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Seasonal Climate Summary Southern Hemisphere (Summer 2004/05): a Neutral ENSO Situation with a Cooling Pacific

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Seasonal Climate Summary Southern Hemisphere (Summer 2004/05): a Neutral ENSO Situation with a Cooling Pacific Aust. Met. Mag. 54 (2005) 347-357 Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (summer 2004/05): a neutral ENSO situation with a cooling Pacific. Hot and dry over the western half of Australia Grant S. Beard National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (Manuscript received September 2005) Southern hemisphere circulation patterns and associated anomalies for the austral summer 2004/05 are reviewed, with emphasis given to the Pacific Basin climate indicators and Australian rainfall and temperature patterns. Neutral ENSO conditions persisted during the summer of 2004/05. Near-equatorial Pacific surface temperatures were generally warmer than average, but most anomalies decreased by around 0.4°C during the course of the season. February was a particularly anomalous month; it was characterised by a large fall in the Southern Oscillation Index, strongly enhanced convection around the date-line, strong westerly wind anom - alies in the western to central tropical Pacific and numerous tropical cyclones over the central Pacific. Australian summer rainfall totals were well below average in a band extending from northwest WA to the far western border areas of NSW and Queensland. It was also much hotter than average over the western half of the country, particularly in the Pilbara of WA where mean maximum and minimum tempera - tures were the highest on record. Introduction The borderline warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation near the date-line and strong westerly wind anomalies (ENSO) conditions of spring 2004 (Bettio and over the western to central tropical Pacific. Numerous Watkins 2005) persisted through summer, but with tropical cyclones also formed over the central Pacific some weakening as positive SST anomalies reduced. in February, some of them reaching category 5, the There was a brief ENSO-like coupling of the ocean most intense. Tropical cyclone Olaf made a direct hit and atmosphere in February, accompanied by a sharp on American Samoa’s Manu’a Islands, which were drop in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the declared a major disaster area by the USA. development of a quasi-stationary mass of convection Averaged over Australia, it was the driest summer since 1989/90, ranking 16th driest out of the past 105 summers. Rainfall was particularly suppressed across Corresponding author address: Grant. S. Beard, National Climate subtropical parts of the country with several patches Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Vic. 3001, Australia. registering record low falls. In contrast, conditions 347 348 Australian Meteorological Magazine 54:4 December 2005 were wetter than average in the southeast of the main - Fig. 1 Southern Oscillation Index, from January land, although a substantial fraction of the rainfall 2001 to February 2005. Means and standard occurred during a 48-hour period in early February. deviations used in the computation of the SOI are based on the period 1933-1992. In area-average terms, Australian maximum tem - peratures were the third highest on record since 1950. It was a particularly hot summer over much of WA and western parts of the NT, with record high mean maxima and minima in the Pilbara. This summary reviews the southern hemisphere and equatorial climate patterns for summer 2004/05, with particular attention given to the Australasian and Pacific Regions. The main sources of information for this report are the Climate Monitoring Bulletin - Australia (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia), the Darwin Tropical Diagnostic Statement (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) and the Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (Climate Prediction Center, Washington). Further details regarding sources of data are given in the Appendix. Pacific Basin climate indices able than Darwin’s with anomalies of –1.6 hPa, +0.4 hPa and –3.8 hPa respectively for the three summer The Troup Southern Oscillation Index* months, the February value establishing a new record The sequence of weakly negative Southern for the month. In fact, Tahiti’s February mean MSLP Oscillation Index (SOI) values that occurred during of 1007.3 hPa was the equal lowest of any month: spring (Bettio and Watkins 2005) continued only as December 1883 and January 1998 also had the same far as the first month of summer with a December mean. The anomalously low February pressure over reading of –8.0. Thereafter the SOI (Fig. 1) was more French Polynesia was consistent with a period of sus - volatile rising to +1.8 for January before plunging to tained convection in the vicinity of the date-line. a value of –29.1 for February, the lowest value for any The November/December, December/January and month since February 1983 (–33.3). The seasonal January/February values of the Climate Diagnostics mean of –11.8 indicated that, on the whole, the Center (CDC) Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) Walker Circulation was weaker than average across (Wolter and Timlin 1993, 1998) were +0.679, +0.298 the western Pacific during summer, a situation that and +0.742 respectively. These values were marginal - was consistent with other indicators that showed bor - ly lower than those recorded during spring and indi - derline warm ENSO conditions. cate a persistence of borderline warm ENSO condi - Darwin’s mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) mostly tions over the Pacific basin. The MEI is derived from fluctuated within 2-3 hPa of average during a number of atmospheric and oceanic indicators, and December and January, with some of the lowest val - typically shows positive values in excess of +0.8 dur - ues of the season occurring at the end of December ing warm ENSO (El Niño) events. and start of January, in association with the onset of the monsoon over northern Australia. The monthly Outgoing long wave radiation anomalies were 0.0 and +0.1 hPa respectively for Figure 2, adapted from the Climate Prediction Center these two months. During February however, the (CPC), Washington (CPC 2005), shows the standard - MSLP anomalies at Darwin became consistently pos - ised monthly anomaly of outgoing long wave radia - itive as the Australian monsoon weakened and con - tion (OLR) from January 2001 to February 2005, vection became anchored around, and to the east of, together with a three-month moving average. These the date-line. Darwin’s February MSLP anomaly was data, compiled by the CPC, are a measure of the a substantial +2.4 hPa. Tahiti’s MSLP was more vari - amount of long wave radiation emitted from an equa - torial region centred about the date-line (5ºS to 5ºN and 160ºE to 160ºW). Tropical deep convection in *The Troup Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) used in this article is this region is particularly sensitive to changes in the ten times the standardised monthly anomaly of the difference in phase of the Southern Oscillation. During warm (El mean sea-level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. The calculation is based on a sixty-year climatology (1933-1992). Niño) ENSO events, convection is generally more Beard: Southern hemisphere climate summary summer 2004/05 349 Fig. 2 Standardised anomaly of monthly outgoing Indian Ocean and northern Australian tropics to the long wave radiation averaged over the area western, or sometimes central, Pacific (Wheeler and 5ºS to 5ºN and 160ºE to 160ºW, from January Weickman 2001). It usually has a clear signal in the 2001 to February 2005. Negative (positive) OLR field. The first pulse occurred from late anomalies indicate enhanced (reduced) con - vection and rainfall in the area. Anomalies are December to late January as a wave of enhanced con - based on the 1979-1995 base period. After vection propagated across the Maritime Continent CPC (2005). and western Pacific Ocean. It was associated with the onset of the monsoon over northern Australia at the end of December and early January. Pulse number two developed during the last two days of January in the western Pacific, and propagated slowly to the east for a fortnight before losing the characteristics of an eastward moving wave. At about this time, convec - tion became quasi-stationary around the date-line indicating ENSO-like coupling between the ocean and atmosphere, albeit for a brief period. Oceanic patterns Sea-surface temperatures Figure 3 shows summer 2004/05 sea-surface temper - ature (SST) anomalies in degrees Celsius (°C), obtained from the NOAA optimum interpolation analyses (Reynolds et al. 2002). The contour interval is 0.5°C. Positive anomalies are shown in pink and prevalent resulting in a reduction in OLR. This reduc - red shades, while negative anomalies are shown in tion is due to the lower effective black-body tempera - blue shades. ture and is associated with increased high cloud and Seasonally averaged positive anomalies were evi - deep convection. The reverse applies in cold (La dent across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with the excep - Niña) events, with less convection expected in the tion of the far east, as well as over the Coral Sea, vicinity of the date-line. northern Australian waters and much of the tropical The December and January values of this index Indian Ocean. In the Pacific, near-equatorial anom - (+0.5 and +0.2 respectively) were indicative of close alies exceeded +1.0°C between about 160°E and to, or slightly reduced, tropical convective activity 160°W and peaked at +1.5 to +2.0°C just to the west around the international date-line. However, in of the date-line. The area of anomalies over +1.0°C February the index had a value of –2.3, the lowest around the equatorial date-line changed only slightly value since the 1997/98 El Niño, as a result of a sus - from December to January, but there was a marked tained period of increased convection in this region. decline in its spatial coverage in February; a month The low OLR and SOI values in February, together characterised by strongly enhanced convection (and with the persistence of above average sea-surface hence reduced solar insolation) in this region.
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