What Shaped Our World? A Historical Introduction POSC 1020 – Introduction to International Relations
Steven V. Miller
Department of Political Science Puzzle(s) for Today
International cooperation is variable through history. Why?
2/34 Number of Inter-State War Onsets, by Decade The 1910s had the most unique inter-state war onsets (10) of any decade.
10 10
9
8 8
Number of Inter-State Wars 8
7 7
6 6 6
5 5
4 4 4 4
3 3
2 2 2 2
0
1820s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Decade
Data: Correlates of War (Inter-State) War Data (v. 4.0). Temporal Domain: 1816-2007.
3/34 The Percentage of the International System in an Inter-state War, 1816-2007 We observe clear spikes in the 1860s, 1910s, and 1940s, which were particularly violent decades.
50.0%
40.0%
30.0% Percentage of State System in an Inter-state War
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Data: Correlates of War (Inter-State) War Data (v. 4.0) and State System Membership (to 2016). Temporal Domain: 1816-2007. Note: we could use the Gibler-Miller-Little MID data and extend this to 2010 with much better assessments of inter-state war but that wouldn't change the story here.
4/34 Number of Inter-State War Battle Deaths, by Decade Most wars don't claim a lot of fatalities. The two world wars, on the other hand, claimed a lot of lives.
12,500,000 12,101,500
10,000,000
8,966,527 Number of Estimated Battle Deaths
7,500,000
5,902,592
5,000,000
2,500,000
1,264,656 1,068,599 921,023
382,581 507,181 300,000 170,834 188,380 131,000 35,410 23,179 20,685 4,200 82,387 11,175 0
1820s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Decade
Data: Correlates of War (Inter-State) War Data (v. 4.0). Temporal Domain: 1816-2007. Note: Even CoW's most confident estimates are still estimates. Wars with missing fatalities were set at 1,000 (i.e. the minimum operational cutoff).
5/34 Cooperation Through History
Clearly some eras are more peaceful than others.
• The 19th century was more peaceful than the 20th century, although the 1860s was a mess for everyone. • First half of 20th century brought considerable devastation. • Post-World War II era (mostly) brought peace among countries.
• We’ll talk about the problem of civil war and terrorism later.
Why?
• To answer this question, we’ll need to understand how history got us to where we are.
6/34 Figure 1: Conquista de México por Cortés, Unknown Artist, Library of Congress 7/34 Mercantilist Era (1492-1815)
The “world” emerged as a meaningful unit in 1492.
• Portugal and Spain first successfully navigated the world. • England, France, and Netherlands soon followed.
8/34 Mercantilist Era (1492-1815)
Two goals for Europe’s monarchies at the time:
1. Ensure own political and military power.
• In fact, most of these navigation routes were akin to state secrets.
2. Secure access to resources for commercial class allied with monarchy.
• i.e. make key supporters happy.
9/34 What is Mercantilism?
Mercantilism emerged as theme of this era:
• Economic power and military power are equivalent/fungible. • Establish monopolies to control trade, direct wealth to government or government-supported businesses.
• e.g. Dutch East Indies Company, Hudson’s Bay Company
• Drive down imports from countries and drive up its exports (i.e. maintain favorable balance of trade).
10/34 The Pitfalls of Mercantilism
Mercantilism, notwithstanding its regrettably new currency, has numerous pitfalls.
• e.g. the Virginia colony could only sell tobacco to England and only buy manufactured goods from England. • As you’ll learn in intro to economics, this artificially hurt Virginia’s bottom line and artificially helped England’s bottom line.
11/34 The Pitfalls of Mercantilism
States obsessed with converting wealth to power and maintaining favorable balance of trade led to major conflicts.
• Portugal and Spain fought over the New World. • Modern-day Belgium seceded from Spain. • The British challenged and eventually defeated the Spanish armada.
12/34 The Pitfalls of Mercantilism
The Thirty Years War gave way to Treaty of Westphalia. Effects:
• Creation of the modern “state” system as we know it. • Significantly neutered the Church as organizing principle in politics.
Successive wars followed, prominently the Napoleonic Wars, that crystalized Britain as world’s most powerful state.
13/34 Figure 2: It was never quite “pax”, but Pax Britannica was still relatively peaceful 14/34 The Pax Britannica (1815-1914)
General themes from this era:
• “Hundred Years’ Peace” • Emergence of free trade • Organized “gold standard”
15/34 Historical GDP per Capita Data for Select Countries, 1700-1920 Britain's economy was the largest in the world during Pax Britannica, up until World War I, and leading powers began to see heretofore unprecedented growth at this time. GDP per Capita
5,000 Pax Britannica (1815-1914)
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1700 1710 1720 1730 1740 1750 1760 1770 1780 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920
Year
Country France Germany United Kingdom United States
Source: Maddison Historical GDP Data (CRAN: maddison). Values denominated in 1990 USD.
16/34 More Specific Comments About the Pax Britannica
Not all “peace” was peaceful.
• Important security issues concerned revolutionaries/anarchists that threatened nobility, consolidation of Germany and Italy, and Ottoman Empire as “sick man of Europe.”
We have Britain to thank for much of what U.S. would later implement after WWII:
• Free trade followed British industrialist desires and served British political goals and overall welfare.
17/34 More Specific Comments About the Pax Britannica
Imperialism actually went down for a period during the Scramble for Africa.
• Part of the reason: significantly weakened Portugal/Spain. • Emergence of Germany and Italy and a more ambitious Russia, U.S., and Japan changed this.
18/34 Number of Extra-State War Onsets, by Decade Extra-state wars were common in the 19th century have effectively disappeared in the decades after European empires ended as a result of World War II.
22 22
20
18 Number of Extra-State Wars
16 15
14 14
12 12 12 11 11 11
10
8 8 7 7
6 6 5 5
4 4 4 3
2 2 2 1
0
1810s 1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Decade
Data: Correlates of War (Extra-State) War Data (v. 4.0). Temporal Domain: 1816-2007.
19/34 The Percentage of the International System in an Extra-state War, 1816-2007 The spike in unique onsets in the 1890s notwithstanding, the history is of extra-state wars is one of general decline after the War of 1812.
50.0%
40.0%
30.0% Percentage of State System in an Extra-state War
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Data: Correlates of War (Extra-State) War Data (v. 4.0) and State System Membership (to 2016). Temporal Domain: 1816-2007.
20/34 The Thirty Years’ Crisis (1914-1945)
The mechanisms of securing the Pax Britannica started to weaken late in 19th century.
• Major reason: Germany. • Other reasons: weakened Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, rigid, if sometimes overlapping alliance commitments (see: Italy, pre-WWI)
World War I, “the war to end all wars,” had major destabilizing effects on international politics.
21/34 Figure 3: Map of Europe, 1914 22/34 Figure 4: Map of Europe, 1920 23/34 The Thirty Years’ Crisis (1914-1945)
World War I resulted in another post-war concert like the Congress of Vienna to secure the world order. This failed because:
• League of Nations lacked bite on a lot of measures.
• U.S. absence hurt but would not have saved it.
• Germany was sufficiently humiliated and stuck with too big a war debt. • Italy’s territorial ambitions weren’t satisfied from World War I.
The Great Depression brought back many mercantilist policies that’d help make the next war even worse.
24/34 The Cold War (1945-1990)
Briefly, why these two at this time:
• The U.S., blessed by geography and scale, was the only country after WWII that wasn’t bleeding. But: • The USSR was by far the most militarized country in the world and (seriously) could’ve won WWII by itself.
The U.S. was blessed with opportunity to implement numerous institutions in its image.
• e.g. United Nations, Bretton Woods
However, the Soviets had an alternative model.
• Both became suspicious of the other’s intentions.
25/34 Figure 5: Cold War Blocs, 1980
26/34 The Cold War (1945-1990)
Some themes from this era.
• The gold standard ends with “Nixon shock.” It was effectively a victim of the success of the Marshall Plan. • Decolonization, largely driven by the U.S. • World really was black/white (and quite tense!) early into Cold War. • Soviets eventually integrated into U.S. system.
• Their model and institutions lacked legitimacy.
• Emergence of third world, Sino-Soviet split, detente, and soft decline of U.S. after Vietnam.
27/34 Figure 6: The Berlin Wall was the physical manifestation of the Soviet expansionary threat. 28/34 Post Cold-War (1991-Present)
Themes of this era:
• Acceleration of U.S. institutions policies, absent alternatives.
• See: NAFTA, WTO, NATO expansion, etc.
• Explosion of civil wars • New diplomatic challenges (“abandonment”, “entrapment”).
29/34 Number of Intra-State War Onsets, by Decade Consistent with casual observation, the end of the Cold War saw a surge in civil war onsets in the 1990s. The 41 onsets is the most of any decade on record.
42 41
40
38
36 34 34 Number of Intra-State Wars 32 31
30
28
26 24 24 22 22 20 20 20 20
18 17 17 16 16
14 13
12 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7
6 4 4
2 1
0
1810s 1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Decade
Data: Correlates of War (Intra-State) War Data (v. 4.1). Temporal Domain: 1816-2007.
30/34 The Percentage of the International System in an Intra-state War, 1816-2007 It's easy to think of civil war as mostly a post-empire and post-Cold War problem, though that belies important patterns we observe in the 19th century.
50.0%
40.0%
Percentage of State System in an Intra-state War 30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Data: Correlates of War (Intra-State) War Data (v. 4.1) and State System Membership (to 2016). Temporal Domain: 1816-2007.
31/34 Conclusion: Future Challenges
• Limits of U.S. military power after Iraq and Afghanistan • Failure of nation building • Economic globalization • BRICs • The Rise of China • Persistence of poverty in much of the globe • How will international actors address these challenges?
32/34 PSA
For those new to the course:
• Go to http://posc1020.svmiller.com
• Lecture slides there as well.
• Check Canvas too, just in case.
33/34 Table of Contents
Introduction
Cooperation Through History Mercantilist Era (1492-1815) The Pax Britannica (1815-1914) The Thirty Years’ Crisis (1914-1945) The Cold War (1945-1990) Post Cold-War (1991-Present)
Conclusion: Future Challenges
34/34