AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean
Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC/START/TWAS)
ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TOURISM IN SMALL ISLAND STATES BASED UPON FIELD STUDIES IN SEYCHELLES AND COMOROS
May 6, 2002
Final Submission
Full Project Proposal by the Ministry of Environment (Seychelles) and Ministry of Environment (Comoros) in collaboration with the National University of Singapore, University of Ulster, and University of Kalmar.
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Table of Contents
PROJECT SUMMARY...... 3 Project Coordination:...... 3 Project Synopsis:...... 3 PROJECT DESCRIPTION...... 5 Project Context...... 5 Project Rationale and Theoretical Basis ...... 6 OBJECTIVES AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS...... 14 Primary Objectives and Main Outputs:...... 14 Project Justification...... 15 Participating Researchers and Institutions...... 16 Technical Approach...... 19 Capacity Building ...... 29 Relevance to decision making ...... 30 References...... 31 Project Budget: SEYCHELLES ...... 38 Project Budget: COMOROS...... 39 Indicative Work Plan ...... 41 Annex 1: Seychelles: Investigator Current & Pending Support ...... 42 Annex 1: Comoros : Investigator Current & Pending Support...... 45 Annex 2: Letters of Endorsement ...... 45 Annex 3 Seychelles CV format...... 46
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PROJECT SUMMARY
Title: ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TOURISM IN SMALL ISLAND STATES BASED UPON FIELD STUDIES IN SEYCHELLES AND COMOROS
Project Coordination:
INSTITUTION: COORDINATOR: The Seychelles Climate Centre Rolph Payet (Ministry of Environment) Director General P.O. Box 677 Policy, Planning and Services Division Victoria Ministry of Environment Mahe, SEYCHELLES
Project Synopsis:
Tourism is by far the most important economic sector in many small island states, including those in the Indian Ocean, and is highly dependent upon the resources that will be affected by climate change (Perez, 1999). The islands lack natural resources and are dependent on tourism as a major source of foreign exchange. Tourism is also a major employment generator, with high multiplier effects in many island states. Such dependence on one single economic sector emphasises the high vulnerability of island states should climate change severely affect the tourism industry.
The impact of climate change on coastal tourism is the focus of this project for several reasons. (i) Tourism forms a vital socio-economic basis of many island states, (ii) Literature and research is very poor on this particular area of climate change impacts, (iii) The project provides a good field approach for involvement of stakeholders, (iv) Tourism operators are usually the front-line stakeholders involved in adaptation decision-making at the local scale and (v) The project allows the evaluation of autonomous responses by stakeholders and see how an integrated decision framework may be relevant. The research project is well integrated, across a variety of specialties from coastal management, climate scenarios, social research, marine resources and ecological economics. Since tourism is the primary economic driver in most island states, experience gained can be easily shared.
Research on the impact of climate on tourism dates from the early seventies was oriented towards the development of an index, which attempted to synchronise the location and its climate with appropriate forms of tourism. With the advancement of technology to provide a better understanding of the relationships between climate and tourism and appropriate adjustments and adaptations options, early action can be implemented to effectively reduce the impact of climate change on tourism, hence the economic vulnerability of the island states.
The research project encompasses several phases and specialist studies to be undertaken over a period of three years (2002-2004). The project will have four main components based on the framework proposed by Klein and Nicholls (1999) with methodology refinement, analysis of impact and adaptation of the tourism sector to future climate change, capacity building and a stakeholder involvement framework as cross-cutting activities.
The research project will be implemented by a multidisciplinary team, with up to five international experts and six local experts from Seychelles, and possibly nine experts from Comoros. The Ministry of Environment in Seychelles, the Ministry of Environment in Comoros in partnership with the National University of Singapore, University of Ulster and the University of Kalmar, will manage the project.
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Goals and Objectives: The goal of the project is develop and test a quantitative and stakeholder-driven vulnerability assessment process, with emphasis on developing an adaptation decision framework to address the impacts of climate change on tourism-dependent coastal resources.
The project has four main research objectives:
1. Adapt and refine the Klein and Nicholls (1999) vulnerability assessment and adaptation methodology to undertake a realistic assessment of the impact of climate change on tourism of small island states;
2. Develop, using established methodologies, a stakeholder participation and capacity building framework within a structured process of scenario development and vulnerability assessment in determining future impacts of climate change on small island communities;
3. Advance the knowledge on the inter-relationships between a socio-economic sector, tourism, and climate change, and how these can be used to improve adaptation to climate change in small island states;
4. Develop a multi-stakeholder-enhanced adaptation decision framework, with a process of continuous evaluation which seeks to integrate stakeholder and quantitative research approaches.
Outputs: The main project outputs are:
1. A refine methodology for implementation and assessment of climate change impacts in small islands, which can be applied in other sectors; 2. A set of scenarios that can be further refined by national experts within the adaptation framework 3. Increased knowledge on how to practically include stakeholders in the vulnerability and assessment (V&A) process. 4. A consistent set of transferable tools for V&A with specific applications to both coastal and tourism climate adaptation management. 5. Quantitative and qualitative insight into the linkages and impacts of climate change on tourism in small island states; 6. An approach and methodology for involvement of stakeholders in the assessment and adaptation to climate change process in small islands; 7. Capacity building for local experts and stakeholders in the implementation of the various techniques and increase awareness of climate change issues. 8. A stakeholder forum in place to establish a sustainable adaptation re-evaluation process to keep pace with the dynamics of the climate and the coastal area. 9. Series of peer-reviewed publications on the results of the project. 10. A government and stakeholder dialogue on V&A issues in place.
COUNTRIES AND SECTORS COVERED: The Indian Ocean Region, with field studies in Seychelles (Mahe & Praslin islands) and Comoros (Grand Comore, Anjouan & Moehli islands) focusing on the coastal and marine environment, stakeholders, and the tourism sector.
BUDGET: Total: $ xxx. Requested from AIACC: $xxx. Other sources: $xxx
DURATION: 3 years
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PROJECT DESCRIPTION
Project Context
Of the 36 countries with coastlines in the Indian Ocean, only four can be categorised as small island states (SIDS), namely Comoros, Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles. They are exclusive holiday destinations mainly for tourists from Europe, although they have different demographic, socio-economic and tourism characteristics as summarised in table 1.
Table 1. Characteristics of the Small Island States in the Indian Ocean.
Comoros Maldives Mauritius Seychelles Demographics Population (millions, 1998) 0.7 0.3 1.1 0.08 Population growth rate 3.2 3.0 1.1 1.1 (1975-1998) Land Area (km2) 2,236 300 1,865 443
Length of coastline (km) 350 644 200 600
Economy GDP (US$ billions, 1998) 0.2 0.4 4.2 0.5
GNP (per capita US$,1998) 370 1,130 3,730 6,420 Imports of goods and services (% 41.9 ~90 65.0 87.4 GDP, 1998)
Tourism % GDP (1999) 11% 56% 28% 21% No. of Visitors (1997) 26,000 366,000 536,000 128,258 Tourist receipts (% GNP) 10.6 95.0 15.7 34.6 Source: UNDP 2000 HDI report; Hatziolos et al., 1996; World Bank, 1997; Westmacott et al., 2000.
The Comoros and Mauritius have volcanic origins, the Maldives are entirely made up of coral atolls (about 1190 atolls), and Seychelles has both granitic and coral islands (115 in total). Altogether the islands span from 5 degrees north of the equator (Maldives) to more than 20 degrees south of the Equator (Mauritius), exhibiting subtle differences in climate phenomena, controlled by two main monsoon seasons, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which in turn drive the dominant ocean currents. Extreme events such as cyclones affect Mauritius and Comoros in the South, and the Maldives in the North. Due to its position close to the equator, cyclonic activity has not occurred in Seychelles, but not extreme events such as flash floods and wave surges.
If the socio-economic impacts of climate change are ranked against the coastal biophysical effect, tourism is seen as one of the sectors likely to be severely affected (Klein & Nicholls, 1998 & Bijlsma, et al., 1995). However, little research has been done to identify the extent of this impact.
Seychelles and the Comores, which serve as field sites, have similarities in coastal morphology and management issues, but with quite different development approaches and intensity of tourism. The stakeholder hierarchy is also different, with traditional customs and values much stronger in the Comoros than in Seychelles (Payet, 2002)
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Table 2 Coastal specificities of the project field sites
Coastal Present Past Impact Tourism Stakeholder characteristics Coastal assessments intensity Hierarchy Problems Comoros Volcanic island Beach National 0.03 tourists Indigenous with beaches, erosion, Communication per capita, community group, rocky, & coastal (in prep.) private sector, mangroves development, NGO’s, coastal Government pollution Seychelles Granitic island Beach Submitted Nat. 1.6 tourist per Local community with beaches, erosion, Communication, capita groups, private rocky coast, & coastal SURVAS sector, NGOs, mangroves development, Project, Government land use Qualitative V&A. Source: Payet 2002
Chapter 17 on Small Island States in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC, 2001), argues that a high proportion of tourism in small island states is dependent on visitors from Europe to escape cold weather conditions. But, it is clear, that these tourists are very selective on where they eventually go. It is widely accepted that tourism in many small islands states is currently dependent upon three main environmental variables – favourable climate, environment quality and resource diversity. Information on how climate change will impact on these variables, and a process for adaptation decision-making are therefore vital for the future prosperity and survival of small island states.
On the need for a common and regional approach to integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) the Arusha conference (Linden 1993) formulated 21 recommendations, of which the following three are to be included as a major component in the project.
1. Degradation of the coastal zone is perceived as a real economic loss and must be addressed with policy changes and investments. 2. Sectoral integration should be initiated to facilitate ICZM planning and action. 3. Involvement of stakeholder communities and private enterprise in coastal zone decision- making management should be achieved.
Project Rationale and Theoretical Basis
1. Linkages between climate and tourism resources
Although there are linkages between climate and tourism, research into such relationships is limited and confined largely to temperate regions where seasonality plays an important role in tourism (Crowe, 1975). Many island states are located within the tropics and the effect of climate variability within coastal regions is deemed more important.
Research in the 1970s on how climatic variations affect the tourism industry is summarised by Mings (1978). It focuses primarily on the spatial distribution of tourism rather than its temporal dimension. Crowe (1975) classified parts of Canada into factor classes to suit winter and summer outdoor activity potentials. He based his classification on three factors in each season, i.e. length of day, temperature and wind in winter, and temperature, cloud cover and wind in summer. These activity potentials were subsequently modified to establish climatic zones in various locations. Another approach in Canada (Harker, 1973) made use of seven factors with different weightings assigned to the values, which resulted in a map indicating climatic suitability for tourism in various parts of the country. The resulting map also
6 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean corresponded to areas historically known for its high tourism potential. Attempts to use this approach in summer climates were undertaken by Besancenot et al. (1978) in the Mediterranean region. In this approach each of the six parameters (sunshine hours, cloud cover, maximum temperature, wind speed, vapour pressure, and precipitation) was further divided into a range of values, based upon actual daily recorded values instead of monthly means. Climate variability was also determined by the use of the coefficient of variation. Besancenot et al. concluded that variability diminishes where climatic conditions are the most favourable. However, further work undertaken by Dauphine and Ghilardi (1978) in the Cote D’Azur showed that the extent of seasonal variability depends also on the type of parameters used and the season.
Using a model of heat balance of the human body, Yapp and McDonald (1978) proposed another approach to establish the recreational comfort index by determining the frequency of climate conditions favouring different tourist activities such as sun-bathing, swimming and fishing.
Recent work has focussed on temporal changes in the climate, mainly arising from the increase in extreme weather conditions globally, and the predicted impacts of climate change should greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue at an unprecedented rate. Climate change will also impact the tourism industry indirectly through changes in water and vegetation, health as well as through wider-scale socioeconomic changes, e.g. fuel prices and patterns of demand for specific activities or destinations (Pearce, 1998). New competition from other tourist locations as climates change (particularly on seasonal time frames), especially in relation to northern vacation periods, will also significantly influence the competition between destinations.
Research undertaken by Department of the Environment, Regions and Transport (DETR) in the UK (DETR. 1999) show a set of 34 ‘impact’ indicators of climate in the UK, two of which are related to tourism: domestic holiday tourism indicator and the Scottish Skiing industry indicator. The domestic holiday indicator is based upon the sensitivity to climate of the number of domestic trips taken by British residents. Temperature appeared to be the most important climate variable influencing annual domestic holiday tourism, as correlations show that over a 23-year period there was a clear relationship between July temperatures and domestic holiday trips.
A study on the effects of climate change on tourism in the US prairies (IISD, 1997) clearly recognised that the impact on the resource base will have a direct impact on the tourism industry. In fact, it concludes that ‘without knowledge of the interaction between this sector (tourism & recreation) and climate change, communities could be making an economic choice that can potentially be undermined by the weather and climate change’.
A recent study undertaken by Viner and Agnew (1999) considered the impacts of climate change on tourism in 15 countries, including the Maldives as an island state. The main impacts identified on the Maldives were sea-level rise, elevated sea-surface temperatures, and seawater intrusion of coastal lands, all of which will have an impact on both tourism infrastructure and activities. While the study is useful, it is very superficial and based upon estimates from Global Circulation Models (GCMs), with no recourse to validation against local data and a thorough evaluation of the linkages.
Following the severe coral bleaching in the Indian Ocean, as a result of the 1997/1998 El Nino event, a socio-economic study was undertaken by Westmaccott et al., (2000) to assess the impacts of the coral bleaching on reef-based tourism. Questionnaire surveys were undertaken, followed by economic analyses based upon the contingent valuation method to determine the financial and economic cost of the coral bleaching in the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Kenya and Tanzania. The results showed a potential financial loss of more than US$3 million for the Maldives. However, with climate change predicted to have an impact on almost every aspect of island states, the options for alternative types of tourism as well as adaptability maybe severely compromised.
Changes in the resource base that supports tourism will therefore have an impact on tourism, but we do not know how and what to measure. For example coastal erosion as a result of the intensity of wave
7 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean action, or coral bleaching as a result of elevated sea-surface temperatures may severely hamper tourism efforts on many small island states, leading to losses in terms of tourism attractiveness (non-marketable resources) and revenue (marketable resources). A decrease in the natural “capital” of tourism (Krippendorf, 1984) will therefore have various indirect impacts, which may eventually result in an unfavourable tourist destination, and reduce adaptation capacity, in terms of options and capability.
The attractiveness of small island states with deserted beaches and long hours of sunshine is by far the most important factor considered by tourists when selecting get-away destinations. Changes in beach morphology and sunshine hours will likely affect the attractiveness of many locations. Improvements in home weather conditions will also decrease the relative attractiveness of the distant island destination. Therefore, it would be useful to consider the various conditions, which are essential precursors of tourism. These include (i) attractiveness, (ii) climate variability and change, (iii) reliability of services, (iv) environment integrity, and (v) resource availability.
In conclusion, it is clear that an understanding of the relationship between tourism and climate is not only dependent upon a set of climate variables over spatial or temporal scales, but also from a wider and integrated perspective, it should (i) involve stakeholders (ii) consider the socio-economic impacts and (iii) the impacts on natural capital, all of which are essential determinants for sustainable tourism development in small island states. Since tourists are concerned about how reliable the climate is in the holiday destination, it is important that further research is undertaken to understand the nature and implications of all these factors, with a view to develop the best adaptation frameworks for small islands.
2. Climate Change Scenarios for the Indian Ocean
The projected global rise of sea level of 5mm/yr ( ±2-9 mm/yr) is about two to four times greater than the rate experienced in the previous 100 years. (IPCC, 1996). In Seychelles, all the low-lying coral islands and the granitic islands with narrow low-lying coastal areas and steep hillsides are at high risk to sea-level rise. The Comoros are islands of volcanic origins with large coastal plains and steep hillsides, making them also at risk from sea-level rise. Whilst sea-level rise will cause severe damage to infrastructure and mobilize populations, other impacts of climate change are linked to changes in precipitation, which can also have serious impact on these island states.
Based on existing global models, the current scenarios of future climate change and variability in the Indian Ocean have a huge element of uncertainty. Nevertheless, it is however useful to utilize them within the context of the research project to ensure consistency as well as provide opportunities for further refinement of these projections. The recently published IPCC Third Assessment Report presents results of a model validation exercise based on seven coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for island regions. Of these models tested, five were found to simulate the broad features and of present-day climate over the Indian Ocean, namely the HadCM2(UK), ECHAM4 (Germany), CSIRO (Australia), CCSR/NIES (Japan), and CCCma ( Canada). Table 3 summarizes the mean climate change scenarios expected for island in the Indian Ocean for the period 2050 and 2080, using the results of the AOGCMs simulations.
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Table 3: Ensemble of climate change scenarios for small island states in the Indian Ocean for the 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099) as inferred from AOGCMs (numbers in brackets show deviation between model projections).
GHG GHG+A Annual mean temperature change (oC) 2040-2069 2.10 (±0.43) 1.64 (±0.23) 2070-2099 3.16 (±0.89) 2.61 (±0.65)
Annual mean precipitation change (%) 2040-2069 3.1 (±4.5) 1.6 (±3.9) 2070-2099 5.1 (±4.3) 4.3 (±4.9)
Seasonal mean temperature change (oC) 2040-2069 Dec-Feb 2.11 (±0.43) 1.67 (±0.15) Jun-Aug 2.09 (±0.44) 1.63 (±0.30) Seasonal mean temperature change (oC) 2070-2099 Dec-Feb 3.18 (±0.88) 2.61 (±0.60) Jun-Aug 3.16 (±0.91) 2.62 (±0.69)
Seasonal mean precipitation change (%) 2040-2069 Dec-Feb 3.5 (±6.0) 2.0 (±7.5) Jun-Aug -1.8 (±10.0) -4.7 (±4.5) Seasonal mean precipitation change (%) 2070-2099 Dec-Feb 5.9 (±10.3) 6.2 (±10.5) Jun-Aug -2.6 (±12.6) -5.9 (±7.4) GHG+A = GHG and Aerosols. (Source: IPCC, 2001)
3. The SRES Emission Scenarios
The IPPC commissioned the development of a new set of scenarios to explore future developments in the global environment with specific reference to the production of GHG (IPCC-TGCIA, 1999). The work resulted in the development of four scenario families, each with a storyline, as summarized in the figure below.
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Figure 1: Descriptive presentation of the four SRES storylines as interpreted by Lorenzoni et al, (2000) for the period 2025.
Source: Lorenzoni et al., 2000.
Whilst the new scenarios propose some new possibilities, including greater interaction with stakeholders, and its simplification in dealing with future states, they are still very much at the global level and local scales can vary significantly. Since at this stage, downscaling is not a recommended approach, in view of its technical involvement, the new SRES Scenarios will be utilized in a qualitative assessment involving stakeholders, following a similar process as described in Lorenzoni et al. (2000).
4. The Vulnerability Assessment Methodology
Initial approaches to the assessment of vulnerability culminated in the development of a Common Methodology (CM) (IPCC-CZMS, 1992). The Common Methodology (Seven Steps for the Assessment of Coastal Areas to Sea-Level rise) has been in place since 1991, and has been useful in generating a standard approach for comparing issues at a global scale. However, the Common methodology has met little use in small island states due to a number of factors discussed in Nichols (1998). Another six approaches were subsequently developed, which had numerous advantages and disadvantages when applied in a small island context. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach is summarized in the table below.
Recently, Klein & Nicholls (1999) presented a well-developed vulnerability assessment (VA) framework, which can be usefully adopted for a small island context. However, many aspects of this methodology have not been tested and addressed. These include (i) the development of a consistent set of biophysical and socio-economic scenarios relevant to coastal development; (ii) the lack of approach to involve stakeholders, and (iii) the role of stakeholders, in the light of quantitative results in negotiating ‘trade-offs’ in adaptation decision-making (Klein, pers. com. 2002). This project will attempt to address some of these issues, by focusing on an economic activity (to which stakeholders attach relevance and importance to) as opposed to the coastal system itself (which is indeed complex to understand).
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Table 4 Comparison of the various methods for Vulnerability Assessment
Source: Nicholls, 1998; Leatherman & Yoh, 1995; Yamada et al., 1995.
The proposed project will also provide further insight into the usefulness of this particular methodology in the assessment of impacts on a specific economic activity important for island states in the Indian Ocean. It’s usefulness as a basic flexible framework upon which research can be undertaken in areas where data availability is limited and the use of integrated models will also be evaluated and modifications recommended. Considerable emphasis will be placed upon developing an integrated stakeholder and quantitative research process.
The key to any climate impact analysis is the use of scenarios, with socio-economic and biophysical scenarios being the most common and form part of the current assessment methodology. These two scenarios distinguish the natural-system vulnerability from the socio-economic-system vulnerability to climate change, even though both are related and interdependent. Natural and socio-economic systems are increasingly being viewed as developing in a co-evolutionary manner (Turner, 1996a), but there is need to quantify those interactions.
Tol (1998) provides a detailed description of the scope and development of socio-economic scenarios for a variety of sectors, including the coastal zone. Whilst socio-economic scenarios can be developed to include almost everything, it is recommended that only the variables that are directly related to the subject
11 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean matter is considered. Furthermore, consistency needs to exist between socio-economic and climate scenarios. At this stage this presents a problem for the small island states in the Indian Ocean. It is envisaged that two models will be evaluated; the MINCAM model, to determine which one will be more relevant to the proposed research project.
Biophysical scenarios are essentially models used to evaluate the physical interactions of climate with the resource. Carter et al. (1994) classifies such models into empirical-statistical models and process-based models. Klien & Nicholls (1998) provide a rather detailed overview and comparison of various biogeophysical models that can be applied to identify the effects, including areas that will be at higher risk to the corresponding impacts.
To apply and evaluate these issues, real field case studies have been proposed in Seychelles and the Comoros. The project will therefore bring new knowledge on the issue of vulnerability assessment and adaptation in small island states.
5. Adaptation Decision-making Framework
The IPCC Technical Guidelines (Carter, 1994) provide an adaptation assessment framework, which has been used in a number of situations (IPCC–CZMS, 1990). Adaptation is concerned with autonomous or planned responses to both the adverse and positive impacts of climate change. Klein et al. (1998) identified a number of elements of adaptation that are not considered in existing VA guidelines. This project will therefore seek to address several of those issues (highlighted in bold),
· The interaction between climate change and other pressures (in this case tourism) in determining impact potential; · Public perception and awareness of climate change and its impacts; · Spatial and temporal planning of adaptation measures; · Mechanisms for public involvement; · Non-technical (i.e., economic, legal, institutional) aspects of adaptation; · Tools and procedures to evaluate adaptation performance.
This approach is based upon the expanded adaptation framework involving four steps-with feedbacks (figure 2) suggested by Klein et al (1998) and build an adaptation framework adapted to the current specificities of both island states.
Figure 2 A conceptual framework showing the iterating steps in coastal adaptation to climate change
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On the other hand, UNDP-GEF (2001) proposed a five-step adaptation policy framework aimed at enabling integration of adaptation policy into the national development process. These five steps include (i) scoping for existing assessments; (ii) engagement of stakeholders; (iii) assess current vulnerability; (iv) characterize future conditions with respect to risk and futures; and (v) prioritise policy and practice, which include identification and dissemination. Whilst the approach may be useful, it has some fundamental problems. First, stakeholder engagement should be from the very beginning of the VA, as proposed in this research project, and second, the actual decision-making process is not clear nor at which stage trade-offs are finalized.
6. Stakeholder Participation Process
Stakeholder involvement in the entire climate change adaptation process has only been recently recognised, although several tools were available within environmental management circles (e.g. see DFID, 1995). Stakeholders are vital in any decision-making framework especially in small island states where issues occur within a narrow space and with such impact intensity.
Previous attempts to include a stakeholder process in the VA methodology has been difficult due to the lack of suitable approaches and linkages. However, the proposed project argues that it is possible to involve stakeholders throughout the entire adaptation process, as it is only in this way that both the researcher and stakeholder can benefit form the process.
Important steps for stakeholder intervention have been provided for in the research proposal. These represent the interaction and decision point where participation is critical to the implementation of the methodology. An effort to document the process itself is also planned, combined with an approach for ‘evaluation’ which should be in place at the start of the project
Figure 3 A conceptual framework for participatory decision-making in Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change (adopted from REC, 1996)
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OBJECTIVES AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS
Primary Objectives and Main Outputs:
The goal of the project is to develop and test a quantitative and stakeholder-driven vulnerability assessment process, with emphasis on developing a sustainable adaptation decision framework to address the impacts of climate change on tourism-dependent coastal resources.
To advance the development and implementation of the research project, an approach based upon integration of the tourism perspective into the assessment process will be undertaken. It seeks to build upon previous work on the use and application of vulnerability assessment methodologies, and also capacity for implementation of a flexible but comprehensive approach to vulnerability assessment in coastal island areas. Whilst the proposed methodology has been presented and discussed, many of the tools to accomplish the elements of the methodology will continue to be evaluated during the project life. In contrast with many integrated assessment projects, the research project will also look at marine issues, such as coral reefs and marine protected areas, an important tourism revenue-earner in most island states.
Objective 1: Adapt and refine the Klein and Nicholls (1999) vulnerability assessment and adaptation methodology to undertake a realistic assessment of the impact of climate change on tourism of small island states;
To achieve this objective a number of activities is discussed in detail in the Technical Approach Section. Whilst the methodologies will be tried and tested using expert knowledge, some parts of the methodology assessment will be undertaken within a stakeholder process. The lessons learned would be used to modify or shortlist the appropriate tools and the extent to which they will be used. This process will also bring out specificities in each intended field study, so that the chosen methodology can be adequately modified. Criteria for evaluation of the methodology will also be developed.
Objective 2: Develop, using established methodologies, a stakeholder participation and capacity building framework within a structured process of scenario development and vulnerability assessment in determining future impacts of climate change on small island communities;
A major component of the research project will have at each stage of implementation predefined capacity building objectives. A structured approach to stakeholder involvement will also be developed and implemented. Opportunities to link capacity building and the stakeholder process to each step of the research from scoping to adaptation will be investigated. The innovations in project implementation will be focussed on determining how the stakeholder process can be better fitted within existing frameworks.
Objective 3: Advance the knowledge on the inter-relationships between a socio-economic sector, tourism, and climate change, and how these can be used to improve adaptation to climate change in small island states;
Based on new and improved tools, this objective will seek to use the scenarios in a manner that uncertainties can are validated. Innovation in developing a suitable model for tourism growth and development, will be undertaken through the establishment of a baseline, and then generate results for a future scenario. Emphasis would be placed on consistency between the global scenarios and local trends. Since the inter-relationship between tourism and climate is still poorly defined, several approaches using local climate data will be used to determine any correlations and influence that climate may have on coastal resources.
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Objective 4: Develop a multi-stakeholder-enhanced adaptation decision framework, with a process of continuous evaluation which seeks to integrate stakeholder and quantitative research approaches.
All aspects of the stakeholder process will be documented, and integration of the stakeholder activities within the adaptation framework will be done in manner that the framework can be tried and tested in other island states. In addressing key research gaps, a guide will be developed to summarise the use of all the tools as well as the various elements of the decision-making framework. An approach to adaptation continuous self-evaluation process will be developed.
Outputs: The main project outputs are:
11. A refine methodology for implementation and assessment of climate change impacts in small islands, which can be applied in other sectors; 12. A set of scenarios that can be further refined by national experts within the adaptation framework 13. Increased knowledge on how to practically include stakeholders in the vulnerability and assessment (V&A) process. 14. A consistent set of transferable tools for V&A with specific applications to both coastal and tourism climate adaptation management. 15. Quantitative and qualitative insight into the linkages and impacts of climate change on tourism in small island states; 16. An approach and methodology for involvement of stakeholders in the assessment and adaptation to climate change process in small islands; 17. Capacity building for local experts and stakeholders in the implementation of the various techniques and increase awareness of climate change issues. 18. A stakeholder forum in place to establish a sustainable adaptation re-evaluation process to keep pace with the dynamics of the climate and the coastal area. 19. Series of peer-reviewed publications on the results of the project. 20. A government and stakeholder dialogue on V&A issues in place.
Project Justification
The main reasons for the project are listed below and also highlighted in the literature review and critical assessment presented above.
1. Islands are expected to be the most affected by climate change, through sea-level rise, extreme weather and oceanographic conditions, coral bleaching, coastal inundation, and impacts on biodiversity.
2. The main economic sectors in island states are tourism and fisheries, implying that a crippling of these sectors will directly reduce the ability of these states to implement adaptation options.
3. Since climate change will also impact on the resources that the tourism economy depends upon, a thorough analysis of this relationship will provide clues to improved decision-making during adaptation.
4. The integrated approach, especially linking socio-economic resilience to adaptation, is seen as a key to the success of any adaptation option implemented.
5. Strengthening capacities in resource management and making use of optimal conditions and management approaches will equip island states with the expertise to adapt to climate change without day-to-day external intervention.
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Participating Researchers and Institutions
Project Management
The Project Coordinator, as per the financial rules of AIACC and START, will financially manage the project. The project will be subject to GEF-UNEP Financial requirements, and audited by agents appointed by UNEP-GEF. All disbursements will be made to the Ministry of Environment.
The project will be managed and implemented by the Ministry of Environment, Seychelles, through its specialised agencies: the Climate Centre and the Centre for Marine Research and Technology. The project coordinator shall keep accounts of all transactions and documents generated as a result of this project and shall remit all reports to the respective country governments as well as the sponsors.
The Project Coordinator will be Rolph Payet, a Seychelles citizen, and will be responsible for disbursement of funds for execution of the project. A part-time Clerk, who will draw an allowance from the project budget line, will assist the Project Coordinator.
Project Coordinator Implementing Agency Mr. Rolph Payet Ministry of Environment P.O.Box 677 P.O. Box 1145 Victoria, Mahe, SEYCHELLES Victoria, Mahe, SEYCHELLES Tel: (248) 224644; Fax: (248) 322945 Tel: (248) 224644; Fax: (248) 322945 Email: [email protected] Web: http://www.pps.gov.sc
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The names and affiliation of all the researchers are listed in the table below.
SEYCHELLES
INSTITUTIONS: RESEARCHERS: AREA OF EXPERTISE Climate Centre Mr Rolph Payet Project Management Seychelles Director General Impact Assessment P.O. Box 677 Policy Planning and Services Division Coastal Zone Management Mahe, Seychelles Email: [email protected] Sustainable Tourism Phone: (248) 224644/722915 Strategic management and Decision- FAX: (248) 322945 Analysis
Mr Wills Agricole Meteorologist, climatologist, climate scenarios
Mr Robert Lajoie Climatologist, sea-level rise, awareness and education
Coastal Zone Unit, Mr Alain Decommardmond Environmental Science, Seychelles Coastal processes Coastal erosion, Stakeholder Assessment
GIS Unit, Seychelles Mr Francis Coeur-de-Lion Forestry and Land Use change GIS and remote sensing Climate Change
Mr Michel Naletamby Tourism economics, development
National University of Prof Wong Poh Poh Climate and sea level change Singapore, Singapore Coastal geomorphology Coastal zone management Coastal tourism
University of Kalmar, Prof Olof Linden Marine biodiversity Sweden Coral Reefs Coastal Management Integrated Assessments
Dr Herman Cesar Environmental Economics Resource assessment and evaluation Tourism economics Coastal management Climate change economics University of Ulster, Dr Gonzalo Malvarez Coastal morphodynamics, Northern Ireland Oceanography GIS and remote sensing Sensitivity mapping and index Vulnerability assessment
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COMOROS
INSTITUTIONS: RESEARCHERS: AREA OF EXPERTISE University of Dakar Isabelle Niang-Diop Geology Coastal Erosion Coastal zone Management Vulnerability Assessment Adapation and technology transfer
Seychelles Rolph Payet See above National University of Prof Wong Poh Poh See above Singapore, Singapore
University of Kalmar, Prof Olof Linden See above Sweden Dr Herman Cesar
University of Ulster, Dr Gonzalo Malvarez See above Northern Ireland Ministry of Mr Yousouf Hamadi ( Local Co- No CV submitted Environment – ordinator) Comores Climatologist No CV submitted
Mohamed El Habib Coastal engineer Coastal geology
Economist No CV submitted
Farid Anasse Hamidoune (GIS Information systems Expert) Programmer GIS Climate Change Mapping Vulnerability Mapping
Said Ahmed Othman -Coastal Expert Natural Resources Management 1 (Grand Comores) Land use mapping Coastal management Remote sensing Data processing
Coastal Expert 2 (Moehli) No CV Submitted
Coast Expert 3 (Anjouan) No CV Submitted
Secretary No Cv Submitted
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Technical Approach
In the section on Project Rationale and Theoretical basis, a survey of most of the conceptual frameworks to be adopted within this research project was presented. However, the tools required to progress from one stage to the other within the framework needs to be further elaborated.
Definition of problem
Tourism is the mainstay of many small islands states, and is therefore a key factor in determining the sustainability of any adaptation measure. Since climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the performance of that sector, there is a need to determine impacts, and possible adaptation approaches with emphasis on stakeholder involvement.
The research project will be implemented in several phases, which will be interlinked and generate separate outputs over a period of three years, 2002 to 2004. The research project will be undertaken under 4 major components, following the VA framework proposed by Klein & Nicholls (1999).
Component 1: Scoping and Methodology Evaluation
The scoping stage will involve a four-step process.
Step 1: Geographic scaling and Assessment scope (include Screening Assessment) Even for a Small Islands situation a clear definition of the geographical boundary and level of assessment is required at the onset of the research project (Feenstra, 1998; Nicholls, 1996). Since the studies will focus on four islands, two within each country, it is important to characterize the actual field site. Field site characterization will be undertaken through the use of a screening assessment (SA) methodology, proposed by CPACC (1999) and modified to fit within the scoping needs. The screening assessment would be undertaken using existing data and the judgment of local experts to:
(1) Prepare an initial impact matrix and causal chain of the possible impacts of climate change on the coast as related to tourism (see step 3); (2) Identify data gaps and needs in the existing database required for the vulnerability assessment and other analyses.
The results of the SA can then be used to plan how the vulnerability analysis will be most effectively implemented, as well as show linkages with the stakeholder analysis.
Step 2: Data acquisition and management, including assessment of socio-economic conditions and tourism situation analysis. Using the results of Step 1, the available datasets and information required for the project will be collected and stored in Ms Excel, Access and even geographic information systems (GIS) format. These will include tourism statistics, climate data, geographical data and resource based data. Where available topographical or cartographic data will be utilized to display information, as well as present the analysis in GIS format. The data will eventually be compiled in a standard database accessible to the researchers during the research project. This database will then be handed over to the respective governments at the end of the project.
The tourism situation analysis will encompass collection on data based upon visitor statistics (e.g. market, occupancy), economic aspects (e.g. tourist spending, consumption, revenue, taxes), geographical components (e.g. coastline density, types, cartographic regionalisation) as well future plans within the sector, according to guidelines provided in Smith (1995)
Data gaps and additional data needs will be addressed in direct consultation with the sector experts. Provisions in the budget have been made for the primary data collection, but the fundamental approach of
19 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean this project is to identify and use existing (secondary information) that can continue to be collected cost- effectively, so that sustainability in long-term assessment can be maintained.
Step 3: Impact/Cause propagation scoping. Kitajima (1993) recognized that there is a certain chain of cause-effect in the impact occurrence process. The approach enables the researcher to develop a chain of changes and effects as the climate change impact moves from the biophysical system to the socio-economic and vice-versa. Several propagation chains will be constructed to determine scope of impact on the tourism sector. This approach is similar to the root-cause analysis framework (Turner, 1996b). In this project, the root causes are assumed to be the impacts of climate change on the coastal environment (physical) and local people (socio-economic).
Step 4: Stakeholder Analysis A stakeholder analysis is needed to understand the driving forces linking resource use and the human dimension, in terms of who is gaining and who is losing in the baseline and future scenarios, as well as the power of each stakeholder (Cesar, 2000). Stakeholders are those individuals or institutions who are affected (or are interested) by the problem/issue, either directly or indirectly, either positively or negatively. Since identification can be difficult a process (proposed by REC, 1996; Rietbergen- McCracken, 1996 & ODA, 1995) will be elaborated and applied to the climate change impact assessment process. The entire country team will undertake the Stakeholder analysis. A proper guidance document (extract given below) will be prepared and tested.
1 - Identifying Key Stakeholders
The purpose of this first step is to narrow the field of stakeholders from all those who potentially affect or are affected by the proposed project or program into the key stakeholders whose involvement will be sought. Questions to be addressed:
· Who are potential beneficiaries? · Who might be adversely impacted? · Have vulnerable groups been identified? · Have supporters and opponents been identified? · What are the relationships among stakeholders?
The list which results from this exercise can be input into a series of stakeholder matrix to organize information about interests, power, influence and involvement of each key stakeholder or group. A workshop involving all the stakeholders can thus be organised.
2 – Stakeholder Workshop
A stakeholder workshop will then be organised to:
1. Determine Stakeholder Interests – using simple qualitative tools such as access to beneficiary assessment, access to resources analysis and brainstorming.
2. Determine Stakeholder Power and Influence – using tools such as wealth ranking, role-playing to determine relationships between various stakeholders, ally-opponent analysis
3. Formulate a Stakeholder Participation Strategy - The strategy derived from the workshop activities is to provide the project team with specific guidance on the level and timing of stakeholder intervention in the research project.
To integrate the various results of Component 1, a special session after the stakeholder workshop will be held for all team members. Issues to be addressed will include modifications to the methodology, stakeholder input into the scoping and SA process, and integrating the participation strategy in the project implementation.
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Component 2: Scenarios for Vulnerability Assessment
This component will focus on field research and analysis within the identified boundaries (Component 1). Whilst there is a range of tools available to conduct the various field studies and analysis, their selection was based upon a review of past work in the field, especially in the Caribbean (Nicholls, 1998) and Pacific (McLean & Mimura, 1993). The approach is based on two key strategies: (i) definition of the assessment framework; and (ii) adoption of the tools that would generate results and also link the various stages defined within the assessment framework.
Assessment Framework: The theoretical foundation is discussed in the relevant section of this document. As suggested, this project will make use of the Klein & Nicholls (1999) framework, with modifications focused on:
1. The results of component 1 of this project, to incorporate the stakeholder process. 2. Specific insertion of activities to be undertaken with and by stakeholders, including integration with the SRES climate scenarios. 3. Bridge the methodological inconsistencies between the use of global scenario generated datasets (at global levels) and local data/stakeholder perceptions (local level), without resorting to complex approached such as downscaling, etc.
Assessment Tools: The assessment tools will be grouped into four categories: climate, socio-economic, biogeophysical and stakeholder. Efforts will be made to ensure these tools complement one another, as results will be used in a step-by-step manner, with periodical checks for consistency. Where possible sensitivity analysis will be done.
Step 1: Climate change scenarios
Assessments of climate change impacts at local level not only needs local information but also robust descriptions of future national and regional climates at the finest possible spatial and temporal scales (Hulme et al., 2000). MAGICC is a simple climate model, which provides projections of global mean temperature and sea level changes over a period of 1990 to 2100. To undertake the climate change impacts assessment both climate and non-climatic scenarios for the future will be utilised as well as observed data describing present-day climate. The table 7 below summarises the data needs and approaches required for the climate scenario analysis.
A model validation exercise undertaken for island regions, including the Indian Ocean region, indicated that five AOGCMS, HadCM2 (UK), ECHAM4 (Germany), CSIRO (Australia), CCSR (Japan) and CCCma (Canada) demonstrate the climatology of the islands (Lal et. al., 2001). Besides model evaluation, other criteria adopted in the choice of scenario include model resolution and model representativeness. Three models ECHAM4, HadCM2 and CSIRO will be used to represent future climate variables critical for tourism on small islands. The variables include sea-surface temperature, precipitation, sea level change and wave intensity.
The scope of the future climate modelling would focus only within those specified boundaries, i.e. 5o N to 15o S, 35o W to 60o E, covering both Seychelles and the Comoros, both located to the east of Africa. Ideally, a resolution of 0.2 degrees of latitude and longitude would have been ideal, but MAGICC is limited to 5 degrees.
SCENGEN (Hulme, 2000) is a climate scenario generator that uses data generated by MAGICC. The current spatial resolution of SCENGEN, at 0.5o makes it a bit too vague to reflect changes on Seychelles and the Comoros. Using regional data in East Africa (Kenya-continental and Seychelles-island) a more useful regional GCM change can be generated. This approach was explored in the AIACC workshop on climate scenarios, and it was agreed it would be too costly to generate 0.2 degrees results, so 0.5 degree modelling will be used ( Wills Agricole, pers com., 2002)
Table 7
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Scope Description Criteria/Notes References/Sour ce No. of Scenarios 1. IS92a -average ref scenario Kattenberg, 1995 2. SRES Story-lines: A1, A2, -can involve Nakicenovic, 2991 B1, B2. stakeholders input 3. Incremental Scenario -for SLR on the coast Perez, 1999 Non-climate data 1.Population = yr 1776-2000 -coastal density Statistics Division, required 2.GNP = yr 1980-2000 -GNP of tourism SEY 3. Energy intensity = yr1990- -energy use SEY GHG 1999 Emissions National Report Local climate data Rainfall = yrs 1880-1971; -to validate model Payet, 1998. 1972-2000 outputs Seychelles Temperature = yrs 1880- National 1971; 1972-2000 Meteorological SST – satellite data Services -Bracknell Met. Office, UK. Spatial resolution 0.5 to 0.2 degrees Lat./Long. -estimate based upon Hulme, 2000 model/scenario constraints
Change in Climate Variability -shifts in weather German WBGU, patterns 1998 Extreme -probability, risk factor Scale of data Annual change -every ten year runs IPCC,2001 needed Monthly means -for finer scale analyses Anomalies -departures from the yearly means Required Climate 1. Sea-surface temperature - coral bleaching, Hoegh-Guldberg, variables (mean, max., 1 oC above thermal expansion, 1999 annual monthly maximum) Goreau, 1994 2. Precipitation (monthly -water resources, mean, extreme) tourist season 3. Sea-level rise -coastal impacts World Bank, 2000 4. Wave (max intensity, -coastal impacts monthly mean. AOGCMs/GCM ECHAM4/OPYC3 -can simulate ENSO. Bacher, 1998. HadCM2 -SLR projections Nicholls, 1996 CSIRO -SST, etc. Gordon, 1997
Step 2: Biogeophysical scenarios
Biogeophysical models will be used to evaluate the interactions and impact of the projected climate change on the coastal environment. Since the majority of tourism development is local it is assumed that all impacts on the coastal zone will directly and indirectly affect the tourism industry. It is also important to analyse the extent of these impacts on the field site before socio-economic impacts can be assessed. Table 8 below summarises the main biogeophysical effects on coastal tourism, and presents the main tools that will be used.
Table 8 Summary of tools for the Impact Assessment
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Impacts Links to tourism Biophysical Tool Reference Sea-surface temperature 1. Decrease in live Loss of revenue SST correlations with Hoegh-Guldberg, coral cover by from diving. etc. bleaching events 1999 bleaching events Weakened Brown, 1996 coastal defense Grigg, 1984 2. Altered tidal range Flooding of Flood frequency data coastline Dune erosion 3. Storm intensity Loss of Wind Speed and SST Emanuel, 1987 infrastructure Precipitation 1. Flooding or drought Flooding of Runoff model Yates, 1994 coastal infrastructure Sea-level change 1. Lowland inundation Loss of property, AVVA ( if there is lack Leatherman, 1995 coastal habitats of local data - Nicholls, 1995 Comoros)
GIS Spatial Analysis Gorman, 1998 using digital orthophotos in Seychelles1
2. Shoreline erosion Loss of beach Shoreline recession Nicholls, 1998 model based upon Bruun, 1988 Bruun’s rule 3. Storm-surge flooding Loss of coastal Shoreline recession Nicholls, 1998 infrastructure model based upon Bruun’s rule 4. Altered tidal range Flooding of Flood frequency data coastline Dune erosion Wave height 1. Coastal erosion Loss of beach, Wave height Hoozemans, 1993 land & extrapolation Kaplin, 1995 infrastructure 2. Overtopping Damage to Wave height Hoozemans, 1993 coastal extrapolation Jimenez, 1997 infrastructure 1 Maps (for the field sites and where the data is available) will be created at 1 m resolution with the zero elevation contours assumed to be the base shoreline. The resulting maps give a sense of the spread of tourism development and populations living near the coasts which are most likely to be subjected to sea-level rise and increased frequency and severity of coastal storm events.
Step 3: Socio-economic scenarios (consistent with global story-lines)
Socioeconomic scenarios describe the state of the country in terms of population, economic state, social state as well as resources uses. Such scenarios also provide the context in which climate change will have an impact (Tol, 1998). Therefore, to construct reliable scenarios the data have to be of sufficient quality. A series of papers, including a number of National Communication were reviewed and found to lack a consistent and in-depth approach to socio-economic scenarios. In developing and choosing the scenarios, therefore, the following lessons learned from the UKCIP process (UKCIP, 2001) were adopted:
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1. Relevant (applicable to public and private sector decision-making). 2. Consistent (based on coherent assumptions). 3. Credible (not over-estimating the rate of change). 4. Transparent (clear exposition of assumptions).
The development and choice of socioeconomic scenarios for the problem in question followed a basic methodological approach:
1. Choice of Scenarios-Storylines
More and more climate and socio-economic scenarios are being used to investigate climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptive responses, but since scientists and modelers have developed them, there have been little contributions from other stakeholders. The proposed approach is to advance a methodology for involving stakeholders to reflect about climate impacts on tourism activities, in an effort to understand the linkages and feedbacks within and between the human and the natural systems. The new SRES scenarios would be ideal for this, as it is based upon tangible story lines, which can be adapted to the local setting (Lorenzoni et al., 2000).
Consequently, the choice of scenarios will be based upon a review of the SRES main storylines (Nakicenovic et al., 2000) to create a local set of future states, with stakeholder input (Lorenzoni, 2000). The Delphi approach (Green, 1990) would be used to facilitate adaptation of the SRES storylines using a predefined questionnaire. The analysis will be done on the global and local storylines.
Figure 4: Setting baselines for Climate change impacts
Climate Scenario
Socio-economic scenario Baseline/Current Baseline/Future Climate Climate Population Population Economic State Economic State Social State Social State Resource Use Resource Use Tourism state Tourism state Future Society/Current Future Society/Future Climate Climate Population Population Economic State Economic State Social State Social State Resource Use Resource Use Tourism state Tourism state
2. Characterize the socio-economic baseline and generate long-term socio-economic data series
The socio-economic baseline will be based on five global variables: population, economic state, social state, and resource use. Numerous studies have indicated that small island states have certain specificities, and attempts have be made at quantifying them, e.g. the vulnerability index. This sensitivity needs to be reflected in the choice of variable or proxy values. The population variable will make use of long-term population census data available for both Seychelles and Comoros. The economic state will use XXX (PPP) as proxy values while the social state would incorporate the indicators utilized to aggregate the UNDP Human Development Index (UNDP, 2000). The HDI makes use of three indicators: life expectancy at birth, literacy rates, and PPP). The tourism state will be generated by the established tourism forecast-gravity model (Smith, 1983; Smeral et al., 2000). To establish the baseline for resource
24 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean use, economic valuation techniques will be used to value both marketable and non-marketable coastal resources (Turner, 1995). To determine the various levels of resource use and net benefits to the society, under the various socio-economic scenarios, the parameters include tourism infrastructure and services (include cost of management) and coastal recreational resources (land, coastal biodiversity, beach, coral reefs, fisheries).
3. Run and establish time intervals for the projections
In view of the involvement of stakeholders in the process, projections at ten-year intervals are proposed, up to 2050. This will be consistent with both the climate scenario and biophysical analysis scales. The socioeconomic scenarios will be run using traditional forecasting tools, and the results compared. The table below provides a summary of these forecasting tools.
Variable Forecast method Reference Notes Population growth 1. People Ver 3 ODA Comparison between 2. IISA POP IISA both methods PPP HDI Tourism growth 1. Gravity model Smith, 1995 Assume close 2. Global forecasts Smeral, 2000 correlation with global growth Resource Use ( Total 1. NPV estimates of Moberg, 1999 Benefits and costs will Economic Value tourism infrastructure Hodgson,1999 be expressed at base & services) Turner, 1995 year 2. CVM utility values Bunce, 2000 Also calculate/assume associated with Wilkinson, 1999 carrying capacity recreational resources limits to recreational resources
Travel cost method
4. Calibration and validation statistics
Calibration and validation of the models would be undertaken using the results of observed versus modeled data for each socio-economic variable, by computing the correlation coefficients between the two results (Press et al., 1992). Validation would be undertaken using a short period of data. The analysis would be done on the basis of yearly data. To undertake comprehensive assessment of climate change, consistent descriptions of both climate and socio-economic futures will be maintained through the project implementation. Consistency is important because climate and society are co-evolving systems, each influencing the other, at least to some extent. UKCIP (2001) proposes some guidance on minimizing those inconsistencies, e.g. sensitivity analysis and common sense to address the issue of inconsistency between the IS92 and SRES scenarios.,
Step 4: Assessment of Vulnerability
The vulnerability of coastal tourism to climate change is a function of exposure to the physical factors, the robustness of the sector, and its ability to adapt. Impacts are estimated on the basis of differences arising from the biogeophysical effects and socio-economic vulnerability, projected from the baseline scenario to future scenarios. Since the impacts can be addressed through an adaptation framework, which in turn
25 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean should increase the natural resilience and coping ability of the coastal system, it is important to conceptualise the assessment of impacts over the long –term, as shown in the figure below.
Figure 5 Options in adaptation decision-making and the adaptation analysis cycle
Impacts Time N
Autonomous Full Adaptation N Adaptation N
Impacts Time 1 Impacts Time 1
Autonomous Full Adaptation 1 Adaptation 1 Baseline Impacts
Impacts relative to a fixed baseline will be done for a distant time 1, and subject to adaptation or not, future impacts at time N will need to be undertaken on the basis of a proper cycle of evaluation. The following approaches, which combine both qualitative and quantitative approaches to impact assessment will be adopted:
1. Checklists – One of the first activities in undertaking the impact assessment is to just list the impacts categories associated with climate change. This activity will be done with stakeholder participation through a brain storming exercise, and then the impacts can be grouped into distinct impact groups for ease of analysis. An extended version of the checklist as shown in the table below will be used.
Table 10 Example of a checklist for preliminary impact analysis
Impact Casual Nature of Timescale of Intensity of Probability Factor Impact Impact ( for Impact (likelihood of (How, when) how long) (strength) occurrence) Abnormal SST SST above Duration of >1m above 1 in 3 years, tides 30o C warming H.S.W. coinciding with event El Nino ??
2. Impact Matrices – These are grid diagrams to cross-reference a list of actions to a list of impact parameters. It is a quantitative as a well as a qualitative tool for consistency analysis, in particular to identify potential issues among various interacting sectors. The Leopold Matrix is one of the most widely used EIA techniques. It advocates an interaction matrix in which the existing characteristics of the environment are listed vertically, and proposed project actions are listed horizontally. A huge number of interactions are identified in the matrix. For each interaction a score for magnitude (scale of impact) and importance on a scale of 1 (least impact) to 10 (maximum impact) is given. Beneficial impact is denoted by a plus sign in the appropriate cell. An impact matrix is limited in that it does not indicate clearly indirect impacts ( Bisset,1996)
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3. Spatial analysis – Overlay techniques to show land use change in a one-dimensional as well as two-dimensional aspect will be used in the analysis of impacts. The use of the Geographic Information Systems will be used to facilitate this analysis. For example the affected coastal infrastructure and services required to support tourism will be overlayed with data to form the various scenarios of sea-level rise.
4. Coping Analysis – Before attempting the adaptation decision-making approach, it is important that a Coping Analysis is undertaken to understand the linkages between the impacts, or groups on impacts on various part of the coastal system. This will serve to incorporate the socio-economic and stakeholder perspective (step 1) into the analytical process. The table below summarises the key issues.
Impact System Non-marketable Marketable People Services Generic Category coping Assets at risk Assets at at risk at Risk coping range (if risk behavior available) (Burton, 1993) Ability to prevent impacts Ability to tolerate/absorb impacts Ability to share impacts Ability to change use or activity Ability to change location Ability to restore
Uncertainty
Various levels and types of uncertainty are involved in the Vulnerability assessment process, and they need to be addressed. Wathern (1988) provides an overview of these uncertainties and approaches to address them, as summarized in Table 12..
Table 12 Approaches to uncertainty reduction
Impact Assessment Main type of Final certainty by Way of reduction Process uncertainty Information Uncertainty of Implementation Improve research prediction Approach Uncertainty of values Decision taking Stakeholder involvement Decision Uncertainty of related Evaluation Co-ordination, decisions multidisciplinary Implementation
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However, much resources are required to address these levels of uncertainty in the proposed study. The proper development of the scoping (Component 1) and Scenario stakeholder development (Component 2) is an attempt at reducing uncertainty and inject some more realism in the VA process. Areas of known uncertainty will be recorded and notes provided on areas where the level of uncertainty is unknown.
Stakeholder Intervention
To sum up, stakeholder intervention is planned throughout the entire implementation of component 2. This important for several reasons:
1. To test the validity of stakeholder involvement in all stages of V & A. This will be done using a series of indicators to gauge stakeholder response and contribution (see DFID, 1995) 2. To build local capacity and buy-in. 3. To improve the results of the research project and bring more realism in advancing research on climate impacts in small island states 4. Sensitise coastal users, especially the hotel industry on the issues and impacts that will likely influence the coast in the near future.
Component 5: Adaptation Framework
Adaptation strategies to climate change on the coast and the tourism sector will explored in this component, through the use a several tools and stakeholder involvement. Whilst there are only three possible strategies to reduce impacts of climate change, Klein et al. (2000) propose an adaptation framework based upon four critical components: (i) information development and awareness; (ii) planning and design; (iii) implementation; and (iv) monitoring and evaluation. This cycle of improvement is common to the science of management.
However, before this cycle can be initiated a decision framework based upon the analysis and research activities undertaken in components 1 & 2 will have to be developed. Development of an appropriate multi-objective decision making framework is the key to effective information management, planning, implementation, conflicting resolution among stakeholders, achieving trading-offs, and continuous assessment of impacts of climate change. The process will allow options to be rigorously and transparently assessed by all stakeholders using the best knowledge available. Various tools for formulating and implementing adaptation options to climate change are available and reviewed in Feenstra et al., 1998. However, there is no consistent methodology which has been developed to ensure all issues are taken into consideration in the formulation of a workable adaptation decision framework (ADF). A six-step process towards a ADF is proposed and will be tested. The process is essentially a stepwise filtering process using a variety of decision analysis and management tools.
Step 1: Identification of adaptation options This first step will make the use of both the brain storming method as well as the Delphi technique. The objective is to get stakeholders to brainstorm about potential/feasible adaptation options. These will then be grouped into areas of interventions, as it is likely that these options will only focus on hard solutions only. A short version of the Delphi technique will also be undertaken, however with professionals involved in the sector. These will include coastal managers, planners, engineers, etc, to provide a balance insight into the process, especially on the various forms of adaptation proposed in literature (See IPCC CZMS, 1990). The results of both exercises will then be assessed on the basis of:
1. How it addresses the identified impacts 2. How it addresses interactions among impacts 3. How it addresses the coping capacity of the system 4. How it meets the four components of Klein’s et al. (2001) adaptation process.
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Step 2: Assessment to determine best use of resources and options A common decision analysis tool will be used to understake this assessment.. The Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) tool will be used to assess the various costs and benefits associated with a particular adaptation option (Smith et al., 1997). The data utilized to access the value of the coastal resources would be useful in this process, and the CBA will also have to take into consideration the non-marketable aspects of the natural resource. However, it will not be possible to undertake a CBA for all options proposed, due to limited resources.
Step 3 - Identification of Critical Success factors One of the major shortcomings of many ADF is a failure to address the proposed adaptation options in the light of factors, which are critical to achieving changes, whether it is autonomous or planned. A critical success factor analysis usually involves: (i) identification of the critical success factors (CSFs) through brainstorming with the stakeholders, and grouping into common groups of about six factors; (ii) identification of the underpinning competences which will be required to address those CSFs; (iii) identification of the time-bound actions to address those CSFs; and (iv) how these competences relate to the choice of options.
Step 4 – Plan for implementation After completion of the resource base analysis, there is a need to plan for the implementation of the adaptation framework. Usually plans involve projects and budgets, but in this step a tool called network analysis will be applied to adaptation planning. The technique involves breaking down implementation of the options into their component activities and then showing these activities in relation to one another as well as the time and resource required to complete each step.
Step 5 - Analyze potential policy outcomes and responses Whilst Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is commonly used to understand the nature of a decision problem, Brown (2001) proposed that MCA can effectively be used to support a process in which stakeholders can explore the outcomes and impacts of decisions made. To undertake the analysis, reference is made to the original scenarios defined for the research project. A set of criteria was also developed as part of the biogeophysical and socioeconomic assessments, which generated data for the baseline scenarios as well as for future states. The MCA part of the research will involve a 3-stage process: (i) development of weightings; (ii) stakeholder discussions on the main issues; and (iii) presentation and challenge of outcome. The development of the weightings would involve the stakeholders to weight their priorities among the criteria.
Capacity Building
A report was published by GEF-UNDP (Binger, 2000) presented the results of a comprehensive assessment of capacity development needs in small island states, with a section focusing on climate change. The report concluded that sectoral priorities for small island states within the Indian Region (Binger, 2000, Appendix 4, pg 209) are: (1) Tourism resources; (2) Biodiversity resources; (3) Climate change and sea-level rise; (4) Coastal and marine resources; (5) Freshwater resources; (6) Management of waste; (7) Natural and environmental disasters; (8) Land resources, and (9) Energy resources. The research activities will also be undertaken using in-country researchers affiliated with key institutions so that the capacity can occur at country level, through support by the partnering external universities and institutions. It is therefore imperative that this research project addresses this regional priority within the proposed research framework. The project will build capacity in seven main areas:
1. Developing skills in scoping scaling for preparation of baseline data acquisition and also setting boundaries to the system being studied. This is an important first step to approach complex problems. The training component will involve various preliminary exercises, followed by a training and discussion workshop.
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2. Involvement of stakeholders within all stages of the project, will require that everyone has a chance to comment on the methodology and also learn to organise participatory stakeholder groups. Participants will be trained in modern techniques of stakeholder involvement, conflict resolution and community based planning.
3. Regional training in the use of climate scenarios, the SRES scenarios, and using a simple approach to introduce concepts such as integrated assessment approaches. The use and application of the various scenarios will also be discussed at this seminar.
4. Within the impact assessment component, it is planned for specific training in the use of biophysical and socio-economic models for climate impacts. The training forums will be used to evaluate those tools using real data and also brainstorm on how to improve the validation of these activities.
5. Training oriented to field activities such as coastal erosion, and economic valuation will be organised during the third component of the project.
6. Develop a training guide for stakeholder participation in local assessment of the impacts of climate change. The training guide will be tested during the project implementation and written in a manner that could be used for other island states.
7. Increase public awareness on the project and climate change in general and publication of peer- reviewed scientific papers, at least one per country per year.
Relevance to decision making
The results of the project will be highly relevant to decision-making in a number of areas, not only the tourism industry. In fact, the emphasis would be on the proper management of resources that tourism depends upon, such as beach and coastal management, fisheries and conservation of coral reefs, which brings together a wide group of decision-makers at national and regional levels.
At the international level, it is expected that the work done will be utilized in any future assessments of the IPCC, as scientific information on the impacts of climate change on island states is lacking, or found only as ‘grey’ publications. It is vital that adequate data are collected to support and quantify the many issues faced by small island states.
At the regional level, increase collaboration and exchange of information and experiences will be the catalyst for sustained research in the area, as well as to provide a forum for exchange and discussion of main regional issues. These issues could then be discussed in existing regional forums such as the ‘Commission de L’Ocean Indien’, which groups the island state of Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles, or the Indian Ocean Rim, which groups all the island states in the Indian Ocean, including countries which share a coast with the Indian Ocean. The results and methodologies applied could be extended to other countries in the region.
At the national level, such research will provide critical information on tourism planning, resource management as well as adaptation and response actions required to adapt to climate change, and also reduce vulnerability to extreme events. The research information will provide key input into the national adaptation planning process, using data derived from sound scientific research. The three-year project will also provide the resources to establish and build capacity for future research work in island states. At the policy-making level, the results of the project provide a clear input into national tourism planning both at present and in the future, as well as to develop good codes of practice in the development of tourism infrastructure and to determine resource pressures.
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REFERENCES
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TRAINING AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT
Training
Training will be undertaken through various modes, which includes the initial planning meeting, periodical circulation of peer-reviewed publications and selected readings as well as guest experts. The training will essentially focus on both qualitative and quantitative data analysis, climate scenarios, resource management, integrated assessment approaches and environmental valuation techniques.
Training in the field is also expected to be organized by the investigators, where drafts of the proposed training manual will be field tested during the national workshops. Opportunities to participate in other training in local institutions will also be organized.
Technical Support
The three participating universities, as well as the National Climate Change Committees in each participating state will provide strong technical support. This will be done through email, circulation of technical documents and personal intervention. The project will also draw from the experience of a wide range of researchers who are known to the investigators and the Island Conservation Society.
37 INDICATIVE WORK PLAN
Activities 2002 2003 2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Project Planning/mobilisation Component 1 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Component 2 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Component 3 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Scientific Report Project Closure and Terminal Report
See original proposal document for component descriptions.
To implement the workplan, each investigator will be given a contract and a detailed terms of reference (TOR), which will be developed during the planning meetings to ensure that local and regional issues are adequately addressed. Therefore, it is not possible to derive any specific TORs at this stage, but is expected to be strongly guided by the objectives in this proposal. The following three pages are a revised budget received and approved by AIACC in summer 2002. The first page is combined, the second is Seychelles only, and the third is Comoros only. BUDGET (by category and year) showing distribution of AIACC portion of funding (revised 10 June 2002) BUDGET CATEGORIES YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 TOTAL person-months for years: Personnel $/mo 1 2 3 23,960 27,110 19,420 70,490 Rolph Payet 1000.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 3,500 3,000 3,000 9,500 Prof. Wong Poh Poh 1200.0 3.0 3.0 2.1 3,600 3,600 2,520 9,720 Dr Herman Cesar 1200.0 2.0 3.0 2.1 2,400 3,600 2,520 8,520 Prof Olof Linden 1200.0 2.0 3.0 1.1 2,400 3,600 1,320 7,320 Wills Agricole 500.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1,500 1,000 1,000 3,500 Robert Lajoie 500.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 1,000 1,500 1,000 3,500 Alain de Commardmond 500.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 1,000 1,500 1,000 3,500 Michel Naletamby 500.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 500 500 500 1,500 Secretariat-Admin Support 250.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 750 750 750 2,250 Dr Niag Diop 1200.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1,200 1,200 1,200 3,600 Comoros local coordinator 1000.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1,500 1,500 1,500 4,500 Comoros - Climatologist 500.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1,000 500 500 2,000 Comoros - Urban Planner 500.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 1,000 1,500 500 3,000 Comoros - Economist 500.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1,000 1,000 500 2,500 Comoros - coastal expert 500.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 1,000 1,500 1,000 3,500 Comoros - GIS expert 500.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 250 500 250 1,000 Comoros -Secretarial support 120.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 360 360 360 1,080 Materials and Supplies 10,000 1,000 0 11,000 GIS data and analysis 4,500 0 0 4,500 GPS 1,500 0 0 1,500 Photographic equipment 2,000 0 0 2,000 Books & Papers 2,000 1,000 0 3,000 Equipment 10,000 0 0 10,000 Computer hardware 7,000 0 0 7,000 Survey equipment 3,000 0 0 3,000 Telecommunications 5,000 5,500 5,500 16,000 Email/phone 5,000 5,500 5,500 16,000 Computer Services 1,000 1,000 500 2,500 Consumables 1,000 1,000 500 2,500 Publication Costs 1,250 3,000 7,000 11,250 Stationary & Printing 1,250 3,000 7,000 11,250 Travel 23,500 22,500 22,500 68,500 T ravel 13,500 13,500 13,500 40,500 DSA 10,000 9,000 9,000 28,000 Translation 1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 Workshops 6,500 5,500 6,500 18,500 Regional Meeting (Seychelles) 1,500 1,500 1,500 4,500 National Workshop 3,000 2,000 3,000 8,000 Stakeholder Meetings (x6) 2,000 2,000 2,000 6,000 Contingency 4,123 3,356 3,234 10,712 at 5% of project cost 4,123 3,356 3,234 10,712 Collateral funds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total AIACC 86,333 69,966 67,654 223,952 GRAND TOTAL 86,333 69,966 67,654 223,952 BUDGET (by category and year) showing distribution of AIACC portion of funding (revised 10 June 2002) BUDGET CATEGORIES person-months YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 TOTAL for years: Personnel $/mo 1 2 3 13,950 13,950 11,750 39,650 Rolph Payet 1000.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 2,500 2,000 2,000 6,500 Prof. Wong Poh Poh 1200.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2,400 2,400 2,400 7,200 Dr Herman Cesar 1200.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2,400 2,400 2,400 7,200 Prof Olof Linden 1200.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 2,400 2,400 1,200 6,000 Wills Agricole 500.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1,000 500 500 2,000 Robert Lajoie 500.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 1,000 1,500 1,000 3,500 Alain de Commardmond 500.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 1,000 1,500 1,000 3,500 Michel Naletamby 500.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 500 500 500 1,500 Secretarial-Admin Support 250.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 750 750 750 2,250 Materials and Supplies 5,000 1,000 0 6,000 GIS data and analysis 2,000 0 0 2,000 GPS 500 0 0 500 Photographic equipment 1,000 0 0 1,000 Books & papers 1,500 1,000 0 2,500 Equipment 4,000 0 0 4,000 Computer hardware 3,000 0 0 3,000 Survey equipment 1,000 0 0 1,000 Telecommunications 3,000 2,500 2,500 8,000 Email/phone 3,000 2,500 2,500 8,000 Computer Services 0 0 0 0 GIS facility charges 0 0 0 0 Publication Costs 1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 Stationary & Printing 1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 Travel 13,000 13,000 13,000 39,000 T ravel 7,000 7,000 7,000 21,000 DSA 6,000 6,000 6,000 18,000 Translation 0 0 0 0 French to English 0 0 0 0 Workshops 3,500 3,500 3,500 10,500 Regional Meeting (Seychelles) 1,500 1,500 1,500 4,500 National Workshop 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 Stakeholder Meetings (x6) 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 Contingency 2,173 1,748 1,688 5,608 at 5% of project cost 2,173 1,748 1,688 5,608 Collateral funds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total AIACC 45,623 36,698 35,438 117,758 GRAND TOTAL 45,623 36,698 35,438 117,758 BUDGET (by category and year) showing distribution of AIACC portion of funding (revised 20 0ctober 2002) BUDGET CATEGORIES person-months YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 TOTAL for years: Personnel $/mo 1 2 3 10,260 13,660 7,920 31,840 Rolph Payet 1000.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 Prof. Wong Poh Poh 1200.0 1.0 1.0 0.1 1,200 1,200 120 2,520 Dr Herman Cesar 1200.0 0.0 1.0 0.1 0 1,200 120 1,320 reduced as work will focus in Yr2 Prof Olof Linden 1200.0 0.0 1.0 0.1 0 1,200 120 1,320 reduced as work will focus in Yr2 Wills Agricole 500.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 500 500 500 1,500 Dr Niag Diop 1200.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1,200 1,200 1,200 3,600 Comoros National Coordinator 1000.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1,500 1,500 1,500 4,500 Comoros - Climatologist 500.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1,000 500 500 2,000 Comoros - Urban Planner 500.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 1,000 1,500 500 3,000 Comoros - Economist 500.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1,000 1,000 500 2,500 Comoros - coastal expert 500.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 1,000 1,500 1,000 3,500 Moehli Junior Expert 500.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 250 500 250 1,000 to build capicity in the individual automnous island Anjouan Junior Expert 500.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 250 500 250 1,000 to build capicity in the individual automnous island Comoros -Secretarial support 120.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 360 360 360 1,080 Materials and Supplies 5,000 0 0 5,000 GIS data and analysis 2,500 0 0 2,500 GPS 1,000 0 0 Photographic equipment 1,000 0 0 1,000 Books & papers 500 0 0 500 Equipment 6,000 0 0 6,000 Computer hardware 4,000 0 0 4,000 Survey equipment 2,000 0 0 2,000 Telecommunications 2,000 3,000 3,000 8,000 Email/phone 2,000 3,000 3,000 8,000 expected increase in phone calls. Computer Services 1,000 1,000 500 2,500 Consumables 1,000 1,000 500 2,500 Publication Costs 250 2,000 4,000 6,250 Stationary and Printing 250 2,000 4,000 6,250 Travel 10,500 9,500 9,500 29,500 T ravel 6,500 6,500 6,500 19,500 DSA 4,000 3,000 3,000 10,000 Translation 1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 French to English 1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 Workshops 3,000 2,000 3,000 8,000 Regional Meeting (Seychelles) 0 0 0 0 National Workshop (x3) 2,000 1,000 2,000 5,000 Stakeholder meetings (x6) 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 Contingency 1,951 1,608 1,546 5,105 at 5% of project cost 1,951 1,608 1,546 5,105 Collateral funds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total AIACC 40,961 33,768 32,466 107,195 GRAND TOTAL 40,961 33,768 32,466 107,195 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean
ANNEX 1: SEYCHELLES: INVESTIGATOR CURRENT & PENDING SUPPORT
Instructions: 1. Complete this form for each investigator that will participate in the project, even if salary for the person is not included in the project budget. 2. Record information for all active, pending (approved but not yet begun) and proposed projects in which the investigator expects to participate from October 2001through December 2004. 3. Include the project proposed to AIACC in the first row and indicate the % of time the investigator will commit to the project in each year if it is funded. (Note: it is expected that award decisions will be made in October and funds transmitted as soon after as feasible. Most projects are expected to start in January 2001.) 4. Electronically copy and paste a completed table for each investigator into an electronic file containing other elements of your proposal. (All proposal elements should be included in a single electronic file if possible.)
Name of Investigator: Rolph Payet Time Committed to Project (months)
Project Title Principal Investigator or Supporting Agency Project Status (active, pending, 2001** 2002 2003 2004 Project Coordinator proposed) CC and Tourism Rolph Payet 3. 3 4 – Indian Ocean AIACC Proposed Global Rolph Payet – Indian Ocean GIWA/UNEP Active 0 2 2 0 International Sub-region Waters Assessment
Name of Investigator: Wong Poh Poh % of Time Committed to Project
Project Title Principal Investigator or Supporting Agency Project Status (active, pending, 2001** 2002 2003 2004 Project Coordinator proposed) CC and Tourism ROLPH PAYET AIACC PROPOSED 0 25 25 25 – Indian Ocean MARINE W.Y. CHIAU National Sun Yat-Sen Active 0 10 10 0 PROTECTED University AREAS Ecological T.E. Chua PEMSEA Active 0 5 0 0 carrying capacity T
42 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean
Name of Investigator: Prof Olof Linden Time Committed to Project (months)
Project Title Principal Investigator or Supporting Agency Project Status (active, pending, 2001** 2002 2003 2004 Project Coordinator proposed) CC and Tourism Rolph Payet 0 3. 2.5 1.5 – Indian Ocean AIACC Proposed Teaching University of Kalmar 9 9 9 9
Name of Investigator: Herman Cesar Time Committed to Project (months)
Project Title Principal Investigator or Supporting Agency Project Status (active, pending, 2001** 2002 2003 2004 Project Coordinator proposed) CC and Tourism Rolph Payet 0 3. 3 2.1 – Indian Ocean AIACC Proposed Consultancy Herman Cesar Numerous Active & Proposed 10 9 - - work
Name of Investigator: Gonzalo Malvarez Time Committed to Project (months)
Project Title Principal Investigator or Supporting Agency Project Status (active, pending, 2001** 2002 2003 2004 Project Coordinator proposed) CC and Tourism Rolph Payet 0 2. 2 1 – Indian Ocean AIACC Proposed Teaching Gonzalo Malarez University of Ulster Active 6 6 6 6 Research Gonzalo Malvarez University of Ulster Active 3 3 3 3 Projects
Name of Investigator: Wills Agricole Time Committed to Project (months)
Project Title Principal Investigator or Supporting Agency Project Status (active, pending, 2001** 2002 2003 2004 Project Coordinator proposed) CC and Tourism Rolph Payet 0 2. 2 2 – Indian Ocean AIACC Proposed
43 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean
Name of Investigator: Robert Lajoie Time Committed to Project (months)
Project Title Principal Investigator or Supporting Agency Project Status (active, pending, 2001** 2002 2003 2004 Project Coordinator proposed) CC and Tourism Rolph Payet 0 2. 3 2 – Indian Ocean AIACC Proposed
Name of Investigator: Alain de Commarmond Time Committed to Project (months)
Project Title Principal Investigator or Supporting Agency Project Status (active, pending, 2001** 2002 2003 2004 Project Coordinator proposed) CC and Tourism Rolph Payet 0 2. 3 2 – Indian Ocean AIACC Proposed
Name of Investigator: Francis Coeur-de-Lion Time Committed to Project (months)
Project Title Principal Investigator or Supporting Agency Project Status (active, pending, 2001** 2002 2003 2004 Project Coordinator proposed) CC and Tourism Rolph Payet 0 2 1 0.5 – Indian Ocean AIACC Proposed
Name of Investigator: Michel Naletamby Time Committed to Project (months)
Project Title Principal Investigator or Supporting Agency Project Status (active, pending, 2001** 2002 2003 2004 Project Coordinator proposed) CC and Tourism Rolph Payet 0 1 1 1 – Indian Ocean AIACC Proposed
44 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean
ANNEX 1: COMOROS : INVESTIGATOR CURRENT & PENDING SUPPORT
Instructions: 5. Complete this form for each investigator that will participate in the project, even if salary for the person is not included in the project budget. 6. Record information for all active, pending (approved but not yet begun) and proposed projects in which the investigator expects to participate from October 2001through December 2004. 7. Include the project proposed to AIACC in the first row and indicate the % of time the investigator will commit to the project in each year if it is funded. (Note: it is expected that award decisions will be made in October and funds transmitted as soon after as feasible. Most projects are expected to start in January 2001.) 8. Electronically copy and paste a completed table for each investigator into an electronic file containing other elements of your proposal. (All proposal elements should be included in a single electronic file if possible.)
Name of Investigator: Isabelle Niang-Diop Time Committed to Project (months)
Project Title Principal Investigator or Supporting Agency Project Status (active, pending, 2001** 2002 2003 2004 Project Coordinator proposed) CC and Tourism Rolph Payet 0 2 1 1 – Indian Ocean AIACC Proposed Consultancy Various Numerous Active & Proposed - 8 - - work
Completed forms for the remaining members of the team have not been received.
ANNEX 2: LETTERS OF ENDORSEMENT
1. Government of Seychelles - Already Submitted 2. Government of Comoros – Already Submitted
45 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean
ANNEX 3 SEYCHELLES CV FORMAT
1. Rolph A. Payet
Name Position ROLPH PAYET DIRECTOR GENERAL Institution Degree Year (s) Field of Study University of East BSc (Hons) 1989-1992 Biochemistry Anglia, UK University of Surrey, UK MBA 2000 Strategic Management University of Ulster MSc 2002 (expected) Coastal Management RESEARCH AND PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: Concluding with present position, list, in chronological order, previous employment, experience, and honors. Include present membership on any Government public advisory committee. List, in chronological order, the titles, all authors, and complete references to all publications during the past three years and to representative earlier publications pertinent to this application. If the list of publications in the last three years exceeds two pages, select the most pertinent publications. DO NOT EXCEED TWO PAGES.
Other Education 2000- UNITAR Certificate in International Environmental Law 1995-1996 Diploma in Management (Seychelles Institute of Management) 1994-1995 Post-Graduate Environment Management Courses (University of Montreal, Canada) 1992 Post-Graduate Certificate in Waste Management (Dresden University, Germany)
Work Experience 1999-now Director General (Policy, Planning and Services, Ministry of Environment) 1999-now Interim Regional Coordinator of the EAF UNEP/RCU based in Seychelles 1996-1999 Director (Industrial Management & Planning, Ministry of Industry) 1993-1996 Assistant Director (Pollution Control, Division of Environment) 1992-1993 Environment Biochemist (Division of Environment)
Main Appointments & Memberships Chairman of the National Environment Advisory Council Chairman of Shoals of Capricorn Marine Research Programme in Seychelles Co-Chairman of National Climate Change Committee Member of the Eco-tourism Policy Working Group National Focal Point for the UNFCCC (Climate Change) and Montreal Protocol Member of the National UNESCO Commission Member and National Representative of the International Hydrological Society Past Member of the Executive Committee of the Multilateral Fund, Montreal Protocol Past Member of the Town and Country Planning Authority (Seychelles)
Skills Experience in Coastal Management, Forestry, Conservation, Agriculture, Industry, Tourism, and Environmental Health Formulation of training and workshops in ICZM, ISO14000, Environment Management, Environment Impact Assessment, Industry and Waste Management Planning and Audits Pollution Abatement Policy and Planning Environmental Impact Assessments Natural Resource and Coastal Management International Environment Law, Treaties and Conventions Computer Information Systems Design, Training & Internet/Web Development Project Management and Planning Institutional and Strategic Action Planning
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Scientific Research Research into impacts of tourism on the environment (ongoing research programme under the Environment Management Plan.) Community perception study and use of GIS in Wetland Management (managing a 6 person research team –completed) Coastal community survey for determining public perception of East Coast Reclamation (managed a 3 person research team, funded by Government of Seychelles) Vulnerability of Seychelles to Climate Change (managed a 17 person research teams, funded by UNDP/GEF) Customer perception to SMB, a customer survey-based research (1996). A Study of Marine Debris in Seychelles (WIOMSA (UNESCO/IOC) marine research grant) (1995) Microbiological Study of Beau Vallon Bay Recreational Waters (EAF/6) Principal Investigator (1995) Population Dynamics of Tortoise population on Curieuse Island, with Oxford University Expedition. (1992). Study of invasive species cover on Silhouette island, 1989. Recent Publications/Work Publications (in press)
Impact of Tourism on the Environment and Efforts towards Sustainable Tourism Development in Seychelles, ( to be submitted to Annals of Tourism Research).
El Nino and its impacts in Small Island States: Climate Change, Chapter in Africa book to be published in June 2001.
EIA in the Tourism Sector in Seychelles: Chapter in Environmental Law in Africa Series, to be published in late 2001.
Editor and selected chapter author of the Seychelles First National Communication to the UNFCCC, 2001.
Recent Work Currently co-ordinating implementation of top-up proposal “Enabling Activities under UNFCC” funded by the GEF. Review Editor of chapter 17, TAR – Small Island States. Reviewed MAGIC Scenario Manual on behalf of UNDP. Preparation of Adaptation Stage I report for the Government of Seychelles, 1999.
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2. Wong Poh Poh-CV
Personal data Born in Singapore, 3 July 1945 Citizen of Singapore Married, 3 sons
Present appointment Associate Professor Department of Geography National University of Singapore 10 Kent Ridge Crescent Singapore 119260
Contacts Telephone : 65-7723859 Facsimile : 65-7773091 E-mail (office) : [email protected] E-mail (home) : [email protected]
Education Ph.D., McGill University, 1971 (Beach changes and sand movement in low energy environments, west coast, Barbados) M.A., Univ. of Singapore, 1969 (Some aspects of the surface configuration of Singapore) B.A. (Class 1 Hons.), Univ. of Singapore, 1966 (The coastal types of Singapore)
Completed short professional courses on Tourism Marketing (CIEST, 1980), Teaching Tourism (University of Surrey, 1987), Planning and Development of Tourism (University of Surrey, 1987), Ecotourism Planning and Management (George Washington University 1995).
Courses taught (* current) Cartography, Physical Geography, Burma, Singapore, Geographic Techniques, Geomorphology, Coastal Geomorphology, Geography of Tourism, Development of Geographic Thought, Tourism in Southeast Asia, Tourism Development*, Coastal Management*
Professional membership Geological Society of Malaysia The International Ecotourism Society
Recent and current professional activities § Lead Author, Small Island States chapter of IPCC Working Group 2 Third Assessment Report § Convenor, IGU Commission on Coastal Systems project on Tourist Coasts § Associate Editor, Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography § Resource Editor, Tourism Geographies § Member, Editorial Board, Journal of Coastal Conservation § Member, International Editorial Board, Asian Geographer § Member, Editorial Advisory Committee, Journal of Southeast Asian Studies § Board Member, International Geography Union (IGU) Commission on Coastal Systems (1992-2000) § Principal investigator, Coastal tourism on Gili Islands, Lombok, Indonesia, 1999-2000 § Author, START Policy Implications of Global Change for Development in Southeast Asia, 1999 § Principal investigator for three research projects on coastal tourism in Malaysia and ASEAN, 1985-97 § Convenor, IGU Commission on the Coastal Environment project on Coastal Tourism, 1989-92 § Corresponding Member, IGU Commission on the Coastal Environment, 1980-1992 § Treasurer, International Association of Geomorphologists Southeast Asia Conference, June 1995 § Member, UNEP East Asian Seas Task Team on Climatic Change Implications, 1989-90
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§ Contributor, ASEAN-US Cooperative Program on Marine Sciences : Coastal Resources Management Project, 1989-1992 § Co-editor, Tropical Geomorphology Newsletter, 1989-1997 § Member, Editorial Committee of the Centre for Advanced Studies, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, National University of Singapore, 1990-1994 § Member, Editorial Board, Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, 1975-1993 § Member, Geography Syllabus Committee, Ministry of Education, 1990-1992
Publications (* coasts and/or tourism)
Under review/preparation * Reclamation (completed); Ecolabelling of beaches; Tourism, criteria for coastal sites (under preparation). Encyclopedia of Coastal Science. * Tourist Coasts. (edited volume under preparation).
Forthcoming :
* Tourism as a global driving force for environmental change. In I. Douglas, editor, Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, vol. 3, John Wiley, Chichester.
* The coastal environments of Southeast Asia. In A. Gupta, editor, The Physical Geography of Southeast Asia, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
* Trends in coastal ecotourism of Southeast Asia. UNEP Industry and Environment.
* (P.P. Wong and P. Teo) Cultural and heritage tourism : a learning experience for an island city state. In R. Ayres and L. Briguglio, editors, Cultural Tourism in Islands and Small States.
* Managing beach tourism in Singapore. In K.C. Ho, editor, Tourism Issues and Policy : Perspectives from Singapore. Centre for Advanced Studies, Singapore.
* Tourism development in Southeast Asia: patterns, issues and prospects. In L.S. Chia, editor, Southeast Asia Transformed: A Geography of Change, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.
2001 * (Nurse, L.A., Sem, S., Hay, J.E. Suarez, A.G., Wong, P.P., Briguglio, L. &. Ragoonaden, S.) Small island states. In J.J. McCarthy et al., editors, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 844-875.
* Southeast Asian tourism: traditional and new perspectives on the natural environment. In P. Teo, T.C. Chang and K.C. Ho, editors, Interconnected Worlds: Tourism in Southeast Asia, Elsevier Science, Oxford, pp. 215-230.
* (A. Soemodinoto, P.P. Wong & M. Saleh), Effect of prolonged political unrest on tourism, Annals of Tourism Research, 28 : 1056-1060.
2000 (K.C. Goh & P.P. Wong). Status of fieldwork in the geography curriculum in Southeast Asia. In G. Gerber and K.C. Goh, editors, Fieldwork in Geography: Reflections, Perspectives and Actions, Kluwer Academic Press, Dordrecht, pp. 99-117.
* Malacca Strait including Singapore and Johore Straits. In C. Sheppard, editor, Seas at the Millennium : An Environmental Evaluation. Elsevier Science, Oxford, vol. 2. pp. 331-344.
* Coastal tourism in Southeast Asia : research from the environmental perspective. In K.S. Chon, editor, Tourism in Southeast Asia : A New Direction, Haworth Hospitality Press, New York, pp.107-121.
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3. Prof Olof Linden- CV
Name: Linden Christian names: Olof, Soren Date of birth: August 20, 1949 Place of birth: Sweden
Scholastic record:
B.Sc. (Fil. kand.) 1973, Stockholm University Ph.D. (Fil. dr.) 1977, Stockholm University (Ph.D. research concerning effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on embryonic development of fish and crustaceans) Docent (Associated Professor) 1984, Stockholm University Gained Full Professorship status (Tropical Marine Ecotoxicology) after peer review process, 1991
Research Focus:
Marine eco-toxicology, fate and effects of petroleum hydrocarbons. Environment and natural resources management/integrated coastal zone management in coastal areas particularly in developing tropical countries. Main experience from Central America, East and West Africa and South Asia. About 100 scientific papers, a number of reports and articles in newspapers etc. Editor/author of books on coastal management and environmental impacts. (See separate list)
Teaching/supervision:
Teaching 2 – 6 weeks per year during the last 10 years. Subjects: Coastal and marine resource management, environmental impact assessments, biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture (Stockholm University, Gothenburg University, University of Kalmar, Royal Technical University (KTH), Umeå University, University of Dar es Salaam, Univ. Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Colombo University, and institutions such as CPPS (Bogota), Office National de l’Eau Potable (Rabat), KISR (Kuwait), Fisheries (Bahrain), NARA (Colombo), World Bank (Washington DC). Supervision of students for Ph.D.: At present two students affiliated at University of Kalmar.
Employments:
1974-1983: Project leader (forskningsingenjor), Head of Division (Divisionschef), and Head of Department (Avdelningschef) at the Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL), in Studsvik, Karlskrona and Stockholm. (responsible for scientific, technical and economic performance of a staff of up to 60 scientists, technicians, secretaries and other staff.)
1984/85 (part of): Program Officer, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of Unesco, Paris. (Marine Pollution Section, GIPME, MEDPOL etc.)
1985-1987: Manager and partner, Swedish Environmental Research Group Ltd., Stockholm and Karlskrona
1987-1990: Head of Aquatic Pollution Division (sektionschef), Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL), Stockholm. (A staff of up to 25 scientists and technicians)
1990-present: President of Timmermon AB, company with 5 employees (professionals), providing services in the area of marine and coastal environment and resource management. Major clients: SAREC/Sida, World Bank, UNDP and other UN-agencies, oil companies etc.
1990-1999: Adjunct Professor (Tropical Marine Ecotoxicology), Stockholm University. (Teaching and supervision of Ph.D.-candidates).
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2000-present: Adjunct Professor (Integrated Coastal Area Management), University of Kalmar. (Teaching and supervision of Ph.D.-candidates).
Fellowships:
Nordic Council for Marine Biology 1972-1973 (18 months) for marine research at Tvarminne Marine Station, Helsinki University.
Scandinavian-American Foundation for research (post-doctorate) in toxicology at Texas A&M University, 1977, 1 year (Head of Department: Prof. Jerry Neff)
Important Professional Activities:
Expert and member of the Swedish Delegation to PREPCOM (for UNCED and the Rio Conference).
Consultant to UN agencies (FAO, UNEP, WHO, IMO and UNESCO-IOC), the World Bank and private industry in about 50 instances during the last 20 years. Usually in connection with environmental impact assessments or the drafting of plans for improved environmental management, to advice Governments, companies and organizations on environmental effects, mitigation etc. For example: n the Ixtoc oil blow-out in Gulf of Mexico 1979-1980 (responsible for the assessment of the damage to fisheries) (for UNFAO & UNEP), n dam constructions in Morocco 1982-83, (eutrophication and siltation) (for WHO), n development of coastal environmental monitoring in several Gulf States 1978-84 including Bahrain and Kuwait, (for Governments and Oil Companies), n design of environmental measures for pulp/paper mill construction in Borneo 1984-85 (for Pulp & Paper Industry), n marine environmental impact of the Gulf War oil spill 1990-91 for IOC as part of the UNEP-Program, n assessment of the environmental and social situation in the Niger Delta and drafting of a strategy for environmental and social development 1995-96 (for the World Bank), n environmental assessment of oil spills in the Persian/Arabian Gulf, East and West Africa, Caribbean and South America, Europe and Far East (for Oil Companies, ITOPF, UN-agencies and Governments), n long-term monitoring of environmental changes in the marine environment in Bahrain for Oil Companies,
Planning and implementation of Swedish assistance programs to developing countries for SAREC, SIDA and BITS since about 1978, usually in the fields of capacity building and research co-operation in marine sciences: n - coordinator of SAREC (Sida) marine science cooperation and capacity building programs in Sri Lanka (1989 – on-going), n - coordinator of the Regional Marine Science and Capacity Building Program (1990 - present), the program has components in East Africa, the Caribbean and East Asia. Parts of this program are allocated to IOC for planning and implementation. n - coordinator of marine science development program in Vietnam (1994 - present).
Presently much of my time is spent as Co-ordinator of the CORDIO Program (Coral Degradation in the Indian Ocean), a research program to assess the ecological and socio-economic damage caused by the coral degradation in the Indian Ocean. I initiated the program in 1998, when coral bleaching and mortality were acute problems. Presently about 15 groups of scientists collaborate in the program which is carried out in 12 countries in Central and Western Indian Ocean. Funding comes from Sweden (Sida, FRN, MISTRA), Finland, Holland, World Bank & WWF.
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Coordinator for the International Coral Reef Initiative. Appointed by the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs to act as Coordinator for the Secretariat of ICRI during the Swedish/Philippines presidency 2001- 2002.
Examples of international professional activities since 1975
Assessment of ecological impact as a result of an oil spill in Bahia Amatique, Guatemala, 1975 (for UN FAO).
Limnological investigation of the Lago Izabal, Guatemala, to assess the reason for fish kills, 1975 (UN FAO).
Ecological damage to mangroves and effects on fisheries as a result of the oil spill from the tanker "Saint Peter", Colombia-Equador, 1976 (UN FAO).
Assessment of the effects of the industrial pollution (particularly mercury) in Bahia de Cartagena, Colombia, 1976 and 1978 (UN FAO).
Environmental assessment of the Aracruz Pulp and Paper Mill, Vitoria, Brazil, 1978 (Aracruz Cellulose S.A.).
Assessment of the impact on fisheries of the oil spill from the "Ixtoc-I" blow-out in the Bahia de Campeche, Mexico, 1979 and 1980 (UNEP and FAO).
Assessment of ecological impact and effects on fisheries in connection with the Ras Tanura oil spill in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, 1980 (UN FAO and IMCO).
Assessment of the ecological impact and effects on fisheries of the "Hasbah-6" blow-out, Arabian (Persian) Gulf, 1980 (Bahrain Government).
Assistance to the central environmental authority, Turkey, regarding the development of a national oil spill contingency plan for the country 1981 (IMO).
Advisor to the US National Academy of Sciences in connection with the compilation of the report: "Oil in the Sea, Inputs, Fates, and Effects", 1981. 1985 (US National Research Council).
Assessment of the present state of marine pollution in Bahrain and the drafting of a marine pollution action plan for the country, 1981-1982 (UN FAO).
Assessment of the extent of damage to fisheries as a result of the oil spill from the tanker "Assimi". Sultanate of Oman, 1983 (UN FAO).
Advisor to the Government of Morocco for the build-up of an environmental toxicology and ecotoxicology laboratory at office National de I'Eau Potable, Rabat, Morocco, 1984, 1986 and 1987 (UN WHO).
Marine environmental assessment of the Brunei Bay, Borneo, Malaysia (Sabah Forest Industries), 1984, 1985.
Assessment of the ecological impact of the tanker "Marina" oil spill, Sao Sebastiao, Brazil, 1985 (International oil Pollution Compensation Fund).
Delegate representing the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of Unesco at IMO/UNEP Meeting of Experts on Regional Arrangements for Cooperation in Combating Major Incidents of Marine Pollution, London, 1985.
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Advisor to the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) in matters related to the use of oil spill dispersants in the Kuwait Action Plan Region, Kuwait, 1985.
Assessment of hazards environmental hazards in connection with the wreck of the "Ariadne" chemical tanker in Mogadishu, Somalia. 1986 & 1988 (IOC, UNESCO, IMO, FAO and UNEP).
Assessment of the damage of the oil from the tanker "Brady Maria" incident in Elbe, West-Germany, 1986 (International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund).
Research in organotin ecotoxicity at Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution, Fort Pierce, Florida (US Office of Naval Research) 1986.
Assessment of the environmental effects of the effluent from the refinery of the Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO), Bahrain, 1986 (Bahrain Petroleum Company).
Consultant to the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of Unesco in the preparation of a Marine Science Profile for Malta, 1986.
Advisor to UNEP and GESAMP in the preparation of regional views of the state of the Marine and Coastal Environments in the Persian/Arabian Gulf and Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. This was part of the preparatory work to produce the global review "The Health of the Oceans", 1986-1988.
Advisor to Kuwait Government for strategic planning of a marine and coastal management program 1987.
Advisor to the Kuwait Government for environmental impact assessment of proposed power/desalination plant, 1987.
Advisor to the Government of the Sultanate of Oman in the preparation of a Coastal and Marine Resources Atlas for Sultanate, 1988.
Consultant to UNEP in the evaluation of marine pollution projects carried out during 1982-1987 within the framework of the East Asian Seas Action Plan, UNEP-COPSEA, 1988.
Assessment of the environmental impact and advice on mitigation in connection with oil spill in Makupa Creek, Mombasa, Kenya, 1989 (IMO & SIDA).
Consultant to IOC and UNEP-COPSEA to advise on matters related to marine environment hazard assessment methods and strategies in the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand 1990.
Consultant to the World Bank (Environmental Department and Africa Department) for the planning and implementation of coastal management programs/projects in Africa (Nigeria, Ghana, Madagascar) as well as to carry out training activities for Bank staff (1993-present).
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4. Dr Herman Cesar -CV
Address: Herman Cesar Kastanjelaan 9, 6828 GH Arnhem, The Netherlands tel/fax: 31-20-4449577 (tel. work) 31-6-53513930 (mobile) 31-26-3704915 (fax) e-mail: [email protected] web: www.ceec.nl
Date of Birth: March 7, 1963
Nationality: Dutch
Education: Ph.D., Environmental and Natural Resource Economics European University Institute, Florence (Italy), 1993 MA in Econometrics and MA in Economics (both: cum laude) State University of Groningen (the Netherlands), 1988
Current Employment (since January 1, 1999):
· Researcher at Institute for Environmental Studies (IvM), Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam · Consultant (Cesar Environmental Economics Consulting, Amsterdam) specialising in research and policy advice on the interplay between environment and economics for the World Bank, UNDP, USAID and SIDA-SAREC among others.
Previous Experience:
1994-1998: Staff Member of World Bank (Environmental Economist),Washington DC.
1993-1994: Assistant Professor in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, Tilburg University (the Netherlands).
1992: Visiting Scholar at Department of Urban Studies and Planning (DUSP) of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA (USA).
1988: Research Student with Willem Buiter at the London School of Economics.
Selected Assignments
2000-2001: Task Manager of Coral Reef Valuation Project in Hawaii for the HCRI-Research Program. This is a NOAA funded program on reef research. The bid was won by Cesar Environmental Economics Consulting in conjunction with the University of Hawaii (SSRI; Economics Department). It is a large scale assessment of the economic benefits of coral reef management and the costs of coral reef damage (ship groundings, oil spills, etc.).
1999-2001: Task Manager of project on "Economic Valuation of Coral Bleaching in the Indian Ocean" financed by the World Bank with field work in the Maldives and research on Sri Lanka, Kenya, Seychelles and Tanzania. The work was an assignment at the Institute for Environmental Studies at the Free University in Amsterdam. It involved managing and cooridinating applied research carried out by four teams in developing countries and three international experts. It entailed also setting up tourism surveys, training local staff to carry out the surveys, and at the end doing the analysis.
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1999-2001: Task Manager of project on “Economic Valuation of Air Pollution in Mexico City, financed by the World Bank through the Institute for Environmental Studies at the Free University in Amsterdam. My role was to coordinate the research of all the parties (two groups within the World Bank, five different research groups in Mexico, as well as government bodies in Mexico) and carry out part of the research myself (especially on estimating economic impacts of environmental contingency days). My work was also to coordinate the writing of the final report.
2000 Lead consultant to the Coastal Zone Management Centre (RIKZ) in The Hague for publication of a background report on the Economics of Marine Protected Areas in East Africa and Western Indian Ocean for the Ministerial Meeting in Maputo in November 2001.
1998-2000 Editor of the Monograph “Collected Essays on the Economics of Coral Reefs” (pp.250), the first monograph on economic aspects of coral reef degradation and management. The publication of this book is paid for by Sida/CORDIO in Sweden, with contributions from most economists dealing with coral reef ecosystems, coral reef eco-tourism, reef fisheries, MPAs. My role was (co-)author, manager, editor and reviewer.
1998-2000 Consultant on a shrimp farming study for Thailand, China and Vietnam. I analysed farm models and guidelines for environmentally responsible shrimp farming, and reviewed locally written documents in the three countries involved.
1998-1999 Consultant and Task Manager on study on the Portland Bight Protected Area, an Integrated Terrestrial and Marine Protected Area in Jamaica. Analysis of Management Plan and Economic Feasibility of Eco-tourism and other Economic Benefits of the Park.
1996-1998 Team member and subsequently task manager on an acid rain study for East Asia as staff member of the World Bank, in charge of research and coordination of multi-million research and policy analysis project (RAINS-Asia). This was a technical assistance project for transboundary acid rain pollution in East Asia.
1997: Trainer and facilitator of all groups involved in the National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP) for Armenia. with respect to natural resources, water use, agriculture, and environmental health.
1997: Team member of reconnaissance mission to Surinam, in charge of the natural resources part (logging and gold mining) with high level ministerial meetings.
1996-1998 Task manager of large study on grouper aquaculture and the live reef fish trade in East Asia. The work involved writing policy documents and studies on grouper aquaculture and market transformation of groupers.
1994-1996 Team member of Coral Reef Management and Rehabilitation Project (COREMAP, Indonesia), with special focus on the economic analysis for the project and the finance side. This involved five trips to Indonesia, field work, and a write-up, later published in the literature.
1995-1996 Team member of the Coastal Resources Management Project (Thailand), of the World Bank, working on sustainable shrimp farming. I was in charge of the financial and economic analysis for the project.
1995-1996 Team member of group in charge of writing the World Bank vision paper on rural development for the Philippines. It involved a 6 weeks stay in the Philippines and writing sections on poverty and unemployment.
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1994-1995: Team member of FSU and CEE project on environmental funds and how to manage these funds in a sustainable way.
Skills/Others:
Languages: reading writing speaking Dutch (native) excellent excellent excellent; English excellent excellent excellent; German good fair good French good fair good
Selected Publications (1999 and 2000):
H. S.J. Cesar (ed.) (2000) "Collected Essays on the Economics of Coral Reefs", pp. 250, CORDIO, Kalmar University, Kalmar, Sweden.
O. Hoegh-Guldberg, H. Hoegh-Guldberg, D.K. Stout, H. Cesar and A. Timmermann (2000), “Pacific in Peril: Biological, Economic and Social Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Coral Reefs”, 72 p., Greenpeace, Sydney, Australia.
Cesar, H. and E. Hempel (2000), “Opportunities and Constraints of Grouper Aquaculture in Asia”, p. 26, EASES Discussion Paper Series, World Bank, Washington DC, USA.
Cesar, H., M. Öhman, P. Espeut & M. Honkanen (2000), "An Economic Valuation of Portland Bight, Jamaica: an Integrated Terrestrial and Marine Protected Area", Working Paper WP-00/03, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam.
C. Wilkinson, O. Linden, H. Cesar, G. Hodgson, J. Rubens and A.E. Strong (1999), “Ecological and Socioeconomic Impacts of 1998 Coral Mortality in the Indian Ocean: An ENSO Impact and a Warning of Future Change?”, AMBIO, Vol. 26 No. 2, p. 188-196.
C. Pet-Soede, H.S.J. Cesar and J.S. Pet (1999), “An Economic Analysis of Blast Fishing on Indonesian Coral Reefs”, Environmental Conservation, Vol. 26, No. 2, p. 83-93.
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5. Dr Gonzalo Malvarez - CV
Personal Details: Name: Gonzalo Carlos Malvarez Title: Dr. Home Address: 90 Old Pine Cottages, Somerset Park. Coleraine. BT51 3LH Co. L’Derry. Northern Ireland Telephone: 028 70 321948 Date of Birth: 20 - 01 - 1968
Education 1986 - 1991.- Universidad de Malaga. Spain (Licenciatura. 5 year University Degree). Physical Geography. First awarded. 1991 - 1997.- University of Ulster. Northern Ireland (PhD)
Ti: Coastal Morphodynamics and Anthropogenic Impacts on Sediment Supply and Dispersal in the Costa del Sol, Spain. A Quantitative Analysis Using Numerical Modelling and G.I.S. Other Courses:
1991.- Diploma in Coastal Studies undertaken at the University of Ulster: Research project entitled: “Morfodinamica y deposicion” under supervision of R.G.W. Carter. Grade awarded 100 %
1993.- Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Course in Geophysics: Fluid Mechanics; Waves.
1995.- Short Course in Coastal Sediment Transport . XXV International Conference on Coastal Engineering. Orlando, USA. By O. Madsen. Sept. 1995 1995.- Short Course in Coastal Geology. XXV International Conference on Coastal Engineering. Orlando, USA. By P.D. Komar. USA Sept. 1995 1997.- Trimble Navigation Europe Training Classes. Course in advanced D_GPS surveying. Hook, England.
Computer and Surveying Equipment Experience · Experience operating ARC/INFO, ARC/VIEW, ERDAS Imagine and IDRISI Geographic Information Systems and SURFER 6.0 mapping package.
· Experience using TRIMMAP 6.0, SDR MAP 6.0, GPSurvey and TRIMNET post-processor for surveying equipment.
· Experience operating HISWA and WAVERN. UNIX-based wave refraction numerical models.
· Experience operating Differential GPS stations for postprocessed, static and real time kinematic topographic surveys.
· Experience using Electronic Distance Meter total stations for topographic surveys.
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· Knowledge of aerial photography data acquisition with Digital Camera.
· Experience on deployment of meteorological, water level, wave and current recorders.
Participation in scientific investigations:
1995.- Participation on scientific expedition aboard of the Oceanographic Vessel ‘Logh Beltra’ of the Irish Government for the deployment of a Wave Rider, directional wave recorder and side-scan sonar survey of the sedimentary deposits of the Irish Sea.
1995.- Participation in marine survey of the North Coast of Ireland, using Side Scan Sonar.
1995.- Participation in aeolian sediment transport experiments. Benone Beach, Northern Ireland
1995.- Participation in the deployment of a wave-tide recorder offshore Marbella, Costa del Sol
1995.- Co-ordinator of EDM (Electronic Distance Meter) survey of the sedimentary deposits of ‘Presa del Angel’ dams. Marbella Costa del Sol.
1996.- Participation in experiments on the coast of Malin Head (Ireland) with Prof Douglas Sherman, University of California. Measurement of wave deformation and induced currents on a gravel beach.
1997.- Participation in aerial photogrametry pilot survey on Great Coral Reef Barrier, Australia, using Kodak digital camera and GPS techniques. Co-ordinated with IRTU, Great Barrier Reef Authorities and University of Ulster.
1997.- Co-ordination of topographic survey of the Inch peninsula, Co. Kerry using D_GPS
1997.- Co-ordination of second campaign of topographic D_GPS survey at Inch as part of STORM EU funded project.
1998.- Aerial photography survey using Digital Photography Remote Sensing of the intertidal regions at Lough Foyle, Derry, Northern Ireland.
1999.- Aerial photography survey of the coast of Sines, Portugal. Digital Photography Remote Sensing.
Research Interest and E-learning experience
As a lecturer in Coastal Morphodynamics my research interest are related to the interaction of waves and sediments in nearshore regions. My involvement in various research projects related with applied coastal morphodynamics have lead to specialising in nearshore circulations and its effects on beach stability and influence of coastal structure. I have lead a long-term monitoring programme which focused on the investigation of the effects of an extension of a major sea defence (sea wall) in Newtownards, county Down (N. Ireland) as sedimentologist and wave modeller.
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I am familiar with a number of numerical modelling techniques for wave deformation and propagation have several peer reviewed papers in international scientific journals and currently teach a module at MSc level on the topic.
My current position as Assistant Director of the Virtual School and Lecturer in Environmental Studies is part of an expansive plan in the Virtual School of the Faculty of Science of the University of Ulster, which has recruited more than 400 students world wide. The tasks associated with my position involve motivating and co-ordinating a group of lecturers in the School of Environmental Studies along with marketing and development duties related with the establishment of a sequential programme of courses in environmental studies for delivery on the Internet.
Research Projects
Current projects
Title: Morphodynamics of the Guadiana River delta: Geomorphological and planning implications. Sponsor: EU INTERREG IIC in partnership with University of Seville and Junta de Andalucia. £3K
Title: Monitoring Program of the intertidal flats in Newtownards, Strangford Lough. Construction phase of Sea Defences improvement.(£80K). Sponsor: Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, Northern Ireland.
Title: Network for research on development of a Sensitivity Index for SE Asia. (£12K) Sponsor: Industrial Research and Technology Unit
Title: Development of a model for prediction of spread of Spartina Anglica on wave dominated tidal flats. (Pilot phase £20K) . Sponsor: Department of Environment Northern Ireland, (Environment Heritage Service)
Title: Development of monitoring techniques to assess impact of Spartina control on sedimentation on tidal flats.(Estimated £120K) Sponsor: Department of Environment Northern Ireland, (Environment Heritage Service)
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6. Mr Wills Agricole - CV
NAME: Wills, Michel SURNAME: Agricole
DATE OF BIRTH 25th September 1957 MARITAL STATUS: Married ADDRESS: Petit-Paris, Mahe, Seychelles, Tel: 550174, 714419
LANGUAGE: Fluent in written and spoken English and French
TRAINING AND QUALIFICATION 1.Masters in Tropical Meteorology Place : - Toulouse, France Institute :- Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie Date/Duration:- Sept. 1996- Dec.1997( 16 months)
2. Diploma In Management Place : - Majoie, Mahe, Seychelles Institute :- Seychelles Institute of Management Date/Duration:- Jan 1995 - Dec.1998 3. Introduction and advanced Access Place : - Majoie, Mahe, Seychelles Institute :- Seychelles Institute of Management Date/Duration:- 18th April- 9th May and 4th July - 25th 1998 4. Computer Training for the MDD/CLICOM Systems Place : - Niamey, Niger Institute :- ACMAD Date/Duration:- 2ND TO 31ST March 1995
5. Training in TV Weather Presentation Skills and PWS Place : - Nairobi, Kenya Institute :- Kenya Broadcasting Cooperation Date/Duration:- 5th to 16th November 1994 6. Management Development Centre Workshop Place : - Reef Hotel, Mahe Institute :- Britz Management Consultants Date/Duration:- 29th TO 31ST August 1993
7. Training For Meteorological and Hydrological Instructors Place : - Turin, Italy Institute :- International Centre for Advanced . Technical Vocational Training Date/Duration:- 7th Sept. - 25th Sept 1992
8. Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Place : - Miami, USA Institute :- University of Miami Date/Duration:- 5th Feb - 25th April.1986
9. Diploma In Meteorology Class II (Forecasting)
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Place : - Nairobi, Kenya Institute :- Institute for Meteorological Training . and Research Date/Duration:- Jan 1981 - Dec.1982
10. Diploma In Meteorology Class IV Place : - Nairobi, Kenya Institute :- Institute for Meteorological Training . and Research Date/Duration:- Jan. 1977 - June1977
WORK EXPERIENCE Joined the DCA as a Met. Assistant in April 1976 Acting Director (National Meteorological Services): 1st July 2001 to date Assistant Director(National Meteorological Services (1st April 2000 to 30th June 2001 Principal Meteorological Officer ( Climate and Forecasting Unit): 1st Sept. 1998 to 31st March 2000 Senior Meteorological Officer (Climate Change issues, and Aviation and Real Time Services): 1st Jan - 31st Aug 1998 Senior Meteorological Officer (Climate Center/Public Weather Services): 1993 – 1996 Senior Meteorological Officer (Operations): 1991 –1993 Meteorological Officer: 1982 – 1991 Senior Meteorological Assistant: 1979 –1982 Meteorological Assistant : 1976 – 1979
List of Papers Written: · Evaluation d'une nouvelle methode d'Assimilation de Cyclone Tropicaux · The socio- economic Impact of Tropical Cyclone IkONJO over the Seychelles (May 16-22 1990) · Seychelles Climate Systems 1998 · Seychelles National Sea Level Data Report 1999
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7. Mr Robert Lajoie
Surname: Lajoie First Names: Robert, Francis Date of Birth: 16th June 1956 Place of Birth: Victoria, Mahé, Seychelles Marital Status: Married (one child born 13/5/89) Nationality: Seychellois Present Function: Senior Meteorologist
Personal Address: Pointe Au Sel Mahé, Seychelles Tel 371798 or 515798
Professional Address: Ministry of Environment and Transport Division of Policy, Planning and Services National Meteorological Services P.O. Box 1145 Tel: (248) 384066 Fax: (248) 384078 E-Mail: [email protected]
Education and Training · Certificate in "Long Range Weather Forecasting" - Nanjing Institute for Meteorological Training, China - (October/November 1999).
· Diplôme de Langue Française - Alliance Française de Paris - (January - December 1998).
· Certificat d'Etudes de Français Pratique [2ème Degré] - Alliance Française de Paris - (September1997 - June 1998).
· Diploma in Management - Seychelles Institute of Management - (February 1995 - May 1997) [Study Modules: - Organisation and Management Theory, Human Resources Development, Quantitative Techniques, Strategic Management, Marketing Management, Financial Management, Management Information Systems and International Business Management].
· Certificate in Personnel Management - Seychelles Institute of Management - (February - November 1994).
· Certificate in Statistics for Climatologist - University of Reading, U.K. - (July - September 1990)
· Certificate in "Understanding Climate" - University of East Anglia, U.K. -
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(April - June 1985).
· Diploma in Meteorology Class II - Institute of Meteorological Training and Research - Nairobi, Kenya - (January 1980 - December 1981).
· Diploma in Meteorology Class IV - Institute of Meteorological Training and Research - Nairobi, Kenya - (February - June 1977).
· Secondary Education - Seychelles College - (January 1969 - December 1973) [O-level Certificate in: - Mathematics, Physics, Geography, History, Biology, English and French].
(Between 1981 to date, I've also attended various overseas Seminars and Training Workshops related to the science of Meteorology).
Professional Work Experience
· 1991 to date Senior Meteorologist Meteorological Services · 1981 to 1991 Meteorological Officer Meteorological Services · 1974 to 1981 Meteorological Assistant Meteorological Services
Foreign Languages
· English (read, write, spoken and understanding) - very good. · French (read, write, spoken and understanding) - good.
8. Michel Naletamby -CV
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Name: Michel Nalletamby
Home Address: Bel Ombre, Mahe, Seychelles
Contact Address: Ministry of Tourism & Civil Aviation, P.O. Box 92, Independence House, Victoria, Seychelles Tel: 248-611100 / Fax: 224035 Email: [email protected]
Date of Birth:22nd April 1968
Nationality: Seychellois
National Identity Number: 968-0009-5-1-24
Education: Seychelles Polytechnic
Ordinary level Mathematics, Physics, Economics, English and French
Advance Level Mathematics and Economics
Sept. 1990-Jul. 1993 University of Mauritius
Bachelor Degree in Economics
Professional Experience:
Oct. 1993-Nov. 1995 Economist, Ministry of Industry
Dec. 1995 to Sept. 1998 Senior Economist, Ministry of Industries and International Business
Sept. 1998 to Sept. 2001 Director, Tourism Planning, Tourism Development Division, Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation
Sept. 2001 to Date Ag Director General Tourism Development Division Special Responsibilities:
Jul. 1994-Jan. 1995 Responsible for the Desk for the Re-Installation Programme under the Turtle Shell Compensation and Re-Installation Programme of the World Bank.
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Jun. 1995-Aug. 1998 Member of the Board of Directors of the Civil Construction Company Limited, CCCL. (Representative of the Ministry of Industry)
Aug. 1997-Sept. 1998 Member of the Immigration Office’s Committee responsible for the recommendation of Gainful Occupation Permits for foreigners. (Representative of the Ministry of Industry)
April 1999-Aug. 1999Group Leader of the Tourism and Aesthetics Sector for the preparation of the Environment Management Plan of Seychelles (2000-2010)
Sept. 2000 to date Member of the Board of Directors of the Seychelles Marine Parks Authority
Course/Seminars/Workshops:
Feb. 1996 Workshop Seychelles
Training in Financial Procedures of the European Development Fund
Nov. 1996-Feb. 1997 Short Course IDEP, Dakar Senegal
“Sectoral, Specialisation Course on Industrial Development”
Apr. 1997 Workshop Seychelles
ADB Procurement and Disbursement Procedures
Nov. 1997 Conference Noordwijk, The Netherlands
Experts Meeting on Environmental Practices in Offshore Oil and Gas Activities
Oct. 1998 Seminar Lanzarote, Canary Islands
“Sustainable Tourism in Small Island Developing states and other Islands”, oranised by the World Tourism Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme.
Feb. 1999 Seminar Harare, Zimbabwe
“Regional Seminar on Trade and Environment ,” organized by the World Trade Organisation.
Oct. 1999 World Tourism Organisation Practicum, Madrid, Spain Tourism Policy and Strategy
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Others
Dec. 2000 Contracted by ACOPS (Advisory Committee on Protection of the Sea) as a National Team member for the Working Group on Integrated Problem Analysis (WGIPA)
References:
Mr. Bertrand Rassool, High Commissioner of Seychelles to the United Kingdom
Mr. Barry Faure, Director General, Local and International Business Division, Ministry of Industries and International Business
Languages: English, French and Creole (written and spoken)
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9. Mr Francis Coeur-de-Lion-CV
Name: Francis Antoine Coeur de Lion Date of Birth: 19th February 1973 Place of Birth: Victoria, Mahe Sex: Male Residence: Belonie, Mahe, Seychelles Contact: Tel: 32 16 45 Written and Spoken language: Creole, English and French
EDUCATION
On the 1st October 1994 I left for United Kingdom to study
Course: BA (Honours) Degree in Geography Country: England City: Newcastle Upon Tyne Duration: 3 Years Sponsor: Ministry of Education and Culture (Seychelles)
Seychelles Polytechnique (School of Humanities and Science)
1991 – One year O Level GCSE in French, Geography, History and English 1992 to 1993 – Two years A Levels in French, Economics and Geography
January till end of September 1994
After the A Levels students has to wait for the results to see who will proceed to further studies. In the meantime the candidates had to do a job and I was teaching.
TEACHING AT LA ROSIERE SCHOOL
Subject taught: Geography but I had to cover some other classes as well
Other Achievements
1984: I won a prize in the art competition organized by the Centre Culturel Francaise
1986 – 1988: Part of the Belonie School quiz competition team
1988: Came second in an individual televised quiz competition
1995 – 1996: Won the North East of England volleyball championship in Division one
1996: The University of Newcastle was placed 14th overall in the league nationwide
1997: July-Nov: Played in a nearly semi-professional volleyball club called Hebburn.
To date
10th – 14th April 2000
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I attended the Oil Spill Response Course in Cape Town, South Africa. The course was organized by South Africa with participating lecturers from France and USA and it was attended by Seychelles as well as Mauritius, Madagascar, Comoros and South Africa. The aim of the course is to help countries dealt with an oil spill should it happen. The role of the Centre for GIS is to create a Sensitivity Atlas from which the situation can be assessed and important decision may be taken minimize damage.
10th – 11th July 2000
I attended a course in GIS Tools for Boundary Delimitation and Management in Durham, England. The course was organized by International Boundaries Research Unit (IBRU) and conducted at Durham University. We saw the participation of Seychelles, Mexico, USA, Australia, France, Nigria, Chile, Namibia, Kygriz Republic and Macedonia. The lecturers were from, Survey of Israel, University of Durham, Geofix Pty from Australia, CARIS – Canada and United States Department of States.
The aim of the course was to provide countries with the necessary tools to successfully demarcate their territory.
The subjects touched were; GIS and its concepts, territorial disputes and resolving disputes using GIS/imagery, managing geographic information on Maritime Boundaries and finally we had a practical with CARIS LOTS (Laws Of The Sea) which is a tool for maritime boundary delimitation.
January 2000
I became a member of the Seychelles National Climate Change Committee. This is a committee, which is directly affiliated with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). One of the major roles of the committee is to promote awareness about the fact that the global climate is getting warmer and everyone will be affected by these changes. Thus people have to get together use various mechanism to try and slow down if not reverse the effect.
4th – 15th September 2000
I attended the 13th Session of the Subsidiary Bodies for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Lyon, France. Most countries participated in this meeting and it was the preparatory session on climate change for the Conference of Parties, sixth edition (COP 6) to be held in Hague, Holland the same year. The main aim of the meeting was to get countries to discuss and agree on common grounds to be adopted in Hague.
18th March – 22nd April 2002
I attended an advanced training course in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems in Damascus, Syria. The aim of the course was to use these techniques in combating land degradation and desertification.
The software ERDAS IMAGINE 8.4 was to create one image (LANDSAT TM) from 7 bands of an area in Syria. The software was also used to perform image processing e.g. geo-referencing, radiometric correction, haze correction, calibration and so on. Models were used to facilitate all the computations. The different items e.g. sand were then classified stored as a GIS file.
The software ARC/INFO 8.1 was used to create columns and compute changes from one year to another year for comparisons. The Software ArcView GIS 3.1 was finally used to display and print the results. A field was organized enabling us to perform ground truth analysis and compare the result with the satellite data.
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ANNEX 3 COMOROS CV FORMAT
( CV’s of researches involved in the Comoros component are not repeated here)
1. Mrs Isabelle Niang-Diop-CV
NAME : NIANG - DIOP First name : Isabelle Date and place of birth : 15 October 1954 , Niort (France) Family situation : married, 4 children Nationality : Senegalese Occupation : Lecturer at the Geology Department of the University of Dakar, since 1984 Business address : Département de Géologie, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar Fann (Sénégal) Phone numbers : Office (221) 825 07 36 ; Home : 835 62 73 Fax number : (221) 824 63 18 Email : [email protected] Home address : Golf sud, 14/E, Dakar (Sénégal)
DIPLOMA
· Third cycle thesis in Geology and Applications to the Marine Environment. University of Bordeaux I (France), 1982. “ Microfacies study of deep sea sediments. Contributions to the knowledge of sedimentary dynamics and bioturbation processes ” · University thesis in Coastal Geology. University of Angers (France), 1995. “ Coastal erosion on the Petite Côte of Senegal from the Rufisque example. Past - Present - Future ”
OTHER OCCUPATIONS
· Member of the regional task team for the joint IOC/UN Programme on Ocean Sciences in relation to Non-Living Ressources (OSNLR) in the Central and Eastern Atlantic (IOCEA). · Member of the UNEP task team on Implications of Climate Changes in the West and Central Africa Region (WACAF). · Vice-Chairman of the IOC Editorial Board for the International Bathymetric Chart of the Central Eastern Atlantic (IBCEA). · Member of the National IPCC Committee, encharged of coastal zones, Group II. · Member of the Editorial Board of the Bulletin Africain. · Head of the Geology Department (1997-2000) · Member of the IGCP Scientific Board · Review editor of the coastal zone chapter of the IPCC special report on technology transfer · Review editor of the Africa chapter of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (Group II) · Member of the UNFCCC Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention.
EXPERIENCE IN PROJECTS AND CONSULTATIONS
PROJECTS CONDUCTED
1989-1991. Project Erosion in Rufisque funded by IRDC (International Research Development Centre) (Canada).
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Report : “Projet Erosion à Rufisque (Sénégal)” (1991), 55 p.
1997-2000 Project Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change of the Senegalese Coastal Zone. Funded by the Netherlands Assistance Programme. Project leader. Report : “ Etude de vulnérabilité des côtes sénégalaises aux changements climatiques » (2000), 152 p.
CONSULTATIONS
1995-1997 Participation in the National Action Plan for Environment . Report on the “niayes” ecogeographic zone and synthesis of the ecogeographic zones.
1998 Consultation for ACOPS (Advisory Committee on Protection of the Sea) in preparation of the Cape Town conference on Cooperation for the Development and Protection of the Coastal and Marine Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Two reports.
NIANG-DIOP, I., JONES, T. (1998) National Policies and Policy Responses Relevant to the Development and Protection of the Coastal and Marine Environment of sub-Saharan Africa. In : ACOPS/UNEP “ Background Papers ” ACOPS Conference on Cooperation for the Development and Protection of the Marine and Coastal Environment in sub-Saharan Africa, Londres, 55-81.
NIANG-DIOP, I., JONES, T. (1998) Support Provided from Non-National Resources to Address Problems in the Coastal and Marine Environment of sub-Saharan Africa. In : ACOPS/UNEP “ Background Papers ” ACOPS Conference on Cooperation for the Development and Protection of the Marine and Coastal Environment in sub-Saharan Africa, Londres, 83-101.
2000 Consultations for UNEP. Assistance to countries (Comoros and Djibouti) for their vulnerability and adaptation studies to climate change.
Consultation for UNESCO on the GEF project “Development and Protection of Coastal and Marine Environment in sub-Saharan Africa”.
PUBLICATIONS (since 1990)
NIANG, I. (1990) Responses to the impacts of greenhouse-induced sea level rise on Senegal. In : Titus J.G. (ed.) “ Changing Climate and the Coast ” Volume 2 : Western Africa, the Americas, the Mediterranean Basin, and the rest of Europe. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, 67-87, 2 fig., 1 app.
NIANG, I. (1991) Littoral placers in Senegal. In : Stow D.A.V. et Laming D.J.C. (eds) “ Geosciences in Development ”. A.A.Balkema, Rotterdam, 191-195, 2 fig., 3 tab.
DENNIS, K.C., NIANG, I., NICHOLLS, R.J. (1993) Sea-level rise in Senegal : impacts and responses. In : Awosika L.E., Ibe A.C., Shroader P. (eds) “ Coastlines of Western Africa ”. ASCE, New York, 354-368, 4 fig., 2 tab.
NIANG-DIOP, I. (1993) Coastal erosion in Senegal. The case of Rufisque.
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In : Awosika L.E., Ibe A.C., Shroader P. (eds) “ Coastlines of Western Africa ”. ASCE, New York, 75-89, 6 fig., 4 tab.
NICHOLLS, R.J., AWOSIKA, L.F., NIANG-DIOP, I., DENNIS, K.C., FRENCH, G.T. (1993) Vulnerability of West Africa to accelerated sea-level rise. In : Awosika L.E., Ibe A.C., Shroader P. (eds) “ Coastlines of Western Africa ”. ASCE, New York, 294-308, 3 fig., 3 tab.
DEBENAY, J-P., LEUNG-TACK, D., BA, M., SY, I. (1994) Environmental conditions, growth and production of Anadara senilis (Linnaeus, 1758) in a Senegal lagoon. J.Moll.Stud., Londres, 60, 17-25, 9 fig.
NIANG-DIOP, I. (1994) Les problèmes environnementaux de la côte du Sénégal. Ecodécision, Montreal, 11, 40-43.
NIANG, I., DENNIS, K.C., NICHOLLS, R.J. (1994) The impacts of sea-level rise on the coastline of Senegal. In : O’Callahan, J. (ed.) “ Global Climate Change and the Rising Challenge of the Sea ”. Proceedings IPCC workshop, Margarita Island, Venezuela, Mars 1992, N.O.A.A., Silver Spring (Md), 407-426, 8 fig., 8 tab.
DENNIS, K.C., NIANG-DIOP, I., NICHOLLS, R.J. (1995) Sea-level rise in Senegal : potential impacts and consequences. In : Nicholls, R.J. et Leatherman S.P. (eds) “ The Potential Impacts of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise on Developing Countries ”, J.Coastal Res., Fort Lauderdale (Flo), Sp.Issue n°14, 245-261, 13 fig., 8 tab.
NIANG-DIOP, I. (1995) Impacts of climate change on coastal communities : The Senegal example. In : Odingo R.S. et al. (eds) “ Equity and Social Considerations Related to Climate Change ”, WMO/UNEP, Nairobi, 273-279, 2 fig., 2 tab.
NIANG-DIOP, I. (1996) L’érosion côtière sur la Petite Côte du Sénégal à partir de l’exemple de Rufisque. Passé – Présent-Futur. Ed. ORSTOM, Paris, Theses et Documents Microfichés, 317 p. + 157 p. ann., 112 fig., 47 tab.
FALL, M., DIA, A., FALL, M., GBAGUIDI, I., LO, P.G., DIOP, I.N. (1996) Un cas d’instabilité de pente naturelle : le versant des Madeleines - Presqu’île de Dakar (Sénégal) : Analyse, cartographie des risques et prévention. Bull.Ass.Intern.Géologie Ingénieur, Paris, 53, 29-37, 5 fig., 1 tab.
NIANG-DIOP, I. (1998) Les études de vulnérabilité aux changements climatiques : le cas des pays africains côtiers. Bull.Africain, Dakar, n°10, 25-37, 1 fig., 7 tab.
GUEYE, K., NIANG-DIOP, I. (1999) Coastal protection works in Senegal : Example of the Rufisque dikes. In : Proceedings of the 5th International conference on Coastal and Port Engineering in Developing Countries, Cape Town, 19-23 avril. Vol.1, 760-775, 6 fig., 8 tab.
SARR, R., NDIAYE, P.M., NIANG-DIOP, I., GUEYE, M. (2000) Datation par les Foraminifères planctoniques d’une activité volcanique d’âge lutétien à Toubab Dialaw (Sénégal occidental). Bull. Soc. Géol. France, Paris, 171(2), 197-205, 2 fig., 3 pl. ph.
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FAYE, S., NIANG-DIOP, I., CISSE FAYE, S., EVANS, D.G., PFISTER, M., MALOSZEWSKI, P., SEILER, K.P. (2001) Seawater intrusion in the Dakar (Senegal) confined aquifer : calibration and testing of a 3D finite element model. In : Seiler, K-P. and Wohnlich, S. (eds) « New Approaches Characterizing Groundwater Flow », A.A. Balkema, Lisse, 1183-1186, 5 fig., 1 tab.
ETONGUE MAYER, R., NIANG-DIOP, I. (2001). Inventaire et évolution des formes littorales : cas de la presqu’île du Cap Vert (Sénégal occidental). Cah. Géol., Paris, 138, 1935-1950, 3 fig.
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2. Mr Mohamed El Habib Bourhane -CV
Non de famille: BOURHANE
Prénon: MOHAMED EL HABIB
Date et lieu de naissance: 30 mars 1957 Majunga Madagascar
Nationalité: Comorienne
Etat civil: marié, 6 enfant
B.P 1010 Moroni, Union des Comores Tel : (00269) 73 18 31
FORMATION Establishment: Insitut Polytechnique de Khartoun (soudan) Date: 1980 Diplome (s) obtenu (s) Ingénieur des travaux civils
Connaissance linguistiques: (par compéteusee de la 5,5 étant le maximum)
Langue Niveau Passif Parlé Ecrit Comorian Langue maternelle Français Bilingue 5 5 Anglais Connaissance parfaites 4 4
Associations ou corps professionnels: Membre du comité national Préparatoire dy PNE (Programme National sur l’Environnement) – Membre du Comité de Coopération Technique en Normalisation (CCTN) au niveau du PRIDE (Programme Regional Intégré des Echanges) COI
Autres qualifications (ex. Connaissances informatique etc.) Word, Excel Expert auprés du tribunal de 1ere instances de Moroni
Position actuelle: Responsible de l’urbanisme et de l’habitat
Nombre d’années d’experience professionelle : 20
Principales qualifications:
Controle des bétons d’ouvrage d’art sur la construction de route itinéraire chomoui-bandamadji
Etudes des matériaux pour bétons formulation et controle des bétons pour la construction du port de Mutsamudu (Anjouan)
Etudes géotechnique et controle de mise en oeuvre des matéiaux pouzzalaniques destine à la construction des terres pleins sur le port de Mutsamudu.
Etudes et controle des matériaux pour la contruction des logements éconique en bétons branche des sous oficiers comoriens
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Etudes des sols et controle des bétons pour la constuction de Palais du Peuple
Etudes géotechniques pour la construction de route itinéraire Mutsmudu – Sima – Pomoni
Etudes et controle des bétons pour la construction du complexe botcher Galawa
Etudes et gétechnique pour le projet d’elargissement des itinéraire des routes RN1 et RN2 sur l’ile de la grande Comore
Etude et controle des bétons pour la construction de la maison de la television
Presentation géotechniques auprês du bureau d’étude SECMO-O1 MORONI
Etude de la vulnérabilité et de l’aaptation au changement climatique des zones cotiêres des Comores
EXPÉRIENCE SPÉCIFIQUE DANS DES PAYS NON INDUSTRIALISÉS
Pays Date Nom et bréve description du projet Comores Depuis Juillet Responsible de l’urbanisme et de l’habitat Ministêre de l’Equipement, l’Energie et de l’Urbanisme
Expérience professionnelle:
Date 1981 – 2000 Lieu Moroni, Comores Société Ministêre des travaux Publics Poste Directeur du Laboratoire National des Travaux Publics Description de l’emploi Ecadrement et supervision des travaux d’infrastructures conception et realization
Date 1986-1998 Lieu Moroni, Comores Sociéte Entreprise Générale des terrassements Poste Consultant Technique Description de l’emploi Design conception des ouvrages de l’entreprise
Autres
Publications et seminaries:
· Conférences sur les matériaux bétons et assimilés à l’ISTED (Paris) 1984 · Atelier sur les matériaux de construction locaux, AIRDOI (Association des Institutions de Recherche dans l’Ocean Indien) Saint Denis la Réunion 1985 · 1ere conference Préparatoire sur les établissements humains suivi de la Réunion des Ministres charés des E.H en Afrique CNUEH Nairobi 1994 · 2eme Conférence Prépartoire sur les établissements humains CNUEH Nairboi 1985 · Conférence des Nations Unies sur les établissements humans habitat II Istanbul 1996 · Manuel de construction d’habitat pour les Comores · Etudes des sables pouzzolaniques aux Comores
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3. Mr Said Ahmed Othman - CV
FULL NAME: Said Ahmed Othman DATE OF BIRTH: November 11th, 1957 PLACE OF BIRTH: Ntsoudjini – Comore PERMANENT ADDRESS: Ntsoudjini – Grande Comore MARITAL STATUS: Married NATIONALITY: Comorian PRESENT POST: Geologist LANGUAGE SPOKEN: French, English, Russian, Swahili, Comorian
EDUCATION
1985 Diploma. Master degree in Geology Moscow state University (Lamonossov) RUSSIA Specialisation: Exploitation and exploration of mineral deposits
TRAININGS:
7th – 25th September 1987 – Certificate
· Geological applications of SPOT at Regional Centre for services in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing (RCSSMRS) in Nairobi (Kenya)
5th – 23rd September 1988 – Certificate
· Map-revision using Spot satellite data at RCSSMRS (Nairobi)
3rd – 12th July 1991 – Certificate
· ERS 1-SPOT a Complementary Approach for Natural Resouces Management at RCSSMRS
17th – 29th February 1992 – Certificate
· Nearshore Non-Fuel Mineral Exploration organized by International Centre for Ocean Development (ICOD) in Mombassa (Kenya)
4th – 15th May 1992 – Certificate
· Establishment of spacemap and landuse map of 1.50.000 scale of Grande Comore at the RCSSMRS in Nairobi
29th June – 10th July 1992 – Certificate
· ESR 1-SPOT a Complementary Approach for Coastal Environment Management at the RCSSMRS in Nairobi
1st October – 30th November 1993 – Certificate
· Research of methods for identification of the age of volcanic lava using Remote Sensing at SEAS station group (Surveillance de l’environnement Assitée par Satellite) ORSTOM in Saint – Denis – La Reunion
15th November – 1st December 1994 – Certificate
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· Studies of sismicity of Volcan Khartala (Grande Comore) and assessment of volcanic hazards in grande Comore at the Universite de la Renion (Reunion)
1st June 1995 – 30th June 1996 – Certificate
· Techniques of GIS (Geographic information system) and Remote Sensing at the RCSSMRS in Nairobi
6th October – 28th November 1997 – Certificate
· Introduction to MS-Office, Databasing and GIS at the Southern and Eastern African Mineral Centre (SEAMIC) in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania)
7th July – 28th 1999 – Certificate
· Managing, processing and presentation of geochemical surveys
February – March 1999 – Certificate
· Advanced geochemical data processing and data integration at SEAMIC in Dar es Salaam
WORKING EXPERIENCE
1994 – 2002 – Geologist – Head of water department in Ministry of public works and Energy in Comoros Responsible for hydrogéological studies for underground water project in Grande Comore
1995 – 1996 – Geologist and Remote sensing Assistant Train participants from member states countries of RCSSMRS the applications and technics of Remote Sensing in Nairobi
1991 – 1994 – Researcher at the National Centre for Scientifical Research (CNDRS). Sismicity studies of volcano Khartala and assessment of volcanic hazards Establishment of thematic maps using Spot satellite images of Grande Comore
1986 – 1989 – Geologist – UNDP – DTCD underground Water Project in Grande Comore (Comoros)
SKILLS
Quite conversant in using Microsof Office Software MS Access, MS-WORD, MS- Excel, other programs for image processing such as Multiscope, Ermapper. For SIG MapInfo, ArcInfo and Geosoft.
LANGUAGES
French, English, Russian, Swahili and Comorian
4. Mr Farid Anasse Hamidoune
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SPECIALITE : OPERATEUR PROGRAMMEUR EN INFORTMATIQUE ET EN SYSTEME D’INFORMATION GEOGRAPHIQUE ( SIG)
NOM et Prénom FARID ANASSE HAMIDOUNE
Date et lieu de naissance LE 27 JUILLET 1970 à Fomboni Mohéli
NATIONALITE COMORIENNE SITUATION FAMILIALE Marié
NOMBRE D’ENFANTS Une fille
ADRESSE BP 289 Moroni . TEL 73 63 88 / 73 62 22 Email : [email protected]
FORMATIONS ET DIPLOMES
1992 - Etude secondaire au Lycée de Mutsamudu Anjouan titulaire d’un diplôme de Baccalauréat (série A )
1994 - Etude Universitaire L'UNIVERSITE AMERICAINE DE NAIROBI KE NYA Obtention d’un Diplôme d 'ANGLAIS comme deuxième langue IN ADVANCED LEVEL
1995 - Diplômé en Opérateur Informatique à l’Institut Nationale de Nairobi Kenya
- Programmeur en informatique certifié à REDISA COLLEGE DE NAIROBI
Février- Mars 1998 - Formation de gestion de base des données textuelle à Comores Informatique – Moroni
31/08 au 15 /12/2000 - Stage de formation sur les statistiques pour la politique Environnementale au Centre de Munich pour la Statistique économique, Environnementale et Sociale
3 au 13/12/2001 - Formation sur l’interprétation des images satellites sur les UPWELLING et la couleur des océans à l’université de Cape Town Afrique du Sud
STATUT ACTUEL
Responsable de la Cartographie et du Système d’Information Géographique et Environnementale à la Direction Générale de l’Environnement des Comores, dans le cadre du Projet EAF/14 Base de Donnée et Atlas des zones côtière et Marine du Programme de Nations Unies pour l’Environnement. Objectif du projet : Mise en place de l’unité SIG pour la gestion de Base de Données Informatique et Atlas des zones côtières et marins des Comores. Membre fondateur d’A.I.D.E ( Association d’Intervention pour le Développements et l’Environnement) Consultant chargé de la préparation des cartes des zones côtières sensibles dans le cadre du Projet Régional de Lutte Contre les Déversements d’Hydrocarbures en mer, Iles de Sud Ouest de l’Océan Indien. ( financé par la Banque mondiale)
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Expert en SIG et Cartographe au projet Biodiversité /G32 – Comores. Consultant Cartographe – Projet Changement Climatique - Comores
DOMAINES DE COMPETENCE
- Opérateur Programmeur en Informatique Collecte , analyse et sauvegarde de l’information environnementale et de la production des outils de Système d’Information d’Aide à la Décision en utilisant le Système d’Information -Géographique. (SIG) - Conception et gestion de Base de Données Environnementale Cartographie Assistée à l’Ordinateur ( CAO) Interprétation des Prises des Vues Aérienne.
EXPERIENCE PROFESSIONNELLE
Depuis Septembre 1997 Consultant permanent à la DGE dans le cadre du projet EAF/14, du Programme de Nations Unies pour l’Environnement. Mise en place de l’unité SIG pour la gestion de Base de Données environnementale à la Direction Générale de l’Environnement. Consultant SIG Projet Régional de l’Environnement/ Commission de l’Océan Indien ( PRE/COI/UE) Consultant SIG à l’ Association d’Intervention pour le Développement et l’Environnement. Elaboration des cartes des zones de vulnérabilités : santé et éducation.. (CARE International) Comores. Elaboration des cartes des zones côtières sensibles pour la lutte contre les déversement d’hydrocarbures en mer ( projet régional de lutte contre les déversements d’hydrocarbures en mers dans les pays de Sud Ouest de l’Océan Indien - Expert SIG - CARE-Intetnational aux Comores.
STAGES
Avril - septembre 1997 - Stage de Système d’Information Géographique (SIG ) à la Direction Générale de l’ Environnement Mars- avril 1998 - Stage de Base de Données en Textow pour Windows Comore Informatique 1er au 7 juin 1999 - Stage de formation de plan de lutte contre les déversements des hydrocarbures et préparation des cartes des zones sensibles. ( Université de Cape-Town Afrique du Sud) organisée par le Projet Régional de lutte contre les déversements d’hydrocarbures dans les pays de Sud Ouest de l’ Océan Indien.
ATELIERS
27septembre au 1er octobre 99 - Atelier Régional Suivi des Récif, Ecotoxicologie et Aires Protégées Marine ( Flic en Flac Ile Maurice) Organisé par le Programme Régional de l’Environnement de la Commission de l’Océan Indien, Union Européenne 11 au 14 avril 2001 - Atelier interministériel de validation de plan de lutte contre les déversements d’hydrocarbures ( Palais du Peuple Moroni ) organisé par le ministère de la Production et de l’Environnement avec la COI/GEF
INFORMATIQUE
Système d’Information Géographique (SIG)et de Base des Donnes en ARC/INFO, ARC VIEW, ARC EXPLORER MAPINFO, ER Maper et Bilko.
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- Traitement du texte sur:
MICROSOFT WORD 7, Wordperfect 5.0 DESK TOP PUBLISHING HTML PowerPoint
Tableur en EXCEL 7, LOTUS 1.2.3 Internet explorer Outlook express Netscape navigateur
- Gestion de Base des Donnes Textuelle en Textow pour Windows
- Programmation en FOXPRO, DBASE III + et MICROSOFT ACESS
LANGUES Etrangères
Langues Degré de connaissance
Français Bon Anglais Bon Soihili. Bon
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