A Tug of War: Overnight Versus Intraday Expected Returns Dong Lou, Christopher Polk, and Spyros Skouras1 First draft: August 2014 This version: January 2016 1 Lou: Department of Finance, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, UK and CEPR. Email
[email protected]. Polk: Department of Finance, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, UK and CEPR. Email
[email protected]. Skouras: Athens University of Economics and Business. Email sk-
[email protected]. We are grateful to John Campbell, Randy Cohen, Josh Coval, Roger Edelen, Andrea Frazzini, Narasimhan Jegadeesh, Marcin Kacperczyk, Toby Moskowitz, Paul Tetlock, Sheridan Titman, Dimitri Vayanos, Tuomo Vuolteenaho and seminar participants at Duisenberg School of Finance and Tin- bergen Institute, Hong Kong University, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, IDC Herzliya, IESE Business School, Imperial College, London Business School, London School of Economics, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Bristol, University of Minho, University of Minnesota, University of South- ern California, University of Zurich, 2015 Adam Smith Asset Pricing Conference, 2015 Crete Conference on Research on Economic Theory and Econometrics, 2014 Financial Research Association conference, 2015 NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting, 2015 NBER Asset Pricing Meeting, 2015 Western Finance Association Annual Meeting, ArrowStreet Capital, and Point72 Asset Management for helpful comments. We thank Andrea Frazzini, Ken French, and Sophia Li for providing data used in the analysis as well as Huaizhi Chen and Michela Verardo for assistance with TAQ. Financial support from the Paul Woolley Centre at the LSE is gratefully acknowledged. A Tug of War: Overnight Versus Intraday Expected Returns Abstract We show that momentum profits accrue entirely overnight while profits on all other trad- ing strategies studied occur entirely intraday.