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Integrated Flood Forecasting, Warning and Response System 3 Integrated Flood Forecasting, Warning and Response System 3 47 3.1 Defining an Integrated System Establishing a viable flood forecasting and composed of many links. Each link must be warning system for communities at risk present and functional if benefits are to be requires the combination of data, forecast achieved. Figure 12 shows a schematic tools, and trained forecasters. A flood- representation of the system as links in a forecast system must provide sufficient lead chain. time for communities to respond. Increasing lead time increases the potential The essential links or components of the to lower the level of damages and loss of life. integrated flood forecasting, warning and Forecasts must be sufficiently accurate to response system consist of a Data Source, promote confidence so that communities will Communications, Forecasts, Decision respond when warned. If forecasts are Support, Notification (often referred to as inaccurate, then credibility of the dissemination), Coordination, and Actions programme will be questioned and no (or responses). A flood forecast and warning response actions will occur. programme should be designed to mitigate floods, and, as such, it is an asset to overall Flood-warning systems must be reliable and water management. To achieve this, it is designed to operate during the most severe important that all of the components of the floods. The greatest benefits for an effective system be functional. If any component is flood-warning programme occur when dysfunctional, then this weak link could flooding is severe, widespread, and/or break the chain, resulting in an ineffective sudden, and when communities and warning and response process. For example, organizations are prepared to mitigate if critical rainfall or streamflow data are impacts. unavailable or if the data are not relayed to a forecast centre for use in forecasting, then The implementation of an end-to-end flood the critical lead time required to make forecast, warning and response system decisions, coordinate activities, warn consists of many components. These citizens, and take actions is not possible. If components must be linked for successful a perfect flood forecast is generated but does operation. The interaction of components of not reach the population at risk, then the the integrated flood forecast system or warning system is useless. Equally, should programme could be represented as a chain the population at risk receive the warning Figure 12 Integrated flood forecasting, warning and response system within IWRM Flood and Water Resources Management: a Critical Chain of Events and Actions GIS Tools Mathematical Models Data Communication Forecast Decision Notification Support Coordination Actions Sense Water Get Data Future Water Mgmt. Appropriate Tasks from Relocation Availability where Water & Individuals Response Sand bagging Needed Availability Flood Control & Groups Plans Other responses Decisions Organisations Civil society 48 Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses but not know what actions should be taken, help put a recent flood into context. Often, then the system again would not have such records are of value in defining the accomplished its purpose. flood history in a river basin, particularly when combined with stream gauge records In the overall design of the integrated that exist for contemporary periods. Other system, there are many factors that should more recent historical information can be be considered. The remainder of this drawn from newspapers, journals and oral chapter reviews some of these factors. histories. Usually there is a perception level associated with flooding at a given location; Basin characteristics large events are noted, smaller events are not. The physical characteristics of the basin, such as surface area, topography, geology, The flood history will identify the portions and land surface cover, will help to of a basin subject to flooding, whether determine the nature of potential flooding flooding is urban or rural or both, seasonal and the basin's susceptibility to related characteristics of flooding, and the feasible hazards such as landslides and mudflows. warning time. The type of flooding and associated hazards may be significantly The hydrological response of the basin can different on tributaries compared to the be impacted upon by changes in land use main stem of the river. Knowledge of the associated with urbanization, forestry, factors contributing to or causing the agriculture, drainage, or channel flooding such as meteorological and modifications. A record of such changes antecedent conditions should be established over time is useful in establishing the for each flood event. dynamic relationship between rainfall and runoff. The following also contribute to an Lake flooding as well as flooding from understanding of flood hazards: records of ocean surge and tsunamis may pose climate norms and trends for parameters, problems quite different from river flooding. such as precipitation and evapotranspiration; These guidelines are oriented to river and information on the usual effects of flooding, but many principles contained ENSO events and extreme events, from herein are also applicable to varying degrees synoptic to mesoscale. to other water-related disasters. Population centres often are adjacent to Environmental factors rivers, and flood plains can be rich agricultural resources. Identification of Floods can induce major changes in river populations and economic activities at risk morphology, mobilize nutrients and should be carried out early in the process, as contaminants in the soil, release other this will shape the eventual forecast output. contaminants from storage depots, and discharge effluents to the river. Flood history Deforestation, fires and erosion of materials combined with saturated soils can lead to Flood history, also known as paleohydrology, landslides, mudflows and other threats to can be inferred from study of sediment human settlements. Sometimes floods are deposits, tree ring analysis, and examination accompanied by strong winds that also can of a number of other biological indicators. pose threats to human life and property. An Such analyses will not lead to a analysis of potential environmental risks will determination of flood volumes, but may help determine flood forecasting and 49 warning needs. This can help to shape System identification future approaches to flood plain management and regulation, and can assist Depending on the nature of the basin and in the design and establishment of response the type of event causing the flooding, actions. potential warning times could vary from hours to several days to weeks. Economic factors Communities subject to flash flooding require warnings of meteorological A flood forecasting, warning and response conditions that, when combined with system comprises an important element of antecedent basin conditions, could lead to integrated water resources management. flooding. This represents a special case of The benefits of river forecasts for power flood forecasting and warning. The generation, navigation or irrigated challenge in such cases is rapid depiction of agriculture make implementation of such a critical flood thresholds and their system more cost effective and sustainable. subsequent communication and emergency Even then, maintaining a system in a state of response. An analysis of historical rainfall readiness between floods may be difficult. records, including storm transposition and the resulting streamflow would help to An examination of past damages and the identify areas of concern. potential for future damages will help determine priority areas for flood forecasting, warning and response. Rigorous analysis would call for statistical analysis of flood peaks and the calculation of the present value of costs and benefits of flood forecasting and warning. In most cases, however, the benefits of flood forecasting, warning and response are virtually self-evident. The real questions are the affordability of various options and the desire of society to invoke a more pro-active stance to reducing flood losses. Communities at risk While flood losses in rural districts can be devastating to those areas, the most significant losses are usually in urban communities because of the concentration of Journal Review Photo: J. Laurie, Las Vegas people and related socio-economic Las Vegas, July 1999, flash flood meets desert investments. The basin characteristics and flood history of individual communities, When warning times are longer than a few combined with damage estimates from hours, full-fledged forecast systems should previous floods, will give some indication of be contemplated. The degree of desired the type of flood forecasting and warning automation and sophistication must be system that may be most suitable for considered in light of current needs and effective warnings. Once the system is capabilities. Automation needs can be defined, consideration should be given as to considered in sub-systems: data acquisition how it could benefit rural areas as well. and transmission; data processing; forecast 50 Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses preparation; and forecast distribution. damages to be more accurately estimated Different levels of automation may be for various levels of flooding. required as the overall system develops and expands, and as financial resources become A rigorous cost-benefit analysis would available. Systems may vary from those require determining a flood frequency using largely
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