19 April 2017 French Presidential Election Prepared for CEVIPOF and Le Monde

CONTACTS Brice Teinturier [email protected] Jean-François Doridot [email protected] Federico Vacas [email protected] 1 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 Technical note

SAMPLE DATES OF FIELDWORK METHODOLOGY

11 601 persons registered on the FROM 16 APRIL TO 17 APRIL 2017. ONLINE INTERVIEWS electoral rolls, constituting a QUOTA METHOD: GENDER, AGE, representative national sample of the INDIVIDUAL'S OCCUPATION, French population aged 18 years and REGION, URBAN/RURAL. over.

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As with any quantitative survey, this study presents results subject to the margins of error inherent in statistics. This report has been drawn up in compliance with the international standard ISO 20252 "Market research, social studies and opinion".

2 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interest regarding the Interest for the presidential election coming presidential election? (Note from 0 to 10)

No interest at all Little interest Average interest Sufficient interest Lot of interest (0 à 1) (2 à 3) (4 à 6) (7 à 8) (9 à 10)

2% 3% 13% 25% 57% Average score 8,2

Not interested Quiet interested Interested 5% 13% 82%

3 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interest regarding the Interest for the presidential election coming presidential election? (Note from 0 to 10)

81 80 81 79 80 79 82 75 Interested 74 71 71 74

Quite 20 20 21 21 19 14 15 14 15 14 15 13 interested Not 8 8 7 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 interested Jan. March 2016 May 2016 Sept. 2016 Nov. Dec. 2016 Jan. 2017 Feb 2017 1-5 Mar 14-15 Mar 31 March - 16-17 2016 2016 2017 2017 2 April 2017 April

4 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interest regarding the Interest for the presidential election coming presidential election? (Note from 0 to 10)

Average score of interest

8,1 8,1 8,1 8,2 7,7 7,6 7,4 7,4 7,6 8,0 8,0 8,0

Jan. March May Sept. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2017 Feb 2017 1-5 March 14-15 31 March - 16-17 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 March 2 April April 2017 2017

5 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 Question: The first round of the next presidential election will take place on FRENCH ELECTION April 23, 2017. Could you give a score of 0 to 10 on your intention to vote Participation index in the first round of this presidential election?

SYMPATHIZERS 82% 81% 76% 76% 77% 78% 81% 68% 70% 73% 71% 72% 55% PARTICIPATION 72% +6 ST EXG ST ST Aucun Evolution GAUCHE DROITE parti 16-17 April vs 31 March-2 April

Note: 72% of French people intend to vote in the first round of the Presidential Election, 76% of PS sympathizers, 78% of LR sympathizers, 81% of FN sympathizers, etc. 6 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION Question: The first round of the next presidential election will take place on April 23, 2017. Could you give a score of 0 to 10 on your intention to vote Participation index- gender, age, in the first round of this presidential election? interviewee’s occupation

GENDER AGE 73% 71% 65% 72% 81% LESS THAN 35 35 TO 64 65 + PARTICIPATION

72% INTERVIEWEE’S OCCUPATION +6 Evolution 16-17 April 73% 71% 69% 67% 80% vs 31 March-2 April SeniorCadre supérieurExecutive Intermediate Employee Worker Retired profession

7 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION Question : If the first round of the presidential election was held next Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If Voting intention 1st Round the choice is between the following candidates…? Base : Certain to vote, stated intention

Evolution -0,5 +0,5 +4 -2 -2 (=) +2 (=) -2,5 (=) +0,5 16-17 April vs 31 March-2 April 23 22,5 19 19,5

8 4 0,5 1,5 1 <0,5 1

Nicolas Nathalie Philippe Jean-Luc Benoît Emmanuel Jean François Marine Jacques François Dupont- Arthaud Poutou Mélenchon Hamon Macron Lassalle Fillon Le Pen Cheminade Asselineau Aignan

People certain to vote who have not expressed an 8 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 intention to vote: 4% FRECNH ELECTION Question : Is your voting choice definite or could you still change your mind ? Likelihood to change mind Base : Certain to go vote According to voting intention

« DEFINITE CHOICE » EVOLUTION% Definite Can still change

64 72 Nathalie Arthaud 65 35 72% 50 53 59 59 Philippe Poutou 46 54 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 70 30 Definite 7-12 Feb. 1-5 14-15 25-27 31 16-17 Benoît Hamon 61 39 2017 March March March March- April 2017 2017 2 April 2017 Emmanuel Macron 74 26 2017 Jean Lassalle 36 64 28% François Fillon 81 19 Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 46 54 Marine Le Pen Can still change 84 16 9 François Asselineau 73 27 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION nd Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Voting intention 2 Round Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If Hypothesis E. Macron versus M. Le Pen the choice is between the following candidates?

Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention REPORTED VOICE

Voting intention Evolution Not 31 March-2 Avril Total vs 14-15 March 1st round decided -2 +2 

Would vote for 61% 100% J-L. Mélenchon 48% 9% 43%

Would vote for 39% 100% Benoît Hamon 71% 3% 26%

Would vote for 100% François Fillon 37% 32% 31%

Would vote for 100% Emmanuel Marine N. Dupont-Aignan 31% 42% 27% Macron Le Pen

10 28 % of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention ©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION nd Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Voting intention 2 Round Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If Hypothesis E. Macron versus F. Fillon the choice is between the following candidates?

Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention REPORTED VOICE

Voting intention Not Total 1st round decided  Evolution (=) (=) 16-17 April vs 12-13 April Would vote for 52% 3% 45% 100% 64% J-L. Mélenchon 36% Would vote for 71% 1% 28% 100% Benoît Hamon Would vote for 35% 33% 32% 100% Emmanuel François N. Dupont-Aignan Macron Fillon Would vote for 23% 23% 54% 100% Marine Le Pen

11 28% of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention ©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION nd Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Voting intention 2 Round Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If Hypothesis F. Fillon versus M. Le Pen the choice is between the following candidates?

Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention REPORTED VOICE

Voting intention Not Total 1st round decided Evolution -1 +1  16-17 April vs 12-13 April 55% Would vote for 45% Jean-Luc 14% 15% 71% 100% Mélenchon Would vote for 22% 7% 71% 100% Benoît Hamon Would vote for 40% 8% 52% 100% Emmanuel Macron François Marine Fillon Le Pen Would vote for 31% 43% 26% 100% N. Dupont-Aignan

12 36% of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention ©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION nd Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Voting intention 2 Round Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If Hypothesis J-L Mélenchon versus E. Macron the choice is between the following candidates?

Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention REPORTED VOICE

Voting intention Not Total 1st round decided Evolution -2 +2  16-17 April vs 12-13 April Would vote for 57% 56% 34% 10% 100% 43% Benoît Hamon Would vote for 5% 49% 46% 100% François Fillon Would vote for 19% 40% 41% 100% N. Dupont-Aignan Jean-Luc Emmanuel Would vote for 24% 22% 54% 100% Mélenchon Macron Marine Le Pen

13 26% of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention ©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION nd Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Voting intention 2 Round Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If Hypothesis J-L Mélenchon versus M. Le Pen the choice is between the following candidates?

Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention REPORTED VOICE

Voting intention Not Total 1st round decided Evolution  16-17 April vs -3 +3 12-13 April Would vote for 57% 84% 1% 15% 100% 43% Benoît Hamon Would vote for 55% 7% 38% 100% Emmanuel Macron Would vote for 11% 38% 51% 100% François Fillon Jean-Luc Marine Mélenchon Le Pen Would vote for 20% 51% 29% 100% N. Dupont-Aignan

14 24% of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention ©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION nd Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Voting intention 2 Round Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If Hypothesis J-L Mélenchon versus F. Fillon the choice is between the following candidates?

Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention REPORTED VOICE

Voting intention Not Total 1st round decided Evolution  16-17 April vs -2 +2 12-13 April Would vote for 58% 82% 3% 15% 100% 42% Benoît Hamon Would vote for 45% 24% 31% 100% Emmanuel Macron Would vote for 24% 39% 37% 100% N. Dupont-Aignan Jean-Luc François Mélenchon Fillon Would vote for 28% 24% 48% 100% Marine Le Pen

15 24% of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention ©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017