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Online Payment Fraud ONLINE PAYMENT FRAUD Emerging Threats • Segment Analysis • Market Forecasts 2020-2024 Reprint for Experian www.juniperresearch.com ONLINE PAYMENT FRAUD Reprint for Experian 1 First Published February 2020 Juniper Research endeavours to provide accurate information. Whilst information, advice or comment is believed to be correct at the time of publication, Juniper Research cannot accept any responsibility © Juniper Research Limited All rights reserved. for its completeness or accuracy. Accordingly, Juniper Research, author or distributor shall not be liable to any person or entity with respect to any loss or damage caused or alleged to be caused Published by: directly or indirectly by what is contained in or left out of this publication. Juniper Research Limited, 9 Cedarwood, This report contains projections and other forward-looking statements that have been developed Chineham Park, Basingstoke, through assumptions based on currently available information. All such statements and assumptions RG24 8WD, UK are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual market parameters and UK: Tel +44 (0) 1256 830001/475656 performance to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements in the US: Tel +1 408 716 5483 www.juniperresearch.com published reports. Such factors include, without limitation, unanticipated technological, environmental, [email protected] political, social and economic factors beyond the control of Juniper Research. Forecasting is by definition a dynamic process that depends on the factors outlined above and can be Printed in United Kingdom vulnerable to major changes as a result. Juniper Research operates a policy of continuous Susan Morrow & Nick Maynard are the authors of this Work improvement and reserves the right to revise forecasts at any time without notice. All rights reserved: Juniper Research welcomes the use of its data for internal information and Report Authors communication purposes, subject to the purchased license terms. When used it must include the Susan Morrow & Nick Maynard following “Source: Juniper Research”. Prior written approval is required for large portions of Juniper Research documents. Juniper Research does not allow its name or logo to be used in the promotion of products or services. External reproduction of Juniper Research content in any form is forbidden unless express written permission has been given by Juniper Research. Copying and/or modifying the information in whole or in part are expressly prohibited. If you wish to quote Juniper Research please submit the planned quotation to [email protected] for approval. ONLINE PAYMENT FRAUD Reprint for Experian 2 Foreword Juniper Research Limited Regional Definitions Juniper Research is a European based provider of business North America: Canada, US. Canada, US intelligence. We specialise in providing high quality data and Latin America: Argentina, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, fully-researched analysis to manufacturers, financiers, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, French Guiana, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, French Guiana, developers and service/content providers across the Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, communications sector. 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Our team is drawn Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, from experienced senior managers with proven track records in Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK. Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland UK. each of their specialist fields. Central & East Europe: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia/Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine. Turkey, Ukraine. Far East & China: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, South Korea, Taiwan. China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, South Korea, Taiwan. Indian Subcontinent: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. Rest of Asia Pacific: Australia, Brunei, Fiji, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Cambodia, Australia, Brunei, Fiji, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. Africa & Middle East: Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Benin, Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Democratic African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eswatini, Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Israel, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Lebanon, Lesotho, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Lesotho, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Palestine, Palestine, Qatar, Reunion, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Qatar, Reunion, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Leone, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Uganda, United Arab Turkmenistan, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Emirates, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe Zambia, Zimbabwe ONLINE PAYMENT FRAUD Reprint for Experian 1 Contents 1.4.3 RTS Implications for Payment Service Providers ................... 14 1. Online Payment Fraud: Market Dynamics i. Fraud Detection............................................................................................... 14 1.1 Introduction ...................................................................................... 4 ii. Exemptions from SCA .................................................................................... 14 Table.1.8: CNP Fraud Rate Thresholds for SCA Exemption............................... 15 1.2 Development of Fraudulent Activity .............................................. 4 Figure 1.1: eCommerce & Fraud Attempt Growth (%), 2018-2019 ........................ 5 1.5 The API in the Machine ................................................................. 16 1.3 Key Trends in Digital Fraud ............................................................ 5 1.6 The Fintech in the Equation ......................................................... 16 1.3.1 Fitting the Human into Payment Fraud ....................................... 5 1.7 Consumer Behaviour, the Fraudsters’ Friend ............................ 17 i. API Authentication Security ............................................................................. 17 1.3.2 Continued Darknet Activity & Messaging Apps ......................... 5 i. From Darknet to Clearnet .................................................................................. 5 ii. Avoiding Logic Abuse ..................................................................................... 18 Table 1.2: Average Dark Market List Price ($), Various Tools & Products used by 1.8 3-D Secure 2.0 (3DS 2.0) & Biometric Authorisation of Fraudsters July 2018 ............................................................................................ 7 Transactions ........................................................................................ 19 Table 1.3: Average Dark Market List Price ($), Various Guides used by Fraudsters 1.8.1 Further 3DS Implications ........................................................... 20 July 2018 .............................................................................................................. 7 1.8.2 Next Steps & Regional Outlook ................................................
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