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Game Notes vs Tulsa Oklahoma State Wednesday, December 8, 2010 • 8 pm Tulsa, Okla. • BOK Center (19,200) Television — CBS College Sports Cowboy Basketball Satellite Radio — Sirius 158 Game Information Oklahoma State (7-1) Oklahoma State will travel down the Cimarron Turnpike to Tulsa to take on the Tulsa Golden Hur- Cowboy Basketball ricane (4-3) on Wednesday, Dec. 8, at 8 pm inside the BOK Center. The game will be televised by (just an SIDs best guess) Probable Starters CBS College Sports, with Dave Ryan handling the play-by-play duties and Pete Gillen providing 2010-11 Schedule Name Ht Wt Cl. PPG RPG expert analysis. This will be the 107th meeting between these two teams on the hardwood, with Time/ F 25 Darrell Williams 6-8 255 Jr. 7.5 10.4 OSU holding a 69-37 edge in the series. Day, Date Opponent TV Score F 33 Marshall Moses 6-7 255 Sr. 17.8 9.3 About Oklahoma State Sat., Nov. 13 HOUSTON BAPTIST W 86-73 * G 12 Keiton Page 5-9 165 Jr. 13.9 2.4 Oklahoma State is 7-1 this season and coming off a thrilling 92-87 double-overtime victory against Wed., Nov. 17 TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI W 68-58 * G 14 Ray Penn 5-9 165 So. 9.4 2.4 La Salle in Philadelphia. It was OSU’s first OT game of the season and the Cowboys’ 92 points are Sun., Nov. 21 NICHOLLS W 76-56 the most since they scored 97 against Oklahoma last February. G 15 Nick Sidorakis 6-4 195 Sr. 4.3 1.9 Thu., Nov. 25 vs DePaul ESPN2 W 60-56 The Pokes have a +9.5 scoring margin this season and have held six of their last seven opponents Fri., Nov. 26 vs Virginia Tech ESPN L 51-56 Off the Bench to less than 59 points. Excluding the two overtime period against La Salle, OSU is giving up an Sun., Nov. 28 vs Murray State ESPNU W 66-49 Name Ht Wt Cl. PPG RPG average of just 59 points this season during regulation. Much of the success can be attributed to Wed., Dec. 1 CENTRAL ARKANSAS W 69-57 the Cowboys’ dominance on the boards. Oklahoma State is outrebounding its foes by an average F 0 Jéan-Paul Olukemi 6-5 215 So. 8.5 4.1 of +9.6 boards per contest. OSU is also averaging nearly 35 points per game in the paint, nearly 18 Sat., Dec. 4 at La Salle 2 ot W 92-87 F 1 Jarred Shaw 6-10 235 So. 1.3 1.8 points more than the opponent. Wed., Dec. 8 vs Tulsa CBSCS 8 pm G 5 Reger Dowell 6-1 180 So. 1.0 0.5 Sat., Dec. 11 MISSOURI STATE CSN 7 pm Senior forward Marshall Moses is leading the team in scoring, averaging 17.8 points per game. He F 20 Mike Cobbins 6-8 205 Fr. 0.0 0.5 is shooting better than 58 percent from the floor. Junior guard Keiton Page is chipping in nearly Sat., Dec. 18 vs Alabama ESPN2 5:30 pm G 21 Fred Gulley 6-2 175 So. 2.3 2.6 14 points per contest while shooting 88.6 percent from the free-throw line. Four different players Tue., Dec. 21 STANFORD ESPNU 8 pm G 22 Markel Brown 6-3 190 Fr. 1.8 0.9 have blocked at least four shots in eight games this season — Moses (8), Matt Pilgrim (7), Darrell Fri., Dec. 31 at Gonzaga ESPN2 9 pm F 31 Matt Pilgrim 6-8 255 Sr. 4.5 4.8 Williams (6) and Jarred Shaw (4) — and nine players have at least four steals. Mon., Jan. 3 UTSA CSN 7 pm About Tulsa Sat., Jan. 8 KANSAS STATE ESPN2 12 pm Tulsa is 4-3 this season with a three-point loss to Appalachian State at home (89-86), an 80-71 Wed., Jan. 12 at Texas A&M Big 12 7 pm Tulsa (4-3) loss to UNLV in the first round of the 76 Classic, and a two-point loss at UALR (69-67). The Sat., Jan. 15 at Colorado Big 12 12:30 pm Golden Hurricane have defeated ORU (83-68), Missouri State (62-50), Stanford (65-53) and Cal (based on last game) Probable Starters State Northridge (80-63). TU is led by senior guard Justin Hurtt who is averaging 17.6 points per Wed., Jan. 19 IOWA STATE ESPNU 8 pm Name Ht Wt Cl. PPG RPG game and shooting 90 percent from the free-throw line. Three other Golden Hurricane are averag- Sat., Jan. 22 at Baylor Big 12 3 pm F 35 D.J. Magley 6-9 270 Jr. 2.7 3.9 ing double figures: freshman guard Jordan Clarkson (14.3 ppg), junior center Steven Idlet (13.0) Wed., Jan. 26 TEXAS ESPN/2 6:30 pm C 11 Steven Idlet 6-11 242 Jr. 13.0 5.7 and sophomore guard Scottie Haralson (12.7). Sat., Jan. 29 at Texas Tech Big 12 3 pm G 3 Jordan Clarkson 6-4 185 Fr. 14.3 2.1 Up Next Wed., Feb. 2 MISSOURI ESPN2 8 pm G 15 Justin Hurtt 6-4 201 Sr. 17.6 3.9 Oklahoma State will host the Missouri State Bears (6-2) on Saturday, Dec. 11, at 7 pm inside Gal- Sat., Feb. 5 OKLAHOMA Big 12 12:30 pm G 30 Scottie Haralson 6-4 227 So. 12.7 4.0 lagher-Iba Arena. The game will be televised by the Cowboy Sports Network. It will be just the Sat., Feb. 12 at Nebraska CSN 6 pm * assists per game second home game in seven contests for the Cowboys. In fact, OSU plays just three games at home in a 10-game span from Nov. 25-Dec. 31. Wed., Feb. 16 at Texas ESPN2 8 pm Sat., Feb. 19 TEXAS A&M ESPNU 8 pm Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Mon., Feb. 21 at Kansas ESPN 8 pm 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Off Day Players available (2:30 pm) Practice • 3:30 pm (closed) at Tulsa (8 pm) Players available (3 pm) Practice • 3 pm (closed) vs Missouri State (7 pm) Sat., Feb. 26 TEXAS TECH Big 12 12:30 pm Coach Ford available (2:45 pm) Travel Day Coach Ford available (3:15 pm) Tue., March 1 BAYLOR ESPN2 6 pm Practice • 3 pm (closed) Practice • 3:30 pm (closed) Sat., March 5 at Oklahoma Big 12 3 pm Table of Contents 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Season Statistics .............................. 4 Team Game-by-Game Stats........... 9 Events Off Day Practice • TBD (closed) Practice • TBD (closed) Practice • TBD (closed) Players available (TBD) Practice • noon (closed) vs Alabama (5:30 pm) National Polls .................................. 5 Points-Rebounds-Assists ............... 9 OSU/Opp Game Highs/Lows ..... 10 (Subject to change) to (Subject Coach Ford available (TBD) Travel Day Lane Furniture All- Big 12 Standings ............................. 5 Calendar of Practice • TBD (closed) College Classic Radio/TV Affiliates ........................ 6 Miscellaneous Statistics ............... 11 Oklahoma City Arena Season Schedule/Results ................ 9 The Last Time................................ 12 FINALS WEEK FINALS WEEK FINALS WEEK FINALS WEEK FINALS WEEK FINALS WEEK Boxscores ....................................... 13 Oklahoma State Cowboy Basketball Game Notes vs Tulsa — page 2 0 Jéan-Paul Olukemi 1 Jarred Shaw 4 Brian Williams 6-5 • 215 • Soph • Forward 6-10 • 235 • Soph • Forward 6-5 • 205 • Frosh • Guard LaHabra, Calif. Dallas, Texas Baton Rouge, La. (Stoneridge Prep/ Vincennes Univ) (Carter HS) (Glen Oaks HS) Quick Notes: ranks fourth on the team in scoring (8.5 ppg) and rebounding Quick Notes: scored four points in six minutes against Central Arkansas ... Quick Notes: has not played in a regular-season game ... scored nine points (4.1 rpg) ... has three games with 15 or more points (17 vs Virginia Tech, 16 played 12 minutes in OSU’s three games in Anaheim ... scored four points, in 10 minutes on 3-of-4 shooting from long range against Campbellsville ... vs Houston Baptist, 15 vs Central Arkansas) ... has three games with seven grabbed three rebounds and blocked three shots against Houston Baptist in played seven minutes against Oklahoma City and was productive, scoring rebounds (Houston Baptist, DePaul, Central Arkansas) ... has the most free- the season opener ... recorded nine points, eight rebounds and six blocked two points, grabbing three rebounds while also recording one assist and a throw attempts (40) on the squad ... is shooting 47.5 percent from the floor ... shots against Campbellsville in 18 minutes of court time ... scored 14 points steal ... shot 4-of-7 from the floor in two exhibition games ... celebrated his name is pronounced ‘zhan-PAUL oh-loo-KIM-ee’. off the bench against Oklahoma City ... was 6-of-7 from the floor and also 18th birthday on Sept. 20, making him the youngest player on the team. grabbed three rebounds in 18 minutes against the Stars. Season Highs Season Highs Pts Rebs Asts Stls Blks FGs 3FGs FTs Min Season Highs Pts Rebs Asts Stls Blks FGs 3FGs FTs Min 17 7 2 2 1 6 2 9 30 Pts Rebs Asts Stls Blks FGs 3FGs FTs Min 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Career Highs 4 3 1 0 3 2 0 2 13 Career Highs Pts Rebs Asts Stls Blks FGs 3FGs FTs Min Career Highs Pts Rebs Asts Stls Blks FGs 3FGs FTs Min 17 7 2 2 1 6 2 9 30 Pts Rebs Asts Stls Blks FGs 3FGs FTs Min 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 1 2 3 2 0 3 13 5 Reger Dowell 12 Keiton Page 14 Ray Penn 6-1 • 180 • Soph • Guard 5-9 • 165 • Junior • Guard 5-9 • 165 • Soph • Guard Duncanville, Texas Pawnee, Okla.
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  • Predictive Bayesian Selection of Multistep Markov Chains, Applied To

    Predictive Bayesian Selection of Multistep Markov Chains, Applied To

    Predictive Bayesian selection of multistep Markov chains, applied to the detection of the rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org hot hand and other statistical Research dependencies in free throws Joshua C. Chang1 Article submitted to journal 1 Epidemiology and Biostatistics Section, Rehabilitation Medicine Department, The National Author for correspondence: Institutes of Health, Clinical Center, Bethesda, Joshua C. Chang Maryland 20892, U.S.A. e-mail: [email protected] Consider the problem of modeling memory effects in discrete-state random walks using higher-order Markov chains. This paper explores cross validation and information criteria as proxies for a model’s predictive accuracy. Our objective is to select, from data, the number of prior states of recent history upon which a trajectory is statistically dependent. Through simulations, I evaluate these criteria in the case where data are drawn from systems with fixed orders of history, noting trends in the relative performance of the criteria. As a real-world illustrative example of these methods, this manuscript evaluates the problem of detecting statistical dependencies in shot outcomes in free throw shooting. Over three NBA seasons analyzed, several players exhibited statistical dependencies in free throw hitting probability of various types – hot handedness, cold handedness, and error correction. For the 2013–2014 through 2015–2016 NBA seasons, I detected statistical dependencies in 23% of all player-seasons. Focusing on a single player, in two of these three seasons, LeBron James shot a better percentage after an immediate miss than otherwise. In those seasons, conditioning on the previous outcome makes for a more-predictive model than treating free throw makes as independent.