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rkey: Thwarted Ambition

Simon V. Mayall A popular Government, without popular information or the means of acquiring it, is but a Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy; or perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance; And a people who mean to be their own Go vernors, must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives.

JAMES MADISON to W. T. BARRY August 4, 1822 : Thwarted Ambition

Simon V. Mayall

McNair Paper 56 January 1997

INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY Washington, DC NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY [] President: Lieutenant General Ervin I. Rokke, USAF [] Vice President: Ambassador William G. Walker INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES [] Director & Publisher: Dr. Hans A. Binnendijk

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From time to time, INSS publishes McNair Papers to provoke thought and inform discussion on issues of U.S. national security in the post~old War era. These monographs present current topics related to national security strategy and policy, defense resource man- agement, international affairs, civil-military relations, military technology, and joint, combined, and coalition operations.

()pinions, conclusions, and recommendations, expressed or implied, are those of the aud~ors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or any other U.S. Gow:,rnment agency. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited.

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I.or sale by the t;.% (iovernment Printing (.)ffice Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC. 20402-9328 ISSN 1071-7552 Contents

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1

. HISTORICAL INFLUENCES ON MODERN TURKEY ...... 7 The Origins and Legacy of Ottoman Greatness ...... 7 The Ottomans and the West ...... 8 The Ottomans and the European Balance of Power .. 10 The Development of Nationalism ...... 12 World War One and Defeat ...... 14 The War of Independence and the National Pact .... 15 Conclusion ...... 17

. THE STATE FOUNDATIONS OF TURKISH SECURITY POLICY ...... 21 Geopolitical Foundations ...... 21 Ethnic Foundations ...... 22 Ideological Foundations ...... 22 State, Society and the Formulation of Foreign Policy ...... 25 The Civil Service ...... 26 The Army ...... 27 The Role of the Army in Security Policy ...... 29 Foreign Policy and Public Opinion ...... 31 The 1980 Intervention and the 1982 Constitution ... 32 A New Era ...... 33

. THE EXERCISE OF TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY: Ataturk to Ozal ...... 37 Foreign Policy Imperatives ...... 38 International Acceptance ...... 39 Turkey and the Second World War ...... 41 Turkey Moves West ...... 42 Turkey and the Cold War ...... 44 Turkey Reassesses its Role ...... 46 Security Policy Stability ...... 50

iii . THE MOLD BREAKS ...... 53 The Challenge ...... 54 Turgut Ozal ...... 55 The Gulf War ...... 57 The World Unfolds ...... 58 Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh ...... 60 The War in Bosnia ...... 61 The Turkic Republics of ...... 62 Regional Initiatives ...... 63 Conclusion ...... 64

. THWARTED AMBITION? ...... 69 Internal Politics ...... 70 The Economy ...... 71 Refah Alters the Equation ...... 75 The Armed Forces ...... 77 The Defense Budget ...... 80 Refah and the Military ...... 81 The Kurdish Issue ...... 83

. BRIDGE OR BARRIER? ...... 91 Turkey's Relations with the West ...... 92 Turkey's Relations with the East ...... 96 Conclusion ...... 102

8. FACING THE FUTURE ...... 105

ABOUT THE AUTHOR ...... 11 7

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Z~ Turkey: Thwarted Ambition

le Introduction

At the end of the Cold War every country was forced to re- examine the fundamental assumptions that had formed their security policies for the last 45 years. Among the "victors" of the Cold War, few countries were faced with a more disparate set of new circumstances than Turkey. Unlike the United States and Western Europe, "victory" for Turkey had a very ambivalent quality. Almost overnight Turkey moved from being the buttressing flank of one strategic region, to the epicenter of a new one. In a bipolar world Turkey had had the luxury of an uncomplicated security policy in which, broadly speaking, it aligned with the West, opposed the Soviet Union, and ignored the rest. In the new security environment, Turkey's geographical position and its military strength now made it a European, Balkan, Middle Eastern, Near Eastern, Caucasian, Mediterranean, Aegean, and power. Sharing borders with , Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, , , and , Turkey's control of the Bosphorus Straits and the Dardenelles also made it a Black Sea neighbor of Russia, the Ukraine, Romania and Moldova. Turkey's ethnic roots lay in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the , influencing its interests, concerns, and sympathies. Its Muslim identity demanded a Turkey: 77Jwarted Ambition community of interest in the , through Pakistan, and across to South East Asia. This span of responsibility was a source of both excitement and concern, but these emotions were not often shared by its allies. Turkey was an active participant in the Gulf War, and in its wake President Turgut Ozal stated, "It is my conviction that Turkey should leave its former passive and hesitant policies and engage in an active foreign policy. ''1 Between 1991 and 1993, Turkey seemed to embrace Ozal's vision, embarking on a broad range of diplomatic activity in Central Asia, the Trans- Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Black Sea area. These ambitions were supported by a wide range of Turkish public opinion, and by many observers in the West, 2 particularly in the United States.~ None of the immediate and demanding post-Cold War issues of Bosnia, the Middle East Peace Process, Iraqi sanctions, Operation Provide Comfort, Trans-Caucasus separatism, Russian activities in the "Near Abroad," CFE flank issues, NATO enlargement, , Central Asia, and energy pipelines could be discussed without reference to Turkey. Enthusiasm and concern colored assessments of how Turkey would address these new challenges and opportunities. Many of these assessments were flawed by poor understanding of the dynamics of the Turkish state, society, and economy, or by lack of knowledge about the consistent elements in Turkish foreign policy. In his history of the First World War, Churchill wrote, "1 can recall no great sphere of policy about which the British Government was less completely informed than the Turkish. "4 He wrote this in 1929, some 6 years after the had formally recognized the new Republic of Turkey. Written with the benefit of hindsight, his comments encompassed not only the causes and consequences of the disastrous Gallipoli campaign, but the whole conduct of British policy toward the late