New York City

Report 2018 REgional Impact: NEW YORK CITY Real estate insights from top investment professionals SPONSORED BY © 2018 Privcap LLC REgional Impact: NYC New Markets New York, New Markets New York City is the biggest collection of villages in the “The new joke is that kids are still living world, but investors are with their parents on the Upper East Side in increasingly turning to the order to save money for Brooklyn,” Warren outer boroughs of Brooklyn, says, highlighting increased migration to areas such as Williamsburg, Park Slope, Queens, the Bronx—and even Cobble Hill, Astoria, and Long Island City, northern New Jersey. and increased prices as a result. “A recent luxury multifamily project we New York City itself is one of the largest financed in Brooklyn is achieving rents investable commercial real estate markets competitive with Class A Manhattan rents,” in the world, yet there are many opportu- adds Warren. nities to be found in outer boroughs. It’s a sentiment shared by Brodie Ruland, “Places such as Williamsburg are no longer senior vice president and Northeast just about price and affordability, they are region head of investments for ASB Real about lifestyle,” says Marc Warren, principal Estate Investments, who says the shift of the capital advisory firm Ackman-Ziff. to New York’s outer boroughs is not just a trend for the multifamily sector, but With an office market alone valued at across all property types as corporations $107 billion and measuring 450msf in size, follow the customer. Manhattan will, of course, always capture a significant portion of the global institu- Between 2014 and 2016, ASB, in partner- tional equity targeting the metropolitan ship with L3 Capital, paid $104 million to area of New York. acquire 15 buildings and four land parcels mostly fronting Williamsburg’s North What has changed in the wake of the Sixth Street on behalf of its $7 billion core financial crisis, however, is the growth Allegiance Fund. In 2017, the firm invested of New York’s four other boroughs. With another $30 million to acquire three build- local economies that would each rank ings in the neighborhood from its $174.5 as the U.S.’ fourth-largest city if judged value-add Meridian Fund II. Since closing, individually, Brooklyn and Queens have ASB has invested more than $45 million become increasingly competitive as to redevelop the properties, including one private equity real estate managers and that was fully leased to Estée Lauder’s Le investors target the growth in these two Labo brand as its U.S. headquarters and submarkets, Warren says. NYC flagship store. CONTINUES ON NEXT PAGE © 2018 Privcap LLC Privcap Report / REgional Impact: NYC / 2018 / 2 REgional Impact: NYC New Markets “From a retail perspective, Williamsburg is very exciting, and it’s not about an afford- “Places such as ability issue. Retailers are being driven there by a need to serve their customers or Williamsburg are no because they see it as the coolest location,” longer just about price Peripheries says Ruland. and affordability, they The same is true in the office sector. in Focus are about lifestyle.” “Corporations need to attract and retain the best talent that’s out there, and depending —Marc Warren, Ackman-Ziff Insights from RSM's on the company, that may take them to Michael Mastruzzo neighborhoods such as Williamsburg and Long Island City,” says Ruland. “If you’ve got a great location today, that location should be great in 10 years’ time. All About Location You may not know who’s occupying it, par- That’s certainly been the case for Long ticularly when it comes to retail, but you’re As millennials leave Wharf Capital Partners, which leased always looking at location and the quality urban cores in search 77,000sf of office space to WeWork in 2015 of the asset,” he says. of space and value, at its 195 Montague Street property, the co-working firm’s first location in down- Staying Put is “suburbia” being town Brooklyn. While residents may have initially moved out to Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx redefined? “I was a developer at the very beginning of in search of affordability, price is not the my career, and it was all about the classic primary reason they are staying in the Across the U.S., urban areas are experienc- question, ‘Where is it located?’” says Long neighborhood, says RSM partner Michael ing rapid growth as people increasingly Wharf founding partner Michael Elizondo. Mastruzzo. Lifestyle is just as important. choose downtown over suburbia. But it’s not just the urban core that’s witnessing growth; so too are submarkets on the periphery of urban downtowns. Regional Highlights These urban-lite areas are heavily transit-oriented and mimic much of the urban core in terms of housing, retail, and $1.65T 64% commercial opportunities—but without NYC has the largest economy in Technology and information service the price tag. the U.S., with nominal GDP of $1.65 jobs have grown rapidly since 2008, trillion, $600 billion more than while financial and legal services In New York City, it’s not just headline second place L.A. have remained static or retrenched. areas such as Williamsburg, Brooklyn, or Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis1 Source: JLL Queens that are experiencing dramatic levels of construction and investment, but New Jersey towns such as Edgewater, 38.8% $22.5B Englewood and Fort Lee. More than a third of average NYC Value of property transactions in H1 household budgets go to housing, 2018, up 34 percent YOY. RSM senior manager Michael Mastruzzo compared to 32.9 percent nationally. Sources: Cushman & Wakefield, says that while pricing can sometimes be Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Bloomberg “commensurate” with downtown valu- ations, these areas are becoming more “desirable for young people and newer 15.4msf Footnote families looking to settle down because Manhattan leasing activity in H1 of their proximity to the city and the need 2018 increased 12 percent YOY and 1: BLS and BEA analysis covers the New York, for more space.” was the third-highest half-year total Newark, and Jersey City metropolitan area. since 2009. Source: CBRE CONTINUES ON NEXT PAGE © 2018 Privcap LLC Privcap Report / REgional Impact: NYC / 2018 / 3 REgional Impact: NYC New Markets Yet infrastructure, particularly transportation linking those communities to “Corporations need to attract and retain the best New York City, will always be a cause for talent that’s out there, and depending on the concern, says Mastruzzo. company, that may take them to neighborhoods In its latest report, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave New Jersey’s such as Williamsburg and Long Island City.” infrastructure, including bridges, roads, rail, —Brodie Ruland, ASB Real Estate Investments and transit, an average rating of D+. Delays in the planned $20 billion-plus Gateway Project tunnel to connect New Jersey and New York—and effectively the Despite the spread between median rent in office centers such as Fifth Avenue and Northeast Corridor—could hamper growth Manhattan and Brooklyn shrinking 53 per- Midtown East, and have attracted some of of the peripheries, adds Mastruzzo. “It’s a cent in the decade to 2018, “people are not the world’s leading brand names as a result. huge challenge for New Jersey and New moving out of the boroughs and back into York. When you have a growing popula- Manhattan as they may have traditionally For ASB, the Midtown South office market tion, you have to make transportation links done in the past when the city became is one such submarket, with the bulk of more efficient, or otherwise undertake cheaper,” says Mastruzzo. “People are its office portfolio in the neighborhood. In some newer projects to reduce some of the staying, because these areas in Brooklyn, H1 2018, average asking rents in Midtown volume that’s going to be coming in and Queens, and the Bronx have become highly South rose above $74psf, up 12 percent on out of the city.” sought after.” the prior year and the first time the rate has been above the overall Manhattan It’s not just employees who need robust The Sixth Borough office average. infrastructure investment. So too do For Warren and Mastruzzo, any conver- corporations, as many look outside the sation about New York’s boroughs also “Midtown South is still perceived to be the urban core to set up operations and be should include northern New Jersey, partic- most desirable office location in New York more closely connected to the consumer. ularly Jersey City. City for a lot of people, particularly companies who need significantly smaller space,” Mastruzzo notes that companies are “It’s effectively the sixth borough now,” says Ruland, adding that rental comps for becoming more strategic in terms of says Warren, while Mastruzzo points to the new Class A product in the area are around their location. While that has seen mega 33,000 residential units that were expected $150psf—with anecdotal reports of asking corporations such as GE move down- to break ground in Northern New Jersey rents hitting $175psf. town, others are looking for value in suburbs in 2018. peripheral markets. “What’s helping bolster rents and keep Infrastructure, though, is critical to the supply in check is the continued conversion “Key markets like New York have been continued growth of New York and its of properties into residential or hotels,” through their ups and downs, and these outer boroughs. Ruland says. “But it’s also where employees are cities that will adapt over time to and employers want to be.” what’s needed to make their industries “All the important development that is tak- successful,” says Mastruzzo.

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