Market Watch Tuesday, March 15, 2016 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr Agenda

14 Monday 15 Tuesday 16 Wednesday 17 Thursday 18 Friday  Eurozone, January industrial  BoJ, announcement  U.S., February CPI  BoE, announcement  U.S., March Michigan production  Treasury auctions  U.S., February housing  U.S., March Philadelphia Fed sentiment index  TurkStat, August labor starts and building permits business outlook survey statistics  U.S., February industrial  U.S., jobless claims  MoF, February budget production and CUR realizations  U.S., Fed FOMC  U.S., February retail sales announcement  U.S., February PPI  U.S., March Empire manufacturing survey

Outlook: Stock markets across the globe ticked up yesterday, while oil prices de- clined as Iran dashed hopes of a coordinated production freeze, and the Hacim (mn TL) BIST 100 US$ gained value ahead of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting. Atten- tion is essentially switched to policy decisions from the BoJ today, the US 8.000 80.111 81.000 Federal Reserve to be announced on Wednesday and the BoE by Thurs- 78.738 79.025 79.380 day. In the meantime, the BIST100 rose by 0.9% on Monday helped by the 6.000 79.000 77.683 TRY gaining strength against the US$; the US $/TRY moved down to 2.88. The benchmark index closed at 80,111, where the rise was led mainly by 4.000 77.000

the 1.0% average appreciation of industrial stocks. Total trading volume 5.694

4.512 4.422

was at TRY 4.3bn. TurkStat is expected to announce August labor statistics 2.000 4.117 75.000 3.946 today, and the MoF is also expected to release February budget realiza- tions. While the BoJ decision will be the central focus of the markets, we 0 73.000 will also be following US February retail sales, February PPI and March 8 Mart 9 Mart 10 Mart 11 Mart 14 Mart Empire manufacturing survey data. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Indices (TRY) Previous Last Chg. YTD Putin has ordered his military to start withdrawing the main part of its forces BIST 100 79.380 80.111 0,92% 11,69% from Syria; this, we reckon, could help ease geopolitical tension. We expect BIST 30 97.844 98.703 0,88% 12,90% a flat to slightly positive opening at the BIST today. RESISTANCE LEV- BIST-Financial 104.124 104.763 0,61% 11,12% ELS: 80,600 – 81,200/SUPPORT LEVELS: 79,700 – 78,900. BIST-Industrial 78.939 79.745 1,02% 9,88% BIST-Services 58.069 58.866 1,37% 12,54% Money Market: The Lira was negative yesterday, weakening 0.17% against the USD to Advances Declines Most Active close at 2.8785. Additionally, the currency depreciated by 0.15% against Stocks (%) Stocks (%) Stocks Vol (TR) the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. The local fixed income markets BJKAS 16,19 -4,22 GARAN 845.628.935 were positive. The two-year benchmark bond was traded within a tight AVOD 10,43 YYAPI -3,75 THYAO 612.811.931 range of 10.42%-10.44%, ending at the day at a high of 10.44%, 5 Bps HATEK 7,55 CLEBI -3,58 BJKAS 335.594.071 below its previous close. AYEN 7,54 SANFM -3,45 HALKB 236.219.577 DESPC 6,86 PENGD -3,11 ISCTR 205.655.526 Company News: Money Market Previous Last Pr. Mn YE15 Mannesman Boru (BRSAN TI, N/R) The US Department of Commerce has revised the countervailing duty imposed on Borusan O/N Repo (%) 10,37 10,30 10,35 10,28 Mannesmann Boru’s oil and natural gas well pipes to 2.38% from the previ- Euro Bond (30 year, $) 167,19 167,44 164,60 163,66 ous 15.89%. The duty had been introduced in July 2014. Borusan Mannes- Bond (Benchmark, %) 10,49 10,44 11,08 11,09 man Boru had lodged an appeal for this decision as a result of which the Currency Previous Last Chg. YTD International Commercial Court decided that the US Department of Com- US$ 2,8695 2,8785 0,31% -1,27% merce should recalculate the rate being applied. It duly revised the counter- Euro 3,1975 3,1945 -0,09% 0,92% vailing duty rate imposed on Borusan Mannesmann Boru’s products down Euro/Dolar 1,1102 1,1107 0,05% 1,66% to 2.38%. The decision is positive in principle, while Borusan Mannesmann Boru adds that it will not have a negative impact on the company’s current Commodity Previous Last Chg. YTD market share in the oil and natural gas well pipes market. The development Oil (Brent spot, $) 39,7 39,2 -1,34% 5,07% should also be remotely positive for (EREGL.TI; MP) as well, as Oil (NYMEX future, $) 37,2 36,9 -0,73% -0,65% pipe & profile producers comprise ca. 45% of the group’s flat steel sales Gold (Ounce, $) 1.236,5 1.228,3 -0,67% 14,48% (37% of its total sales) volume. Silver (XAG, $) 15,3 15,3 -0,34% 9,37%

Kardemir (KRDMD.TI; MP) and Pegasus (PGSUS.TI; OP) have an- Şeker Funds Previous Last* Chg. YTD nounced that no dividend would be paid to shareholders from 2015 in- Şeker Portfoy Equity Fund 0,328640 0,330943 0,70% 10,48% come. The decisions have been in line with our expectations and we do not Şeker Portfoy Debt Instruments 0,023108 0,023135 0,12% 2,64% expect any impact of the respective companies’ share performance. Şeker Portfoy Money Market 1,041798 1,042070 0,03% 1,82% Şeker Portfoy Mix Fund 0,018508 0,018550 0,23% 4,33% REIC (EKGYO.TI; OP) has announced its figures for Febru- Şeker Portfoy Gold Fund 0,018734 0,018591 -0,76% 14,77% ary. Accordingly, unit pre-sales marked a 43.7% YoY drop (Jan.16: -55.0% Şeker Portfoy Short T. Debt 0,012427 0,012430 0,02% 1,62% YoY) on 407 units, while the pre-sales amount indicated a 44.3% >>> * Prices as of 15-Mar-16

Market Watch Tuesday, March 15, 2016 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr

>>> YoY decline (Jan.16: -65.2% YoY) to TRY 241.1mn. YTD unit pre- World Indices sales marked a 49.3% YoY drop on 734 units, while the YTD pre-sales America Previous Last Chg. YTD amount indicated a 55.0% YoY retreat to TRY 398.3mn. While we consider Dow Jones (US) 17.213 17.229 0,09% -1,12% the announced figures ‘slightly negative’, we opt to maintain our positive Nasdaq (US) 4.748 4.750 0,04% -5,14% view on the stock, believing the diminished results to be cyclical and fore- S&P 500 (US) 2.022 2.020 -0,13% -1,19% seeing a pick-up in the remainder of the year. We also note the manage- Bovespa (Brasil) 49.639 48.867 -1,55% 12,73% ment’s increased 12% guidance on unit sales for 2016. We also retain our Merval (Argentina) 13.052 12.546 -3,87% 7,46% 2016 revenue expectation of TRY 2.2bn. Mexico Bolsa (Mexico) 44.736 44.692 -0,10% 3,99% Europe Previous Last Chg. YTD Dax (Germany) 9.831 9.990 1,62% -7,01% FTSE 100 (UK) 6.140 6.175 0,57% -1,09% CAC 40 (France) 4.493 4.507 0,31% -2,81% WSE WIG (Poland) 47.182 47.300 0,25% 1,79%

Prague (Czech Republic) 908 914 0,70% -4,43% Budapest (Hungary) 25.609 25.609 0,00% 7,06% RTSI (Rusya) 846 831 -1,78% 9,71% Asia Previous Last Chg. YTD Nikkei (Japan) 16.939 17.234 1,74% -9,46% Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 20.200 20.435 1,17% -6,75% Shanghai Comp. (China) 2.810 2.859 1,75% -19,20% KOSPI (South Korea) 1.971 1.972 0,04% 0,56% ASX 100 Index (Australia) 5.166 5.185 0,37% -2,08% Turkdex (Set. Price) Previous Last Chg. YTD INX30 (APRIL 16) 97,625 98,375 0,77% 10,44% USD (APRIL 16) 2,9144 2,920 0,20% -1,37% EURO (APRIL 16) 3,2585 3,2446 -0,43% 0,60% GOLD (APRIL 16) 118,04 117,19 -0,72% 14,88% Portfolio Inclusio Inclusio Last Chg. BIST Recommend. Date Price Close (%) Relative Garanti Bank 26.01.16 7,11 7,69 8,2% -4,8% Pegasus 04.09.15 17,65 16,83 -4,6% -13,2% 29.01.15 16,15 10,92 -32,4% -23,7% Tupras 05.10.15 75,75 77,55 2,4% -4,9% 09.11.15 19,05 17,20 -9,7% -7,7% 20.01.14 6,79 7,91 16,5% -4,6% Dogus Otomotiv 26.01.16 10,98 11,33 3,2% -9,1% Portfolio Yield (yoy) -14,8% -12,9% Portfolio Yield (mom) 13,1% 0,3%

This document has been prepared by the Equity Research Department of Şeker Invest. The information and data used in this report have been obtained from public sources that are thought to be reliable and complete. However, Şeker Invest does not accept responsibility for any errors and omissions. This document should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell securities herein. This document is to be distributed to qualified emerging market investors only.

Şeker Yatırım Menkul Degerler A.S. - Buyukdere Cad. No:171 Metrocity A Blok Kat 4-5 SISLI /ISTANBUL Tel: (+90) 212 334 33 33 Pbx, Fax: (+90) 212 334 33 34, [email protected]