FS 1990).

The riparian area of the Foss River was also railroad-logged in the 1930s, and USDA FS (1990) noted that logging involved yarding logs across the river through the riparian area (Map 9). A 2000 stream survey report of the Foss mainstem recorded riparian vegetation as small trees having an understory of alder and an overstory of western redcedar, western hemlock, and Douglas-fir (USDA FS 2000).

To analyze current and future conditions, vegetation structure classes were derived from wildlife habitat types, and then standard Riparian Reserve widths in GIS were applied to generate Map 18 to assess wood recruitment and shade. The habitat classes were grouped and labeled mature, immature, sapling, and small/non-forest. The mature group provides a good source of current as well as future wood to the channel, and provides adequate shade to the stream channels in the analysis area. The immature group will not be a good source of wood for several decades. This group may provide adequate shade to the smaller, but not to the larger streams. The sapling and small/non-forest groups also do not have trees large enough to provide useful wood for several decades, nor do they provide adequate shade.

Wood Recruitment Mature trees that predominantly border the Miller River upper mainstem and the West Fork and East Fork Miller River mainstems are presently providing good recruitment. Downstream of the Miller River Campground, where the Miller River leaves NFS land, the mainstem is bordered by trees in the immature group, which would provide wood recruitment decades in the future, but is not currently a valuable source.

In contrast, the Foss subwatershed is dominated by immature vegetation structure along the mainstem and lower mainstem of the west and east forks, which coincide with anadromous fish distribution (see page 62). The upper West Fork mainstem has a short reach of mature riparian vegetation structure from Trout Lake upstream for three-quarters of a mile, and several of the large lakes draining to the west fork retain at least some mature vegetation. These trees are in the higher elevation mountain hemlock and subalpine parkland zones (refer to the ecology section), where the trees do not grow as large and as fast as those adjacent to the mainstem and lower forks in the western hemlock zone. The upper East Fork Foss has mostly mature vegetation along the mainstem and many of the small feeder tributaries, but also an increasing amount of the small, non-forest group as the elevation increases toward Mt. Hinman and Hinman Glacier.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 59 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Both subwatersheds have roads that were constructed up the valley bottom, with additional roads continuing up the slopes in the Foss drainage. Roads interfere with the routing of large wood, which is often removed from the channel or cut into smaller lengths where roads (or trails) become blocked by down trees.

Recruitment of wood to the Miller River (except from slopes off NFS land) is likely to continue to be good, as restricted by streamside roads. Recruitment of wood to the Foss River is likely to be poor, but could improve decades in the future as immature trees adjacent to the channel grow and fall in (again, as restricted by roads).

Shade Again referring to the vegetation groupings, the sapling and small, non-forest groupings would not provide adequate shade, while the mature group would provide adequate shade to all stream channels. Except for the lowest three miles or so, the Miller River has adequate shade (Map 18). The orientation and relief of these subwatersheds provide some level of shade, as does the immature vegetation along the lower Miller mainstem. The channel here is wider and more braided than its steeper forks, however, and with the bedload deposition in the lower reaches causing flows to go below the subsurface, remaining surface flows and pocket pools are further subjected to additional solar exposure. The Foss is also somewhat shaded by its orientation, and the mainstem channels are provided some shade by the immature vegetation. Riparian harvest is not occurring on NFS land, and here, shade will likely increase over time as immature vegetation grows, except in the footprint of the floodplain roads.

Channel Conditions and Instream Habitat Most streams and salmonid populations in the Pacific Northwest have undergone extensive change in the last 150 years and often do not exhibit the productivity that was present under pristine conditions (Sedell and Luchessa 1982). Historically, wild fish stocks evolved with streams that were obstructed by fallen trees, beaver dams, and vegetation growing in and alongside the channels. Main river channels contained abundant gravels and fine sediments, and habitat complexity enhanced by multiple channels and sloughs and by scour around boulders and snags (Murphy and Meehan 1991).

Many climate scientists are predicting that temperatures in the Pacific Northwest will increase, leading to a shift in the timing of flows. As summarized and presented by Isaak (Isaak and others undated) and Mantua (2007), more precipitation would fall as rain, leading to an increase in winter flows. With smaller snowpacks in the spring, there would be lower base flows in the summer. Effects to channels and instream habitat could include additional scouring of redds in the winter due to increased peak, or spikes, in flows while eggs are in the gravels. Channels could become steeper, more incised, causing a decrease in wetted areas available to fish. Perennial headwater streams could become intermittent, further decreasing available surface waters. Quality and quantity of spawning and rearing habitats could be reduced, and the need for side channels as refuge habitats during floods could become that much more important.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 60 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

The mainstem Miller River is nearly 4 miles, with about 18 miles in the West Fork and East Fork, and another 70 miles from 30 smaller tributaries throughout the drainage. Most of the forks, emanating from the Alpine Lakes Wilderness, are steep, mountainous terrain with many falls and cascades. In the lower forks, the lowest mile of the west fork, and below a large barrier waterfall on the east fork, the gradient moderates, providing habitat for a variety of anadromous fish.

The mainstem Foss River has over 4 miles of mainstem, with about 15 lake- and glacially fed miles in the West Fork and East Fork Foss Rivers, plus another 65 miles from 25 smaller tributaries throughout this drainage. Similar to the Miller, the forks are mostly steep but provide habitat for anadromous fish in the lowest one to two miles.

Channel Stability As part of an effort to assess cumulative watershed effects, the MBS (USDA FS 1990) estimated in-channel stability for upper and lower watershed areas of the Miller River (mainstem and forks up to the wilderness boundary), and for the Foss Valley (mainstem and lower forks up to the Wilderness). An estimated 80 percent of the first and second-order channels in the upper Miller River, and an estimated 60 percent of the upper Foss, were scoured down to bedrock. Such scouring of the channels and the streambanks were evident on 1938 photos prior to harvesting and roading, and were still evident in the 1985 photos (USDA FS 1990). In the lower Miller and Foss Rivers, aerial photos showed little to no downcutting prior to logging (USDA FS 1990).

Using a system described by Pfankuch (1975), stability ratings from 1982 stream reach surveys (USDA FS 1982) indicate good to fair streambank stability along the Miller River mainstem, predominantly good stability in the lower half-mile of the West Fork Miller River, and good to fair stability along 3.7 miles of the East Fork Miller River. In the Foss River, the mainstem had a good to fair stability rating, the West Fork Foss was fair along the entire 0.65 mile surveyed, and the lower mile of the East Fork was mostly good but with several reaches of fair to poor ratings. Although these ratings are somewhat subjective and the scaling for good, fair, and poor conditions has not been calibrated, they are useful for documenting relative channel stability. Table 1 displays the percentage of each stream (mainstem, west, and east forks) rated as having good, fair, or poor stability in 1982.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 61 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 10. Stability in analysis area by percentage of streams from 1982 surveys Miller River Mainstem West Fork East Fork Combined Subwatershed Miller Good 48% 82% 48% 51% Fair 38% 18% 39% 37% Poor 14% 0% 13% 12% Foss River Mainstem West Fork East Fork Combined Subwatershed Foss Good 55% 0% 50% 47% Fair 45% 100% 24% 47% Poor 0% 0% 26% 6%

A 2003 stream survey report covering the Miller River (USDA FS 2003) noted fair stability ratings for the entire mainstem Miller River and lower four miles of the East Fork. The survey also noted unstable banks. The lower 0.73 mile of the mainstem Miller River averaged 24.8 percent unstable banks, with an overall average of 18.1 percent for the 3.7 miles surveyed. Unstable banks in the East Fork Miller ranged from 1.8-4.8 percent, averaging 3.3 percent for the 4.2 miles surveyed. The West Fork Miller was not surveyed in 2003. A survey of the Foss River in the year 2000 did not assess stability using these ratings, but did note the amount of unstable banks. While overall only 3.8 percent of the nearly 15 miles surveyed in the Foss subwatershed were unstable, the West Fork Foss had a 0.69-mile reach with 32.6 percent unstable banks (nearly 1,200 feet), and the lowest mile of the East Fork Foss had 13.3 percent unstable banks (more than 700 feet). Most of the reaches surveyed did not have unstable banks.

Woody Material An important attribute of stream and riparian corridors is the distribution and abundance of large woody material. In Pacific Northwest streams, large wood plays an important role by influencing channel morphology and thereby creating and enhancing fish habitat (Bisson and others 1987). Logs and rootwads enter stream channels due to bank cutting, blowdown, and mass wasting. The probability that a falling tree will enter a stream is a function of slope and distance from the channel in relation to tree height (McDade and others 1990). Pools formed in association with large wood provide deep, low-velocity habitat with cover beneficial for a variety of salmonid species and life history stages. Large wood often traps and stores sediment (affecting sediment transport rates), retains spawning gravels, functions to dissipate energy, and provides thermal and physical cover.

For the analysis area, data were compiled from Forest Service Region 6 Level II Stream Surveys in the Miller and Foss subwatersheds. The Miller River was surveyed in 1989 and 2003, and the Foss River was surveyed in 2000. The Forest Service categorized woody material into three size classes for westside forests (Forest Service 2003): small (diameter > 12 inches at 25 feet from the large end), medium (diameter >24 inches at 50 feet from the large end), and large (diameter > 36 inches at 50 feet from the large end).

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 62 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Figure 3 displays wood density as a combined quantity of all size classes per subwatershed, while also breaking out the value by class. For areas surveyed in the Miller River, the combined wood density was 50 pieces per mile, with 73 percent from the small size class. The overall density for the Foss system was 71 pieces per mile, with 76 percent from the small size class.

Figure 3. Wood density in the analysis area by subwatershed

Wood Density in Analysis Area

80

70 7.2 60 Large Wood

9.9 Medium Wood 50 2.7 Small Wood 10.6 40

30 53.7 Pieces per Mile Mile per Pieces 20 36.7 10

0 Miller River 2003 Foss River 2000

For streams with comparable gradients and widths, Wissmar and Beer (1994) found frequencies of 116-232 pieces of wood (with similar dimensions) per mile in combined managed and unmanaged areas within the nearby Beckler drainage. Ralph and others (1994) cited averages of 275-385 pieces per mile in both harvested and unharvested regions of northwestern Washington, while Bilby and Ward (1989) found frequencies ranging from 227 to 803 pieces per mile in relatively undisturbed regions of southwest Washington. Wood density in the watershed analysis area is low, with a particularly disproportionate share of wood in the small category. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, wood was removed from the lower mile of Miller River by Forest Service and King County to address flood control and prevention (MBS undated internal document).

From the 2003 survey, the mainstem Miller River did not have any wood in the large category, and less than two pieces per mile in the medium category. The East Fork Miller had just 4.5 large pieces per mile, 16.7 medium pieces per mile, and 39.3 small pieces per mile. The West Fork Miller was not surveyed in 2003. From the Foss River survey in 2000, mainstem wood density was 39 pieces per mile (70% small, 15% medium, 15% large), West Fork had 76 pieces per mile (75% small, 14% medium, 11% large), and East Fork had 90 pieces per mile (78% small, 14% medium, 8% large). While small wood can combine into jams to result more effectively in forming channel features such as deep pools, particularly in low-gradient reaches, individual pieces are more likely to transport downstream instead of providing stable habitat in-place.

Figure 4displays the overall wood density for the Miller River surveys, comparing 1989 to 2003 (using only data for comparable reaches). Overall density decreased from 63.4 total pieces per Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 63 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis mile to 50 pieces per mile (a 21% decrease). The large and medium size classes also decreased (by 26% and 50%, respectively), while the density of the small size class increased by 14 percent.

Figure 4. Wood density comparisons in Miller River, 1989 and 2003

Wood Density for Miller River Subw atershed

70

60 10.3

50 2.7 Large Wood 21.0 10.6 Medium Wood 40 Small Wood 30

20 Pieces per Mile Pieces 32.1 36.7 10

0 Miller River 1989 Miller River 2003

Figure 5 further breaks out these numbers to compare the Miller River mainstem changes and the East Fork between the 1989 and 2003 surveys (comparable reaches only). In the mainstem, the overall density and that of all size classes decreased, with the medium class decreasing by 89 percent and large class by 100 percent. In the East Fork, the total density remained practically unchanged, while the distribution shifted: density of large class decreased by 69 percent; medium and small increased by 57 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

Figure 5. Wood density compared in Miller River mainstem and East Fork, 1989 and 2003

Wood Density for Miller River Subwatershed

70

60 4.5

50 14.5 4.6 16.7 Large Wood 40 10.6 Medium Wood 15.1 30 1.60.0 Small Wood 20 34.8 39.3 Pieces per Mile per Pieces 28.4 26.5 10 0 Miller main 1989 Miller main 2003 East Fork 1989 East Fork 2003

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 64 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Pool habitat Pools provide important habitat for salmonid rearing, for low flow protection from predators and elevated water temperatures, for winter refuge, and for holding areas for spawning adults. Spawning occurs at pool-riffle transitions, and different fish species utilize pools throughout the year at varying life stages.

Pool frequency (number of pools over a given distance) is a key feature for salmonids and is inversely related to the low flow wetted width of a stream. Peter (1993) identified a range of natural conditions for pool frequency based upon a range of 10-50 feet wetted width, and noted that historical accounts (from 1900-1920) of pool frequencies in the Skykomish River sub-basin commonly ranged from 25-100 pools per mile. Peter (1993) further noted that stream surveys from 1980-1992 in the Skykomish River sub-basin ranged from 3-14 pools per mile.

Pool frequencies from more recent surveys in the analysis area were similarly low. Pools in the Miller River during 2003 ranged from 6.8 pools per mile in the mainstem to 13.5 pools per mile in the lower East Fork Miller. Both the total number of pools per mile and the number of pools greater than 3 feet in depth per mile increased between the 1989 and the 2003 surveys by 4.2 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, but equated to only 11.0 total pools per mile, and 9.6 pools greater than 3 feet per mile. Pools greater than 3 feet in depth are of particular value to anadromous fish for resting and rearing.

Pools in the Foss River during 2000 ranged from none in the lower mainstem to 12.2 pools per mile in a reach of the East Fork Foss. Most of the pools in the West Fork Foss, and all of the pools in the East Fork, were greater than 3 feet in depth, however.

Passage Barriers

Natural A series of falls in the lower South Fork Skykomish River historically prevented anadromous fish from migrating past these natural barriers and colonizing the upper South Fork Skykomish. Sunset Falls is an 88-foot combination of falls and cascades about two miles upstream from the confluence of the North and South Fork Skykomish River. Canyon Falls and Eagle Falls are within three miles upstream of Sunset Falls.

In 1958, Washington Department of Fisheries (now Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife) began operating a fishway trap-and-haul facility at Sunset Falls, and annually pass Chinook, Coho, pink, chum, sockeye, steelhead, bull trout, and cutthroat above the falls.

There are about 92 miles of habitat accessible to anadromous fish above Sunset Falls. The Miller and Foss Rivers are utilized by anadromous fish through the mainstems and into the forks up to natural gradient barriers, totaling about 16 miles.

Human-Related There are no known barriers in the Miller or Foss subwatersheds. Burn Creek in the Foss River subwatershed had barrier culverts replaced with bridges in 1997. During a spot spawner survey in

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 65 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

November 2004, Doyle (2004 e-mail) counted over 150 redds, with 100 adults still doing their thing.

Other and Unknown Other barriers include the lack of flows in lower Miller River mainstem. The excessive bedload in this low gradient reach leads to the river becoming intermittent, with parts of it flowing subsurface. These surface flows are critical to fish. Lower flows result in a water temperatures increase. Where flows are still on the surface, thermal barriers may exist. The source of this bedload is likely natural as well as related to human activities.

Lakes There are 204 lakes in the Miller and Foss subwatersheds. These lakes were formed primarily by glaciers and were naturally fishless. They range in size from a 350 square foot unnamed pond to 266-acre Dorothy Lake. Because most are located in the Alpine Lakes Wilderness, many lakes are forested, and retain mature vegetation along their banks.

Recreational use of these lakes is very high, and impacts include creation of social paths between campsites, trash, and deposition of undesirable nutrients. In the recent past, the Forest Service spent $300,000 at Dorothy Lake constructing a boardwalk to minimize trampling of sensitive shoreline vegetation, and addressing other related impacts. For similar reasons, a trail around Trout Lake was rerouted. While limited, available funds have been spent to address impacts at the highest use lakes, funding is insufficient. Without funds dedicated to education and enforcement, impacts will likely increase with increasing use, particularly as the human population in the Snohomish River basin is projected to increase by 59 percent between the years 2000 to 2030 (In: Snohomish Basin Salmon Recovery Forum 2005).

Aquatics Risk Assessment from Roads In 2002, the MBS completed a road analysis that included an assessment of the risk and consequences of road failure to aquatic resources. Nine aquatic risk factors were considered, along with six aquatic resource values, and factoring the consequences of failure, road segments were given overall aquatics ratings. Four road segments within the analysis area were given high overall aquatics risk ratings: Road 6800 (MP 2.5-8.2), Road 6830 (MP 0-6.0), Road 6846 (MP 2.7-3.5), and Road 6846-310. These road segments, totaling 14 miles (36% of the roads), should be considered for decommissioning. Another 10 miles (26%) were given a moderate risk to aquatics, and 14.8 miles (38%) were given a low risk to aquatics. Where access needs are high, drainage improvements or other work are likely needed to reduce the risk of failure. Also, refer to the roads section of this document.

Another indicator of the risk from roads to aquatic habitats is the number of intersections of roads with stream channels. Using a GIS map with stream and road layers both displayed, a visual count was made of the number of road-stream intersections in the analysis area. The Miller River subwatershed had 53 intersections, while the Foss River subwatershed had 105 plus another 12 on roads that were previously closed. The closed section may or may not have culverts in place.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 66 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Fish Species The Miller and Foss subwatersheds drain to the South Fork Skykomish River. The Skykomish River combines with the Snoqualmie River to form the Snohomish River. The Snohomish River system is the second-largest basin draining to Puget Sound, and contributes 16 percent of the anadromous fish production. This basin also supports the largest number of Coho spawners between Canada and the Columbia River, producing 25 to 50 percent of all Puget Sound Coho. Further, WDFW estimates that more than 20 percent of the wild Coho production in the Snohomish basin originates from Coho passed upstream of Sunset Falls (Koenings 2005). The contribution of Chinook and bull trout spawners above Sunset Falls was estimated in 2002 to be 15 percent and 10 percent, respectively (In: WSCC 2002).

Prior to 1958, when Washington Department of Fisheries (now Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife) began operating a fishway trap-and-haul facility at Sunset Falls on the South Fork Skykomish River, anadromous fish had not accessed the Miller and Foss subwatersheds. However, resident trout were likely present.

With changes in flow patterns and increased warming, fish could be affected in several ways, as summarized and presented by Isaak (Isaak and others, undated) and Mantua (2007). Productivity of fall spawners may be particularly reduced as winter floods scour their redds. With reduced rearing habitats, smaller fry would be produced. Warmer stream temperatures (from both warmer air and warmer groundwater) could lead to displacement of coldwater species such as bull trout, whose juveniles are even more susceptible to warmer temperatures than adults are. Timing of spawning and migration may also shift as timing of flows shift (some salmon are triggered to migrate and spawn based on when there are sufficient flows for these activities). If freshwater rearing is not as productive, fish may stay longer in fresh water, or could migrate as smaller smolts to saltwater, making them more susceptible to predation in the estuary. With anadromous fish such as salmon, steelhead and bull trout, ocean conditions also influence their growth and survival. Changes in ocean conditions can offset as well as magnify the effects to these fish in freshwater.

Fish with Special Status The Miller and Foss Rivers provide habitat for fish species listed as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act, listed as “Sensitive” by the Pacific Northwest Region of the Forest Service, and a number of other anadromous and resident fish species (see Table 11) with special status. A number of other resident fish species, including some non-native fish, also reside in these subwatersheds.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 67 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 11. Miller-Foss watershed analysis area summary of fish species of interest Species Status1 Utilization Associated with (Stock) Analysis Area Chinook NMFS—Listed threatened (3/99); Designated Miller River mainstem to RM 1.6; (Skykomish) critical habitat (9/05); Essential fish habitat Foss River and lower mile of both FS—MIS forks; same for critical habitat and SaSI 2002—Depressed EFH. Bull trout USFWS—Listed threatened (11/99); Presumed in Miller River up to forks (Skykomish) Designated critical habitat (9/05) at RM 3.6; known in Foss River and FS—MIS lower half-mile of East Fork Foss, SaSI 1998—Healthy suspected in lower 2 miles West Fork Foss. Critical habitat downstream in mainstem South Fork Skykomish River. Steelhead NMFS—Listed Threatened (5/07); critical Through mainstem Miller and into (South Fork habitat not yet designated east fork to barrier falls at RM 2.4; Skykomish FS—MIS (anadromous and resident rainbow) mainstem Foss plus the lower mile Summer) SaSI 2002—Healthy of East Fork Foss to barrier falls, and lower 2 miles of West Fork. Resident rainbow in Miller up to the forks at RM 3.6, and in mainstem Foss and West Fork in and downstream of Angeline Lake. Coho NMFS—Candidate; Species of Concern Through mainstem Miller and into (South Fork (7/95); Essential fish habitat East Fork to barrier falls at RM 2.4; Skykomish) FS–-Sensitive; MIS mainstem Foss plus the lower mile SaSI 2002—Healthy of East Fork to barrier falls, and lower mile of West Fork. Pink NMFS—Not Warranted (10/95); Essential fish Through mainstem Miller and into (Snohomish habitat East Fork to barrier falls at RM 2.4; odd-year) FS—MIS presumed in Foss River up to forks SaSI 2002—Healthy at RM 4.2 Chum NMFS—Not Warranted (3/98) Chum passed at Sunset Falls are (Skykomish FS—MIS presumed to use Foss River up to Fall) SaSI 2002—Healthy its forks at RM 4.2. Coastal NMFS–-Not Warranted (4/99) Anadromous below Sunset Falls; cutthroat FS–-Sensitive, MIS (anadromous and residents not known in Miller, but in (Snohomish) resident) the mainstem and West Fork Foss SaSI 2000—Unknown in and downstream of Angeline Lake. Cutthroat stocked in lakes not necessarily native coastal cutthroat. Sockeye NMFS—Not Warranted (Baker River stock in Small numbers of stray sockeye (Baker River Skagit; 3/99) have been trapped and hauled stock) FS—Sensitive (Baker River) around Sunset Falls on the South Fork Skykomish; utilization not suspected in analysis area. 1 NMFS—National Marine Fisheries Service; FS—Forest Service (USDA FS 1990 and USDA FS 2008); USFWS—United States Fish and Wildlife Service; SASSI—Washington State Salmon & Steelhead Stock Inventory (WDF and others 1993; WDFW and WWTT 1994); SaSI—Washington Salmonid Stock Inventory (WDFW 1998, 2000, 2002); MIS—Management Indicator Species (from USDA FS 1990).

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 68 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Equilibrium fish abundance means that spawning fish have maximized their use of available habitat and are merely replacing themselves in succeeding generations. As a reference for historic fish numbers, historic equilibrium abundance is used. For the Skykomish stock of Chinook, historic equilibrium abundance was estimated to be 51,000 spawners (Snohomish Basin Salmon Recovery Forum 2005). Data from fishery managers showed average numbers of (non-hatchery) Chinook returning to spawn for the period between 1999 and 2003 to be 1,755 fish. This calculates to only 3.4 percent. While Chinook may have declined disproportionately more than the other species, a similar negative trend from the past to the present is evident. This negative trend could begin to stabilize and reverse as concerted efforts to restore these fish populations through integrated management of habitat, harvest, and hatcheries occur. Because anadromous fish also spend part of their lives in marine and estuarine environments, fluctuating ocean conditions will also affect the number and condition of fish returning to the analysis area.

Recreational fishing for bull trout is allowed in the mainstem Skykomish below the forks with a minimum harvest size restriction to allow migratory fish at least one spawning opportunity. Since 1994, when WDFW began counting bull trout passed above Sunset Falls, their numbers increased up to a high of 128 passed in 2004. Since that time, numbers decreased, fluctuating down to 53 passed in 2007. One reason for this may be that since 2003, several large flood events occurred during late fall when eggs were in the gravels, scouring or burying redds. Continued channel instabilities may have reduced the quality and quantity of cover and forage for rearing juveniles. Bull trout can spawn more than once, so the effects from the large 2003 flood lasted several years, with succeeding floods cumulatively adding their effects.

Most of the bull trout passed above Sunset Falls are known to spawn in the Foss River, currently making the Foss important bull trout refugia. The range of bull trout above Sunset Falls may expand with time, however, and spawning adults have been noted in the Beckler River. Although habitats above Sunset Falls are not really part of the historical distribution of bull trout (or anadromous fish), the USFWS considers this area an extension of the Skykomish (and therefore Snohomish) core population of bull trout as they are Snohomish sub-basin fish, continue to pass downstream, and appear to be self-sustaining (personal communication, Chan 2008 e-mail).

Other Native and Non-Native Fish Species Other native resident fish known or suspected to use the Miller and Foss subwatersheds include mountain whitefish, sculpin species, three-spine stickleback, and dace. Non-native fish have been introduced to the watershed primarily through lake stocking. Those species include brook trout, brown trout, golden trout, and various non-native strains of cutthroat and rainbow. During a 2003 stream survey, Brook Trout were identified upstream of a barrier falls in the East Fork Miller River. They were not found downstream of this barrier, and it is unknown whether there are interactions between the brook trout and bull trout in this subwatershed.

Worthy to note is that while the fish passed above Sunset Falls are native to the sub-basin, they were not native to the Miller and Foss subwatersheds. With the stocking of lakes in the Miller and Foss, and possibly the South Fork Skykomish River itself, the influence of any or all fish

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 69 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis originating from outside the analysis area upon those that were naturally occurring within the Miller and Foss prior to these “introductions” is unknown.

Lakes The lakes in the analysis area were likely all naturally fishless. State fishery managers, along with recreational fishing groups, and perhaps individuals, were known to have stocked these lakes as early as 1957, and continue to stock many of these lakes for recreational fisheries. Of the lakes in the watershed analysis area 114 have been stocked, or salmon-type fish have been observed. Documentation shows brook trout as stocked or observed in two lakes, brown trout in one, and golden trout or a golden hybrids were stocked in thirteen others. Most of the remaining lakes were stocked with native and non-native strains of cutthroat (including Westslope and Yellowstone) and rainbow.

Records also exist of a fish hatchery that was once operated at Dorothy Lake (personal communications, Zimmerman and Swain). The Heritage section notes this was a trout hatchery, possibly operated by the King County Game Department. Additional information was not readily available for inclusion in this document.

Brook Trout are closely related to bull trout. Both are char from the same genus, and are known to hybridize to produce sterile offspring. When these species overlap, using the same spawning areas at the same time, a bull trout population can be displaced by brook trout. Telemetry studies found that most of the bull trout passed above Sunset Falls spawn in the Foss, and while no Brook Trout were observed during a stream survey in the year 2000, it is unknown whether (or the extent to which) these species may be competing or interbreeding. Monitoring of the bull trout population and potential brook trout interactions is needed but lacking.

Stocking of these lakes will continue in the future, though many members of the fishing clubs are aging and may not use as many of the headwater lakes as they do now or have in the past. Use of non-native fish to stock these lakes is declining, though they persist in the basin, sometimes as stunted populations.

Fisheries Limiting Factors Lack of quality spawning and rearing habitats are, and will become more of a limiting factor as fish populations above Sunset Falls increase and their distribution expands. Large wood to create channel complexity in lower gradient reaches, deep pools for cover and resting, riparian forest for shade and inputs of nutrients and forage, and clean spawning gravels and bedload with spaces to hide, are habitat features important for fish to fulfill their life cycles. Natural factors such as high stream gradients also limit the quality and quantity of fish habitats.

Excessive bedload and sediments, both natural and associated with roads, help to destabilize lower Miller River, where they build up and cause the stream to flow subsurface. Roads adjacent to the river in some reaches prevent lateral migration and formation of side channel habitat; these and upslope roads contribute sediments. Roads also impede the transport of trees and woody material to and through stream channels.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 70 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Spawning and rearing productivity in the Skykomish Forks have been attributed to low summer flows and high spring flood flows when early winter rain-on-snow events scour redds (WSCC 2002). With predictions for climate change, productivity is likely to continue to be limited, but low productivity may be offset as more habitats above Sunset Falls become utilized.

Stream temperatures in the Miller River have exceeded rearing requirements for bull trout, which require colder temperatures than salmon for spawning and rearing, and current temperatures may by limiting bull trout use of the Miller River. Terrestrial Ecosystem

Ecology and Vegetation The topography of the Miller and Foss subwatersheds is rugged and steep. Elevations range from about 900 feet to 6,300 feet in the Miller subwatershed, and about 1,000 feet to over 7,800 feet in the Foss. The upper elevations have been heavily glaciated many times throughout the Pleistocene period of geologic time, including about 40 major ice advances. In addition, an unknown number of minor ace advances have also occurred including what is now known as the Little Ice Age, from about 1350 to 1850. The landscape has many features that were carved by these glaciers, including cirque basins, glacial tarns, arêtes, and especially the large U-shaped valleys that dominate this landscape. These recent alpine glaciers began to recede early in the 18th century, and dramatically again in the 19th century to present day, leaving behind barren rock and rubble-laden lands scoured by glaciers and devoid of vegetation. These deglaciated areas are being colonized by pioneering species, including mosses, lichens, and various vascular plants.

The upper reaches of the Miller and the southwestern portion of the Foss watersheds are some of the wettest areas on the Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest, with over 200 inches of precipitation annually. This area in the Alpine Lakes Wilderness receives the brunt of storms coming from the Pacific Ocean. The geography to the southwest is such that the prevailing storm track hits this mountainous area and deposits heavy precipitation in the form of rain and snow. There is a strong precipitation gradient from the very wet area around Big Snow Mountain to the much drier area around Tonga Ridge. This is the result of the cumulative rainshadow effect in the leeward side of ridge systems, as the prevailing storms move across the mountains from the southwest to the northeast.

The Miller subwatershed is wetter than the Foss, but upper elevations in the Foss also receive large amounts of precipitation. There is an increase in precipitation of about 15 percent for every 1,000 feet increase in elevation. Snow pack recorded on ecology plots, ranged from 0 feet at low elevations to about 19 feet at around 5,000 feet elevation.

The temperature regime of the Miller subwatershed is colder than the Foss. However, values for mean annual temperature average 39.75oF in the Foss, in comparison to 40.98o F in the Miller. The average mean annual temperature is lower in the Foss, because a higher proportion of the area within this watershed occupies higher elevations in comparison to the Miller, and the Foss

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 71 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis has a slightly more continental climate. Temperature in this area decreases about 2.8 o F for every 1,000 feet increase in elevation.

Vegetation The potential natural vegetation and disturbance regimes of the Miller and Foss watersheds are driven by the moisture and temperature regimes. There are five vegetation zones represented in the analysis area, as described and mapped by the ecology program staff in Map 10 Potential Vegetation Zone (Henderson and others 1992, Henderson PNV Model).

Western Hemlock Zone The Western Hemlock Zone (WHZ) occupies the lower elevation forests and valley bottoms, and covers about 10 percent of the landscape in each watershed. The western hemlock zone is characterized by western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and western redcedar (Thuja plicata) as the climax species, and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) may occur as a long-lived seral species. Red alder communities may occur in lower elevations in riparian areas, and on moist sites following disturbance such as timber harvest or landslides. The WHZ occurs mostly below 2,000 feet elevation, but in the Foss may occur up to 3,000 feet in areas of lower precipitation, drier sites, and southerly aspects. Snowpack is sporadic during winter months at these lower elevations.

Moist-site plant associations characterize the WHZ in the Miller watershed. The most common are the Western Hemlock/Swordfern-Foamflower and Western Hemlock/Devil’s Club-Ladyfern plant associations (Henderson and others 1992). Western Hemlock/Swordfern-Foamflower occupies warm, moist, well-drained sites at lower elevations along lower slopes, toe slopes, and valley bottoms. It is one of the most productive plant associations in this national forest. The Western Hemlock/Devil’s Club-Ladyfern type occurs on wetter sites that are subirrigated and often poorly drained, as well as in riparian areas. These two plant associations also occur in the Foss; on mesic sites, Western Hemlock/Swordfern-Oregongrape, and Western Hemlock/Swordfern-Salal occur, which are common across the MBS, and have moderately high productivity. On drier sites with shallow soils, Western Hemlock/Salal-Oregongrape occurs, and at higher elevations, the Western Hemlock/Salal-Big Huckleberry type is found (Map 19 and Map 20).

Pacific Silver Fir Zone The Pacific Silver Fir Zone (PSFZ) occupies the middle band of forest vegetation, with its lower elevation boundary bordering the Western Hemlock Zone. The PSFZ occupies about 32 percent of the landscape in the Miller watershed and 26 percent of the landscape in the Foss (figure eco­ 1). This vegetation zone is characterized by cooler and wetter environments than are found the WHZ. The PSFZ occurs mostly between 2,000-3,500 feet elevation in the Miller watershed, and 2,200-3,800 feet elevation in the Foss. There is a persistent winter snowpack in the PSFZ, and it averages about six feet deep. Western hemlock and Pacific silver fir (Abies amabilis) are the dominant tree species, both in early seral and old-growth forests. Occasionally western redcedar or Alaska yellowcedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis) may occur. Douglas-fir occurs rarely, typically found in drier, warmer sites, or in older forests where it became established during a

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 72 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis warmer climatic period, and currently persists but is not regenerating. Noble fir (Abies procera) occurs on the drier sites on Tonga Ridge, but is near the northern limit of its distribution.

The most common plant associations in the PSFZ zone in the analysis area are the mesic to moist Alaska huckleberry (Vaccinium alaskaense) types (Henderson and others 1992). These include Silver Fir/Alaska Huckleberry-Queen’s Cup in the mesic sites, Silver Fir/Alaska Huckleberry- Foamflower in the moist sites, Silver Fir/Alaska Huckleberry-False Lily of the Valley in the moist sites and high precipitation areas of the Miller and upper Foss, Silver Fir/Alaska Huckleberry-Swordfern at lower elevations, and Silver Fir/Devil’s Club-Alaska Huckleberry in the wettest forested sites. In the rainshadow areas and drier sites of the Foss, plant associations include the Silver Fir/Alaska Huckleberry-Oregongrape and Silver Fir/Alaska Huckleberry, and the Silver Fir/Big Huckleberry type occurs at higher elevations.

The Mountain Hemlock Zone (MHZ) occupies the upper elevation band of continuous forest vegetation. Its lower elevation borders the PSFZ and its upper elevation transitions into subalpine parkland. The MHZ occupies about 32 percent of the Miller watershed and 23 percent of the Foss (Map 19). It occurs in a cold, wet, and snowy environment with a short growing season. The MHZ occurs mostly between 3,200-4,400 feet in the Miller and between 3,600-4,600 feet elevation in the Foss. There is a persistent and deep snowpack in the MHZ, and in some years, it may not melt out until mid July. Snowpack averages about 15 feet in the MHZ in these watersheds, and may accumulate to depths over 20 feet in some sites. Mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) and Pacific silver fir dominate the tree layer, both in young and old-stands. Western hemlock may occur in some stands, as well as Alaska yellowcedar.

The most common plant associations in the MHZ are the mesic to drier Alaska huckleberry and big huckleberry types (Henderson and others 1992). In the Miller and Foss, Mountain Hemlock/Alaska Huckleberry and Mountain Hemlock/Alaska Huckleberry-Queen’s Cup are common in mesic sites and high precipitation areas. In the Foss, Mountain Hemlock/Big Huckleberry-Alaska Huckleberry is more common, as big huckleberry (Vaccinium membranaceum) becomes more abundant in the drier areas at upper elevations in the Foss. The drier plant associations, Mountain Hemlock/Big Huckleberry and Mountain Hemlock/White Rhododendron-Big Huckleberry, also occur at upper elevations in the Foss watershed.

The Subalpine Parkland Zone occurs above the continuous forest zone, and below the Alpine Zone. The Subalpine Parkland zone occupies about 26 percent of the Miller watershed and 36 percent of the Foss. Snowpacks are deep, and some areas do not become snow free until mid­ summer. The Subalpine Parkland zone is characterized by tree islands and open meadows. The dominant tree species is mountain hemlock, but occasionally subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), silver fir, and Alaska yellowcedar may occur. Tree islands occur on higher ground and convexities where the snow melts out earliest. The meadows are typically dominated by heather species (Phyllodoce empetriformis and Cassiope mertensiana) and huckleberry (Vaccinium deliciosum) in areas that are next to become snow free. Fine scale patterns of plant communities respond to variations in aspect, slope, and shape, where convexities support drier site species and communities such as tree islands and heather-huckleberry communities. Topographic depressions

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 73 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis and concavities are the last sites to become free of snow, and support snowbank communities or wet sedge meadows dominated by black sedge (Carex nigricans).

There is limited area of the Alpine Zone within the Foss watershed, occupying about 5 percent of the landscape. It occurs at the highest elevations on Mt. Daniel and Mt. Hinman and near LaBohn Gap, in areas that are free from glaciers and permanent snowfields). The vegetation in this zone is typically poorly developed, as most of this area was recently de-glaciated, and has only been snow free for a few decades. Non-vascular species such as lichens and mosses dominate the vegetation in the alpine zone, along with Carex species, other graminoids and a few herbaceous or shrub species.

Vascular plant species diversity typically decreases with increase in elevation in the forested zones, and then increases in the Subalpine Parkland. Based on 127 ecology plots in the Foss, and 42 plots in the Miller, species richness (number of vascular plant species) was about the same in the WHZ and PSZ (128 species and 129 species in the Foss; 71 and 68 species in the Miller). The MHZ had the lowest species diversity with 73 species in the Foss and 79 in the Miller. The Subalpine Parkland Zone had 91 species in the Foss but only 37 in the Miller.

Monitoring The MBS Ecology Program maintains benchmark monitoring plots in the Miller and Foss watersheds. There are 34 permanent plots in the Foss and 19 in the Miller, representing different types of vegetation and age classes, including non-forest communities (Map 20). These plots are periodically measured to document and monitor stand growth and succession, mortality, stand structure, species diversity, and abundance. Sixteen of the plots in the Foss have been re- measured, but only three have been re-measured in the Miller.

Forest Service ecologists established air quality monitoring plots across the MBS in the 1990s. Lichens were collected and analyzed for their chemical composition as part of a forest-wide air quality monitoring program. Two plots were installed in the Alpine Lakes Wilderness in the Miller watershed in 1994. The mean percent sulfur value for the lichen Alectoria sarmentosa was 0.057 percent for the plots near Marlene Lake and Fools Gold Lake. This was the second highest value for mean percent sulfur content documented within the MBS, and was equal to the Railroad Grade site on the south side of Mt. Baker. Of the 57 MBS monitoring sites, the mean percent sulfur values were .044 percent (standard deviation [s.d.] 0.01) with the highest percentage recorded at the Snoqualmie Pass’s improved site at 0.068 percent, and the lowest value of 0.031 percent at Miner’s Ridge near Glacier Peak. The mean lead value in Alectoria sarmentosa for 56 sites within the MBS was 5.31 ppm (parts per million) (s.d. 3.18). Values for lead in Alectoria sarmentosa were 2.89 ppm near Fools Gold Lake, and 7.03 ppm near Marlene Lake. The highest value within the MBS was 14.16 ppm in the Pratt River watershed, and the minimum value was 1.68 ppm near Stevens Pass and near Green Mountain in the Suiattle watershed.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 74 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Wildland and Human-Caused Fires

Fire History Old forests occupy a majority of the land area within these two watersheds. Due to the high precipitation and relatively cool environment of the analysis area, these forests have experienced a long interval between wildland fires. Some stands are too old to determine their age. Outside of the Alpine Lakes Wilderness, there are young stands that regenerated from timber harvest activities in the western hemlock and silver fir zones. Wind disturbance has occurred in the Miller watershed, and in isolated patches in the Foss, in the form of blow-down trees and patches.

Before the year 1308, when the climate was believed to be warmer and drier, there were apparently fires that burned over the landscape. One of the earliest burning periods researchers have evidence of occurred about 1308. This was during the end of the Medieval Optimum climatic period, when it was thought to be much warmer and drier than today. Large areas of the MBS burned about that time, and many stands today date to about 700 years old. There was another burning period around 1508. The last big fire was in 1701, which has been fairly well documented in the North Cascades and Olympics. These were the three big burning periods in western Washington, and the 1701 fire is thought to have burned between 3-10 million acres in western Washington (Henderson and others 1989). Stands originating from fires during these three big burning periods occur in the Miller and Foss watersheds. In the 20th century, there were two important fires in the Foss that burned in 1906 and 1914, and a fire in 1980 that burned the in West Fork Miller drainage; however, these were much smaller than the large historic fires (Map 16).

Within the analysis area, some stands are so old there is no evidence of fire disturbance. These stands date to at least 1000-1200 a.d. and may be even older. They represent 11,000 acres or 37 percent of the Miller watershed, and 11,500 acres of 32 percent of the Foss watershed.

The Miller subwatershed has about half of its area (63 percent) in stands older than 700 years, and some forests may be more than 1,000 years old (Map 21). In these stands, the stand age is thought to be older than the age of the oldest trees. Seventy-four percent of the Miller is older than 300 years. About 4 percent (1,180 acres) of the subwatershed has burned since the late 1800s, in fires in 1890, 1935, and 1988. In addition, there are 540 acres in the Miller that date to 1910 (MBS TRI layer), but it is unknown at this time if this stand originated from logging or fire. A site visit will confirm the age and origin of this stand. Most of the older forests occur at higher elevations in the PSFZ and MHZ, where 83 percent of these upper elevation forest zones are older than 300 years, and about 76 percent are older than 700 years. Of the approximately 3,000 acres in the WHZ, 55 percent is older that 300 years, and 30 percent is older than 700 years. The Subalpine Parkland Zone typically does not burn (Map 16).

The Foss subwatershed, being somewhat drier and warmer than the Miller, has had more of a burning history, both historically and more recently. Less than half (47 percent) of the Foss subwatershed is older than 700 years, and 52 percent is older than 300 years. However, about 18 percent of the Foss has burned since 1900, mostly in two fires, 1906 (about 4,480 acres) and 1914 Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 75 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

(about 1,920 acres). Less than 17 percent of the WHZ is older than 300 years. Upper elevation forests of the PSFZ and MHZ have a higher percentage of older forests, but less than what occurs in the Miller. About 56 percent of the PSFZ is older than 300 years, with 45 percent older than 700 years. About two-thirds of the Mountain Hemlock Zone is older than 700 years, and over 70 percent is older than 300 years.

Fire Disturbance Large, catastrophic vegetation disturbances, while infrequent, are a primary agent of change over time in the Miller-Foss subwatershed, caused by floods, volcanic eruptions, powerful wind events, as well as large wildfires. A large fire is defined as 100 acres or larger in terms of this watershed assessment (Map 16).

Since the 1700s large fire episode, no evidence suggests a return of landscape-scale wildland fire events in western Washington. Initiation of logging and mining activities in the 1870s and railroad activities in the 1880s provided for an increase in human-caused ignitions and there were very active fire seasons in the decades from 1910-1920 and 1920-1930.

Individual fire records, from 1952 to present, contain 22 statistical wildfires that have occurred in the Miller-Foss subwatersheds (Map 22).

Fuel Effects The influence of fine fuels such as litter, duff, and grasses, and small woody fuels (<3 inches diameter) is felt the most on spread rate and intensity of wildfires. These fuels are used in fire behavior models developed for predicting the fire behavior of the initiating fire (Rothermel 1983). Fine fuel loading on the surface is generally low in a typical forest site. However, windthrow, avalanche damage, timber harvest residue, and insect/disease mortality can generate very high fine fuel loading, which increases the potential for a large fire.

Coarse woody debris (>3 inches diameter) has little influence on spread and intensity of the initiating fire; however, it can contribute to development of large fires and high fire severity. Fire persistence, resistance-to-control, and burnout time (affecting firefighter and public safety, soil heating, and tree mortality) are significantly influenced by loading, size, and decay state of large woody fuel (Brown and others 2001). Fire managers generally accept that most, but not all, of the snags will be on the ground within 10-30 years after an intense fire, creating a future fire and fuels management concern. Of the three components affecting wildland fire behavior (fuels, weather, and topography), only fuels can be manipulated by management.

Much of the Miller-Foss watershed lacks road access or has low road densities, and suppression resources must either hike in or utilize aircraft to gain access. Often, in these remote areas, steep slopes limit direct attack strategies, which can require an indirect attack strategy leading to larger fire size.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 76 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Timber and Vegetation

Reference Conditions

Skykomish Sub-Basin Portions of the Miller and Foss subwatersheds vegetation reference is discussed in the Subregional Ecological Assessment (REAP) for Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest (USDA FS 1993).

Table 12 displays the minimums and maximums percent area forest structural stage in the Skykomish sub-basin along with current conditions in the Miller and Foss subwatersheds.

Timber Harvest History The earliest records of timber harvest in the Foss date back to the 1930s (see Map 9). There appears to be limited area of partial harvest that may have occurred earlier, but records are not precise. About 3,000 acres have been harvested in the Foss, which represents eight percent of the watershed, with most of the activity occurring in the lower portion of the watershed. In the Foss, the acres of harvest are similar in the Western Hemlock Zone (WHZ) (1,454) and Pacific Silver Fir Zone (PSFZ) (1,400), according to the MBS map of modeled potential vegetation zones. In addition, 88 acres were harvested in the MHZ. In the 1940s, most of the harvest occurred at lower elevations in the WHZ. In later decades, more of the harvest occurred at higher elevation in the PSFZ, particularly from the 1960s through the 1980s.

Very little timber harvest has occurred in the Miller River subwatershed making it one of the pristine watersheds in the MBS. According to forest records, harvest activities in the Miller began in the 1960s and most of the cutting occurred in that decade. There were 38 acres of salvage harvest in the 1980s. Approximately 200 acres have been harvested in the Miller, less than one percent of the watershed. Of the total harvest acres, approximately 80 occurred in the WHZ and another 120 in the PSFZ.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 77 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 12. Historical proportion of Miller and Foss forest structure by sub-basin and current proportions of forest structure by subwatersheds Early Successional Current for Historical Historical Series Analysis Maximum Minimum Area WH 67% 0% 11% PSF 36% 0% 11% MH 29% 0% 20% ALL 39% 0% 10% Mid Successional Current for Historical Historical Series Analysis Maximum Minimum Area WH 67% 0% 54% PSF 42% 6% 41% MH 34% 0% 11% ALL 42% 5% 20% Late Successional Single Story Current for Historical Historical Series Analysis Maximum Minimum Area WH 71% 0% 22% PSF 6% 0% 1% MH 6% 0% 0% ALL 20% 0% 25% Late Successional Multi-Story Current for Historical Historical Series Analysis Maximum Minimum Area WH 42% 29% 13% PSF 64% 59% 30% MH 71% 67% 67% ALL 62% 56% 28%

Due to the timber harvesting, which has fragmented most of the stands in the western hemlock zone as well as some in the silver fir zone, the watershed has less multistoried late successional forests than previously (Peter 1993).

Tree Species Composition In 1902, Plummer assessed the western Cascades describing the tree species in the Skykomish drainage in percentage of trees or area.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 78 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 13. Timber type and forest conditions as described by Plummer—Skykomish drainage (Plummer 1902) Species Percent Red fir (Douglas-fir) 35% Matrix land is the designation in the Mertens hemlock (western hemlock) 35% Red cedar (western redcedar) 10% Northwest Forest Plan ROD that is Lovely fir (Pacific silver fir) 10% consistent with intensive timber White fir (grand fir) 3% management. A total of 274 acres of Englemann spruce 2% Subalpine fir, Patton hemlock, relatively small and separate parcels of 5% White-bark pine Matrix land allocation exist within the watersheds, with 94 acres within the Foss and 181 acres within the Miller subwatershed. The majority of matrix in the region is north of the watershed analysis area in the Alpine Lakes Management Area. Due to this small acreage and scattered distribution of Matrix lands, it is difficult to manage these Matrix lands for timber production within the subwatersheds.

Table 14. Matrix land allocations in the Miller and Foss subwatersheds Merged Land Analyzing these stands for their harvest suitability reveals that 191 Acres Allocations acres of the 274 are unsuitable for timber harvest due to older stand (MLAs) ages and several areas of matrix are within riparian reserves. For both 5B 131 of these reasons, consideration for timber harvest is unlikely. GF 50 SF 8 SF5A 85 The remaining 83 acres of matrix that do have features lending themselves to harvest such as high density and ages ranging from 38 to 66 years, are small and separated from each other. Of these, 40 acres are inside the Miller subwatershed and 43 acres are located within the Foss subwatershed.

Red alder does not cover a large proportion of the area in the Miller and Foss subwatersheds, however, some aging red alder stands are close to reaching the age point of beginning to break down (approximately 80 years or older).

Of the stands identified by aerial photo interpretation as potentially having large components of red alder, 847 acres are estimated to be at least 80 years old. The Miller subwatershed contains 537 acres, with the Foss at 310 acres. In alder stands without a conifer component, these stands may result in brush species occupying the site over time, if regeneration of tree species is foregone. The remaining red alder stands range in age from 20 to 60 years. There are around 5,000 acres in this class. Red alder species found in these two watersheds can mostly be found in the LSR. Over time, some treatment may be necessary to avoid negatively affecting the LSR habitat through the loss of trees along streams and in upland forest. When considering potential treatment, the Miller subwatershed includes 542 acres, while the Foss subwatershed has 931 acres of alder.

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Current Conditions Pacific silver fir (Abies amabilis) is the predominant major species in the subwatersheds. Mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) are almost equal in abundance, while Douglas-fir, noble fir (Abies procera) and red alder (Alnus rubra) together make up only five percent of the major species composition in the Miller and Foss watersheds.

Table 15. Acres of harvest from MBS TRI records database Acres Acres Subwatershed Acres Thinned Harvested Reforested Foss River 2,943 1,517 483 Miller River 202 202 69

Figure 6. Miller-Foss subwatershed major species composition of trees (MBS TRI data). Just over 3,000 acres were harvested between the years 1935 55% Silver fir and 1993, mainly in Douglas-fir the form of 3% 2% Red alder regeneration (clearcut) Western Hemlock harvests. Noble fir Most all of the 19 % Mountain Hemlock 21% 0% harvested acres are currently in the 80 to 100 percent canopy cover class, indicating full stocking in those stands. Planting in 1,977 acres of the stand probably restored it to a high level of stocking. Commonly, stands were planted with close spacing and precommercially thinned later in their development. The current database shows 966 acres of the Foss subwatershed with no record of planting—it is assumed the trees are naturally regenerated.

Of these 1,517 acres in the subwatersheds, there are only 712 acres reported as precommercially thinned. Several hundred acres may need thinning, however, that information has not been field- verified.

Approximately 3,000 acres have been commercially harvested in NFS land within the two watersheds, just over 2,800 acres in the Foss and only 200 acres in the Miller.

Late Successional Reserves between the ages of 30 and 80 years take in approximately 2,779 acres (455 in the Miller and 2,322 in the Foss). Aerial photos show that these stands have a homogeneous appearance. If thinning would benefit wildlife habitat, these stands could possibly be thinned to create breaks in the single canopy layer with gaps. Some trees in the intermediate and co-dominant layers could be removed to increase light to the forest floor and encourage the

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 80 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis establishment of new layers of trees, understory shrubs, and forbs. Each stand would require a field assessment and coordination with wildlife biologist before undertaking this approach.

Climate Change Climate has been variable over the millennia, with alternating warm, cold, wet, and dry periods, and constantly changes through time. Ecology plot data across the MBS have documented shifting ranges of tree species and vegetation zones with changes in climate over the last 700­ 1,000 years, based on tree ages and elevations. Ecologists have documented Douglas-fir trees more than 700 years old in the MHZ that became established during a warmer period near the end of the Medieval Optimum.

These areas were likely not MHZ when these trees were established, yet Douglas-fir persists in these environments today, although they are not reproducing at these higher elevations. Likewise, the PSFZ shifted downslope in elevation starting about 600 years ago near the beginning of the Little Ice Age, and has continued to expand its range downward. Silver fir persists to this day at these lower elevations, and is successfully reproducing there. Plot data from the last 30 years show no evidence of the PSFZ moving upslope in elevation. It is suggested that higher levels of carbon dioxide are increasing the water efficiency of silver fir, and contribute to the persistence of these trees at lower elevation sites.

A remote weather station records temperature on San Juan Hill in the Beckler drainage to the north, at 4,200 feet elevation in the MHZ. This data logger was installed in 1991, and records air and soil temperatures. Based on these data, mean annual temperatures have remained constant, although with a slight decrease since 1991.

Species of Interest

Sensitive Species No systematic surveys for sensitive species have occurred in the analysis area. Available information is from opportunistic sightings, anecdotal observations, or from limited botanical surveys in project areas.

All documented sensitive species locations occur in the Miller watershed, and none documented in the Foss. The seven species on the Regional Forester’s Sensitive Species List documented in the Miller watershed are vascular plant species Lycopodium dendroideum, Galium kamtschaticum, and Carex pauciflora; lichen species Pseudocyphellaria rainierensis, Nephroma bellum and Usnea longissima; and the moss Schistostega pennata.

Lycopodium dendroideum is known to be in two locations in the Miller watershed. Lycopodium dendroideum occurs at lower elevations, and is known to exist in only a few isolated MBS sites. It typically occurs at lower elevations, associated with conifers or hardwoods in moss covered talus or rocky habitats. Several sightings of sensitive vascular plants and lichen species occur near Dorothy Lake. Carex pauciflora occurs in a wetland habitat, and Galium kamtschaticum in a moist old forest in the Silver fir/Alaska Huckleberry-Devil’s Club plant association.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 81 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Pseudocyphellaria rainierensis occurs in old-growth silver fir forest on the trail to Dorothy Lake, and on vine maple in the lower Miller. Nephroma bellum and Usnea longissima occur at lower elevations in the Miller watershed. Schistostega pennata was documented on a western hemlock windthrow in the lower Miller.

Galium kamtschaticum has a fairly broad distribution across the northern part of the MBS, but is restricted to moist and wet habitats within the Silver Fir zone. This species is a sensitive species, but its populations do not appear to be at risk.

Pseudocyphellaria rainierensis is a nitrogen-fixing foliose lichen and in the North Cascades is typically found in very old silver fir forests. The typical habitat of Pseudocyphellaria rainierensis is mesic to moist, old-growth Pacific Silver Fir/Alaska Huckleberry (Vaccinium alaskaense) forests more than 500 years old. Generally, these sites are in wet climatic areas with high precipitation, and the forests are characterized by high humidity and cool temperatures. In these areas, P. rainierensis is an epiphyte on the lower boles of Pacific silver fir. The species is sporadic in its distribution, and there is some evidence that it is dispersal limited, and sensitive to air pollution. In the mid 1990s, it was only known from four sites within the MBS, but species habitat modeling and targeted surveys by the ecology program have located about 30 new sites.

Nephroma bellum is a nitrogen-fixing foliose lichen with a broad geographical and ecological distribution, but has been documented in only a few sites within the MBS. It is found most commonly in riparian habitats, but may also occur also in upland sites, in young-growth and old stands, mostly in lower precipitation areas.

Usnea longissima has a broad geographic but sporadic distribution within the MBS. It is typically associated with riparian areas and valley bottoms, where it can occur on conifers or hardwood trees. It may be locally abundant in some areas. This species is also thought to be sensitive to air pollution, as are the nitrogen-fixing lichens. Usnea longissima has experienced serious population declines and extirpation in parts of Europe, reportedly from air pollution and harvest of the lichen.

Schistostega pennata is typically found on mineral soil associated with windthrow. It can be found in moist soil in sheltered cool, moist habitats near the base of an upturned rootwad. It has a fairly broad geographic distribution, and occurs in a variety of habitats. It appears to be able to disperse across the landscape and colonize ephemeral and somewhat randomly distributed habitats that result from windthrow events.

A recently discovered moss species, Grimmia lesherae, known from only three locations in the world, is found in the upper reaches of the Foss watershed at Jade Lake. This species was discovered in the late 1990s on Snowking Mountain in the northern Glacier Peak Wilderness area (Greven 2003), and the population at Jade Lake is the only other known location in the Pacific Northwest. The species has also been collected from a site at 9,000 foot elevation on Mt. Shasta in California. This is a species of interest but does not currently have Regional Forester’s status as sensitive.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 82 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Currently, there are no concerns about the persistence of the sensitive species in the analysis area, and the populations are not perceived to be at risk. Extensive management projects are not occurring in the area, nor are there other specific activities that may threaten populations.

Non-native species and noxious weeds could pose a threat to the native plant communities within the analysis area. Non-native species may become established in plant communities and change the species composition, modify plant community structure, compete with native species, and interfere or alter ecosystem processes. U.S. Highway 2, Forest Service roads, and trails provide corridors for migration of species. Backcountry users, including horses, hikers, and bicyclists provide a means for transport of non-native propagules (seeds or other reproductive structures) into more remote areas, where they may be dispersed and subsequently established. Dispersal corridors can be from the Foss or Miller watersheds, or the Middle Fork Snoqualmie.

Several non-native species are well established in the Highway 2 corridor in the vicinity of the analysis area. These species include herb Robert or “Stinky Bob” (Geranium robertianum), knotweed (Polygonum cuspidatum, P. sachalinense, Polygonum xbohemicum), and orange hawkweed (Hieracium aurantiacum). Yellow hawkweed (Hieracium caespitosum) is a recent invader along U.S. Highway 2, but has the potential to spread into the analysis area. There is potential for additional non-native species to become established along this major east-west migration corridor, which may provide a seed source for subsequent dispersal into the watersheds.

Surveys of non-native species and noxious weeds have not occurred systematically in the analysis area, and most information to date is anecdotal. Populations of herb Robert occur in the lower elevations of the Foss watershed along Road 68, and in the lower elevations of the Miller watershed, associated with roads, and disturbed areas. In some areas, Herb Robert has invaded native forest habitat, as it is more shade tolerant than most noxious weeds, and it can successfully compete in some sites with the native vegetation. Evidence shows where hawkweeds become established in montane/subalpine meadows, they can be very invasive. Knotweeds are very aggressive and can form dense patches in riparian areas, moist habitats, and roadside ditches.

These four non-native species are classified as Class B Noxious Weeds by the Washington State Weed Control Board, and their distribution is limited to portions of Washington State. Both the yellow and orange hawkweeds have been designated for control in the analysis area, with the primary goal to prevent new infestations in these areas. The knotweed and herb Robert are already well established, so the primary goal is to contain these weeds to prevent them from spreading into uninfested areas. Under certain conditions, these four aggressive species may out compete some associated native species.

Wildlife

Late-Successional Habitat Second only to designated wilderness, the Late-Successional Reserve (LSR) is a dominant land allocation in the Miller-Foss watershed analysis area (approximately 11,878 LSR acres or 21.3%,

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 83 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis in comparison to 50,619 wilderness acres or 78.1%). The LSR along with 1,706 acres of private lands are located at the northern border of the analysis area, forming a connective corridor between the Sky Forks and Beckler Watersheds. LSRs were designated in the 1994 ROD to maintain functional, interactive, late-successional, and old-growth forest ecosystems (USDA FS 1994).

The condition of late-successional forest habitat has been identified as an issue in this analysis area as it relates to the recovery of Federally listed species (Table 16) and their respective designated critical habitat. Two threatened avian species, the northern spotted owl and marbled murrelet, are dependent on quality late-successional forest habitat for their conservation. Under current forest planning, the LSR is to provide habitat for late-successional forest-associated flora and fauna species.

Forest management is the primary activity that altered the amount, distribution, and condition of forest habitat, resulting in even-aged managed forests and fragmentation of the remaining late- successional habitat. To a lesser extent, human activities resulting from past forest management, such as road access, has had varying effects to habitats, both beneficial and detrimental to species conservation. Habitat conservation may include benefits to some Forest Service sensitive species (Table 17) and Forest Plan management indicator species (Table 18).

Terrestrial Wildlife The Miller-Foss River analysis area is biologically diverse as measured by the number of different vegetative communities, or habitats, identified in the landscape. The variation in elevation, precipitation, geomorphology, disturbance, and land-use history contribute to the habitat and species diversity.

The area contains unique habitats, from lowland U-shaped river bottoms, to high elevation sub alpine, treeless rock, open meadows, and montane riparian habitats. These habitats represent occupied and potential habitat for rare or uncommon species of wildlife. The diversity of unique habitats and associated special emphasis species has been identified as an issue due to the effects of fire suppression, timber harvest, roading, and other human activities on the distribution and condition of unique habitats within the analysis area.

This analysis will evaluate habitats in the watershed and recommend strategies to manage for them over time.

Current Conditions

Late-Successional Habitat Within the Miller-Foss Analysis Area, there are a variety of habitat types and stages of development (successional stages). The amount, distribution, and condition of late-successional forest (defined as late mature and old-growth in the Forest Plan) in the landscape has been identified as an issue due to loss of older forest through timber harvest, road building, and wildfire. The condition of forested stands, as influenced by fire suppression and increased fuel

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 84 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis levels, may lead to increased risk of loss from catastrophic fire. Loss of late-successional forest habitat and the less obvious isolation of existing habitat patches are aspects of late-successional forest fragmentation that may threaten the viability of wildlife species dependent on older forests.

Within the range of the northern spotted owl (Cascade Range within Washington, Oregon, and northern California), the loss and fragmentation of habitat for late-successional Forest related species has been addressed through Standards and Guidelines (USDA FS 1994) including late- successional reserves (LSRs). Habitat loss also affects the marbled murrelet.

This section addresses the distribution and condition of late-successional forest habitat within LSRs as well as that outside LSRs that is important for connectivity between LSRs.

The Miller sub-basin contains approximately 10 percent western hemlock, 32 percent Pacific silver fir, 32 percent mountain hemlock, and 10 percent subalpine. The Foss sub-basin contains approximately 10 percent western hemlock, 26 percent Pacific silver fir, 23 percent mountain hemlock, and 10 percent subalpine. Of that, approximately 455 acres of the Miller, and 2,322 acres of the Foss are considered LSR. Forested vegetation types range from subalpine conifer and true fir at higher elevations to mixed conifer stands dominated by Douglas-fir, western hemlock, Pacific silver fir at mid elevations (1,500 to 5,500 feet). Red alder and cottonwood intermingled with conifers form the primary riparian forests in the low elevation valley bottoms.

Managed Vegetation Managed vegetative stands (harvested) account for approximately 27 percent (3,200 acres) of the analysis area. Early successional stands occur in all forest types, with the majority of plantations less than 80 years old in the western hemlock zone. Plantations tend to be mostly even-aged with very little structural diversity. As the stands mature, they tend to become very dense with a slowing of growth. Without subsequent treatment such as thinning, plantations greater than 20-30 years old, under some conditions, may become a fire risk and may lose potential structural diversity for nesting spotted owls and marbled murrelets. Forest management activities have influenced late-successional forest habitats in the analysis area. Timber harvest and road building have accounted for most of the management that has affected vegetation and influenced the amount of late-successional habitat found today. Most timber harvest on private and Forest Service managed lands focused on late-successional. Roughly, 63,166 acres (97.5% of land within the analysis area is NFS land) have been clearcut or partial cut through timber harvest salvage since the 1930s. In addition, there are approximately 71.1 miles of roads (Forest Service, private, state, county, and unclassified) in this analysis area. Clearing through timber harvest and road building on NFS lands has reduced the amount of late-successional habitat by roughly 27 percent and fragmented small to larger blocks of habitat.

Timber harvest on private land has also reduced the amount of late-successional forest. Private lands occupy 0.5 percent of the (non-wilderness) analysis area (365 acres).The majority of the private land base is commercial timberland and developments. Management of these lands focuses on maximum production of forest products. It can be expected that the majority of private commercial timber ground will be in an early to mid-successional stage of development, with

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 85 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis possible pockets of older forest throughout. For the most part, the remainder of the private commercial ground has been harvested to some extent using partial cut, sanitation, salvage, or thinning prescriptions, (complete timber harvest data for private forest lands is not available; acres of harvest are estimated from the forest Geographic Information System (GIS) vegetation types).

Site Capability Based on existing vegetation and areas identified as lower elevation (below 3,500 feet) sites in the Forest Plan, it is roughly estimated that 20 percent of the Miller-Foss watershed analysis area, within the Forest boundary, is capable of supporting late-successional coniferous habitat in the western hemlock and Pacific silver fir zone. This zone, when found in old-growth condition, provides nesting, roosting, and foraging habitat for the federally listed northern spotted owl, and marbled murrelet nesting habitat. The remaining acres within the analysis area contain, above 3,500 feet elevation, montane tree and shrub communities, meadow complexes, and non- vegetated areas (rock outcrops and water). Although the grizzly bear and gray wolf, which are federally listed species, may occur in all elevation bands and coniferous habitat zones, high elevation areas provide seasonal security habitat and food sources.

Vegetative Condition Timber harvest, road building, fire suppression, and natural disturbance events have affected low elevation, old-growth habitat within the analysis area (see Timber and Vegetation). Early and mid-successional forests occupy less than approximately 30 percent of the land base, much of which is a result of timber harvest and associated activities. Early and mid-successional stands (pole and early mature stands) are important for developing into future late-successional characteristics; reducing stand densities is important if continued development of late- successional habitat is desired in the future. High stand densities have questionable ability to provide LSRs with optimal habitat characteristics. Overstocking may be a factor for potential catastrophic wildland fires.

Within LSRs, drainages that contain a high proportion of dense, early, and mid-successional habitat include the Miller and Foss Rivers and their sub-drainages. Late-successional and mid- successional conditions account for approximately 20 percent of the capable land base in the entire Miller-Foss LSR.

The fires occurrence in the LSR area in the past 10 years averages 20.2 fires per year—in the future, approximately 2.2 fires can be expected within the LSR each year. The Fire History Map shows an extensive look at past fire history.

Connectivity and Barriers Wildlife dispersal across the landscape is important for most if not all wildlife to help facilitate species viability. Blocks of late successional habitat arranged in space, but not necessarily physically connected, are LSR management objectives. Across the range of the northern spotted owl, the Forest Plan, as amended (USDA FS, USDI BLM 1994) defines connectivity in terms of wildlife and plants flowing in time and space as a mechanism for long-term biological survival.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 86 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Riparian reserves, management prescriptions, and administratively withdrawn areas also provide the management objectives for connectivity.

The distance between LSRs (this analysis area and the Sky Forks and Beckler LSRs) averages 12 miles. This may be rated as fair. The inclusion of an extensive amount of the Alpine Lakes Wilderness is this analysis area is rated as good.

Dispersal habitat is defined as stands meeting the 11-40 rule (ISC 1990); that is, forest stands with equal or greater than 11 inches dbh and equal or greater than 40 percent canopy closure. Much of the analysis probably meets or exceeds these criteria for dispersal, and is deemed adequate. Dispersal habitat conditions on private lands are unknown and may be potential barriers to dispersal. Due to this, dispersal habitat as well as the amount of late-successional habitat connecting LSRs becomes important. Slow or low mobility species such as salamanders and mollusks may be faced with isolation without the means for dispersal, especially due to roads and waterways as potential barriers.

Roads contribute to fragmentation of habitat as well as providing a travel corridor for some species such as ungulates and carnivores. Habitat fragmentation created by forest management activities including roads further divides vegetation into smaller fragments where edge effect lessens habitat quality for low mobility species and habitat avoidance by species requiring isolation from human activities and predators. As road density increases, the permeability of road edges may inhibit dispersal by amphibian species in comparison to movement rates in unroaded habitat (Gibbs, 1998). Outside forces such as wind, fire, and illegal wood gathering can further exacerbate habitat loss when forest patches are small and isolated. Habitat patterns across the landscape are, therefore, an important consideration to help ensure the survival of wildlife species. The location, distribution, and density of the road system within the analysis area are also important. However, knowledge regarding specific effects of roads in the analysis area is limited.

The current total road density within the Miller-Foss Analysis Area varies from 2.95 miles per square mile in the Miller River subwatershed to 3.4 miles per square mile in the Foss River subwatershed. The overall average density for the analysis area including the wilderness portion is 0.70 mile per square mile (Table 25). Studies suggest when road densities exceed three miles per square mile, habitat capability for species such as marten and fishers decreases.

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Table 16. Federally Listed Threatened and Endangered Species and Designated Critical Habitat Federal Status Ecology Conservation Population Species Strategy Northern Spotted Owl Old-growth habitat Lacks nesting habitat Declining due to habitat (Threatened). dependent, specialized use for foraging loss and probably prey-base. dispersal. competition with the barred owl. Northern Spotted Owl Occupies western hemlock Enhance early-to-mid Not applicable. Critical Habitat and Pacific silver fir zone. successional habitat. (Designated). Marbled Murrelet Seabird that nests in Protect known nest Resident of marine (Threatened). mature or old-growth sites; avoid habitat waters; Washington forests, and younger fragmentation. population declining. forests with old-growth tree components within 50 miles of marine waters; depends on availability of large platforms. Breeds solitarily and attends nests during periods of low light. Marbled Murrelet critical Occupies western hemlock Enhance early-to-mid Not applicable. habitat. (Designated). and Pacific silver fir zones. successional habitat. Grizzly Bear Wide-ranging carnivore, Maintain no-net loss of Population is small, 0- (Threatened). avoids humans and core habitat; restore 20 bears, and is likely development, low degraded habitat. the periphery or periodic reproductive capacity. expansion of the BC population. Gray Wolf Wide ranging social Control and monitor Believed extirpated as a (Endangered). carnivore, habitat human disturbance. breeder, but occasional generalist, relies on transients occur; may ungulate populations for become re-established prey, avoids humans and by expanding from development. Idaho.

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Table 17. Regional Forester’s Sensitive Species for the Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie Forest Sensitive Species Ecology Conservation Population Strategy

Bald Eagle Migratory mid-winter Protect large trees; Winter population 30-50 visitor to Skykomish continue public eagles depending on food River & tributaries to education. availability. feed on salmon carcasses. Peregrine Falcon Territorial predator of Report and monitor Nesting pairs continue to pigeons, doves, eyries. Increase throughout state. shorebirds, waterfowl, seabirds, and other birds; nests on high cliffs. Oregon Spotted Frog. Highly aquatic; extant Protect known sites; Declined; only 6 populations inhabit identify and protect populations remain large shallow wetlands potential habitat. suspected on the MBS. associated with streams; breeds in seasonally flooded margins, move underwater in winter. Require source of well- oxygenated water in winter, temperatures above freezing. Common Loon Migrates through Monitor lakes; ask Unknown-documented on analysis area; public to report the MBS. probable foraging in sightings. area lakes Townsend’s Big-Eared Low-elevation Conserve and Unknown. Bat deciduous and conifer protect roosting forests, riparian. habitat, particularly Roosts in caves and identified maternity tunnels; tree cavities at roosts. night. Wolverine Wide ranging mid- Public outreach; Limited distribution; sized carnivore avoids report sightings, probable occurrence humans and conserve known within analysis area. developed areas, sites. occurs in remote habitats, prey generalist, very large area requirement in relation to body size, low reproduction capacity Harlequin Duck Summer breeder in Conserve nesting Stable; hunted in analysis area in fast habitat. Washington State moving stream channels of moderate gradient. Larch Mountain Inhabits steep talus, Conduct pre- Documented on the MBS Salamander lava tubes, or in some disturbance surveys NF; occurs in isolated areas old growth as needed and populations. timber; surface active protect known sites. in wet spring and fall weather, otherwise subterranean. Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 89 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Sensitive Species Ecology Conservation Population Strategy

Van Dyke’s Salamander Associated with Conduct pre- Suspected on the MBS. streams, seeps, rocks disturbance surveys and talus; most as needed and abundant in older protect known sites. forest abundant woody debris, large decaying logs near streams; females brood and guard eggs. Puget Oregonian Terrestrial snail known Conduct pre- Suspected on the MBS. Cryptomastix devia to occur below 1,500 disturbance surveys feet elev. Associated as needed and with old-growth forests protect known sites. and hardwoods. Evening Fieldslug Terrestrial slug Conduct pre- Suspected on the MBS Deroceras hesperium associated with wet disturbance surveys meadows in forested as needed and habitat protect known sites. Oregon Megomphix Terrestrial snail of Conduct pre- Suspected on the MBS. Megomphix hemphilli moist hardwood/ disturbance surveys conifer forest; often as needed and associated with Bigleaf protect known sites. maple and large woody debris. Warty Jumping-slug Terrestrial slug, old- Conduct pre- Suspected on the MBS. Hemphillia glandulosa growth associated disturbance surveys <3,000 feet elev. as needed and protect known sites Shiny Tightcoil Terrestrial snail Conduct pre- Suspected on the MBS. Pristiloma wascoense associated with disturbance surveys hardwood forests. as needed and protect known sites. Johnson's Hairstreak Butterfly associated Conserve old- Suspected on the MBS. Callophrys johnsoni with old-growth forests. growth–no known practical survey methods.

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Table 18. Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Management Indicator Species MBS Management Ecology Conservation Population Indicator Species Strategy Gray Wolf and Grizzly See Table 17. Bear (T&E wildlife habitat MIS) Mountain Goat (mountain Occupies cliff habitats Monitor human State population in goat habitat MIS) to avoid predators encroachment in general decline; status in and raise young. May known kidding areas. analysis area is unknown. winter in wind-blown Assess and identify snow-free terrain & public viewing occupy mountain opportunities. forests. Northern Spotted Owl See Table 16. (old-growth habitat MIS). Pine Marten and Pileated Associated with older Conserve old growth, Stable; common resident Woodpecker (mature and conifer forests, prey large downed wood. of analysis. old-growth habitat MIS). generalist (marten), occupied lower elevation forests than Cascades populations. Primary cavity excavators Irruptive species; Conserve suitable In the analysis area low to (snag and downed log local disturbed sights, habitat, habitat high elevation, on ridge MIS). some dependent on monitoring when crest; occurs in western fire landscapes. funding is available; hemlock, subalpine fir, allow wildfires to burn and alpine/parkland forest in some forests to types. create suitable habitat.

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Climate Change The phenomenon of climate change poses much uncertainty in its effects on the abundance and distribution of wildlife and habitats. Historically, portions of the Miller-Foss Watershed underwent vegetation management from logging. Starting from the valley bottoms, and proceeding into higher elevations on mountainous slopes, the overstory removal of mature and old-growth forests rapidly altered the landscape. In addition, western settlers brought fires, settlements, and associated infrastructure to sustain economic development of the region and the state. Today, much of the Puget Sound region has a developed land base where forests are absent or forest succession is largely suppressed. The remaining harvested areas, however, remain dominated by forest cover.

Vegetative manipulation and habitat removal has altered species distribution. The federally listed northern spotted owl and marbled murrelet, both considered old-growth obligates of the Pacific Northwest temperate forests, exemplify the paradigm shift from forest management to forest preservation to conserve biological communities under current laws and management policies. In addition to federally listed species, the MBS wildlife program manages for Management Indicator Species (MIS), which includes primary cavity excavators, mountain goat, American marten, pileated woodpecker, and forest landbirds (primarily neotropical migrants). The MBS also manages for a list of sensitive species (USDA FS Region 6 MIS List 2008). Habitat conditions for these species may require a range of early to late successional vegetation stages occurring across elevation gradients with varying degrees of vertical and horizontal complexity.

In the MBS, managed wildlife habitat generally occurs in lower to mid elevations and non- wilderness. Vegetation management may occur as precommercial and commercial thinning of forested stands that may range from 25 to 80 years old. Within the MBS, it is an uncommon practice to use prescribed fires to create and enhance natural openings, and it has not occurred in this watershed in the last decade or more. Road decommissioning is considered an improvement of wildlife habitat, and will likely be scheduled for the Miller-Foss Watershed periodically.

The most vulnerable species are generally those of small population sizes, low genetic diversity, and narrow ecological niches (for example, the northern spotted owl). The question is: “how does climate change adversely affect, or possibly benefit, wildlife?” “Are species already responding?” Mote (2003) noted that temperatures in Pacific Northwest have warmed 1° C since 1920. Winter temperature increases have caused 30-60 percent declines in available water, in part, due to early spring runoff (Stewart et al. 2004). It is unknown how wildlife species may be responding to these changes. Some of the following effects to wildlife expected from climate change may include:

 Changes in breeding or migration phenology  Population declines and range contractions  Population increases and range expansions  Changes in trophic (food chain) relationships

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 Changes in morphology,  Changes in extent, distribution, and altitudinal range of suitable habitat, and  Extinction. Vegetation management--the past, present, and future activities--may be, or may likely continue to be, stressors in terms of impacts. Examples of stressors that may increase with climate change include:

 Habitat loss and fragmentation  Non-native species (for example, barred owl and spotted owl hybridization)  Off-forest influences, such as ocean (marbled murrelet); tropical forests (migratory birds)  Insects and disease (for example, avian flu)  Air and water pollution  Predation/ and hunting Forest management must evaluate a range of adaptations to deal with climate change; however, the strategies, tools, and funding available to managers are limited. Restoration objectives identified in this watershed analysis for terrestrial wildlife include road decommissioning and vegetation restoration as it phases towards late-successional forests. How a species responds to habitat restoration in a warming climate may be a test for identifying and evaluating favorable habitats in the future.

Management tools that managers currently have available to achieve positive outcomes in a period of climate change are (1) control invasive species, (2) increase habitat connectivity, (3) maintain biodiversity within and among species, and (4) monitor populations and habitats. It may be necessary to prioritize management actions with the highest likelihood of success and eliminate those with less certain outcomes.

Although this watershed analysis did not focus specifically on climate change or its effects to terrestrial species, an emphasis on reducing road density (through decommissioning) and habitat restoration of previously managed stands also addresses the issue. The emphasis to restore habitat promotes species resilience, although the best adaptive process is uncertain. The effects of potential climate change are global in scope, and guidelines beyond the level of this analysis must be incorporated from the national and regional levels to facilitate adaptation to uncertain environmental outcomes.

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Human Uses and Influences

Heritage: Past Human Uses and Patterns The Forest Service has not performed cultural resources surveys for most of the Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis area. Since 1997, when standard survey protocols were established for the MBS (Hearne and Hollenbeck 1997), only portions (records are not available from GIS) of the analysis area has been surveyed for project level disturbance (National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) Section 106). In 1994 and 1995, the MBS conducted a non-Section 106 3“Passport in Time” survey project in the Alpine Lakes Wilderness in partnership with Pacific Lutheran University (Huelsbeck and Ritchie 1994; 1995). It focused on areas with high-probability for the occurrence of evidence of prehistoric uses (prehistoric archaeological sites).

Evidence suggests that additional research will likely uncover many more sites. The Forest Service should increase survey coverage in the Watershed with improved survey protocols to comply with Federal NHPA Section 1104 responsibilities.

A literature search was completed for the Miller-Foss watershed analysis to identify prehistoric, ethnographic, and historic use patterns. Information provided herein is of a general nature, but indicates potential for heritage resources throughout the analysis area.

Prehistory Archaeological evidence suggests occupation of the coast of what is now Washington as early as 12,000 years ago. These sites are few, and not extensively excavated, but appear to represent an early dispersed settlement pattern focused on fishing [?] and large game hunting. Coinciding with a climate that was warmer and drier than present day between about 9,000 and 4,000 years ago, people utilized a diverse array of environments. Sites dating from as early as 7,000 years ago have been found below the Miller River and Foss River watersheds in the Pilchuck River area. These sites are on older fluvial terraces and consist of low-density lithic materials and fire- modified rock (c.f. Miss and Campbell, 1991). Archaeological evidence from near the Cascade Crest to the north and east of the analysis area indicate use of the Cascades during this period (Mierendorf 2006). Mierendorf’s research and that of others (c.f. Burtchard 2003) argues that the steep slopes of the Cascades provided more productive environmental zones than the lowland and coastal forests, which attracted humans since at least the middle Holocene.

Four to five thousand years ago, the climate became cooler and moister, more similar to today’s climate. In the upper elevations, there were several minor ice advances. During this period, population in the region increased, and subsistence patterns became more complex. Settlement and subsistence were increasingly organized around coastal resources, but there is no evidence of large-scale multifamily dwellings with a dependence on seasonal food-gathering forays and the

3 3 Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act requires consideration of effects of an undertaking on National Register sites and guides consultation with the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation. 4 Section 110 of the National Historic Preservation Act requires the protection of historic properties by federal agencies. Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 94 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis use of long-term storage techniques, which has been described for the later Northwest culture period.

Western Washington prehistory within the last 2,500 years is characterized by large permanent and semi-permanent village sites located on the lower reaches and at river confluences, and along the coastal shorelines and tidal areas. Much of the subsistence activity was oriented toward salmon runs in rivers and streams. People used upland areas on a seasonal basis for specific resources, such as huckleberries and root plants, and other berries and plants, birds such as grouse, and goat hunting. Foods were gathered in quantities and dried or cured, and transported back to the village sites for use over the winter.

Five prehistoric sites, one isolate, and one multi-component site (historic/prehistoric) have been inventoried in the Miller and Foss watersheds. No sites have been comprehensively excavated or yielded adequate materials for radiocarbon dating, and none has been evaluated for eligibility to the National Register of Historic Places. This represents a backlog in the management of prehistoric cultural resources within the MBS.

The prehistoric period in western Washington ended in the eighteenth century with European exploration of Puget Sound, and the establishment of trading posts. There was more contact with Indian people living on the coast than those living inland or upriver, however, the amount of travel and trade among aboriginal people meant that the influences and impacts of European contact was felt inland, and in the Cascades, as well as along the primary contact areas of the coast.

Ethnohistory and Ethnography At the time of European contact, the Miller and Foss watersheds were within the territory of the Skykomish Indian people, an upland/riverine group with close ties through marriage to the Snohomish. They were part of the Lushootseed speaking group of northern Puget Sound. The Skykomish people were represented in the Treaty of Point Elliott and in the small numbers remaining after the smallpox epidemic, moved to the Tulalip Reservation after its establishment. They lost their separate tribal identity in 1870 (Baenen 1981:430).

Skykomish people employed a settlement pattern that included permanent dispersed winter villages. The mid 1800s population of Skykomish people was an estimated 400, but would have been much greater prior to the population-reducing epidemics brought to the area by Europeans. Skykomish winter village sites have been ethnographically recorded near Sultan, Startup, Goldbar, and Index. The upriver group living at Index or above was thought of as “mountain people” (Tweddell 1974), although there is no record of permanent dwellings at higher elevations. The village at Index was also said to accommodate groups heading up the Cascades in search of mountain goat, other game, and huckleberries (Hollenbeck 1987:163).

The ethnographic literature identifies salmon as the most important resource of the Puget Sound Salish people, however, Sunset Falls creates a natural barrier to fish migration. Above Index, the resource focus for Indian people was elk, deer, mountain goat, birds, bear, and many smaller

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 95 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis animals. Haeberlin and Gunther (1930) noted that the Skykomish Indians lived along the Sultan, Skykomish, and Foss Rivers, and traveled through the area on hunting expeditions. Plant foods were also very important, specifically huckleberries, but many more. Summer and fall camps were visited year after year to collect and process important plant and animal foods. Mat or brush temporary dwellings were built at summer/fall camps. Berries and other food plants were consumed fresh, or dried (in the sun or by fires) for future use. They were also brought to social gatherings and exchanged or given away to other tribal groups, in exchange for non-local foods such as clams, and other non-local resources (medicinal plants, stone for tool making, basket materials, etc.).

Some places in the Miller and Foss watersheds may also have been the sources of certain spirit powers or may have been places of spiritual activities or practices. Although no such places have been identified for the Forest Service, it is important to note that religious practitioners or leaders may hold such information privately (Blukis, Onat, and Hollenbeck 1981).

History Historic sites in the Miller and Foss watersheds reflect the early 20th century economic interests of logging and mining in western Washington. Generally, the even-numbered sections of the watersheds were added to the Washington Forest Reserve by proclamation on March 2, 1907. The Washington Forest Reserve became the Snoqualmie National Forest in June of 1908. In 1941, Northern Pacific Railway relinquished odd sections (except those parts classified as mineral withdrawals) and those sections became National Forest under the Transportation Act of 1940.

Logging Small logging interests prospered in the Skykomish Valley, moving upriver as methods and access improved. A shingle mill was in place in Skykomish by 1901. A number of logging companies came and left the Skykomish valley from the period 1900–1930. The Tonga Woods Logging Company had a large mill and a short line of track at Great Northern Railway’s Tonga Siding, on the lower Foss. They logged the mouth of the Foss and Tonga Ridge until their mill was destroyed in 1922, at which time they moved their operations to the Miller River drainage (Peter 1979:6). To the east, the Nippon Lumber Company started the town of Nippon (changed in 1903 to “Alpine”) near the turn of the century until 1928, when the mill closed down due to the impacts of the Depression felt throughout the timber industry (Warren 1984 In: Hollenbeck, 1987:277). Their primary business was making 12 by 12 lumber for construction of snowshed roofs after the March 1, 1910 Wellington avalanche disaster. According to one informant, the Alpine Co. also logged along the lower Foss River (In: Peter 1979).

In 1928, Security Timber Company bought out Alpine, extending the track built up the east side of the Foss River by Alpine. They established a camp on the Foss River, possibly reusing the buildings abandoned by the Dutch Miller Mining Company. Their track branched and extended up both the east and west forks. After they cut all the timber within reach, they removed the track and pulled out of the Foss River valley. After the mining interests and Security Timber left, there was not much commercial activity in the Foss until the 1970s.

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Mining The development of the Great Northern Railway encouraged mineral exploration investors in both the Miller and the Foss River valleys. The development of the Dutch Miller Mines dates to 1896, and by 1901, had $14,000 worth or improvements with several shipments of ore sent to market via the Foss River and the Skykomish River to Puget Sound. (Landes 1902 and Thomas 1907 In: Peter 1979). The expectations were high for the Dutch Miller to produce large amount of copper.

The mining company built a commissary and a siding where the Great Northern Railway crossed the Foss River. A grade for a railroad was built up the Foss River for three miles, and an additional three miles were cleared. Their plan was to build a railroad all the way up to the mill site, located approximately six miles south of the commissary. From there, they would build an aerial tram approximately three miles up Necklace Valley to the mines. As with many such ventures, the prospects did not pan out.

Miners transported ore from Dutch Miller via mules along the cleared and graded route for some years. The interests in the Dutch Miller mines changed hands several times, and finally the access efforts switched to the more accessible Middle Fork Snoqualmie River.

The same vein of ore exists in the vicinity of Malachite Lake and Trout Lake, where it was worked by the Foss River Mining Company between about 1915 and 1925 (Forest Service site record 06050600014). The GLO shows a trail up Trout Creek in 1917. “A group of patented lode mining claims surveyed in 1918 covered most of…the area around Trout Lake. Other unpatented claims have, at various times, covered additional areas [of this same vicinity]” (Guallerieri 1973 in Peter 1979). The Forest Service bought patented mining claims (Vine Maple Lode, Vine Maple Mill site, Jumbo, Jumbo 1, Crystal, and Glacier Hill) with Land and Water Conservation Funds in March of 1967 (Forest Cultural Reconnaissance Report R199706050600031).

The Cleopatra Mines were among the first to be located in the Miller River – and development began in 1897 when the County built 7.50 miles of puncheon road on the west side of Miller River to provide access to the most promising claims. Mines in the Miller River District including the Cleopatra Group, Aces Up, Mono (aka Mona) and the Coney Group produced gold, silver, lead, copper, and zinc. Mining in this area reached its peak between 1900 and 1905. A small concentrating mill was built at Berlin (name changed to Miller River during WWI) but was not profitable and was soon abandoned (Carter 1981; Smith 1915 In: Hollenbeck 1987).

The Cleopatra Mine operated intermittently through 1941, but throughout most of its operation, the ore was taken down from the mines by pack animals. In 1940, a 4,100-foot tramline was built connecting the mine with the camp on the valley floor (Livingston 1971 in Hollenbeck 1987:251). A year later, it was reported that a total of $250,000 in ore had been taken from the mine over the years it had operated. It was classified as “non-essential” and closed down Due to the war (Livingston 1971).

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The Coney group also operated intermittently, losing a number of years of production due to litigation over the deaths of three men in an explosion. In later years, it made shipments of gold ore to the Tacoma smelter in 1934, 1937-39, and 1941 (Hollenbeck 1987:252).

Transportation By 1891, the surveying and locating of a railroad route through Stevens Pass was complete. The Great Northern Railway was completed across Stevens Pass in 1893. The Railway Company cleared a large volume of timber for the route, as well as for structures such as trestles. At the Foss River, the Great Northern Railway built a large, u-shaped trestle, which is still in use by the railroad.

After the avalanche of March 1910, which swept two trains off the tracks at Wellington, the Great Northern began an effort to protect the tracks with several snowsheds and tunnels. All along the line, including the Tye and Skykomish valleys, construction camps housed the crews at work on the GN line. From Stevens Pass west to Index, nine such railroad settlements existed between 1982 and 1910. All have since disappeared, except Skykomish, officially named in 1893 as a rail stop and post office (Lentz 1996).

Most of these settlements had a store and a hotel or boarding house, modest family dwellings, and several saloons. Some also had a school. Berlin, at the mouth of the Miller River, had sawmills, an ore concentrator and a number of homes and commercial dwellings, all of which burned in a forest fire in 1906 (Lentz 1996:11).

While work proceeded in the 1910s to develop a road across the Cascades with various appropriations form the Counties, the old County road ran south of the river and the railroad tracks, through Berlin (Miller River) and Skykomish, along the alignment of the old railroad tote road. The official opening of the Stevens Pass Scenic Highway was heralded along this route on July 11, 1925. More than 1,000 people and as many as 283 automobiles attended the celebration. By 1940, the highway had been rerouted to north of the river (Lentz 1996:14; Roe In: Lentz 1996).

European Settlement Although few homestead entries have been recorded in the watersheds, most are located at the mouths of the rivers, were patented, and remain in private ownership. A number of cabins, however, have been identified from early maps on what are now NFS lands. Few have actually been inventoried in the field. Several are associated with early mining sites or adits, but others may have belonged to trappers.

Two informants reported independently that, unlike other drainages nearby, mining and logging were the only historic activities, and no settlement or homesteading occurred on the Foss River (Peter 1976:8). Several marten sets seen along the West Fork Foss Trail are evidence of trapping that took place at one time in the area (Forest Cultural Resource Report–R1989060500049).

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Recreation The 1917 recreation report for the Snoqualmie National Forest described the existing resort facilities, campgrounds, and access in the Skykomish District as including one at Berlin, outside of the national forest boundary. The railroad brought many campers to the area, and the Forest Service was considering, in 1917, developing a “camping ground” at Dorothy Lake, among other places (Hollenbeck 1987:305). A later, 1929 report refers to the [Dorothy Lakes Recreation Unit] “...will be…a controlling factor in the management and use of the Alpine Lakes–Mt. Daniel recreation area. In fact, it will probably be the future main gateway to the lakes region of the west side of the Cascades between Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes, and as such an attempt should be made to keep it so far as possible in its natural condition”.

The Miller River summer home lots include approximately two acres of NFS land above the channel of the Miller River, accessible by Road 64, Road 6410 and the 6410-110 spur. The Forest Service surveyed the recreation residence tract in August of 1933, but the first two cabins were not built until 1937. The tract was developed in conjunction with the Civilian Conservation Corps’ construction of the Miller River Campground. It reached its maximum extent in the 1950s, and the Forest Service discontinued expansion of the tract following the construction of a cabin on Lot 5 in 1955.

The tract is representative of the development of rural private recreation communities on public lands during the New Deal Era and post WW II periods of Forest Service history. The Miller River Tract is characterized by asymmetrical lot arrangements, strong relationships between natural and cultural features, and use of native, rustic building materials. The cabins embody rustic vernacular architectural style. The Miller River Tract has been determined eligible for the National Register of Historic Places as a Historic District (Gassaway 2006).

Administration The Forest Service had a ranger station–the district’s headquarters–c. 1910 at the present Miller River Campground (G.L.O. Plat map 1894–1916). In approximately 1923, land was purchased and the ranger district headquarters was moved to the town of Skykomish to be more visible and accessible along the Old Cascade Highway. The Miller River site continued to be used as a guard station and work camp (Carter 1981:8).

A trout hatchery was built on Dorothy Lake, as shown on the 1923 Snoqualmie National Forest map. According to one informant, the hatchery was operated by the King County Game Department and had no permanent structures (McCausland in Carter 1981). The Forest Service also had a cabin at Dorothy Lake, and the Berlin Hotel maintained a cabin there for its patrons when they went up the East Fork Trail to the lake. The buildings were later burned down, and no significant resources remain from these activities. By the mid 1960s, the road had replaced the trail to within 1.50 miles of the Lake.

Treaty Rights and Tribal Uses All of the lands within the Miller and Foss watersheds were ceded to the U.S. Government under the Treaty of Point Elliott, signed in 1855, and ratified in 1859. Certain rights were reserved from

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 99 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis land cessions, and these rights continue to be exercised by Tribes and their members. The Treaty of Point Elliott contains the following description of off-reservation treaty rights.

Article 5. The right of taking fish at usual and accustomed grounds and stations is further secured to said Indians in common with all citizens of the Territory, and of erecting temporary houses for the purpose of curing, together with the privilege of hunting and gathering roots and berries on open and unclaimed lands. Provided, however, That they shall not take shellfish from any beds staked or cultivated by citizens (Kappler 1904).

The extent to which these rights are exercised within the Miller and Foss watersheds is not fully known. Resources that are generally recognized as having high value for Indian people for subsistence, spiritual, cultural, and medicinal needs are found in the watersheds, including cedar, a variety of types of berries, and deer.

The Necklace Valley area and areas at the base of Tonga Ridge, accessible from Road 68, 6830, and 6830-310, are recognized for opportunities to pick huckleberries.

Figure 7. Big Huckleberry. Photo courtesy of Laura Potash, MBS The MBS recently entered into a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) with the Tulalip Tribes that establishes a framework for participation and collaboration in areas of planning and resource protection and conservation. Several of the commitments in the MOA address treaty rights, resource harvesting (for example, fish, game, and plant materials) as well as access to NFS lands where Treaty rights are exercised (Memorandum of Agreement by and between the Tulalip Tribes of Washington and the MBS National Forest. October 3, 2007).

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Social/Economic The analysis area lies near the southeastern corner of Snohomish County near the King County line. This analysis therefore focuses on population and economic trends in King and Snohomish Counties. Although the watershed itself is sparsely populated, its proximity to the Seattle metropolitan area, Highway 2, and Interstate 90 provides for significant travel and recreational use in the area.

Population Trends Since 1950, the Puget Sound area has experienced significant population growth. Population trends in King and Snohomish counties are detailed in the table below:

Figure 8. Population Trends 1990- 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2000 King 730,000 935,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,500,000 1,700,000 13% Snohomish 112,000 172,000 265,000 338,000 466,000 606,000 30% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The 30 percent growth of Snohomish County in the previous decade surpasses the 13 percent growth of King County (containing Seattle), and reflects the northward spillover of the greater Seattle commuter area. Population growth has been fueled by economic growth since the 1960s, when Boeing established a major manufacturing facility in Everett. Since then, other major industries have established themselves in the Seattle metropolitan area, most notably Microsoft, which has substantially contributed to population growth, along with other technology companies, and financial firms. Research also indicates that a main factor in the area’s appeal to new residents is its quality of life including outdoor recreation opportunity.

Future projections indicate that population in the Snohomish River basin may increase as much as 59 percent between the years 2000 to 2030 (Snohomish Basin Salmon Recovery Forum 2005).

The median age in King and Snohomish counties is approximately 37 years old,5 which suggests that a substantial proportion of the population may seek outdoor recreational opportunities. The Miller-Foss area lies within two hours of the center of Everett and three hours of the center of Seattle. Given the watershed’s close proximity and easy highway access from these metropolitan areas, it is likely that continued population growth will contribute toward increased recreational use in the analysis area.

5 Washington State Office of Financial Management, http://www.ofm.wa.gov/databook/county/default.asp. Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 101 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Economic Trends

Figure 9 Median household income in King and Snohomish counties 1990 1995 2000 2005 2000-2005 King 38,600 45,400 56,100 62,700 12% Snohomish 38,800 45,000 56,000 62,100 11% Source: Office of Financial Management's State Population Survey, Bureau of the Census estimates, or other sources. http://www.ofm.wa.gov/economy/hhinc/medinc.pdf.

Although the income increases for both counties slowed considerably since the 1990s, the 11 to 12 percent increases since the year 2000 are still respectable. Resource intensive industries such as logging and mining dominated western Washington’s early economic history. However, since the 1960s economic activity has shifted toward manufacturing and professional services. The top five industries in King County for number of employees in 2006 were wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, information services, government, and professional and technical services.6 Manufacturing is overwhelmingly the largest industry in Snohomish County, comprising 32.7 percent of total employed workers. Other major industries in both counties include government, wholesale and retail trade, construction, and financial services.7

The nature of the workweek and the workforce in these employment sectors in the western United States tends to be associated with a quality of life that includes outdoor recreation on weekends and vacations as a popular component.

If recent population trends continue to rise in western Washington, consequent pressure to National Forest recreation opportunities will also continue. The Miller-Foss will be included, seeing a rise in those participating in both developed and dispersed recreation activities. However, this increase could be tempered or cancelled by a continuing rapid increase in energy costs or a prolonged national economic downturn.

Town of Skykomish The town of Skykomish is located just north of the analysis area on the southern banks of the Skykomish River. A small year-round population of approximately 200 is augmented by a number of summer residents who occupy cabins in and around town. Much of the center of downtown Skykomish is an old Burlington Northern-Santa Fe Railroad yard that is undergoing a major CERCL clean-up project.

6 Washington State Office of Financial Management, http://www.ofm.wa.gov/databook/county/king.asp. 7 Washington State Office of Financial Management, http://www.ofm.wa.gov/databook/county/snoh.asp Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 102 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Recreational Use

Recreation Current Conditions The Miller-Foss watershed is predominantly NFS land and receives recreational use year round— the heaviest between June and October on any given year. Landscape characteristics and Forest Service management provide the basis for the type of available recreational use in the area (Map 8). Fundamental factors include proximity to Everett and the greater Puget Sound communities, topography, roaded access, and the Alpine Lakes Wilderness Management Plan (USDA FS 1981) guidelines. Activities typical of the analysis area include sightseeing, berry picking, hiking and high lakes fishing during the summer months. The Forest Plan lists both the Miller and the Foss as potential Wild and Scenic Rivers.

Miller River Watershed The Miller watershed has four dispersed camping sites, one developed reservation group campground (reserved in advance through a national reservation system), and one major trailhead that leads directly into the Alpine Lakes Wilderness. This area is well known for its beauty and serenity with pockets of large old growth forest aligning with the main road when entering the watershed analysis area.

Foss Watershed During the summer months, the Foss watershed draws visitors to this high-elevation (4,000 feet) area to experience pleasant driving, picnicking, and the spectacular scenery of the surrounding peaks and views into the heart of the Alpine Lakes Wilderness.

Berry pickers who visit Tonga Ridge are in pursuit of the prized big huckleberry found here at its most northern range on the Skykomish Ranger District. The berry picking sites run through the Miller-Foss watershed to the adjacent Tye watershed on the Tonga Ridge Road. Most years, there seems to be an abundant supply of huckleberries, easily found quite close to the main road. Old spur roads, left from logging operations, provide ample parking. Picking begins in late August and continues until the first frost in late September or October.

Five dispersed sites for camping and four trailheads exist within the Foss watershed. The trailheads are all access points to the Alpine Lakes Wilderness.

Visitors also come to the Foss area for winter recreation activities, such as cross-country skiing, snow shoeing, and snowmobiling. Winter starts early and last until late April allowing for ample time to enjoy these winter activities.

Developed Recreation The developed recreation within the analysis area lies mainly within the Miller watershed. In the past, the Forest Service had one campground within the Foss watershed along with several

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 103 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis trailheads. The campground today has been reverted to a dispersed site, and the Forest Service has no immediate plans to develop further recreation sites within the Foss watershed.

The Miller River Group Campground is located in a forested setting, adjacent to Miller River. The site is located 2.3 miles up Miller River Road from U.S. Highway 2. The campground has 17 campsites, which include two walk-ins, and 1 large group campsite. The campground’s internal road and parking spurs are paved. Each campsite has a picnic table and a fire ring. The group site is currently under a concessionaire special use permit. The campground includes two toilets and one hand-pumped water source.

The site has been quite popular with people who enjoy its isolated setting, and it is where some of the largest old growth cedar trees in the Skykomish Ranger District can be found. The campground is also very popular Due to the single site design, within the group campground setting. Since its establishment, it has been usually full on the weekends through the season.

Originally, the Miller River Group Site was a seldom used multiple family use campground, acting as an overflow site for the Money Creek Campground, approximately three miles away in the SkyForks watershed. Because designated group sites are limited in the Skykomish Ranger District, the Forest Plan (USDA FS 1990) included recommendations to establish the large site as a designated group site.

Dispersed Recreation Nine main roaded dispersed camping sites exist within the Miller-Foss watersheds, four are located along the Miller River Road, and five along the Foss River Road. Campsites are usually located along spurs off the main road or along streamside banks. During the summer months weekends, hikers, sightseers, and berry pickers are the primary user of the sites. The Forest Service allows these sites, but does not encourage the further development, especially to those areas located in the riparian zone. In the early 1980s, the Forest Service decommissioned a Foss River area campground. The MBS determined the campground to be excess, during a previous recreation feasibility study that focused on budget versus needs.

Wilderness Approximately 64,000 acres of the Alpine Lakes Wilderness are located within the analysis area, which equates to 78 percent of the land management classification in the Miller-Foss watershed. The Alpine Lakes Wilderness, established in 1976, contains 390,000 acres of wooded slopes, alpine meadows, and numerous mountain ridges and peaks and more than 100 lakes that spreads over the Skykomish and Snoqualmie Ranger Districts, located within the MBS, and easterly into the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest. The Miller-Foss River watershed analysis area accesses five of the trails that lead one into the pristine wilderness and subalpine lakes ranging in size from small ponds to the 266-acre Dorothy Lake, along with numerous mountain meadows.

The majority of trails that lead to high alpine lakes are susceptible to user-built social trails (such as trails that cut through switchbacks, cross between campsites, or other shortcut or detour trails) that cause impacts to the wilderness resource, both physically (loss of vegetation) and socially

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 104 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

(loss of solitude). Due to the easy access and the wilderness area’s close proximity to Everett and other Puget Sound populations, these problems have challenged Forest Service managers in developing solutions to protect the lakes from being over run with people and maintain wilderness characteristics.

Figure 10. Alpine Lakes Wilderness. Gary Paull, MBS The MBS in conjunction with Wenatchee National Forest (now the Okanogan- Wenatchee National Forest) completed an Alpine Lakes Wilderness Recreation Use Environmental Assessment in 1993 that provides many management guidelines. The Forest Service has implemented several regulatory guidelines, however; the MBS does not have the necessary funding to effectively enforce the plan and educate visitors.

Trails The majority of the trails in the analysis area receive heavy to very heavy use throughout the summer season. Because the trails were originally constructed to provide access for fire suppression; grazing, or mining, many of the trails have not held up to the heavy hiking traffic, steep grades, or drainage problems of today. Our users have created several social trails interconnecting between many of the lakes and campsites within a lake basin. These social trails have been, and continue to be, a challenge for managers.

Poor trail design and overuse have all resulted in compaction, denudation, and surface erosion, however repairs and improvements are subject to available funding, and currently, and none exists to address these resource concerns. Recent management decisions to eliminate campfires within 0.50 miles of the lakes, has slowly assisted in rehabilitating areas once void of vegetation. According to visitor counts within the Miller-Foss watershed, the Alpine Lakes Wilderness attracts approximately 17,256 visitors annually.

The Necklace Valley Trail and West Fork Foss Lakes Trail are typical of the analysis area, as well as the Skykomish Ranger District. They are within the Foss watershed and lead to the Alpine Lakes Wilderness. The trails start gently passing through old growth forest, and then increase in steepness as they wind their way to higher elevations. The trails usually end at about 4,500 foot in elevation near a destination lake.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 105 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Evans Lake is located only 0.50 miles from a spur road. The Lake has limited parking and no toilet, but does provide a quick, peaceful hike that is great for families with small children. A portion of Tonga Ridge Trail is within the analysis area.

The Dorothy Lake Trail is within the Miller watershed. This trail leads you into the westerly portion of the wilderness. The lake is one of the largest of the alpine lakes, and one of the most traveled during the summer season.

Estimated Estimated Trail Number Trail Miles Annual Annual and Name Day Use Overnight Use 1058 Tonga Ridge 3.0 3,972 354 1062 Necklace Valley 9.5 2,222 1,041 1064 W. Fork Foss 7.6 5,041 2,489 1069 Evans Lake 0.5 470 83 1072 Dorothy Lake 4.5 6,021 1,662 Total 25.1 17,726 5,629

Tonga Ridge Trail #1058 borders with the Tye River watershed and the Foss watershed. This trail provides access to Fisher Lake that lies within the Alpine Lakes Wilderness—and acres of huckleberries. Sheepherders used the ridge early in the first part of the 20th century. Berry pickers praise the area for its abundance of early fall huckleberry fields, and because the Skykomish Ranger District receives quite a bit of snow, this area is also one of the rare accessible areas available for Christmas tree cutting in the valley.

Necklace Valley was named for the “necklace” chain of lakes in the upper valley. Miners built the Necklace Valley Trail #1062 to explore the high-country area around and above the lakes. Necklace Valley is noted for its mixture of forest, heather, and ice-polished granite. Backcountry adventurers and high lake fishers are predominant users of the trail today. The trail accesses several small lakes that make up this strand of lakes including Locket, Gem, Jade, Emerald, and Opal.

The flood of 2006 washed out the West Fork Foss Trail #1064. When trail repair funding ($150,000) becomes available, the Forest Service anticipates repairing the flood damage, which involves building a new bridge and relocating 0.50 mile of trail. The new bridge site will be upstream of a braided flood plain where the river crossing is more gorge like. This trail was first “built” and used by miners accessing their claims at Trout and Copper Lakes. The trail essentially ends at Big Heart Lake at 4,545-foot elevation. Some hearty individuals do continue on to Necklace Valley by way of a primitive non-system trail, known as the Foss Lake High Route.

Of all the lakes in the Skykomish District, Evans Lake Trail #1069 is readily accessible with the lake only 0.50 mile from the road—an exception to all other steep trails that gain considerable elevation. There is virtually no elevations gain as both the trailhead and the lake are at 3,600-foot elevation.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 106 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Dorothy Lake Trail #1072 is one of the most used trails in the Ranger District. At one time, a Forest Service cabin and a State fish and game department facility were located along the lake (built and utilized circa 1920). Today, day hikers, backpackers, and anglers primarily use this lake. The trail is also excellent for young families with children. Recently reconstructed, this trail underwent a $300,000 facelift utilizing Forest Service Capital Investment funds as well as grants and volunteers. Beginning in 2001, the trail work took six years to complete.

Winter Use The Foss River watershed portion of the analysis area is one of the few areas within the Skykomish River Basin offering a variety of winter opportunities. Together with the Tye watershed, the Tonga Ridge area offers great snowshoeing, cross-country skiing, and snowmobiling. The Alpine Lakes Wilderness area prohibits snowmobiling or any other motorized use, so recreationists need to be aware of the boundaries. Miller River watershed has some limited winter use, offering some cross-country skiing and snowshoeing. The Miller River Group Site is popular during the winter with groups, especially the Boy Scouts for practicing and earning their winter camping merit badge certifications.

Special Uses Miller River recreation residences are located 2.8 miles up the Miller River from U.S. Highway 2. There are seven rustic lots, each with a cabin and outbuilding(s). All the cabins have been there since the early 1940s and are eligible for the National Register of Historic Places. The recreation residences are currently under Forest Service Special Use Permits that expire in December of 2008. The Forest Service will issue new permits for a 20-year period beginning in 2009.

Wild and Scenic River The Forest Plan (1990) categorized several rivers and portions of rivers within the analysis area as “proposed for designation” and inclusion in the National Wild and Scenic River System. Until decided, the Forest Service will protect the characteristics that make them eligible and suitable for classification.

There are three classifications:

 5a) Recreation River Areas. Those rivers or sections of rivers that is readily accessible by road or railroad, that may have some development along their shorelines, and that may have undergone some impoundment or diversion in the past.  5b) Scenic River Areas. Those rivers or sections of rivers that are free of impoundments, with shorelines or watersheds still largely primitive, shorelines undeveloped, but accessible in places by roads.  5c) Wild River Areas. Those rivers or sections of rivers that are free of impoundments and generally inaccessible except by trail, with watersheds or shorelines essentially primitive and waters unpolluted. These represent vestiges of primitive America. Table 19 below lists rivers within the analysis area and their potential designation.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 107 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 19 Potential Wild and Scenic River Designations. Proposed Name Segment Miles Designation Miller River Mouth to confluence of East and West Forks 3.7 Scenic Confluence with East Fork to Alpine Lakes Wilderness West Fork 4.2 Scenic boundary Miller Alpine Lakes Wilderness boundary to headwaters 2.1 Wild Confluence with West Fork to Alpine Lakes Wilderness 6.0 Scenic East Fork Miller boundary Alpine Lakes Wilderness boundary to Dorothy Lake 0.8 Wild Foss River Mouth to confluence of East and West forks 4.4 Recreation Confluence with East Fork to Alpine Lakes Wilderness 1.5 Recreation boundary West Fork Foss Alpine Lakes Wilderness boundary to headwaters at Delta 3.1 Wild Lake Confluence with West Fork to Alpine Lakes Wilderness 1.2 Recreation boundary East Fork Foss Alpine Lakes Wilderness boundary to headwaters at Lynch 6.7 Wild Glacier

Reference Conditions and Trends The demand for recreation in the analysis area will increase slightly in certain portions of the area. The actual overall use is showing minimum increases for the population of the State. The states population is growing, and therefore, the analysis area is seeing an increase of already overused existing sites. This is a general trend in Washington State, identified in the report by the Interagency Committee for Outdoor Recreation, Estimates of Future Participation in Outdoor Recreation in Washington State (SCORP March 2003). Individuals surveyed indicated that they are increasingly using dispersed sites with access to trails, water, and other activities nearby.

Hikers are trending away from the long-distance overnight backpacking popular in the 1970s and 1980s. This could be contributed to hikers sensitive to setting, weather, the absence or presence of other hikers, (even over crowding), or age group participation. Future participation rates in most other outdoor recreation activities are anticipated to increase (IAC 2002).

Historically, age groups of 35 and older dominated hiking. Today’s diminishing participation is likely attributed to the age of the hiking population and physical abilities for long distance overnight hiking. Participation in shorter day hikes will increase, as will the demands for forms of recreation geared for an older visitor; such as campgrounds, interpretive trails, scenic drives, viewpoints, and restrooms.

The Puget Sound area’s quality of life, including ample recreation opportunities, will continue to attract business and industry. Surrounding communities and rural areas such as the Miller-Foss analysis area can expect share in the population increases with the larger metropolitan areas of King and Snohomish Counties. During summer weekends and holidays, developed campgrounds and hiking trails will continue to approach and reach capacity.

Disappearing maintenance and construction budgets will likely hinder the Forest Service from making repairs and constructing new backcountry trails. Heavily used trail systems and

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 108 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis lakeshores will continue to receive impacts from overuse, which in this analysis area are mainly areas within the wilderness. Constructing new trails outside the wilderness area could lessen impacts by dispersing use away from wilderness sites.

Conversion of road to trails may lessen impacts at heavily overused sites. However, the recreational value of a road to trail conversion and resulting trail maintenance costs must be carefully and fully assessed.

Dispersed, roaded recreation demand will increase approximately five percent during the next ten years. The pressure for undeveloped recreation is on the increase, and will create management challenges in the future. The MBS is currently unable to provide funding and personnel to keep up with the need. The MBS does not expect to create additional dispersed or developed recreation site opportunities in either the Miller or the Foss watershed.

Vandalism, vehicle break-ins, thefts, homicides, assaults, and garbage dumping are expected to increase, demanding additional law enforcement, and resulting in a diminished recreational experience. The Forest Service is currently unable to provide the level of law enforcement needed within the analysis area.

Overuse of the Alpine Lakes Wilderness will continue, which is not consistent with wilderness standards and guidelines. The gains of the last few years may be lost without future enforcement and education patrols. Those few wilderness rangers present, will be unable to provide adequate educational emphasis about recreational use as outlined in the Alpine Lakes Wilderness Recreation Use EA standards and guidelines.

Berry picking in the area may diminish in time, as the forest trees continue to grow and increase in canopy size, which will shade and deprive the huckleberries of the light necessary for growth and reproduction.

Climate Change Our climate has changed and will continue to change, with alternating warm, cold, wet, and dry periods. The recreation use patterns are typically tied to the traditional school year summer vacation season for the vast majority of recreation visitors, rather than the fluctuating weather patterns. Openings of campgrounds start Memorial Day and operate through Labor Day. At this time, this use pattern is not expected to change due to varying weather or climate conditions.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 109 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Land and Minerals

Land Ownership Although the analysis area is a combination of mixed Federal and private ownerships, nearly all is Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest system land. The small percentage of privately owned land outside of the National Forest boundary, about two percent, sits in the northern portions of the Miller River and Foss River subwatersheds (analysis area) near the town of Skykomish. Private inholdings within the National Forest account for only about one-half of one percent of the land within the analysis area, and only occur in the Miller River watershed. Longview Timberlands, LLC owns roughly half of the private inholdings, which also include a handful of patented mining claims. No national forest land purchases or exchanges are currently underway in either the Miller or the Foss watersheds.

The Forest Service is required to “grant access to inholdings of non-Federal land within the National Forest boundary for the reasonable use and enjoyment of those lands by the landowner” (Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act 1980). Typically, this means roaded access, and in this case all inholdings are adjacent to a Forest Service road.

Table 20. Land ownership in the Miller and Foss subwatersheds (global changes) Miller River Foss River Both Both Land Ownership Area (acres) Area (acres) (acres) (percentage) MBS 28450.5 34715.1 63165.6 97.46 Private Inholdings 356.6 0.0 356.6 0.55 Outside MBS Boundary 504.0 786.9 1290.9 1.99 Total 29311.1 35502.0 64813.1 100

Access to Private Land “Mine-to-Market Roads” was a Depression-era program similar to Farm-to-Market Roads. Local residents could petition the County or State to construct a public road to reach their farming or mining districts to improve the access to farm products and mines for economic benefit to the public. Federal, State, and County coffers supplied the construction funds. Once constructed to the public standard of the day, the road was generally accepted as either a County or a State public road. Occasionally, officials did not accept the petitioned road for one reason or another, and it would just exist in a quasi-public status across NFS lands (Map 24). This appears to be the case for the five roads listed below. Although each has Forest Service road numbering, they were never provided with a specific Forest Service road maintenance level (ML) that designates the type of use the road receives in terms of maintenance and traffic. (see Table 24 on p. 114 for a definition of ML).

West Fork Miller River 6410 000: The road was built for access to the Cleopatra Mine several miles up the drainage. According to the Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie Right-of-Way Atlas (April 2008), the West Fork Miller River is a King County Road, “Mine-to-Market status”. King County does not have the road on their system and does not have any information on its status.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 110 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Additionally, the West Fork Miller River Road has a cloudy title status. To designate the Forest Service as the jurisdictional agency, King County must record a “Disclaimer of Interest” stating that they have no legal interest in the road. The disclaimer would clear up any title questions, and allow the Forest Service to use federal road maintenance funds to perform road maintenance. That process is underway as of the date of this analysis.

Cashman Road 6410 210: This road provides access to the Cashman/Orphan Girl Mines. Currently, the miner is supposed to maintain the road for access. If the Forest Service ceased further maintenance, and if the bridge no longer crossed the Miller River, the miner would need to construct a new bridge. In this case, the miner may not need access for decades, and helicopter logging is an option in the event of timber harvest activities.

Nelson Road 6820 000: Burlington Northern Sante Fe (BNSF) Railroad and Longview Fibre Company presently maintain the road. Longview Fibre has planned timber sales and holds an easement for accessing the area.

Temple Mountain Road 6422 000: Provides private land and Longview Fibre access. Culverts on the road may already have been pulled in the 1980s, but that information is unknown. If deed necessary or feasible, the Forest Service may choose to decommission or close the road and put it in storage at Maintenance Level (ML1). The landowners could reopen or rebuild the roads as needed for future use.

Temple Spur Road 6422 105: Provides access to Longview Fibre land, but they do not have an easement. The road could be decommissioned (for storage, ML 1), and Longview Fiber could open the road in the future if they request access and an easement. The road may already be in condition similar to it would be if it were decommissioned, however, that is currently unknown.

Special Uses The primary types of existing Special Uses Permits for National Forest System lands within the analysis area are linear rights-of-way in the form of road or railroad easements, and powerline easements. The Foss River Road 68 has a 6.7 mile-long buried Puget Sound Energy powerline that runs up to the Maloney and Sobieski communication sites. The two communication sites are located just outside of the watershed boundary. Additionally, as stated, there are seven recreation residences near the Miller River Campground under Recreation Special Use Permit.

Minerals Mining activity within the Miller and Foss watersheds peaked in the early 1900s, leaving behind more than a dozen historic mines. While there is no record of prospecting or mining in the area prior to the late 1880s, at one time the West Fork of the Miller River was the largest silver producer in King County. In addition to silver, mines in the Miller and Foss subwatersheds produced gold, copper and antimony, as well as various ore minerals.

Today, although not recommended, some remains of the mining activity can be visited by hardy individuals willing to hike and climb cross-country. In the Miller Watershed, the old mines are

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 111 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis concentrated in areas near the West Fork of the Miller River. In the Foss watershed, the mines are concentrated within a few miles of Trout Lake.

Currently, no mining claims are active within National Forest System lands in either watershed, and there are no apparent active mining operations on private land in the analysis area. The Alpine Lakes Wilderness was closed to mineral entry upon designation in 1976; however, future mining claims may be filed in non-wilderness areas.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 112 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Infrastructure

Roads and Railroads Early access to the Skykomish area was served by the construction of the Great Northern Railroad, which was built across Stevens Pass to provide direct transportation over the Cascade Mountains in the late 1800s. The Cascade Highway was constructed in 1925, and was paved in the 1930s.

Most of the roads on NFS land were initially constructed for timber harvest and mining activities. Roads along the valley floor were constructed first, in the early 1900s. By the 1970s, roads for timber harvest were being built in the steeper terrain of the upper watersheds. Although the roads were original built for timber and mining access, a large portion of the road system serves multiple use, including public access for hiking, camping, hunting, fishing, wildlife, and scenic viewing and harvesting and gathering of plants such as berries. The roads also retain the social aspect of allowing users to gain entry into the forest for driving pleasure.

Due to construction practices prior to 1970s, a significant portion of the road system requires either upgrading where access is to be maintained, stabilization, or decommissioning treatments where required to prevent resource damage from occurring.

Approximately 71.1 miles of existing roads are located within the analysis area. The following table gives a breakdown of these roads by ownership.

Table 21. Miller–Foss Analysis Area Road miles by Ownership Road Miles by Ownership, Miller-Foss Analysis Area System Miles National Forest System Roads 50.5 County or State 14.6 Private 2.0 Unknown 4.0 Total 71.1

The 50.5 miles of NFS roads are currently distributed into the following maintenance levels:

Table 22. Miller–Foss Watershed Area-National Forest System Roads Operational Maintenance Level Miles Level 1–Closed–In Storage 9.30 Level 2–Open Maintained for High Clearance Vehicles 15.6 Level 3–Open Maintained for Passenger Cars 24.6 Level 4–Open Maintained for Passenger Cars 1.10 Level 5–Open Maintained for Passenger Cars 0.0 Total 50.5

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 113 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

The Forest Wide Access and Travel Management Plan and the Road Risk Analysis (USDA FS 2003) provided future road management recommendations within the analysis area. The following proposals were made.

Table 23. Miller-Foss Analysis Area Proposed Road Maintenance Proposed National Forest System Roads Miles Road Decommissioning 14.12 Closed Roads 7.6 Open Roads 28.79

If these proposals were carried out, the road system would decrease in the analysis area to 36.39 miles of roads, including roads in storage. Open roads including high clearance vehicles and passenger vehicle roads would decrease by 12.41 miles.

Table 24. Miller-Foss Analysis Area Road Maintenance Level Objective National Forest System Roads Objective Maintenance Level Miles Level 1–Closed–In Storage 7.6 Level 2–Open Maintained for High Clearance Vehicles 6.98 Level 3–Open Maintained for Passenger Cars 20.71 Level 4–Open Maintained for Passenger Cars 1.1 Level 5–Open Maintained for Passenger Cars 0.0 Total 36.39

Table 25. Miller–Foss Analysis Area Road Density National Forest System Roads Road Density Road Miles/Square Mile Miller–Foss Including Wilderness 0.70 Miller–Excluding Wilderness 2.95 Foss–Excluding Wilderness 3.43

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 114 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 26. Miller-Foss Analysis Area NFS Road Decommissioning (1994 ATM) Road Number Miles 6412000 4.22 6412310 0.50 6412350 0.40 6412410 0.50 6412510 0.30 6430000 2.70 6800120 0.20 6800130 0.20 6800800 0.50 6830106 0.30 6830134 0.20 6830136 0.20 6830150 0.90 6830155 0.30 6830160 0.20 6830210 0.30 6830316 0.20 6830318 0.20 6830330 0.20 6835750 0.20 6846000 0.50 6846110 0.40 6846210 0.30 6846314 0.20 Total 14.12

Across the Mt Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest, the overall consensus is that the present number of roads is greater than required, and that the agency is currently unable to maintain the existing network with the available appropriated funding. The Forest-wide ATM plan effort completed in 1994 was presented to the public for comments and, in general gives credence to this conclusion. As part of this assessment, the purpose of each road was examined by developing or updating the road management objectives (RMO) determined in 1994. Parts of the existing road system will need to be decommissioned (removed from the road system), or closed and placed in storage. Other parts will need to continue to be maintained to allow public access for recreational purposes, private land inholding access, as well as forest and fire management access. (Skyforks Watershed Analysis 2001).

The 1994 ATM was not implemented. The current transportation system does not reflect current and future access needs based on resource protection, social values, administrative needs, current budgets, and economic needs. Resources will continue to be adversely affected by increased use and inability of Forest Service to adequately maintain the road system due to budget shortfalls. It is critical that the Forest Service adjust the transportation system to balance the needs, provide for resource protection, and ensure the roads are adequately maintained for health and safety. Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 115 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Reduced budgets in road maintenance funding for annual and deferred maintenance has reduced the Forest Service’s ability to maintain its current road system. If basic annual road maintenance (such as drainage maintenance) is not performed, roads have an increased potential for loss of investment and resource damage. The same is true for deferred maintenance, such as replacing major culverts at the end of their service life in perennial streams. A culvert failure would have a negative impact on the associated watershed and aquatic health, and could trigger additional culvert failures, compounding the damage. Factors such as geology, soils, slope, and past development activities affect the costs and the difficulties of maintaining or improving a road. These factors become concerns when they lead to excessive erosion of the road surface and prism, tendency for rutting, recurring maintenance, or slope failure that could damage or remove portions of a road, increase sediment contribution to the watershed, and affect hillslope water processes.

Many of the roads were constructed using outdated and old forest practices. For instance, culverts were sized to pass storms recurring in 25 years or less. These old practices or specifications led to stream crossings that are incapable of handling 100-year flood events with debris flows. Additionally, cross drains were undersized and have contributed to surface and ditchline erosion and embankment failures. In order to eliminate these contributing factors, roads should be maintained, reconstructed, abandoned, or decommissioned. Roads that are properly designed, constructed, and maintained will reduce risk and impacts to the landscape (Forest Roads: A Synthesis of Scientific Information 2001).

There are many techniques for reducing erosion and sediment transportation on roads. Placing aggregate surfacing on travel ways, installing water bars or cross drains, and establishing riparian buffer zones are usually the most cost-effective. Field test have shown that spacing recommendations for these types of controls should be based on soil type, topography, road dimensions, road aspect, and climate (Predicating effects of climate, soil and topography on road erosion, Morfin, Elliot, Foltz, Miller 1996). By placing aggregate surfacing to roads, managers can reduce the amount of erosion. Likewise, removing roads from the effected environment can help reduce sedimentation. (Modeling low volume road erosion, Elliot, Foltz Luce, 1999).

Roads provide access for a variety of users groups including land managers, for monitoring and research, firefighting, a wide variety of recreational users, and private land inholders. Along with assessing terrestrial and aquatics impacts associated with the roads, similar evaluation should be given to the economic and social values that are associated with each road within the watershed. Impacts on various user groups should be considered when planning to maintain, reconstruct, or decommission roads. Impacts of changes in road management to forest uses and users should also be analyzed. For example, decommissioning roads with high use or high social value will displace certain uses and users to d other areas of the national forests, where unforeseen new effects may occur.

Climate Change Much of the scientific climate scenarios indicate that in the future, the Pacific Northwest will have increased rainfall, fewer snowfalls, and an increase in flooding during the winter. From a

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 116 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis transportation standpoint, there are four approaches to prepare for the potential for increased storm events:

 Be reactive, and do nothing and wait for an event to occur and react to that event by: o making repairs o relocating roads o decommissioning roads, or o upgrading the transportation system after an event occurs.  Be proactive, and upgrade and storm proof the transportation system to withstand extreme weather events;  Decommission or relocate roads in high risk areas; and  A combination of proactive and reactive by implementing the following: relocate, decommission, and storm proofing the transportation system, in addition to reacting to events. All of these prescriptions will require sufficient funding availability to adequately treat the transportation system, including the reactive approach.

Specific Recommendations for ATM The upper portion of Road 6410 has been determined not to be a “Market-to-Mine Road” (Bill Strong, Forest Service Engineer 2008). This road should be decommissioned from approximately milepost 4.1 (past patent mining claims) to milepost 7.7 end of the road, approximately 3.6 miles. Currently, this road is listed in the Forest Service INFRA database as a maintenance level (ML) 2 road.

Road 6412 should remain at operational ML 3 with a change to the objective maintenance level from decommissioning to a ML 3.

Additionally, the MBS should evaluate each road within the watershed and ATM analysis area to determine which roads will be closed, decommissioned, relocated, stabilized, or upgraded to a higher maintenance level standard, downgraded to a lower of maintenance level standard, or maintained at the 1994 ATM recommendations. Furthermore, the MBS should address critical health and safety issues on roads to high use recreation areas. In summary, future management should implement mitigation measures on high-risk roads that are adversely affecting the resources.

Past and Current Conditions, and Expected Future Trends 117 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis Chapter 3 - Findings and Recommendations

Introduction Synthesis is the process the watershed analysis team uses to integrate separate ecosystem elements to help understand the whole system. The team looks for linkages between the physical and biological functions and processes in the analysis area. Synthesis considers all three domains--aquatic, terrestrial, and human--and identifies where overlaps and conflicts occur.

The team conducted synthesis by having each resource specialist report on significant attributes and findings from their assessment. These attributes and findings were then displayed on working maps so that overlaps, interactions, and potential conflicts could be identified and discussed as a group. Map 27 Human Influence, Map 28 Terrestrial Domain, and Map 29 Aquatic Systems show the results of the domain discussions. A composite map that shows where significant overlaps of multiple resource findings occur. These maps outline generalized areas of major resource uses or concerns.

They do not capture all of the resource concerns, processes, functions, and information of the analysis. These generalized outlines are not for specific management use without on-site validation of the conditions represented by the lines.

These maps and the associated discussion led to development of synthesized recommendations included in Table 27. Areas of resource concern–findings and recommendations.

Recreation. The Miller-Foss watershed analysis area ranges from 900 to 7,800 feet elevation. Much of it is steep and rugged, and relatively undisturbed by management activities. About 64,000 acres (78 percent of the analysis area) lie within the Alpine Lakes Wilderness. The wilderness presents management challenges as more than 17,000 hikers, backpackers, and climbers access the wilderness through the analysis area per year. A road system provides dispersed camping and access to trailheads, and wilderness visitors do leave behind impacts to the resources, particularly dispersed campers who leave trash and compacted soil, and trail users who leave the trail to access other sites or take short cuts, creating “social trails” that damage soil and vegetation and intrude upon cultural resources. As recreational use continues to grow, impacts to these resources are likely to become increasingly adverse.

Roads. Road stacking occurs when multiple roads switchback up the same hillslope such that failure of one road can trigger failures of roads below. It is most prevalent in the lower portion of the Foss watershed (density of 3.4 miles per square mile, west of Tonga ridge). Storm runoff and sediment from the main road and spurs located directly upslope from the river adversely affect aquatic habitat. Aquatic species would benefit from road upgrades and closure or decommissioning. However, this work must be weighed against the need for access for recreation, ecological surveys in some areas, and opportunities for silvicultural treatment to some alder and dense conifer stands. Wildlife impacts will continue, but by decommissioning some

Findings and Recommendations 118 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis roads, or leaving them in their current undriveable state, low mobility species such as salamanders and mollusks may benefit.

Huckleberries. Huckleberry gathering is a highly valued tradition to recreationists and Native Americans in the analysis area. The productivity of the huckleberry bushes is decreasing as the forest stands mature and fill in the canopy, shading out the huckleberry plants in the understory. Changes in road maintenance and decommissioning some roads would not significantly alter the quantity of huckleberries available. However, if acres of Matrix land elsewhere were exchanged for acres of Late Successional Reserve (LSR) land here, some prime huckleberry areas now in LSR could become Matrix and be thinned and managed to meet both timber management objectives as well as to enhance huckleberry productivity. There are approximately 190 acres that could be targeted for such an allocation exchange.

Christmas Trees. In these and other areas of conifer plantations that are maturing to a closed- canopy of tall trees, stand thinning and management could also provide for an increase in Christmas tree availability, which is also diminishing as the stands mature.

Table 27. Areas of resource concern–findings and recommendations and Table 28. Areas of overlapping concerns–findings and recommendations attempt to capture the major interactions and findings developed through synthesis. The first table list concerns specific to a resource that do not conflict or overlap geographically with other resource concerns. The second table lists only the several concerns that do overlap and therefore interact.

These tables are not intended to display all of the concerns and findings identified in the more detailed description in Chapter 2 -Issues and Key Questions. There are also potential resource risks and opportunities identified in the preceding chapters that should not be overlooked when planning management action.

Findings and Recommendations 119 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 27. Areas of resource concern–findings and recommendations Items of Concern or Future Trends Consequences Management Recommendations Interest Aquatic Domain Core Topic: Aquatic Species and Habitat

Streamflow for Salmon and Some reaches of the lower 1.5 miles of There will continue to be periods Explore techniques such as placement of large wood Aquatic Species in Miller River the mainstem Miller River goes below during the summer and early fall jams in lower Miller River to help stabilize the channel, the surface during late summer months when reaches of the mainstem maintain side channel habitat, and maintain surface of most years. Summer baseflows seep become de-watered, resulting in fish flows longer. into the thick alluvium deposited in these being stranded in higher reaches, or wide, shallow, braided reaches. killed in dry lower reaches as residual Consider riparian planting of conifers to accelerate their pools de-water or become too warm. establishment, thereby reducing the time to stabilize This condition will likely continue for at streambanks, and encourage the narrowing and least several decades, because in the There will likely continue to be deepening of the lower channel. best case, it will take several decades for insufficient baseflows during some riparian stand to become re-established periods in future years to support Survey streambank and floodplain elevations in the near river, and for the channel to adjust salmon and other aquatic species, lower channel, and conduct HEC-RAS and appropriate by becoming narrower and deeper as with significant fish mortality. In bedload transport modeling to estimate if current Old channel banks become more stable. addition, passage to viable habitat Cascade Highway Bridge is significantly reducing upstream will continue to be blocked sediment transport capacity past the highway. If the The channel will continue to be by low waters and consequent current bridge is greatly limiting sediment transport, constrained by the narrow, old bridge on seasonally high water temperatures. consideration should be given to proposing that a the Old Cascade Highway that crosses longer bridge span be constructed to replace it. This the river near its confluence with the would both eliminate the frequent flooding over the road South Fork Skykomish. This may retard during high flows, and allow more bedload to be or prevent full restoration of natural transported downstream, thereby reducing deposition channel process and high quality riparian of alluvium in this reach and the consequent braiding and instream habitat. and channel shallowing.

Aquatic Habitat Conditions Existing riparian and instream habitats Productivity of local salmonid Monitor summer stream temperatures in the Miller and degraded in lower Miller River populations particularly listed species Foss to determine if water temperatures exceed criteria (Chinook salmon, steelhead, bull recently approved by EPA and are limiting to bull trout. trout) may stay low and not contribute to recovery in the basin Investigate lower Foss River to determine feasibility and value of creating and improving pool habitat

Findings and Recommendations 120 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Items of Concern or Future Trends Consequences Management Recommendations Interest Aquatic Domain Core Topic: Aquatic Species and Habitat

Lake water quality and riparian Some of the lakes in Miller and Foss Due to the natural very low acid Continue to intermittently survey water quality and conditions subwatersheds are among the most neutralizing capacity of many of the invertebrate community (at least twice per decade) of dilute, and most susceptible to alpine lakes in the Miller and Foss, it some of the lakes that have been sampled repeatedly acidification from air pollution emissions is possible that future additional this decade (Foehn, South Tank, North Tank, Tahl). in the entire country. One similar lake inputs of nitrogen and sulfur oxides Any further reduction in the acid neutralizing capacity within the MBS (Summit Lake in the will acidify some lakes to varying (ANC) would result in a decreased pH level, possibly Clearwater Wilderness) has become degrees, resulting in measurable or severe enough to negatively impact invertebrates acidified over the last few decades due observable impacts to some or all and/or fish species. to emissions, resulting in significant species of the aquatic community. impacts to some species of the aquatic Decreases in pH due to air pollution emissions community. It is also possible that future generally occur over years to decades, so monitoring recreational use of many lakes in the would yield forewarning, help demonstrably link cause Lakes in the analysis area will continue analysis area will increase, possibly and effect, and may allow some changes in air to be vulnerable to acidification. degrading riparian conditions unless provincial air emissions to be made (USFS has some is monitored and controlled. regulatory influence on emission sources that impact Heavily visited lakes in the Miller and the national forest’s airsheds). Foss will continue to be at risk of riparian degradation due to off-trail (non- Resurvey lakeshore riparian habitats to compare with permitted) recreational use. past surveys to monitor effects of recreational use, and trigger additional restoration and site hardening efforts if necessary.

Bull trout above Sunset Falls Bull trout have utilized the South Fork The Foss River system is important Conduct approved bull trout surveys (nighttime primarily using Foss River. Skykomish watershed, including portions refugia for bull trout in the South Fork snorkels) for bull trout in the Foss system, and compare of the analysis area, since the Skykomish sub-Basin. Protection of to numbers, sizes, and health found in previous establishment of the WDFW truck-and- the high quality, cool habitat in the rigorous surveys conducted in the early 1990s. haul facility at Sunset Falls in 1958. Bull mainstem and lower East and West trout are expected to further increase Forks of the Foss is a high priority Review 2000 Foss stream surveys and recent large- their population and range in the Foss within the sub-Basin for the continued scale aerial photos. Walk portions of the mainstem system if returns at Sunset population health and productivity of this Foss, and lower East and West Forks and consider if continue to increase. threatened species. habitat conditions could be improved if large woody debris structures (designed jams) were constructed. Submit a draft study proposal for introduction of LWD in some locations if it appears that the resulting habitat improvements would be significant for bull trout, and they appear feasible in the Foss system.

Findings and Recommendations 121 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Items of Concern or Future Trends Consequences Management Recommendations Interest Aquatic Domain Core Topic: Aquatic Species and Habitat

Effects of introduced fish on Before the opening of the WDFW Sunset Although bull trout expanded their Monitor bull trout and brook populations in the Foss native fish and native Falls truck-and-haul facility in 1958, only range into the South Fork Skykomish system. Develop study proposal to identify interactions, amphibians in stream and lakes. trout and other resident fish were River due to the construction of the and any negative impacts by brook trout upon the bull present in the South Fork Skykomish truck-and-haul facility, they were trout population. sub-basin. In addition, the vast majority native to the adjacent N.F. of alpine lakes in the Miller and Foss did Skykomish system. Brook Trout were If possible, conduct limited sampling of amphibian, not support any fish species prior to introduced in the rivers and lakes of invertebrate, and fish populations within paired stocked stocking efforts that began in the early the analysis area in the 1900s, and and unstocked lakes to assess impact of stocking. If no 1990s, although most did support native have had a significant negative suitable paired lakes can be found, conduct limited invertebrate and amphibian impact upon native trout and char sampling of same variables of stocked lakes to have communities. (i.e. bull trout and Dolly Varden). some baseline available for future comparisons. The current mix of resident and The introduction of rainbow, introduced anadromous fish in the river cutthroat, and brook trout into the systems may continue, as is an majority of lakes into the Miler and extensive stocking program of trout into Foss has impacted the native most of the lakes in the Miler and Foss. amphibians and invertebrate communities. The extent of that impact is not known in these subwatersheds, but it is known from research conducted in the North Cascades National Park (Larson and Liss unknown date) and other locations that native populations are negatively affected to varying degrees.

Findings and Recommendations 122 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Items of Concern Future Trends Consequences Management Recommendations

Human Domain Core Topic: Recreation and Wilderness

Off-road use into the wilderness The Wilderness experience is being The use will continue. Loss of The road needs to be managed in a manner that does accessed by Road 6410 degraded; motorized use is not allowed solitude in wilderness experience will not allow vehicles to leave the road and access but continuing. continue. Wilderness. Decommission the upper portion of Road 6410.

Wilderness and trail use levels Demand for recreation opportunities is Loss of values for which the area was Provide resources for enforcement and education of and impacts increasing for day use within the designated such as natural resources Wilderness ethics such as Leave No Trace (LNT). Keep Wilderness, and funds are declining for preservation. Diminishing vegetation all inventoried trails maintained and open, such as enforcement and education. and soil compaction along trails and West Fork Foss Trail 1064. lakeshores.

Demand for roaded dispersed Recreation use will continue for Garbage dumping, escalating law Provide for public safety and resource protection. recreation activities, such as group camping, enforcement problems, and Increase presence of USFS officials. Insure toilet picnicking, berry picking, and driving for uncontained human wastes. facilities are installed and maintained at trailheads. pleasure.

Campfire Effects Without the existing campfire ban, Degradation of campsites and Monitor the implementation and effectiveness of the dispersed campsites would become camping experience. campfire ban in the Alpine Lakes area. covered with fire rings and burned materials.

Tribal needs and concerns with Tribes will have increasing interest in MBS road, trial, minerals, energy, National Forest management MBS land-disturbing management and vegetation modifying activities activities. actions in this watershed and elsewhere. will engender concerns and Memoranda of Agreement (MOA) opposition from some Tribal between the Forest Service and a Tribe members and councils. MOAs express the Tribe’s needs, concerns, become increasingly important in and priorities in relation to MBS projects. establishing mutual expectations and commitments. MOA implementation will facilitate exercise of treaty- reserved rights on National Forest System lands.

Findings and Recommendations 123 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Items of Concern Future Trends Consequences Management Recommendations Human Domain Core Topic: Geologically Sensitive Areas Landslide-prone and erosion- Soil stability modeling shows extensive Potential new slumps, slides, and prone areas. areas of potential instability throughout erosion will adversely affect Detailed on-site assessment of slope stability and much of Miller and Foss subwatersheds. downstream water quality and potential surface erosion should be conducted at these Plans for future development of roads, aquatic species habitat sites before any ground disturbing actions are trails, trailheads, crossings, and other proposed. facilities would increase potential for impacts to known and unknown landslide and erosion prone areas Terrestrial Domain Core Topic: Timber

Alder Stands Stands along the rivers are declining due These stands may convert to brush if Evaluate these stands for current conditions in to age. left untreated for conifer or hardwood comparison to desired conditions, in terms of wildlife regeneration. and aquatics. Consider options for management: size of openings, possible timing and staggering of treatments Treat these stands to encourage the regeneration of hardwood or conifer seedlings.

Matrix polygons Several of these are not realistically Matrix acres may not be used for Trade some acreage in Matrix for other acreage in manageable for timber resources due to timber resources. Tonga Ridge area to increase the amount of forest their locations, small sizes, stand ages, product availability (huckleberries and Christmas trees) and compositions. and decrease the amount of Old Forest in Matrix.

Overstocked managed stands Stands may develop high H:D ratios and Desirable wildlife habitat Evaluate these stands for current conditions and growth may be reduced to lower than characteristics such as large trees desired conditions, in terms of wildlife habitat. desirable rates. may develop more slowly than possible, and development of some Treat those that may benefit wildlife habitat conditions old forest conditions may be delayed. with pre-commercial or commercial thinning.

Christmas Tree–producing Regeneration of young trees has Production of conifers suitable for Same as first two items above to manage the stands declined. Future stands will not be Christmas trees will decrease. Supply huckleberry and other stands partly for noble fir Christmas tree-sized. of Christmas trees will continue to Christmas trees. decrease. Recreation use associated with tree cutting may decrease.

Findings and Recommendations 124 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 28. Areas of overlapping concerns–findings and recommendations Items Of Concern Or Interest Future Trends Consequences Management Recommendations Overlap Area #1: Road 6412 Human and Aquatic Domains Human

Demand for roaded dispersed Recreation use will continue for Garbage dumping, Provide for public safety and resource protection. recreation activities, such as group camping, escalating law Increase presence of USFS officials. Insure toilet picnicking, berry picking, and driving enforcement problems, facilities are installed and maintained at for pleasure. and uncontained trailheads. human wastes.

Aquatic

A moderate degree of culvert failure Durations and magnitudes of peak flows Roads damaged from Upgrade drainage system on road to be more resistant and/or slumping of road prism would likely be greater in future due to storms will continue to be to storm damage. currently due to steep slopes and predicted climate change, which would acute and chronic sources relatively unstable soils, with increase probability of sediment from road of sediment, degrading Increase regular annual maintenance to promptly consequent risk of degradation of prism being delivered to stream channel. riparian and instream correct any new problems with the road prism and riparian in instream habitats. habitat. Instream habitat drainage system. may be insufficient in quality or quantity to support current populations during or after storm events, or during low summer baseflows. The road system will continue to require repairs after some large storm events, and the frequency and/or magnitude of such repairs may increase.

Findings and Recommendations 125 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 28 (continued). Areas of overlapping concerns–findings and recommendations Items Of Concern Or Interest Future Trends Consequences Management Recommendations Aquatic, Terrestrial, and Human Domains Aquatic

Road Impacts on aquatic Relatively high risk of degradation of Same as Road 6412 Upgrade drainage system on road to be more resources riparian and instream habitat from (above). resistant to storm damage. surface erosion off Road 68 and Same as road 6412 (above). Increase regular annual maintenance to correct some of its arterials, especially promptly any new problems with the road prism relative to storm damage. Similar and drainage system. trends as with Road 6412.

Terrestrial

Open road impacts on terrestrial Slight habitat degradation will Low mobility species resources continue due to excess or open (salamanders, mollusks, roads. Forest Roads Analysis says to etc.) will continue to be decommission Roads 310 and 210 off faced with isolation. Miller River Road 6410. Dispersal of amphibian species will continue to Some roads may access stands be inhibited. Habitat eligible for timber management. capability for species such as marten and fishers will continue to decrease. Ungulates will continue to avoid area. Human Impacts from dispersed The usual dispersed recreation Garbage dumping, Provide for public safety and resource protection. recreation. activities will continue with or without escalating law Increase presence of USFS officials. Insure toilet a road—berry picking, firewood enforcement problems, facilities at trailheads. gathering, other forest products. More human wastes roads exist than are needed to uncontained. support expected uses. Six permanent benchmark ecologic sites. CONCLUSION: SOBIESKI MOUNTAIN AREA IS NOT A COMPOSITE AREA OF CONFLICT BETWEEN TWO OR MORE DOMAINS

Findings and Recommendations 126 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

Table 28 (continued). Areas of overlapping concerns–findings and recommendations Items Of Concern Or Interest Future Trends Consequences Management Recommendations B. Tonga Ridge area Aquatic

High aquatic risk from sediment Relatively high road density (average 3.4 Same as Terrestrial Decommission or storm-proof (or close, relocate, coming off the main and spur roads, miles per square mile) in high aquatic risk (below), except habitat stabilize, or upgrade) the roads. and possible high road density, above will continue to cause sediment to come would be susceptible bull trout refugia, in the Foss River off the main and spur roads, and deliver during high storm events system. sediment to aquatic habitat. and low base flows.

Terrestrial

High road density Relatively high road density (average 3.4 Degraded habitat would Improve habitat to head off potential T&E listing of miles per square mile) will continue to not provide sufficient other species that are now sensitive. cause habitat degradation for TES wildlife habitat for these species, species (below 4500’)--potentially spotted and would be susceptible owl and marbled murrelet. for periodic losses by storms, pathogens Slight habitat degradation will continue due to excess or open roads. Some roads may access stands eligible for timber management

Alder stands Stands in upland areas and riparian areas These stands may convert Evaluate these stands for current conditions in are declining due to age to brush if not treated for comparison to desired conditions, in terms of wildlife conifer or hardwood and aquatics. regeneration Consider options for management: size of openings, possible timing and staggering of treatments Treat these stands to encourage the regeneration of hardwood or conifer seedlings.

Findings and Recommendations 127 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis Table 28 (continued). Areas of overlapping concerns–findings and recommendations Items Of Concern Or Interest Future Trends Consequences Management Recommendations

Huckleberry–producing stands Conifer overstory will continue to expand Productivity of huckleberry Consider swapping some Matrix acres for LSR canopy and advance stands in seral stands will decrease. (estimated 190 acres) to enable stand management stage. Recreation use associated to occur in this watershed while also providing more with berry gathering may consolidated Late-Successional timber (a subject for decrease, along with Forest Plan amendment or Revision). decrease in local biodiversity represented Conduct some beneficial management in the by flowering berry huckleberry stands to enhance productive component. huckleberry stands.

Christmas Tree–producing stands Regeneration of young trees has declined. Production of conifers Same as # 1 and # 2 above to manage the Future stands are not likely to be suitable for Christmas huckleberry and other stands partly for noble fir Christmas tree-sized. trees will decrease. Christmas trees. Supply of Christmas trees will continue to decrease. Recreation use associated with tree cutting may decrease.

Human

Historic resources are impacted due Continued loss and adverse impacts to Historic resources are Continued loss and adverse impacts to historic to recreation (and administrative and historic resources. impacted due to resources. other) access and use. recreation (and administrative and other) access and use.

Demand for roaded dispersed Recreation use will continue for activities, Demand for roaded Recreation use will continue for activities, such as recreation such as group camping, picnicking, berry dispersed recreation group camping, picnicking, berry picking, driving for picking, driving for pleasure. pleasure.

Access to trailheads Puget Sound population is projected to Increased resource and Provide continued or expanded access to approved increase. Recreation day use is projected social impacts on easy trailheads. to increase while extended backcountry and day-use trails, rivers, trips would decrease. lakes, other accessible attractions.

Findings and Recommendations 128 Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Miller-Foss Watershed Analysis

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