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December 2019 December 2019 Authors David Sandalow Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University Chair, ICEF Innova on Roadmap Project Julio Friedmann Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University Roger Aines Lawrence Livermore Na onal Laboratory Colin McCormick Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University Sean McCoy Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Calgary Joshuah Stolaroff Lawrence Livermore Na onal Laboratory Roger Aines and Joshuah Stolaroff contributed to the technical evalua ons but not the policy recommenda ons in this document. This roadmap was prepared to facilitate dialogue at the Sixth Innova on for Cool Earth Forum (Tokyo October 2019), for fi nal release at COP-25 (Madrid December 2019). We are deeply grateful to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organiza on (NEDO), Japan, for launching and suppor ng the ICEF Innova on Roadmap Project of which this is a part. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CHAPTER 1 1 INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 2 5 TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR LOW-CARBON INDUSTRIAL HEAT 5 Hydrogen 11 Biomass 16 Electrifi cation 21 Carbon Capture, Use and Storage CHAPTER 3 25 SECTORAL STUDIES 25 Cement 34 Iron and Steel 43 Chemicals CHAPTER 4 53 INNOVATION PATHWAYS CHAPTER 5 60 POLICY CHAPTER 6 66 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS December 2019 iii “1.0” analysis of the topic. A er providing general EXECUTIVE background, we discuss four technological approaches for providing low-carbon industrial heat: hydrogen, biomass, electrifi ca on and CCUS. We next examine SUMMARY decarbonizing heat produc on in the cement, iron and steel, and chemical industries. We then turn to policy op ons and an innova on agenda. We close with INTRODUCTION fi ndings and recommenda ons. Roughly 10% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from the produc on of heat for industrial processes—more than cars and planes TECHNOLOGY combined. Decarbonizing industrial heat produc on will be essen al to mee ng the Paris Agreement OPTIONS FOR LOW- goals. This topic has received far less a en on than decarboniza on of the power, transport or building CARBON INDUSTRIAL sectors. HEAT Most heavy industries require enormous quan es of heat. In many cases (including the cement, iron and Hydrogen. steel, and chemical industries), core processes involve Hydrogen combus on produces heat without carbon smel ng ore, breaking strong chemical bonds and/or dioxide (CO ) emissions. Hydrogen can subs tute for increasing the energy content of products. 2 coal, oil and gas as a fuel in some industrial processes, Today, almost all industrial heat is provided by reducing on-site emissions. However the produc on combus on of coal, oil or natural gas. These fossil fuels of hydrogen may involve substan al CO2 emissions, provide the high temperatures, con nuous opera on reducing or elimina ng the CO2 benefi ts of switching to and reliability many industrial processes require. Any hydrogen. Low-carbon produc on of hydrogen is thus op ons for decarbonizing industrial heat must match essen al for hydrogen to play a role in decarbonizing these capabili es or be part of a broader change in industrial heat. industrial processes. The most common hydrogen produc on process today Op ons to provide low-carbon heat for industry include is steam methane reforming (“gray” hydrogen), which hydrogen; biomass; electrifi ca on; carbon capture, use has signifi cant CO2 emissions. This can be substan ally and storage (CCUS); nuclear power; and concentrated decarbonized by adding CCUS (“blue” hydrogen), solar power (CSP). Few if any of these op ons are well reducing the carbon footprint by 55-90% or more. Low- developed in the context of industrial heat produc on. carbon hydrogen can also be made through electrolysis Several characteris cs of heavy industries create using zero-carbon power (“green” hydrogen). challenges in decarbonizing industrial heat produc on. Hydrogen could be used in many exis ng industrial First, industrial facili es are long-lived capital stock, hea ng systems with small changes, especially for las ng decades. Second, many industrial products are chemical synthesis. Issues such as sensors, controls, globally traded commodi es, subject to signifi cant loss corrosion and embri lement appear resolvable with of market share due to small increases in produc on minor costs and system modifi ca ons. Blue hydrogen costs. Third, many industrial facili es are far from would add modest costs to produc on of hydrogen renewable resources such as biomass or abundant solar and raw industrial products (20-50% increase). Green radia on, limi ng decarboniza on op ons. Fourth, many hydrogen would add substan al costs (200-400% governments view these industries as core na onal increase). As costs for fi rm renewable power decrease in assets, aff ec ng na onal security and the balance of the future, green hydrogen may become more a rac ve trade. and could take advantage of infrastructure originally This Roadmap explores the challenge of industrial installed to use blue hydrogen. heat decarboniza on. It is intended to be an ini al, iv Biomass. grid infrastructure upgrades are needed for large-scale Biomass provides considerable heat when burned. industrial electrifi ca on. Biomass can be converted to useful intermediates such as biomethane, biodiesel and bio-char, and provides Carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS). a carbon source and chemical reductant important in CCUS has an important role to play in reducing emissions some industries. Biomass has the poten al to deliver net from produc on of industrial heat. The building blocks low-carbon heat, since biomass can regrow, absorbing of CCUS include separa on of CO2 from combus on CO2 released during combus on. However land use products or hydrocarbon fuels, transporta on of CO2 changes related to biomass harves ng can reduce or to a suitable storage site (or loca on where it is used), eliminate these CO2 benefi ts. Transport and processing and geologic storage of CO2 or conversion of CO2 into a of biomass, as well as use of fer lizer, can also reduce range of products (e.g., carbonate minerals, chemicals the GHG benefi ts of biomass combus on. and fuels). CCUS is a rac ve because it usually does not require wholesale changes to the underlying industrial Approximately 200-500 EJ/y of sustainably produced processes. biomass can be available by 2050, similar to the projected global industrial energy demand of 330 EJ/y Experience with CCUS has grown considerably since in 2040. Nevertheless, scaling biomass suffi ciently to 1996, when the fi rst “purpose built” project began play a signifi cant role in industrial heat produc on storing CO2 captured from a gas processing pla orm would be a challenge. Biomass is more geographically deep under the North Sea. Today, CCUS projects diverse and expensive to collect and transport than are capturing CO2 that would have otherwise been fossil fuels. Woody biomass has about half the energy emi ed from power genera on, ethanol fermenta on, density and considerably lower bulk density (before gas separa on, iron and steelmaking, and hydrogen grinding) than coal. There are compe ng demands for produc on. CO2 capture for industrial processes— biomass in a low-carbon future, including as vehicle par cularly cement and steel—requires further fuel, dispatchable electricity and means of nega ve development through demonstra on projects at scale. emissions. Despite these challenges, biomass has the Infrastructure is needed to transport and geologically poten al to contribute to low-carbon heat for industry in store large volumes of CO2. some applica ons. Electrification. SECTORAL STUDIES A wide variety of exis ng and emerging electrical Cement. technologies can provide high-temperature industrial process heat, including resistance hea ng, microwaves, Cement provides the founda on for the built induc on and electric arc furnaces. Electrical hea ng has environment. Currently, over 4 Gt of cement are high controllability of temperature and dura on of heat produced annually, resul ng in more than 2 Gt per applica on, rela vely low maintenance, and inherently year of CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions from cement low emissions when powered by low-carbon electricity. manufacturing result not only from high-temperature However, reliable electricity in industrially relevant heat—nearly 1,500 °C in the cement kiln—but also from decomposi on of limestone (CaCO ). Many strategies quan es is not always available and in general is higher 3 cost than combus on-based technologies. for reducing these emissions have been considered, including fuel switching in conven onal cement making, The installa on of electric process heat systems o en fundamental changes in the composi on of cement and requires more changes to exis ng equipment than more effi cient use of concrete in design. switching to alternate combus on-based fuels (such as hydrogen or biomass). It may also require substan al Subs tu on of lower-carbon-intensity fuels for coal plant redesign. The use of electricity in industrial is already having a substan al impact in the cement process heat applica ons can place major burdens sector. This could be furthered by increased use on the electric grid. While some op miza on such of biomass-based wastes and sustainable biofuels. as par cipa on in demand-side management (DSM) However, given the limited supply of sustainable biomass systems is possible, this is limited in prac ce and major and compe on that may emerge for its diff erent v uses, this may not be cost-eff ec ve in large quan es. Hydrogen (blue or green) appears to be the most ready CCUS appears to be an important op on for reducing subs tute for current fossil fuel heat sources, in large emissions from cement produc on.
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