Weekly Political and Economic Review 01 April 2021

1. Policy/Legislative Updates 1.1. Promotion of Equality and Prevention of Unfair Discrimination Amendment Bill − On 26 March 2021, the Department of Justice and Constitutional Development invited interested parties to comment on the Promotion of Equality and Prevention of Unfair Discrimination Amendment Bill; − The Bill seeks to address the weaknesses of the current Promotion of Equality and Prevention of Unfair Discrimination Act adopted in 2000; − The proposed amendments will strengthen the state’s ability to prevent discrimination and promote equality for all South Africans; − It seeks to amend and broaden the definition and scope of equality and discrimination; − The amendment would require that companies show they have taken reasonable steps to prevent discrimination in the workplace to avoid facing legal consequences; − The amendment; − The amendments make the law more realistically implementable, as the draft bill seeks to clarify and reduce certain duties for the state; − The Bill strengthens enforcement of the provisions of the Act as it now criminalises the wilful submission of false information by any person.

1.2. Section 25 Amendment − On 31 March, members of the ad hoc committee working on the Section 25 constitutional amendment met to finalise the draft bill;

− This follows a the Committees briefing on the draft bill by the Department of Land Affairs, which supports the bill; − Parliament’s legal advisors have warned that removing certain sub sections in the Constitution to allow for land expropriation could be unconstitutional; − They have, however, added that the amendment passes the rationality test; − The legal advisors offered Members of the Committee a legal opinion following a week of public hearings; − In response, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) member Floyd Shivambu stated that the advice attempts to stand in the way of land reform; − The has been in full support of the land reform agenda; − The Committee is expected to meet, once again, in the coming weeks to finalise deliberations.

2. COVID-19 Updates 2.1. Vaccine Rollout − On 29 March, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced will have to about 30 million Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccines, to be produced at the Eastern Cape Aspen manufacturing facility; − He was speaking after a visit to the factory that would be producing the vaccine in Gqeberha, alongside Deputy President David Mabuza and Health Minister Zweli Mkhize; − On 28 March 2021, during the ANC’s National Executive Committee meeting,. Health Minister Zweli Mkhize stated government’s target of200 000 vaccinations a day from mid- May;

− This comes after weeks of criticism about the government’s slow vaccine rollout; − Mkhize stated that more than 2000 vaccination sites including: stadiums, shopping centres, churches and hospitals had been identified for the rollout due to kick off in Mid- May; − A batch of 2.8 million J&J vaccine doses is expected to arrive at the end of April; − Ramaphosa criticised what he called “vaccine apartheid,” calling for equality in vaccine procurement and stating that countries with the capacity to manufacture vaccines should be allowed to do so by the World Trade Organization; − Democratic Alliance leader has criticised the president’s comments on “vaccine apartheid,” blaming the delayed vaccine rollout on the incompetence of the president for delegating the vaccine programme instead of directing it himself; − Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) President Julius Malema, on the other hand, accused the government of being incapacitated because it blocks out vaccines from places which are not America or Europe; − He further threatened that to go on protest in demand of more efficient vaccine rollout;

2.2. Easter Period Restrictions − President Cyril Ramaphosa addressed the nation on 30 March, giving an update on national efforts in the fight against COVID-19; − His address came in the midst of growing concern over the vaccine rollout programme and fears of a third infection wave as the country moves closer to the Easter weekend period; − President Ramaphosa announced that the country would remain at Alert Level 1, with the following restrictions in place: o Curfew remaining between midnight and 4am, o Interprovincial travel remains permitted, o Beaches, parks and other public recreational spaces are to stay open, with the condition that health protocols such as social distancing and mask-wearing be followed,

o On-site sale of alcohol at restaurants and bars is permitted according to licensing conditions up to 11pm, while sale of alcohol for off-site consumption is prohibited between 02 April and 05 April 2021, o Funeral restrictions remain at a maximum of 100 people, with a two-hour service limit; o Over the Easter period, religious gatherings are restricted to a total of 250 people indoors and 500 outdoors, with no more than 50% of a venue’s capacity if the venue is too small for social distancing. − Ramaphosa’s announcement of an increased cap for religious gatherings has been welcomed by religious organisations; − Faith-based organisations along with the South African Council of Churches have welcomed the announcement, although still disappointed at not being allowed larger numbers; − The Democratic Alliance’s John Steenhuisen stated that the off-site alcohol sales restrictions were unscientific and only worked to place unnecessary strain on the livelihoods of those making a living in the sector; − He accused the government of being out of ideas and out of touch with the plight of its citizens; − South African Liquor Brand owners Association (Salba) chairperson commented that the state needed to have discussions with the industry about the rationale behind the continued restrictions of alcohol sale for retailers and the impact of these restrictions; − Lucky Ntimane, Convenor of the National Liquor Traders Council, announced that the partial sale of alcohol was welcome, and would support the sector’s path to recover, but criticised the decision on off premises sales as one that would negatively affect retailers;

3. ANC NEC Meeting − On 29 March 2021, President Cyril Ramaphosa gave a national briefing on the African National Congress’s (ANC) National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting, which took place from 26 March to 28 March 2021; − The NEC resolved that all members charged with corruption and other serious crimes should step aside within 30 days; − Failure to step down will result in a suspension subject to the terms of Rule 25 (70) of the ANC’s Constitution; − Secretary-General Ace Magashule was one of those told to step down, which comes on the heels of the ANC’s Integrity Committee report that recommended he should step down while facing criminal charges in December 2020; − The party welcomed Magashule’s decision to seek counsel from past ANC leaders; − Political analyst Professor Dirk Kotze stated that the step-aside policy was polarizing, with one side saying it must be accepted and the other arguing it would be unfair for Magashule to step aside since no court of law has found him guilty. − Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) leader Julius Malema criticised the ANC’s decision on Magashule, commenting that it was a move that should have been carried out at a gathering with ANC’s structures and not a small group of people; − Ramaphosa also announced a ban on the Radical Economic Transformation faction, condemning the establishment of groups within the party undermining the ANC;

4. The Zondo Commission 4.1. Former Eskom Executive Matshela Koko − Former Eskom Executive Matshela Koko, appeared before the Commission on 29 March; − Koko accused former Eskom board Chairperson Ben Ngubane and former Head of Legal Suzanne Daniels of being dishonest with the Commission; − He claimed Ngubane and Daniels had been dishonest about their knowledge of Gupta- linked email address “info-portal,” which was used to email instructions to various Eskom executives; − …Both Ngubane and Daniels had previously denied knowledge of the “info-portal” email address being a Gupta-linked address; − He denied doing the bidding of the Gupta family through their lieutenant Salim Essa, stating that he used to block contracts linked to Trillian Capital; − Koko accused President Ramaphosaof interfering with the running of Eskom between 2012 and 2014, during his tenure as Deputy President, claiming the interference was due to Optimum Coal Mine’s debt of over R1 billion; − He believes Ramaphosa’s interference was linked to ensuring the debt was not paid back; − Koko further accused the Commission of personally targeting him in what he called a “Koko hunt.”

5. State Owned Enterprises 5.1. SABC Retrenchments − As part of a financial turnaround plan, the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC), announced that 621 employees would be released from the organisation at the end 31 March 2021; − SABC spokesperson, Mmoni Seapolelo, said the Section 189 process (law permitting employers to dismiss employees for operational requirements) had begun with the issuing of notice in June 2020 and was set to conclude on 31 March; − The process was a struggle for the SABC owing to an uproar from employees and unions following its announcement; − The aim of the section 189 process was to cut about R700 million from the annual salary bill which stood at R3.2 billion a year; − The new SABC management needs to find ways to both re-establish organization’s financial probity as well as fulfilling its public mandate. − In response to retrenchment process, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has emphasised that they should only be implemented as a measure of last resort. The party further believes the retrenchments are part of a broader “jobs bloodbath” in the country; − The Broadcasting, Electronic, Media and Allied Workers' Union (Bemawu) has, in the past, expressed shock at the news, saying that the process came at a difficult period owing to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

5.2. PRASA Loses Court Battle Against Primedia − On 21 March 2021, after a 10-year battle, the High Court set aside a contract between the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) and Umjanji Media Consortium. Also included were cessation agreements between Umjanji and two other companies: Strawberry Worx and Siyathembana; − The case was linked to a five-year contract that PRASA awarded to Umjanji in 2010 for the provision of outdoor advertising on the sites owned by it; − The contract had previously been held by Primedia, who secured a court interdict upon learning of PRASA’s decision in 2011; − Primedia argued that PRASA should not have awarded the contract and exclusive rights to all outdoor advertising sites to a single company; − It was also uncovered that Umjanji did not exists at the time of the tender’s closure and only incorporated a month later; − A week before the contract was awarded in 2010, Umjanji ceded rights, effectively distributing the work to Strawberry Worx who had also been at the tender briefing; − Umjanji later ceded rights to Siyathembana in 2011, which meant revenues would be shared with these companies; − Strawberry Worx was implicated in the Zondo Commission, with former PRASA Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Lucky Montana being accused of interfering in the company’s contract; − Martha Ngoye, Group Executive for Legal Risk and Compliance at PRASA, testified that Strawberry Worx CEO Selvan Moodley had effectively dicated the terms of his company’s contract with PRASA’s property arm Intersite.

6. ICASA Extends Emergency Spectrum Allocations − A Pretoria High Court has blocked the Independent Communications Authority of South Africa’s (ICASA) scheduled multi-band spectrum auction, deeming the process irrational and unlawful; − The ruling follows an application by Telkom to review ICASA’s Invitations to Apply (ITAs) and the Wireless Open Access Network (WOAN); − On 8 March 2021, Telkom and e.tv secured an interdict preventing ICASA’s auction from taking place until the merits of their case had been heard; − Telkom’s argument was that the process could be abused in a way that allows large firms such as MTN and Vodacom to reinforce their dominance in the market; − ICASA announced, on March 26, that it would review the regulations and extend the emergency spectrum allocations for two more months, from 31 March to 31 May 2021; − The extension will provide relief to mobile operators, who will continue to deliver faster connectivity to customers so they can meet the surge in data demand; − The emergency spectrum had been allocated to several mobile operators and other licensees in April 2020 to meet a spike in internet demand during the COVID-19 lockdown; − The authority indicated that it will appeal the ruling, with the possibility of directly approaching the Constitutional Court; − ICASA intends on embarking on a comprehensive review of the ICT COVID-19 National Disaster Regulations, which include the spectrum extension.

7. Updated Draft Nationally Determined Contribution

− On 30 March 2021, Minister of Forest, Fisheries and Environment Barbara Creecy, unveiled South Africa’s updated Draft Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC); − The NDC outlines the country’s target for limiting greenhouse gas emissions as required in line with South Africa’s status as a Paris Agreement on Climate Change signatory; − After the integration of stakeholder inputs, the updated NDC is to be tabled for final Cabinet approval before it is deposited with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) climate negotiations in November 2021 in Glasgow; − The document proposes a commitment to reduce emissions at a faster pace by 2030; − The NDC also proposes that there is a need for higher levels of climate finance to support the country’s transition, proposing a rise from $2 billion to about $8 billion by 2030; − The newly created Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission will be seen as a key instrument towards achieving goals of the NDC.

8. World Bank Report − A new report published in the World Bank’s publication “Africa’s pulse” on 31 March 2021 forecasts economic growth for South Africa’s economy; − Following 2020’s 7% contraction due to COVID-19, the report says the economy will grow by 3% in 2021 if the country manages to vaccinate 60% of the population by the end of the current year; − The projection is an upward revision of the 2.6% that was projected in 2020; − The report noted that economic recovery also requires reforms that will lead to job creation, encourage investment and enhance competitiveness;

− The 60% vaccination of the population is projected to have a benefit-cost ratio of 29.3; − The benefit-cost ratio of South Africa’s vaccination rollout is projected to be positive under all scenarios with the ration being at 33.5 with only 20% of the population vaccinated and 55.5 with vaccination of 40%.

AFRICA WATCH

1. Mozambique Terrorist Attack in Mozambican Town − Islamic State (IS) terror group has claimed responsibility for the 24 March 2021 attack on the Mozambican town Palma, located close to gas projects worth $60 billion; − After three months of no attacks, the attack comes as part of an IS insurgency that has been steadily spreading across Northern Mozambique since 2017; − Thousands are missing from the town as many fled, with some making their way to the gas project site awaiting to be ferried off to Pemba. Other escapees fled by foot towards for days to Mueda, a town 180km away; − Since 30 March, more than 300 civilians arrived in Pemba by boat and by plane; − The insurgents claimed control over Palma’s banks, government offices, factories and army barracks, with dozens of people killed, including army troops, Christians and foreigners; − France-based oil and gas company Total announced on 27 March that it would be calling off a planned resumption of construction at the site of its $20 billion development near Palma;

− Lionel Dyck, Director of the Dyck Advisory Group, a private military company contracted by the Mozambican police to help fight rebels, stated that fighting had spread across the town on 29 March; − The United States sent military specialists to Mozambique in early March to assist train the Mozambican army after declaring the rebels to be a terrorist organisation; − Stephane Dujarric, United Nations Spokesman, condemned the Palma attacks, adding that the UN would continue to coordinate closely with authorities on the ground; − An expert described the attack as a game-changer, as it was implemented by a trained and determined force that strategically captured and held a town while sustaining a battle for control; − Jonathan Whittal, Director of Analysis for Doctors Without Borders said the attack had worsened an already bad humanitarian situation that had been neglected for too long in northern Mozambique; − Opposition parties Democratic Alliance and ActionSA have urged the local government to take action against the insurgents, warning that the violence could create a security and refugee crisis for South Africa.

2. Rwanda Report Finds France Not Complicit in Genocide - A Commission set up by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2019 reported that although France bears overwhelming responsibilities over the 1994 Rwandan Genocide, there is no evidence Paris was complicit in the killings; - The Commission was set up after years of accusations that France was complicit in the killings and had not done enough to stop them; - The report accused France of having been involved with a regime that encouraged racist massacres, remaining blind to the preparation of a genocide by radical elements of the regime;

- It criticised France for adopting a binary view that set former Hutu Rwandan President Juvenal Habyarimana as a Hutu ally against an enemy of Tutsi forces backed by Uganda, only offering military intervention when it had become too late to halt the genocide; - French intelligence had known that Hutu extremists had shot down Habyarimana’s plane which was an act seen as the trigger for the genocide; - A previous French judge’s report had denied this information and placed the blame on Kagame’s Rwandan Patriotic Front Party (RPF)

3. Sudan

Peace Talks with Rebel Group

− The Sudanese government has struck an agreement paving the way for peace negotiations with major rebel group Sudan’s People Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N); − SPLM-N, led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu, is one of two groups yet to sign a peace deal with transitional authorities that have been in power since the removal of former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019; − The Declaration of Principles, signed on 28 March 2021, outlines priorities including the establishment of a democratic, secular state allowing religious freedoms and unification of armed forces; − The rebels had been calling for a secular state, where religion plays no role in law-making, disbanding of al-Bashir’s militia and reforming of the country’s military; − With SPLM-N signing the Declaration, there remains only one rebel group, a faction of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), which remains a significant security challenge to the government.

4. Central African Republic President Faustin Archange Sworn In − On 30 March 2021, President Faustin Archange Touadera was sworn into the highest office for a second term;

− Touadera won the December 2020 election by about 53% and has been facing growing threat from an armed rebellion linked to the country’s former strongman Francois Bozzie; − The country has been facing deadly conflict since 2013, when predominantly Muslim rebels took power, forcing Bozzie from office. Mostly Christian militias later fought back; − A peace deal between 14 rebel groups and government was signed in February 2019, but violence blamed on Bozzie and his allies threw the agreement into doubt; − Recent clashes broke out after the Constitutional Court rejected Bozzie’s candidacy to run for the presidency in December, with rebels trying and failing to seize the capital in January; − Cameroonian Prime Minister Joseph Dion Ngute has expressed hope for stability in the lead up to the event; − Ngute said Cameroon President Paul Biya, who sent him to Bangui for the inauguration, has hope that Touadéra’s leadership will bring back peace to the C.A.R. and, by extension, to Cameroon; − Ngute stated that neither country can have stability while the other is in crisis because whenever one is in crisis the other needs to accept it’s citizens; − Ngute added that since both countries had economic interest the road linking Douala to Bangui, they would need the peace to protect the road from any disturbance to the supply of goods and services between the two countries.