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Resilience Analysis in the Target Areas of “Carbon Sequestration Through Climate Investment in Forests and Rangelands (Cs-For)” Project in the Rima Ii

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Resilience Analysis in the Target Areas of “Carbon Sequestration Through Climate Investment in Forests and Rangelands (Cs-For)” Project in the Rima Ii AnalysIng Resilience for better targeting and action and targeting better Resiliencefor AnalysIng “CARBON SEQUESTRATION THROUGH THROUGH “CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN FORESTS AND RANGELANDS RANGELANDS AND FORESTS IN (CS-FOR)” PROJECT IN THE IN PROJECT (CS-FOR)” IN THE TARGET AREAS OF AREAS OF TARGET THE IN RESILIENCE ANALYSIS ANALYSIS RESILIENCE CLIMATE INVESTMENT CLIMATE FAO resilience RESILIENCE INDEX MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS II y RIMA II analysis report No. 18 AnalysIng Resilience for better targeting and action FAO resilience analysis report No. 18 RESILIENCE ANALYSIS IN THE TARGET AREAS OF “CARBON SEQUESTRATION THROUGH CLIMATE INVESTMENT IN FORESTS AND RANGELANDS (CS-FOR)” PROJECT IN THE r e p y u r b g l y i K z c Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2019 Required citation: FAO. 2019. Resilience Analysis in the target areas of “Carbon Sequestration through Climate Investment in Forests and Rangelands (CS-FOR)” project in the Kyrgyz Republic. Rome. 42 pp. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. © FAO, 2019 Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode/legalcode). Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited. In any use of this work, there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services. The use of the FAO logo is not permitted. If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons licence. If a translation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation. The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition.” Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein. The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization http://www.wipo.int/amc/en/ mediation/rules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL). Third-party materials. 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Cover photo: © FAO / Vyacheslav Oseledko iii CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................... v ACRONYMS .................................................................... vi OBJECTIVE OF THE ANALYSIS .................................................... vii 1 KEY MESSAGES .............................................................. 1 2 MAIN FINDINGS, POLICY AND PROGRAMMING IMPLICATIONS ...................... 3 2.1 INTERVENTION AND CONTROL GROUP ...................................... 3 2.2 GEOGRAPHICAL PROFILES ................................................. 6 3 METHODOLOGY AND COVERAGE ................................................ 11 4 NEXT STEPS ................................................................ 13 4.1 FROM BASELINE TO MIDLINE ............................................. 14 REFERENCES ................................................................. 15 ANNEX I ...................................................................... 17 A1.1 RIMA CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ......................................... 17 A1.2 ESTIMATION OF THE RESILIENCE CAPACITY INDEX .......................... 17 A1.3 VARIABLES DESCRIPTION ................................................ 19 ANNEX II ...................................................................... 23 A2.1 T-TEST – TREATED/CONTROL ............................................. 23 A2.2 REGRESSION RESULTS .................................................. 25 ANNEX III ...................................................................... 28 A3.1 TABLES AND STATISTICS ................................................. 28 iv FIGURES 1 RCI vs RSM over intervention/control groups ......................................4 2 Climatic sensitivity - Intervention vs control group ..................................5 3 Average resilience index at district level (taking into account intervention/control groups) . 6 4 RSM by district (intervention/control) .............................................6 5 District part of the livelihood survey .............................................12 A1 Resilience conceptual framework ...............................................18 A2 Path diagram of MIMIC model for the resilience to climate change ...................19 A3 Variables’ weight in each pillars, by Intervention/Control (%) ........................28 A4 Variable’s weight with respect to the final RCI at intervention/control group (%). 29 A5 Variables’ weight with respect to the final RCI at district level ........................30 TABLES A1 Variables in the pillars’ construction .............................................19 A2 Climate sensitivity aggregate index .............................................21 A3 T-test for the differences in intervention/control group .............................23 A4 Climate sensitivity analysis over the pillars’ variables ..............................24 A5 RCI/Climate sensitivity analysis on climate related strategies .......................25 A6 Climate sensitivity analysis on climate related strategies - Districts level ..............26 A7 Resilience analysis on climate related strategies - Districts level .....................27 A8 Variables’ statistics ...........................................................31 A9 Perception of climate change (self-reported, %) ...................................32 A10 Households’ strategies as a results of the perceived climate change (%). 32 v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report has been prepared by the Resilience Analysis and Policies (RAP) team of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ (FAO), Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA). Special thanks go to Stefania Di Giuseppe, Rebecca Pietrelli, Genevieve Theodorakis, Doussou Traore, Marco d’Errico and Luca Russo for their contributions of technical information, and to Giorgia Wizemann and Tomaso Lezzi for the formatting and layout of the publication. The team would like to acknowledge the Investment Centre Division, Europe, Central Asia, Near East, North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean Service (DPIC), in the persons of Tommaso Alacevich and Jacopo Monzini for the precious collaboration and their useful information and insights. vi ACRONYMS ABS Access to basic services AC Adaptive Capacity ATM Automated Teller Machine AST Assets CS-FOR Carbon Sequestration through Climate Investment in Forests and Rangelands DPIC Investment Centre Division, Europe, Central Asia, Near East, North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean Service ECZ Elevation Coastal Zones FA Factor Analysis FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FIDH International Federation for Human Rights HQ Headquarters MIMIC Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development RAP Resilience and Policies team RCI Resilience Capacity index RIMA Resilience Index Measurement Analysis RM-TWG Resilience Measurement Technical Working Group RSM Resilience structure matrix SAEFP State Agency for Environment and Forestry SSN Social safety nets TLU Tropical Livestock Unit UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID United States Agency for International Development USD United States dollars vii OBJECTIVE OF THE ANALYSIS The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in Central Asia. Situated on the north-east, and located between the Tien Shan and the Pamir
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