AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC/START/TWAS) ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TOURISM IN SMALL ISLAND STATES BASED UPON FIELD STUDIES IN SEYCHELLES AND COMOROS May 6, 2002 Final Submission Full Project Proposal by the Ministry of Environment (Seychelles) and Ministry of Environment (Comoros) in collaboration with the National University of Singapore, University of Ulster, and University of Kalmar. 1 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean Table of Contents PROJECT SUMMARY.................................................................................................................. 3 Project Coordination:.................................................................................................................. 3 Project Synopsis:......................................................................................................................... 3 PROJECT DESCRIPTION............................................................................................................. 5 Project Context............................................................................................................................ 5 Project Rationale and Theoretical Basis ..................................................................................... 6 OBJECTIVES AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS............................................................................. 14 Primary Objectives and Main Outputs:..................................................................................... 14 Project Justification................................................................................................................... 15 Participating Researchers and Institutions................................................................................ 16 Technical Approach.................................................................................................................. 19 Capacity Building ..................................................................................................................... 29 Relevance to decision making .................................................................................................. 30 References..................................................................................................................................... 31 Project Budget: SEYCHELLES ................................................................................................... 38 Project Budget: COMOROS......................................................................................................... 39 Indicative Work Plan .................................................................................................................... 41 Annex 1: Seychelles: Investigator Current & Pending Support ................................................... 42 Annex 1: Comoros : Investigator Current & Pending Support..................................................... 45 Annex 2: Letters of Endorsement ................................................................................................. 45 Annex 3 Seychelles CV format..................................................................................................... 46 2 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean PROJECT SUMMARY Title: ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TOURISM IN SMALL ISLAND STATES BASED UPON FIELD STUDIES IN SEYCHELLES AND COMOROS Project Coordination: INSTITUTION: COORDINATOR: The Seychelles Climate Centre Rolph Payet (Ministry of Environment) Director General P.O. Box 677 Policy, Planning and Services Division Victoria Ministry of Environment Mahe, SEYCHELLES Project Synopsis: Tourism is by far the most important economic sector in many small island states, including those in the Indian Ocean, and is highly dependent upon the resources that will be affected by climate change (Perez, 1999). The islands lack natural resources and are dependent on tourism as a major source of foreign exchange. Tourism is also a major employment generator, with high multiplier effects in many island states. Such dependence on one single economic sector emphasises the high vulnerability of island states should climate change severely affect the tourism industry. The impact of climate change on coastal tourism is the focus of this project for several reasons. (i) Tourism forms a vital socio-economic basis of many island states, (ii) Literature and research is very poor on this particular area of climate change impacts, (iii) The project provides a good field approach for involvement of stakeholders, (iv) Tourism operators are usually the front-line stakeholders involved in adaptation decision-making at the local scale and (v) The project allows the evaluation of autonomous responses by stakeholders and see how an integrated decision framework may be relevant. The research project is well integrated, across a variety of specialties from coastal management, climate scenarios, social research, marine resources and ecological economics. Since tourism is the primary economic driver in most island states, experience gained can be easily shared. Research on the impact of climate on tourism dates from the early seventies was oriented towards the development of an index, which attempted to synchronise the location and its climate with appropriate forms of tourism. With the advancement of technology to provide a better understanding of the relationships between climate and tourism and appropriate adjustments and adaptations options, early action can be implemented to effectively reduce the impact of climate change on tourism, hence the economic vulnerability of the island states. The research project encompasses several phases and specialist studies to be undertaken over a period of three years (2002-2004). The project will have four main components based on the framework proposed by Klein and Nicholls (1999) with methodology refinement, analysis of impact and adaptation of the tourism sector to future climate change, capacity building and a stakeholder involvement framework as cross-cutting activities. The research project will be implemented by a multidisciplinary team, with up to five international experts and six local experts from Seychelles, and possibly nine experts from Comoros. The Ministry of Environment in Seychelles, the Ministry of Environment in Comoros in partnership with the National University of Singapore, University of Ulster and the University of Kalmar, will manage the project. 3 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean Goals and Objectives: The goal of the project is develop and test a quantitative and stakeholder-driven vulnerability assessment process, with emphasis on developing an adaptation decision framework to address the impacts of climate change on tourism-dependent coastal resources. The project has four main research objectives: 1. Adapt and refine the Klein and Nicholls (1999) vulnerability assessment and adaptation methodology to undertake a realistic assessment of the impact of climate change on tourism of small island states; 2. Develop, using established methodologies, a stakeholder participation and capacity building framework within a structured process of scenario development and vulnerability assessment in determining future impacts of climate change on small island communities; 3. Advance the knowledge on the inter-relationships between a socio-economic sector, tourism, and climate change, and how these can be used to improve adaptation to climate change in small island states; 4. Develop a multi-stakeholder-enhanced adaptation decision framework, with a process of continuous evaluation which seeks to integrate stakeholder and quantitative research approaches. Outputs: The main project outputs are: 1. A refine methodology for implementation and assessment of climate change impacts in small islands, which can be applied in other sectors; 2. A set of scenarios that can be further refined by national experts within the adaptation framework 3. Increased knowledge on how to practically include stakeholders in the vulnerability and assessment (V&A) process. 4. A consistent set of transferable tools for V&A with specific applications to both coastal and tourism climate adaptation management. 5. Quantitative and qualitative insight into the linkages and impacts of climate change on tourism in small island states; 6. An approach and methodology for involvement of stakeholders in the assessment and adaptation to climate change process in small islands; 7. Capacity building for local experts and stakeholders in the implementation of the various techniques and increase awareness of climate change issues. 8. A stakeholder forum in place to establish a sustainable adaptation re-evaluation process to keep pace with the dynamics of the climate and the coastal area. 9. Series of peer-reviewed publications on the results of the project. 10. A government and stakeholder dialogue on V&A issues in place. COUNTRIES AND SECTORS COVERED: The Indian Ocean Region, with field studies in Seychelles (Mahe & Praslin islands) and Comoros (Grand Comore, Anjouan & Moehli islands) focusing on the coastal and marine environment, stakeholders, and the tourism sector. BUDGET: Total: $ xxx. Requested from AIACC: $xxx. Other sources: $xxx DURATION: 3 years 4 AIACC Research Project - Indian Ocean PROJECT DESCRIPTION Project Context Of the 36 countries with coastlines in the Indian Ocean, only four can be categorised as small island states (SIDS), namely