Analysis of Twitter Usage in the 2016 São Paulo Mayoral Election
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An Election of Self-Centered Tweets: Analysis of Twitter Usage in the 2016 São Paulo Mayoral Election Claudio Luis de Camargo Penteado1 Natasha Bachini2 Tathiana Senne Chicarino3 Pedro Malina4 Denis Carneiro Lobo5 Abstract: In order to observe the uses of Twitter in the 2016 São Paulo mayoral election, this article presents a predominantly quantitative analysis of the digital campaigns carried out by the main candidates Celso Russomano (PRB); 180 Fernando Haddad (PT); João Dória (PSDB); Luiza Erundina (PSOL); Marta Suplicy (PMDB); Major Olímpio (SD) and Ricardo Young (REDE). Researchers from NEAMP (PUC/SP - Brazil) and DMRC (QUT - Australia) combined Big Data analysis techniques to verify the continuities and innovations in two main variables: (1) the current digital campaign strategies compared to previous ones and (2) the candidates/followers interactions. The results pointed to a correlation between the broadening of political issue debate on social media and the increase of personalistic contents along with the reduction of the candidate/follower interactive dialogues. Keywords: Twitter; Big data; 2016 São Paulo Mayoral Election; Digital Campaigns; Social Media Political Campaigns. 1 Phd in Social Science PUC/SP 2 Doctorate in Sociology IESP-UERJ 3 Doctorate in Social Science PUC/SP 4 Doctorate in Social Science PUC/SP 5 Master in Social Science PUC/SP Aurora: revista de arte, mídia e política, São Paulo, v.10, n.30, p. 180-199, out.2017-jan.2018 AN ELECTION OF SELF-CENTERED TWEETS (...) CLAUDIO PENTEADO, NATASHA BACHINI, TATHIANA CHICARINO, PEDRO MALINA AND DENIS LOBO Introduction This article aims to analyze the uses of Twitter in the 2016 São Paulo mayoral election. Considering the digital political marketing field of study and the conjuncture in which this election took place, we verified the digital campaign strategies’ continuities and innovations in comparison to previous elections. The 2016 São Paulo mayoral election occurred under sui generis conditions. It was strongly influenced by an economic slowdown and a serious political crisis at federal level. The economy’s poor performance at the end of President Rousseff’s first term and in the beginning of her tumultuous second term led to increased unemployment, reduced social programs budgets, and lower GDP per capita growth rates. As the economic crisis worsened, a major political crisis sprouted. The 2013 June Journeys, when millions took to the streets to protest for assorted demands, stating a crisis of traditional political representation, can be considered as an aftermath of this systemic deadlock. Undoubtedly, social media played a central role in the emergence of new forms of mass mobilization (Ruediguer et al., 2014). 181 Another phenomenon that deepened the political crisis scenario was the advance of a Federal Police (PF) investigation, named Operation Car Wash, into reports of corruption surrounding the state-run firm Petrobras, involving several politicians, mainly from the Workers’ Party (PT). Since the results of the 2014 presidential runoff, when Dilma Rousseff (PT) was re-elected by a small margin of votes – only 3%6 more than her opponent, Aécio Neves (Brazilian Social Democracy Party, PSDB) – the people was (and probably still is) politically divided, precisely by right-wing ideological radicalization on social media platforms, as pointed out Vera Chaia and Fabrício Brugnago (2014). These elements shaped the context in which Brazil experienced Rousseff’s impeachment7, following a wave of protests in several cities over the subsequent 6 Superior Electoral Court database. Available at: http://www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/estatisticas/es- tatisticas-candidaturas-2014/estatisticas-eleitorais-2014-results. Access date: February 2, 2017. 7 The impeachment was based on the accusation that the federal government borrowed money from public banks – which is forbidden by the Fiscal Responsibility Law – to pay for social pro- grams. The Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) announced in 2015 that it had rejected Rousseff’s accounts administration for the year 2014, arguing she allegedly committed an administrative crime. Aurora: revista de arte, mídia e política, São Paulo, v.10, n.30, p. 180-199, out.2017-jan.2018 AN ELECTION OF SELF-CENTERED TWEETS (...) CLAUDIO PENTEADO, NATASHA BACHINI, TATHIANA CHICARINO, PEDRO MALINA AND DENIS LOBO years. In these outcries, Penteado and Guerbali (2016) identified social media platforms, specifically Twitter, as new-media spaces for political dispute and meaningful recruitment between the pro and anti-president groups. Throughout this period of time, social media platforms were crucial for understanding society’s attention and reaction to this process. The contest on all these events unfolded in an inflamed way on the Web, both with regards to politicians’ advocacy, and the showdown between political positions. Exempt from the necessary face-to-face civil contact and encouraged by their “algorithmic bubbles” (Bauman, 2005), citizens promoted a virtual warfare with the aim of publicizing their political positions, which resulted, among other things, in the propagation of hate speech (Dos Santos, 2015). The main candidates for the 2016 São Paulo mayoral election were as follows: (1) the incumbent Fernando Haddad (Workers’ Party - PT); (2) businessman and adman João Dória (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB); (3) federal representative and journalist Celso Russomano (Party of the Republic - PRB); (4) former São Paulo mayor from 2001 to 2005, Marta Suplicy (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party - PMDB); (5) former São Paulo mayor from 1989 182 to 1993, Luiza Erundina (Socialism and Liberty Party - PSOL); (6) businessman and former city councillor Ricardo Young (Sustainability Network - REDE); and (7) the federal representative and retired military police officer, Major Olímpio (Solidarity - SD). Election polls first placed Celso Russomano (PRB) in the lead, taking 33% of mayoral voting intention8. Nevertheless, just as in the previous race, his candidacy was losing approval and other candidates from larger parties began to climb in the polls, such as João Dória (PSDB), Marta Suplicy (PMDB), and Fernando Haddad (PT). At the end of the campaign, João Dória (PSDB), who started with lower voting intention, was elected in the first round with 3,085,187 votes (53.29%), followed by incumbent mayor Fernando Haddad (PT), with 16.7% of the votes9. 8 Ibope Research (August 23, 2016); Available at: http://g1.globo.com/sao-paulo/eleicoes/2016/ noticia/2016/08/russomanno-tem-33-e-marta-17-na-disputa-prefeitura-de-sp-diz -ibope.html. Access date: February 2, 2017. 9 São Paulo Regional Electoral Court Database. Available at: http://www.tre-sp.jus.br/eleicoes/ eleicoes-2016/eleicoes-2016. Access date: February 2, 2017. Aurora: revista de arte, mídia e política, São Paulo, v.10, n.30, p. 180-199, out.2017-jan.2018 AN ELECTION OF SELF-CENTERED TWEETS (...) CLAUDIO PENTEADO, NATASHA BACHINI, TATHIANA CHICARINO, PEDRO MALINA AND DENIS LOBO AN ELECTION OF SELF-CENTERED TWEETS (...) CLAUDIO PENTEADO, NATASHA BACHINI, TATHIANA CHICARINO, PEDRO MALINA AND DENIS LOBO In order to study Twitter usage as a new-media space for political rivalries, social mobilization and party platform advertisement, the article presents an analysis of the digital campaigns conducted by the main São Paulo mayoral candidates. Tableau and Gephi software assisted the collection and analysis of the tweets on the candidates’ official accounts from September 6 to October 13. The election occurred on October 2, 2016. Besides this introduction, the article is structured into the following four sections: (1) a brief bibliographic review of digital political marketing studies; (2) an overview of our methods; (3) the presentation of the results; (4) and conclusions and recommendations. Digital political marketing The rapid expansion of Internet use and the popularization of social media platforms have drawn political communication researchers’ attention to management shifts in electoral campaigns. Patrícia Rossini (2015) points out that the academic studies on digital electoral campaigns have been in existence 183 for three decades already. In Brazil, this field of study has gained momentum since the 2000s, with the growth in Internet access. Jennifer Stromer-Galley (2014) notes that digital campaigns were initially less interactive and actually functioned as a repository for advertisements produced for mass media circulation. From the experience of Howard Dean, a primary Democratic contender for the 2004 presidential race, the intensive and interactive use of social media in political campaigns has gained more relevance, especially in relation to US electoral fundraising (Hindman, 2005; Stromer- Galley, 2014). However, Barack Obama’s first winning campaign revealed the efficient use of Internet resources, and that fact can be considered the turning point of digital marketing for political campaigns (Gomes et al., 2009), inaugurating a new phase in which the Internet and its devices received greater space and budget within campaign management. The use of the Internet in electoral campaigns is correlated with the advancement of information and communication technologies (ICT), as well as its appropriation by World Wide Web users. In the development of political Aurora: revista de arte, mídia e política, São Paulo, v.10, n.30, p. 180-199, out.2017-jan.2018 AN ELECTION OF SELF-CENTERED TWEETS (...) CLAUDIO PENTEADO, NATASHA BACHINI, TATHIANA CHICARINO, PEDRO MALINA AND DENIS LOBO marketing