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Michael Kramer, Morton Kondracke, Robert Bartley The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, U.S. Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. If a user makes a request for, or later uses a photocopy or reproduction (including handwritten copies) for purposes in excess of fair use, that user may be liable for copyright infringement. Users are advised to obtain permission from the copyright owner before any re-use of this material. Use of this material is for private, non-commercial, and educational purposes; additional reprints and further distribution is prohibited. Copies are not for resale. All other rights are reserved. For further information, contact Director, Hoover Institution Library and Archives, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-6010. © Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Jr. University. GUESTS: MICHAEL KRAMER, MORTON KONDRACKE, ROBERT BARTLEY SUBJECT: #440 "THE NEW POLITICAL OUTLOOK" SOUTHERN EDUCATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS ASSOCIATION SECA PRESENTS (@) I GLlne HOST: WILLIAM F. BUCKLEY JR. GUESTS: MICHAEL KRAMER, MORTON KONDRACKE, ROBERT BARTLEY SUBJECT: #440 "THE NEW POLITICAL OUTLOOK" FIRING LINE is produced and directed by WARREN STEIBEL. The FIRING LINE television series is a production of the Southern Educational Communications Association, 928 Woodrow St., P.O. Box 5966, Columbia, S.C., This FIRING LINE program was taped in New York 29250 ard ," transmitted through the facilities of the Public Broadcasting Service. City on November 24, 1980, and originally telecast Production of these programs is made possible through a grant from the by PBS on November 30, 1980. Corporation for Public Broadcasting. FIRING LINE can be seen and heard each week through public television and radio stations throughout the country. Check your local newspapers for channel and time in your area. SOUTHERN EDUCATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS ASSOCIATION © Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Jr. University. MR. BUCKLEY: We have here today, to meditate the effects of the national election, three well-known and influential journalists, although the combined influence of two of them proved insufficient to deny the presidency to Ronald Reagan. On the other hand, our third guest is at peace with democracy right now, even if he declines to view the event as chiliastic. Michael Kramer, familiar to viewers of this program, is the national political writer for New York magazine. He is a graduate of Amherst and of the Columbia Law School, the author of two books, and publisher and editor-in-chief of More magazine before its unhappy demise. Morton Kondracke, the executive editor of the New Republic, urged all of the New Republic's readers to vote for John Anderson. It is probably safe to say that all of them did. (laughter) Mr. Kondracke normally covers foreign and defense policy, but in 1980 assigned himself the job of covering the elections. Before joining the New Republic, he was White House correspondent for the Chicago Sun Times. He is a graduate of Dartmouth College and has served as a Nieman Fellow. Robert Bartley is the editor of the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal and a year ago was given a Pulitzer prize in--­ recognition of the splendor of his prose and the nObility of his sentiments. (laughter) He is a graduate of Iowa State University and did post-graduate work at the University of Wisconsin before © 1980 SOUTHERN EDUCATIONAL going into journalism. COMMUNICATIONS ASSOCIATION I should like to begin by asking Mr. Kondracke to comment on a statement in the New Republic in the issue before the election, namely, "Though I have been irrepressibly free with predictions throughout this political year, the outcome is too close to call." MR. KONDRACKE: Well, that was written on Wednesday before the Tuesday of the election, and at that point, it seemed too close to call. On Friday, of course, and Saturday I told my wife that there was going to be a landslide for Reagan. Of course, nobody can prove that I didn't, and nobody can prove that I did. No, I-- MR. BUCKLEY: Under the new regime, the FBI might inquire about it, right? (laughter) MR. KONDRACKE: Well, the tapes will be played at some point. (laughter) It seemed too close to call. All the polls and the other methods that people use to anticipate how the election was going to come out made it seem too close to call in terms of popular vote, and indeed the exit polls on election day.jndicate that people really--a lot of people--really did change their minds over the last weekend when Iran blew up again as a crisis reminding everyone of the failures of the Carter administration and, more than that, the failures of the United States to control its destiny and the destiny of the world--and so, I think, on Tuesday they said no. MR. BUCKLEY: In other words, that you were right on Wednesday. (laughter) 1 nd Stanford Jr. University. I MR. BUCKLEY: You can say, "You were the only enthusiastic person." MR. KONDRACKE: I think so. MR. KONDRACKE: I wasn't enthusiastic about anybody, and I know I very few people who were enthusiastic about anybody. Of course, MR. BUCKLEY: Let's dispose once and for all of the question: Does I tend to know more Democrats than you do, and Democrats had less anybody here suspect that there is ideological tendentiousness on reason to be enthusiastic but nonetheless, I detected less the part of any of the poll takers. Do you, Michael? enthusiasm on the part of both--for both candidates--on the part of the electorate. MR. KRAMER: I don't know. I, like everyone else, have watched the pollsters throughout the entire period get it wrong in many MR. BARTLEY: I think there were a lot of people who kind of ways, and I'm not exactly sure why. I think I tend to disagree subconsciously knew how they were going to vote but weren't with Morton's assessment that people were changing their minds in ready to admit it to themselves yet. those last few days. I think we knew there was a large undecided vote, and I think most of it was breaking for Reagan and was not MR. BUCKLEY: To themselves or to the pollsters? measurable at that point--although Caddell and Wirthlin seemed to pick it up, too, right at the end so that Carter could be let MR. BARTLEY: To themselves and therefore not to the pollsters. in on the fact that he was going to lose before the election. But And these are the people who "made up their minds" in the last I don't-- I'm sorry. weekend of the campaign. MR. BUCKLEY: Might there be this explanation? That pollsters MR. KONDRACKE: Bill Brock makes a very good point--the Repub­ tend to represent the sort of verbalized majority? They are lican National Chairman--and that is that all of those approval spoken to as one would speak to one's teacher, so to speak, ratings showed--which were very low for Carter--showed what the and that some of the pro-Reagan sentiment was surreptitious on pUblic really thought about Carter. And they knew they didn't the grounds that your local union didn't want you to vote for like him if they could be presented with an alternative that Reagan or your local professor was against it or the National seemed acceptable, and they didn't really know up until the very Association for Teachers was against it or whatever. Might-there end--until in fact the debate when they saw the two of them be a combination there of a failure by the polltaker to penetrate matched up against each other,-that it was an acceptable and safe that resistance, but also an acknowledgment of such resistance? thing to do to rest the country's future in Ronald Reagan, and once they saw the two of them matched up, they did. MR. K~MER: I don't know. I doubt it. I think that in the talking that I did--and I know Morton and I both went out and did MR. BARTLEY: Or to look at it another way, on the basis of door-to-door polling such as it was-- the policies and the results, here was an electorate that was ready to turn Carter out--turn out the incumbent--and he ran MR. KONDRACKE: And it was totally wrong. Totally wrong. against that with the most logical kind of campaign, which is to portray your opponent as a menace to civilization, and made a MR. KR~ER: ~-during the campaign--I didn't find any reluctance certain amount of progress with that kind of campaign; but then on anyone's part to express a willingness to vote for Reagan if it came apart at the time of the debates and people went back to in fact they felt that. what they were going to do anyway. I just got a note the other day from a friend of mine in England who remembered that I had MR. BUCKLEY: Did you notice that there were fewer campaign but­ told him in June that Reagan was going to carry 45 states; and kind tons in this election, or was that-- of after the hostage crists I was coming back to that opinion, but I was awfully nervous in between. MR. K~MER: There were fewer campaign buttons because-- MR. BUCKLEY: Since we've touched on the subject of the debate-- MR. BUCKLEY: And there were fewer bumper stickers too. I have that down as one of the things to discuss: Is it--I wasn't here, as it happens, at the time--Is it generally conceded that MR.
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