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Investment Ideas Bajaj Auto Ltd. 24 November 2017

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Investment Ideas Bajaj Auto Ltd. 24 November 2017 INITIATING COVERAGE CMP: `3,293/- 24th November 2017 SECTOR: AUTOMOBILES BUY Set For Changing timeS…. Chintan Gupta Tel: +9122-66638972 [email protected] Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> Company Details Key Stock Data Comparison Chart CMP `3,293 Market Cap (` Mn) 952,915 Bajaj Auto Nifty 50 52W High/Low 3,344/2,555 3400 11000 Shares o/s (Mn) 289.4 3200 10500 10000 3000 9500 Nifty 50 Bloomberg BJAUT:IN 2800 9000 8500 NSE Code BAJAJ-AUTO 2600 Bajaj Auto 2400 8000 BSE Code 532977 7500 2200 7000 2000 6500 Shareholding Pattern (Sep-17) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 17 16 17 - - - - - - - - - - - Promoters 49.30 - - Jul Jun Jan Oct Apr Feb Dec Sep Aug Nov Nov Mar FIIs & DIIs 26.05 May Public & Others 24.65 Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 24 November 2017 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 2 Investment Theme Changing product mix in the domestic market – Superior growth in domestic motorcycles segment driven by new launches (CT 100 ES, Pulsar 160 NS, Platina ES, modified V and an Avenger upgrade). Motorcycle and 3W exports set to pick up – Exports recovery (Motorcycle + 3W) led by volume pick up in the African markets (where BAL is a key player) as well as entering new geographies. Three-wheeler sales set to pick up – Domestic 3W volumes set for an uptick with release of permits of ~10,000 units in Delhi, abolition of permits in Maharashtra, conversion of 2-stroke vehicles to 4-stroke vehicles in Karnataka and ban on diesel vehicles in Bangalore. Other Growth Drivers – Other growth drivers such as partnership between BAL and Triumph Motorcycles UK, electric 3W launch and approval of Qute in the domestic market by the regulatory authorities would be icing on the cake. These factors have not been considered in our earnings estimates. At CMP of `3,293, BAL is currently trading at a PE of 20.0x and 17.0 its FY18E and FY19E consolidated EPS. We value BAL at `3,969 per share by applying 21xP/E its consolidated FY19E EPS of `189 (including `297/share for KTM stake and `150 cash/share). We expect BAL to generate free cash flow greater than `50bn/annum in the next 2-3 years. With no major capex around, there is considerable scope for increasing payouts. We initiate coverage on BAL with a BUY rating for a target price of `3,969 (upside potential of 21% over the next 12-18 months). Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 24 November 2017 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 3 Company Overview Bajaj Auto Ltd. (BAL) is the world’s third largest manufacturer of motorcycles and the largest three-wheeler manufacturer. It was established on November 29, 1945 as Bachraj Trading Corporation Pvt. Ltd., initially an importer of two-wheeler and three-wheeler until it obtained license from the Govt. of India to manufacture two and three wheelers in 1959. BAL offers various brands in motorcycles across different engine capacities as shown below: Engine Capacity Range Brand BAL’s market share (FY17) 75cc-110cc CT 100 and Platina 13% 110cc-125cc Discover and V12 7% 125cc-150cc Avenger, Pulsar and V15 58% 150cc-200cc Pulsar and KTM 18% Above 200cc KTM, Avenger, Pulsar and Dominar 22% Source : Industry, Way2Wealth Institutional Equity BAL’s market share in the domestic motorcycles segment remained flat at 18% in FY17 compared to FY16. However, BAL lost market share in the exports motorcycles segment, from 66% in FY16 to 60% in FY17, owing to economic and political uncertainties in Africa where BAL is a major exporter. BAL is the world’s largest three wheeler manufacturer. Its market share in FY17 improved to 64.2% in FY17 as compared to 63.3% in the passenger three wheeler segment primarily due to market share gains in the domestic market. Its overall market share (domestic as well as exports) in the goods carrier segment was 12% in FY17, having entered the segment only in FY16. Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 24 November 2017 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 4 Company Overview BAL manufacturers its range of motorcycles and three wheelers at its three facilities situated at Waluj, Chakan and Pantnagar. The production capacity, actual manufacturing during FY17 and product range manufactured at each plant is shown below: Capacity (units Actual manufacturing Plant Type Product Range per annum) (FY17) Motorcycles 24,00,000 16,40,000 Boxer, CT 100, Platina, Discover, Pulsar, V12 and V15 Waluj Three wheelers 6,60,000 4,45,563 All three-wheelers and quadricycles Chakan Motorcycles 12,00,000 6,08,974 Pulsar, Avenger, Dominar and KTM Pantnagar Motorcycles 18,00,000 9,60,686 CT100, Platina, Discover, V12, V15 and Pulsar Total 60,60,000 36,55,223 Source : Annual Report BAL enjoys the best operating margins in the industry, at 20.3% as of FY17. BAL’s revenue mix and volume fix for FY17 is shown below: Volume Mix (FY17) Revenue Mix (FY17) Exports Spare 3W Quadricycl Parts 5% e (Exports) 12% Domestic 0% 3W 7% Domestic Domestic Exports 53% 2W 35% Exports 55% 2W 33% Source : Annual Report Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 24 November 2017 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 5 Industry Overview Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 24 November 2017 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 6 Industry Overview – 2W Industry The Indian two wheeler industry is the largest in the world. Indian manufacturers sold 19.92mn units in FY17 (domestic + exports). The domestic market comprised of 88% of the total sales, while exports stood at 12%. The Indian two wheeler industry can be classified as below: Type No. of units sold (including exports) (FY17) % of total Motorcycles 13,118,015 65% Scooters 5,896,051 30% Mopeds 910,519 5% Total 19,924,585 Source : Industry Reports BAL is present only in the motorcycle segment. 2010 - 2014 2015 It is worth mentioning that the scooter segment is growing faster than the motorcycle segment2011primarily due to urbanisation, increasing working females and gender neutral nature. While the scooter segment has grown at 17% CAGR over the past 5 years, motorcycles have grown at 2% CAGR over the same period. The chart below shows the growing preference of commuters to scooters over motorcycles: 2W Industry Trend (Domestic) 75% 73% 71% 80% 67% 65% 63% 60% 40% 28% 31% 32% 19% 21% 24% 20% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 0% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Motorcycles Scooter Mopeds Source : Industry Reports Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 24 November 2017 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 7 Industry Overview – 2W Industry Domestic Motorcycle Market Domestic motorcycle market stood at 11.09mn units in FY17. Its sales have grown at a meagre 2% CAGR over FY12-FY17. There are 11 players in the motorcycle market, with Hero Motocorp (51%), Bajaj Auto (18%), Honda Motorcycle and Scooters India (HMSI) (12%), TVS Motors (7%) and Eicher Motors (6%) dominating 94% of the market as of FY17. Market share of different players in Domestic Market (Category wise) 75% 7% Hero 40% 8% 7% Motocorp 0% 0% 13% Bajaj 7% 2010 - 13% 58% 2014 2015 Auto 18% 2011 75-110cc 22% 7% 110-125cc 57% 41% HMSI 12% 125-150cc 17% 21% 0% 150-200cc 5% TVS 8% Above 200cc 0% Motors 50% 0% 0% Eicher 0% 75-110cc 110cc-125cc 0% Motors 0% 125cc-150cc 150cc-200cc 77% 0% Above 200cc 4% Others 22% 10% Source : Industry, Way2Wealth Institutional Equity 1% Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 24 November 2017 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 8 Industry Overview – 2W Industry We expect the domestic motorcycle market to clock 7% CAGR over the next three years on the back of minimum support prices announced by the Govt. which is the highest in the past five years, implementation of farm loan waiver by States, implementation of the recommendations of Seventh Pay Commission and growth of infrastructure in smaller towns and non-urban areas. The other key drivers for growth are rising incomes and low interest rates. Domestic Motorcycle Market ('000's) 16,000 14,000 13,591 12,702 11,761 12,000 11,095 10,481 10,743 10,700 2010 - 10,085 2014 2015 10,000 2011 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Source : Industry, Way2Wealth Institutional Equity Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn.
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