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Review of International Relations 2020

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Review of International Relations 2020 STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY: A NEW WAY OF U.S. DIPLOMACY TOWARDS THE QATAR CRISIS Andre Wirautomo Faculty of Social and Political Science, International Relations Postgraduate Program, University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia. Email: [email protected] ABSTRACT The way of U.S. diplomacy under President Trump administration declared a different approach from the Obama era. As President Trump extols unpredictability as a virtue, where Trump is more active through social media in conveying his views. That behavior considered a boomerang for U.S. diplomacy. Under President Trump’s administration, many of the state statement is contradicted with the White House. The uncertainty of U.S. diplomacy is seen when the United States involved in efforts to resolve the Qatar crisis. Qatar crisis is a diplomatic crisis that occurred between Qatar and the Gulf Arab countries which reached its peak in 2017. The United States has never interfered disputes between Qatar and the Gulf Arab countries that have occurred since 2002. However, the United States increased the tension of the Qatar crisis after several tweets from President Trump criticize Qatar funds terrorism in the Middle East. Simultaneously, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson corrected President Trump's statement by expressing the U.S. is supporting Qatar and trying to help by resolving the conflict as quickly as possible. Qatar is well known as the closest ally of the United States on combating terrorism in the Middle East. The disputes between Qatar and the Gulf Arab countries considered had an impact to be interrupting the movement of the United States on combating terrorism in the Middle East which directly affects several U.S. interests in the region. Differences between President Trump and the State Department do not send a clear nor unified message that is a problem for U.S. strategy towards the Qatar Crisis. It considered as proof of the uncertainty of U.S. diplomacy under President Trump administration. Through this analysis the article seeing the uncertainty of the U.S. diplomacy strategy in resolving the Qatar crisis. Kata kunci: Diplomatic strategy, President Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, Qatar Crisis, Qatar Blockade INTRODUCTION Qatar crisis is a dispute that occurred between Qatar and the Gulf Arab countries which is Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt. The crisis was caused by the severance of diplomatic relations by the Arab Gulf countries towards Qatar. Since the establishment of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)1 on 25 May 1981, the relationship between Qatar to these countries never been better. The beginning of the dispute between Qatar and the the Gulf Arab countries can be traced from the beginning of the 20th century. At that time, disputes were still centered on border disputes and involved countries in the Gulf region. The border conflict with the Gulf Arab countries reached its peak in the early ‘90s where countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia had a dispute with Qatar in determining territorial borders. The border dispute between Qatar and the UAE occurred over the region around Khawr al Udayd. The border dispute between Qatar and Bahrain occurred over the Hawar Islands region, the base of al Dibal and al Jaradah, as 16 Volume 2, Nomor 1, 2020 | RIR Review of International Relations 2020 well as the Zubarah region since 1936 and ended in 2001. Then border dispute occurred between Qatar and Saudi Arabia related to the existence of natural resources which for both countries is the main income for foreign exchange (Wardoyo, 2018). During the dispute, there were several mediation efforts undertaken by other countries as an effort to maintain stability of the Gulf region. However, mediation efforts have never been succeeded. The dispute reaches its peak on 5-6 June 2017 because the Arab Gulf countries repatriated Qatar ambassador and cut diplomatic ties (Al- Jazeera, 2017). Since diplomatic ties were severed by Gulf Arab countries towards Qatar, the tension on region getting higher especially with Saudi Arabia which already involved in the cold war with Qatar since 2002 because Saudi Arabia always interfering Qatar internal affairs (Roberts, 2017). Background why the tension between these Gulf Arab countries escalated again because the four countries have claimed that Qatar worked to support terrorism, maintained too close relations with Iran and meddled in the internal affairs of their countries. Qatar's national television, Al Jazeera is accused of being responsible for funding and supporting terrorist acts that have caused instability in the Middle East (Lake, 2017). Because of that Qatar considered have been violated the rules of GCC members who should fight all forms of terrorism acts, so the Gulf Arab countries demanded Qatar to shut down Al Jazeera and all affiliated stations. Moreover, Qatar must stop diplomatic relations with Iran and expel Iranian military representatives from Qatar and limit economic cooperation. Qatar responded by rejected the accusations leveled against it as baseless. Qatar’s Foreign Minister said claims made by the Gulf Arab countries are unreasonable because Qatar is one of the closest allies of the United States in fighting terrorism. Qatar is willing to negotiate with the boycotting countries and has welcomed calls from international leaders for dialogue (Khaleej Times, 2017). The Gulf Arab countries did not trust the refutation given by Qatar, on the contrary, they asked 13 demands that must be fulfilled by Qatar if it wants to normalize relations with the Gulf Arab countries. Kuwait was chosen by the Gulf Arab countries as a mediator (Fouad, 2017). Qatar has repeatedly rejected the list of demands leveled against it because unreasonable. The list of demands such as shut down the Turkish military base who under construction in Qatar and cease all military cooperation with Turkey, closing the Al Jazeera TV channel, downgrading ties with Iran, stop meddling in other nations affairs and RIR | Volume 2, Nomor 1, 2020 17 naturalizing citizens of the four blockading countries. This makes Kuwait mediation efforts to resolve the crisis of Qatar does not work at all (Feteha, Fiona & Tarek, 2017). The existence of the U.S. in the Middle East always influential in dealing with disputes in the region, the U.S. is expected to be a solution for resolving the Qatar Crisis. The U.S. has long had a close relationship with the Gulf Arab countries and respects their good relations by never interfering in disputes between the Gulf Arab countries. The dispute between the Gulf Arab countries always been family issues if sees from the U.S. point of view in which only related countries should solve the problem (Fouad, 2017). However, the relationship between the United States and Qatar had an awkward relationship due to the negative statement from President Donald Trump on social media. President Trump posted on Twitter that he supports the actions of Saudi Arabia blockade against Qatar and criticizes Qatar to stop funding of terrorism, this makes the tension between the United States and Qatar at the high risk. Since the blockade, Qatar had faced a food supply crisis, therefore the Qatari government is considering food aid from Iran and Turkey. It can happen because 40% of Qatar's food supply comes from Saudi Arabia. Realizing that food aid would bring close ties to Qatar and Iran, the White House immediately corrected President Trump's statement. As we know, the relationship between Iran and the U.S. has teetered for decades, therefore The U.S. does not like it if Iran had influence in the region. Shortly the White House released an official statement in responding to the Qatar crisis delivers by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the U.S. considers Qatar as a reliable ally in the fight against terrorism and wants to help end the Qatar Crisis. The U.S. expects the countries to immediately take steps to de-escalate the situation and put forth a good faith effort to resolve the grievances they have with each other (Pramuk, 2017). The official statement from the White House is very surprising because it contradicts President Trump's statement had previously delivered which would not side with Qatar. 18 Volume 2, Nomor 1, 2020 | RIR Review of International Relations 2020 There is one big question here about miscommunication and uncertainty of the U.S. diplomacy under President Trump administration implemented the diplomatic strategy. To understand what is causes of uncertainty in the U.S. diplomatic strategy under President Trump administration, this paper will analyze further through political and theoretical aspects. The discussion through these two aspects will be divided into two parts, the first part about the disharmony of relations under President Trump administration and the second part about the U.S. national interests to be achieved towards the Qatar crisis. RESEARCH METHODS In order to analyze the research problem, this paper uses congruence analysis within a qualitative method. This approach serves to find the causative mechanism between conditions and the results obtained through analysis of a series of events in a case. According to Alan Bryman, qualitative research is a research strategy that usually emphasizes words and not quantification in data collection and analysis. It is inductive, constructionist, and interpretative even though qualitative researchers do not always include these three elements (Bryman, 2004). This paper applying a qualitative study because it focuses on analyzing case studies using theory as an analytical framework to gain deeper knowledge about cases raised or debated. The case study can be interpreted as a method or strategy in research to uncover the specific case. This research uses a case study approach to focus attention on an object that is raised as a case study to be explored in depth so to be able to uncover the reality behind the phenomenon.
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