The Impact Factor Fallacy
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Assessing School and Teacher Effectiveness Using HLM and TIMSS Data from British Columbia and Ontario
Avoiding Ecological Fallacy: Assessing School and Teacher Effectiveness Using HLM and TIMSS Data from British Columbia and Ontario By Yichun Wei B. Eng. University of Hunan M. Sc. University of Hunan A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies of The University of Manitoba in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Faculty of Education University of Manitoba Winnipeg, MB. Canada Copyright © 2012 by Yichun Wei ABSTRACT There are two serious methodological problems in the research literature on school effectiveness, the ecological problem in the analysis of aggregate data and the problem of not controlling for important confounding variables. This dissertation corrects these errors by using multilevel modeling procedures, specifically Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM), and the Canadian Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2007 data, to evaluate the effect of school variables on the students’ academic achievement when a number of theoretically-relevant student variables have been controlled. In this study, I demonstrate that an aggregate analysis gives the most biased results of the schools’ impact on the students’ academic achievement. I also show that a disaggretate analysis gives better results, but HLM gives the most accurate estimates using this nested data set. Using HLM, I show that the physical resources of schools, which have been evaluated by school principals and classroom teachers, actually have no positive impact on the students’ academic achievement. The results imply that the physical resources are important, but an excessive improvement in the physical conditions of schools is unlikely to improve the students’ achievement. Most of the findings in this study are consistent with the best research literature. -
There Is No Fallacy of Arguing from Authority
There is no Fallacy ofArguing from Authority EDWIN COLEMAN University ofMelbourne Keywords: fallacy, argument, authority, speech act. Abstract: I argue that there is no fallacy of argument from authority. I first show the weakness of the case for there being such a fallacy: text-book presentations are confused, alleged examples are not genuinely exemplary, reasons given for its alleged fallaciousness are not convincing. Then I analyse arguing from authority as a complex speech act. R~iecting the popular but unjustified category of the "part-time fallacy", I show that bad arguments which appeal to authority are defective through breach of some felicity condition on argument as a speech act, not through employing a bad principle of inference. 1. Introduction/Summary There's never been a satisfactory theory of fallacy, as Hamblin pointed out in his book of 1970, in what is still the least unsatisfactory discussion. Things have not much improved in the last 25 years, despite fallacies getting more attention as interest in informal logic has grown. We still lack good answers to simple questions like what is a fallacy?, what fallacies are there? and how should we classifY fallacies? The idea that argument from authority (argumentum ad verecundiam) is a fallacy, is well-established in logical tradition. I argue that it is no such thing. The second main part of the paper is negative: I show the weakness of the case made in the literature for there being such a fallacy as argument from authority. First, text-book presentation of the fallacy is confused, second, the examples given are not genuinely exemplary and third, reasons given for its alleged fallaciousness are not convincing. -
Physics 496 Introduction to Research Lecture 2.0: Tools for the Scientific Skeptic (Lance Cooper, Laura Greene, Tony Liss, Doug Beck)
PHYS 496, Spring 2014 02/14/2014 D.H. Beck Physics 496 Introduction to Research Lecture 2.0: Tools for the Scientific Skeptic (Lance Cooper, Laura Greene, Tony Liss, Doug Beck) Critical Evaluation Scientific papers and research presentations, when well done, are very convincing. How do you know if they are correct? How do you know if your own research is correct? Answer: Apply logic. Critique the arguments made to arrive at the conclusions. “Science is simply common-sense at its best; that is, rigidly accurate in observation and merciless to fallacy in logic.“ (The Crayfish, 1880). “Darwin’s Bulldog” Thomas Henry Huxley, biologist 1825-1895 Copyright © 2014 Board of Directors of the University of Illinois 1 PHYS 496, Spring 2014 02/14/2014 D.H. Beck Aside: Oxford Evolution Debate Held at the Oxford University Museum seven months after the 1859 publication of The Origin of Species. Bishop Samuel Wilberforce to Huxley: “On which side do you claim your descent from a monkey, your grandmother or your grandfather?” Huxley: “I would not be ashamed to be descended from a monkey. But I would be ashamed to be descended from a man who uses his great gifts to obscure the truth!” The Scientific Method 1. Observe and describe a phenomenon or group of phenomena. 2. Formulate an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation. 3. Use the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations. 4. Perform experimental tests of the predictions. -
The Argument Form “Appeal to Galileo”: a Critical Appreciation of Doury's Account
The Argument Form “Appeal to Galileo”: A Critical Appreciation of Doury’s Account MAURICE A. FINOCCHIARO Department of Philosophy University of Nevada, Las Vegas Las Vegas, NV 89154-5028 USA [email protected] Abstract: Following a linguistic- Résumé: En poursuivant une ap- descriptivist approach, Marianne proche linguistique-descriptiviste, Doury has studied debates about Marianne Doury a étudié les débats “parasciences” (e.g. astrology), dis- sur les «parasciences » (par exem- covering that “parascientists” fre- ple, l'astrologie), et a découvert que quently argue by “appeal to Galileo” les «parasavants» raisonnent souvent (i.e., defend their views by compar- en faisant un «appel à Galilée" (c.-à- ing themselves to Galileo and their d. ils défendent leurs points de vue opponents to the Inquisition); oppo- en se comparant à Galileo et en nents object by criticizing the analo- comparant leurs adversaires aux gy, charging fallacy, and appealing juges de l’Inquisition). Les adver- to counter-examples. I argue that saires des parasavant critiquent Galilean appeals are much more l'analogie en la qualifiant de soph- widely used, by creationists, global- isme, et en construisant des contre- warming skeptics, advocates of “set- exemples. Je soutiens que les appels tled science”, great scientists, and à Galilée sont beaucoup plus large- great philosophers. Moreover, sever- ment utilisés, par des créationnistes, al subtypes should be distinguished; des sceptiques du réchauffement critiques questioning the analogy are planétaire, des défenseurs de la «sci- proper; fallacy charges are problem- ence établie», des grands scien- atic; and appeals to counter- tifiques, et des grands philosophes. examples are really indirect critiques En outre, on doit distinguer plusieurs of the analogy. -
35. Logic: Common Fallacies Steve Miller Kennesaw State University, [email protected]
Kennesaw State University DigitalCommons@Kennesaw State University Sexy Technical Communications Open Educational Resources 3-1-2016 35. Logic: Common Fallacies Steve Miller Kennesaw State University, [email protected] Cherie Miller Kennesaw State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/oertechcomm Part of the Technical and Professional Writing Commons Recommended Citation Miller, Steve and Miller, Cherie, "35. Logic: Common Fallacies" (2016). Sexy Technical Communications. 35. http://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/oertechcomm/35 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Open Educational Resources at DigitalCommons@Kennesaw State University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Sexy Technical Communications by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@Kennesaw State University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Logic: Common Fallacies Steve and Cherie Miller Sexy Technical Communication Home Logic and Logical Fallacies Taken with kind permission from the book Why Brilliant People Believe Nonsense by J. Steve Miller and Cherie K. Miller Brilliant People Believe Nonsense [because]... They Fall for Common Fallacies The dull mind, once arriving at an inference that flatters the desire, is rarely able to retain the impression that the notion from which the inference started was purely problematic. ― George Eliot, in Silas Marner In the last chapter we discussed passages where bright individuals with PhDs violated common fallacies. Even the brightest among us fall for them. As a result, we should be ever vigilant to keep our critical guard up, looking for fallacious reasoning in lectures, reading, viewing, and especially in our own writing. None of us are immune to falling for fallacies. -
What Can Ecological Studies Tell Us About Death? Yehuda Neumark
Neumark Israel Journal of Health Policy Research (2017) 6:52 DOI 10.1186/s13584-017-0176-x COMMENTARY Open Access What can ecological studies tell us about death? Yehuda Neumark Abstract: Using an ecological study design, Gordon et al. (Isr J Health Policy Res 6:39, 2017) demonstrate variations in mortality patterns across districts and sub-districts of Israel during 2008–2013. Unlike other epidemiological study designs, the units of analysis in ecological studies are groups of people, often defined geographically, and the exposures and outcomes are aggregated, and often known only at the population-level. The ecologic study has several appealing characteristics (suchasrelianceonpublic-domain anonymous data) alongside a number of important potential limitations including the often mentioned ‘ecological fallacy’.Advantagesand disadvantages of the ecological design are described briefly below. Keywords: Ecological fallacy, Ecological studies, Epidemiology, Mortality, Study design Main text In this journal, Gordon et al. [4] employ an ecological "The aim of epidemiology is to decipher nature with re- design to demonstrate variations in mortality patterns spect to human health and disease, and no one should across districts and sub-districts of Israel during the underestimate the complexities of epidemiological research" five-year period of 2008–2013. Standardized mortality [1]. To achieve this lofty and complex goal, the epide- ratios (SMRs) reveal a 25% excess of kidney disease re- miologic investigative toolbox contains various study lated deaths in the Haifa district, for example, while the methodologies including individual-based experimental risk of death from influenza/pneumonia is 25% lower designs (e.g., randomized controlled trial), individual- there than the national average. -
A Statistical Guide for the Ethically Perplexed Preamble Introduction
A Statistical Guide for the Ethically Perplexed Lawrence Hubert and Howard Wainer Preamble The meaning of \ethical" adopted here is one of being in accordance with the accepted rules or standards for right conduct that govern the practice of some profession. The profes- sions we have in mind are statistics and the behavioral sciences, and the standards for ethical practice are what we try to instill in our students through the methodology courses we offer, with particular emphasis on the graduate statistics sequence generally required for all the behavioral sciences. Our hope is that the principal general education payoff for competent statistics instruction is an increase in people's ability to be critical and ethical consumers and producers of the statistical reasoning and analyses faced in various applied contexts over the course of their careers. Introduction Generations of graduate students in the behavioral and social sciences have completed mandatory year-long course sequences in statistics, sometimes with difficulty and possibly with less than positive regard for the content and how it was taught. Prior to the 1960's, such a sequence usually emphasized a cookbook approach where formulas were applied un- thinkingly using mechanically operated calculators. The instructional method could be best characterized as \plug and chug," where there was no need to worry about the meaning of what one was doing, only that the numbers could be put in and an answer generated. This process would hopefully lead to numbers that could then be looked up in tables; in turn, p-values were sought that were less than the magical .05, giving some hope of getting an attendant paper published. -
Critical Thinking, Common Fallacies, and Leadership
Critical Thinking, Common Fallacies, and Leadership Judge Hal Campbell, Ph.D. One of my all-time favorite movies was Tom Clancy’s, Hunt for Red October. Within that movie there is a scene that I found fascinating within my capacity as a university professor teaching logic and statistics. The scene involves a meeting of top level decision makers who are gathered around a table in the basement of the Whitehouse, and after a briefing given by Jack Ryan pertaining to the design, construction, and launch of a new Russian submarine, the National Security Advisor who is chairing the meeting asks Admiral Greer (the character played by James Earl Jones) what conclusions he has made. The Admiral responded, “Sir, the data support no conclusions as of yet”. I thought this statement was one of the more profound expressions that I had ever heard in any movie. What an astonishing and refreshing response I thought to myself. He was exactly right that it was premature, given the limited information available at the time, to base any decision about the Russian’s intent, mission, or objectives. The data simply didn’t support any conclusion, yet there at the conference table, sat a gaggle of top-level executives who were actively engage in supposition and speculation resulting in the fabrication all sorts of boogie-men, end of day’s scenarios, and rationale for a first strike option that needed to be recommended to the President. As I have pointed out in previous articles, critical thinking, logic, and reasoning are not taught as a separate academic discipline within our K-12 school system. -
Checking Your Arguments: 2
Checking Your Arguments: 2 The kind of logic that is used in constructing an essay is not dependent on specialized learning or some esoteric technique. It is the kind of logic that normal people use every day in making decisions and in trying to persuade other people to share their opinions. But every word of a written argument is generally scrutinized very carefully by its readers, so special care is needed to keep logical fallacies from ruining the argument. By getting into the habit of searching the first draft of your papers for logical fallacies, you can not only improve your writing but also refine the logic that you use in everyday discussions and decisions. Here is a check-list of some of the logical "fallacies" (or mistakes) that even good writers may easily fall into. The use of logical fallacies often results in faulty conclusions; it can lead people into terrible difficulties, not just in writing, but in making real-life decisions. A fallacy may, however, appear in an argument for a perfectly correct idea; it may, in that case, discredit even that correct idea--but it will certainly discredit the author. Suppose, for instance, that someone argued that roses, like human beings, are living things, that there is a similarity between plants and people, and that, therefore, because all plants eventually die, we can expect that all people will eventually die, too. Now, it's perfectly true that all people will die; the problem is that the argument that is used to prove this (an argument by analogy) is so fallacious that it could never, in itself, establish the fact of human mortality. -
Common Reasoning Mistakes
Common Fallacies (mistakes of reasoning) The fallacy fallacy • There is danger even in the study of fallacies. This study involves identifying certain patterns of reasoning as fallacies. Each pattern has a name. E.g. an argument that attacks a person is ad hominem. But ad hominem arguments are not always fallacies! • Rejecting an argument as a (named) fallacy, based on its pattern alone, is a fallacy that we might call the fallacy fallacy. • In general, an ad hominem is only legitimate when attacking an argument from authority. • But not all such attacks on authority are legitimate. They can be made on irrelevant grounds. Irrelevant ad hominem E.g. Einstein’s physics was attacked on the basis of Einstein being Jewish. Thomas Powers, Heisenberg’s War, p. 41 Fallacy? • Alliance leader Stockwell Day argues that Canada should increase its military expenditure now, by at least 20%, in order to continue to meet our NATO obligations five years from now. But Day is a fundamentalist who thinks the universe is only 6,000 years old! Clearly his view can be dismissed. • Probably a fallacy. If Day is presenting evidence (e.g. based on future NATO obligations) then an ad hominem response is automatically fallacious. Even if Day is arguing from authority, then his (religion based) views about the age of the earth are likely not relevant to his views about military needs. • Mr. Wilson, in his letter of January 16, argues that it would be counter-productive to yield to the demands of the hostage takers. He does not, I take it, have a son or daughter among the hostages. -
Logic and the Common Law Trial
University of Kentucky UKnowledge Law Faculty Scholarly Articles Law Faculty Publications Summer 1994 Logic and the Common Law Trial Richard H. Underwood University of Kentucky College of Law, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/law_facpub Part of the Legal Profession Commons, and the Litigation Commons Right click to open a feedback form in a new tab to let us know how this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Richard H. Underwood, Logic and the Common Law Trial, 18 Am. J. Trial Advoc. 151 (1994). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Faculty Publications at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in Law Faculty Scholarly Articles by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Logic and the Common Law Trial Notes/Citation Information American Journal of Trial Advocacy, Vol. 18, No. 1 (Summer 1994), pp. 151-199 This article is available at UKnowledge: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/law_facpub/261 Logic and the Common Law Trial Richard H. Underwoodt The only certain ground for discovering truth is the faculty of discriminat- ing false from true.... Otherwise, I can assure you, you will be led by the nose by anyone who chooses to do it, and you will run after anything they hold out to you, as cattle do after a green bough.' I. Introduction Throughout history, right up to the present day, there have been persistent, if somewhat contradictory, attempts by members of the legal guild to attribute to the practice of law some of the characteristics of religion and science.' Fortunately, references to the trial lawyer as "the priest in the [T]emple of [J]ustice" 3 have pretty much disappeared from the literature. -
The Science of Software Engineering the Science of Software Engineering
The Science of Software Engineering Marvin Zelkowitz Department of Computer Science University of Maryland College Park, Maryland [email protected] ESEM - 2009 1 ESEM – October 2009 A Need for a The Science of Software Engineering Marvin Zelkowitz Department of Computer Science University of Maryland College Park, Maryland [email protected] ESEM - 2009 2 ESEM – October 2009 1 Organization of talk Some personal comments on how I arrived at the theme of this talk What are the issues in developing a science of software engineering? What’s next? ESEM – October 2009 3 So what have I been doing for the past 40 years? Most of my professional life has been at the University of Maryland, teaching and doing research in the general area of software engineering. But those who know me, know that I have three other areas of great interest. ESEM – October 2009 4 2 One is attending science fiction conventions ESEM – October 2009 5 A second is my interest in model railroading Layout obviously unfinished. ESEM – October 2009 6 3 A third is that I consider myself a professional skeptic ESEM – October 2009 7 A third is that I consider myself a professional skeptic I belong to an organization of skeptics. Ha! Ha! ESEM – October 2009 8 4 A third is that I consider myself a professional skeptic That’s No! not true! You can’t do that! It’s all bogus! ESEM – October 2009 9 A third is that I consider myself a professional skeptic What does this really mean? And how does this relate to software engineering? This is the general theme of the rest of this talk.