DOCSLIB.ORG

An Appraisal of America's Economic Prospects

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
An Appraisal of America's Economic Prospects From The Collected Works of Milton Friedman, compiled and edited by Robert Leeson and Charles G. Palm. “An Appraisal of America’s Economic Prospects: Newsweek's Economic Columnists Survey the Past Year and Predict What Lies Ahead” by Milton Friedman, Paul A. Samuelson, and Henry Wallich Newsweek, 12 January 1970, pp. 52-53 ©The Newsweek/Daily Beast Company LLC Newsweek’s Economic Columnists Survey the Past Year and Predict What Lies Ahead What’s in store for the economy in 1970? Faced with the cloudiest crystal ball in years, NEWSWEEK put a list of questions to its three economic columnists: Milton Friedman, economics professor at the University of Chicago and leader of the increasingly influential monetarist school; Paul A. Samuelson of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, one of the foremost exponents of the Keynesian “new economics,” and Henry Wallich of Yale, a former member of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers who is now a consultant to the Treasury Department. The questions, and the varying answers: 1. What went wrong in 1969? FRIEDMAN: Nothing went wrong, except that people expected too much too soon. True, prices are still rising, but they are rising less rapidly than a few months ago. The rate of rise will continue to decline. Inflation has started tapering off. The delay between monetary tightening and slower price increases is about par for the course. WALLICH: I would say not much went wrong, and on the whole we are not far behind schedule. Recession was avoided, and things are slowing down in the order you might expect: first output, then employment, and prices last. One problem that made inflation worse was the tendency of business to believe that because the Administration was trying to avoid recession, its anti-inflation efforts would not succeed. I still think it was right to tell people honestly what was being attempted, rather than try to scare them with the prospect of recession. SAMUELSON: Every year is known for one big error. History will judge that 1969’s biggest blooper was the “gradualism” of the early Nixon team. They misgauged the strength of inflationary expectations; and because of their obsession against fine-tuning, they did too little at the beginning. In consequence, they may wind up doing too much in the end. 2. As you see it, what is the biggest question mark for 1970? SAMUELSON: I think it is: “Will 1970 be a year of actual recession–sustained decline in real national product?” And I would guess that the answer is “No.” Some slowdown, yes; but my betting chips go against the extremists who envisage a 1958-type recession, with 6 and 7 per cent unemployment. FRIEDMAN: The real question will be the monetary policies followed by the Federal Reserve Board. In the past, the Fed has tended to go from one extreme to the other–from a policy that is too contractionary, as it is right now, to a policy that is too expansionary. My guess (and hope) is that this will not happen again; that under the new leadership of Arthur Burns, the Fed will move now to a moderate and steady expansion of the nation’s money supply. From The Collected Works of Milton Friedman, compiled and edited by Robert Leeson and Charles G. Palm. WALLICH: There are many questions. There is the role of the government itself—not just because of the undetermined cost of the war and defense spending, but also because Congress doesn’t get around to voting the full budget until the fiscal year is half over, and even then it pays little attention to its own spending ceiling. The consumer is another gamble; right now he is acting scared. Business plant and equipment spending is crucial—if it folds, we have had it. But the biggest uncertainty is not whether we have a recession, but what kind of slowdown it is—whether the year follows the pattern of the monetarists (a certain recession, and perhaps a deep one), or the pattern of the standard forecast (a short stagnation, followed by a quick recovery). 3. In the end, are a recession and high unemployment really necessary to slow down inflation? FRIEDMAN: There’s no way to slow inflation that doesn’t involve some economic slowdown and some rise in unemployment. That is the price we must pay for the inflationary policies that were followed from 1965 to 1968. The only way to avoid a slowdown in 1970 would be to speed up inflation still further—and that would only postpone the slowdown, and probably make it more severe when it finally comes. However, this doesn’t mean that we need a severe recession to bring inflation under control at this point. A mild slowdown would still be enough. SAMUELSON: Since President Nixon has renounced guidepost leadership, he has no other way to moderate inflation than to contrive a slowdown. But if unemployment went higher than 5 per cent, the nation would consider it politically intolerable; and that obviously means that there is still considerable inflation ahead. If unemployment is not allowed to rise above 5 per cent, we can expect price inflation merely to moderate—to drop from an annual rate of about 5.5 per cent to not much below 4 per cent. WALLICH: It would be wrong to say that a recession is “necessary,” but there is always a risk that it might happen. And some increase in unemployment is probably unavoidable. However, over the year as a whole, I would not expect the unemployment rate to average much above 4 per cent. The effectiveness of a recession in halting inflation can be overplayed in this day and age. Since everybody is looking at “the other side of the valley,” a short recession wouldn’t change expectations much. 4. The Administration’s forecast now is that there will be a mild slowdown, with equally mild impact on the inflation rate, followed by renewed growth. What do you think? WALLICH: I agree. Inflation won’t be reduced very much—not much below 4 per cent on the cost-of-living index—but the drop will demonstrate that inflation can be halted. Once that is driven home, progress should be easier. SAMUELSON: Even Barnum couldn’t expect many to swallow that. If I couldn’t believe Arthur Burns last winter when he promised that inflation would be down to 3 per cent by this Christmas, how can I believe the Council of Economic Advisers when it forecasts that business can look beyond the valley to full-employment growth with only a nominal increase in price levels? Can Paul McCracken believe his own numbers? From The Collected Works of Milton Friedman, compiled and edited by Robert Leeson and Charles G. Palm. FRIEDMAN: The most likely pattern for the year is a mild recession, such as that which occurred in 1960-61. But a more severe recession, such as occurred in 1957-58, is not at all unlikely, and will become very nearly a sure thing if the Federal Reserve Board continues its present policies much longer. On the other hand, if the Fed overreacts, we shall be off to the inflationary races again. If the board shifts to a moderate but steady expansion of the money supply, the recession will end two or three quarters later and we can start on a path of non-inflationary growth. 5. Professor Samuelson, the Friedmanites seem to be dominating economic dialogue these days. Is Keynes dead? SAMUELSON: Yes. So are Newton and Einstein. 6. But are the post-Keynesian economists swinging to the monetarist camp? SAMUELSON: Not in my county. Keynes didn’t ignore monetary policy; he was eclectic—and the eclectic approach decisively outperformed strict monetarism in 1969. I’ve just compared my own forecast of a year ago with the forecasts of several leading monetarist economists. Modesty forbids me to say more. 7. Dr. Friedman, some economists who agree with your general monetary theory now believe that money isn’t really as tight as it seems. In effect, these economists argue that people are finding ways to move money faster and stretch it farther than in the past. What do you think? FRIEDMAN: The velocity of money always tends to rise for a time after a reduction in monetary growth; then it turns around and starts to decline. So far, there is nothing unusual about the present episode. I think the usual pattern will continue to unfold, and thus a recession in 1970 is highly likely. 8. There are other economists this year who doubt that there will be any slowdown at all. This school argues that all the real forces point to expansion—and that if the Fed doesn’t provide more money to meet the resultant demand, the economy is headed for bankruptcies and money panic. SAMUELSON: When the 1968 surcharge didn’t end the inflation, and then the 1969 tight Fed policy didn’t end the inflation, a lot of Wall Street people turned nihilistic on economics. That’s their privilege: if youth under 25 can be nihilistic, why deprive the over-50 of their civil rights? But why buy an argument from people who say in one breath that economic policy is impotent to curb inflation, and in the next breath say it will plunge you into depression if you persist in it? FRIEDMAN: Their outcome is one chance in a thousand. Their analysis goes wrong mostly because of its lack of perspective, and its failure to allow for the time lapse between action and reaction. WALLICH: There’s no precedent suggesting that inflation cannot be stopped.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Conservative Collision Course?: the Tension Between Conservative Corporate Law Theory and Citizens United
    ISSN 1936-5349 (print) ISSN 1936-5357 (online) HARVARD JOHN M. OLIN CENTER FOR LAW, ECONOMICS, AND BUSINESS CONSERVATIVE COLLISION COURSE?: THE TENSION BETWEEN CONSERVATIVE CORPORATE LAW THEORY AND CITIZENS UNITED Leo E. Strine, Jr. Nicholas Walter Discussion Paper No. 788 08/2014 Forthcoming, Cornell Law Review, Volume 100, January 2015 Harvard Law School Cambridge, MA 02138 This paper can be downloaded without charge from: The Harvard John M. Olin Discussion Paper Series: http://www.law.harvard.edu/programs/olin_center/ The Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2481061 This paper is also a discussion paper of the Harvard Law School Program on Corporate Governance CONSERVATIVE COLLISION COURSE?: THE TENSION BETWEEN CONSERVATIVE CORPORATE LAW THEORY AND CITIZENS UNITED Leo E. Strine, Jr.∗ and Nicholas Walter∗∗ Forthcoming, Cornell Law Review, Volume 100, January 2015 ∗ Chief Justice, Delaware Supreme Court; Adjunct Professor, University of Pennsylvania Law School; Austin Wakeman Scott Lecturer, Harvard Law School; Senior Fellow, Harvard Program on Corporate Governance; Adjunct Professor, Vanderbilt University School of Law; Henry Crown Fellow, Aspen Institute. ∗∗ Law clerk, ; law clerk, Delaware Court of Chancery, 2012-13. The authors acknowledge the invaluable assistance of Elane Boulden, Jennifer Broder, Chelsea Darnell, and Vanessa Richardson, and are grateful for incisive thoughts from Lucian Bebchuk, John Coates, Erin Daly, Lawrence Hamermesh, Robert Post, Roberta Romano, Guhan Subramanian, Randall Thomas, and Michael Wachter. Abstract One important aspect of Citizens United has been overlooked: the tension between the conservative majority’s view of for-profit corporations, and the theory of for-profit corporations embraced by conservative thinkers.
    [Show full text]
  • Stories of the 1930S for the 1980S
    Yale University EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale Discussion Papers Economic Growth Center 4-1-1981 Stories of the 1930s for the 1980s Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro Follow this and additional works at: https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/egcenter-discussion-paper-series Recommended Citation Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos F., "Stories of the 1930s for the 1980s" (1981). Discussion Papers. 384. https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/egcenter-discussion-paper-series/384 This Discussion Paper is brought to you for free and open access by the Economic Growth Center at EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale. It has been accepted for inclusion in Discussion Papers by an authorized administrator of EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ECONOMIC GROWfH CENTER YALE UNIVERSITY Box 1987, Yale Station New Haven, Connecticut CENTER DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 376 STORIES OF THE 1930s IDR THE 1980s Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro April 1981 Note: Center Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical cotmnent. References in publications to Discussion Papers should be cleared with the author to protect the tentative character of these papers. Stories of the 1930s for the 1980s Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro Yale University Cnce upon a tine foreign money doctors roaned La.tin • .Alrerica prescribing fixed exchange rates and passive gold~xchange­ standard J1D1etary rules. Bankers followed 1n their footsteps, fran the halls of McnteZtDTa to the shores of Daiquiri. 'lb the delight of local dignitaries, the not-so-exigente financiers would yield convertible cash for IOU' s.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report
    COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS ANNUAL REPORT July 1,1998 - June 30,1999 Main Office Washington Office The Harold Pratt House 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10021 Washington, DC 20036 Tel. (212) 434-9400; Fax (212) 861-•1789 TTele . (202) 518-3400; Fax (202) 986-2984 Website www.cfr.org E-mail communications@cfr. org Officers and Directors, 1999–2000 Officers Directors Term Expiring 2004 Peter G. Peterson Term Expiring 2000 John Deutch Chairman of the Board Jessica P.Einhorn Carla A. Hills Maurice R. Greenberg Louis V. Gerstner Jr. Robert D. Hormats* Vice Chairman Maurice R. Greenberg William J. McDonough* Leslie H. Gelb Theodore C. Sorensen President George J. Mitchell George Soros* Michael P.Peters Warren B. Rudman Senior Vice President, Chief Operating Term Expiring 2001 Leslie H. Gelb Officer, and National Director ex officio Lee Cullum Paula J. Dobriansky Vice President, Washington Program Mario L. Baeza Honorary Officers David Kellogg Thomas R. Donahue and Directors Emeriti Vice President, Corporate Affairs, Richard C. Holbrooke Douglas Dillon and Publisher Peter G. Peterson† Caryl P.Haskins Lawrence J. Korb Robert B. Zoellick Charles McC. Mathias Jr. Vice President, Studies David Rockefeller Term Expiring 2002 Elise Carlson Lewis Honorary Chairman Vice President, Membership Paul A. Allaire and Fellowship Affairs Robert A. Scalapino Roone Arledge Abraham F. Lowenthal Cyrus R.Vance John E. Bryson Vice President Glenn E. Watts Kenneth W. Dam Anne R. Luzzatto Vice President, Meetings Frank Savage Janice L. Murray Laura D’Andrea Tyson Vice President and Treasurer Term Expiring 2003 Judith Gustafson Secretary Peggy Dulany Martin S.
    [Show full text]
  • Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations
    FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations Athanasios Orphanides Central Bank of Cyprus and John C. Williams Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco May 2011 Working Paper 2010-12 http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2010/wp10-12bk.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations Athanasios Orphanides Central Bank of Cyprus and John C. Williams∗ Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco May 2011 Abstract What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s? We use counterfactual simulations of an esti- mated model of the U.S. economy to evaluate alternative monetary policy strategies. We show that policies constructed using modern optimal control techniques aimed at stabilizing inflation, economic activity, and interest rates would have succeeded in achieving a high de- gree of economic stability as well as price stability only if the Federal Reserve had possessed excellent information regarding the structure of the economy or if it had acted as if it placed relatively low weight on stabilizing the real economy. Neither condition held true. We doc- ument that policymakers at the time both had an overly optimistic view of the natural rate of unemployment and put a high priority on achieving full employment.
    [Show full text]
  • Issues in Federal Debt Management
    Conference Series No. 10 ADAMS KAUFMAN SHAPIRO BOSWORTH-DUESENBERRY MACLAURY STRUBLE-AXILROD CULBERTSON NORDHAUS-WALLICH WHITE GOODHART RICKS WILLETT JAFFEE ROOB YOUNGDAHL PROCEEDINGS OF A CONFERENCE HELD IN JUNE 1973 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON ISSUES IN FEDERAL DEBT MANAGEMENT Proceedings of a Conference Held at Melvin Village, New Hampshire June, 1973 Sponsored by THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON CONFERENCE SERIES NO. 1 CONTROLLING MONETARY AGGREGATES JUNE, 1969 NO. 2 THE INTERNATIONAL ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM OCTOBER, 1969 NO. 3 FINANCING STATE and LOCAL GOVERNMENTS in the SEVENTIES JUNE, 1970 NO. 4 HOUSING and MONETARY POLICY OCTOBER, 1970 NO. 5 CONSUMER SPENDING and MONETARY POLICY: THE LINKAGES JUNE, 1971 NO. 6 CANADIAN-UNITED STATES FINANCIAL RELATIONSHIPS SEPTEMBER, 1971 NO. 7 FINANCING PUBLIC SCHOOLS JANUARY, 1972 NO. 8 POLICIES for a MORE COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL SYSTEM JUNE, 1972 NO. CONTROLLING MONETARY AGGREGATES II: THE IMPLEMENTATION SEPTEMBER, 1972 NO. 10 ISSUES IN FEDERAL DEBT MANAGEMENT JUNE, 1973 FOREWORD Issues related to public debt management have changed considerably in recent years. The changed relative size of the Federal Government debt, the increased importance of agency issues - these and other factors make a fresh look at debt management issues appropriate at this time. All of the papers and comments of discussants included in this volume were presented at a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in June 1973. That meeting was the tenth in a series dealing with current financial issues; the printed proceedings of those conferences have received a wide distribution and have been useful to many persons concerned with policy issues.
    [Show full text]
  • Interview with Edwin M. Truman Former Staff Director, Division of International Finance
    Federal Reserve Board Oral History Project Interview with Edwin M. Truman Former Staff Director, Division of International Finance Date: November 30, 2009, and December 22, 2009 Location: Washington, D.C. Interviewers: David H. Small, Karen Johnson, Larry Promisel, and Jaime Marquez Federal Reserve Board Oral History Project In connection with the centennial anniversary of the Federal Reserve in 2013, the Board undertook an oral history project to collect personal recollections of a range of former Governors and senior staff members, including their background and education before working at the Board; important economic, monetary policy, and regulatory developments during their careers; and impressions of the institution’s culture. Following the interview, each participant was given the opportunity to edit and revise the transcript. In some cases, the Board staff also removed confidential FOMC and Board material in accordance with records retention and disposition schedules covering FOMC and Board records that were approved by the National Archives and Records Administration. Note that the views of the participants and interviewers are their own and are not in any way approved or endorsed by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Because the conversations are based on personal recollections, they may include misstatements and errors. ii Contents November 30, 2009, Morning (Part 1 of 3 of the Interview) ..................................................... 1 General Background and Experience at Yale University ............................................................... 1 Joining the Federal Reserve Board Staff ...................................................................................... 23 Early Years in the Division of International Finance and Forecasting ................................... 25 November 30, 2009, Afternoon (Part 2 of 3 of the Interview) ................................................. 49 Early Projects and Reforming the International Monetary System .........................................
    [Show full text]
  • From Abundance to Scarcity Implications for the American Tradition Kenneth E
    The Hammond Lectures Number 1 From Abundance to Scarcity Implications for the American Tradition Kenneth E. Boulding Michael Kammen Seymour Martin Lipset Number 1 From Abundance to Scarcity Implications for the American Tradition Kenneth E. Boulding Michael Kammen Seymour Martin Lipset With an Introduction by Richard C. Snyder OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY PRESS: Columbus Copyright © 1978 by the Ohio State University Press All Rights Reserved. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Boulding, Kenneth Ewart, 1910­ From abundance to scarcity. (The Hammond lectures; no. 1) CONTENTS: Boulding, K. E. The limits to progress in evolutionary systems.—Kammen, M. From scarcity to abundance—to scarcity?—Lipset, S. M. Growth, affluence, and the limits of futurology. 1. Economic history—1945—Addresses, essays, lectures. 2. Economic development—Addresses, essays, lectures. 3. Social history—1945—Addresses, essays, lectures. 4. Un­ ited States—Economic conditions—1971—Addresses, es­ says, lectures. 5. Forecasting—Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Kammen, Michael G., joint author. II. Lipset, Seymour Mar­ tin, joint author. III. Title. IV. Series. HC59.B653 330.9'047 77-16415 ISBN 0-8142-0288-8 Contents Introduction 7 By Richard C. Snyder The Limits to Progress in Evolutionary Systems 17 By Kenneth E. Boulding From Scarcity to Abundance—to Scarcity? Some Implications for the American Tradition from the Perspective of a Cultural Historian 37 By Michael Kammen Growth, Affluence, and the Limits of Futurology 65 By Seymour Martin Lipset Richard C. Snyder Introduction to the Hammond Lecture Series i The Graduate School of the Ohio State University is privileged to publish the first Hammond Lectures, which were given originally on the successive evenings of 18, 19, and 20 October 1976.
    [Show full text]
  • The Essential UCLA SCHOOL of ECONOMICS
    The Essential UCLA SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS by David R. Henderson and Steven Globerman Fraser Institute d www.fraserinstitute.org The Essential UCLA School of Economics by David R. Henderson and Steven Globerman Fraser Institute www.fraserinstitute.org 2021 Copyright © 2021 by the Fraser Institute. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. The authors of this publication have worked independently and opinions expressed by them are, therefore, their own, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Fraser Institute or its supporters, directors, or staff. This publication in no way implies that the Fraser Institute, its directors, or staff are in favour of, or oppose the passage of, any bill; or that they support or oppose any particular political party or candidate. Printed and bound in Canada Cover artwork Leslie Lightheart ISBN 978-0-88975-646-5 Contents 1 What was the UCLA School? / 1 2 Can Property Rights Help Us Understand People’s Actions and Even Reduce Conflict? / 9 3 How the Profit Motive Reduces Racial and Other Discrimination / 23 4 When Do Property Rights Come About? / 29 5 Firms Exist to Solve Problems / 33 6 The Nirvana Approach / 41 7 Does the High Market Share of a Few Companies Imply Market Power? / 51 8 Regulation: The Economics of Unintended and Intended Consequences / 63 9 Do Firms Need to Maximize for the Model to Fit? / 73 10 Can Economies Recover Quickly from Disaster? / 81 11 Concluding Comments / 89 Suggested Readings and References / 93 Publishing information / 101 About the authors / 102 Publisher’s acknowledgments / 103 Supporting the Fraser Institute / 103 Purpose, funding, and independence / 104 About the Fraser Institute / 105 Editorial Advisory Board / 106 Fraser Institute d www.fraserinstitute.org Chapter 1 What was the UCLA School? No person or group poses detailed questions of how the community is to use its resources, and no one imposes comprehensive answers to the questions.
    [Show full text]
  • Julio H. Cole Universidad Francisco Marroquín A. Books by Milton
    [Revised Draft: Sept 22, 2010] MILTON FRIEDMAN: A BIBLIOGRAPHY1 Julio H. Cole Universidad Francisco Marroquín Abstract: Milton Friedman (1912-2006) was a world-famous public intellectual, an aspect of his work that was reflected largely in popular books, such as Capitalism and Freedom (1962) and Free to Choose (1980). Even if “Friedman the public intellectual” had never existed, however, “Friedman the economic scientist” would still be renowned and respected (though perhaps not as a world-class celebrity), and his memory will live long in the lore of economics. This bibliography, the first complete listing of his scholarly output, provides an indication of the breadth of his interests and the magnitude of his contribution to economic scholarship. A. Books by Milton Friedman …………………………………………………………… 2 B. Other Publications by Milton Friedman ………………………………………………. 4 C. Published Correspondence …………………………………………………………… 26 D. Published Interviews …………………………………………………………………. 27 1This bibliography is based upon three previous published Friedman bibliographies: Niels Thygesen, “The Scientific Contributions of Milton Friedman,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 79 (1977): 84-98, Kurt Leube (ed.), The Essence of Friedman (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1987), pp. 526-51 (compiled by Gloria Valentine), and Marc Lavoie and Mario Seccareccia (eds.), Milton Friedman et son oeuvre (Montreal: Presses de l’Université de Montréal, 1993), pp. 191-24 (compiled by Gilles Dostaler). It includes books authored, co-authored or edited by Milton Friedman, introductions and forewords to books by other authors, articles in scholarly and professional journals, comments and replies, chapters in edited volumes, articles in encyclopedias and general-interest magazines, book reviews, and published interviews. It does not include articles published in newspapers or in news magazines, speeches, or testimonies to congressional committees.
    [Show full text]
  • The Wrong Way to Fight Inflation (P.9)
    Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review Spring 1978 Should we fight inflation with wage and price controls? <P.n A New Investigation of the Impact of Wage and Price Controls fp.2) TIP: The Wrong Way to Fight Inflation (p.9) District Conditions (p. 16) &M ! i!ll!fiSIIIS8iSSlIiilit!H5!BIBiI!i*S! ""'i' ImIICIIm liSISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSI lllllllllljillll!S! IHIHIUIIIIIIIII•SttSSSSSSSS2aSSSSSSSS£!.frI I ^ iilitiiiiiiifiiiii ii i i i iii iiiiiiiiiiiiiiii Hi iiUipmi it mm MffiKiii - ii iiiiijiiiiiiii ii " " tmmmmmmmm m- mm, - a » w » -- if»r,ni • r •• , . ^ H m t, , ». i n *» t* ! . i iiUfewM* ill ? : f ii . *r 1 y Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review Vol. 2, No. 2 This publication primarily presents economic research aimed at im- proving policy making by the Federal Reserve System and other gov- ernmental authorities. Produced in the Research Department. Edited by Arthur J. Rolnick, Senior Economist, and Kathleen S. Rolfe, Editor/Writer and Visuals Specialist. Graphics assistance provided by Phil Swenson and Karen Maccario, Graphic Services Department. Address requests for additional copies to the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55480. The views expressed herein are those of the authors Articles may be reprinted if the source is credited and the Research and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Department is provided with copies of reprints. Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System. TIP: The Wrong Way to Fight Inflation Preston Miller Associate Director of Research Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Most economists agree that the only proven way to TIP would cause all the distortionary and administra- fight inflation is with fiscal and monetary restraint.
    [Show full text]
  • Fulgencio Batista's Economic Policies, 1952 - 1958 Michael P
    University of Miami Scholarly Repository Open Access Dissertations Electronic Theses and Dissertations 2012-08-01 Fulgencio Batista's Economic Policies, 1952 - 1958 Michael P. McGuigan University of Miami, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarlyrepository.miami.edu/oa_dissertations Recommended Citation McGuigan, Michael P., "Fulgencio Batista's Economic Policies, 1952 - 1958" (2012). Open Access Dissertations. Paper 834. This Open access is brought to you for free and open access by the Electronic Theses and Dissertations at Scholarly Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Open Access Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholarly Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI FULGENCIO BATISTA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES, 1952 – 1958 by Michael Patrick McGuigan A DISSERTATION Submitted to the Faculty of the University of Miami in partial fulfillment of the requirements for for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Coral Gables, Florida August 2012 ©2012 Michael P. McGuigan All Rights Reserved UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy FULGENCIO BATISTA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES, 1952 – 1958 Michael P. McGuigan Approved: ________________ ________________ Steve Stein, Ph.D. M. Brian Blake, Ph.D. Professor of History Dean of the Graduate School ________________ ________________ Eduardo Elena, Ph.D. Kate Ramsey, Ph.D. Professor of History Professor of History ________________ Luis Locay, Ph.D. Professor of Economics MCGUIGAN, MICHAEL P. (Ph.D., History) Fulgencio Batista’s Economic Policies, 1952 – 1958 (August 2012) Abstract of a dissertation at the University of Miami. Dissertation supervised by Professor Steve Stein.
    [Show full text]
  • Interview with Nancy H. Teeters, Board of Governors of the Federal
    Federal Reserve Board Oral History Project Interview with Nancy H. Teeters Former Member, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Date: October 25, 2008 Location: Stamford, Connecticut Interviewers: Lynn S. Fox and Winthrop P. Hambley Federal Reserve Board Oral History Project In connection with the centennial anniversary of the Federal Reserve in 2013, the Board undertook an oral history project to collect personal recollections of a range of former Governors and senior staff members, including their background and education before working at the Board; important economic, monetary policy, and regulatory developments during their careers; and impressions of the institution’s culture. Following the interview, each participant was given the opportunity to edit and revise the transcript. In some cases, the Board staff also removed confidential FOMC and Board material in accordance with records retention and disposition schedules covering FOMC and Board records that were approved by the National Archives and Records Administration. Note that the views of the participants and interviewers are their own and are not in any way approved or endorsed by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Because the conversations are based on personal recollections, they may include misstatements and errors. ii Contents Personal and Professional Background ........................................................................................... 1 Working on Board Staff .................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]