Adenostoma Fasciculatum (Chamise), Arctostaphylos Canescens (Hoary Manzanita), and Arctostaphylos Virgata (Marin Manzanita) Alison S
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The University of San Francisco USF Scholarship: a digital repository @ Gleeson Library | Geschke Center Master's Projects and Capstones Theses, Dissertations, Capstones and Projects 5-20-2016 Preserving Biodiversity for a Climate Change Future: A Resilience Assessment of Three Bay Area Species--Adenostoma fasciculatum (Chamise), Arctostaphylos canescens (Hoary Manzanita), and Arctostaphylos virgata (Marin Manzanita) Alison S. Pollack University of San Francisco, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.usfca.edu/capstone Part of the Biodiversity Commons, Biology Commons, Botany Commons, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, and the Other Environmental Sciences Commons Recommended Citation Pollack, Alison S., "Preserving Biodiversity for a Climate Change Future: A Resilience Assessment of Three Bay Area Species-- Adenostoma fasciculatum (Chamise), Arctostaphylos canescens (Hoary Manzanita), and Arctostaphylos virgata (Marin Manzanita)" (2016). Master's Projects and Capstones. 352. https://repository.usfca.edu/capstone/352 This Project/Capstone is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses, Dissertations, Capstones and Projects at USF Scholarship: a digital repository @ Gleeson Library | Geschke Center. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Projects and Capstones by an authorized administrator of USF Scholarship: a digital repository @ Gleeson Library | Geschke Center. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 1 This Master's Project Preserving Biodiversity for a Climate Change Future: A Resilience Assessment of Three Bay Area Species--Adenostoma fasciculatum (Chamise), Arctostaphylos canescens (Hoary Manzanita), and Arctostaphylos virgata (Marin Manzanita) by Alison S. Pollack is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of: Master of Science in Environmental Management at the University of San Francisco Submitted: Received: ................................…………. ................................…………. Alison S. Pollack 5/18/16 Tracy L. Benning, ph.D. 5/18/16 2 3 Table of Contents i Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... 6 ii Key Words ................................................................................................................................... 7 iiii Roadmap .................................................................................................................................... 7 I Introduction and Background ....................................................................................................... 8 Introduction to Climate Change ............................................................................................ 8 1.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 8 1.2 Projections ....................................................................................................................................... 8 1.3 Trajectory ...................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Climate Change–Vegetation Overview ........................................................................................ 12 2.2 Succession ..................................................................................................................................... 13 2.3 Species Vulnerability ..................................................................................................................... 14 2.4 Physiology of Climate Resilient Vegetation ................................................................................. 14 2.5 Geography, Risk, Sensitivity .......................................................................................................... 16 2.6 Chaparral and Coastal Scrub Ecosystems .................................................................................... 18 2.7 Chaparral and Coastal Scrub ........................................................................................................ 20 2.8 Nutrients ........................................................................................................................................ 21 3.1 Introduction to Chosen Species ................................................................................................... 21 3.2 Chamise ......................................................................................................................................... 21 3.3 Manzanita ...................................................................................................................................... 23 3.4 Hoary Manzanita ........................................................................................................................... 23 3.5 Marin Manzanita ......................................................................................................................... 25 3.6 Study Area .................................................................................................................. 28 3.7 Rare Plants ..................................................................................................................................... 30 3.8 Refugia ........................................................................................................................................... 30 3.9 Assisted Migration ........................................................................................................................ 32 II Objective ................................................................................................................................... 33 III Methods .................................................................................................................................... 34 IV Results...................................................................................................................................... 37 4.1 Recruitment................................................................................................................................... 37 Seed bank ............................................................................................................................................ 39 4.2 Fire Risk ......................................................................................................................................... 42 4.3 Temperature exposure risk .......................................................................................................... 48 4.4 Water uptake risk .......................................................................................................................... 57 4.5 Plant Height ................................................................................................................................... 64 4.6 Potential Refugia ........................................................................................................................... 65 V Discussion ................................................................................................................................. 68 5.1 Synthesis of Results ...................................................................................................... 68 5.2 Disclaimer ..................................................................................................................... 69 5.3 Other Factors ................................................................................................................. 70 VI Recommendations.................................................................................................................... 71 VII Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 74 IX Appendix-Tools for determining Vulnerability/Resilience ..................................................... 75 X Works Cited .............................................................................................................................. 77 4 List of Figures Figure 1 Evidence of Climate Change……………………………………………….………………………….……………..6 Figure 2 Climate Change Projections………………………………………………………….…………………….…………7 Figure 3 Palmer Drought Severity Index as of February 2016…………………….………………….……………8 Figure 4 Climate Change Projections for Northern California…………………….……………………………….8 Figure 5 Percent Vegetation Cover by Region……………………………………………………………………..……10 Figure 6 Venn Diagram of sensitivity vs. risk…………………………………………….…………………….…………14 Figure 7 Chaparral Distribution Map of California……………………………………………………………..……..15 Figure 8 Sprouting Categories……………………………………………………………………………………………………17 Figure 9 Adenostoma fasciculatum (Chamise)…………………………………………………….……………………18 Figure 10 Genus Distribution…………………………………………………..………………………………………………..19 Figure 11 Arctostaphylos canescens (Hoary Manzanita)…………………………………………….……….…….19 Figure 12 Arctostaphylos virgata (Marin Manzanita)……………………………………………..…….……….….21 Figure 13 Status and Management Recommendations for A. virgata………………………………………..26 Figure 14 Species Distribution Map……………………………………………………………………………………………27 Figure 15 Study Area Microclimate Map……………………………………………………………………………………28 Figure 16 A. fasciculatum Seed…………………………………………………………………………………………………..36