Assessing dieback in the Gulf Norm Duke, Jock Mackenzie

Paul Barden, EMS Tony Griffiths NTG Kovacs lab “Unprecedented!”

South-eastern Gulf, Queensland

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern South-eastern Gulf, Queensland

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Limmen Bight,

October 2018

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Karumba, Queensland October 2016 >8,000 ha of mangrove dieback!

STATEMENT – ??? We recommend ….

aims & objectives “Unprecedented!”• To …

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia A message from Marranbala country

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Shoreline surveys

Marranbala Area of dieback Pormpuraaw country

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Source information: NESP mapping & shoreline surveys December 2017

STATEMENT – ??? We recommend ….

aims & objectives • To …

• 2,633 km surveyed in total • Flying distance of 4646 km and time of 172 hours 46 mins • 57,925 high res images

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Shoreline – oblique images Source: 2017 shoreline survey

Gulf of Carpentaria, Queensland WidespreadDieback not picked up by Satellite or pre 2015 Variable levels of impact Norman River Photo next slide

Leichhardt River

Basemap date: 14/5/2014

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Source information: NESP estuarine surveys & field studies 37 estuaries surveyed 2018 Queensland: 24 = 5+6+9+4 Northern Territory: 13 = 6+7

STATEMENT – ??? We recommend …. Sites of severe (~100%) aims & objectives and moderate (~50%) • To … dieback of mangrove fringe Limmen Bight

Mule Creek Pormpuraaw

Karumba World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Experimental design

2015 mangrove dieback

Observed as standing-dead with twigs/branches visible 4 x Gulf sites on dead trunks in 2017 • 2 x NT & 2 x Qld • 2 treatments at each – severe & STATEMENT – ??? We recommend …. moderate impacts

90-100% deadaims – 2015 & objectives dieback <50% dead – 2015 dieback • To …

Severe Moderate

• Vegetation structure – species, stem diameter, height, density, biomass (carbon) • Demography – tree cores (age) and stem diameters • Sedimentation – sediment cores (stratification) and history • Topography – profile elevation from above HAT to ~MSL • Invertebrate Fauna – census of mid frontal stand populations

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Management issues

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Works in progress

• Write up the data collected • Conduct workshops – Gulf forums & networking with stakeholders & end users • Continue raising the capacity of local community & Indigenous rangers to assist with and undertake monitoring of vegetation, animals & shoreline status – in partnership with researchers • Investigate the historical context & cause! • Investigate & quantify consequences/risks – fisheries, shorelines • Predictive modelling – tipping points & historical data!

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Planned outputs DoE – national management IMPACT – environmental Fisheries – industry impacts What? Where? CSIRO & DoE - Carbon losses TO Rangers – local custodians When? How bad?

CAUSE – local, regional BOM – links with climate Why? State & Local Govt. – management, mapping RECOVERY/DETERIORATION What next? DoE – national shoreline monitoring

MITIGATION – symptoms, cause State & Local Govt. – management policy, What can be done? standard methods ANCILLARY BENEFITS - Spin-offs DoE. Baseline data on habitat condition, sea level rise responses, climate influences, invasive weeds, feral animals, saline encroachment, fire damage, species inventories, migratory shorebirds. CSIRO. Ghost net threat to turtles. Rangers & Anthropologists. Indigenous cultural stone fish trap structures.

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Key achievements to date

TO Rangers – Field observers in ü partnership with NESP scientists National Shoreline Carpentaria Land Council Aboriginal Corporation Monitoring System Anthawirriyarra Land-Sea Ranger Unit Numurindi & Ngukurr Land-Sea Rangers Territory NRM & Northern Land Council ü Earth Observation for Govt network ü – Digital Earth Australia ShoreView National Mangrove Mapping Product

Data archive & display web portal of shoreline , UQ condition and drivers of State agencies change Australian Govt. DoEE GeoSciences Australia Aberystwyth University NESP Gulf project data

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Specific outputs

• Catchment-specific maps of risks to shorelines from dieback, highlighting vulnerable areas to inform coastal management • Information on implications and mitigation actions • Assessment of amount of carbon lost from dead/rotting trees (‘blue carbon’) • Recommendations for regular monitoring in the Gulf • Training manual and processes to support ongoing monitoring by Indigenous rangers • Info sheet on implications of project findings for EPBC- related matters • Technical reports and scientific papers

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Protecting species by informing ghost net work

• Confirmed predictions on where ghost nets might land

• Will guide pickup of nets with ranger groups across the Gulf

• Will contribute to better management and assessment of ranger clean-ups and prioritise funding

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Working with ranger groups in Qld & NT

• Identified fish traps in the Gulf to inform CLCAC and anthropological research • Contributed to production of artworks from Marranbala rangers about impacts of dieback on turtles • Invited to co-present at 2019 Qld Indigenous ranger forum • Contributed to film about Gulf coastline

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia Contributing to coastal planning & management

• Working with NT & Qld governments – Undertook joint field work & LiDAR surveys • Working with Bureau of Meteorology • Similar aerial survey work on east coast of Cape York Peninsula for DoEE – Supported design of the Reef Integrated Monitoring & Reporting

Program, and contributed to the Carla Wegscheidl Outlook Report for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park – Data has reset the baseline of condition of in the East Cape York Peninsula

World-class research to support sustainable development in northern Australia This project is supported through funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program

For more information please contact: Norm Duke 04 3919 1952 www.mangrovewatch.org.au ShoreView [email protected] shoreview.io/home

NMMP nationalmap.gov.au/#share=s-bFvJd7bIbqVTjidVhhoyrFaVXyD

www.nespnorthern.edu.au