PLYMOUTH SHOPPING STUDY ON BEHALF OF PLYMOUTH CITY COUNCIL AUGUST 2006 CUSHMAN & W AKEFIELD 43/45 PORTMAN SQUARE LONDON W 1A 3BG TELEPHONE: 020 7935 5000 FACSIMILE: 020 7152 5392 W W W .CUSHMANW AKEFIELD.COM Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006 CONTENTS PAGE NUMBER Executive Summary 3 1. Study Brief & Scope of Report ..................................................................................10 2. Overview of Planning Policy Framework.................................................................13 3. National Shopping Patterns........................................................................................26 4. Overview of Previous Retail Assessments................................................................30 5. Retailing in Plymouth: an Audit.................................................................................41 6. Quantitative Capacity Assessment.............................................................................59 7. Retailer Demand...........................................................................................................76 8. SWOT Analysis of Plymouth .....................................................................................78 9. Opportunity Sites Analysis..........................................................................................82 10. Strategy Options...........................................................................................................98 11. Implementation ...........................................................................................................108 12. Summary & Conclusion .............................................................................................111 Appendices 1. Plans of study/survey area; 2. Household survey questionnaire; 3. Surveys per zone; 4. Survey results; 5. Quantitative assessment: convenience goods 6. Location plan of main food stores; 7. Quantitative assessment: comparison goods 8. District and Local Centres, floor space and turnover estimate; 9. Location plan of District and Local centres; 10. Retail warehouse parks, and tenants; 11. Location plan of warehouse parks; 12. Calculation of quantitative capacity; 13. Focus retailer demand summary; 14. Retailer demand questionnaires; 15. Plans of opportunity sites; Plymouth – retail study, reports, BEHR0002, Final 2 Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Scope of Study Cushman & Wakefield were instructed by Plymouth City Council in January 2006 to under-take a City-wide assessment of retailing within Plymouth, and to provide advice on the likely requirement for additional retail facilities in the period up to 2016 (with an overview to 2026). This reflects the anticipated life expectancy of the Council’s emerging Local Development framework which we understand has an end-date of 2021, and also has regard to a longer time horizon of 2026 consistent with the Regional Spatial Strategy. The Retail Hierarchy Plymouth is identified as a shopping location of sub-regional importance in the relevant planning policy framework, with Exeter being afforded the same status. Within Plymouth the City Centre shopping core is dominant in terms of comparison shopping. A network of district, local and out of centre facilities (retail parks and stand- alone stores) play a complementary role. In terms of convenience shopping the position is generally the reverse, with the large food stores in out of centre, district and local centre locations serving the majority of the main convenience goods shopping needs of the City. There are some apparent spatial and other deficiencies in the pattern of provision across the City, and this is one of the matters the Shopping Study considers. The City’s Growth and Sustainable Communities Agenda These two agendas provide an important context for the Shopping Study, and one that has not been addressed in previous studies for the Council. Plymouth – retail study, reports, BEHR0002, Final 3 Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006 In terms of the City’s agenda for growth, if fully realised this could result in the creation of 42,000 jobs in the period up to 2026, and the provision of about 24,500 new dwellings (the Council’s 2005 LDF Annual Progress Report suggests that at least 10,000 of these may be delivered by 2016). In addition, it is anticipated a new community of about 5,500 dwellings will be created to the East of the City at Sherford, and more limited (but still significant) new dwelling provision of about 1,000 dwellings to the West of the City at Saltash and Torpoint. This could in time lead to a City with a population of over 300,000 people. Therefore, anticipated population growth over and above recent trend has been included within the quantitative assessment. The second agenda strand for the City is to ensure that all of the communities within the City have access to the shopping facilities that they need in a sustainable way. There has been recognition that some areas of the City (both in terms of existing and anticipated population levels) have deficiencies in the provision of shopping facilities, and moreover facilities to serve the wider needs of those communities. The City Council is keen to explore the extent to which retail development can help assist in the delivery of the ‘sustainable communities’ agenda. Overview of Previous Retail Assessments In recent years three retail assessments have been prepared for the City Council by external consultants, in 2000, 2001 and 2004. The year 2000 assessment was based upon survey evidence, and amongst other recommendations advised the Council that there would be sufficient quantitative capacity for the Drake Circus redevelopment scheduled to open in 2006. This was reaffirmed in the year 2001 assessment. The year 2004 assessment focused upon shopping provision in district and local centres across the City, in particular convenience (food store) facilities. Using a defined methodology certain areas of the City were assessed as being deficient, including Devonport, Weston Mill and North Plymouth (Derriford). One of the Council’s objectives is to address these deficiencies. Plymouth – retail study, reports, BEHR0002, Final 4 Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006 At the end of 2005 DTZ Pieda produced an assessment of retail need for the South West Region. Whilst only a broad-brush analysis the study did confirm previous assessments that quantitative capacity would exist going forward, due to expenditure growth per capita and anticipated population growth. The Cushman & W akefield 2006 Assessment This latest shopping study has been based upon a completely new household shopper survey (of 2000 respondents) utilising the same study area as the previous survey work in 1999 and 2000. This follows the best practice advice in PPS6; moreover, it will enable the Council to accurately assess the effects of the opening of the Drake Circus development on shopping patterns in Plymouth by re-surveying in a few years time. The shopper survey results have been applied to bespoke population and expenditure data supplied by Experian, an industry recognised source for such. Having made the usual deductions for special forms of trading, the assessment indicates the following position for shopping at 2006 in the City (all in 2003 prices); Convenience goods: Total available expenditure £383.2m 1 Turnover of main food stores £251.63m (from residents of City only) Market share 65% Remainder for smaller shops, district & local centres £91.37m Leakage to stores outside Plymouth £40.2m (including £29.7m to Tesco at Lee Mill) Quantitative capacity at 2006 £75.98m2 Growth in expenditure at (cumulative): 2011 £17.22m 2016 £37.48m 2021 £79.95m 2026 £116.91m 1. Main food stores comprise: Asda Estover, Morrisons Outlands Road, Morrisons Plymstock, Sainsbury Armada Centre, Sainsbury Marsh Mills, Somerfield Plymstock, Tesco Metro New George Street, Tesco Honicknowle and Tesco Roborough; 2. Based on over-trading in main stores; Plymouth – retail study, reports, BEHR0002, Final 5 Plymouth Shopping Study August 2006 Comparison goods: Total available expenditure in study area £1,245m Turnover of Plymouth City Centre £637.05m Market share 51.1% Turnover of District & Local Centres £125.14m Market Share 10% Turnover of out of centre facilities £155.68m Market share 12.5% Combined Market Share 73.7% Quantitative capacity at 2006 £120.67m Expenditure capacity at (cumulative)3: 2011 £158.43m 2016 £428.77m 2021 £859.27m 2026 £1,442.54m 3. These calculations are cumulative, and take into account efficiency on existing floor space at 1.5% per annum, commitments, and assume a per capita comparison goods expenditure growth rate of 4.3% per annum; Analysis In terms of convenience goods, it is evident there are some stores that over-trade relatively significantly. Some of these are in out of centre locations. There is therefore the potential to ‘rebalance the network’ by the provision of additional floor space, particularly in areas of deficiency. Our analysis indicates that new convenience stores, capable of attracting main food shopping trips, could be located in the Weston Mill and Derriford areas. Better provision is also needed in the Devonport area to serve the needs of that community. In terms of comparison goods, we calculate that the City Centre is trading at about 20% above the bench mark level that could be expected for a City such as Plymouth. In terms of the indicators of vitality and viability in PPS6 the City Centre is therefore generally healthy, although does and will continue