Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation Pierre Spandre1,2, Hugues François1, Deborah Verfaillie2,3, Marc Pons4, Matthieu Vernay2, Matthieu Lafaysse2, Emmanuelle George1, and Samuel Morin2 1Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Irstea, UR LESSEM, Grenoble, France 2Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre d’Études de la Neige, Grenoble, France 3Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain 4Snow and Mountain Research Center of Andorra, IEA, Andorra Correspondence: S. Morin (
[email protected]) Abstract. Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the- art snowpack modelling and climate projections. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a 5 significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986 - 2005) and was shown to be highly impacted by the on-going climate change. The technical reliability (i.e. including snowmaking) is projected to rise by 200 m to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 m to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030 - 2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99% of ski lift infrastructures are reliable in the reference period thanks to snowmaking, a significant fraction (14% to 25%) may be considered in a hazardous situation in the near future. Beyond the mid century, climate projections highly 10 depend on the scenario with steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP2.6) or continuous decrease of snow reliability (RCP8.5).