PLYMOUTH SHOPPING STUDY
ON BEHALF OF
PLYMOUTH CITY COUNCIL
AUGUST 2006
CUSHMAN & W AKEFIELD 43/45 PORTMAN SQUARE LONDON W 1A 3BG
TELEPHONE: 020 7935 5000 FACSIMILE: 020 7152 5392
W W W .CUSHMANW AKEFIELD.COM
Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006
CONTENTS PAGE NUMBER
Executive Summary 3
1. Study Brief & Scope of Report ...... 10 2. Overview of Planning Policy Framework...... 13 3. National Shopping Patterns...... 26 4. Overview of Previous Retail Assessments...... 30 5. Retailing in Plymouth: an Audit...... 41 6. Quantitative Capacity Assessment...... 59 7. Retailer Demand...... 76 8. SWOT Analysis of Plymouth ...... 78 9. Opportunity Sites Analysis...... 82 10. Strategy Options...... 98 11. Implementation ...... 108 12. Summary & Conclusion ...... 111
Appendices
1. Plans of study/survey area; 2. Household survey questionnaire; 3. Surveys per zone; 4. Survey results; 5. Quantitative assessment: convenience goods 6. Location plan of main food stores; 7. Quantitative assessment: comparison goods 8. District and Local Centres, floor space and turnover estimate; 9. Location plan of District and Local centres; 10. Retail warehouse parks, and tenants; 11. Location plan of warehouse parks; 12. Calculation of quantitative capacity; 13. Focus retailer demand summary; 14. Retailer demand questionnaires; 15. Plans of opportunity sites;
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Scope of Study
Cushman & Wakefield were instructed by Plymouth City Council in January 2006 to under-take a City-wide assessment of retailing within Plymouth, and to provide advice on the likely requirement for additional retail facilities in the period up to 2016 (with an overview to 2026). This reflects the anticipated life expectancy of the Council’s emerging Local Development framework which we understand has an end-date of 2021, and also has regard to a longer time horizon of 2026 consistent with the Regional Spatial Strategy.
The Retail Hierarchy
Plymouth is identified as a shopping location of sub-regional importance in the relevant planning policy framework, with Exeter being afforded the same status.
Within Plymouth the City Centre shopping core is dominant in terms of comparison shopping. A network of district, local and out of centre facilities (retail parks and stand- alone stores) play a complementary role. In terms of convenience shopping the position is generally the reverse, with the large food stores in out of centre, district and local centre locations serving the majority of the main convenience goods shopping needs of the City.
There are some apparent spatial and other deficiencies in the pattern of provision across the City, and this is one of the matters the Shopping Study considers.
The City’s Growth and Sustainable Communities Agenda
These two agendas provide an important context for the Shopping Study, and one that has not been addressed in previous studies for the Council.
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In terms of the City’s agenda for growth, if fully realised this could result in the creation of 42,000 jobs in the period up to 2026, and the provision of about 24,500 new dwellings (the Council’s 2005 LDF Annual Progress Report suggests that at least 10,000 of these may be delivered by 2016). In addition, it is anticipated a new community of about 5,500 dwellings will be created to the East of the City at Sherford, and more limited (but still significant) new dwelling provision of about 1,000 dwellings to the West of the City at Saltash and Torpoint. This could in time lead to a City with a population of over 300,000 people. Therefore, anticipated population growth over and above recent trend has been included within the quantitative assessment.
The second agenda strand for the City is to ensure that all of the communities within the City have access to the shopping facilities that they need in a sustainable way. There has been recognition that some areas of the City (both in terms of existing and anticipated population levels) have deficiencies in the provision of shopping facilities, and moreover facilities to serve the wider needs of those communities. The City Council is keen to explore the extent to which retail development can help assist in the delivery of the ‘sustainable communities’ agenda.
Overview of Previous Retail Assessments
In recent years three retail assessments have been prepared for the City Council by external consultants, in 2000, 2001 and 2004. The year 2000 assessment was based upon survey evidence, and amongst other recommendations advised the Council that there would be sufficient quantitative capacity for the Drake Circus redevelopment scheduled to open in 2006. This was reaffirmed in the year 2001 assessment.
The year 2004 assessment focused upon shopping provision in district and local centres across the City, in particular convenience (food store) facilities. Using a defined methodology certain areas of the City were assessed as being deficient, including Devonport, Weston Mill and North Plymouth (Derriford). One of the Council’s objectives is to address these deficiencies.
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At the end of 2005 DTZ Pieda produced an assessment of retail need for the South West Region. Whilst only a broad-brush analysis the study did confirm previous assessments that quantitative capacity would exist going forward, due to expenditure growth per capita and anticipated population growth.
The Cushman & W akefield 2006 Assessment
This latest shopping study has been based upon a completely new household shopper survey (of 2000 respondents) utilising the same study area as the previous survey work in 1999 and 2000. This follows the best practice advice in PPS6; moreover, it will enable the Council to accurately assess the effects of the opening of the Drake Circus development on shopping patterns in Plymouth by re-surveying in a few years time.
The shopper survey results have been applied to bespoke population and expenditure data supplied by Experian, an industry recognised source for such. Having made the usual deductions for special forms of trading, the assessment indicates the following position for shopping at 2006 in the City (all in 2003 prices); Convenience goods: Total available expenditure £383.2m 1 Turnover of main food stores £251.63m (from residents of City only) Market share 65% Remainder for smaller shops, district & local centres £91.37m
Leakage to stores outside Plymouth £40.2m (including £29.7m to Tesco at Lee Mill) Quantitative capacity at 2006 £75.98m2 Growth in expenditure at (cumulative): 2011 £17.22m 2016 £37.48m 2021 £79.95m 2026 £116.91m
1. Main food stores comprise: Asda Estover, Morrisons Outlands Road, Morrisons Plymstock, Sainsbury Armada Centre, Sainsbury Marsh Mills, Somerfield Plymstock, Tesco Metro New George Street, Tesco Honicknowle and Tesco Roborough; 2. Based on over-trading in main stores;
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Comparison goods: Total available expenditure in study area £1,245m Turnover of Plymouth City Centre £637.05m Market share 51.1% Turnover of District & Local Centres £125.14m Market Share 10% Turnover of out of centre facilities £155.68m Market share 12.5% Combined Market Share 73.7% Quantitative capacity at 2006 £120.67m Expenditure capacity at (cumulative)3: 2011 £158.43m 2016 £428.77m 2021 £859.27m 2026 £1,442.54m 3. These calculations are cumulative, and take into account efficiency on existing floor space at 1.5% per annum, commitments, and assume a per capita comparison goods expenditure growth rate of 4.3% per annum;
Analysis
In terms of convenience goods, it is evident there are some stores that over-trade relatively significantly. Some of these are in out of centre locations. There is therefore the potential to ‘rebalance the network’ by the provision of additional floor space, particularly in areas of deficiency.
Our analysis indicates that new convenience stores, capable of attracting main food shopping trips, could be located in the Weston Mill and Derriford areas. Better provision is also needed in the Devonport area to serve the needs of that community.
In terms of comparison goods, we calculate that the City Centre is trading at about 20% above the bench mark level that could be expected for a City such as Plymouth. In terms of the indicators of vitality and viability in PPS6 the City Centre is therefore generally healthy, although does and will continue to experience competition from competing
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centres, particularly Exeter. The Drake Circus development will help Plymouth to respond to this competition. It will help Plymouth to increase it’s market share from the study area, and reflects quantitative capacity (assuming a market share uplift) at 2006.
Up to 2011 there will be capacity for additional comparison floor space. Beyond 2011 there will be a growing capacity for additional floor space over and above this, as a function of expenditure growth per capita and expenditure growth. We have assumed a constant market share going forward, although were Plymouth able to increase its market share through qualitative improvements in its retail offer this could have an upward effect on these forecasts. However, given current market share (81% including Drake Circus) the scope for this may be limited.
By 2016 there should be capacity for further significant development in the City, or a number of more modest developments. This could be of the order of scale of two Drake Circus developments. For out of centre development it might equate to four ‘Marsh Mills’ developments. By 2021 the capacity potential doubles from 2016, and by 2026 increases by half as much again, although it should be recognised that these forecasts are very indicative at this stage.
SW OT Analysis of Plymouth City Centre
Strengths W eaknesses Legible, pedestrianised shopping streets Limited range of higher quality retail fascias Low vacancy rate Poor unit configuration Drake Circus will introduce new retailers Drake Circus will shift retail gravity Good accessibility Visual disrepair of buildings Opportunities Threats Drake Circus will enhance market share Limited retailer demand to fill vacancies & provide high quality retail space Period of time for ‘consolidation’ required Pressure for out of centre or competing & will create opportunities for other traders development within Plymouth & will enhance the built environment Continued competition from other centres
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Opportunity Sites Analysis & Recommendations
Bearing in mind the City’s identified strengths and weaknesses, a number of site opportunities have been assessed, and the potential for these to address any shortcomings and also meet the Council’s other goals and agendas.
Millbay is an area of significant development potential, given it’s water-side setting. As part of mixed-use development, some retail development, primarily serving the needs of the immediate community and perhaps tourists could be considered. However, we anticipate that this location would operate as a separate trading destination notwithstanding the relatively close proximity of the City Centre core. In light of our analysis we therefore recommend limited additional comparison shopping floor space is permitted in this location, that any such provision should be complementary to other uses such as leisure and catering, and that if possible the nature of the retailing is controlled to reflect the needs of tourists and water-based activities.
Devonport is clearly deficient in convenience shopping facilities, and the Marlborough Street local centre evidently struggles to serve the needs of the community. A new neighbourhood food store is, in our view, a relatively high priority for the area as previous studies have indicated. We understand an application is now with the Council.
Likewise the Weston Mill area of the City is not well served in terms of main food shopping facilities, although we anticipate that St Budeaux does meet some of the top-up shopping requirements of the area. It would be appropriate to locate this new provision in the existing district centre, but we understand that there are no sites in that centre that are available, suitable or viable for development for main food shopping purposes. In this event, the Council could consider identifying a site for a new district centre in the Weston Mill area, anchored by a food store of between 1,500 and 2,000sq.m. net convenience sales area, with car parking.
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Derriford is now a major centre of employment in the City (the hospital, the business park), and yet there is a dearth of facilities for the daytime service needs of these workers. Moreover, the existing and anticipated residential communities are not well served by the existing spatial pattern of centres. In short, there is a gap in provision at Derriford. We consider that the Council could seek to address this deficiency with the designation of a site for a district centre, anchored by a food store with complementary comparison offer and service uses. In the long-term this centre may have scope to grow, although it is important that any additional retail floor space is complementary to the function of the City Centre, and does not harm it’s vitality and viability. Correspondingly, it is possible that some centres in the City e.g. Crownhill, should be reclassified in the retail hierarchy, either to reflect the position now or the anticipated status of those centres over the plan period.
Significant residential development is anticipated in the areas to the East of the City, at Plymstock Quarry and at Sherford (in South Hams district). Our assessment indicates that a new neighbourhood food store could be appropriate at Plymstock Quarry, on the basis it would mostly compete with the out of centre Morrisons store. However, any proposal should be accompanied by a detailed assessment of the likely effects on the stores within Plymstock Broadway. We consider that any comparison floor space provided in this area should be located at Sherford (with the additional convenience retailing, as appropriate to serve the new community), where we understand the majority of the new housing in the area is planned. However, again any such provision should be complementary to Plymstock Broadway, and other nearby centres such as Plympton Ridgeway.
The City’s main out of centre shopping location is the three retail parks North of the A38 at Marsh Mills. Although our analysis indicates that significant further development here is unlikely to be justified we do consider that investment could be beneficial if it can be used to address recognised qualitative deficiencies in the area, such as accessibility. We recommend the Council therefore consider a separate policy designation for this area, making explicit the limitations to further development (including the need to restrict sales to certain retail formats) and the concomitant expectations on any investment.
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1 STUDY BRIEF & SCOPE OF REPORT
1.1 Cushman & Wakefield were instructed by Plymouth City Council in January 2006 to undertake a City-wide assessment of shopping in Plymouth, and to provide advice on the likely requirement for additional retail facilities in the period up to 2016 (and with an overview to 2026), corresponding to the expected life span of the emerging Regional Spatial Strategy for the South West of England. The scope of our instructions also includes providing advice to the City Council in relation to policy formulation having regard to the findings of our assessment.
1.2 Previous shopping studies were undertaken for the City Council in September 2000, December 2001 and November 2004 by CB Hillier Parker/CB Richard Ellis. However, all of these assessments were based upon survey work undertaken in 1999 and 2000, and having regard to the requirements of Chapter 4 of PPS6 it is considered that an entirely new study is required based on fresh, up to-date survey evidence. Undertaking a new survey at this time also offers the City Council the advantage of being able to assess more accurately the effects of the Drake Circus development in Plymouth City Centre after that scheme opens towards the end of 2006.
1.3 Given our terms of reference our report is structured as follows: • Chapter 2 comprises an overview of the planning policy framework for the City; • Chapter 3 is an overview of national shopping patterns and trends; • Chapter 4 is a review of the previous retail assessments undertaken for the Council, and also the recent work undertaken by DTZ for the South West of England Regional Authority; • Chapter 5 comprises an audit of retailing in Plymouth, including the consideration of health check information for both the City Centre and District and Local Centres (where available), out of centre facilities, and commitments. This chapter also includes a benchmarking exercise comparing Plymouth City Centre with other similar Centres within the region;
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• Chapter 6 sets out our quantitative capacity assessment; • Chapter 7 assesses retailer demand across the City including the results of a wide ranging retailer survey; • Chapter 8 draws together information from earlier chapters in the form of a SWOT analysis for interests of acknowledged retail importance across the City; • Chapter 9 assesses in detail various site opportunities across the City that have been identified in discussions with the City Council; • Chapter 10 presents advice on a range of policy strategy options; • Chapter 11 considers the implementation of these strategy options; and • Chapter 12 summarises our overall findings.
1.4 This report was first published as an Interim Final Draft in April 2006, for the purposes of public consultation along with changes to the Council’s Core Strategy Preferred Options Key Changes. Following the consultation period our report findings were presented to the retail community in early June when queries were dealt with in a question and answer session. Following a series of one to one meetings, and also a review of representations submitted during the consultation phase, various modifications have been made to the final version of this report as published, including several changes to the retail capacity figures. None of these modifications significantly change the overall report findings and recommendations.
1.5 It should be noted that whilst this assessment is intended to be comprehensive, it has not been prepared in such a way as to address every detailed retail planning issue arising out of all development proposals (either the subject of applications or not) throughout the City. Rather, the assessment enables the City Council to plan for the future of retail provision in broad terms for convenience and comparison floor space over the plan period.
1.6 The report does consider some relatively detailed site opportunities for potential convenience shopping provision. However, the general focus of the report is on
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comparison shopping. In this way, this assessment is intended to replace the work of CBHP/CBRE (see section 4) from 2000 and 2001, but to supplement the 2004 study. In due course further, more detailed assessment of individual proposals may be required, in support of individual planning applications.
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2 PLANNING POLICY FRAMEW ORK
2.1 We set out below an analysis of the planning policy framework from National down to local level relevant to retail planning matters across the City.
National Planning Policy
2.2 The Government’s primary policy on retail matters is set out in PPS6: Planning for Town Centres published in March 2005.
2.3 The Government’s policy is to focus on town centres and to promote their vitality and viability. Hence, the Government’s key objective is: • planning for the growth and development of existing Centres; • promoting and enhancing existing Centres by focusing development in such Centres, encouraging a wide range of services in a good environment, accessible to all.
2.4 Having said this, the document confirms that the Government has a number of other objectives which are: • enhancing consumer choice by making provision for a range of shopping, leisure and local services, which allow genuine choice to meet the needs of the entire community, and particularly socially excluded groups; • supporting efficient, competitive and innovative retail, leisure, tourism and other sectors, with improving productivity; • improving accessibility, ensuring that existing or new development is, or will be, accessible and well served by a choice of means of transport.
2.5 Lastly, the document confirms a number of the Government’s other objectives are relevant including: • to promote social inclusion; • to encourage investment to regenerate deprived areas;
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• create employment; • improve the physical environment; • to deliver more sustainable patterns of development; and • to promote high quality and inclusive design.
2.6 In implementing these objectives the Government confirms that regional and local planning authorities should therefore: • develop a hierarchy and network of centres; • assess the need for further main town centre uses and ensure there is capacity to accommodate them; • focus development in, and plan for the expansion of existing centres; • regularly monitor and review the impact and effectiveness of their policies.
2.7 PPS6 goes on to confirm that once established, over time the hierarchy and network centres will be dynamic and may change. This should be planned for, including growth in some centres and decline in others. In addition, authorities should identify and address any existing deficiencies in the hierarchy and network. This will include, if appropriate, the need to rebalance the network of centres to make sure it is not overly dominated by the larger centres.
2.8 Paragraph 2.14 says that the need for major town centre development of regional or sub-regional importance should be addressed in the regional spatial strategy. New out of centre regional or sub-regional shopping centres can have a substantial impact over a wide area and can harm the vitality and viability of the existing centres within the catchment of the proposed development. Having regard to the key objective of the Government’s town centre policy, it is unlikely that such a new development or the expansion of existing out of centre regional or sub-regional shopping centres will meet the requirements of that policy.
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2.9 In assessing the need for additional development at the local level, planning authorities are advised in paragraph 2.34 of PPS6 to have regard to a realistic assessment of: • existing and forecast population levels; • forecast expenditure for specific classes of goods to be sold within the broad categories of comparison and convenience goods and for main leisure sectors; • forecast improvements in productivity in the use of floor space.
2.10 PPS6 confirms a range of quantitative indicators should also be taken into account, including the extent to which existing shops may be over-trading (paragraph 2.36). Paragraph 2.41 confirms that in relation to the scale of development, the aim should be to locate the appropriate type and scale of development in the right type of centre, to ensure that it fits into that centre and that it complements its role and function.
2.11 Paragraph 2.42 goes on to say that given their characteristics, local centres will generally be inappropriate locations for large scale new development, even when a flexible approach is adopted.
2.12 Paragraphs 2.44-2.47 confirm that in identifying appropriate sites for allocations a sequential approach should be applied. Town centre sites within centres at the appropriate level in the hierarchy for any given scale of development are the preferred first option. Out of centre sites are the least preferred option, and of these preference should be given to those which are well served by a choice of means of transport, are close to other similar uses and or are in deprived areas.
2.13 Paragraph 2.48 confirms that where the potential development of a site or sites proposed to be allocated in a centre would substantially increase the attraction of the centre and could have an impact on other centres, the impact on other
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centres will also need to be assessed. In other words, sites should be thoroughly assessed before they are finally allocated in plans.
2.14 Paragraph 2.53 confirms that new centres should be designated in the plan making process where the need for them has been established e.g. such as in areas of significant growth, or where there are deficiencies in the existing network of centres. Whether this is done on a regional or local level will depend on the size of the proposed centre and its proposed role in the hierarchy of centres.
Regional Planning Guidance for the South W est
2.15 The adopted Regional Planning Guidance for the South West is RPG10 published in September 2001. The document sets out a broad development strategy for the period to 2016 and beyond (Paragraph 1.2).
2.16 Paragraph 3.51 onwards addresses issues within Plymouth. It is noted that Plymouth is the main urban centre in the west of the region and that it is a major employment and defence centre with a long tradition as a naval and commercial port, as well as benefiting from holiday trade. It is noted however that there have been substantial job losses in the defence sector and there are serious pockets of urban deprivation. The overall economy is low wage and there is a continuing need to diversify the City’s economic base.
2.17 Bearing this and various RPG objectives in mind, policy SS17 sets out a number of objectives for the City. These include encouraging investment to support diversification of the City’s economy, and strengthen its role as the primary commercial centre for the sub-region, and to accommodate as much of the City’s future growth needs as possible within the city through the development of brownfield land, conversions of existing buildings, the redevelopment of appropriate areas in more efficient manner and development at significantly increased densities.
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2.18 Town centres and retail development are dealt with at paragraph 5.22 onwards. The document notes some trends in retailing including development in the higher order centres at the expense of declining local services, and in many areas the development of out of centre retailing in various forms, diverting expenditure and investment from traditional centres. Nevertheless, paragraphs 5.24 and 5.25 note that there is likely to be a significant scope for further comparison retail development and the scale and location of any development will be critical. Paragraph 5.25 says that it is essential to support those centres that currently serve the region and that are well related to catchment areas and transport networks, particularly public transport. Therefore, paragraph 5.26 says that local authorities should continue to direct growth to the main centres.
2.19 These statements are therefore reflected in the content of policy EC6.
Regional Spatial Strategy for South W est England
2.20 The latest version of the Regional Spatial Strategy is draft version 4.1 published in March 2006. This is the version of the draft RSS that will soon be submitted to the Government Office, following on from a consultation process that commenced in the autumn of 2004 on Possible Development Strategies for the South West.
2.21 Section 2 sets out the context for the spatial strategy. The region is large and covers a wide range and number of different sizes and types of towns and cities. Whilst there are variations in the performance of these, generally the recent economic performance is seen as being good. As a reflection of this and also the quality of life available, the population of the South West region has grown by more than 400,000 since 1991, primarily as a result of in-migration, and this represents the highest rate of increase of all of the regions.
2.22 By 2026 latest forecast suggests that the region’s population could have grown by over 750,000 people over the 2006 base figure, giving a regional population of
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5.75million. The scale of in-migration is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.
2.23 One of the distinctive features of the region is its older than average population profile compared with other English regions. Every year more people die in the region than are born. In 2001 over 1,000 people in the South West were aged 60 and over, almost 24% of the total population. This compares with only 21% nationally. By 2026 it is expected that the South West total will have increased by over 600,000 to 1.8million, more than 30% of the projected population (paragraph 2.3.9).
2.24 Section 3 sets out the spatial strategy and guidance for the scale and location of development. Paragraph 3.1.2 confirms that in order to deliver more sustainable communities and a more sustainable region, significant change is anticipated in 23 strategically significant cities and towns, and these include Plymouth.
2.25 Section 4 sets out sub-regional strategy statements and comments on housing distribution. Policy SR32 confirms that at Plymouth measures will be taken to transform and revitalise the City for significant growth in economic activity and housing, in order for the City to realise its potential and enhance its sub-regional role. Inset diagram 4.7 indicates that this will include a new community to the East of Plymouth at Sherford, to the south of the A38.
2.26 Paragraph SR35 confirms that Plymouth’s economy will be stimulated in the period up to 2026 to create about 42,000 jobs, and the provision should be made for an average of about 1,575 dwellings per annum in the Plymouth area, distributed as follows: • within Plymouth – 24,500 dwellings; • Sherford – 5,500 dwellings; • within and adjacent to Saltash and Torpoint – about 1,000 dwellings;
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• limited further allocations of about 500 dwellings in South Hams district adjoining Plymouth City Council's administrative area.
2.27 Section 8 deals with enhancing economic prosperity and quality of employment opportunity. Town Centres are dealt with at Section 8.4.
2.28 Paragraph 8.41 states that in major centres there is strong demand from multiple retailers, coupled with low vacancy levels. However, there is still demand for out of town provision. It is estimated that because of annual growth in population and expenditure, the region will need to plan for an increase in provision of retail floor space of between 1.31 and 1.97 million sq.m. gross by 2026, based on average sales densities of between £4,000 and £6,000/sq.m., in addition to the current floor space in the region of 3.39million sq.m. gross.
2.29 In terms of this additional floor space to be provided, paragraph 8.4.2 echoes the town centres first approach set out in PPS6. The need assessment is based on work undertaken by DTZ Pieda, and we comment on this below.
2.30 Paragraph 8.4.5 notes the presence of the facilities at Cribbs Causeway and Clarks Village and that these generate high volumes of car journeys. The paragraph says the pressures for developing further retail out of town centres should be resisted and that there is no current requirement for further out of town retail centres in the region.
2.31 These statements are reflected in Policy TC1 which says that in order to meet the needs of local communities within the region, local authorities will work together to ensure that the vitality and viability of the existing network of towns and city centres is maintained and enhanced. In doing so it will be important to ensure that such centres are not adversely affected by inappropriate developments elsewhere.
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2.32 The central areas of the main towns and cities will be the focus for new investment in retail and other major facilities, and the scale of new investment in retail and other facilities should take full account of changing patterns of behaviour and future levels of population growth.
2.33 The development of major new regional shopping facilities outside of these centres will not be supported.
Devon Structure Plan 2001-2016
2.34 The Devon structure plan was adopted in October 2004 and covers the whole of Devon including Plymouth.
2.35 Shopping is dealt with in chapter 6. Policy SH1 generally reflects the advice in PPS6 in that where need for additional retail facilities can be identified, facilities should be provided for within town centres. Only if sites in town centres are not available will other sites be acceptable.
Plymouth Local Plan
2.36 The adopted local plan for Plymouth is the City of Plymouth First Alteration, adopted in 1996.
2.37 Paragraph 2.2 confirms that the operative period of plan was up to 2001 and thus the adopted local plan is now out of date. Nevertheless it remains the adopted local plan, and its policies are a material consideration.
2.38 Shopping is dealt with in chapter 8 of the document. Paragraph 8.9 confirms that the general aim is to promote a viable and effective hierarchy of retailing which gives maximum choice and convenience to all sections of the public.
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2.39 Policy ASR1 seeks to promote and maintain and where appropriate to extend the existing hierarchy of shopping centres by permitting retail development in exiting centres appropriate to their scale and function and allowing development which is consistent with that hierarchy and structure plan policies.
2.40 Policy ASR2 confirms that in order to enhance the regional/sub-regional role and maintain the distinct role of the City centre retail development of the following sites will be permitted: 1. Land at Colin Campbell court; 2. Land at Drake Circus; 3. Land between Royal Parade and New George Street (the Debenhams block)
2.41 Policy ASR2 is clarified by policy ASR3 which confirms that the implementation of any of these three proposals within the same time scale would only be permitted if it would not adversely affect the vitality and viability of the city centre as a whole. Policy ASR4 seeks the refurbishment of Pannier market, and the provision of additional open air stalls in the Market Avenue/Frankfort Gate area. Policy ASR7 confirms that the City Council will seek new food stores at Granby Way in Devonport and at Chaddlewood in Plympton.
2.42 Policy ASR8 confirms that the range of district centres will be extended by new designations at: • Crownhill • Transit Way, Honicknowle • Marlborough Street, Devonport • Chaddlewood, Plympton.
2.43 Policy ASR12 confirms that shopping related tourist and leisure activities will be permitted in various locations including: • The Barbican • The Royal William Yard
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• Millbay.
2.44 Finally, we note that under policy AER10 there was a proposal for land at St Budeaux by-pass to be developed for ‘employment’ uses including retail, sufficient to enable the B class development to be viable.
City of Plymouth Local Plan (1995-2011)
2.45 At around the turn of the millennium, the City Council commenced work on a review of the 1996 adopted local plan. A first Deposit Version was published in December 2001. However, before this plan could be progressed announcements were made regarding the content of new legislation governing the preparation of local planning documents. As a consequence of this the City Council took the decision to suspend further work on the plan, and look towards the preparation of the replacement local plan under the new development plan procedures. It is important to note that the Council did not ‘abandon’ this plan, but rather considered it as a draft policy which would be replaced piece by piece as the LDF is prepared.
2.46 Shopping development is dealt with in policies 10-15. These draft policies generally reflect the content of PPS6, and we note policy 12 regarding phasing.
2.47 Part three of the plan sets out proposals for specific sites. Proposal 2 allocates the site at Colin Campbell Court for primarily retail development, along with other uses. We note that retail use was removed from proposal 86 (land at Honicknowle tip).
Plymouth Local Development Framework
2.48 The local development scheme for Plymouth City Council was adopted in July 2005, although proposed revisions were submitted to the Government Office in
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March 2006. The proposed changes related to a number of matters, including timetabling issues for the preparation of further local development framework documents.
2.49 We understand that this shopping study will form part of the evidence base for the preparation of further LDF documents.
2.50 In July 2005 the City Council published its Core Strategy – Preferred Options. A period of consultation from the end of July to early September 2005 was then undertaken.
2.51 Paragraph 4.1 of the July 2005 core strategy confirms that the vision for the City is set out in the City Strategy and Action Plan, which is the community strategy developed through the 2020 Partnership. The 2020 vision has been amplified by the work of MBM Arquitectes along with AZ Urban Studio (the Mackay vision). We refer further to the Mackay Vision briefly below. Paragraph 4.9 confirms that if the aspirations of the City are met, the process will eventually lead to a city of over 300,000 people. 10,000 new dwellings are anticipated to be provided for in the period up to 2016, along with the provision of 80 hectares of employment land. The LDF Annual Progress Report published in December 2005 suggests that more than 10,000 homes are likely to be delivered by 2016 given proactive measures to increase Plymouth’s population.
2.52 Paragraph 4.15 notes that by 2016 Plymouth City centre will fulfil its role as a regional shopping and entertainment centre. The City centre already supports a wide range of shops, and its retail role will be strengthened by the new development unfolding at Drake Circus. Nevertheless, in order to retain and better fulfil this role new investment will be encouraged to provide 2,500sq.m. net of retail space for convenience goods and 87,850sq.m. net for comparison goods (including 30,000sq.m. net at Drake Circus) by 2016.
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2.53 Paragraph 4.16 goes on to say that providing support for all district and local shopping centres is a key aim of the plan. These are seen as central to achieving sustainable linked neighbourhoods throughout the City. Gaps or deficiencies have been identified in retail provisions in Devonport, Weston Mill, Barne Barton/St Budeaux, Whitleigh Green, Southway, Derriford, Eggbuckland, Efford and Lipson and Plymstock. These deficiencies will be met by the provision of a further 9,350sq.m. net of retail space for convenience goods. A maximum of 18,000sq.m. net of retail warehouse space will also be provided within the city.
2.54 This shopping study effectively seeks to review and confirm these figures, on a City-wide basis.
2.55 The figures are repeated in paragraph 11.2 in the core strategy document and it is confirmed that these estimates emanate from the 2004 Local Shopping Needs Study prepared for the Council by CB Richard Ellis.
2.56 We note paragraph 11.3 of the core strategy confirms that not withstanding the imminent strengthening of the centre by new development at Drake Circus, in order that Plymouth City Centre should remain one of the South West’s premier shopping destinations further investment is needed in order to broaden consumer choice and to create a competitive, more vibrant and ‘urban’ City centre.
2.57 That said, we also note paragraph 11.5 which goes on to say that although existing centres will be the focus of new retail provision, in some circumstances this may not be appropriate. In these cases it may be appropriate to bring forward new retail sites and local centres, to address any imbalance in provision and at the same time contribute to creating sustainable communities.
2.58 Paragraph 11.6 specifically refers to the needs of larger, specialist outlet stores selling goods such as DIY, electrical, carpets or furniture.
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2.59 Consequently, at the end of the section 11 of the core strategy a number of preferred options are set out (options 16-19). These include preferred option 19 which suggests there should be a policy on district and local centres, and that new centres will be created at Devonport, Millbay, Derriford, Plymstock Quarry and Weston Mill in order to better serve communities where current provision is inadequate, and in support of the City council strategy for creating sustainable linked communities. We return to this particular matter later in our report.
2.60 Chapter 22 onwards of the core strategy sets out area based preferred options for different parts of the City e.g. Millbay, Derriford etc., reflecting the content of the earlier chapters in the core strategy.
2.61 For some of these areas e.g. Derriford, Millbay and Stonehouse and North Plymstock the City Council has also published in July 2005 Area Action Plan preferred option reports. We understand that this shopping assessment will inform the further refinement of these plans.
Non-statutory documentation
2.62 We referred above to the Mackay Vision. This was published as a draft interim planning statement by the City Council on the 23rd of October 2003 for consultation purposes. Interim planning statements (IPSs) have been devised by the City Council as a means of dealing with matters on which guidance or decisions are urgently required, in the period between the first deposit of the local plan (work now ceased, see above) and the publication of the new local development framework.
2.63 The document confirmed that following public consultation, any observations would be put before the Cabinet on the 18th May 2004. At this meeting the Cabinet resolved to adopt the Vision for Plymouth Interim Planning Statement as a formal statement of the Council’s planning policy.
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Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006
3 NATIONAL SHOPPING PATTERNS
3.1 Social, economic and demographic patterns nationally (and particularly the South West) are creating a more mobile and discerning shopping population with generally greater affluence together with more brand and fashion awareness As the DTZ Pieda report prepared for the Regional Spatial Strategy identifies1, the combination of relatively low inflation and interest rates, growth in consumer debt and home ownership equity, and retail price deflation means that most consumers are now more affluent than ever before, but have an increasing eye for value for money.
Portfolio of Retail Opportunities
3.2 Trends in retail development over the last twenty years have now given consumers a wide choice of retail opportunities. Shoppers are no longer confined to the most convenient centre nearby but have access to a range of possible facilities – including: ° major regional shopping centres such a Plymouth City Centre or, further afield, Exeter or Bristol; ° regional malls such as Cribbs Causeway; ° individual retail warehouses (particularly those containing “category killers” such Ikea or B&Q Warehouse) or well-located retail warehouse parks; ° established district, neighbourhood and local centres; and ° large individual food-based superstores.
Moreover, the well-established practice of catalogue shopping has recently been complemented by internet shopping – either by internet-based retailers such as Amazon, or through the online services being offered by established retailers such as Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer, John Lewis, etc.
1 DTZ PIEDA: South West Town Centres Regional Study (January 2006)
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3.3. Although online retailing has opened-up new channels of distribution for both goods and services it has the potential to threaten the continued viability of many existing retail units selling in a range of products in a variety of locations.
Market Trends
3.4 Consumer demands for choice, convenience and an attractive and stimulating retail environment means that there is a growing polarisation in the market – particularly for comparison goods. There is a growing distinction in the eyes of many consumers between the major regional ‘destination’ centres or Regional Malls on the one hand, and most convenient and attractive local centres, or even large individual stores (or groupings of stores), that are capable of serving the majority of shoppers more everyday shopping needs.
3.5 In response to this latter trend the leading food store operators have developed smaller store formats such as Tesco Metro, Sainsbury’s Local and M&S Simply Food in ‘high footfall’ locations such as larger city and town centres as well as transport interchanges. Similarly, both supermarket operators and the major oil companies have also been developing ‘forecourt’ retailing at petrol stations.
3.6 At the same time there has been a corresponding surge in the range of non-food goods and services being offered by the major supermarket companies at their largest stores – particularly Tesco. As a consequence most supermarket operators are continuing to expand their floor space – either through the continuing development of new stores, or through extension or, in some cases, the complete redevelopment/relocation of existing stores.
3.7 Similarly many of the most successful non-food operators - such as Next - are also seeking larger stores to display the fullest possible product range and provide
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enhanced in-store facilities in the most attractive environment in order to compete with each other and with out-of-centre locations.
3.8 In parallel with this growing cost-consciousness amongst shoppers has seen a growth in discount retailers particularly for groceries, fashion and home improvement.
3.9 The combination of these trends has led to a good deal of consolidation in the retail sector (notably in sectors such as fashion, furniture and electrical retailing). It is also expected to place growing pressure on the continued vitality and viability of many smaller ‘middle order’ centres, smaller free-standing towns or, in the case of Plymouth, existing district, neighbourhood or local centres will increasingly need to be able to differentiate themselves in terms of their “offer” from what might be available either in the City Centre (particularly considering the development now taking place there) or in more accessible centres or freestanding stores nearby.
Future Outlook
3.10 Despite the changes referred to above and difficult trading conditions in 2005, expenditure growth is expected to continue to grow in the period of the Study. Experian expect national average annual growth in per capita expenditure on all goods between 2005-2014 to be around 2.6% (0.6% p.a. on convenience goods; 3.6% p.a. comparison goods)2, as opposed to the ultra long-term trends on 0.6% and 4.7% per annum respectively. In Section 6 of this study where we consider quantitative capacity we have adopted growth in per capita convenience expenditure of 0.6% and 4.3% per annum comparison per head for the period 2006-2026. This reflects the likely position that over the longer period (when compared with Experian), the rate of growth for comparison expenditure will be slightly lower.
2 See Experian Business Strategies Retail Planner Briefing Note No 3 March 2006 Table 3.3
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3.11 Nationally occupier demand for the best retail space in both traditional centres, in shopping centres and in well-located out-of-centre space remains strong. Across the South West as a whole there are generally low vacancy rates, growing rents, good investment returns and continued demand for good quality out-of-centre space, although as Section 5 explains, the situation in Plymouth is currently being affected by the floor space that is expected to come on stream with the completion of Drake Circus later this year.
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4 OVERVIEW OF PREVIOUS RETAIL ASSESSMENTS
4.1 This shopping study is, in part, an update of previous shopping studies undertaken on behalf of the City Council. The previous work is as follows: • Plymouth Shopping Study 2000 (CB Hillier Parker (CBHP), September 2000); • Plymouth Shopping Study Update 2001 (CBHP, December 2001); • Plymouth Local Shopping Needs Study 2004, Final Report (CB Richard Ellis (CBRE), November 2004); and • DTZ Pieda: South West Town Centres Regional Study (January 2006)
4.2 We set out below a brief summary of the main findings of each of these studies, in so far as relevant to our own report.
Plymouth Shopping Study 2000
4.3 This assessment was prepared at the time the City council were undertaking work in reviewing the adopted the 1996 local plan. The study assessed the need for new food and non-food retail development in Plymouth in the period up to 2011. the study was based on survey work undertaken in 1999 and 2000.
4.4 The original 1999 survey was undertaken on behalf of Cornwall County council and therefore excluded any areas in Devon. The 2000 survey concentrated on these additional areas.
4.5 In common with other CBHP/CBRE reports the document refers to the so- called REASN model. In reality, this is essentially a spreadsheet operated market share model, and is not dissimilar to the quantitative assessment methodology used by most other retail planning consultants. This includes Cushman & Wakefield.
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4.6 Catchment area population and expenditure data were derived from Mapinfo (as distinct from this shopping study which derives such data from Experian). The population data would, of course, have been based on 1991 census data since the study predated the 2001 census results. All monetary values in the report are expressed in 1998 prices.
4.7 CBHP utilised the Data Consultancy’s (since acquired by Mapinfo) growth rates for expenditure per capita using the ultra long term rates of 0.1% per annum for convenience goods and 3.6% per annum for comparison goods.
4.8 Floor space data, as for this study, was largely sourced from the City Council. Information on company average sales densities, again as with this study, has been sourced from Verdict and Retail Rankings.
4.9 In terms of convenience goods, the study found that whilst food stores within the City Centre were slightly under-trading, food stores beyond the City Centre were substantially over-trading. Within these groupings, there were of course variations, with some stores over-trading more significantly than others. As a consequence, the study forecasted that by 2006 there would be a need for about 6,300sq.m. net additional convenience floor space within the City, rising slightly to about 6,500sq.m. by 2011. This included an allowance for the committed extension to the Sainsbury at Marsh Mills.
4.10 Turning to comparison goods the City Centre was estimated to be achieving a sales density of about £5,000/sq.m., this being about the density which CBHP would expect for such a Centre. By way of comparison, making adjustments for price base and floor space efficiency, this would equate to a trade density of £4,858/sq.m. in the base year for this assessment (2006). The reason the 2006 figure is lower than the figure in 2000 relates to a general reduction in the price of comparison goods in real terms over this period.
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4.11 By comparison with other city centres in the UK, namely Peterborough, CBHP concluded that Plymouth City Centre was in need of further investment in order to ensure its long term retail prosperity.
4.12 CBHP’s quantitative conclusion was that there would be sufficient expenditure by 2006 to support an additional 33,500sq.m. net of comparison floor space, including allowance of demolitions as a result of the Drake circus redevelopment (but not construction of the scheme itself). The forecast capacity rose to about 53,000sq.m. by 2011.
4.13 Thus, the overall finding of CBHP was that in the period up to 2006 there would be sufficient capacity for the Drake Circus redevelopment, but little need for any further development until towards the end of the period to 2011.
4.14 CBHP had also assumed that the proposed factory outlet shopping centre at the Royal William Yard would not be constructed, and this has proved to be the case.
4.15 CBHP assessed the need for retail warehouse floor space separately from ‘high street’ floor space. The study found that, as a whole retail warehouses in the city were slightly over-trading. However, the study noted that planning permissions existed for further development at Laira Bridge Road and at Pomphlett Quarry, and that if both of these schemes were implemented there would be a slight over- supply of floor space in 2000. However, by 2006 CBHP forecast a need for about 6,100sq.m. net retail warehouse floor space, rising to 13,000sq.m. net by 2011. These figures assumed no changes in the market share for retail warehouses within the city generally.
4.16 It was noted that if the commitments at Laira Bridge Road and Pomphlett Quarry were not implemented, then substantially larger developments could be justified subject to considerations of impact on existing centres.
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4.17 Overall, CBHP estimated that Plymouth City Centre’s market share for all comparison goods expenditure in 2000 was 54.4% (Table 3a(III)). The market share for the City including retail warehouses was estimated to rise to 65.6%, although it should be noted this appears to have excluded turnover within District and Local centres. Our own assessment indicates market shares very similar to those derived by CBHP, at 51.1% and 61.1% respectively.
4.18 CBHP assessed retailer demand in section 3 of their report. In terms of demand from comparison retailers it was estimated that total requirements for additional City Centre floor space were between 30,200-36,100sq.m. gross. However, one third was accounted for by a single department store operator, and we note here that the new Drake Circus development due to open in September 2006 will not now be anchored by a department store operator. We consider this later in our report.
4.19 In section 4 of their report (paragraph 4.11 and 4.12) CBHP noted the emergence of development schemes in the centres competing with Plymouth. These included Princesshay in Exeter, and Lemon Quay and Pydar Street in Truro. It was predicted that these would have the effect of squeezing Plymouth’s market share, particularly from the Eastern and Western edges of its catchment area.
4.20 In terms of accommodating the anticipated capacity within Plymouth City Centre CBHP examined a number of sites. These included the Drake Circus site, Bretonside bus station, Moon Street flats and adjoining land, civic centre car park, Derry’s Cross and adjoining land, Collin Campbell Court, and the Woolworth site/adjoining car parks. Non-City centre sites assessed included Granby Way in Devonport, the British Gas site at Keyham, Weston Mill, Barne Barton, St Budeaux, The Honicknowle site (B&Q), Whitleigh Green Local Centre, Crownhill District Centre, the South West Water Site at Crownhill (Homebase), the Western National Site (Laira Bridge Road), the police station site at Plymstock and St Boniface playing fields site.
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Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006
Plymouth Shopping Study Update 2001
4.21 Just over a year after their initial report CBHP were instructed to update their report. Primarily this related to the quantitative forecast.
4.22 Paragraph 2.3 of the study update confirms that CBHP had reduced their comparison per capita expenditure growth rate from 3.6% to 3% per annum, to take account of the growth in internet shopping. As consequence capacity in 2006 was now expected to be slightly less at about 36,800sq.m. net, rising to about 54,900sq.m. net by 2011, representing a significant reduction in the initial assessment. These revised figures did also take into account the change in the position in relation to the number of retail commitments, including the B&Q at Crownhill, and a number of proposed schemes in the City Centre (Welbeck Land and Ravenseft Properties).
4.23 In terms of convenience retailing, paragraph 5.5 of the study update noted that an appeal against the refusal of a planning permission for a new food store on the British Gas site at Keyham had been dismissed (we understand this to be the refusal of planning permission by the Secretary of State on the sports ground site, by letter dated 9th February 2000, for a new store proposal by Asda), and that the Council had decided not to pursue a major new food store at Colin Campbell Court. Therefore, CBHP concluded that the need for a new food store to serve the Devonport area was even greater than at the time of the previous study. One possible site was considered to be the Granby Way site.
4.24 Since the time of the previous assessment paragraph 5.8 also noted that the Secretary of State had refused planning permission for a large new DIY store on the Honicknowle site.
4.25 Overall, we note market shares for the City Centre and City as a whole remained the same for comparison goods (tables 3a(iii) and 3b(iii)).
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Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006
Plymouth Local Shopping Needs study 2004: Final Report
4.26 As the name of this report implies the study was primarily intended to focus on local shopping needs of the City, in particular convenience and service retail provision and identify any deficiencies in the existing network of distribution of local centres. Having identified any deficiencies, CBRE were asked to formulate mechanisms for addressing these.
4.27 CBRE were also asked to identify any need for new district or local centres, and recommend how such needs should be met.
4.28 In undertaking this work CBRE further updated their quantitative capacity forecasts to extend to the period up to 2016. However, as paragraph 4.2 confirms this did not involve a new household survey. It did however involve utilising more up to date 2001 census information, and also more up to date expenditure information including converting all monetary values to a 2001 price base. CBRE also updated the expenditure per capita growth rates to reflect latest information; the rates applied were 0.9% per annum for convenience goods and 3.7% per annum for comparison goods. CBRE considered the latter rate to be conservative (paragraph 4.8).
4.29 We note the comments at paragraph 4.9 of their assessment that CBRE found the quantitative analysis to be relatively insensitive to the updated population estimates, but much more sensitive to the changes in the expenditure per capita growth rates.
4.30 Again, we note that market shares for comparison goods remained unchanged for the 2000 study. On this basis table 5.1 set out the revised capacity forecasts, and we reproduce the CBRE table below:
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Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006
Table 4.1: CBRE Assessment of Retail Capacity 2006 2011 2016 (sq.m. net) (sq.m. net) (sq.m. net) Convenience goods City Centre 1,600 2,050 2,500 Non-City Centre 5,300 7,250 9,350 Total 6,900 9,300 11,850 Comparison goods City Centre1 33,350 58,550 87,850 Out of Centre2 300 8,850 18,800
Notes: 1. The City Centre comparison goods forecasts exclude Drake Circus and other commitments which should be deducted to arrive at the capacity for further floor space; 2. The out of centre retail warehouse forecasts are for floor space additional to that committed at Laira Bridge Road; 3. Source: CBRE 2004 study Table 5.1;
4.31 Based on the revised analysis paragraph 4.23 confirmed that in 2004 Plymouth City Centre was estimated to be achieving an average sales density for comparison goods of £6,784/sq.m. net. This was considered by CBRE to be a high sales density indicating that the City Centre was performing very well. However, it was also assessed to be artificially high (arithmetically), because it was based on reduced City Centre floor space after the demolitions to make way for Drake Circus.
4.32 By way of comparison, on the same basis as with the 2000 study above, converting this figure to a 2003 price base in 2006 (to be consistent with our study) the equivalent figure would be £6,675/sq.m. net. We generally concur with the CBRE view that, if correct, this figure would represent a healthy trading position. As this report confirms in section 6, we calculate the figure to be £6,922/sq.m. in 2006.
4.33 We also note the comment at paragraph 4.24 that CBRE considered an equilibrium trading level in 2006 for Plymouth city centre would be £6,000/sq.m.
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(in 2003 prices the equivalent figure would be £5,730/sq.m., and this is the benchmark figure we have used for our own assessment).
4.34 CBRE continued to find that retail warehouse floor space within the City was trading at slightly above average levels. Again, our latest assessment is consistent with this position.
DTZ Pieda: South W est Town Centres Regional Study (January 2006)
4.35 This document, which it is recognised was prepared in a short timescale, has been informed by the population and growth forecasts proposed in the emerging RSS, having regard to PPS6. The document is essentially a quantitative forecasting exercise based on desk top analysis and the findings of one workshop meeting in December 2005.
4.36 The report notes some retail market drivers and trends. On page 18 of this section it suggests that there is: • strong demand in major city centres from multiple retailers; • low vacancy levels in major centres (Bristol, Exeter & Plymouth); • growing rents; • demand for out of town stock; • major pipeline schemes e.g. Drake Circus (52,024sq.m.) & Princesshay (37,160sq.m.).
4.37 In the next section (‘identifying centres and defining catchments’) DTZ create a ranking model for centres in the South West, based on various indicators (set out on page 24). Plymouth is ranked at No.6, Exeter ranked at No.3, and Cheltenham ranks at No. 1.
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Table 4.2: DTZ Assessment of Retail Hierarchy Centre Rank Centre Rank Cheltenham 1 Barnstaple 16 Bath 2 Weymouth 17 Exeter 3 Newton Abbot 18 Bournemouth (central) 4 Penzance 19 Swindon 5 Circencester 20 Plymouth 6 Bournemouth (Boscombe) 21 Gloucester 7 Dorchester 22 Taunton 8 Paington 23 Bristol (Broadmead) 9 Chippenham 24 Salisbury 10 Cribbs Causeway 25 Weston-super-Mare 11 Trowbridge 26 Poole 12 Bridgewater 27 Torquay 13 Falmouth 28 Yeovil 14 Strood 29 Truro 15 Newquay 30
Notes: sourced from DTZ study
4.38 Page 30 of the report notes that the catchment areas are defined only to assist with the retail capacity modelling, and do not represent new sub-regional catchment areas.
4.39 Using these catchment areas DTZ apply their ‘Re:map’ model in order to calculate and quantify retail capacity. Six different scenarios have been modelled by DTZ, which in practice reflect three different pairs of scenarios. The principal variable is the population growth over the period 2001-2026 and three rates have been tested at 14.6%, 16.9% and 18.5%. To each of these population growth rates have been applied two other variables, namely annual expenditure growth on comparison goods and an annual efficiency ratio for existing floor space i.e. trading density increase year on year. The annual expenditure growth rates
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chosen were 3.8% and 4.8%, and these have been coupled with efficiency rates of 1.5% and 2.5% per annum.
4.40 The expenditure data and growth assumptions have been derived from MapInfo. Market shares for individual centres within the catchment areas have been maintained at a constant level into the future. Moreover it is assumed that in the base year (2006) all of the centres in the study area are trading at equilibrium level.
4.41 Special forms of trading, home shopping and ‘e-tailing’ have been accounted for by deducting 7% from available expenditure per capita.
4.42 It has been assumed that all commitments in the region would be constructed and trading prior to 2011, the first of the ‘test’ years. As a consequence DTZ do not identify any additional capacity at 2011. By 2016 they identify capacity in the range of approximately 250-500,000sq.m. gross, at 2021 in the range 750,000- 1,250,000sq.m. gross and at 2026 in the range of 1,250,000-2,000,000sq.m. gross.
4.43 Scenario 1 is the most pessimistic and scenario 5 the most optimistic in this range, and we note there is little difference in terms of the projections for scenarios 2, 4 and 6.
4.44 Overall DTZ consider that their scenario 3 is probably the most robust over the longer term as a means of providing a realistic, broad assessment of potential floor space capacity up to 2026.
4.45 The Plymouth urban area is located within DTZs catchment area 4. Utilising scenario 3 DTZ predict a need for 186,400sq.m. – 279,600sq.m. gross up to 2026, excluding commitments.
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Summary
4.46 The CBHP/CBRE studies of 2000, 2001 and 2004 found relatively significant capacity for comparison goods floor space in Plymouth City Centre at 2006, and going forward up to 2016. However, the assessments (like any survey based assessment) were based on a single survey evidence base and therefore represent a ‘snap-shot’ of likely capacity at the time. A more up to date survey (as undertaken for this study) allows the position to be verified. Since the original survey evidence was collected in 1999 and 2000, a new survey is important (as PPS6 recognises).
4.47 Our analysis indicates that comparison goods market shares have remained stable over the six year period. Therefore, we conclude the market shares on which the previous assessments were prepared were robust.
4.48 However, the DTZ assessment results should be only be applied with considerable caution at the local level, since they are extremely broad-brush assessments for the entire region. In any event we have noted some inaccuracies in certain base data that may affect the results, for example the assumed net comparison floor space for Plymouth City Centre (55,290sq.m. net compared with our own and CBRE’s estimate of 101,000sq.m. net.).
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5 RETAILING IN PLYMOUTH: AN AUDIT
5.1 Having considered the planning policy context, national retail trends, and previous retail assessment work undertaken on behalf of the Council, we now set out below the findings of our assessment of retail facilities within Plymouth along with other centres are likely to compete with Plymouth for retail expenditure.
5.2 In so doing we have considered these centres, as appropriate, in terms of the indicators of vitality and viability set out in PPS 6. In summary, these indicators comprise: • diversity of uses; • the location of development; • the potential capacity for growth or change of centres in the network; • retailer representation and demand; • shopping rents; • vacancy levels; • yields; • pedestrian flow; • accessibility; • customers views; • perception of safety and occurrence of crime; • environmental quality.
Plymouth City Centre Overview
5.3 Plymouth is one of two sub-regional centres in Devon, the other being Exeter. Primarily due to the presence of the naval dockyard the centre was the subject of significant damage and destruction and bombing in World War II. After the war, in order to form a new heart for the City James Paton Watson (the then city engineer), and Patrick Abercrombie (an eminent town planner) produced a master plan for Plymouth City Centre. In accordance with thinking at the time, different land uses were separated horizontally, and much emphasis was placed on easy access by the motorcar. These historical paradigms are reflected in the
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physical arrangement of the City Centre today, albeit there have been further physical interventions over the last five decades or so.
5.4 The City Centre’s position in the Southern part of the urban area arises of course from its proximity to the water, and the historic need to be close to the disembarkation point for goods from merchants, and for defensive reasons.
5.5 The City Centre itself is arranged on a loose North-South, East-West grid iron pattern. The North-South axis is from Plymouth railway station from the North to The Hoe, via Armada Way, a pleasant pedestrianised street for the most part. The main shopping streets of Cornwall Street, New George Street and Royal Parade bisect Armada way on an East-West axis. Retail use is focused on the North side of the Royal Parade and cultural and civic uses predominate to the South.
5.6 The boundaries of the City Centre shopping area are then further defined by western approach to the north west and Cobourg Street/ Charles Street to the North east. The resulting city centre retail area is therefore roughly triangular in shape.
5.7 At the northern tip of the triangle is the Armada centre. This is a purpose built shopping centre anchored on the ground floor by a large Wilkinsons store, and on the first floor by a Sainsbury supermarket. Other retail traders on the ground floor include Laura Ashley, Jessops and Peacocks, and on the north side of the block at the first floor level is situated a hotel. The centre also includes public car parking spaces.
5.8 Moving south down Armada Way, the area with the junction with New George Street marks the centre of the City Centre retail area. On the southeast corner of the area is the City centre’s premier store Dingles (House of Fraser department store). On the northeast corner is Top Shop. Other major retailers on New George Street include a Debenhams department store, a Co-op department store,
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TJ Hughes, and a Woolworths variety store. There are also a number of familiar national multiple retailers such as HMV, Next, Monsoon, New Look, Waterstones and Dixons. At the time of our survey there were very few vacant units. Cornwall Street has a slightly different character. East of Armada way are located major national retailers including Bhs, Marks & Spencers, Virgin Megastore etc. To the West of Cornwall Street as well as multiple national retailers there are also a number of independent traders and a number of non A1 uses. At the Western end of Cornwall Street is the Pannier indoor market, which is a vibrant fully let retail destination at the western end of the city centre. Immediately across market avenue from the indoor market is the block known as Colin Campbell Court, which includes a 280 space shopper car park in the interior of the block.
5.9 Further shopper car parking is available by crossing over Western approach via the footbridge and Frankfort Gate to the 1400 space multi-storey car park. The same route can also be used to access the adjoining Toys r Us store.
5.10 The Eastern End of the City Centre shopping area is presently the subject of redevelopment for the Drake Circus covered shopping centre. This development has involved the demolition of the Charles Street multi-storey car park and retail units on Eastlake Street and Old Town Street. Once completed, it is anticipated that Drake Circus will provide a major new attraction and anchor to the eastern end of the City Centre and indeed the City Centre as a whole.
5.11 The Drake Circus scheme is understood to comprise 60,380sq.m. of additional gross floor space in the centre (30,000sq.m. net comparison). Originally, it was anticipated that the scheme would be anchored by a new department store for the City, namely Alders. However, with the demise of that operator the developers have sought alternative anchor stores. We understand that pre-lets have now been agreed with Primark and Next. Whilst the Primark store marks the entrance to the City for that retailer, the Next store will be a relocation of their existing unit on New George Street, albeit into a much larger unit. We are
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also aware that there will be a number of relocations into the scheme from existing retailers and to date these include Boots, Virgin, O2, Mothercare, Carphone Warehouse and River Island. We anticipate that there will be other relocations announced in due course.
5.12 The overall environmental quality of the City Centre is mixed, and should be improved with the opening of the Drake Circus development. Whilst Armada Way has clearly benefited from investment in the public realm in recent years, other streets and many of the buildings require further investment. The work of the Plymouth City Centre Company will be important in this respect.
Diversity of Use
5.13 Data from Experian Goad indicates the following distribution of use by floor space within the City Centre, along with the National average for comparison:
Table 5.1: Plymouth City Centre Diversity of Use Use Sq.m. City Centre National Average (gross) (%) (%) Class A1 (convenience) 14,260 13.43 16.79 Class A1 (comparison) 72,593 46.7 43.78 Variety & Department stores 22,928 21.59 9.24 Class A1 (service) 2,591 2.8 4.77 Non A1 12,792 11.79 16.2 Vacant 2,898 2.73 7.99 Other 1,040 0.98 1.23
Notes: Source – Experian Goad August 2004; ignores upper floors
5.14 Whilst the data is only approximate it indicates that the City Centre has about the national average proportion of floor space in convenience and comparison shopping use, but has more than average in variety and department store use.
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However, service and other occupiers (including catering) make up a smaller than average proportion. Vacancy rates are very low.
Location of Development
5.15 Approximately 57% of Plymouth’s total stock of gross comparison floor space is located within the City Centre. Both by quantum of floor space, and also identity of retailers we consider that the City Centre has the dominant position.
5.16 We have however noted a relatively large number of stand alone comparison stores in out of centre locations throughout the City, for example along the A379 on the Northern edge of Plymstock. Some of these are relatively large stores, although most appear to be long-established. Nevertheless, there appear to be a large than average number of such units.
Capacity for Growth
5.17 Plymouth City Centre appears fortunate in that there is both scope in market share terms, and physical capacity for growth. Based on our experience elsewhere the City Centre’s market share of comparison expenditure could, and should be improved.
5.18 Sites appear to be suitable to achieve this.
Retailer Representation and Demand
5.19 Plymouth City Centre has a solid base of middle market quality, national multiple retailers such as Next and River Island. However, it is clearly lacking a choice of retailers from the upper-middle and upper price point categories, by comparison with more distant centres. This may be prevent the City Centre achieving a greater market share.
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Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006
5.20 Department store representation within the City is generally good, with three department store operators (House of Fraser, Debenhams, and Coop). However, all of these stores appear compromised in physical terms, and not of a configuration of the most modern versions of these retailers stores, notably House of Fraser and Debenhams.
5.21 We deal with retailer demand in chapter 7 of this study.
Rents
5.22 We set out below data on prime zone A retail rents in Plymouth over the last decade, along with similar data from our ‘comparator’ centres:
Table 5.2: Prime Zone A Retail Rental Tone (1995-2005)
e
g 1 5 6 7 8 9 0 2 3 4 5 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 n
a c Centre c c c c c c c c c c h e e e e e e e e e e e c
D D D D D D D D D D D %
Bath 180 180 200 200 200 210 215 210 210 230 240 33.3
Bournemouth 133 140 150 160 165 175 180 175 185 187.5 190 42.8
Bristol 140 140 150 150 170 170 175 175 170 175 185 32.1
Cheltenham 140 140 150 160 165 170 170 170 170 180 190 35.7
Cribbs Causeway n/a n/a n/a 250 250 250 250 250 260 320 335 34
Exeter 135 140 150 150 170 170 170 170 175 182.5 195 44.4
Plymouth 145 150 150 150 150 150 155 155 155 160 160 10.3
Swindon 134 140 160 170 175 175 165 165 165 165 170 26.8
Notes: Source – Cushman & Wakefield
5.23 The data indicates that in most cases prime rental tone has been rising steadily. In terms of percentage change over the last decade Exeter has witnessed the biggest growth at 44.4%, whereas Plymouth has seen the lowest increase of only 10.3%, and no growth in the last two years.
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Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006
5.24 We anticipate that after the opening of the Princesshay schemes prime zone A rental levels will rise to £210 in Exeter. However, there is less certainty that Plymouth will enjoy similar levels of uplift, at least in the short term, partly because of the lack of a department store anchor in the Drake Circus scheme.
Vacancy Level
5.25 Plymouth City Centre has a very low level of vacancies at about 2.5%. This appears to reflect a relatively healthy position in respect of retailer demand in the context of the existing stock of floor space. However, as other chapters of this study note the position will change in the short-term once the Drake Circus development comes on stream.
5.26 For the other centres we have compared Plymouth with, again the City Centre performs well. The other vacancy rates are as follows (the national average being about 8%): • Bath 6.0% • Bournemouth 6.5% • Bristol 11.0% • Cheltenham 7.9% • Cribbs Causeway 0.6% • Exeter 6.0% • Swindon 8.0%
Yields
5.27 The table below indicates changes in prime retail yields over the last five years, within Plymouth City Centre and the other comparison centres:
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Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006
Table 5.3: Prime Retail Yields (2000-2005)
1 0 2 3 4 5 1 0 2 3 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
e e e e e e c Centre c c c c c n e n n n n n e e e e e u u u u u u D D D D D D J J J J J J
Bath 5.25 5.50 6.00 6.25 5.75 5.75 5.50 5.25 4.75 4.50 4.50 4.25
Bournemouth 5.50 - - - - 6.50 6.00 5.75 5.25 5.00 4.75 4.50
Bristol 5.50 5.50 6.00 6.25 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.50 5.00 5.00 4.75 4.50
Cheltenham - - - - - 6.25 5.75 5.50 5.00 4.75 4.75 4.50
Cribbs Causeway - - - - - 6.25 6.00 5.50 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.00
Exeter 5.50 5.75 6.00 6.25 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.75 4.50
Plymouth 5.75 6.00 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.75
Swindon 5.50 6.00 6.00 6.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.75 5.25 5.00 4.75
Notes: Source – Cushman & Wakefield
5.28 Plymouth has performed in line with the other centres, and there is clearly a level of investor confidence in the centre.
Pedestrian Flow
5.29 Whilst pedestrian flows within the principal shopping streets within the City Centre appear relatively strong, again it is anticipated that flows in some streets may be altered as a result of the Drake Circus development. However, in the centre as a whole the number of shoppers should increase.
5.30 Analysing the latest pedestrian flow count data from PMRS ( September 2001) reveals the most frequented streets to be New George Street, followed by the section of Armada Way between New George Street and Cornwall Street, and then the East end of Cornwall Street. These shopping streets attract on average twice as many people as the other streets in the town. This is clearly due to the presence of the large national multiple stores such as Marks & Spencer, Debenhams, Bhs, Woolworths and Dingles.
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Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006
5.31 The Northern end of Armada Way and the east side of Cornwall Street would be considered more secondary locations with Mayflower Street, Market Way and Frankfort Gate experiencing the lowest pedestrian flows within the City Centre.
Accessibility
5.32 Accessibility to the City Centre is generally good. By car, although the roads can be busy at peak times any queues are generally quickly negotiated and car parking is plentiful and convenient. The position should be improved with the opening of the replacement car park in the Drake Circus development towards the end of 2006.
5.33 Bus services to the City Centre appear extremely good, and there are bus stops located at most points on the ring road around the City Centre but these are particularly concentrated along Royal Parade and Exeter Street.
5.34 The position in respect of shoppers arriving by train is not quite as positive. Whilst services to and from Plymouth station serve the major routes to distant cities such as Bristol and London, the station is somewhat divorced from the central shopping area and access is via a pedestrian subway. There are some issues to be resolved regarding legibility, signage and the general environmental quality of the subway, and we consider that there is the potential to therefore slightly improve overall patronage to the City Centre via the station.
5.35 We understand the Plymouth City Centre Company are studying ways to further enhance the City Centre’s accessibility.
Customer Views
5.36 The household shopper survey has obtained some limited information on customers’ perception of the City Centre, and these are summarised in Chapter 6.
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Perception of Safety and Crime
5.37 We have no specific data on incidence of crime within the City Centre, although on our visits the centre generally felt safe and non-threatening.
Environmental Quality
5.38 The environmental quality of the Drake Circus development, in the context of its form as a covered shopping centre, should be good. However, by comparison this may only serve to highlight some of the physical shortcomings in the rest of the City Centre. Whilst there has clearly been some improvements in terms of investment in the public realm on the main shopping streets in recent years e.g. Armada Way, many of the buildings have not enjoyed similar levels of investment, and in some cases are now in a noticeable state of disrepair superficially. We do consider that this is capable of being resolved but this is unlikely to happen without improvements in investor confidence, yields and rents and the tenant mix in the City Centre as a whole. Drake Circus has the potential to act as a catalyst for these positive changes, but they will take time to be translated into physical changes on the ground.
District and Local Centres
5.39 PPS6 provides a definition of district and local centres (Annex A), and we have had regard to this in consider the hierarchy of such centres in the City.
5.40 The City has a relatively extensive network of district and local centres albeit that the quality of these is variable. The main district centres are located at Mutley Plain North East of the City Centre, St Budeaux to the North West of the City Centre close to the Tamar Bridge, Plympton on the Eastern edge of the City North of the A38, and Plymstock on the South Eastern edge of the City South of the A379. The City Council have also identified Crownhill, Estover, Roborough
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and Transit Way as district centres. We comment on the appropriateness of this below.
5.41 The district centres are predominantly service orientated with limited comparison retailing, and a range of small and sometimes larger convenience retailers.
Crownhill
5.42 This District centre lies to the North West of the Centre, off the Tavistock Road. It is a linear centre comprising approximately 3,241sq.m. net of floor space located along Morshead Road. The breakdown of floor space is 22% convenience, 14.5% comparison, 9.7% A1 Service, 49% class A2-A5 and 4.5% vacant. Although this represents a reasonable quantum of total floor space, the centre is heavily biased towards the service and catering sectors, and does not contain a significant food store. In our view the centre would be more appropriately described as a local centre.
Estover
5.43 This centre comprises an Asda (5,769sq.m. gross) and 7 free standing units mostly occupied by independent service traders. The balance of uses equates to 53% convenience, 42% comparison 3%, A1 service and 2% others. The Asda is comparatively small and combined with the limited offer of the rest of the units only fulfils the role of a very small district centre. This is consistent with the Council’s general designation for the centre.
Mutley Plain
5.44 Mutley Plain is the largest district centre comprising approximately 12,400sq.m. net floor space and benefiting from a multi storey car park. There are a number of national multiple retailers including Somerfield, Superdrug, and Boots, but most of the retailers are independents. The balance of uses is evenly spread
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between convenience and comparison retailers equating to 16% each. However, the largest representation is for classes A2 to A5 at 50%. Overall there is a relatively limited range of comparison retailing for a district centre of this size, and the high representation of service floor space reflects the main role of this healthy centre.
5.45 We concur with the Council’s designation of this centre as a district centre.
Plymton Ridgeway
5.46 This district centre is similar is size to Mutley Plain and comprises approximately 12,300sq.m. net of floor space. The centre benefits from two car parks and the presence of national multiple retailers including the Co-op, Peacocks, Boots and Iceland, along with a Plymco store of 2,500sq.m. gross at the Western end of the centre. The balance of uses within the centre 27% for comparison goods, convenience at 20 %, A1 service at 11.5% and classes A2 to A5 at 36%. In summary the spread of uses reflects it’s relatively distant location from the City Centre (in the higher level of comparison floor space, and lower level of service floor space than, say, Mutley Plain). This is a healthy centre, and we concur with it’s designation as a district centre.
Plymstock Broadway
5.47 This District Centre is focused on The Broadway, and is about two thirds the size of Plympton Ridgeway and Mutley Plain. However, despite this smaller size it contains a relatively wide range of national multiple retailers including Lidl, Iceland, Somerfield, Woolworths, New Look and Boots. The proportion of floor space is biased towards convenience retailing with 31% and comparison at 25%. The most notable feature is the centre’s comparatively low level of service retailers compared to the other district centres. The centre trades well, and again we concur with it’s designation as a district centre.
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Roborough
5.48 Roborough District Centre is similar in character to Estover in that the centre comprises a single supermarket (Tesco) with six individual unit shops occupied by independent traders. The total amount of floor space is 5,890sq.m. net. As with Estover the retail offer is reflective of the dominance of the supermarket. and although technically a district centre in terms of PPS6 in our view the centre can only be characterised as a very small district centre. This is generally consistent with the Council’s designation.
St Budeaux
5.49 This centre is linear in nature and is situated along Wolseley Road. The Victoria Road local centre is situated not far up the hill to the North. The total amount of floor space within the centre is 4,265sq.m. net and includes a Spar and Co-op food stores (and we understand with Lidl interested in constructing a store at the Southern end of the centre). Despite the two convenience stores there is a comparatively low level of convenience floor space overall at only 12%. Comparison floor space is at 28% with A1 services at 26%, and Classes A2 to A5 at 28%. There are a small number of vacant units, and overall we consider the centre is healthy and agree with the Council’s designation of it as a district centre.
Transit W ay
5.50 This district centre shares many characteristics with Estover and Robough in that the majority of floor space is contained within a single food store, in this case a 4,750sq.m. net Tesco. The total floorspace is spread 44% for convenience, 30% for comparison and 22% for classes A2 to A5. The household survey has revealed Transit Way performs well which is largely attributable to the presence of the Tesco.
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5.51 We therefore generally concur with the Council’s designation of this centre as a district centre.
Out of Centre Retail Facilities
5.52 Plymouth has a number of free standing stores, and stores clustered together on retail parks
5.52 In terms of retail parks, the main location in the City is at Longbridge Road and Coypool Road both at Marsh Mills. These developments have been incremental and operate as two separate parks, with the Longbridge Road scheme being the more accessible and recognisable. Surface level car parking is available with both schemes and both seem popular attractions.
5.53 A smaller agglomeration of comparison retail units is located on the south side of Laira Bridge on the western side of the river Plym. Further comparison traders are located on the A379 heading east over the Laira bridge towards Pomphlett.
5.54 To the North of the city, what was a small retail park on the A386 Tavistock road at Crownhill has now been converted to a single large store for B&Q, with adjacent A3 drive through restaurant facilities.
Retail Commitments
5.55 In addition to the Drake Circus development mentioned above, there are a number of extant planning permissions in the city for retail proposals (based on information supplied to us by the City Council). Some of these are very modest in scale and therefore of no significance to this assessment. However, a number are large enough to be of relevance and these are listed below: • Land at Colin Campbell Court: 8,700sq.m. net comparison floor space (although only 2,453sq.m. when demolitions are taken into account);
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• 13-21 Old Town Street/1-11 New George Street: 1,315sq.m. net comparison floor space; • Laira Bridge Road (Former Western National bus depot): 5,000sq.m. net comparison floor space.
We have assumed that these commitments will be implemented in the near future, and have therefore deducted them from the quantitative capacity position as at 2006.
Retail Proposals
5.56 Within the city there are two significant retail proposals where applications have been received but not determined by the City Council. Technically, these are not commitments and therefore do not need to be included in the quantitative analysis in this assessment. However, for the sake of completeness we note that the proposals are as follows: • Honnicknowle site (Chelverton Deeley Freed): proposal for a DIY unit of 4,881sq.m. net, or a general bulky goods store of 3,951sq.m. net; • Land bounded by Duke Street, Chapel Street and Granby Way, Devonport: mixed use development including retail floor space of 2,323sq.m. gross, including a food store; • There was also a proposal at Plymstock Quarry by Westbury Homes, although we understand the application is now withdrawn. Nevertheless, for the sake of completeness we comment on this later in our report.
Centres Competing with Plymouth
5.57 We have been able to determine the geographical area from which the City is likely to derive most of its retail expenditure (see section 6 on assessment methodology), in particular using weighted retail catchment plan modelling on specialist computer software. Within this area there are a number of centres
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which may compete to some extent with Plymouth for retail expenditure such as Bodmin and Tavistock. However, none of these are able to provide anything like the range and scale of retail facilities available in the City Centre.
5.58 Looking beyond the Plymouth catchment area, there is little competition to the West, except for perhaps Truro. However, to the East is Exeter approximately 35 miles or just under one hour’s drive from Plymouth. Less distant, but less attractive in retail terms to the East are also Torquay and Paignton.
5.59 Exeter is, as confirmed earlier in our report, the other sub-regional shopping centre within Devon and provides significant competition for Plymouth. As noted in table 4.2 above, DTZ rank Exeter as 3rd in the region compared with Plymouth at 6th. Whilst Exeter has a smaller population than Plymouth (113,300 compared with 248,150), and less overall retail floor space (119,535sq.m. gross compared with 144,500sq.m. gross) qualitatively it can be said that Exeter is similar to Plymouth in retail terms. This is both in terms of identity of retailers within the City, and also the environmental quality of the centre. Like Plymouth, Exeter also has a significant new retail development coming on-stream in the short term, called the Princesshay scheme (by Land Securities). This will provide an additional 17,700sq.m. net comparison shopping floor space, including a replacement department store for Debenhams and units for comparison retailers such as Next, Zara, Virgin and Top Shop. This new development will at least maintain the level of competition with Plymouth
5.60 Beyond this, we have also identified a number of more distant retail locations with which Plymouth will only compete to a much more limited extent (if at all), but which are useful for comparison purposes in terms of testing the overall vitality and viability of Plymouth since they are at least similar (or higher) in the retail hierarchy. The centres we have considered are as follows: • Bath • Bournemouth
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• Bristol • Bristol Cribs causeway • Cheltenham • Swindon
5.61 We set out below a table indicating the relative national retail ranking of these centres and changes over the last five years:
Table 5.4: Centre Retail Rankings Experian Centre Rankings VenueScore Centre Rank Centre 2001 2002 2003 2004 Ranking trend 2005
Bath 37 26 30 38 27 Bournemouth 154 112 - - 83
Bristol 14 20 20 24 20
Cheltenham 32 30 34 36 21 Cribbs Causeway 41 45 43 44 69 Exeter 48 36 35 33 34 Plymouth 28 31 36 29 36 Swindon 79 70 - - 55
Notes: 1. Experian and VenueScore are different ranking systems; 2. VenueScore formerly known as Management Horizons;
5.62 The data indicates that Bournemouth, Exeter and Swindon are all locations that are generally improving, whereas Bath, Bristol and Cheltenham have only maintained their position. Both Cribbs Causeway and Plymouth seem to be on a declining trend. This data is only a very broad-brush analysis and should be treated with caution, not least because the two ranking systems are not directly compatible, and also because developments in the next few years will effect these rankings.
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5.63 However, combined with the data above on rents and yields, it does provide a comparison in the relative performance of the centres, and their health. Overall, what it indicates is that further investment in Plymouth is necessary. In the short- term this will be achieved with the Drake Circus development, but in the medium to longer term further investment and development will be required if Plymouth is to continue to at least maintain it’s attractiveness, and address identified qualitative deficiencies.
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6 QUANTITATIVE CAPACITY ASSESSMENT
6.1 We set out in this section the methodology for our quantitative retail assessment, including key assumptions and the results of the assessment itself.
Methodology and Assumptions
6.2 In order to establish a sound empirical base for the quantitative element of the assessment, it was agreed with the City Council that a new household telephone survey should be undertaken in order to establish the shopping habits and preferences of those living in Plymouth and in the retail catchment area generally. The last survey data is now six years old, and thus a new survey is consistent with the advice in PPS6.
6.3 For the purposes of our assessment we have assumed the same catchment area as previously utilised in the CBHP/CBRE assessments. This is because we do not consider the catchment area is likely to have changed significantly, and also because it will allow easier comparison of the results of this latest assessment with the earlier assessments (see chapter 4).
6.4 We have also utilised the majority of the original CBHP/CBRE survey zones within the catchment area although we have redefined the zones within the city centre itself (our zones 1-12) in order to better reflect certain physical features within the city e.g. the A38.
6.5 A plan of the survey area and its zones (derived from postcodes) is attached as appendix 1. A copy of the household telephone survey questionnaire is attached as appendix 2. It can be seen that the survey questionnaire is comprehensive, and included questions on both convenience and comparison shopping habits and preferences, and also leisure activities.
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6.6 The overall sample size of the survey was 2165, and this is a robust sample size for the catchment area. The number of questionnaire response for each survey zone has been weighted according to the resident population within each zone. Population data has been obtained from Experian and is based on the 2001 census. Experian provide population projections to 2016. Since this assessment considers capacity up to 2026 we have extended the growth rates per zone consistent with the rates suggested by Experian for 2006-2016. Attached as appendix 3 is the distribution of survey responses per zone.
6.7 In discussion with the City Council it has been agreed to manually adjust the anticipated population of certain zones, particularly within zones 1-12 to reflect the aspirations and objectives of the emerging regional spatial strategy, and local development framework for Plymouth.
6.8 We have also obtained expenditure data from Experian. We have obtained an average expenditure figure for all of the zones within the catchment area. The expenditure per capita therefore remains constant. Using the data from Experian, we are able to sub-divide expenditure per capita into expenditure per capita on different ranges of goods, namely convenience goods and comparison goods. We have also then sub-divided the comparison goods expenditure per capita to reflect certain ranges of goods e.g. clothing and footwear, electrical items etc. These have been chosen to reflect likely market sectors for retailers, and the questions in the household telephone questionnaire have been similarly sub-divided.
6.9 Various deductions have been made from the expenditure per capita figures for both convenience and comparison goods. For convenience goods a deduction of 0.7% has been made to reflect the impact of ‘special forms of trading’. This reflects the money spent by shoppers on home delivery and internet shopping. We have kept the rates constant into the future. For comparison goods, similar deductions have been made, but at different rates for different ranges of goods reflecting the latest advice from Experian in their Retail Planner Briefing Note 3.0
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(March 2006). As with convenience goods we have maintained this at a constant rate into the future.
6.10 We recognise that rates for special forms of trading are likely to change (increase) into the future. However, there is insufficient data to predict the likely magnitude of change at this time, hence we have maintain constant rates. We recommend that the position is kept under review, and adjustments made at the time of the City Council’s next quantitative assessment.
6.11 By combining the bespoke population and expenditure data with the household survey responses, it is then possible to generate a quantitative assessment of turnover figures and market shares for the various retail facilities across the City.
6.12 Looking at the position as a whole in 2006 for the various retail facilities in the City, we have bench-marked the turnover performance of the most relevant of these against known Company average turnovers for various retailers, and for the City Centre as a whole against our expectations for that centre based on evidence from other centres (and also the previous assessment work undertaken for the Council).
6.13 Where turnovers exceed benchmark performance by more than a minimum amount (and especially where this results in adverse effects from over-trading), such may be assessed as immediate capacity for additional floor space in the base year.
6.14 Looking to the future, we have projected forward the total pools of expenditure for convenience and comparison goods within the city’s catchment area at 5 year intervals (2011, 2016, 2021, 2026) consistent with the advice in PPS6. We have also then projected forward the turnovers of existing facilities at constant market shares into the future (unless changes are likely e.g. Drake Circus). Having made deductions for floor space efficiency (see below) and also commitments, we are
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then able to assess the scope for additional floor space within the City at any of the test years.
6.15 The annual growth rates for expenditure per head per annum into the future have been sourced from Experian (Retail Planner Briefing Note 2.0) and the rates we have utilised are 0.7% for convenience goods and 4.3% for comparison goods respectively. These figures reflect the ultra-long term trend (effectively the period between 1965 and 2003) which is the most robust and conservative of Experian’s rates. Since the commencement of our study Experian have published Retail Planner Briefing Note version 3.0 (March 2006). The corresponding trend rates have changed slightly to 0.6% and 4.7% respectively, however in order to be robust (in relation to comparison goods) we have retained the original rates from version Note 2.0.
General Household Survey Results
6.16 A copy of the survey results is attached as appendix 4.
Convenience Goods
6.17 In terms of main food shopping a significant proportion (40%) choose their store based on its location in terms of convenience to home. 8.6% and 8.2% choose in relation to price and quality respectively, and 5.9% choose in relation to ‘general convenience to get to’.
6.18 In terms of mode of travel, a significant majority (70.8%) travel by private car, and a further 10.4% travel with someone else in a car. The same proportion (10.4%) walk (this is a relatively high figure), and 5.1% travel by bus.
6.19 The majority of shoppers (61%) under-take a main food shopping trip once a week, 17.2% two or three times a week, and 11.2% once a fortnight.
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6.20 40% of shoppers do not link their main food shopping trip with any other type of trip. Only 6% under-take the trip to or from the way to work.
Comparison Goods
6.21 About 60% of shoppers within the catchment visit Plymouth for comparison shopping purposes at some point.
6.22 Of these, 38.6% combine a shopping trip with a visit to a café, restaurant or pub. About 17% combine the trip with a visit to the market (indicating it’s importance) and about the same proportion using other services e.g. financial and professional. About 12% also go food shopping. A significant proportion (28.5%) do not combine a comparison shopping trip to Plymouth City Centre with any other purpose.
6.23 In terms of mode of travel the majority (56.6%) travel into the City Centre by car. 22.3% travel by bus or coach, and 12.4% walk. Only 6.2% use park and ride, and an even smaller proportion (0.5%) use the train. The latter may reflect the relatively poor linkage into the City Centre.
6.24 Of those that drive to the City Centre, about half view the parking as expensive, and about 42% experience congestion. However, only 1.5% commented that there were not enough spaces overall.
General Demographics
6.25 Of all those questioned 22.7% lived in single adult households. 62% lived with another adult. 71.4% of all households had no children living at home. 14.3% of households do not have a car.
6.26 25% of those questioned were at least 65 years old, and almost half of these were at least 75 years old.. When compared to the national average statistic of 16%
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above the age of 65, this indicates Plymouth has a higher than average proportion of elderly residents.
6.27 Unemployment rates appear low at 1.8%. However, of all those interviewed 34.3% were retired. This generally reflects the age profile above.
Quantitative Capacity Convenience Goods
6.28 Tables 1-16 in appendix 5 provide the data for our quantitative assessment.
6.29 At 2006 we calculate that within the City (zones 1-12) total available convenience goods expenditure is approximately £383.2m. This total pool of expenditure is spent in a large number of stores across the City, both for main food and top-up shopping trip purposes. As one would expect, the larger stores are generally able to capture the largest shares of this expenditure.
6.30 There is some inflow of expenditure from those living beyond the City, and also some out-flow, particularly to the East to the Tesco at Lee Mill.
6.31 In a City such as Plymouth we anticipate that a significant proportion of the total pool of expenditure will be spent on top-up shopping trips. This is confirmed by the household survey results. Across the overall catchment area about 80% of shoppers undertake top-up shopping trips, and in Plymouth the proportion rises slightly to 81.6%. We have therefore assumed that 30% of available expenditure is spent on such trips.
6.32 Combining the responses to the survey questions on main-food and top-up shopping with the relevant pools of expenditure we have been able to calculate market shares and turnovers for stores within the City and beyond. We have then bench-marked the main stores’ performance against company average turnover data from Retail Rankings 2005 to assess the extent of any over-trading within
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stores, and hence immediate potential capacity for floor space and development within the City.
6.33 Below is a table of the main stores’ performance in the City, and the location of these stores is marked on the plan at appendix 6.
Table 6.1: Main Food Stores in Plymouth Store / location Survey Zone Turnover Under / over (£m) trading (%) Asda, Estover 10 30.36 -16 Morrisons, Outlands Road 7 35.75 +88 Morrisons, Plymstock 12 29.22 -35 Sainsbury, Armada Centre 1 30.68 +52 Sainsbury, Marsh Mills 7 53.58 +55 Somerfield, Plymstock 12 9.79 +40 Tesco Metro, New George St 1 23.08 +87 Tesco, Honicknowle 6 43.83 +31 Tesco, Roborough 10 38.25 +18
Notes: 1. Includes turnover of stores from beyond Plymouth i.e. beyond zones 1-12; 2. Based on table 12, appendix 5;
6.34 The survey indicates that the best performing store in terms of company average in Plymouth is the Morrisons store on Outlands Road, and the best performing store in absolute terms is the Sainsbury at Marsh Mills.
6.35 We find the results for the Asda at Estover and Morrisons at Plymstock surprising, and not reflective of our own observations of those stores, both of which are large attractive stores. In reality, it is likely these stores are therefore trading at about company average levels in convenience goods.
6.36 The Tesco at Roborough does not appear to be trading significantly in excess of company average levels, possibly reflecting it’s location in the extreme North of
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the City and the availability of competing stores further to the South including Asda.
6.37 The other main competing store is the Tesco at Honicknowle (Transit Way). The survey indicates this store is trading slightly more successfully than Roborough, at levels 30% or more in excess of company average. We consider this reflects it’s more central position in the City and residential areas. Our observations confirm it is a popular and busy store, and the shopper survey confirms that a significant proportion of the store’s trade is derived from residents living in survey zone 5 i.e. Weston Mill and St Budeaux (about £9.8m). Much of this could potentially be ‘captured’ by a new food store in those areas, if such a store is of sufficient scale to compete.
6.38 Situated further to the East of Weston Mill in the Pennycross/Hartley area is the Morrisons store on Outlands Road. This is clearly the other main destination for residents of zone 5, attracting about £11.8m. Again much of this could potentially be claimed by a new food store in the Weston Mill area, assuming such a store is of a suitable format and operated by an attractive retailer capable of providing primarily for main food shopping trips.
6.39 The food stores in the City Centre appear to be trading well. Top-up shopping is an important element of these store’s turnover, particularly the Tesco Metro format on New George Street which is specifically targeted at serving high footfall locations with predominantly basket shoppers.
6.40 As a consequence there may be scope for additional convenience floor space within the City Centre in quantitative terms, although given the choice and quality of existing stores such is not a high priority in our view.
6.41 Sainsbury at Marsh Mills is arguably the most well known and high profile store in the City, because of it’s highly prominent location adjacent the A38 and it’s iconic roof structure. Our observations indicate that the large majority of the
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store’s trade is from car borne shoppers undertaking bulk shopping trips. Trading conditions within the store and car park at peak periods can therefore be congested.
6.42 It might be argued that this could be qualitative grounds to extend the store still further, although given it’s out of centre location we would advise a cautious approach to such. In any event, we anticipate the turnover of the store will already have been reduced slightly by the competitive effects of the new Tesco at Lee Mill to the East along the A38. Nevertheless, an additional food store in a sequentially preferable location somewhere within the North and North East of the City that would be attractive to shoppers currently served by the Sainsbury could be a logical planning policy goal. We understand that planning permission has been granted for an extension of the Sainsbury store (1,393sq.m. net , but restricted to comparison goods only), and this will be likely to enhance the attractiveness of the store to shoppers.
6.43 In total, the main stores identified in table 6.1 have a combined turnover of £294.58m. The survey indicates that £251.63m (85.4%) of this is derived from residents of the City (zones 1-12). In turn this equates to about 65% of the total available convenience turnover from City residents.
6.44 The remaining 35% (£131.57m) is either dispersed around a much larger number of smaller shops in the City, or alternatively is spent in stores beyond the City. We calculate that at least £40.2m is spent in stores outside the City, £29.7m alone of which is spent at the Tesco at Lee Mill. This equates to a expenditure ‘leakage’ rate of about 10.5% from the City as a whole. In our experience this is unlikely to be significantly reduced.
6.45 Looking forward to the test years at 2011-2026 we calculate the growth in convenience expenditure within the City (zones 1-12) based on expenditure growth per capita and population growth (and assuming a constant 90% market share) will be as follows:
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• By 2011 £17.22m • By 2016 £37.48m • By 2021 £79.95m • By 2026 £116.91m
6.46 The figures beyond 2016 are extremely indicative, and should not be planned for at this stage through allocations. The same may also apply to the estimate for 2016.
6.47 Overall, our assessment indicates no immediate allocations for food stores are required up to 2011, excluding those contemplated at Derriford, Devonport, Plymstock Quarry and Weston Mill.
6.48 As is often the case with surveys of the type under-taken some questionable results have been derived in terms of individual store turnovers. These have been brought to our attention following the publication of the Interim Final Draft for consultation purposes.
6.49 The first of these is that there is no Lidl store in Plymouth town centre. The quantitative tables indicated this generated main-food and top-up turnover of £0.908m and £0.200m respectively. There are two other Lidl stores operating in the City, and given their geographical position within the urban area we anticipate the relevant expenditure could simply be re-apportioned between those stores.
6.50 Also, the analysis indicated the Plymco stores at St Budeaux and Wolseley Road have turnovers of £0.4m and £2.01m respectively. These would be very poor turnovers for these stores against company average, and our observations indicate these stores at trading at about company average level (and this has subsequently been confirmed in discussion with the store operator). Based on the net convenience sales areas of those stores this would equate to turnovers of
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about £3.5m and £4m respectively. Indeed, there is anecdotal evidence to suggest the store at St Budeaux trades in excess of company average levels.
6.51 However, as we have confirmed above we have not sought in this study to model in great detail the convenience shopping turnovers and patterns of every centre in the City. Rather, we have sought to model overall patterns, and provide general guidance as to the overall health of the most significant centres. We have therefore not amended the turnover figures derived by the survey, but recognise that as more detailed work is prepared, manual adjustments may be appropriate.
Comparison Goods
6.52 Tables 1-41 in appendix 7 provide the data for our quantitative assessment.
6.53 As noted above about 60% of all those interviewed do visit Plymouth City Centre at some point for comparison shopping purposes. However, this does not necessarily equate to the City’s market share of expenditure. This is derived from a more complex analysis of responses in relation to shoppers’ preferences in respect of different ranges of goods (that in themselves generally attract different proportions of an individual’s personal expenditure, as advised by Experian’s Retail Planner Briefing Note 3.0).
6.54 We have therefore combined the various pools of expenditure for different ranges of goods with the survey responses, before aggregating these together to form overall turnover indications for individual centres and retail parks.
6.55 At 2006, our analysis indicates that within the Plymouth catchment area a total of about £1.245 billion is available. Of this Plymouth City Centre attracts about £637.05m, or 51.1%. This is 3.3% lower than the equivalent CBHP/CBRE estimate (although excludes spending by tourists, which CBHP/CBRE assumed at 2.5%).
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6.56 We have assumed a further 10% is attracted from shoppers resident beyond the catchment area (including tourists), in particular those resident further West into Cornwall (whereas those to the East are more likely to shop in Exeter).
6.57 We have also considered the extent to which tourists contribute to comparison goods expenditure in the City each year. Research (Economic Impact of Tourism in Plymouth, August 2001, Plymouth Marketing Bureau) indicated that Plymouth receives approximately 787,000 staying visitor (trips) per year, 93% of these being from domestic visitors. Further research (Plymouth Visitor Survey 2004:Final Report, December 2004, South West Tourism) indicated that staying visitor spend (per person, per night) is £10.83 on ‘shopping’ (as opposed to eating out etc). Therefore, as a rough estimate annual shopping expenditure by staying tourist in Plymouth per annum is £8.5m (no particular price base).
6.58 There are also a considerable number of non-staying visitors to the City each year (day-trippers). Research (August 2001 as above) suggests these number 4 million per annum. The December 2004 research suggests these visitors spend on average £17.27. Therefore, again as a rough estimate day-tripper expenditure would equate to £69m (no particular price base).
6.59 Thus, total tourist expenditure is indicated at £77.5m/annum. This represents in the order of 6.2% of available comparison expenditure within the catchment area. However, in our view by no means all of this will be spent in high street shopping locations, and thus theoretically able to support additional floor space over time. We note that in previous retail assessment work (CBRE 2004, table 5a) an assumption was made that tourist expenditure contributed a further 2.5% to comparison expenditure (across the study area as a whole, not just Plymouth City Centre). We generally agree with this analysis.
6.60 Therefore, either applying the 2.5% figure to the total pool of expenditure (£1.245 billion), or the City Centre’s market share (51.1%) to £77.5m, indicate that at best ‘shopping’ expenditure by tourists in the City Centre is about £39.5m
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per annum. However, since this figures is, in our view, a very course estimate we have made an allowance for this within the overall 10% of expenditure assumed to come from residents living beyond the study area.
6.61 Adding in the 10% of expenditure from beyond the catchment indicates Plymouth City Centre has a total comparison turnover of about £700.76m. We estimate that Plymouth has a current stock of net comparison floor space of 101,238sq.m. (including demolitions from Drake Circus)(source: City Council survey 2005, CBRE 2004 table 5a and our own observations). This therefore equates to a trading ‘density’ of £6,922/sq.m.. This is about 20% above our anticipated bench-mark performance for Plymouth of £5,730/sq.m. This indicates the City Centre is performing relatively well, at least in numerical terms, and that additional comparison shopping floor space is required. In the short- term this need will be satisfied by the Drake Circus development.
6.62 This is, however, not the sum total of comparison shopping turnover in the City since there are also a number of district and local centres, retail parks and free- standing stores.
6.63 In terms of district and local centres, as is often the case with these forms of shopper survey we consider that the survey responses do not fully reflect the turnover of those facilities. Primarily this is because people often only mention the larger destinations for their shopping trips, or are otherwise vague in terms of their response. We have therefore sought to estimate the total comparison turnover for individual district and local centres, based on the survey evidence, the Council’s 2005 floor space survey data, details of tenants, and our own observations. Attached as appendix 8 is a list of the centres, and our estimate of their turnover. This indicates the total comparison goods turnover for these centres is £125.14m Attached as appendix 9 is a location plan of the district and local centres.
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6.64 Turning to retail parks, the survey indicates that combined, these retail parks have a total turnover of £155.68m. Given the bench-mark performance of the various retailers on these parks our analysis indicates that there is potentially some over- trading albeit this is unlikely to be significant, and hence there appears to be no immediate need for additional (out of centre) floor space generally. Attached as appendix 10 is a list of the parks and their tenants, and as appendix 11 a location plan of these facilities.
6.65 Overall, we estimate the City’s combined comparison goods turnover in 2006 (2003 prices) to be £917.87m equating to an overall market share of 73.7% of catchment expenditure (this excludes the additional turnover to the City Centre from beyond the study area). This is somewhat higher than the equivalent CBRE figure (2004 study, table 6b, at 67.45%). In our view the difference is explained by the inclusion of the District and Local centres’ turnover in our assessment. With the exclusion of these centres the net result is that the overall market shares for the City as a whole are broadly comparable with earlier work.
6.66 The Drake Circus redevelopment is anticipated to open for trading in the later part of 2006 (achieving a qualitative boost). We understand the scheme will have a net comparison sales area of 30,000sq.m. Given the trading density of other, less modern floor space in the City Centre we anticipate this scheme will have an average trading density of about £6,500/sq.m. This indicates a total scheme turnover in the order of £195m.
6.67 Assuming that the City has an ‘equilibrium’ trading position at 2006, such a scheme will require a market share uplift in order to support itself (of 15.6%). Whilst we anticipate the scheme will improve Plymouth’s overall retention of expenditure, because of competitive effects e.g. the Princesshay scheme in Exeter, we do not anticipate the Drake Circus scheme will achieve this level of market share up-lift. We anticipate it will achieve about 7.5%. The net result of this would be a ‘deficit’ in capacity of about £101.5m in 2006. However, as the analysis in table 38 appendix 7 indicates, this potential deficit can be off-set
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against the existing over-trading within the City Centre comparison shops. Assuming the turnover of existing comparison floor space returns to about equilibrium position (£5,730/sq.m.), then there is capacity for the Drake Circus development at 2006 (as suggested in previous retail capacity studies for the Council). This is therefore the basis on which we have assessed capacity in the City going forward from 2006 (see appendix 12).
6.68 We recognise the market shares utilised in this assessment arising from the new survey data are only a snap-shot position in the same way the CBHP/CBRE figures were derived. Therefore, further survey work not less than a year after the opening of Drake Circus and Princesshay could be undertaken to confirm the position. We consider that the anticipated market share for the City as a whole at 2006 (81,2% including Drake Circus) is relatively high and limits the potential for further increases, without drawing trade from much further beyond our study area giving rise to issues of sustainability.
6.69 Looking forward to the various study ‘test’ years of 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026, growth in comparison expenditure, and making allowance for other known commitments and also efficiency (at 1.5% per annum on all floor space / turnover within the City) we calculate the overall capacities to be: • 2011 £158.43m • 2016 £428.77m • 2021 £859.27m • 2026 £1,442.54m Note: these calculations assume constant market shares, having assumed an uplift for Drake Circus of 7.5%.
6.70 The calculation of these figures is set out in appendix 12.
6.71 It is possible to translate these predicted expenditure capacities into floor space. Assuming development within the City Centre, utilising our 2006 benchmark turnover of £6,500/sq.m. (as applied to the Drake Circus scheme – see above), and in the case of out of centre development at £4,000/sq.m. and allowing for a
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1.5% increase per annum, the following net floor space equivalent bands are derived: • 2011 22,631sq.m. – 36,775sq.m. • 2016 56,866sq.m. – 92,407sq.m. • 2021 105,756sq.m. – 171,854sq.m. • 2026 164,880sq.m. – 267,930sq.m.
6.72 We recommend that these seemingly large figures are treated with caution. Not only are they dependant on a range of assumptions about significant population growth being realised, but that must also be considered in the context of other qualitative indicators of Plymouth’s retail health.
6.73 In qualitative terms we consider the Drake Circus scheme is entirely appropriate, since without it Plymouth’s market share would be likely to be eroded due the effects of competing schemes, most notably Princesshay in Exeter City Centre.
6.74 Our analysis indicates that the opening of Drake Circus is likely to have relatively significant effects on other shopping facilities in the City. Given it’s location and likely tenant mix, any effects of the scheme are likely to be most keenly felt by other City Centre traders. It has already been announced that some traders will be transferring from existing units into the new scheme when it opens, including Virgin, Boots and Next. We anticipate others will be announced in due course.
6.75 Other City Centre traders may suffer the effects of competition from these new, more attractive retail units once Drake Circus commences trading, and either experience reduced levels of turnover, or in some cases even cease trading altogether.
6.76 It is also possible that the Drake Circus scheme may open not fully let. We consider this is less likely than the scenarios above, although anecdotal evidence suggests the scheme may be having some minor problems letting.
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6.77 Notwithstanding the relatively healthy quantitative trading position our study has identified for the City Centre, because of the relatively week tenant demand we anticipate a period of ‘consolidation’ of about five years may be required. During this time it is likely the Council will need to exercise caution in terms of permitting significant new retail development in the City, especially in edge or out of centre locations. At the same time, concerted efforts will be required to maximise the undoubted benefits that the Drake Circus scheme is capable of bringing to the City Centre.
6.78 Nevertheless, the quantitative assessment does indicate a need to consider planning for additional floor space in the period up to 2016 initially, and possibly subsequently beyond 2016 if capacity and need is confirmed by further survey and analysis in due course.
6.79 We comment on these matters in greater detail below.
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7 RETAILER DEMAND
7.1 One of the indicators of vitality and viability of retail centres in PPS6 is ‘retailer representation and intentions to change representation’. Whilst we have already commented upon the existing range of retailers across the city, it is also important to assess the likely future retailer demand across the city.
7.2 Cushman & Wakefield is able to undertake this analysis using several data sources: • published retailer demand lists such as those provided by Focus; • anecdotal evidence from our own day to day discussions with retailers, since Cushman & Wakefield is active in the retail leasing market in Plymouth; and • a bespoke survey of retailer demand for the City
7.3 General published retailer demand lists should be treated with caution. Some retailers register interests when they have firm requirements, others do not register their interest at all, and other retailers who are registered may subsequently withdraw their interest if competing retailers secure representation within the City. Cushman & Wakefield is able to substantially refine this analysis by drawing on our activities within the retail leasing market in Plymouth. This will include unpublished retailer requirements into the future, particularly for further major retail development within the city centre.
7.4 In terms of published requirements lists, the latest data from Focus lists 26 comparison retailers with requirements in Plymouth. The largest demand for space is from the clothing and footwear retailers who have a diverse requirement from as little as 19sq.m. up to 2,787sq.m. gross. The remaining demand for space is evenly distributed through the other retailing categories, such as audio visual, electrical goods, health and beauty and furniture. Overall Focus indicates demand for space is relatively weak.
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7.5 Attached at appendix 13 is a breakdown of the floor space requirements of retailers seeking space in Plymouth as listed by Focus.
7.6 In order to verify this data we have prepared a bespoke survey of retailers specifically for this assessment. A copy of the questionnaire sent to retailers, both with and without representation within the City is attached in appendix 14. In total 80 questionnaires we sent to retailers, and 20 retailers responded. Overall the responses were split evenly between those currently represented and those who are not.
7.7 The most frequent requirement for (large amounts of) floor space was from the convenience retailers, although this reflects the position nationally.
7.8 Of the comparison retailers who indicated a requirement for new floor space, two comparison retailers not currently present in Plymouth indicated their intention to take space in the Drake Circus development. There were also three retailers present in Plymouth City Centre who indicated they would relocate to Drake Circus towards the end of the year.
7.9 Overall our survey findings reinforce the Focus data, which indicates weak demand for floor space from comparison traders. In addition our survey indicated retailers perceptions that Drakes Circus would be an improvement to the retailing offer of the City Centre, but the resultant movement of some retailers to Drake Circus and away from their existing units will undoubtedly create vacancies within the existing shopping streets. These will take some time to re-let, given the level of demand.
7.10 This echoes the comments of our retail agency colleagues.
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8 SW OT ANALYSIS OF PLYMOUTH
City Centre
8.1 Having regard to the analysis and findings of the previous chapters of this study, we set out below a summary point analysis of the main strengths and weakness of the City Centre in retail terms, the opportunities for it’s enhancement and the threats that may prevent that potential being achieved.
Strengths
• The City Centre is well laid-out physically, in terms of presenting shoppers with relatively easily legible street patterns and circuits, which no doubt benefit customer flows in the principal streets; • Most of the City Centres shopping streets are fully or partly pedestrianised; • The City Centre has a good range of department stores; • The City Centre has a good range of middle market national multiple retailers; • Drake Circus will introduce some new retailers (Primark) as well as better units for existing retailers in the City; • Car parking is relatively plentiful, and well dispersed around the central core; • The City Centre is relatively close to the historic waterside of the Hoe and the Barbican; • The City Centre provides a range of these facilities – casino, concert/conference venue, leisure park; • The City as a whole is connected to the centre by a good bus network; • Road accessibility is generally good; • There is a good rail service to London and other locations.
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W eaknesses
• Limited range of upper-middle and upper market traders, when compared with Exeter and other regional centres; • Many of the City Centre units provide poor unit configuration, with inadequate depth and little room for expansion; • The Drake Circus development will shift the centre of retail gravity towards the extreme East of the central shopping area; • Many of the buildings in the City Centre are in a visually poor state of decoration, and some are of poor architectural quality; • Legibility from/to the railway station is poor;
Opportunities
• The Drake Circus development is very likely to result in a market share uplift for the City Centre • The new units should be of high quality and meet the requirements of modern retailers; • The increased footfall should provide spin-off benefits for other retailers and service providers across the City • Vacated units in the City’s prime retail core should provide an opportunity for others to seek new or improved representation; • Other spin-off benefits from Drake Circus should include enhanced rental levels, and hardening yields; • Improved rents and yields may make previously unattractive development proposals more viable; • There are potential development sites; • The built form of the City (a large-scale planned estate) has a certain quality of scale, with robust building form. Thus, the relatively poor
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environmental and cosmetic appearance of buildings may be soluble more easily;
Threats
• Competition from beyond Plymouth; • Pressure for out of centre or competing development within the City;
8.2 In summary, Plymouth City Centre has a number of important strengths on which it can build, not least the investment going into the Drake Circus development. The City Centre also has a number of weaknesses, although in our view none of these are fundamental and should be capable of being addressed over the next five years or so.
8.3 The City Centre is also fortunate that it has a number of opportunity sites to help it improve performance, and the threat from competing centres, whilst not to be under-estimated is in our opinion manageable. Perhaps the more crucial challenge for the City over the next decade or two will be to maximise the benefits of a growing population by encouraging the right development in the right location, and providing a positive climate for investors, developers and retailers.
District and Local Centres
8.4 Our analysis and observations indicate that the district centres in the City are generally all vital and viable, given their respective functions (described above). The exception to this is Crownhill, which in our view only serves the function of a local centre.
8.5 The district centres of Estover, Roborough and Transit Way are dominated by the presence of the food stores. Clearly, without these anchors they would offer little, if any, retail/service offer, other than would be found in a very small local
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centre. Nevertheless, in PPS6 terms these centres technically fulfil the definition of a district centre. In this context, the main food store operators are in a position to attempt to justify incremental expansion proposals. In our view, the local authority should ensure that any such proposals are consistent with the existing catchment area, role and function that those centres serve.
8.6 Turning to the City’s network of local centres, there are clearly a large number of these serving a diverse range of communities and functions. Some are more successful than others. The CBRE 2004 assessment looked at the position in detail, and in our view little has changed on the ground since then. The main issue to address is the future of Marlborough Street. Subject to implementation of the South Yard Enclave scheme, we recommend the City Council remove the designation of Marlborough Street as a local centre, and plan for it’s decline by allowing alternative use.
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9 OPPORTUNITY SITES ANALYSIS
9.1 The City Council’s brief for this shopping study requested consideration of a number of potential development opportunities, and the role that retail development may have in these locations. Specifically, the draft Core Strategy options to be considered included new centres at Derriford, Weston Mill and Millbay.
9.2 Further discussions with the City Council, and our own observations have resulted in a much larger list of other site opportunities to be considered. The consolidated list we have considered is: • The ‘Debenhams’ block; • The telephone exchange; • Bretonside bus depot; • Plymouth Central Station; • Millbay; • Devonport (Chapel Street); • Weston Mill; • Derriford; • Plymstock Quarry; • Marsh Mills; • Honicknowle; • Friary Court/Laira Embankment; • Sherford;
9.3 We assess each of these below, and plans of these sites are attached as Appendix 15.
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The Debenhams Block
9.4 This site comprises frontages at 1-21 Old Town Street and 1-11 New George Street. We are advised that in March 2002 Ravenseft Properties secured consent for construction of reconfigured floor space totalling 1,315sq.m. (net of demolitions) over three floors.
9.5 Given it’s proximity to the Drake Circus redevelopment we anticipate the site could prove particularly attractive to retailers seeking modern accommodation in an open street setting as opposed to a covered mall. Redevelopment would also be beneficial in townscape terms, and making more efficient use of the site generally. Loss of the internal car parking within the block is unlikely to be significant.
The Telephone Exchange Site
9.6 This site is located immediately to the South of the Drake Circus scheme. So far as we understand the exchange is still in active use, and experience suggests that such facilities can be very costly to relocate. We anticipate such could be the case here, and indeed may have prevented the site being incorporated within the Drake Circus scheme.
Bretonside Bus Depot
9.7 This is a relatively long-standing development opportunity and was reviewed in the CBHP 2000 report. With the completion of the Drake Circus scheme approaching, in qualitative terms we consider that development of the site for high street retail formats might only accentuate the qualitative problem of the shift in the centre of retail gravity to the East of the City Centre. However, we do consider the site as an edge of centre location, relatively well positioned to accommodate perhaps bulkier forms of retail, perhaps as part of a mixed use scheme, subject of course to the wider tests of PPS6 (need and impact).
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Plymouth Central Station
9.8 This site is situated North of the edge of the City Centre shopping area, via Armada Way and an under-pass beyond the inner ring-road. The station buildings and configuration are clearly in need of improvement, as are the linkages to the main shopping area. This may in part reflect the very low proportion of shoppers who arrive by train. Some ‘enabling’ development involving retail is a possible option. However, since the site is clearly divorced from the main retail core we recommend such should not be contemplated except in accordance with the sequential approach, and having considered the issue of impact.
Millbay
9.9 This is one of the sites/areas proposed for retail development as part of the Council’s draft Core Strategy. The Council have also prepared a draft Action Area Plan for this area and also the adjoining area of Stonehouse (to the West along Union Street and North of the Royal William Yard).
9.10 The area with the most immediate apparent development potential is around the inner basin, but there are clearly opportunities beyond this for example along the eastern side of the outer basin. The Mackay Vision also identified the axis linking the basins back in towards the town centre as an important linkage.
9.11 ‘Principle 3’ (of the Vision) proposes a high quality, mixed-use waterfront development of regional significance including shops, cafes, restaurants and other water related uses. Public space on the water front is also seen as a key element. ‘Principle 4’ proposes improved linkages with the City Centre.
9.12 We agree that the area could be capable of accommodating development of this nature. There are numerous examples of such successful schemes across the
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Country, quite often including retail and leisure uses e.g. Albert Dock Liverpool, Chatham Maritime, Gunwharf Quay Portsmouth etc.. Two of these schemes include significant retail development (Chatham and Gunwharf Quays) in the form of factory outlet shopping centres. We are advised that a factory outlet scheme was granted outline consent in 1999 on land at Royal William Yard, but was never implemented due to insurmountable difficulties over car parking.
9.13 However, in light of our quantitative assessment we consider that any retail development in the Millbay area should be limited in scale and/or nature to the immediate needs of the local area, or alternatively of a specialised nature that will not compete with or have any adverse effects on the nearby City Centre core. Even with improved linkages to the City Centre shopping area, we consider the area is likely to function as a separate location or ‘quarter’.
Devonport
9.14 This is another one of the sites/areas proposed for retail development as part of the Council’s draft Core Strategy. The Council has also prepared a draft Action Area Plan for this area. This follows on from the earlier consultation draft Devonport Development Framework (December 2003)
9.15 Devonport is viewed as a relatively deprived area of the City, with various problems including poor quality housing, run-down physical environment and lack of local services including shopping facilities. The 2004 Local Shopping Needs Study identified this area as being deficient in terms of convenience shopping facilities. Preferred Option 1 of the draft Action Area Plan includes provision for the creation of a new district shopping centre including a food store of 930sq.m. net, to replace the existing local centre on Marlborough Street.
9.16 The Marlborough Street centre comprises a limited range of convenience traders, very few comparison traders, and some service operators. Despite various efforts over a number of years to attract investment and enhance the centre, this has not
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happened and the centre has continued to struggle, and not adequately serve the needs of the local community, particularly for food shopping.
9.17 We are advised that an application for a mixed use scheme including a new food store has been submitted on Chapel Street on the former MOD site known as the South Yard Enclave. We are not aware of the proposed food store operator.
9.18 Should the application scheme be implemented, in our view there is the prospect of relocations and closure of stores at Marlborough Street, and the gradual further decline of that centre.
W eston Mill
9.19 The City Council’s shopping study brief referred to consideration of the Core Strategy preferred option of a new centre at Weston Mill, although we note that an Action Area Plan has not been prepared for this locality.
9.20 The 2004 Local Needs Shopping Study identified Weston Mill as an area of deficiency in terms of convenience shopping provision (the area being identified as that to the North of Wolseley Road and Outland Road). The same conclusion was made in terms of St Budeaux and Barne Barton, immediately to the North West of this area, and the St Budeaux by-pass.
9.21 In 2000 Asda were refused consent for a new stand-alone food store on a site adjacent the St. Budeaux by-pass and the cemetery, occupied by sports pitches. Since then Co-op have refreshed the frontage of their store in St Budeaux, but we understand have not completed a s106 agreement in order to release planning permission for an extension of the store.
9.22 A potential development site remains on the southern edge of the centre, between the railway line and Wolseley Road (identified in the previous shopping studies) although we understand this has been sold by the Council to a discount
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convenience operator. We have also been asked to consider an area of land at the junction of Wolseley Road and Weston Mill Drive, along with the sports ground site adjacent the St Budeaux by-pass, and the Camel Head MOD car park.
9.23 We consider that convenience shopping floor space in the general Weston Mill area could be improved. Of particular importance will be that any new food store is of sufficient size and attractiveness (including car parking provision) to shoppers to prevent the continued leakage of trade to the larger stores further afield at Transit Way (Tesco) and Morrisons (Outlands Road). Thus, this should be the initial starting point in terms of site identification, at least in retail terms.
9.24 In principle it is a reasonable proposition to attempt to create a district centre as part of any such new store development, albeit that this should not be at the expense of potential competition (and harmful impact) on the existing St Budeaux (or other nearby) centres. In our view St Budeaux’s general retail health indicates it is a centre with the prospect of remaining vital and viable for the foreseeable future, and any planning strategy should support that position. The Coop store trades in our view at about company average level, and we understand new investment is anticipated in the form of a Lidl store on a site adjacent the railway line at the southern end of the centre (as identified in the 2004 CBRE report).
9.25 Spatially and sequentially, we consider that St Budeaux centre is the best location for any new food store to serve the Weston Mill area. However we understand the City Council has thoroughly examined the potential for further development in the centre and has been unable to identify an opportunity that is suitable, available and viable (see for example the 2004 shopping study). In the circumstances it is appropriate to look at alternative locations and sites, assuming it can be demonstrated the vitality and viability of St Budeaux (or other centres) is not likely to be seriously harmed.
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9.26 Of the other sites we have considered, the MOD car park at Camel’s Head could prove to be the easier to deliver in terms of site acquisition and viability, although we understand there may be a question mark over it’s availability. We consider that accessibility could be provided from the residential areas opposite, although other sites might be better related to the residential population generally.
9.27 Land at the junction of Ferndale Road and Weston Mill Drive would be preferable to development of the nearby sports grounds themselves (and could have the potential to provide a new community focus linked to other facilities e.g. the primary school, and sports and social club). Development would of course involve the potential demolition and replacement of various buildings.
9.28 Turning to the issue of potential impact on the Coop in St Budeaux, the failure or otherwise of the company to complete a s106 agreement and implement a consent for an extension, though frustrating, is not a key consideration. Indeed, it could be said that the implementation of such in the future would enable the Coop to respond to any competition. Of more relevance is the new survey evidence obtained for this study, and recent observations of the store’s trading characteristics. We consider the likelihood is that the majority of the store’s trade is derived from smaller, top-up shopping trips, probably under-taken on foot on a frequent basis during the week. In these circumstances there is limited likelihood of harmful impact from a new store/district centre to the South of St Budeaux designed to capture main food shopping trips now going to Honicknowle and Outlands Road.
9.29 Given our findings above regarding over-trading at Honicknowle and Outlands Road, and the role of the Coop in St Budeaux, we recommend that if the Council does pursue the option of a new local centre anchored by a food store in the Weston Mill area, the food store should have a minimum of 1,500sq.m. and a maximum of 2,000sq.m. net convenience sales area (assuming a convenience sales density of about £12,000/sq.m.). This is generally consistent with the identified leakage. Net comparison sales space should be limited to no more than
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about 25% of the net convenience area, reflecting the likely role and function of the store, and again to minimise impact considerations. Any proposal in excess of these figures would have to be justified in the light of all the material considerations at the time.
9.30 In considering the potential for a new store or centre at Weston Mill we have had regard to the findings of the Asda inquiry and the Secretary of State’s decision in early 2000, over six years ago (and in turn based on evidence considered at an inquiry a year before that).
9.31 The Secretary of State refused the proposal for a number of reasons, including that it would not serve as a nucleus for a district shopping centre identified in the local plan (paragraph 11), that there might be other ways of meeting the need than a single large food store (paragraph 12), potential harmful impact on nearby centres including St Budeaux (paragraph 15), concerns about effects on the distributor road network (paragraph 16), and loss of open space (paragraph 17).
9.32 On the face of it these would seem to be matters which would perhaps indicate a proposal for a new food store at Weston Mill could be difficult to substantiate. However, we note that there have been a number of important changes in circumstances between the Asda scheme and that now contemplated by the City Council. In broad terms these are: • The national and strategic planning policy context has evolved, with new policy documents published; • The store would not be a standalone facility, but would form the nulcleus of a new centre; • The store size we have suggested is much smaller than the Asda proposal; • There have been changes in retail representation in the surrounding centres; • Other sites have not been developed for retail purposes e.g. the Plymco proposal in St Budeaux;
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• Further investment from convenience food store operators is being contemplated in and around the area; • The sites being examined by the Council for potential development are not identical to the Asda application site.
9.33 In this context, and on the basis there still appears to be a clear need for additional convenience floor space in this part of the City (accepted by the Secretary of State in his decision at Paragraph 12), the decision of the City Council to re-explore the matter of convenience floor space provision is logical.
Derriford
9.34 The Core Strategy has also identified Derriford as an area where a new district centre could be created, following the findings of the 2004 Local Need Shopping Study. The Council is preparing an Action Area Plan, and has consulted on an issues and options paper in February 2005.
9.35 Aside from the findings of the 2004 study, the general rationale for a new centre at Derriford is that a significant critical mass of employment generating uses (the hospital, airport, business park) has been developed and is continuing to grow, along with planned new residential development. However, there is not a convenient centre to serve the needs of those that do and will live and work in the area.
9.36 Moreover, we aware that a separate study for the Council (by Edaw) has recommended the concept of a ‘bi-polar’ economy in Plymouth, one pole being the City Centre and the other Derriford with its employment generating uses. The rationale is therefore that Derriford should have a ‘new heart’ including new shopping, eating, service and leisure opportunities.
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9.37 A simple spatial analysis reveals that this general rationale is reasonable. There is a gap within the existing provision of Crownhill local centre south of the B3413, the Tesco food store at Woolwell to the North, Southway local centre on Southway Drive to the North West, and the Asda at Estover to the East. Within the middle of this area is a free standing B&Q store and two drive thru A3 units (formerly the Crownhill retail park).
9.38 We understand that some of the initial urban design concepts for a new centre included a potentially very significant new district centre situated on the Tavistock Road between Crownhill Fort and the roundabout to the North. We understand the concepts would be a retail-led mixed use scheme, with a large quantum of comparison goods floor space complementing a range of other convenience retail and service operators. We understand the scale of retail floor space proposed could be of sub-regional significance.
9.39 In the light of our findings on the need for comparison floor space within the City (particularly retailer demand), the timing of any significant comparison development in Derriford will be of particular importance. We do not anticipate a quantitative need for such will arise until after 2016.
9.40 More fundamentally given the overall size, physical structure and other characteristics of the City, in our view it is essential that any comparison retailing at Derriford should always be complementary to the retail function of the City Centre retail core and not significantly competitive. Over time, given the anticipated scale of quantitative capacity across the City we anticipate some comparison shopping floor space provision at Derriford could be appropriate. It is, in our view, far too soon to quantify any such provision or contemplate it’s precise configuration and market sectors.
9.41 In order to recognise the immediate needs of the existing working and resident population in the area, and given the likely lead-in time periods for successfully planning and implementing new district centre development we consider it may
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be appropriate to identify scope for some limited shopping floor space provision now. We anticipate the most appropriate form of development would be on a district centre scale, anchored by a food store with complementary comparison floor space, and also providing a number of units suitable for occupation by other, small scale retailers, service operators and other community uses.
9.42 We consider a food store of the right qualities in this location may have beneficial effects in terms of reducing over-trading at the out of centre Sainsbury store at Marsh Mills, and also leakage of expenditure to the Tesco at Lee Mill, assuming it is in a prominent and accessible location in relation to the Tavistock Road. Moreover, we consider that such would be appropriate in the light of anticipated population growth in this part of Plymouth over the plan period and beyond.
Plymstock Quarry
9.43 The City Council have produced a draft Action Area Plan for the area of land on the North side of the A379. This extends to the East as far as the City’s administrative boundary, and includes part of the area to be occupied by substantial new residential development at Sherford.
9.44 The document confirms that the North Plymstock area is anticipated to be able to accommodate a maximum of about 1,500 dwellings. The Plan suggests that certain complementary development should also be provided including a new neighbourhood centre comprising a medium sized food store of up to 1,800sq.m. gross, subject to consideration of impact. The new centre should also provide supporting service uses for the local population.
9.45 As noted above, the main food store serving this area is the Morrisons store at Pomphlett, a free standing out of centre store, and the Somerfield store at Plymstock Broadway district centre (which also contains smaller Iceland and Lidl stores). Our assessment indicates that whilst the Somefield unit trades relatively well (slightly above company average) it is nevertheless mostly a top-up shopping
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destination. The Morrisons store on the other hand is a main-food shopping destination, highly accessible by car. Our survey indicates that it is trading no better than about average level for that retailer, perhaps reflecting the store’s somewhat limited natural catchment to the East of The River Plym and Laira Bridge.
9.46 We are aware that a planning application had been submitted to the City Council by Westbury Homes, although we understand this has now been withdrawn. This proposed various retail elements including: • A food store of 1,805sq.m. gross (1,173sq.m. net); • An unspecified number of comparison retail units totalling 6,695sq.m. net (CgMs 2005 Retail Assessment, table 3, pp.32), within a maximum unit size of 400sq.m. (para. 1.9); and • Other A2-A5 floor space.
9.47 We noted that the food store element of the proposal was consistent with the content of the draft Action Area Plan. However, based on our capacity assessment and up to date survey data there appears to be no immediate quantitative need for a new food store as part of the Plymstock Quarry proposals. As new housing is occupied, the local catchment expenditure will increase and a need for additional floor space will arise, but this will take time.
9.48 However, in policy terms the creation of a new neighbourhood centre anchored by a food store is logical. We anticipate that some of any such store’s trade would be diverted from the Morrisons store. Since this is an out of centre store any effects of this impact would not be a planning issue. However, it is also likely that some trade may be diverted from the convenience stores in Plymstock Broadway. The Council will need to satisfy themselves that any diversion of trade from the Broadway, or other centres, would be acceptable.
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9.49 In the light of our findings on the position in relation to comparison goods across the City, we would be concerned by the level of non-food unit shops originally proposed, and the potential effects of trade diversion on nearby centres including Plymstock Broadway.
Marsh Mills
9.50 This area to the North of the junction of the A38 with the A374 Plymouth Road is the City’s principal out of centre retail area. It comprises three separate parks (Marsh Mills, Coypool Road and Errill retail park), although we consider that because of their proximity and access arrangements that shoppers in reality see the three parks as a single shopping location.
9.51 The area has a number of physical, access and environmental issues that, if resolved, could improve the overall experience for shoppers to this area. However, the area has no explicit recognition at local planning policy level. In our view a policy designation in some form would not only reflect the advice in PPS6 that existing out of centre retail locations offer some benefits in terms of agglomeration of use and linked-trips, but also offer the prospect of enabling some of the problems above to be addressed, as and when further investment in the parks is made.
9.52 This is similar to the approach employed by Croydon Borough Council is respect of the bulky goods retail facilities at Purley Way.
9.53 An alternative policy strategy could be a complete prohibition on any further investment in this location that requires planning permission, by establishing a policy basis for refusing such applications in an attempt to encourage new investment to be made in sequential preferable locations.
9.54 However, we consider that Marsh Mills has a role and function to play in the retail hierarchy, and we therefore recommend the former.
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Honicknowle
9.55 This is an area of Plymouth predominantly located on the Western side of the junction of the A38 with the St Budeaux by-pass, although there is also a smaller area of land to the North East of the junction.
9.56 Historically, there has been an attempt to obtain permission for retail development on the land to the West. A proposal by B&Q was refused on appeal, and B&Q subsequently secured a site at Crownhill, and no further attempt has been made to secure retail consent at Honicknowle, until recently. We have been advised that Chelverton Deeley Freed have applied for consent to construct either a bulky goods and garden centre unit (of 5,578sq.m. gross) or a general bulky goods retail unit (of 4,648sq.m. gross).
9.57 Whilst we do not comment in detail here on the merits of the application, based on our assessment of the City as a whole we consider it would be challenging to establish a need for retail development in this location. Qualitatively, the site is only a few minutes drive from the Marsh Mills area, and we understand there may be suitable site opportunities for further development there that should be explored. In PPS6 terms Marsh Mills is a preferable location by virtue of agglomeration of use and potential for linked trips.
9.58 Quantitatively, we acknowledge that it may be possible to establish a need within a discrete goods category, for example DIY.
Friary Court / Laira Embankment
9.59 Friary Court is a small retail park located on Exeter Street on the drive out of the City Centre. Gdynia Way is part of the one-way road network into the City Centre from Marsh Mills, and passes under Laira Bridge. Just adjacent to this point is a site known as the ‘Western National’ site, accessed off Embankment
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Lane, where planning permission exists for a bulky goods retail scheme of about 5,000sq.m. net, granted to Salmon Developments who have since sold the site. The permission has been implemented (by undertaking preliminary ground works)and is therefore protected in perpetuity, and capable of implementation at any time.
9.60 We understand it is the Council’s aspiration to reconfigure the road network on the approach into the City from this direction. As a consequence for this a site may be freed up that could accommodate equivalent floor space to the Friary Retail Park, and the Laira Bridge commitment.
9.61 We would have no difficulty with this scenario in that our assessment includes an allowance for the Laira Bridge commitment, and Friary Park is accounted for in the turnover figures and projections for the City. However, it would obviously be important to secure the extinguishment of the existing retail consents by a suitable mechanism.
Sherford
9.62 Our analysis indicates that convenience and complementary comparison floor space is appropriate, subject to detailed analysis of the effects of Plymstock Broadway, Plympton Ridgeway and other relevant centres. Given the various definitions in Annex A of PPS6, and the fact that any new centre at Sherford will effectively be a (new) part of the retail hierarchy in the City (notwithstanding that it is in a different administrative district), we anticipate the new centre should be described as a ‘district centre’.
9.63 In terms of convenience goods, we note that our capacity exercise above has been confined to the City’s administrative district. This equates to catchment zones 1 to 12. Sherford is located in zone 29, and so the additional assumed population’s convenience goods shopping needs do need to be addressed. It is clearly logical to plan to do this within the new settlement itself. Assuming a
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development of between 4,500 and 5,500 dwellings by 2026, and a population density of 2.2 persons per household, this indicates capacity for one modestly sized convenience store.
9.64 In terms of comparison goods, given our findings above the potential comparison capacity across the catchment as a whole by 2026 is significant. In our view provision at Sherford should be related to the scale and function of the new community, and any proposals will also need to take account of impact on existing centres, in particular Plymstock Broadway and Plympton Ridgeway. However, from discussions we understand there is likely to be qualitative difference in the retail offer between the centres, and thus issues of impact may be limited. This should be assessed in more detail at the time of any application.
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10 STRATEGY OPTIONS
10.1 Having regard to our overall analysis, including the consideration of various opportunity sites, we now set out below a series of options for future retail planning policy in the City with, where appropriate our recommendations for certain options.
Convenience Goods
10.2 The City as a whole achieves a relatively high level of expenditure retention (90%). Therefore, policy should be directed at ensuring as reasonably even a spread of shopping opportunities and facilities for the City’s residents as possible.
10.3 The Council’s 2004 Local Shopping Needs Study addressed these issues in some detail, and we agree with many of the report’s findings. The assessment was however based on somewhat out-dated survey data (for example, before the opening of the replacement Lee Mill Store), and thus we have, as requested, revisited some specific issues.
The City Centre
10.4 We consider that food shopping facilities in the City Centre are generally good, both in terms of quality and choice of retailers. This is in part reflected in those stores’ performance.
District and Local Centres Devonport
10.5 We agree with the findings of the Council’s 2004 assessment that this area suffers from inadequate provision of convenience facilities for local needs. We understand that attempts have been made in the past to promote a new store at the Marlborough Street local centre, but that these have been unsuccessful.
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10.6 An application has now been submitted for a new store, as part of a new neighbourhood centre on the former MOD land off Chapel Street. In the circumstances, it would be reasonable of the Council to give support to the proposal even if this has implications in the longer term for the future of Marlborough Street as a viable local centre. That said, appropriate measures will need to be taken for the planned decline of that centre.
W eston Mill
10.7 The apparent shortfall in provision of convenience facilities in this area is a challenge in policy terms. St Budeaux does provide a healthy centre for the residents of the immediate area, but it is clearly not likely to function as a main food shopping destination, even with the addition of Lidl and if the Coop store were extended. Given the leakage of trade to more distant stores, a case can be made for additional floor space.
10.8 We recommend that before pursuing a new (district) centre allocation the City Council must thoroughly satisfy themselves that there are no sites that are suitable, available and viable within a reasonable period of time in St Budeaux. Assuming that to be the case, other sites can be considered subject to confirming that no significantly harmful impact is likely to result on St Budeaux or other nearby centres, as a whole. We consider this is achievable, subject to any new food store facility being qualitatively different to those in St Budeaux and other nearby centres. Primarily this relates to the size of the store, and the availability of car parking. It is in these terms that the appropriate designation will be a ‘district’ centre facility.
10.9 In the light of our quantitative findings, we recommend a store with a minimum net convenience sales area of 1,500sq.m. and a maximum of 2,000sq.m., subject to a detailed retail assessment at the time of any application.
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Derriford
10.10 We agree with the apparent widely held view that this area lacks a community focus or commercial centre. The existing local centre at Crownhill is too small, and too far south to be attractive to the large numbers who work in the hospital and offices nearby. Southway is too far to the North West, and somewhat hidden away within a residential area. Estover is too far to the East, and not easily reached because of the road layout and topography.
10.11 The natural geographical focus is, as we believe the Council has rightly identified, along the Tavistock Road, or at least just to one side or other of it. In any event, careful siting of any development will be necessary to ensure maximum accessibility.
10.12 We anticipate the spatial, qualitative need at Derriford would best be met by a district centre form of development based upon a food store, with complementary units capable and suitable for occupation by other service providers e.g. cafes, restaurants, take-away, professional services and community facilities such as day nurseries.
10.13 Ideally, a food store would be of such a type and format as to cause limited, if any, trade diversion on existing local convenience stores e.g. Southway, Crownhill etc., and sufficiently attractive to draw customers from the over-trading Sainsbury at Marsh Mills, and claw-back expenditure leaking to the Tesco store at Lee Mill. We consider this is achievable, and that such a store should probably be larger rather than smaller, offer a range of convenience and comparison goods, and provide a reasonable level of car parking (all qualities the Marsh Mills and Lee Mill stores enjoy).
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10.14 We have considered the prospect of trade diversion on nearby local centres (Crownhill and Southway). We anticipate it is unlikely there would be any harmful effects on Crownhill. Any application at Derriford should however be accompanied by a detailed assessment, including an analysis of any potential effects on the local centre at Southway.
Plymstock Quarry
10.15 Subject to addressing matters of impact, we see no reason why a new neighbourhood centre anchored by a modestly sized food store should not be constructed as part of the proposed residential development. Such a centre should also comprise, if possible, a number of units suitable for occupation by service retailers and other community uses.
10.16 The size of the food store should be limited, in order to ensure a reasonable prospect of further food store provision further to the East at Sherford, where the larger proportion of anticipated residential development will occur in this area.
Out of Centre stores
10.17 Our analysis indicates that some of the stores in the City over-trade to a significant extent. It is possible the operators of those stores may attempt to use this as justification for a store extension. Whilst extensions to stores in this way are not unacceptable in principle, we do advise the Council to rigorously ensure that any such proposals are fully compliant with PPS6.
Comparison Goods City Centre
10.18 Our assessment indicates that since the last shopper survey was undertaken (2000) the City’s Centre’s market share has remained stable. We consider the City
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Centre is generally healthy in PPS6 terms, and we consider that the Drake Circus development will help to recapture market share and enable Plymouth to compete with new development in other locations, principally Exeter.
10.19 We consider it highly likely a period of adjustment will be required after the opening of Drake Circus with relocations, vacancies, withdrawals and new retailers featuring in the City Centre. In time this should provide a positive outcome for the City, if the full potential benefits of Drake Circus are carefully tapped over the next five years or so. The following are necessary in order to maximise the benefits: • A proactive town centre management team; • Promotion and advertising; • Environmental and public realm enhancements; • Selective redevelopment and/or unit reconfiguration; • Accessibility strategy; • Protective planning policy; and • Market share enhancing development.
10.20 We consider that of all of these, perhaps the last two are the most important. It is imperative that if investor, developer and retailer confidence and interest is to be maintained in the City Centre that the Council sets out a clearly defined policy strategy to comparison developments beyond the City Centre. Our analysis indicates that retailer demand is only moderate, and coupled with this Plymouth’s current and potential market share imposes a natural limit to additional retail floor space that can be supported.
10.21 That said, we do consider that at the appropriate time there is the potential to grant consent for further development within the City Centre that would enhance market share, rebalancing the centre of retail gravity away from the East and Drake Circus. We anticipate that appropriate timing for the delivery of this
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development will be at some point between 2011 and 2016, given the findings of our quantitative assessment, and other analysis.
10.22 Other comparison development on the northern edge of the main shopping core may also be appropriate for similar reasons, although we consider such is less of a priority.
Millbay
10.23 Millbay clearly represents a good development opportunity, with it’s water-side setting, and relative proximity to the City Centre and the Hoe. Various planning documents prepared by the City Council have suggested that retail development may have a part to play in any scheme or master plan, perhaps with a view to capturing trade from the tourist market.
10.24 In principle we agree with these sentiments. There are numerous examples of successful water-side schemes in the Country (and abroad), based upon a mixed use development philosophy that incorporates retail uses. The main constraint in Plymouth’s case will be the apparently limited retailer demand, and the possible effects of any development on interests of acknowledged retail importance.
10.25 Overall, in light of our study findings, we recommend only very modest levels of retail floor space are included in any plans for the Millbay area at this time, or over the next decade.
Derriford
10.26 In our discussions with the City Council we have been made aware of possible aspirations by certain parties for significant comparison retail development in this location, as an enhancement of the ‘bi-polar’ economy theory.
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10.27 In principle, we consider it is possible that comparison development of some form in this location may be appropriate. However, in our view any such development must overcome a set of very significant hurdles and tests if it is to become a policy objective. In approximate order these are: • That there is a clear-cut quantitative need case for the level of any floor space proposed; • To a significant extent this will be dependant upon the City Council’s aspirations for residential growth being achieved; • That there is a robust assessment that any such development (or even planning policy promoting such development) would have no significantly harmful effects on the City Centre; • Or alternatively, that any development would be complementary to the City Centre’s function; • That there is significant retailer demand for both such a form of development and not just as an alternative to potential investment in the City Centre; and • That any such development is sustainable in terms of accessibility and travel patterns.
10.28 Our analysis indicates that there is no need case for any such development today. Indeed, our analysis indicates that there is unlikely to be any such need for a significant open A1 comparison retail scheme at Derriford until after 2016. Depending on the state of health of the City Centre, it is possible that some development could take place by 2016, perhaps as an enhancement of a convenience store anchored district centre (assuming that has been realised by then).
10.29 Should the Council decide to pursue an option of a planning policy framework supportive of comparison shopping floor space at Derriford we recommend that this is not explicit in terms of floor space potential at this stage, and also makes it clear that such development would only be contemplated after very careful
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analysis of the potential effects on the City Centre and other retail facilities of acknowledged importance. In short, we consider there should be no long term policy ‘guarantee’ of comparison retail development in Derriford at this stage, merely a commitment (should the Council decide) to keep the position under review.
Marsh Mills
10.30 In any City the size of Plymouth we would expect to find some out of centre retail facilities serving the needs of the bulkier end of the comparison goods sector. This is not to say that some or all of these goods could not be sold from a City Centre location, but merely recognises the dynamics of modern retailing, varying business models, customer preferences and that there may be better uses for more central sites than some forms of ‘bulky goods’ retailing.
10.31 Plymouth has a number of out of centre comparison goods stores, some stand alone and some in the form of retail parks. Of the latter, the three parks in the Marsh Mills area are clearly the dominant location for this format of retailing. The area has however developed in an unplanned and ad-hoc way, with the result that there are various physical, access and environmental shortcomings across the parks as a whole.
10.32 We consider that Marsh Mills will have a role to play in the retail hierarchy of the City into the future. It would be difficult for a planning policy framework to prevent this. We therefore recommend that the City Council plans positively for the area’s future, explicitly recognising it’s role and function in the hierarchy. Any such policy should set out the acceptable parameters for future development in the area (for example restricting development to certain ranges of goods, such as bulky goods), and most importantly confirm it will be expected that complementary investment will be directed at resolving identified planning problems (again to be defined in the policy).
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Plymstock Quarry
10.33 Given the findings of our assessment and planned development at Sherford, we do not consider that the proposed redevelopment of the quarry should be accompanied by significant comparison floor space.
Honicknowle
10.34 We generally consider that any proposals for comparison floor space in this location should be resisted, for example given the relative proximity with the Marsh Mills area.
District & Local Centres
10.35 Based on our analysis, we consider there is scope for limited additional comparison floor space within the district and local centres, complementary in scale and quality to the existing offer. The City Council should consider a policy reflecting this position, in particular a policy that may help to address any proposals for additional comparison space from the food store operators at Estover, Roborough and Transit Way. For example, such a policy should limit any additional retail comparison floor space, in light of our study findings, unless there is a clear qualitative need.
Out of centre locations (other than Marsh Mills)
10.36 As explained above we have made allowance for the Laira Bridge commitment and the Friary Park is included within our 2006 market share and turnover estimates. We therefore conclude there could be scope for a ‘swop’ of these two comparison development onto a new single site on the Eastern approach into the City Centre.
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10.37 Other than this, we can see no immediate justification and therefore need to plan for any other form of out of centre comparison retail development. The City Council will need to consider whether any policy framework should go further than this, and address the issue of planning applications from the owners or operators of stand-alone retail units for development that prolongs the life of those trading locations.
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11 IMPLEMENTATION
11.1 In order that the City Council can successfully achieve any policy goals based upon the advice and recommendations contained within this study, we set out below some practical advice on various implementation matters.
11.2 Monitoring is an essential tool in ensuring successful implementation. In addition to the Government’s general requirements upon local authorities for monitoring plan performance, chapter 4 of PPS6 sets out some specific guidance on the monitoring of retail performance. These include collecting data in relation to centres’ vitality and viability indicators (we have listed these at the beginning of chapter five of this report).
11.3 In the course of preparing this report we have utilised data on floor space within district and local centres, based on survey work by the City Council (last surveyed in 2005). We understand this is something that the Council has done every two years for some period of time. The data collected appears comprehensive and accurate, and we recommend the Council continues these surveys every two years. If possible they should be expanded to include out of centre and stand- alone retail facilities.
11.4 Other ‘v&v’ information that could be collected relatively easily by the Council includes pedestrian flow data, accessibility, on-street shopper surveys, crime statistics and qualitative environmental data. Alternatively these can be out- sourced, perhaps as part of an update of this report. This would also be likely to included details on retail rents, yields, retailer demand and the potential capacity for growth.
11.5 PPS6 chapter 4 also confirms the Council should monitoring the construction and occupation of new floor space as it is developed. So too does it advise local authorities to continue to monitor the retail network and hierarchy, and the
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quantitative and qualitative need for further development. These are matters best under-taken as part of an independent, specialist report.
11.6 We identified earlier in this report that the City Council will now be in the fortunate position to be able to undertake or commission further survey work and reports in the future, with a view to assessing accurately the effects of the opening of the Drake Circus development, for example on the City Centre’s market share. Although we urge the Council to commission such work, we recommend that this is not before the opening of the competing Princesshay development in Exeter, which will compete with Pymouth. Preferably therefore, the City Council would seek to update this report (including a new shopper survey) in 2008 or 2009.
11.7 We have already identified in our report some concerns about the potential short- term effects of the Drake Circus development upon the rest of the City Centre. Over time, we anticipate that the full benefits of the Drake Circus investment can result in significant benefits for the City as a whole. However, a number of factors will be important in maximising these benefits.
11.8 First, a pro-active City Centre management team is essential. We envisage this team will address a number of important matters such as marketing and promotion, special events, seasonal issues such as Christmas lighting, street cleaning, policing etc.. The City Council should be an active partner in such.
11.9 We understand this is effectively already the case with the establishment of the Plymouth City Centre Company in 2005 under the new provisions for the establishment of Business Improvement Districts (BIDs). We have noted the Company’s published projects for 2005/6, and these cover all of the matters above, and more.
11.10 Second, continued liaison and discussion with the investment, retail and development community, including land owners across the City. Again, we
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understand the City Council is already pro-active in such matters, and we anticipate will continue to be so, not least in terms of it’s role as a major land- owner within the City. It is important however that there is a close liaison and dialogue between the various teams within the City Council, for example asset management and planning. We believe this to be the case.
11.11 Third, direct investment by the City Council and it’s partners. This could include, for example, public realm enhancement to complement the already successful work on Armada Way. Contributions for such investment could legitimately be sought from developers as part of planning obligations to off-set potential adverse effects of development.
11.12 Finally, in exercising it’s planning function, the City Council should ensure that only those schemes that maximise the benefits of Drake Circus and the City generally are approved, and that unacceptable or inferior development is, if possible, rejected.
11.13 From the work we have under-taken to date, we believe that that City Council is addressing all of these matters.
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12 SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS
12.1 This study represents a comprehensive update of the Council’s previous shopping studies from 2000, 2001 and 2004, based upon up to date household shopper survey evidence, and other up-dated quantitative and qualitative indicators.
12.2 The study has been prepared to form part of the City Council’s evidence base for it’s emerging LDF policies. The study also fully reflects retail policy and advice at other levels including national, regional, strategic and other documents produced at the local level, as well as national retail shopping trends.
12.3 Retailing in the City as a whole has generally been found to be in a healthy state. In summary, the City Centre will shortly benefit from new investment (Drake Circus), and there are other development opportunities. The district and local centres are spread widely across the City, and given their specific roles and functions mostly perform in an acceptable way, meeting the needs of their immediate communities.
12.4 The City also has a successful out of centre retail destination in the Marsh Mills area (comprising three separate retail parks).
12.5 However, there are some concerns. Retailer demand is only relatively modest, and in the short term it is likely the Drake Circus development will lead to some vacancies in the existing City Centre retail stock. A period of consolidation of several years is likely to be necessary to address this, and other issues.
12.6 Competition will remain from other centres, particularly Exeter where the Princesshay development will open in early 2007. There is also pressure for further development within Plymouth beyond the City Centre. Care will need to be exercised both in terms of the timing of any development, and also it’s format and content.
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12.7 There are some shortcomings in the network of district and local centres. New facilities appear to be required in both the Devonport and Weston Mill areas, in order to address the day to day requirements of residents, particularly in respect of convenience (food) shopping facilities. To the North of the City, there is a clear spatial gap in provision in the Derriford area, again in terms of meeting the day to day needs of residents and the local (significant) working population. In time, it is possible a new district centre here could be expanded to take on a wider retail role, subject to examination of it’s effects on the City Centre.
12.8 To the East of Plymouth, new convenience facilities may be appropriate in the Plymstock Quarry area, to complement existing facilities at Plymstock Broadway, and those planned at Sherford.
12.9 Overall, there is quantitative capacity for further comparison development by 2011, and if possible the City Council should plan for this now, preferably in the City Centre. In practice, given that we are now at 2006, the delivery of any new floor space may be after 2011. Going forward our analysis indicates further development should be planned for, particularly in the City Centre, between 2011 and 2016. Beyond this, assuming the City Council’s population growth objectives are realised, the quantitative need for development will be significant.
12.10 There is a need for additional convenience retail floor space in the City, to deal with specific qualitative and spatial deficiencies, and help reduce the effects of over-trading in some stores, and leakage of trade around the City.
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