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Lithium: Deve Lo PLS.asx Buy Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS) 30 Jun 2016 Share Price $0.615 Valuation $0.77 PILBARA MINERALS LTD (PLS) Price Target (12 month) $0.92 Big (and getting bigger) lithium project Brief Business Description: Very large spodumene development in WA Pilbara Minerals is developing the very large Pilgangoora spodumene (Lithium ore) deposit in northern WA. The Company has a reserve of 29.5Mt Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion Very large deposit that looks highly economic. at 1.31% Li2O. The Company plans to begin construction later this year. We expect spodumene sales ~330ktpa, which in LCE equivalent terms is ~44ktpa (~22% of current demand). Based on consensus demand forecasts, the Chairman & MD market is not large enough to take all supply of potential lithium mines. Tony Kiernan (Non-exec Chair.) Hence it is important to be at an advanced stage, be technically robust, and Ken Brinsden (MD) have long mine life (for off-take agreements). PLS fits this profile well. If Major Shareholders electric vehicle take-up is stronger than expected, demand could be far stronger than anticipated. The large orebody at Pilgangoora suggest PLS can quickly expand into such a growing market. Company Address 130 Stirling Hwy, Economics are compelling. DFS due in August. North Fremantle, WA, 6159 The PFS (completed by Como Engineering) estimates capex of A$184m for Issued Capital 1148.1m a 2Mtpa processing plant generating 330ktpa of chemical grade spodumene - fully diluted 1244.5m Market Cap A$706.1m and 274klbpa of tantalite. The PFS estimates life-of-mine EBITDA of A$103m - fully diluted A$765.4m pa with higher profits in early years given the lower strip ratio. We use higher Cash (30 Jun 16e) A$100.0m spodumene prices and expect life-of-mine EBITDA of ~$156m pa, despite Debt (30 Jun 16e) A$0.0m EV A$606.1m assuming less tantalite than the PFS. The PFS assumes a 15 year mine life, EV/Resource Spod. A$36.1/t but that should be increased (exploration target implies >70years). EV/Reserve Spod. A$94.1/t Tantalite a good credit, but not important to the economics Prelim. (A$m) FY19e FY20e FY21e Prod (Li Spod. eq) 0.3 0.3 0.3 The tantalite grade is only 128ppm, the Company assumes recoveries of Op Cash Flw 137.1 126.6 99.3 47%. We are more conservative and assume there are modest tantalite Norm NPAT 128.5 100.5 73.4 sales, partly because the mine is optimised for lithium, and hence tantalite CF/Share (cps) 10.5 8.1 5.9 EPS (cps) 14.0 10.6 7.6 sales could be volatile given the tantalite will not be evenly distributed with P/E 5.9 7.6 10.4 the lithium. Our estimates could be assumed to be a worst case result. Note, Mt Li2O Spod. in the PFS, tantalite sales reduce operating costs by ~A$65/t (US$40/t) or Resources (Li2O) 80.2 1.25% 16.8 Reserve (Li2O) 29.5 1.31% 6.4 ~A$22m (US$16m) pa. Given the strong selling prices for spodumene, the margins for PLS are significant even without the tantalite. We assume operating costs of ~$A360/t, in line with Company estimates excluding Pilbara Min Ltd tantalite credits. 1.00 35. Lithium: Developer 0.90 30. Off-take agreements 0.80 Historically the lithium market has been small, and concentrated amongst a 0.70 25. 0.60 20. few players. The additional supply that PLS is planning to bring to the market A$ 0.50 M is significant (~44ktpa LCE) and will need to find customers. The Company 0.40 15. 0.30 10. has no offtake agreement, but has MOUs with 8 potential customers and aims 0.20 5. have significant proportion signed around August. GAM has a first right of 0.10 0.00 . refusal for all spodumene and tantalum produced at Pilgangoora. The Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Company does not believe that the GAM right will be exercised and hence is Volume - RHS Source: IRESS PLS Shareprice - LHS Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS limited risk. We only note the right for the outside chance it becomes an issue. Initiate with Buy PLS is a very exciting and large project. The recent shareprice retracement Trent Barnett means it now trades at a large discount to our valuation. We assume a 20 Head of Research Ph: +61 8 9268 3052 year mine life, which is longer than the PFS, but lower than the inferred E: [email protected] resource, and lower than implied by the 130-150Mt resource exploration Hartleys has assisted in the completion of part of a capital raising in the past 12 months for Pilbara Mines target (upgrade due in July). We initiate with a Buy recommendation. On our Limited. estimates, which are more conservative on capex and tantalite sales, PLS trades on 4.6x ‘year one’ EBITDA. Note, on spot prices (we assume US$750/t), our multiple estimate falls to 4.0x ‘year one’ EBITDA. Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141Page St Georges 1 of 21 Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Further information concerning Hartleys’ regulatory disclosures can be found on Hartleys website www.hartleys.com.au Hartleys Limited Pilbara Minerals Ltd 30 June 2016 (PLS) Pilbara Min Ltd Share Price 30 June 2016 PLS $0.615 Buy Key Market Information Directors Company Information Share Price $0.615 Tony Kiernan (Non-exec Chair.) 130 Stirling Hwy, Market Capitalisation - ordinary A$765m Ken Brinsden (MD) North Fremantle, WA, 6159 Net cash A$100m Neil Biddle (Non-exec) Ph +61 8 9336 6267 Market Capitalisation - fully diluted A$765m Robert Adamson (Non-exec) Fax +61 8 9433 5121 EV A$665m John Young (Non-exec., Technical) Issued Capital 1148.1m Brian Lynn (CFO) www.pilbaraminerals.com.au #REF! Options 96.4 Top Shareholders Ordinary Ord Issued Capital (diluted for options) 1244.5m m sh. % Issued Capital (diluted inc. options and new capital) 1244.5m 1 12month price target $0.92 2 3 Reserves & Resources Mt Li % Ta2O5 P&L Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21 4 Pilgangoora M+I 35.7 1.31% n/a Net Revenue A$m 0.0 273.0 365.0 315.0 267.0 5 Pilgangoora Inf 44.5 1.21% n/a Total Costs A$m -2.4 -100.1 -136.8 -133.5 -130.4 6 Pilgangoora Total 80.2 1.25% n/a EBITDA A$m -2.4 172.9 228.2 181.5 136.6 7 - margin - 63% 63% 58% 51% 8 Pilgangoora Reserve 29.5 1.31% 134 Depreciation/Amort A$m -11.1 -18.0 -19.9 -19.9 -19.9 9 EBIT A$m -13.5 154.9 208.4 161.6 116.6 Global Total 80.2 1.25% n/a Net Interest A$m -2.7 -4.9 -2.8 -0.8 0.8 10 Global Reserve 29.5 1.31% 134 Pre-Tax Profit A$m -16.2 150.1 205.6 160.8 117.5 Production Summary Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Tax Expense A$m 0.0 -30.6 -77.1 -60.3 -44.1 Normalised NPAT A$m -16.2 119.4 128.5 100.5 73.4 Processed Mill Throughput Mt 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 Abnormal Items A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mined grade Li % 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Reported Profit A$m -16.2 119.4 128.5 100.5 73.4 Produced Spodumene - Technical Mt 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Minority A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Produced Spodumene - Battery Mt 0.251 0.335 0.335 0.335 Profit Attrib A$m -16.2 119.4 128.5 100.5 73.4 Produced Tantalite Mlb pa 0.064 0.086 0.086 0.086 Produced Spodumene - Battery Eq Mt 0.256 0.341 0.343 0.344 Balance Sheet Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21 LCE equiv (0.135x Spod) ktpa 34.6 46.1 46.2 46.4 Cash A$m 39.7 62.3 169.1 275.2 354.1 Mine Life yr 19.50 18.50 17.50 16.50 Other Current Assets A$m 0.2 33.8 45.2 39.0 33.1 Assumed Mining Inventory Mt 39.0 37.0 35.0 33.0 Total Current Assets A$m 39.9 96.2 214.2 314.2 387.2 Assumed Mining Inventory - Li grade % 1.34% 1.34% 1.34% 1.34% Property, Plant & Equip. A$m 140.9 173.9 154.1 134.2 114.3 Assumed Mining Inventory - Tant grade % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Exploration A$m 96.0 96.4 96.8 97.2 97.6 Capex -153.0 -51.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Investments/other A$m 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Costs Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Tot Non-Curr.
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