Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes Sep 03, 2018 By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena Guide: The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS. For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio. Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report. Summary Period: Monday August 27 to Friday August 31, 2018 Total Upgrades: 16 Total Downgrades: 24 Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 40.93%; Hold 43.41%; Sell 15.67% Securities analysts in Australia are still issuing more recommendation downgrades than upgrades, but at least the gap between the two is narrowing noticeably. In contrast to prior weeks, both tables for the week ending Friday, 31st August 2018, are populated by stocks receiving multiple switches in stockbroker ratings. FNArena counted 16 upgrades and 24 downgrades pulling the ratio for the four weeks of August just below 1:2. Receiving multiple upgrades were ambitious gold miner Northern Star Resources (2x) and Regis Resources (gold and nickel) and Sims Metal Management (scrap) with the latter two enjoying three upgrades post results releases. Only six of the 16 upgrades involves a Buy rating. On the flipside,FNArena nutritional supplements provider Blackmores was downgraded three times during the week, of which two downgrades moved to Sell, while fruit and veggies grower Costa Group was downgraded twice, both to Neutral/Hold; troubled contractor RCR Tomlinson was also downgraded twice (one Sell only), while fresh Sell ratings fell upon the likes of Bega Cheese, WiseTech Global, Qube Holdings, Virgin Australia and Reliance Worldwide. Consensus price targets experienced wild swings, as they tend to do in the midst of Consensus price targets experienced wild swings, as they tend to do in the midst of reporting season. The good news is that positive swings have been larger, on average, than the negative adjustments, although individual swings have been either cathartic or gut-wrenching at times. Topping the week's table for large positive revisions is Webjet, enjoying a gain of no less than 28%, followed by TPG Telecom, APN Outdoor, Blackmores, Smartgroup, others. On the flipside, Speedcast International (-26.6%) stands out, at arm's length followeed by Sims Metal Management, Orocobre, Caltex Australia, and Japara Healthcare. But if you thought those numbers were eye-catching, you aint seen nothin' yet until you glanced over the table for positive adjustments to earnings forecasts. African gold miner Perseus Mining tops the week's table with a gain in excess of 1000% (not a typo), beating Virgin Australia, Independence Group, Infigen Energy, and others. Among the stocks whose updates triggered significant reductions to forecasts, we find Speedcast International on top, followed by Air New Zealand, Galaxy Resources, G8 Education, and Atlas Arteria. Local reporting season is being replaced with large numbers of stocks going ex-dividend this week and month. Upgrade CABCHARGE AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((CAB)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 0/2/0 In the wake of the FY18 results UBS upgrades to Neutral from Sell. Target is raised to $2.20 from $2.15. The result itself is labeled "good" and "in line", albeit with the admission that it missed consensus by -6%. UBS analysts have lifted estimates and are anticipating a return to growth, forecasting a three-year EPS CAGR of 11%. ERM POWER LIMITED ((EPW)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/0 Morgans is pleased the sale process is underway for the US business. The broker assumes this will mean the distribution doubles from the minimum $0.07 per share. The US business produced an underlying loss of -$19.3m in FY18. The broker suggests cash that was being used to support the US operations can now be paid to shareholders. Operating earnings in FY18 increased 25% on a continuing business basis and beat forecasts. Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is raised $1.95 from $1.64. KELLY PARTNERS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((KPG)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0 FY18 net profitFNArena was slightly ahead of prospectus. The company has commenced FY19 with two network acquisitions and will focus on acquisitions through to FY23. The target is 5% organic revenue growth and 5% acquired revenue growth. Morgans believes the company's targets are supported by a relatively defensive earnings base and upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is reduced to $1.65 from $1.74. NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD ((NST)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi and Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/2 Citi and Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/2 The company has announced it will acquire the 250kozpa Pogo underground gold mine in Alaska from Sumitomo for US$260m/A$347m and Citi analysts are supportive of the deal, also because Northern Star is turning into a global gold producer, expanding in low-risk jurisdiction. Target price moves to $8.25 from $7.15. Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Northern Star will acquire the Pogo gold mine in Alaska from Sumitomo for US$260m in cash. The transaction will be funded from existing cash and and a $175m placement at $6.70 per share. Ord Minnett's believes the asset is genuinely worth more in the bidders hands, valuing Pogo at $576m, or 90cps. The broker's FY19 group operating earnings forecast has increased 26% and EBITDA per share is 21% higher. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Lighten and target rises to $7.50 from $6.40. NEWS CORPORATION ((NWS)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/1 News Corp has confirmed the potential IPO of Foxtel at its FY18 result. While Foxtel has experienced significant pressure, UBS forecasts FY19 to be an earnings trough. Further out, the broker envisages cost reduction opportunities arising from the Foxtel/Fox Sports merger that are not yet factored in. The broker remains cautious for the long term, nevertheless, as competition may limit Foxtel's returns. UBS upgrades News Corp to Neutral from Sell following the recent underperformance in the share price. Target is reduced to $20.10 from $20.75. PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((PTM)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 0/3/1 FY18 results were slightly better than Credit Suisse had expected due to some lower quality supporting items. Fund performance has deteriorated in recent months and this will impact Platinum's ability to earn performance fees in FY19, the broker observes. The broker has cut fee forecasts by -50%. The broker has made minor changes to EPS forecasts with FY19 unchanged and FY20 upgraded by 2%. Credit Suisse upgrades to Neutral from Underperform, believing the stock offers better value than sector peers. Target is raised to $5.25 from $5.15. REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS and Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Deutsche Bank and Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by FNArenaOrd Minnett .B/H/S: 1/5/2 FY18 results were slightly ahead of expectations. UBS attributes share price weakness to the FY19 guidance issued in the quarterly report in July. Higher cost estimates are based on pre-stripping activity at new satellite ore bodies that are to be opened up in FY19 as well as inflation in oil prices. The broker believes the higher costs have now been more than priced into the stock and value is starting to emerge. Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target rises to $4.20 from $3.18. FY18 results were ahead of estimates because of higher revenue and lower depreciation. Deutsche Bank upgrades to Hold from Sell on valuation. Target is $4.00. The broker notes for the next two years the cash balance will go backward because of capital expenditure and dividends. FY18 results were ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations, and 5% above consensus, driven by lower than expected operating costs. The company remains in a strong position to fund growth options but the key is the timing of that growth, in the broker's view. First gold from McPhillamys in FY20 may be optimistic, Ord Minnett believes, and assumes an investment decision by the end of FY19 and first gold in 2H21. The broker upgrades to Hold from Lighten and retains the $4.00 target price. SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL ((SFR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/4/3 Citi notes the FY18 performance missed market consensus by some -5%, even though it marked a big improvement on FY17. The broker has upgraded to Neutral from Sell inspired by "valuation". Price target gains 10c to $7.70. Equally noteworthy, the analysts retain the High Risk rating due to the short mine life at DeGrussa plus, the need remains for cash to be reinvested in a new project. SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((SGM)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS and Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/0 Sims reported in line with UBS. The stock has been hit hard in the past fortnight due to headwinds in the end markets of China and Turkey, the broker notes, being scrap tariffs in the former and economic collapse in the latter.