/ M
University of Zambia
Institute for Social Research
MAPS OF THE DISTRIBUTION
AND DENSITY OF AFRICAN
POPULATION IN ZAMBIA
by ! George Kay
1967 Communication Number Two
Price ios.od. net
MAPS OF THE DISTRIBUTION AND DENSITY OF AFRICAN
POPULATION IN ZAMBIA
George Kay Lecturer in Geography, Hull University
1
MAPS OF THE DISTRIBUTION AND DENSITY OF AFRICAN
POPULATION IN ZAMBIA
The 1963 Census of Africans
The first complete census of the African population of Zambia was conducted during May and June 1963. Prior to this event several dubious sources of data permitted rough estimates of the number and distribution of Africans, but the inadequacies and unreliability of these figures were such that many administrators and researchers viewed them with cynicism. This dearth of reliable data and reluctance to use available figures coupled with a lack of necessary accessories
(such as suitable base-maps) and of professional geographers and cartographers, led to an alarming disregard for population mapping until recent years. Such circumstances have occurred in most countries of tropical Africa, and they have been fully reported for the continent as a whole by Prothero (i960, 1961 and 1963) and for Zambia by Williams (1962) and Kay (1961 and 1962).
In the absence of published maps, local administrators personally acquired a working knowledge of population conditions in their particular areas, and many of them produced rudimentary sketch maps of local village distributions for their own use. Administration and development in the rural areas were largely dependent upon such stocks of local knowledge, and it is to the credit of field officers of the Provincial Administration and, in some areas, of the Department of Agriculture and of the Forestry Department that so much was achieved while so few basic data were generally available. Without the use of maps, the dissemination and compilation for wide areas of detailed information on population distribution and density is extraordinarily 2
difficult. Consequently, those responsible for national and regional
planning were largely dependent upon what they could glean from the banal generalities of official statistics, and not until the present
decade was any large-scale map of population distribution available to help in this task. From 1959 to 1961 the present author attempted to combine sources of local knowledge with official statistics to
produce population maps for each district of the Northern and Luapula
Provinces; the better results were published in 1962. At much the
same time, Williams made a gallant pioneer analysis of official
figures to produce a map of population distribution for the whole
country; this also was published in 1962. The following year both
exercises were rendered obsolete by the census, and this publication offers maps which may supersede that prepared by Williams. As yet,
however, it remains for someone in command of sufficient local know¬
ledge to provide up-to-date regional maps similar to the 1962 map of population distribution in the Luapula-Bangweulu region. This
is a worthwhile task which cannot easily be tackled from outside Zambia.
It is a task of the geographer to identify and describe spatial
differences, and the results of the 1963 census provide an unprecedented
opportunity to describe characteristics of population conditions in
Zambia. The census data are by no means perfect, and the Central Statistical Office (C.S.O.) readily acknowledges their limitations; in particular, the quality of the details collected on personal
characteristics is recognized to be poor. However, it is beyond question that they are more accurate in respect of population numbers and distribution than any previous source of information. The census, in fact, highlights appalling inaccuracies of earlier population
figures. It recorded a total population of 3»417,580 which is about 35 per cent in excess of the official estimate for 30th June 1963• This finding is so startling that there has been some reluctance to account for the difference between the two figures entirely in terms of understatement by the pre-census estimates. The census report notes that 'at this stage the most philosophical course is to accept the fact that the 1950 survey results (on which pre-census estimates were largely based) are inconsistent with those of the recent census and to look to future enquiries to provide explanations'. This cautious and entirely non-committal comment is modified somewhat by a statement elsewhere in the report that 'over-enumerations in censuses are rare occurrences', and I have been so bold as to suggest that the census may slightly understate the population due to diffi¬ culties of effecting complete enumeration (Kay, 1964).
The census results also illuminate errors in previous estimates of population distribution. In Table 1 estimates of de facto pop¬ ulation distribution by provinces made by the C.S.O. (based largely on the 1950 demographic sample survey) and by Williams (based largely on Labour and Population Statistics collected by the Provincial
Administration) are compared with census data. The table shows that
TABLE 1
The Percentage Distribution of African Population by Provinces According to the G.S.O., Williams, and the 1963 Census.
Province C.S.O. (1956) Williams (1956) 1963 Census
Barotse 12.8 15.3 10.7 Central 10.8 13.1 13.8 Eastern 17.1 14.7 14.2 Northern* 25.4 20.9 27.0 North-Western 6.9 6.0 6.2 Southern 12.4 13.6 13.4 Western 14.6 18.4 14.7
* includes Luapula Province
Sources: Williams, 1962 and Census Report, 1964. 4
if the census data are accepted, the official estimates understated
the population of Central Province and overstated that of Barotse
and Eastern Provinces by considerable margins. Similarly, Williams
understated the population of Northern Province (by more than 20 per cent) and overstated that of Barotse and Western Provinces. These
examples must suffice to illustrate both the unfortunate state of
affairs that prevailed in respect of population data before the
1963 census and the need to reappraise population conditions and
many statements about them in the light of the census results.
The organization and field methods of the census have been des¬
cribed elsewhere in some detail (C.S.O., 1964-; and Kay, 1964). It is sufficient to note here that within each of the 44 urban and
rural administrative districts, data were collected personally by
enumerators who visited each dwelling within the several enumeration
areas into which the districts had been divided specially for the
census. There were 725 enumeration areas in all. Enumerators also were required to record the 'location* of each dwelling, but generally
no great significance was attached to this intermediate entry. In
any case, it would have been extremely difficult to provide practicable and meaningful definitions of 'localities'. Consequently, different
practices were employed in different districts and even in different
parts of a single district. The value of these intermediate entries
is further limited by the fact that in many cases they do not refer to features that have been mapped. This restriction does not apply to European farming areas (former Crown Lands) and to urban areas;
indeed, 'locality' statistics and even more detailed break-downs of data are valuable in mapping population distributions within towns.
However, for the country as a whole the census provides uniform data for each of 725 enumeration areas and for each of 44 districts; provincial and national summaries also are available and so too are
'extracts' for the main towns and the former Crown Lands (i.e. European farming areas). The Second Report of the census (C.S.O., 19&4) 5
contains information relating to provinces, districts, towns, Crown
Lands and African rural areas. Individual reports for each district are in the course of publication; these provide data relating to
each enumeration area and to each 'locality'; the former break-down
is invaluable, the latter is of doubtful use outside the towns and
Crown Lands unless used in conjunction with field work. Unfortunately
no map of enumeration areas has been published yet; the Survey Depart ment may produce such a map in the national atlas which is now in preparation. In the meantime, the C.S.O. has a manuscript map of enumeration areas, and in 19&4 I was afforded the privilege of being allowed to make a copy of that map and to extract census data for each enumeration area. It is upon these data that the present maps are based.
Before turning to these maps, which primarily are concerned with conditions in the rural areas, it may not be amiss to draw attention to the distribution of population by types of area. Three main categories of land are recognized in the census reports and fortunately they have functional as well as statutory differences.
The total African population (3,417.580) and African males over 21 years of age (c. 747,720) were distributed between these three types of area at the time of the census as follows:
Total population Adult males
African rural areas 75.476 67.8%
European farming areas 4.89S 6.8%
Urban areas 19.S% 25.4/6
These figures show the importance of economically advanced areas in which most Africans obtain their livelihood from wage-employment. 6
Almost one-quarter of the total population and one-third of the adult males were enumerated in towns or on European farms. The distinction between the former Crown Lands and African rural areas
is one of decreasing importance, but that between rural and urban
areas remains and will continue to be one of major significance.
The urban areas may be divided into three groups according to pop¬ ulation size. There are ten major urban centres (Lusaka, Kitwe, Ndola, Mufulira, Luanshya, Chingola, Broken Hill, Livingstone, Bancroft and Kalulushi) each with a population in excess of 12,000
and with an aggregate in 1963 of 586,790 persons. There are eight minor urban centres (Fort Jameson, Kasama, Chôma, Fort Rosebery,
Hongu, Mazabuka, Abercorn and Honze) with populations in excess of 2,500 but less than 8,000 and with a combined population of
41,170 in 1963. And there are forty-six rural townships with pop¬ ulations between 100 and 2,500 which together accommodated 48,620
persons in 1963. The last group may be considered as part of the
rural population, and its constituent settlements have not been
separately distinguished on the maps in this paper. The size and location of the eighteen more important urban areas are indicated
on these maps^^ which show the dominant position in respect of urban development of the line-of-rail and of the Copperbelt in
particular; only five minor urban centres are to be found in the
up-country or truly rural areas.
Population estimates published by the C.S.O. in February 1966 indicate differences in recent rates of growth of the ten major urban centres and the country as a whole. The African population of these as towns estimated at 31st December 1965 is compared with that obtained from the May-June 1963 census in Table 2. These figures indicate an increase of 15.2 per cent in the African population of the main towns between mid-1963 and the end of 1965; in the same 7
TABLE 2
The African Population of the Main Towns at the End of 1965 and Mid-1963
31. 12. 65 May-June 1963
Lusaka 124,000 109,300 Kitwe 116,000 101,570 Ndola 88,000 76,800 Mufulira 79,000 69,310 Luanshya 76,000 66,160 Chingola 60,000 50,690 Broken Hill 46,000 40,570 Livingstone 33,000 28,840 Bancroft 32,000 27,770 Kalulushi 18,000 12,110
TOTAL 672,000 583,120 Sources: Monthly Digest of Statistics II (2), 1966, and Census Report, 1964. period the total African population increased by 8.2 per cent to an estimated 3»698,000. Such estimates conform with the impression whicl is generally held in Zambia that urban growth is very rapid at present and that the flight from the land probably accelerated during the post-independence period. The consequences for popula¬ tion distribution patterns in general terms are fairly simple, but in detail they are beyond prediction. The main towns are growing rapidly, but precisely how they are growing and exactly what type of population patterns are emerging within and around them are questions which depend upon field research for answers. 1963 census data permit base-line surveys of urban populations from which changes may be measured; they have been analysed in some detail for the two largest cities partly with this end in view (Kay, 1967).
In spite of urban growth and rural depopulation at rates which some view with alarm, there is no doubt that for many years the majority of Zambia's African population will remain in the rural 8
areas, and it is primarily with population patterns in these areas
that the maps and the following discussion are concerned.
(2) Population Distribution and Density Maps
The simplest but most effective cartographic means of represen¬
ting population distribution in rural areas is by the use of dots
of uniform size, each dot having a specific value. The population
of rural townships and, if desired, of other large settlements can
be represented by geometric clusters of the appropriate number of dots; and the population of urban centres can be separately shown by proportional circles. This combination of symbols was recommended, after much experimentation and discussion, by the International
Geographical Union's Commission on a World Population Map (William-
Olsson, 1963). The dot map's chief virtues are that, within the limitations of available information and of those associated with the value attached to the symbol and the size of the symbol, it allows accurate location of the dots and it provides a trustworthy reflection of a wide range of conditions including subtle graduations between different conditions. The success of the map depends largely upon the value allocated to the dot and, to a lesser extent, upon the size of the dots. These features must be determined after careful consideration of the range of population conditions to be represented and of the purpose and scale of the final map. As a general rule, the smaller the value allocated to the dot the better the result will be, provided it is not so low that in closely settled areas the dots coalesce or the populated area is excessively exaggerated.
Also, the smaller the dots the better the result will be, provided that each dot can be easily identified even in areas where they are closely spaced or where background details are heavy. Usually, the distribution of population can best be shown if background informa- 9
tion is kept to a minimum; spatial correlations can be assessed
by comparing a series of maps, using the population map as an over¬ lay if possible,
Zambia's population pattern is not an easy one to map. First,
the country is large and can be represented on sheets of modest
size only at small scales. Secondly, the range of densities found there is wide and both extremes cannot be represented accurately by a single method. After some cartographic and photographic experimen¬
tation, the design of the present population distribution map was adopted as being the most suitable for two purposes. The more
important was to illustrate a textbook^ The map therefore had
to be amenable to reduction to page-size (9^ x 7^ inches), and at
this size it is, in fact, an effective educational device. The other purpose was to produce a working document which would permit analysis of the population distribution. A somewhat larger map is
necessary for this purpose, and the enclosed map was printed to meet this need economically; it is also useful for display purposes.
The map at this scale was first issued by the C.S.O. in 1965.
The map was compiled by drafting the boundaries of rural enumeration areas from the 1:500,000 series of maps (Survey Depart¬ ment, 1962) on to the 1:500,000 map of Zambia (Survey Department,
1963) which was selected as the base-map because of its content and
its suitable overall size. Within each enumeration area the appropriât number of dots, each representing 500 persons, were distributed according to all available evidence as to the occurrence of actual
settlements. Various maps, literary sources and air photographs were consulted in an attempt to acquire sufficient local knowledge of all parts of Zambia to permit reasonably accurate location of
the dots. District maps at the scale of 1:250,000 prepared by local administrative officers and issued by the Survey Department 10 were particularly useful in this phase of the work. In the hope that any serious error would be identified, preliminary drafts of the final map were sent to knowledgeable persons in Zambia for scrutiny and comment. The net result is a fair representation of the general distribution of African population in Zambia. The chief weakness of the map occurs in very sparsely populated areas where settlements are small and scattered. In such areas the representation of 500 persons by one dot at a specific locality involves excessive contrac¬ tion of the actual settled area, and the convention must be inter¬ preted accordingly. The value of the dot could not be reduced further without jeopardizing the depiction of conditions in congested regions.
To avoid over-crowding the map, background information was kept to minimum and was provided as far as possible in uninhabited or sparsely peopled areas. The main function of such details is to facilitate comparisons of the population map with others. It therefore was necessary to select features likely to appear on other maps and which provide all parts of the country with a point of reference.
The chief disadvantages of dot maps paradoxically arise from those features which are their main virtues. Each dot map is individu¬ ally designed to provide the best visual impression of a particular distribution. The apparent density of dots on one map cannot be compared with the occurrence of dots on another unless both are exactly alike in terms of scale, the size of dots, the value attached to the dots, and the method of distributing them. Furthermore, dot maps do not readily permit quantitative statements about population conditions they portray, and qualitative discussion is difficult to interpret without reference to the map itself. Maps of population density which indicate the ratio of a number of persons to a given area of land therefore can be a useful complement to dot maps of population distribution. In fact, population : land ratios probably are the most popular mathematical expression in geographical studies 11 of population. They can be expressed simply and quoted easily.
They can conjure up pictures of wide, empty spaces or of crowded lands; they can be used to summarize a whole complex of conditions, and they lend themselves to quick comparisons. On these grounds alone they deserve close attention, and problems associated with their cartographic use require careful study.
The units for which population densities may be mapped usually are determined by the geographical break-down of published data.
In most cases population statistics are returned for administrative areas but occasionally, as in the case of the 1963 census of Zambia, special areas are demarcated for the collection and publication of data. Prior to the publication (which is not yet complete) of detailed reports on the 19&3 census, the smallest unit to which published population statistics related in Zambia was the administrative district. Most districts are large (Fig. 1). Rural Zambia consists of only 35 districts, and 9 of them have areas in excess of 10,000 square miles. The largest are Kasempa District with 16,053 square miles and Mpika District with 15,805 square miles. Only four districts
(Chôma, Feira, Gwembe and Mazabuka) have less than 5,000 square miles.
In the compilation of density maps, the larger the unit the more sweeping is the generalization involved. Furthermore, the actual shading or colouring of a choropleth map suggests that population conditions are uniform throughout the district or group of districts within each category of densities mapped. The visual impression therefore can be more misleading than a simple numerical statement of the mean density in each district. Therefore, if the network of administrative areas is very coarse, the mapping of population densities is inadvisable unless there is such a wide range of condi¬ tions that a useful pattern can be shown in spite of the limitations of the break-down of the statistics. This is hardly the case in
Zambia. Provincial Boundaries Abercorr/ ® 1-. Provincial Headquarters ; Mporokosov~" District Boundaries 18 5 \
15 District Headquarters Kawambwa / 14 3 / 0^ / f ' l -, ; „ Z Isoka / 10* Urban Districts > * V' ® ; /• : « Luwingux\ KASAMA ( ) /" v~"; ' " *""• S ' ' x 1 / s\ 15 5 v «■*' Chinsali i ■ s / 155 ; } » FORT ! @ 11 9 ROSEBERY i J 10 0 /)
Mpika C
SOLWEZI ; »• i Lundazi % s
Balovale Kasempa L-, ^ FORT ® JAMESON
VO.
Mankoya | Kalabo / 18 3 V C\ ®MONGU\ 43 !
l' Senanga# \ \ 5 6 - Persons per square mile \ N \ / Sesheke 200 'yX _J miles
18* LIVINGSTONE < 24* i r*
Fig 1 Administrative Areas and Population Density 12
Even to those who are fully aware of the limitations inherent
in the method of compilation, the interpretation of choropleth maps,
and particularly of poor ones, is not easy. To those who know
little or nothing about the method, it can be a hazardous task and
the apparent simplicity of many poor maps can deceive the uninitiated.
Therefore there are cases where no map is better than a poor one, and in view of the variety of local conditions revealed by the pop¬
ulation distribution map it would be difficult to justify a choropleth map of population density using the figures for rural administrative
districts in Zambia as shown in Table 3 and Figure 1. It will be
noted from these figures that Mazabuka District (one of the smallest
in Zambia), with 36.7 persons per square mile, has the highest den¬ sity of population, and that only four districts have densities of more than 20 p.p. sq. ml. Kawambwa District, which contains the most densely populated major region of the country, has a mean den¬
sity of only 18.5 p.p. sq. ml. A map of enumeration areas would
provide a more suitable base on which to plot the density of popu¬ lation in rural Zambia, and this exercise is being undertaken by
the Survey Department to prepare a map for the forthcoming national
atlas. This map, which will have the advantages of colour printing,
will be a valuable contribution to the geographical analysis of
population conditions in Zambia.
The map of population density presented here, however, is
compiled by a method of recent origins (Prothero, i960) which frees choropleth techniques from the rigidity imposed by the published form
of population data and which imparts some of the features of dot maps.
A dot distribution map compiled on lines such as those indicated above
is a prerequisite; it is, in fact, the base-map. The distribution
shown on such a map is more detailed and more realistic than that indicated by the geographical break-down of published data and
therefore it is a logical step to use the former and not the latter
in the preparation of a density map. The dot map can be covered 13
TABLE 3
Population Density of Rural Districts
(Persons per square mile)
Barotse Province Northern Province
Kalabo 10.1 Abercorn 12.7 Manokoya 4.3 Chinsali 11.9 Mongu-Lealui 18.3 Isoka 15.0 Senanga 6.3 Kasama 14.3 Sesheke 3.8 Luwingu 15.5 Mpika 3.9 Central Province Mporokoso 6.8
Broken Hill Rural 8.7 North-Western Province Feira 6.6 Lusaka 7.5 Balovale 7.5 Mkushi 6.3 Kabompo 5.9 Mumbwa 6.6 Kasempa 2.1 Serenje 5.8 Mwinilunga 5.6 Solwezi 3.8 Eastern Province Southern Province Fort Jameson 34.1 Lundazi 10.0 Chôma 34.0 Petauke 16.5 Cwembe 14.4 Kalomo 5.8 Luapula Province Mazabuka 36.7 Namwala 3.9 Fort Rosebery 13.8 Kawambwa 18.5 Western Province Samfya 25.3 Ndola Rural 6.3
RURAL ZAMBIA - 9.5 persons per square mile
Source: Census Report, 1964
with a grid which will divide the country into several parts or units of equal size and shape. The size of the Unit is determined by the cartographer with reference to his particular task. He must consider the scale of the base-map and that of the final copy and the value of the dot, but within the limitations imposed by these 14 the smaller the unit the more detailed and more useful will be the result. Once the grid has been superimposed on the dot map it is a simple matter to count the number of dots in each unit and calculate the density for each one. It is possible to allocate fractions of dots to units in cases where dots are divided by grid lines but this practice is not recommended. Dots which are equally divided between two (or four) units can be 'moved' northwards or westwards (or both) into one of these squares. If the range of densities recorded is very great it may be necessary to group several together. The final map then can be prepared by differentiating each density or group- of densities by a system of graded shading or by colours, and the grid lines can be removed entirely or from within homogenous areas.
The virtues of such a map will be self-evident from inspection of the enclosed specimen and from analysis of it. The limitations of such maps are those of the dot map from which it was compiled, notably the exaggeration of the extent and understatement of densities in areas of very close settlement and, on the other hand, the con¬ traction of the settled area and overstatement of densities in sparsely peopled regions. Also the placement of the grid can affect the representation of local conditions. For example, it is possible that an isolated cluster of four dots could occur entirely within one unit or, at the other extreme, be divided between four units.
Such limitations, however, are limitations of scale and are unavoid¬ able. Nevertheless they should be borne in mind in any analysis of this type of map.
The population density map of Zambia was compiled by placing a grid of squares each encompassing 25 square miles upon the dot distri¬ bution map at its original scale of 1:1,500,000. This grid divided the rural areas (i.e. Zambia less (i) the Copperbelt and the main urban areas as shaded on the map and (ii) the major areas of open 15 water) into 11,537 squares, a figure which indicates that the area of rural Zambia is about 288,400 square miles. The density of pop¬ ulation in each square was calculated simply by counting the number of dots in each. One dot represents 500 persons, therefore a square with one dot within it has a density of 20 persons per square mile, a square with two dots has a density of 40 p.p. sq. ml. and so on.
Thirteen categories ranging from squares with no population to one square with a density of 240 p.p. sq. ml. were recorded and differen¬ tiated by the use of colours. Financial considerations prohibit the publication of this map at a scale of 1:1,500,000 in colour and, in any case, I am not convinced that the use of several colours is preferable to grades of shading using one colour. To reproduce it economically several adjustments had to be made.
First, the number of categories to be shown was reduced to seven by grouping all squares with densities in excess of 100 p.p. sq. ml.
There are, in fact, only 67 such squares and only 9 of them have densities of l60 or more p.p. sq. ml. This change therefore is of minor significance. Secondly, it was decided that the map could be reduced in size without serious loss of clarity. Indeed, it is probably easier to comprehend the salient features of the patterns shown from a smaller map. The scale chosen was that of the dot distribution map which had been released by the C.S.O. so that the two may be compared directly and used as a pair. Thirdly, and most important, some means of shading the seven categories in black and white had to be discovered. All attempts at hand shading proved unsuccessful and the answer was found by applying a series of printed, arithmetically graded stipples^. A series which affords a good degree of contrast was selected (i.e. a stipple with a relatively large size of dots - 27.5 lines per inch) and the following grades were used: 16
Code number •Weight' Density (i.e. % black) (p.p. sq. ml.)
Blank nil nil LT1 10# 20 LT2 40 LT3 60 LT4 80 LT5 50% 100 LT7 70% over 100
The method of applying these materials to such a map is tedious and time-consuming but there is no satisfactory alternative and the end justifies the means.
The final product is a more realistic cartographic statement of population densities in rural Zambia than any choropleth map pre¬ pared directly from published data can offer. The map might be criticised because it does not provide simple statements about pop¬ ulation conditions. The fact is, of course, that actual conditions are not simple, and over-generalization is a dangerous practice.
However, the map can be analysed to produce relatively simple but valuable statements. The number of squares in each category can be counted and the proportional (and absolute) distributions of both the rural area and the rural population according to each category can be calculated because the size of each square is known and the number of persons in each square (except those with densities in excess of 100 p.p. sq. ml.) also is known. The population of the group of squares with densities of more than 100 p.p. sq. ml. can be obtained by deducting the aggregate of all the other squares from the total rural population. (There are, in fact, 452 dots each representing 500 persons in these 67 squares. The average figures for these squares therefore are 6.7 dots and 5,350 persons.) The results of this simple exercise in enumeration for the whole of rural Zambia are summarized in Table 4. 17
TABLE 4
Percentage Distribution of Rural Land and Population by Categories of Population Density
Density % of rural % of rural (p.p. sq. ml.) land population
nil 69.7 nil 20 20.6 43.5 40 5.6 23.8 60 2.2 12.5 80 0.9 7.5 100 0.4 4.4 over 100 0.6 8.3
The figures in Table 4 qualify the mean density for rural
Zambia as a whole which is 9.5 p.p. sq. ml. They indicate that
about two-thirds of the rural areas are virtually uninhabited and
that two-thirds of the Remainder have a density of only 20 p.p. sq. ml
Closely settled lands with densities of 60 or more p.p. sq. ml. con¬
stitute only four per cent of the rural areas but they do accommodate
about one-third of the rural population. It is, however, evident that the majority of Zambia's rural population lives in moderately
or sparsely populated areas. It will be recalled that the map under¬
states the occurrence of settlement in thinly peopled areas because of the summation (necessary at this scale) involved in the represen¬
tation on the dot map of not less than 500 persons at a particular
point. Therefore particular care should be exercised in interpreting
the figures at the lower end of the scale. Of course, the limita¬
tions of the map should be remembered in examination of figures at
the other extreme also. The exaggeration of the settled area and
consequent understatement of local densities is quite considerable
in some densely peopled areas. This can be illustrated by quoting approximate densities for actual discrete areas of land in part of the Bangweulu swamps in Samfya District (Kay, 1967): 18
Locality Population Approximate density (p.p. sq. ml.)
Chishi Island 5,200 520 Matongo Island 2,700 450 Nsumbu Island 3,200 400 Ncheta Island 3,300 330 Nsalushi Island 2,100 300 Kapata Peninsula 10,600 280 Chilubi Island 12,500 240
Such high densities do not appear on the map because of their limited occurrence.
Figures such as those in Table 4 can be obtained for any major region of rural Zambia. Any system of boundaries can be superimposed upon the map and the distribution of land and people by density for the region can be calculated by simple enumeration as indicated above. For example, if it is desired to know what conditions prevail within 50 miles of the line-of-rail or within a given radius of a selected urban centre, or in a particular tribal area, or where- maize
is the staple crop, or in any such region, the appropriate lines can be drawn on the map and the numerical exercise thence-forward is simple. In the case of squares with densities in excess of 100 p.p. sq. ml. the mean figures (quoted above) for such squares would have to be used in regional calculations; use of these figures would not cause any serious distortion. The map therefore is not only a useful representation of population conditions but also a valuable working document.
Population Regions
Both maps show that while the greater part of Zambia is only moderately or sparsely peopled there are quite extensive tracts of relatively densely peopled and virtually uninhabited land. Demar¬ cation of these regions which differ substantially from typical or average conditions may provide a useful summary of the major features
19 of population patterns in rural Zambia. The dot map is not easy to divide into population regions, but an attempt to do so was made
by scrutinizing a small print of it through a reducing glass and
sketching the boundaries of densely peopled and empty regions which this optical exercise throws up. The result is a simple but effective map of population regions which is easily memorized (Kay, 1967). The density map affords opportunities for more objective approaches, and several precise formulae were devised, tried and rejected for one reason or another. Ultimately a combination of objective and
subjective methods was adopted. Uninhabited regions were defined by grouping squares which contained no dots and which were not con¬ tiguous with a square with dots. Several large areas of empty land were identified by this means and their boundaries were finalized by ad hoc minor amendments which simplified their presentation on a small-scale map; small areas were ignored. Densely peopled areas were demarcated by grouping all squares with three or more dots
(i.e. with 60 or more p.p. sq. ml.) and all adjoining squares regard¬ less of the number of dots within them. As in the case of empty lands, the boundaries of the densely populated regions were refined for final presentation and a few small areas were not recognized as regions. The results are shown in Figure 2, and they are not unlike those identified from the dot map. It is, however, possible to describe conditions within each region in some detail from the evi¬ dence of the density map.
The virtually uninhabited regions fall into two groups. The larger is in west-central Zambia and consists of one large and two small areas. Together they cover 32,875 square miles and provide homes for only 4,500 persons. The other group consists of a large area on the western and a small one on the eastern side of the Luangwa valley. It covers 13»125 square miles and contains only 4,000 persons.
Together these empty lands encompass 15.9 per cent of rural Zambia and accommodate only 0.3 per cent of the rural population; they 20
have a density of 0.18 p.p. sq. ml. The size and location of these
regions presents Zambia with some problems. Each group extends
almost from the northern to the southern boundary of the country and
separates densely peopled regions in the eastern and western margins
from the economic and political heartland along the line-of-rail.
These expanses of 'dead land' thus intensify the remoteness and
isolation of the Eastern Province plateau and, more particularly, of central Barotse Province and Balovale District. Zambia, in fact,
faces problems of geographical integration which are basically not
unlike those which the U.S.A. encountered in its efforts to unite
the Pacific coastlands with the eastern and central states.
TABLE 5
Densely Populated Regions of Rural Zambia
Region Area Population Density (sq. mis) (p.p. sq.' ml.)
Major regions: Luapula-Mweru valley 2,475 118,000 48 Eastern Province plateau 8,075 381,500 47 Tonga plateau 5,100 211,000 43 Bangweulu basin 4,450 148,500 33 Upper Zambezi 6,075 165,500 27 Lusaka-Murabwa 4,500 118,000 26
Minor regions:
Fort Rosebery 725 24,000 33 Chirundu 350 11,500 33 Abercorn 1,050 33,500 32 Kawambwa 825 26,500 32 Kasama 1,175 36,000 31 Lake Kariba 1,000 25,000 25
Twelve densely populated regions, six large and six small ones, have been identified (Fig. 2 and Table 5). Together they constitui only 12.4 per cent of rural Zambia but they accommodate 47.3 per cent of the rural population. The overall density of these regions 21
is 37 P*P» sq. ml., which is not a high figure by world standards
but nevertheless it is almost four times as high as that for rural
Zambia as a whole. Settlement is not evenly distributed throughout
any of these regions, and in all but two of them (the Eastern Province
and Tonga plateau regions) there is a considerable proportion of
empty land; in seven regions more than 30 per cent of the total area
is shown to be without settlement. In only one region, the Luapula-
Mweru valley, does very densely populated land with 100 or more p.p.
sq. ml. constitute a significant proportion (23.3 per cent) of the
total area.
Geographically, the densely populated regions fall into four
groups. In the far west a single region (consisting of two parts)
lies along the upper reaches of the Zambezi. It is balanced by another (also of two parts) in the extreme east of the country.
This is the largest densely populated region and it occupies more
than 8,000 square miles of the Eastern Province plateau. The other
two groups are more complex. The more compact one occurs in the Southern and Central Provinces. Its two largest constituent regions
are the Tonga plateau and the Lusaka-Mumbwa regions, both of which
lie astride the line-of-rai1. To these may be added the small
region on the shores of Lake Kariba and that centred upon Chirundu
and the main road across the Zambezi to Rhodesia. The fourth group
is in the northern parts of Zambia beyond the Katanga pedicle. It consists of the Luapula-Mweru valley and the Bangweulu basin regions
together with four small regions. All of the small regions are associated with important settlements. Kasama and Fort Rosebery,
the headquarters of Northern and Luapula Provinces respectively,
have given rise to densely populated peri-urban areas. Similar
development has occurred at Abercorn, and that township is flanked
by the port of Mpulungu on the west and the large mission station
of Kawimbe on the east which also have contributed to the emergence
of a region of close settlement at the southern end of Lake Tanzania. 22
The Kawambwa region has two focal points. One consists of Kawambwa
township and the nearby village of Chief Munkanta; the other consists of Chief Mushota's and Chief Chama's villages which lie on either
side of the Lufubu river about 25 miles east of the borna.
The virtually uninhabited and the densely populated regions together comprise 28.3 per cent of the rural area and accommodate
47.6 per cent of the rural population. The remainder of rural Zambia
(71.7 per cent) is more in keeping with the image projected by national averages. In fact, the density of population for this vast area is 7 p.p. sq. m. There are, of course, differences in densities and in types of distribution within this area. For example, the north-eastern part of the Northern Province and areas astride the line-of-rail in the Central and Southern Provinces are relatively closely and evenly settled. In contrast, there is a marked linear distribution of population and a high proportion of open spaces in both Barotse and Luapula Provinces. Taken as a whole, however, by comparison with the densely peopled and uninhabited regions, more than two-thirds of rural Zambia can be fairly described as sparsely populated without either vast empty spaces or significant local concentrations of population. Because of their extent, such con¬ ditions may be regarded as typical of rural Zambia; but if this is so, it should be remembered that almost half of the rural population live in a-typical regions - and one out of every five Africans in
Zambia lives in a town. 23
NOTES
1. The figure of 100,300 for Lusaka shown on the map of population distribution is that quoted in the preliminary report on the census. The population of the capital and its peri-urban area subsequently was found to be 109,300, the difference being due to inaccuracies in the first summarization of the detailed returns. Unfortunately the map was printed before the correction was announced. The figures shown for the other urban areas are for the urban districts, i.e. the areas shaded on the maps.
2. For a full discussion of various cartographic methods and techniques, see Maps and Diagrams by Monkhouse and Wilkinson (1964).
3. The map was prepared for and appears in A Social Geography of Zambia (Kay, 1967). It is reproduced by permission of the author and the publishers.
4. The material chosen is 'Letratone* which is produced by Letraset Ltd. 24
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